Commercial determinants of health: future directions.

This paper is about the future role of the commercial sector in global health and health equity. The discussion is not about the overthrow of capitalism nor a full-throated embrace of corporate partnerships. No single solution can eradicate the harms from the commercial determinants of health-the business models, practices, and products of market actors that damage health equity and human and planetary health and wellbeing. But evidence shows that progressive economic models, international frameworks, government regulation, compliance mechanisms for commercial entities, regenerative business types and models that incorporate health, social, and environmental goals, and strategic civil society mobilisation together offer possibilities of systemic, transformative change, reduce those harms arising from commercial forces, and foster human and planetary wellbeing. In our view, the most basic public health question is not whether the world has the resources or will to take such actions, but whether humanity can survive if society fails to make this effort.

Conceptualising commercial entities in public health: beyond unhealthy commodities and transnational corporations.

Most public health research on the commercial determinants of health (CDOH) to date has focused on a narrow segment of commercial actors. These actors are generally the transnational corporations producing so-called unhealthy commodities such as tobacco, alcohol, and ultra-processed foods. Furthermore, as public health researchers, we often discuss the CDOH using sweeping terms such as private sector, industry, or business that lump together diverse entities whose only shared characteristic is their engagement in commerce. The absence of clear frameworks for differentiating among commercial entities, and for understanding how they might promote or harm health, hinders the governance of commercial interests in public health. Moving forward, it is necessary to develop a nuanced understanding of commercial entities that goes beyond this narrow focus, enabling the consideration of a fuller range of commercial entities and the features that characterise and distinguish them. In this paper, which is the second of three papers in a Series on commercial determinants of health, we develop a framework that enables meaningful distinctions among diverse commercial entities through consideration of their practices, portfolios, resources, organisation, and transparency. The framework that we develop permits fuller consideration of whether, how, and to what extent a commercial actor might influence health outcomes. We discuss possible applications for decision making about engagement; managing and mitigating conflicts of interest; investment and divestment; monitoring; and further research on the CDOH. Improved differentiation among commercial actors strengthens the capacity of practitioners, advocates, academics, regulators, and policy makers to make decisions about, to better understand, and to respond to the CDOH through research, engagement, disengagement, regulation, and strategic opposition.

Defining and conceptualising the commercial determinants of health.

Although commercial entities can contribute positively to health and society there is growing evidence that the products and practices of some commercial actors-notably the largest transnational corporations-are responsible for escalating rates of avoidable ill health, planetary damage, and social and health inequity; these problems are increasingly referred to as the commercial determinants of health. The climate emergency, the non-communicable disease epidemic, and that just four industry sectors (ie, tobacco, ultra-processed food, fossil fuel, and alcohol) already account for at least a third of global deaths illustrate the scale and huge economic cost of the problem. This paper, the first in a Series on the commercial determinants of health, explains how the shift towards market fundamentalism and increasingly powerful transnational corporations has created a pathological system in which commercial actors are increasingly enabled to cause harm and externalise the costs of doing so. Consequently, as harms to human and planetary health increase, commercial sector wealth and power increase, whereas the countervailing forces having to meet these costs (notably individuals, governments, and civil society organisations) become correspondingly impoverished and disempowered or captured by commercial interests. This power imbalance leads to policy inertia; although many policy solutions are available, they are not being implemented. Health harms are escalating, leaving health-care systems increasingly unable to cope. Governments can and must act to improve, rather than continue to threaten, the wellbeing of future generations, development, and economic growth.

What Can Current Biomarker Data Tell Us About the Risks of Lung Cancer Posed by Heated Tobacco Products?

