Home-based HPV self-sampling improves participation by never-screened and under-screened women: Results from a large randomized trial (iPap) in Australia.

We conducted a randomized controlled trial to determine whether HPV self-sampling increases participation in cervical screening by never- and under-screened (not screened in past 5 years) women when compared with a reminder letter for a Pap test. Never- or under-screened Victorian women aged 30-69 years, not pregnant and with no prior hysterectomy were eligible. Within each stratum (never-screened and under-screened), we randomly allocated 7,140 women to self-sampling and 1,020 to Pap test reminders. The self-sampling kit comprised a nylon tipped flocked swab enclosed in a dry plastic tube. The primary outcome was participation, as indicated by returning a swab or undergoing a Pap test; the secondary outcome, for women in the self-sampling arm with a positive HPV test, was undergoing appropriate clinical investigation. The Roche Cobas® 4800 test was used to measure presence of HPV DNA. Participation was higher for the self-sampling arm: 20.3 versus 6.0% for never-screened women (absolute difference 14.4%, 95% CI: 12.6-16.1%, p < 0.001) and 11.5 versus 6.4% for under-screened women (difference 5.1%, 95% CI: 3.4-6.8%, p < 0.001). Of the 1,649 women who returned a swab, 45 (2.7%) were positive for HPV16/18 and 95 (5.8%) were positive for other high-risk HPV types. Within 6 months, 28 (62.2%) women positive for HPV16/18 had colposcopy as recommended and nine (20%) had cytology only. Of women positive for other high-risk HPV types, 78 (82.1%) had a Pap test as recommended. HPV self-sampling improves participation in cervical screening for never- and under-screened women and most women with HPV detected have appropriate clinical investigation.

Women's experience with home-based self-sampling for human papillomavirus testing.

BACKGROUND: Increasing cervical screening coverage by reaching inadequately screened groups is essential for improving the effectiveness of cervical screening programs. Offering HPV self-sampling to women who are never or under-screened can improve screening participation, however participation varies widely between settings. Information on women's experience with self-sampling and preferences for future self-sampling screening is essential for programs to optimize participation. METHODS: The survey was conducted as part of a larger trial ("iPap") investigating the effect of HPV self-sampling on participation of never and under-screened women in Victoria, Australia. Questionnaires were mailed to a) most women who participated in the self-sampling to document their experience with and preference for self-sampling in future, and b) a sample of the women who did not participate asking reasons for non-participation and suggestions for enabling participation. Reasons for not having a previous Pap test were also explored. RESULTS: About half the women who collected a self sample for the iPap trial returned the subsequent questionnaire (746/1521). Common reasons for not having cervical screening were that having Pap test performed by a doctor was embarrassing (18 %), not having the time (14 %), or that a Pap test was painful and uncomfortable (11 %). Most (94 %) found the home-based self-sampling less embarrassing, less uncomfortable (90 %) and more convenient (98%) compared with their last Pap test experience (if they had one); however, many were unsure about the test accuracy (57 %). Women who self-sampled thought the instructions were clear (98 %), it was easy to use the swab (95 %), and were generally confident that they did the test correctly (81 %). Most preferred to take the self-sample at home in the future (88 %) because it was simple and did not require a doctor's appointment. Few women (126/1946, 7 %) who did not return a self-sample in the iPap trial returned the questionnaire. Their main reason for not screening was having had a hysterectomy. CONCLUSIONS: Home-based self-sampling can overcome emotional and practical barriers to Pap test and increase participation in cervical screening despite some women's concerns about test accuracy. Mailing to eligible women and assuring women about test accuracy could further optimize participation in screening.

High-grade cervical abnormalities and cervical cancer in women following a negative Pap smear with and without an endocervical component: a cohort study with 10 years of follow-up.

