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1.
Proc Biol Sci ; 291(2016): 20232361, 2024 Feb 14.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38351802

RESUMO

Reports of fading vole and lemming population cycles and persisting low populations in some parts of the Arctic have raised concerns about the spread of these fundamental changes to tundra food web dynamics. By compiling 24 unique time series of lemming population fluctuations across the circumpolar region, we show that virtually all populations displayed alternating periods of cyclic/non-cyclic fluctuations over the past four decades. Cyclic patterns were detected 55% of the time (n = 649 years pooled across sites) with a median periodicity of 3.7 years, and non-cyclic periods were not more frequent in recent years. Overall, there was an indication for a negative effect of warm spells occurring during the snow onset period of the preceding year on lemming abundance. However, winter duration or early winter climatic conditions did not differ on average between cyclic and non-cyclic periods. Analysis of the time series shows that there is presently no Arctic-wide collapse of lemming cycles, even though cycles have been sporadic at most sites during the last decades. Although non-stationary dynamics appears a common feature of lemming populations also in the past, continued warming in early winter may decrease the frequency of periodic irruptions with negative consequences for tundra ecosystems.


Assuntos
Arvicolinae , Ecossistema , Animais , Dinâmica Populacional , Estações do Ano , Cadeia Alimentar , Regiões Árticas
2.
Proc Biol Sci ; 290(2004): 20231154, 2023 08 09.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37554032

RESUMO

The strength of indirect biotic interactions is difficult to quantify in the wild and can alter community composition. To investigate whether the presence of a prey species affects the population growth rate of another prey species, we quantified predator-mediated interaction strength using a multi-prey mechanistic model of predation and a population matrix model. Models were parametrized using behavioural, demographic and experimental data from a vertebrate community that includes the arctic fox (Vulpes lagopus), a predator feeding on lemmings and eggs of various species such as sandpipers and geese. We show that the positive effects of the goose colony on sandpiper nesting success (due to reduction of search time for sandpiper nests) were outweighed by the negative effect of an increase in fox density. The fox numerical response was driven by changes in home range size. As a result, the net interaction from the presence of geese was negative and could lead to local exclusion of sandpipers. Our study provides a rare empirically based model that integrates mechanistic multi-species functional responses and behavioural processes underlying the predator numerical response. This is an important step forward in our ability to quantify the consequences of predation for community structure and dynamics.


Assuntos
Charadriiformes , Comportamento de Retorno ao Território Vital , Animais , Raposas/fisiologia , Dinâmica Populacional , Gansos/fisiologia , Crescimento Demográfico , Comportamento Predatório/fisiologia , Arvicolinae/fisiologia , Cadeia Alimentar
3.
Oecologia ; 202(2): 211-225, 2023 Jun.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37351629

RESUMO

During the cold arctic winter, small mammals like lemmings seek refuge inside the snowpack to keep warm and they dig tunnels in the basal snow layer, usually formed of a soft depth hoar, to find vegetation on which they feed. The snowpack, however, is a heterogenous medium and lemmings should use habitats where snow properties favor their survival and winter reproduction. We determined the impact of snow physical properties on lemming habitat use and reproduction in winter by sampling their winter nests for 13 years and snow properties for 6 years across 4 different habitats (mesic, riparian, shrubland, and wetland) on Bylot Island in the Canadian High Arctic. We found that lemmings use riparian habitat most intensively because snow accumulates more rapidly, the snowpack is the deepest and temperature of the basal snow layer is the highest in this habitat. However, in the deepest snowpacks, the basal depth hoar layer was denser and less developed than in habitats with shallower snowpacks, and those conditions were negatively related to lemming reproduction in winter. Shrubland appeared a habitat of moderate quality for lemmings as it favored a soft basal snow layer and a deep snowpack compared with mesic and wetland, but snow conditions in this habitat critically depend on weather conditions at the beginning of the winter. With climate change, a hardening of the basal layer of the snowpack and a delay in snow accumulation are expected, which could negatively affect the winter habitat of lemmings and be detrimental to their populations.