INTRODUCTION: Heated tobacco products (HTPs) are marketed as less harmful alternatives to cigarettes, but the lung cancer risk of HTPs is unknown. In the absence of epidemiological data, assessing the risks of HTPs relies on biomarker data from clinical trials. This study examined existing biomarker data to determine what it tells us about the lung cancer risk posed by HTPs. AIMS AND METHODS: We identified all biomarkers of exposure and potential harm measured in HTP trials and evaluated their appropriateness based on ideal characteristics for measuring lung cancer risk and tobacco use. The effects of HTPs on the most appropriate biomarkers within cigarette smokers switched to HTPs and compared to continued cigarette smoking or cessation were synthesized. RESULTS: Sixteen out of eighty-two biomarkers (7 exposure and 9 potential harm) measured in HTP trials have been associated with tobacco use and lung cancer, dose-dependently correlated with smoking, modifiable upon cessation, measured within an appropriate timeframe, and had results published. Three of the exposure biomarkers significantly improved in smokers who switched to HTPs and were not significantly different from cessation. The remaining 13 biomarkers did not improve-in some instances worsening upon switching to HTPs-or were inconsistently affected across studies. There were no appropriate data to estimate the lung cancer risk of HTPs in non-smokers. CONCLUSIONS: The appropriateness of existing biomarker data in assessing lung cancer risk of HTPs, both relative to cigarettes and their absolute risk, is limited. Furthermore, findings on the most appropriate biomarkers were conflicting across studies and largely showed no improvement following a switch to HTPs. IMPLICATIONS: Biomarker data are fundamental to assessing the reduced risk potential of HTPs. Our evaluation suggests much of the existing biomarker data on HTPs is inappropriate for determining the risk of lung cancer posed by HTPs. In particular, there is a paucity of data on the absolute lung cancer risk of HTPs, which could be obtained from comparisons to smokers who quit and never smokers exposed to or using HTPs. There is an urgent need for further exploration of the lung cancer risks posed by HTPs, via clinical trials and, in the long-term, confirmation of these risks via epidemiological studies. However, careful consideration should be given to biomarker selection and study design to ensure both are appropriate and will provide valuable data.

"Keep it a secret": leaked documents suggest Philip Morris International, and its Japanese affiliate, continue to exploit science for profit.

INTRODUCTION: The tobacco industry has a long history of manipulating science to conceal the harms of its products. As part of its proclaimed transformation, the world's largest tobacco company, Philip Morris International (PMI), states it conducts "transparent science". This paper uses recently leaked documents from PMI and its Japanese affiliate, Philip Morris Japan (PMJ), to examine its contemporary scientific practices. METHODS: 23 documents dating 2012 through 2020 available from Truth Tobacco Industry Documents Library were examined using Forster's hermeneutic approach to analysing corporate documentation. Thematic analysis using the Science for Profit Model was conducted to assess whether PMI/PMJ employed known corporate strategies to influence science in their interests. RESULTS: PMJ contracted a third-party external research organisation, CMIC, to covertly fund a study on smoking cessation conducted by Kyoto University academics. No public record of PMJ's funding or involvement in this study was found. PMJ paid life sciences consultancy, FTI-Innovations, ¥3,000,000 (approx. £20,000) a month between 2014 and 2019 to undertake extensive science-adjacent work, including building relationships with key scientific opinion leaders and using academic events to promote PMI's science, products and messaging. FTI-Innovation's work was hidden internally and externally. These activities resemble known strategies to influence the conduct, publication and reach of science, and conceal scientific activities. CONCLUSIONS: The documents reveal PMI/PMJ's recent activities mirror past practices to manipulate science, undermining PMI's proclaimed transformation. Tobacco industry scientific practices remain a threat to public health, highlighting the urgent need for reform to protect science from the tobacco industry's vested interests.Implications: Japan is a key market for PMI, being a launch market for IQOS and having the highest heated tobacco product use globally. Our findings, in conjunction with other recent evidence, challenge PMI's assertion that it is a source of credible science and cast doubt on the quality and ethical defensibility of its research, especially its studies conducted in Japan. This, in turn, brings into question the true public health impacts of its products. There is urgent need to reform the way tobacco-related science is funded and conducted. Implementation of models through which research can be funded using the industry's profits while minimising its influence should be explored.

Document analysis of the Foundation for a Smoke-Free World's scientific outputs and activities: a case study in contemporary tobacco industry agnogenesis.