The proportion of Pap smears containing an endocervical component (ECC) has been declining in Australia. Given that ECC negative (ECC-) smears may be associated with reduced sensitivity, we undertook a retrospective cohort study to estimate rates of histologically confirmed high-grade cervical abnormality (HGA) and cancer in women with negative Pap smears with and without an ECC. Women 18-69 years with at least two Pap smears between 1 January 2001 and 31 December 2010 with the first smear in that period (index smear) showing no abnormality were eligible. Follow-up ended at date of the first abnormal smear, date of histological diagnosis, date of hysterectomy, date of death, or 31 December 2010, whichever came first. ECC status was treated as a time varying exposure. Follow-up was split at each smear after the index smear. Poisson regression was used to estimate adjusted incidence rates and incidence rate ratios (IRR) by ECC status. The incidence rate of histologically confirmed HGA was significantly lower following ECC- smears than after ECC+ smears (adjusted IRR: 0.69, 95%Confidence Interval (CI) 0.62-0.77), particularly at older ages (interaction between ECC status and age, p = 0.001). In contrast, the overall rate of invasive cancer was not significantly different after ECC- than after ECC+ smears (IRR: 1.27, 95%CI 0.90-1.77). In conclusion, women had a lower rate of confirmed HGA and no significant increase in the rate of invasive cervical cancer following ECC- smears. This study does not support differential (accelerated) follow-up in women with a negative smear without an endocervical component.

Rationale and design of the iPap trial: a randomized controlled trial of home-based HPV self-sampling for improving participation in cervical screening by never- and under-screened women in Australia.

BACKGROUND: Organized screening based on Pap tests has substantially reduced deaths from cervical cancer in many countries, including Australia. However, the impact of the program depends upon the degree to which women participate. A new method of screening, testing for human papillomavirus (HPV) DNA to detect the virus that causes cervical cancer, has recently become available. Because women can collect their own samples for this test at home, it has the potential to overcome some of the barriers to Pap tests. The iPap trial will evaluate whether mailing an HPV self-sampling kit increases participation by never- and under-screened women within a cervical screening program. METHODS/DESIGN: The iPap trial is a parallel randomized controlled, open label, trial. Participants will be Victorian women age 30-69 years, for whom there is either no record on the Victorian Cervical Cytology Registry (VCCR) of a Pap test (never-screened) or the last recorded Pap test was between five to fifteen years ago (under-screened). Enrolment information from the Victorian Electoral Commission will be linked to the VCCR to determine the never-screened women. Variables that will be used for record linkage include full name, address and date of birth. Never- and under-screened women will be randomly allocated to either receive an invitation letter with an HPV self-sampling kit or a reminder letter to attend for a Pap test, which is standard practice for women overdue for a test in Victoria. All resources have been focus group tested. The primary outcome will be the proportion of women who participate, by returning an HPV self-sampling kit for women in the self-sampling arm, and notification of a Pap test result to the Registry for women in the Pap test arm at 3 and 6 months after mailout. The most important secondary outcome is the proportion of test-positive women who undergo further investigations at 6 and 12 months after mailout of results. DISCUSSION: The iPap trial will provide strong evidence about whether HPV self-sampling could be used in Australia to improve participation in cervical screening for never-and under-screened women. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ANZCTR Identifier: ACTRN12613001104741; UTN: U1111-1148-3885.

Cervical screening rates for women vaccinated against human papillomavirus.

OBJECTIVE: To compare cervical screening rates for women vaccinated with a quadrivalent human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine with those for unvaccinated women, to address concerns that vaccinated women may not be participating in cervical screening. DESIGN, SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: Cross-sectional analysis of linked data from the Victorian Cervical Cytology Registry and the National HPV Vaccination Program Register for 20-29-year-old women in Victoria, Australia, for the period 1 January 2009 to 31 December 2011. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Screening participation rates for vaccinated and unvaccinated women. RESULTS: Participation in cervical screening during the 2-year period 2010-2011 was significantly lower in 20-24-year-old vaccinated women compared with unvaccinated women of the same age (37.6% v 47.7%, a 10.1 percentage point difference [95% CI, 9.7-10.6]; P < 0.001) and significantly lower in 25-29-year-old vaccinated women compared with unvaccinated women of the same age (45.2% v 58.7%, a 13.5 percentage point difference [95% CI, 13.1%-13.9%]; P < 0.001). Similar results were observed for participation during the 3-year period 2009-2011. CONCLUSIONS: Despite education messages provided to young women, our results suggest that vaccinated women are being screened at lower rates than unvaccinated women in Australia. While some degree of undermatching of women in the study may have occurred, this cannot wholly explain our findings. Effective implementation of Individual Healthcare Identifiers to health records, including registry records, is needed to prevent potential undermatching of individuals in future linkage studies. In the meantime, efforts to increase participation in cervical screening by vaccinated women are needed.

Impact of a population-based HPV vaccination program on cervical abnormalities: a data linkage study.