Assuntos
Arvicolinae , Neve , Animais , Canadá , Ecossistema , Estações do Ano
4.
Oecologia ; 198(2): 295-306, 2022 Feb.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34657176

RESUMO

Highly mobile predators can show strong numerical responses to pulsed resources, sometimes resulting in irruptions where large numbers of young invade landscapes at a continental scale. High production of young in irruption years may have a strong influence on the population dynamics unless immature survival is reduced compared to non-irruption years. This could occur if subordinate individuals (mainly immatures) are forced into suboptimal habitats due to density-dependent effects in irruption years. To test whether irruptive individuals had lower survival than non-irruptive ones, we combined necropsy results (N = 365) with telemetry (N = 185) from more than 20 years to record timing and causes of mortality in snowy owls (Bubo scandiacus), which irrupt into eastern North America during winter following high breeding output caused by lemming peaks in the Arctic. Mortality was more than four times higher in irruption years than non-irruption years, but only for immatures, and occurred disproportionately in early winter for immatures, but not adults. Mortality was also higher in eastern North America, where owl abundance fluctuates considerably between years, compared to core winter regions of the Arctic and Prairies where populations are more stable. Most mortality was not due to starvation, but rather associated with human activity, especially vehicle collisions. We conclude that immature snowy owls that irrupt into eastern North America are limited by density-dependent factors, such as increased competition forcing individuals to occupy risky human-altered habitats. For highly mobile, irruptive animals, resource pulses may have a limited impact on population dynamics due to low subsequent survival of breeding output during the nonbreeding season.


Assuntos
Aves Predatórias , Estrigiformes , Animais , Ecossistema , Dinâmica Populacional , Estações do Ano
5.
Biol Conserv ; 255: 108968, 2021 Mar.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33518770

RESUMO

Overabundant species can have major impacts on their habitat and induce trophic cascades within ecosystems. In North America, the overabundant greater snow goose (Anser caerulescens atlanticus) has been successfully controlled through special spring hunting regulations since 1999. Hunting is a source of mortality but also of disturbance, which affects the behavior and nutrient storage dynamics of staging snow geese. In 2020, the lockdown imposed by the COVID19 pandemic reduced hunting activity during their migratory stopover in Québec by at least 31%. This provided a unique opportunity to assess the effects of a sudden reduction in hunting disturbance on geese. We used long-term data on body mass combined with movement data from GPS-tracked birds in 2019 and 2020 to assess the effects of the 2020 lockdown on the spring body condition and behavior of greater snow geese. Body condition was higher in 2020 than in all years since the inception of spring hunting in 1999, except for 2019. However, in 2020 geese reached maximal body condition earlier during the staging period than in any other year and reduced by half time spent feeding in highly profitable but risky agricultural habitat in late spring compared to 2019. Although our study was not designed to evaluate the effects of the lockdown, the associated reduction in disturbance in 2020 supports the hypothesis that hunting-related disturbance negatively affects foraging efficiency and body condition in geese. Since spring body condition is related to subsequent breeding success, the lockdown could increase productivity in this overabundant population.

6.
J Anim Ecol ; 89(12): 2934-2945, 2020 12.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32965060

RESUMO

Interspecific competition can play a key role in structuring ecological communities. The Arctic tundra is a low productivity ecosystem supporting simple food webs, but several predators often feed on the same prey species, lemmings, known for their large-amplitude population fluctuations. We examined mechanisms involved in reducing intra-guild competition and allowing coexistence of four avian predators (snowy owls, glaucous gulls, rough-legged hawks and long-tailed jaegers) feeding on a pulsed resource (brown and collared lemmings). We compared the size and species of prey consumed by predators to see if resource partitioning occurred. We also verified if spatial segregation in nesting areas could be another mechanism allowing coexistence. Finally, we tested if the absence of the snowy owl, a dominant and irruptive species, triggered a competitive release on the smallest predator, the jaeger, with respect to prey size and nesting area used. We monitored the breeding of predators and lemming abundance over a 14-year period on Bylot Island, Canada. We mapped their nesting sites and collected regurgitation pellets to recover lemming mandibles, which were used to infer prey species and size. The size of lemmings consumed varied among species with the largest predators consuming the largest lemmings and the smallest predators consuming the smallest lemmings. All predators consumed more collared than brown lemmings compared to their availability although owls and jaegers consumed relatively more brown lemmings compared to gulls and hawks. Jaegers consumed larger lemmings in the absence of owls than in their presence, suggestive of a short-term competitive release. We found moderate to low overlap in nesting areas among predators and no evidence of their expansion in the absence of owls, suggesting that spatial distribution is caused by species-specific habitat preferences. The main mechanism to partition food resources among these avian predators is spatial segregation, and secondarily prey size and species. However, we found evidence that food competition is still present and leads to a niche shift in the smallest predator of the guild. Interspecific competition may thus be a pervasive force in simple, low productivity food webs characterized by pulsed resources.


