Risk assessment of infectious disease epidemic based on fuzzy Bayesian network.

The prevention and control of infectious disease epidemic (IDE) is an important task for every country and region. Risk assessment is significant for the prevention and control of IDE. Fuzzy Bayesian networks (FBN) can capture complex causality and uncertainty. The study developed a novel FBN model, integrating grounded theory, interpretive structural model, and expert weight determination algorithm for the risk assessment of IDE. The algorithm is proposed by the authors for expert weighting in fuzzy environment. The proposed FBN model comprehensively takes into account the risk factors and the interaction among them, and quantifies the uncertainty of IDE risk assessment, so as to make the assessment results more reliable. Taking the epidemic situation of COVID-19 in Wuhan as a case, the application of the proposed model is illustrated. And sensitivity analysis is performed to identify the important risk factors of IDE. Moreover, the effectiveness of the model is checked by the three-criterion-based quantitative validation method including variation connection, consistent effect, and cumulative limitation. Results show that the probability of the outbreak of COVID-19 in Wuhan is as high as 82.26%, which is well-matched with the actual situation. "Information transfer mechanism," "coordination and cooperation among various personnel," "population flow," and "ability of quarantine" are key risk factors. The constructed model meets the above three criteria. The application potential and effectiveness of the developed FBN model are demonstrated. The study provides decision support for preventing and controlling IDE.

Determination of Cyazofamid and Its Metabolite in Oily Agricultural Products with HPLC-MS/MS.

A high-performance liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry method was developed for the determination of cyazofamid and its major metabolite 4-Chloro-5-(4-tolyl)-1H-imidazole-2-carbonitrile (CCIM) in oily samples. Samples were extracted with acetonitrile, which contained 1% acetic acid and cleaned-up with C18 and Florisil absorbents. Recoveries ranged from 75.91% to 109.85% with coefficients of variation from 5.14% to 10.69%. The limits of detection (LODs) and the limits of quantification (LOQs) were >0.0020 mg kg-1 and ≤0.0040 mg·kg-1, respectively, which were smaller than maximum residue levels established by Australia for oily samples. The proposed fragmentation pathway of cyazofamid and CCIM were discussed.

Three-stage model based evaluation of local residents' acceptance towards waste-to-energy incineration project under construction: A Chinese perspective.

Incineration is an efficient and economical means of solid waste disposal. And local residents' acceptance has to be acquired for the smooth going of waste-to-energy incineration project (WTEIP). From a Chinese perspective, this paper finds what influence local residents' acceptance towards WTEIP under construction, based on which we rank WTEIPs and figure out the project with the least local residents' acceptance. To achieve this, a three-stage model is developed. Stage 1 involves identifying the criteria based on the expert judgement for local residents' acceptance towards WTEIP under construction. Stage 2 involves the criteria weights determination employing Best Worst-Decision Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory (BWD). BWD incorporates Best Worst Method and Decision Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory which is intended to take the interrelationships among the criteria into account. Stage 3 involves project ranking according to the criteria weights determined by BWD. Sensitivity analysis is conducted to check the effectiveness and robustness of the three-stage model. Results show that perceived risk-free is the most influential criterion of local residents' acceptance towards WTEIP under construction and the three-stage model is reliable and robust. The study is helpful to enhance local residents' acceptance towards WTEIP under construction and provide important reference for decision-makers and policymakers in waste management.

Exploring Factors Influencing Scenarios Evolution of Waste NIMBY Crisis: Analysis of Typical Cases in China.

As the impact factors of the waste Not-In-My-Back Yard (NIMBY) crisis are complex, and the scenario evolution path of it is diverse. Once the crisis is not handled properly, it will bring adverse effects on the construction of waste NIMBY facilities, economic development and social stability. Consequently, based on ground theory, this paper takes the waste NIMBY crisis in China from 2006 to 2019 as typical cases, through coding analysis, scenario evolution factors of waste NIMBY crisis are established. Furtherly, three key scenarios were obtained, namely, external situation (E), situation state (S), emergency management (M), what is more, scenario evolution law of waste NIMBY crisis is revealed. Then, the dynamic Bayesian network theory is used to construct the dynamic scenario evolution network of waste NIMBY crisis. Finally, based on the above models, Xiantao waste NIMBY crisis is taken as a case study, and the dynamic process of scenario evolution network is visually displayed by using Netica. The simulation results show that the scenario evolution network of Xiantao waste NIMBY crisis is basically consistent with the actual incident development process, which confirms the effectiveness and feasibility of the model.

Evaluating the Efficiency of Municipal Solid Waste Management in China.