BACKGROUND: Tobacco corporation Philip Morris International launched the Foundation for a Smoke-Free World (FSFW), a purportedly independent scientific organisation, in 2017. We aimed to systematically investigate FSFW's activities and outputs, comparing these with previous industry attempts to influence science, as identified in the recently developed typology of corporate influence on science, the Science for Profit Model (SPM). DESIGN: We prospectively collected data on FSFW over a 4-year period, 2017-2021, and used document analysis to assess whether FSFW's activities mirror practices tobacco and other industries have historically used to shape science in their own interests. We used the SPM as an analytical framework, working deductively to search for use of the strategies it identifies, and inductively to search for any additional strategies. RESULTS: Marked similarities between FSFW's practices and previous corporate attempts to influence science were observed, including: producing tobacco industry-friendly research and opinion; obscuring industry involvement in science; funding third parties which denigrate science and scientists that may threaten industry profitability; and promoting tobacco industry credibility. CONCLUSIONS: Our paper identifies FSFW as a new vehicle for agnogenesis, indicating that, over 70 years since the tobacco industry began to manipulate science, efforts to protect science from its interference remain inadequate. This, combined with growing evidence that other industries are engaging in similar practices, illustrates the urgent need to develop more robust systems to protect scientific integrity.

Seeking to be seen as legitimate members of the scientific community? An analysis of British American Tobacco and Philip Morris International's involvement in scientific events.

INTRODUCTION: For decades, tobacco companies manipulated and misused science. They funded and disseminated favourable research and suppressed research that showed the harms of their products, deliberately generating misinformation. While previous work has examined many of the practices involved, their engagement in scientific events has so far not been systematically studied. Here, we examine the involvement of British American Tobacco (BAT) and Philip Morris International (PMI) in scientific events, including conferences, symposia and workshops. METHODS: Our analysis involved two steps. First, we collected all available data PMI and BAT provided on their websites to identify events. Second, we extracted information about the nature of tobacco industry involvement from event websites and materials. RESULTS: We identified 213 scientific events that BAT and/or PMI representatives attended between April 2012 and September 2021. Most events took place in high-income countries in Europe and North America. They covered a diverse range of fields, including toxicology (n=60, 28.1%), medicine (n=25, 11.7%), biology (n=24, 11.3%), chemistry (n=23, 10.8%) and aerosol science (n=18, 8.5%), as well as dentistry (n=9, 4.2%), pharmaceutical science (n=8, 3.8%) and computing (n=8, 3.8%). We identified 356 posters provided by BAT and PMI that linked to 118 events (55.4%) as well as 77 presentations from 65 events (30.5%). Industry involvement through sponsorship (nine events), exhibition (three events) or organising committee (one event) was rare. CONCLUSION: BAT and PMI representatives attended a large number and wide range of scientific events. Given that scientific events could be a crucial platform for building connections in the scientific sphere and disseminating industry's messages, this work highlights the importance of denormalising the tobacco industry's involvement in scientific events.

Analysis of Philip Morris International's 'aspirational' target for its 2025 cigarette shipments.

BACKGROUND: Philip Morris International (PMI) claims to be transforming and has committed to a 'smoke-free' future. In 2020, it announced an 'aspirational' target for reduced cigarette shipments by 2025. METHODS: PMI cigarette shipment data are taken from PMI quarterly financial reports 2008-2023. Trends in these data before and after the 2020 announcement are analysed using linear regression, and auto regressive integrated moving average and error, trend, seasonal time-series models to assess if PMI's 2025 target would be met on pre-existing trends, and if the trend changed after the announcement. These trends are also compared with the global retail market for cigarettes, using sales data from Euromonitor. RESULTS: Findings were consistent across all three models. PMI's shipment target of 550 billion cigarette sticks by 2025 would readily have been met given pre-existing shipment trends. Following the 2020 announcement, the decline in PMI cigarette shipments stalled markedly with a statistically significant change in trend (p<0.001). The current and projected trend to 2025 is consistent with no further decline in cigarette volumes, meaning PMI is unlikely to hit its target. This mirrors a global pattern in which declines in cigarette sales have stalled since 2020. CONCLUSIONS: PMI's 2025 target was not 'aspirational' but highly conservative-it would have been met based on pre-existing trends in declining cigarette shipments. Yet PMI will nonetheless fail to meet that target providing evidence it is not transforming. Stalling of the decline of PMI and global cigarette sales raises significant concerns about progress in global tobacco control.

Tobacco industry interference to undermine the development and implementation of graphic health warnings in Bangladesh.