La compétition interspécifique peut jouer un rôle clé pour structurer les communautés écologiques. La toundra arctique, un écosystème peu productif, est l'hôte d'un réseau trophique simple où plusieurs prédateurs s'alimentent sur les mêmes proies, les lemmings, connus pour leurs cycles d'abondance de grande amplitude. Nous avons étudié les mécanismes impliqués dans la réduction de la compétition intra-guilde permettant la coexistence de quatre espèces de prédateurs aviaires (harfang des neiges, goéland bourgmestre, buse pattue, labbe à longue queue) qui se nourrissent de ressources fluctuantes (lemmings bruns et variables). Nous avons comparé la taille et les espèces des proies consommées par chaque prédateur afin d'évaluer si une ségrégation se produisait. Nous avons aussi vérifié si une ségrégation spatiale dans les aires de nidification permettait la coexistence de ces prédateurs. Finalement, nous avons testé si l'absence de harfangs, une espèce dominante et irruptive, initiait un relâchement de la compétition sur le plus petit prédateur, le labbe, en changeant la taille de ses proies et de son aire de nidification. Nous avons suivi la reproduction des prédateurs et l'abondance des lemmings pendant 14 ans sur l'Île Bylot (Canada). Nous avons cartographié les nids et récolté des pelotes de régurgitation pour mesurer la taille des mandibules de lemmings et inférer la taille et l'espèce consommées. La taille des lemmings consommés variait selon les espèces, les plus grands prédateurs consommant les plus gros lemmings et le plus petits prédateur les plus petits lemmings. Tous les prédateurs consommaient plus de lemmings variables comparativement à leur disponibilité, bien que les harfangs et les labbes consommaient relativement plus de lemmings bruns que les goélands et les buses. Les labbes ont consommé des lemmings plus gros en l'absence de harfangs qu'en leur présence, suggérant un relâchement de la compétition à court-terme. Nous avons trouvé un chevauchement modéré à faible dans les aires de nidification entre les prédateurs et aucune évidence de leur expansion en l'absence de harfangs. Ceci suggère que la distribution spatiale est causée par les préférences d'habitat de chaque espèce. La ségrégation spatiale constitue le principal mécanisme menant au partage de la ressource alimentaire entre les prédateurs aviaires et, secondairement, la taille et les espèces de proies. Cependant, nous avons trouvé des évidences que la compétition alimentaire est toujours présente et conduit à un changement de la niche chez le plus petit prédateur de la guilde. La compétition interspécifique pourrait donc être une force omniprésente dans les réseaux trophiques simples et peu productifs caractérisés par des ressources fluctuantes.


Assuntos
Ecossistema , Tundra , Animais , Regiões Árticas , Arvicolinae , Canadá , Cadeia Alimentar , Dinâmica Populacional , Comportamento Predatório
7.
J Anim Ecol ; 89(3): 704-715, 2020 03.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31538330

RESUMO

Climate change can impact ecosystems by reshaping the dynamics of resource exploitation for predators and their prey. Alterations of these pathways could be especially intense in ecosystems characterized by a simple trophic structure and rapid warming trends, such as in the Arctic. However, quantifying the multiple direct and indirect pathways through which climate change is likely to alter trophic interactions and their relative strength remains a challenge. Here, we aim to identify direct and indirect causal mechanisms driven by climate affecting predator-prey interactions of species sharing a tundra food web. We based our study on relationships between one Arctic predator (Arctic fox) and its two main prey - lemmings (preferred prey) and snow geese (alternate prey) - which are exposed to variable local and regional climatic factors across years. We used a combination of models mapping multiple causal links among key variables derived from a long-term dataset (21 years). We obtained several possible scenarios linking regional climate factors (Arctic oscillations) and local temperature and precipitation to the breeding of species. Our results suggest that both regional and local climate factors have direct and indirect impacts on the breeding of foxes and geese. Local climate showed a positive causal link with goose nesting success, while both regional and local climate displayed contrasted effects on the proportion of fox breeding. We found no impact of climate on lemming abundance. We observed positive relationships between lemming, fox and goose reproduction highlighting numerical and functional responses of fox to the variability of lemming abundance. Our study measures causal links and strength of interactions in a food web, quantifying both numerical response of a predator and apparent interactions between its two main prey. These results improve our understanding of the complex effects of climate on predator-prey interactions and our capacity to anticipate food web response to ongoing climate change.