BACKGROUND: Australia was one of the first countries to introduce a publicly funded national human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination program that commenced in April 2007, using the quadrivalent HPV vaccine targeting 12- to 13-year-old girls on an ongoing basis. Two-year catch-up programs were offered to 14- to 17- year-old girls in schools and 18- to 26-year-old women in community-based settings. We present data from the school-based program on population-level vaccine effectiveness against cervical abnormalities in Victoria, Australia. METHODS: Data for women age-eligible for the HPV vaccination program were linked between the Victorian Cervical Cytology Registry and the National HPV Vaccination Program Register to create a cohort of screening women who were either vaccinated or unvaccinated. Entry into the cohort was 1 April 2007 or at first Pap test for women not already screening. Vaccine effectiveness (VE) and hazard ratios (HR) for cervical abnormalities by vaccination status between 1 April 2007 and 31 December 2011 were calculated using proportional hazards regression. RESULTS: The study included 14,085 unvaccinated and 24,871 vaccinated women attending screening who were eligible for vaccination at school, 85.0% of whom had received three doses. Detection rates of histologically confirmed high-grade (HG) cervical abnormalities and high-grade cytology (HGC) were significantly lower for vaccinated women (any dose) (HG 4.8 per 1,000 person-years, HGC 11.9 per 1,000 person-years) compared with unvaccinated women (HG 6.4 per 1,000 person-years, HGC 15.3 per 1,000 person-years) HR 0.72 (95% CI 0.58 to 0.91) and HR 0.75 (95% CI 0.65 to 0.87), respectively. The HR for low-grade (LG) cytological abnormalities was 0.76 (95% CI 0.72 to 0.80). VE adjusted a priori for age at first screening, socioeconomic status and remoteness index, for women who were completely vaccinated, was greatest for CIN3+/AIS at 47.5% (95% CI 22.7 to 64.4) and 36.4% (95% CI 9.8 to 55.1) for women who received any dose of vaccine, and was negatively associated with age. For women who received only one or two doses of vaccine, HRs for HG histology were not significantly different from 1.0, although the number of outcomes was small. CONCLUSION: A population-based HPV vaccination program in schools significantly reduced cervical abnormalities for vaccinated women within five years of implementation, with the greatest vaccine effectiveness observed for the youngest women.

Measuring effectiveness of the cervical cancer vaccine in an Australian setting (the VACCINE study).

BACKGROUND: The quadrivalent human papillomavirus vaccine has been provided in Australia through the National Human Papillomavirus Vaccination Program since April 2007. National registry data demonstrates good coverage of the vaccine, with 73% of school-aged girls having received all three doses. To evaluate the effectiveness of the program, we propose a two-pronged approach. In one (sub study A), the prevalence of the vaccine-targeted human papillomavirus genotypes in a population cohort is being estimated, and will be analysed in relation to vaccination status, cervical cytology screening status, demographic, social, behavioural, medical and clinical factors. In sub study B, the distribution of human papillomavirus genotypes detected in high grade cervical intraepithelial neoplastic lesions from vaccine eligible women is being assessed. METHODS/DESIGN: Sub Study A involves the recruitment of 1569 women aged 18-25, residing in Victoria, Australia, through Facebook advertising. Women who are sexually active are being asked to provide a self-collected vaginal swab, collected at home and posted into the study centre, where human papillomavirus DNA detection and genotyping is performed. Participants also complete an online questionnaire regarding sexual history, experience with, knowledge of, and attitudes towards human papillomavirus, the human papillomavirus vaccine, and cervical screening.Sub Study B will involve the collection of 500 cervical biopsies, positively identified as containing high grade cervical intraepithelial neoplastic lesions and/or adenocarcinoma in situ. Five serial sections are being taken from each case: sections 1 and 5 are being assessed to confirm the presence of the high grade cervical intraepithelial neoplastic lesions or adenocarcinoma in situ; human papillomavirus genotyping is performed on sections 2 and 3; single lesions are excised from section 4 using laser capture microdissection to specifically define causality of a human papillomavirus genotyping of each specific lesion. DISCUSSION: Australia is well placed to gain a clear and early insight into the effectiveness of the human papillomavirus vaccine in reducing the prevalence of human papillomavirus infection in young women, and any subsequent reduction in the prevalence of pre-cancerous cervical lesions, specifically high grade cervical intraepithelial neoplasia lesions, particularly of vaccine related types. The findings of a successful population based human papillomavirus program will have wide-reaching translational benefits across the globe.