Poor public health is always associated with the mismanagement of municipal solid waste (MSW). Many cities are besieged by MSW in the world. It is essential to do a good job in MSW management (MSWM). In order to improve the efficiency of MSWM, the Chinese government has intensively implemented relevant policies. There are still few studies on MSWM efficiency in China. The research aims to comprehensively analyze MSWM efficiency, find high-efficiency MSWM policy implementation routes and the breakthrough on improving MSWM efficiency. To measure Chinese MSWM efficiency accurately, this paper introduced the three-stage data envelopment analysis (DEA) model into the research. According to the results of DEA, Fuzzy c-Means algorithm was used to the cluster analysis of 33 typical cities. After eliminating the interference of the external environment and random disturbance, the mean value of MSWM efficiency declined from 0.575 to 0.544. The mean of pure technical efficiency (PTE) was declined from 0.966 to 0.611, while the mean of scale efficiency (SE) increased from 0.600 to 0.907. The PTE of central and northeastern cities was relatively low. The SE of western cities was comparatively high and the efficiency distribution of the eastern region was relatively scattered. In general, MSWM efficiency is low and expected to be improved. Regional differences in MSWM efficiency have been shown. The management effectiveness of eight pilot cities (MSW classification) is affirmative but not that significant. To improve MSWM efficiency, differential management for four types of cities should be carried out.

[Effects of herb therapy for benefiting qi and removing blood stasis on ultrastructure of vascular endothelial cells and vascular smooth muscle cells of uterine endometrium in rabbits with copper intrauterine device].

OBJECTIVE: To observe the effects of herb therapy for benefiting qi and removing blood stasis on ultrastructure of vascular endothelial cells (VECs) and vascular smooth muscle cells (VSMCs) of uterine endometrium in rabbits with copper intrauterine device. METHODS: Fifty-six rabbits were randomly divided into seven groups, which were normal control group, sham-operation group, untreated group, indomethacin-treated group and low-, medium- and high-dose Gonghuan Zhixueling Recipe (GHZXLR)-treated groups. The rabbits in the last five groups were operated with copper IUD insertion and then orally given distilled water, indomethacin and low-, medium- and high-dose GHZXLR respectively for at least one week. Rabbits in the normal control group and sham-operation group were given distilled water orally. The ultrastructure of VECs and VSMCs of uterine endometrium in rabbits was observed by transmission electron microscopy. RESULTS: The morphological changes of VSMCs revealed intracellular edema, organelle disintegration and decrease of organelle amount, or cell atrophy and vacuolar degeneration of mitochondria in the untreated group, and the amount of collagen fibers also increased outside the VSMCs. Local interstitial edema in subendothelial substance and vacuolar degeneration of mitochondria in VECs were both observed. The ultrastructural damages to the mitochondria, Golgi bodies and myofilament of VECs and VSMCs and the intercellular substance in GHZXLR-treated groups were slighter than those in the untreated group, while these damages had no significant differences as compared with those in the indomethacin-treated group. CONCLUSION: The Chinese herb therapy for benefiting qi for removing blood stasis has the protective effect on VECs of uterine endometrium in the rabbits with copper intrauterine device. It appears to be a good treatment for menorrhagia induced by copper IUD insertion.

[Effects of sanqi qiancao recipe on hemorheological parameters of rabbits with copper intrauterine device].

OBJECTIVE: To explore the mechanism of Sanqi Qiancao Recipe (SQR) in treating metrorrhagia caused by copper intrauterine device (IUD) in rabbits and to provide experimental evidence for preventing and treating this disease. METHODS: Fifty-six rabbits were randomly divided into seven groups, which were normal control group, sham-operation group, untreated group, indomethacin-treated group, low-dose SQR-treated group, medium-dose SQR-treated group and high-dose SQR-treated group. Copper IUD insertion was operated in rabbits of the last five groups. Rabbits in the last four groups were treated orally with indomethacin and low-, medium- and high-dose SQR respectively for a week. Rabbits in the untreated group, normal control group and sham-operation group were given distilled water orally. Hematocrit, blood viscosity at low, medium and high shear rate, plasma viscosity and blood sedimentation were examined after treatment. RESULTS: The hematocrit, blood viscosity at low, medium and high shear rate and plasma viscosity were higher in the untreated group than those in the normal control group with significant differences (P<0.01) while those indexes in low-, medium- and high-dose SQR-treated groups were significantly lower than those in the untreated group (P<0.05 or P<0.01). CONCLUSION: SQR can lead to a decrease in blood viscosity and improve the blood flow, which may be one of the mechanisms of SQR in treating metrorrhagia after copper IUD insertion.

[Hemostatic and analgesic effect of Gonghuan Zhixue Tablet on mice].

OBJECTIVE: To explore the hemostatic and analgesic effect of Gonghuan Zhixue Tablet (GHZXT) on mice and to produce experimental evidence for exploiting new drug for endometrorrhagia caused by Cu-intrauterine contraceptive device (Cu-IUD). METHODS: Compared with 6-aminocaproic acid and notoginseng, the effects of GHZXT on clotting and bleeding time of mice with capillary method and severed tail were investigated; and compared with aspirin, the analgesic effects of GHZXT on mice were investigated with hot plate and torsive body method. RESULTS: The clotting time of mice was remarkably shortened with a rising of the dosage of GHZXT and the difference between each therapeutic group and distilled water group was remarkable. As compared with distilled water group, the bleeding time of each dosage group of GHZXT was obviously shortened; and each dosage of GHZXT could prolong the time of pain reaction to hot plate and decrease the degree of torsive body of the mice. CONCLUSION: Pharmacological experiment has proved that GHZXT has evident hemostatic and analgesic function.