Les changements climatiques peuvent avoir un impact sur les écosystèmes au travers des modifications de la dynamique d'exploitation des ressources par les prédateurs et leurs proies. Dans le cas de l'Arctique, caractérisée par un réseau trophique simple et une sensibilité marquée au réchauffement climatique, l'altération de ces relations trophiques pourrait être particulièrement importante. Cependant, la quantification des nombreux liens directs et indirects à travers lesquels les changements climatiques peuvent affecter les interactions trophiques demeure un défi. Notre objectif est d'identifier les mécanismes causaux directs et indirects, sous-tendus par le climat, affectant les interactions prédateur-proie au sein d'un réseau trophique au cœur de la toundra. Notre étude se base sur les relations entre un prédateur (renard arctique) et ses deux proies principales -le lemming (proie préférée) et la grande oie des neiges (proie alternative)- et qui subissent un accroissement des précipitations et des températures au travers des années. Nous avons utilisé une combinaison de modèles illustrant les liens causaux multiples entre les variables clés issues d'une base de données à long-terme (21 ans). Nous avons obtenu plusieurs scénarios possibles reliant les facteurs climatiques régionaux (Oscillation Arctique) et les températures et précipitations locales à la reproduction de nos 3 espèces. Nos résultats suggèrent que les facteurs climatiques régionaux et locaux présentent des impacts directs et indirects sur la reproduction du renard arctique et de l'oie des neiges. Le climat local présente un lien causal positif avec le succès de nidification de l'oie, alors que le climat local et régional démontrent un effet contrasté sur la proportion de renard en reproduction. Aucune relation entre les facteurs climatiques et l'abondance des lemmings n'a été trouvée. Nous avons observé des liens causaux positifs entre la reproduction du lemming, du renard et de l'oie, mettant en évidence les réponses numériques et fonctionnelles du renard arctique face à la variabilité de l'abondance de lemming. Notre étude est une des premières à mesurer les liens causaux et les forces d'interaction entre les espèces partageant un même réseau trophique, quantifiant ainsi la réponse numérique du prédateur et les interactions apparentes entre ses proies principales. Ces résultats améliorent notre compréhension des effets complexes du climat sur les interactions prédateur-proie et notre capacité à anticiper la réponse des réseaux trophiques aux changements climatiques en cours.


Assuntos
Ecossistema , Tundra , Animais , Regiões Árticas , Arvicolinae , Cadeia Alimentar , Dinâmica Populacional
8.
Inorg Chem ; 59(9): 5929-5938, 2020 May 04.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32285666

RESUMO

Two polytypes of the new oxyvanadate matrix La7O6(VO4)3 were identified and deeply characterized. The crystal structure of the α-polytype was solved using a combination of precession electron diffraction and powder X-ray diffraction (XRD) techniques. It crystallizes in a monoclinic unit cell with space group P21, a = 13.0148(3) Å, b = 19.1566(5) Å, c = 7.0764(17) Å, and ß = 99.87(1)°. Its structure is built upon [La7O6]9+ polycationic units at the origin of a porous 3D network, evidencing rectangular channels filled by isolated VO4 tetrahedra. An in situ high-temperature XRD study highlights a number of complex phase transitions assorted with the existence of a ß-polytype also refined in a monoclinic unit cell, space group P21/n, a = 13.0713(4) Å, b = 18.1835(6) Å, c = 7.1382(2) Å, and ß = 97.31(1)°. Thus, during the transitions, while the polycationic networks are almost identical, the vanadate's geometry is largely modified. The use of Eu3+ and Sm3+ at different concentrations in the host lattice is possible using solid-state techniques. The photoluminescence (PL), PL excitation (PLE) spectra, and luminescence decay times were recorded and discussed. The phosphors present an emission light, being bright and reddish orange after excitation under UV. This is mainly due to the V-O band and f-f transitions. Whatever the studied polytype, the final luminescence properties are retained during the heating/cooling process.