Early effect of the HPV vaccination programme on cervical abnormalities in Victoria, Australia: an ecological study.

BACKGROUND: Australia introduced a human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination programme with the quadrivalent HPV vaccine for all women aged 12-26 years between 2007 and 2009. We analysed trends in cervical abnormalities in women in Victoria, Australia, before and after introduction of the vaccination programme. METHODS: With data from the Victorian Cervical Cytology Registry between 2003 and 2009, we compared the incidence of histopathologically defined high-grade cervical abnormalities (HGAs, lesions coded as cervical intraepithelial neoplasia of grade 2 or worse or adenocarcinoma in situ; primary outcome) and low-grade cytological abnormalities (LGAs) in five age groups before (Jan 1, 2003, to March 31, 2007) and after (April 1, 2007, to Dec 31, 2009) the vaccination programme began. Binary comparisons between the two periods were done with Fisher's exact test. Poisson piecewise regression analysis was used to compare incident rate trends. FINDINGS: After the introduction of the vaccination programme, we recorded a decrease in the incidence of HGAs by 0·38% (95% CI 0·61-0·16) in girls younger than 18 years. This decrease was progressive and significantly different to the linear trend in incidence before introduction of the vaccination (incident rate ratio 1·14, 1·00-1·30, p=0·05). No similar temporal decline was recorded for LGAs or in older age groups. INTERPRETATION: This is the first report of a decrease in incidence of HGAs within 3 years after the implementation of a population-wide HPV vaccination programme. Linkage between vaccination and screening registers is needed to confirm that this ecological observation is attributable to vaccination and to monitor participation in screening among vaccinated women. FUNDING: None.

Bodyweight and other correlates of symptom-detected breast cancers in a population offered screening.

OBJECTIVE: To determine the factors associated with symptom-detected breast cancers in a population offered screening. METHODS: We interviewed 1,459 Australian women aged 40-69, 946 with symptom-detected and 513 with mammogram-detected invasive breast cancers ≥ 1.1 cm in diameter about their personal, mammogram, and breast histories before diagnosis and reviewed medical records for tumor characteristics and mammogram dates, calculating ORs and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for symptom- versus mammogram-detected cancers in logistic regression models. RESULTS: Lack of regular mammograms (<2 mammograms in the 4.5 years before diagnosis) was the strongest correlate of symptom-detected breast cancer (OR = 3.04 for irregular or no mammograms). In women who had regular mammograms (≥ 2 mammograms in the 4.5 years before diagnosis), the independent correlates of symptom-detected cancers were low BMI (OR < 25 kg/m(2) vs. ≥ 30 kg/m(2) = 2.18, 95% CI 1.23-3.84; p = 0.008), increased breast density (available in 498 women) (OR highest quarter vs. lowest = 3.50, 95% CI 1.76-6.97; p (trend) = 0.004), high-grade cancer, and a larger cancer (each p < 0.01). In women who did not have regular mammograms, the independent correlates were age <50 years, a first cancer, and a ≥ 2-cm cancer. Smoking appeared to modify the association of symptom-detected cancer with low BMI (higher ORs for low BMI in current smokers) and estrogen receptor (ER) status (higher ORs for low BMI in ER cancers). CONCLUSION: Women with low BMI may benefit from a tailored approach to breast cancer detection, particularly if they smoke.

HPV self-sampling and follow-up over two rounds of cervical screening in Australia - the iPap trial.

OBJECTIVES: Previously, based on 6 months of follow-up, we showed that HPV self-sampling improved participation in cervical screening compared to a reminder letter for Pap testing for never- and under-screened women. Here, we report follow-up and related screening outcomes for women who participated in the initial self-sampling over two screening rounds. SETTING: The randomised controlled trial was conducted in Australia. METHODS: Never- and under-screened women were randomly allocated to the HPV self-sampling or the reminder for Pap test arm and followed at 6 and 36 months since the kits were first mailed. RESULTS: The first round of HPV self-sampling kits were mailed from May-July 2014 to 12 572 women. After 36 months, 19% of never-screened and 9% of under-screened women returned a kit for HPV testing; 2.7% were HPV 16/18 and 5.8% non-16/18 HPV positive. Compliance with first round follow-up was 84% (95% CI: 77.1-89.5%). Non-compliant and cytology triage negative women were mailed another kit at 12 months. Compliance at 12-month follow-up was 59.3% (49.4 to 68.6%). Of 37 women with a 12-month repeat HPV, 70% were positive. Of women who tested negative for HPV in the first round (n = 1573), 25% attended regular screening in the next round and none had CIN2 + detected. The overall prevalence of CIN2 + was 8.5 per 1000 screened (4.8 to 13.9 per 1000). CONCLUSION: While self-sampling can successfully engage women, compliance with repeat testing may require monitoring. The clinician-supported self-collection pathway now in use in Australia will likely improve women's engagement with follow-up.