9.
Oecologia ; 193(3): 557-569, 2020 Jul.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32596799

RESUMO

As top or mesopredators, carnivores play a key role in food webs. Their survival and reproduction are usually thought to be influenced by prey availability. However, simultaneous monitoring of prey and predators is difficult, making it challenging to evaluate the impacts of prey on carnivores' demography. Using 13 years of field data on arctic foxes Vulpes lagopus in the Canadian High Arctic and a capture-recapture multi-event statistical approach, we investigated the hypothesis that increases in lemming abundance (a cyclic and unpredictable food source) and goose colony proximity (a stable but spatially and temporally limited food source) would be associated with increased apparent survival and reproduction probabilities of adults. Adult apparent survival varied greatly across years (0.13-1.00) but was neither affected by lemming nor goose variations in abundance. However, reproduction probabilities were strongly influenced by both lemming abundance and access to the goose colony. A fox breeding in the best conditions of food availability (year of high lemming density inside the goose colony) had a reproduction probability four times higher than one experiencing the worst conditions (year of low lemming density outside the goose colony). Breeding status of individuals also played a role, with breeders having a 10-20% higher probability of survival and 30% higher probability of reproduction the following year than non-breeders. As the Arctic ecosystem changes due to increased temperatures and species ranges, this study will allow better predictions of predator responses to management or environmental changes and a better understanding of ecosystem functioning.


Assuntos
Ecossistema , Raposas , Animais , Regiões Árticas , Canadá , Cadeia Alimentar , Dinâmica Populacional
10.
Philos Trans A Math Phys Eng Sci ; 378(2181): 20190354, 2020 Oct 02.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32862818

RESUMO

Models incorporating seasonality are necessary to fully assess the impact of global warming on Arctic communities. Seasonal migrations are a key component of Arctic food webs that still elude current theories predicting a single community equilibrium. We develop a multi-season model of predator-prey dynamics using a hybrid dynamical systems framework applied to a simplified tundra food web (lemming-fox-goose-owl). Hybrid systems models can accommodate multiple equilibria, which is a basic requirement for modelling food webs whose topology changes with season. We demonstrate that our model can generate multi-annual cycling in lemming dynamics, solely from a combined effect of seasonality and state-dependent behaviour. We compare our multi-season model to a static model of the predator-prey community dynamics and study the interactions between species. Interestingly, including seasonality reveals indirect interactions between migrants and residents not captured by the static model. Further, we find that the direction and magnitude of interactions between two species are not necessarily accurate using only summer time-series. Our study demonstrates the need for the development of multi-season models and provides the tools to analyse them. Integrating seasonality in food web modelling is a vital step to improve predictions about the impacts of climate change on ecosystem functioning. This article is part of the theme issue 'The changing Arctic Ocean: consequences for biological communities, biogeochemical processes and ecosystem functioning'.


Assuntos
Migração Animal , Cadeia Alimentar , Modelos Biológicos , Tundra , Animais , Regiões Árticas , Arvicolinae , Biomassa , Raposas , Gansos , Aquecimento Global , Nunavut , Estações do Ano , Estrigiformes
11.
Photochem Photobiol Sci ; 18(4): 912-919, 2019 Apr 10.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-30656349

RESUMO

Ilmenite-rich black sands from an alluvial deposit of Barbacoas (Nariño, Colombia) were used as a natural source aiming to obtain a low-cost and highly available photocatalyst. Mineral concentrates were obtained by gravimetric concentration in a Wilfley table (deck tilt angle: 11-14°) followed by dry magnetic or wet electromagnetic separation. Afterwards, the particle size was manually reduced down to -325 mesh. Rietveld refinements using X-ray diffraction data showed that the highest purity achieved was 93.46% of ilmenite (FeTiO3). Scanning electron microscopy coupled with energy dispersive X-ray spectroscopy revealed a polyhedral morphology with an average grain size of 1.33-2.27 µm, granular inclusions of aluminosilicates and appreciable quantities of manganese. The band-gap values determined by UV-Vis diffuse reflectance spectroscopy were underestimated compared to those reported in the literature, given the impurities in the samples and their optical behavior. Photoluminescence experiments provided a band-gap of 2.68 eV. The photo-oxidative and photo-reductive capabilities of the concentrates were evaluated in the degradation of methyl orange in aqueous solution under UV irradiation. 99% of discoloration was achieved after 50 min for oxidation and after 20 min for reduction, showing the potential of ilmenite-rich concentrates as photocatalysts.

12.
Oecologia ; 187(3): 657-666, 2018 07.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-29651661

RESUMO

Non-consumptive effects of predation have rarely been assessed in wildlife populations even though their impact could be as important as lethal effects. Reproduction of individuals is one of the most important demographic parameters that could be affected by predator-induced stress, which in turn can have important consequences on population dynamics. We studied non-consumptive effects of predation on the reproductive activity (i.e., mating and fertilization) of a cyclic population of brown lemmings exposed to intense summer predation in the Canadian High Arctic. Lemmings were live-trapped, their reproductive activity (i.e., testes visible in males, pregnancy/lactation in females) assessed, and predators were monitored during the summers of 2014 and 2015 within a 9 ha predator-reduction exclosure delimited by a fence and covered by a net, and on an 11 ha control area. Stress levels were quantified non-invasively with fecal corticosterone metabolites (FCM). We found that FCM levels of lemmings captured outside the predator exclosure (n = 50) were 1.6 times higher than inside (n = 51). The proportion of pregnant/lactating adult females did not differ between the two areas, nor did the proportion of adult scrotal males. We found that lemmings showed physiological stress reactions due to high predation risk, but had no sign of reduced mating activity or fertility. Thus, our results do not support the hypothesis of reproductive suppression by predator-induced stress.