Iron-overload-related disease in HFE hereditary hemochromatosis.

BACKGROUND: Most persons who are homozygous for C282Y, the HFE allele most commonly asssociated with hereditary hemochromatosis, have elevated levels of serum ferritin and transferrin saturation. Diseases related to iron overload develop in some C282Y homozygotes, but the extent of the risk is controversial. METHODS: We assessed HFE mutations in 31,192 persons of northern European descent between the ages of 40 and 69 years who participated in the Melbourne Collaborative Cohort Study and were followed for an average of 12 years. In a random sample of 1438 subjects stratified according to HFE genotype, including all 203 C282Y homozygotes (of whom 108 were women and 95 were men), we obtained clinical and biochemical data, including two sets of iron measurements performed 12 years apart. Disease related to iron overload was defined as documented iron overload and one or more of the following conditions: cirrhosis, liver fibrosis, hepatocellular carcinoma, elevated aminotransferase levels, physician-diagnosed symptomatic hemochromatosis, and arthropathy of the second and third metacarpophalangeal joints. RESULTS: The proportion of C282Y homozygotes with documented iron-overload-related disease was 28.4% (95% confidence interval [CI], 18.8 to 40.2) for men and 1.2% (95% CI, 0.03 to 6.5) for women. Only one non-C282Y homozygote (a compound heterozygote) had documented iron-overload-related disease. Male C282Y homozygotes with a serum ferritin level of 1000 mug per liter or more were more likely to report fatigue, use of arthritis medicine, and a history of liver disease than were men who had the wild-type gene. CONCLUSIONS: In persons who are homozygous for the C282Y mutation, iron-overload-related disease developed in a substantial proportion of men but in a small proportion of women.

HFE Cys282Tyr homozygotes with serum ferritin concentrations below 1000 microg/L are at low risk of hemochromatosis.

UNLABELLED: Hemochromatosis gene (HFE)-associated hereditary hemochromatosis (HH) is a genetic predisposition to iron overload and subsequent signs and symptoms of disease that potentially affects approximately 80,000 persons in Australia and almost 1 million persons in the United States. Most clinical cases are homozygous for the Cys282Tyr (C282Y) mutation in the HFE gene, with serum ferritin (SF) concentration >1000 microg/L as the strongest predictor of cirrhosis. The optimal treatment regimen for those with SF concentrations above the normal range but <1000 microg/L is unknown. We assessed HFE mutations in a prospective cohort of 31,192 participants of northern European descent, aged 40-69 years. An HFE-stratified random sample of 1438 participants including all C282Y homozygotes with iron studies 12 years apart were examined by physicians blinded to participants' HFE genotype. All previously undiagnosed C282Y homozygotes (35 male, 67 female) and all HFE wild-types (131 male, 160 female) with baseline and follow-up SF concentrations <1000 microg/L were assessed for HH-associated signs and symptoms including abnormal second/third metacarpophalangeal joints (MCP2/3), raised liver enzymes, hepatomegaly, and self-reported liver disease, fatigue, diabetes mellitus, and use of arthritis medication. The prevalence of HH-associated signs and symptoms was similar for C282Y homozygotes and HFE wild-types for both normal and moderately elevated SF concentrations. The maximum prevalence difference between HFE genotype groups with moderately elevated SF was 11% (MCP2/3, 95% confidence interval = -6%, 29%; P = 0.22) and for normal SF was 6% (arthritis medicine use, 95% confidence interval = -3%, 16%; P = 0.11). CONCLUSION: Previously undiagnosed C282Y homozygotes with SF concentrations that remain below 1000 microg/L are at low risk of developing HH-associated signs and symptoms at an age when disease would be expected to have developed. These observations have implications for the management of C282Y homozygotes.

HFE C282Y homozygotes are at increased risk of breast and colorectal cancer.

UNLABELLED: The evidence that mutations in the HFE gene for hemochromatosis are associated with increased cancer risk is inconsistent. The Melbourne Collaborative Cohort Study is a prospective cohort study that commenced recruitment in 1990. Participants born in Australia, New Zealand, the United Kingdom, or Ireland (n = 28,509) were genotyped for the HFE C282Y (substitution of tyrosine for cysteine at amino acid 282) variant. Incident cancers were ascertained from Australian cancer registries during an average of 14 years follow-up. Hazard ratios (HRs), confidence intervals (CIs), and P values were obtained from separate Cox regression analyses for colorectal, breast, and prostate cancers, all other solid cancers, and all cancers. Compared to those with no C282Y variant, C282Y homozygotes were at increased risk of colorectal cancer (HR = 2.28; 95% CI = 1.22, 4.25; P = 0.01) and female C282Y homozygotes were at increased risk of developing breast cancer (HR = 2.39; 95% CI = 1.24, 4.61; P = 0.01), but male C282Y homozygotes were not at increased risk for prostate cancer (HR = 0.96; 95% CI = 0.43, 2.15; P = 0.92). C282Y/H63D compound heterozygotes were not at increased risk for colorectal cancer (HR = 1.27; 95% CI = 0.80, 2.01), breast cancer (HR = 1.16; 95% CI = 0.74, 1.84), or prostate cancer (HR = 1.08; 95% CI = 0.68, 1.70). CONCLUSION: HFE C282Y homozygotes have twice the risk of colorectal and breast cancer compared with those individuals without the C282Y variant.

Physical activity, body size and composition, and risk of ovarian cancer.

OBJECTIVES: We examined the association between risk of ovarian cancer and physical activity and anthropometry (body mass index, height, waist, fat, and fat-free mass) in the Melbourne Collaborative Cohort Study. METHODS: This prospective cohort study included 18,700 women aged 26-76 years old at recruitment between 1990 and 1994. Participants were interviewed about their physical activity, including frequency and intensity. Body measurements were taken directly; fat mass and fat-free mass were calculated from bioelectrical impedance analysis. During an average of 10.2 years of follow-up, 113 ovarian cancers were ascertained. Cox regression was used to estimate hazard ratios. RESULTS: After adjusting for potential confounders, compared with no physical activity, the hazard ratios for levels of total physical activity were 1.56 (95% CI: 0.81, 3.00) for low level, 1.92 (1.07, 3.45) for medium level, and 2.21 (1.16, 4.24) for high level (test for trend, p = 0.01). The hazard ratio for ovarian cancer in relation to BMI was 1.22 (95% CI: 1.00, 1.48; p-trend, 0.06) per 5 kg/m(2) increment, and for fat mass, 1.23 (95% CI: 1.01, 1.49; p-trend, 0.04) per 10 kg increment. CONCLUSIONS: This study found some evidence for a possible relationship between higher levels of physical activity and body size and increased ovarian cancer risk.

HFE C282Y/H63D compound heterozygotes are at low risk of hemochromatosis-related morbidity.

UNLABELLED: The risk of hemochromatosis-related morbidity is unknown among HFE compound heterozygotes (C282Y/H63D). We used a prospective population-based cohort study to estimate the prevalence of elevated iron indices and hemochromatosis-related morbidity for compound heterozygotes. In all, 31,192 subjects of northern European descent were genotyped for HFE C282Y and H63D. An HFE-genotype stratified random sample of 1,438 subjects, followed for an average of 12 years to a mean age of 65 years, completed questionnaires and gave blood. Clinical examinations were blinded to HFE genotype. A total of 180 (84 males) clinically examined C282Y/H63D participants were compared with 330 (149 males) controls with neither HFE mutation; 132 (65 males) and 270 (122 males), respectively, had serum iron measures at both timepoints. Mean serum ferritin (SF) and transferrin saturation (TS) were significantly greater for male and female compound heterozygotes than for wild-types at baseline and follow-up (all P < 0.02) except for females who were premenopausal at baseline, where SF was similar in both genotype groups. For subjects with serum measures from both baseline and follow-up, mean SF and TS levels did not change significantly for men or for postmenopausal women, but for premenopausal women SF levels increased from 43 to 109 microg/L for compound heterozygotes and from 35 to 64 microg/L for wild-types (both P < 0.001). Male and female compound heterozygotes had a similar prevalence of hemochromatosis-related morbidity to wild-types. One of 82 males and zero of 95 females had documented iron overload-related disease. CONCLUSION: For male compound heterozygotes, mean iron indices do not change during middle age but for female compound heterozygotes menopause results in increased mean SF. Although compound heterozygotes might maintain elevated iron indices during middle age, documented iron overload-related disease is rare.