Assuntos
Arvicolinae , Lactação , Animais , Regiões Árticas , Canadá , Feminino , Masculino , Dinâmica Populacional , Comportamento Predatório , Gravidez
13.
Inorg Chem ; 56(14): 8547-8553, 2017 Jul 17.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-28665129

RESUMO

Topochemical modification methods for solids have shown great potential in generating metastable structures inaccessible through classical synthetic routes. Here, we present the enhanced topotactic reduction of the multiferroic compound YMnO3. At moderate temperature in ammonia flow, the most reduced YMnO3-δ (δ = 0.5) phase could be stabilized. XRD, PND, and HREM results show that phase separation occurs into two intimately intergrown layered sublattices with nominal compositions ∞[YMn2+O2+x](1-2x)+ and ∞[YMn2+O3-x](1-2x)- containing versatile Mn2+ coordinations. The former sublattice shows original AA stacking between Mn layers, while AB stacking in the latter results from oxygen removal from the parent YMnO3 crystal structure.

14.
Proc Biol Sci ; 283(1845)2016 12 28.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-28003456

RESUMO

The science of complex systems is increasingly asked to forecast the consequences of climate change. As a result, scientists are now engaged in making predictions about an uncertain future, which entails the efficient communication of this uncertainty. Here we show the benefits of hierarchically decomposing the uncertainty in predicted changes in animal population size into its components due to structural uncertainty in climate scenarios (greenhouse gas emissions and global circulation models), structural uncertainty in the demographic model, climatic stochasticity, environmental stochasticity unexplained by climate-demographic trait relationships, and sampling variance in demographic parameter estimates. We quantify components of uncertainty surrounding the future abundance of a migratory bird, the greater snow goose (Chen caeruslescens atlantica), using a process-based demographic model covering their full annual cycle. Our model predicts a slow population increase but with a large prediction uncertainty. As expected from theoretical variance decomposition rules, the contribution of sampling variance to prediction uncertainty rapidly overcomes that of process variance and dominates. Among the sources of process variance, uncertainty in the climate scenarios contributed less than 3% of the total prediction variance over a 40-year period, much less than environmental stochasticity. Our study exemplifies opportunities to improve the forecasting of complex systems using long-term studies and the challenges inherent to predicting the future of stochastic systems.


Assuntos
Anseriformes/fisiologia , Mudança Climática , Modelos Teóricos , Animais , Densidade Demográfica , Dinâmica Populacional , Incerteza
15.
Ecology ; 97(11): 3231-3241, 2016 11.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-27870031

RESUMO

It is generally recognized that delayed density-dependence is responsible for cyclic population dynamics. However, it is still uncertain whether a single factor can explain why some rodent populations fluctuate according to a 3-4 yr periodicity. There is increasing evidence that predation may play a role in lemming population cycles, although this effect may vary seasonally. To address this issue, we conducted an experiment where we built a large exclosure (9 ha) to protect brown lemmings (Lemmus trimucronatus) from avian and terrestrial predators. We tested the hypothesis that predation is a limiting factor for lemmings by measuring the demographic consequences of a predator reduction during the growth and peak phases of the cycle. We assessed summer (capture-mark-recapture methods) and winter (winter nest sampling) lemming demography on two grids located on Bylot Island, Nunavut, Canada from 2008 to 2015. The predator exclosure became fully effective in July 2013, allowing us to compare demography between the control and experimental grids before and during the treatment. Lemming abundance, survival and proportion of juveniles were similar between the two grids before the treatment. During the predator-reduction period, summer densities were on average 1.9× higher inside the experimental grid than the control and this effect was greatest for adult females and juveniles (densities 2.4× and 3.4× higher, respectively). Summer survival was 1.6× higher on the experimental grid than the control whereas body mass and proportion of juveniles were also slightly higher. Winter nest densities remained high inside the predator reduction grid following high summer abundance, but declined on the control grid. These results confirm that predation limits lemming population growth during the summer due to its negative impact on survival. However, it is possible that in winter, predation may interact with other factors affecting reproduction and ultimately population cycles.