Using functional data analysis models to estimate future time trends in age-specific breast cancer mortality for the United States and England-Wales.

BACKGROUND: Mortality/incidence predictions are used for allocating public health resources and should accurately reflect age-related changes through time. We present a new forecasting model for estimating future trends in age-related breast cancer mortality for the United States and England-Wales. METHODS: We used functional data analysis techniques both to model breast cancer mortality-age relationships in the United States from 1950 through 2001 and England-Wales from 1950 through 2003 and to estimate 20-year predictions using a new forecasting method. RESULTS: In the United States, trends for women aged 45 to 54 years have continued to decline since 1980. In contrast, trends in women aged 60 to 84 years increased in the 1980s and declined in the 1990s. For England-Wales, trends for women aged 45 to 74 years slightly increased before 1980, but declined thereafter. The greatest age-related changes for both regions were during the 1990s. For both the United States and England-Wales, trends are expected to decline and then stabilize, with the greatest decline in women aged 60 to 70 years. Forecasts suggest relatively stable trends for women older than 75 years. CONCLUSIONS: Prediction of age-related changes in mortality/incidence can be used for planning and targeting programs for specific age groups. Currently, these models are being extended to incorporate other variables that may influence age-related changes in mortality/incidence trends. In their current form, these models will be most useful for modeling and projecting future trends of diseases for which there has been very little advancement in treatment and minimal cohort effects (eg. lethal cancers).

A novel association between a SNP in CYBRD1 and serum ferritin levels in a cohort study of HFE hereditary haemochromatosis.

There is emerging evidence that there are genetic modifiers of iron indices for HFE gene mutation carriers at risk of hereditary hemochromatosis. A random sample, stratified by HFE genotype, of 863 from a cohort of 31 192 people of northern European descent provided blood samples for genotyping of 476 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in 44 genes involved in iron metabolism. Single SNP association testing, using linear regression models adjusted for sex, menopause and HFE genotype, was conducted for four continuously distributed outcomes: serum ferritin (log transformed), transferrin saturation, serum transferrin, and serum iron. The SNP rs884409 in CYBRD1 is a novel modifier specific to HFE C282Y homozygotes. Median unadjusted serum ferritin concentration decreased from 1194 microg/l (N = 27) to 387 microg/l (N = 16) for male C282Y homozygotes and from 357 microg/l (N = 42) to 69 microg/l (N = 12) for females, comparing those with no copies to those with one copy of rs884409. Functional testing of this CYBRD1 promoter polymorphism using a heterologous expression assay resulted in a 30% decrease in basal promoter activity relative to the common genotype (P = 0.004). This putative genetic modifier of iron overload expression accounts for 11% (95% CI 0.4%, 22.6%) of the variance in serum ferritin levels of C282Y homozygotes.

The natural history of serum iron indices for HFE C282Y homozygosity associated with hereditary hemochromatosis.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: There are few longitudinal studies of serum ferritin (SF) and transferrin saturation (TS) levels in individuals homozygous for the C282Y mutation. We characterized the development of elevated iron measures in C282Y homozygotes followed for 12 years. METHODS: From 31,192 people aged 40-69 years at baseline, we identified 203 C282Y homozygotes (95 males), of whom 116 had SF and fasting TS levels measured at baseline (mean age, 55 years) and 86 were untreated and had iron measures at follow-up (mean, 12 years later). The probabilities of SF at follow-up exceeding clinical thresholds were predicted from baseline SF and TS under a multivariate normal model. RESULTS: For C282Y homozygotes, at baseline, 84% of males and 65% of females had elevated SF and 37% of males and 3% of females had SF >1000 microg/L. For males with SF 300-1000 microg/L at baseline, the predicted probability of progressing to SF >1000 microg/L at follow-up was between 13% and 35% and, for females, between 16% and 22%. For C282Y homozygotes with normal baseline SF, <15% were predicted to develop SF >1000 microg/L if left untreated. CONCLUSIONS: The majority of C282Y homozygotes who are likely to develop SF levels sufficient to place them at risk of iron overload-related disease will have done so by mean age 55 years. TS >95% at mean age 55 years in males increases the likelihood that SF levels will be elevated at mean age 65 years, but this effect is absent in females, most likely because of physiologic blood loss associated with menstruation.