Assuntos
Arvicolinae/fisiologia , Aves , Raposas , Mustelidae , Comportamento Predatório , Animais , Dinâmica Populacional , Fatores de Tempo
16.
J Prosthodont ; 25(7): 544-549, 2016 Oct.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-26288325

RESUMO

PURPOSE: To describe the pattern of partial removable dental prosthesis (PRDP) designs over a 30-year period in a cohort of patients from the Université de Montréal, Faculty of Dentistry and to examine the effect of this design in PRDP complaints and the required treatment in a subsample of the patients' cohort. MATERIALS AND METHODS: In this retrospective descriptive study, 1380 PRDP laboratory prescriptions (1980-2009) and 131 PRDP clinical complaint forms (2006-2008) from the archives of the undergraduate prosthodontics clinic of Université de Montréal were selected. Data on type of PRDPs, design, PRDP-related complaints, and the need for treatment were collected. Descriptive statistics and bivariate statistical analyses were conducted. RESULTS: U-shaped (54%) and lingual plate (94%) were the most common major connectors used in the maxillary and mandibular arch, respectively. In 95% of laboratory prescriptions, circumferential clasp was the design for the retainers. Fracture of PRDP components was the most common (41%) complaint. Most of the complaints (68%) were made by PRDP wearers having natural teeth in the opposing arch. There was a significant relationship between fracture of PRDP components and having opposing natural teeth (p = 0.002). Seventy-three percent of PRDP-related complaints were manageable only by minor treatments such as repair, readjustments, and oral hygiene instructions. CONCLUSION: Changes in the design of PRDPs were noticeable at the Université de Montréal since 1980, but there has been little change in the last 20 years. Biomechanical concepts and optimum hygiene were the basic elements in the design of RDPs in this university-based dental school setting. The majority of the complaints were treated by minor treatments.


Assuntos
Prótese Parcial Removível , Faculdades de Odontologia , Seguimentos , Humanos , Higiene Bucal , Estudos Retrospectivos , Universidades
17.
Glob Chang Biol ; 21(12): 4364-76, 2015 Dec.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-26235037

RESUMO

In highly seasonal environments, timing of breeding of organisms is typically set to coincide with the period of highest resource availability. However, breeding phenology may not change at a rate sufficient to keep up with rapid changes in the environment in the wake of climate change. The lack of synchrony between the phenology of consumers and that of their resources can lead to a phenomenon called trophic mismatch, which may have important consequences on the reproductive success of herbivores. We analyzed long-term data (1991-2010) on climate, plant phenology and the reproduction of a long-distance Arctic migrant, the greater snow goose (Chen caerulescens atlantica), in order to examine the effects of mismatched reproduction on the growth of young. We found that geese are only partially able to adjust their breeding phenology to compensate for annual changes in the timing of high-quality food plants, leading to mismatches of up to 20 days between the two. The peak of nitrogen concentration in plants, an index of their nutritive quality for goslings, occurred earlier in warm springs with an early snow melt. Likewise, mismatch between hatch dates of young and date of peak nitrogen was more important in years with early snow melt. Gosling body mass and structural size at fledging was reduced when trophic mismatch was high, particularly when the difference between date of peak nitrogen concentration and hatching was >9 days. Our results support the hypothesis that trophic mismatch can negatively affect the fitness of Arctic herbivores and that this is likely to be exacerbated by rising global temperatures.


Assuntos
Mudança Climática , Dieta , Gansos/fisiologia , Reprodução , Animais , Animais Selvagens/crescimento & desenvolvimento , Animais Selvagens/fisiologia , Regiões Árticas , Gansos/crescimento & desenvolvimento , Nitrogênio/metabolismo , Nunavut , Plantas/metabolismo , Estações do Ano
18.
J Anim Ecol ; 84(5): 1412-22, 2015 Sep.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-25939755

RESUMO

1. The causes of cyclical fluctuations in animal populations remain a controversial topic in ecology. Food limitation and predation are two leading hypotheses to explain small mammal population dynamics in northern environments. We documented the seasonal timing of the decline phases and demographic parameters (survival and reproduction) associated with population changes in lemmings, allowing us to evaluate some predictions from these two hypotheses. 2. We studied the demography of brown lemmings (Lemmus trimucronatus), a species showing 3- to 4-year population cycles in the Canadian Arctic, by combining capture-mark-recapture analysis of summer live-trapping with monitoring of winter nests over a 10-year period. We also examined the effects of some weather variables on survival. 3. We found that population declines after a peak occurred between the summer and winter period and not during the winter. During the summer, population growth was driven by change in survival, but not in fecundity or proportion of juveniles, whereas in winter population growth was driven by changes in late summer and winter reproduction. 4. We did not find evidence for direct density dependence on summer demographic parameters, though our analysis was constrained by the paucity of data during the low phase. Body mass, however, was highest in peak years. 5. Weather effects were detected only in early summer when lemming survival was positively related to snow depth at the onset of melt but negatively related to rainfall. 6. Our results show that high mortality causes population declines of lemmings during summer and fall, which suggests that predation is sufficient to cause population crashes, whereas high winter fecundity is the primary factor leading to population irruptions. The positive association between snow depth and early summer survival may be due to the protective cover offered by snow against predators. It is still unclear why reproduction remains low during the low phase.


Assuntos
Arvicolinae/fisiologia , Fertilidade , Tempo (Meteorologia) , Animais , Regiões Árticas , Demografia , Feminino , Masculino , Nunavut , Dinâmica Populacional , Estações do Ano
19.
J Anim Ecol ; 83(6): 1322-33, 2014 Nov.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-24724860

RESUMO

Understanding how climate change will affect animal population dynamics remains a major challenge, especially in long-distant migrants exposed to different climatic regimes throughout their annual cycle. We evaluated the effect of temperature throughout the annual cycle on demographic parameters (age-specific survival and recruitment, breeding propensity and fecundity) of the greater snow goose (Chen caerulescens atlantica L.), an arctic-nesting species. As this is a hunted species, we used the theory of exploited populations to estimate hunting mortality separately from natural mortality in order to evaluate climatic effects only on the latter form of mortality. Our analysis was based on a 22-year marking study (n = 27,150 females) and included live recaptures at the breeding colony and dead recoveries from hunters. We tested the effect of climatic covariates by applying a procedure that accounts for unexplained environmental variation in the demographic parameter to a multistate capture-mark-recapture recruitment model. Breeding propensity, clutch size and hatching probability all increased with high temperatures on the breeding grounds. First-year survival to natural causes of mortality increased when temperature was high at the end of the summer, whereas adult survival was not affected by temperature. On the contrary, accession to reproduction decreased with warmer climatic conditions during the non-breeding season. Survival was strongly negatively related to hunting mortality in adults, as expected, but not in first-year birds, which suggests the possibility of compensation between natural and hunting mortality in the latter group. We show that events occurring both at and away from the breeding ground can affect the demography of migratory birds, either directly or through carryover effects, and sometimes in opposite ways. This highlights the need to account for the whole life cycle of an animal when attempting to project the response of populations to future climatic changes.


Assuntos
Clima , Gansos/fisiologia , Reprodução , Animais , Mudança Climática , Feminino , Masculino , Modelos Biológicos , Nunavut , Dinâmica Populacional , Estações do Ano
20.
Ecol Evol ; 14(4): e11272, 2024 Apr.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38665892

RESUMO

Arctic ecosystems are undergoing rapid changes, including increasing disturbance by herbivore populations, which can affect plant species coexistence and community assemblages. Although the significance of mosses in Arctic wetlands is well recognized, the long-term influence of medium-sized herbivores on the composition of moss communities has received limited attention. We used data from a long-term (25 years) Greater Snow Goose (Anser caerulescens atlanticus) exclusion experiment in Arctic tundra wetlands to assess changes in the composition of moss communities at multiple spatial scales (cell, 4 cm2; quadrat, 100 cm2; exclosure, 16 m2). We investigated how snow goose grazing and grubbing can alter the composition of the moss community by measuring changes in alpha and beta diversity, as well as in the strength of plant interspecific interactions between moss species. Our results indicate that goose foraging significantly increased species diversity (richness, evenness, and inverse Simpson index) of moss communities at the cell and quadrat scales but not the exclosure scale. Goose foraging reduced the dissimilarity (beta diversity) of moss communities at all three scales, mainly due to decreased species turnover. Furthermore, goose foraging increased positive interaction between moss species pairs. These findings emphasize the critical role of geese in promoting moss species coexistence and increasing homogeneity in Arctic wetlands. This study illustrates how top-down regulation by herbivores can alter plant communities in Arctic wetlands and highlights the importance of considering herbivores when examining the response of Arctic plant biodiversity to future climate change.

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