BACKGROUND: In Bangladesh, the 2013 Amendment of the Tobacco Control Act made graphic health warnings (GHWs) on the upper 50% of all tobacco packs obligatory. However, at the time of writing (May 2022), GHWs are still being printed on the lower 50% of packs. This paper seeks to explore how the tobacco industry undermined the development and implementation of GHWs in Bangladesh, a country known for a high level of tobacco industry interference (TII) that has rarely been examined in the peer-reviewed literature. METHODS: Analysis of print and electronic media articles and documents. RESULTS: Cigarette companies actively opposed GHWs, while bidi companies did not. The primary strategy used to influence the formulation and delay the implementation of GHWs was direct lobbying by the Bangladesh Cigarette Manufacturers' Association and British American Tobacco Bangladesh. Their arguments stressed the economic benefits of tobacco to Bangladesh and sought to create confusion about the impact of GHWs, for example, claiming that GHWs would obscure tax banderols, thus threatening revenue collection. They also claimed technical barriers to implementation-that new machinery would be needed-leading to delays. Tensions between government bodies were identified, one of which (National Board of Revenue)-seemingly close to cigarette companies and representing their arguments-sought to influence others to adopt industry-preferred positions. Finally, although tobacco control advocates were partially successful in counteracting TII, one self-proclaimed tobacco control group, whose nature remains unclear, threatened the otherwise united approach. CONCLUSIONS: The strategies cigarette companies used closely resemble key techniques from the well-evidenced tobacco industry playbook. The study underlines the importance of continuing monitoring and investigations into industry conduct and suspicious actors. Prioritising the implementation of WHO Framework Convention on Tobacco Control Article 5.3 is crucial for advancing tobacco control, particularly in places like Bangladesh, where close government-industry links exist.

Corporate communication of the relative health risks of IQOS through a webchat service.

BACKGROUND: Communication of the relative health risks of IQOS can attract potential consumers, aiding its commercial success. However, health-related claims need to be used cautiously to avoid inaccuracies and attracting non-smokers. We used the live webchat service on the IQOS website to identify information and claims on the relative risks of IQOS made directly to potential consumers in different countries. METHODS: The study was promoted through authors' networks and conducted between 1 August and 30 November 2020. Participants collected webchat conversation responses to three queries regarding the safety of IQOS relative to cigarettes and e-cigarettes using step-by-step guidance and a predesigned form. Responses were analysed to identify health-related claims and information provided. RESULTS: 70 webchat attempts were recorded across 27 countries, 54 of which (in 22 countries) were successful webchat conversations. In 48 of these, one or more claims were used to indicate IQOS is safer than cigarettes, such as IQOS is smoke free, emits less harmful substances or reduces harm. Four conversations contained statements indicating IQOS is safer than e-cigarettes. Some statements provided were contradictory. Participant age was consistently requested on accessing the website, but tobacco/nicotine use was not. Other information provided included referral to the 2020 US Food and Drug Administration Modified Risk Tobacco Product decision, IQOS or Philip Morris International web pages and claims that IQOS is not risk free nor a cessation device. CONCLUSIONS: A variety of claims and information on the relative safety of IQOS were used in webchat communications. Response variation highlights that clearer regulation is needed to appropriately control corporate communications via live webchat services.

How has the tobacco industry passed tax changes through to consumers in 12 sub-Saharan African countries?

INTRODUCTION: Tobacco taxation is only effective in reducing consumption when it is translated into higher prices. This study aims to investigate to what extent the tobacco industry (TI) passes tax increases over to consumers by increasing the retail price of cigarettes in 12 sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries. METHODS: African Cigarette Prices Project and WHO's Global Tobacco Epidemic Reports data were used to calculate the rate of tax pass-through by decomposing the retail price of cigarettes into tax and net prices between 2016 and 2020. Percentage change in net price was used to identify industry pricing behaviour, in both packs and single-stick sales. TI pricing strategies were examined by country, producer type, producers, and cigarette price segment. RESULTS: There were mixed TI strategies, with taxes primarily overshifted (Botswana, Madagascar, Tanzania, Zimbabwe), undershifted (Ethiopia, Lesotho, Mozambique, Namibia, South Africa, Zambia) or a mix of both (Malawi, Nigeria). The detail varied between countries, over time, and between the different brands/segments offered. Patterns for single-stick sales were broadly similar to that of packs but with some differences observed in particular countries/years. Pricing strategies for the various transnational tobacco companies and domestic producers were similar but the changes in net price for the latter were larger. The country tax level/type and the size of tax change did not seem to be an obvious influence. CONCLUSION: This paper provides an overview of TI pricing strategies in response to tax increases in SSA. Governments must monitor how the TI responds to tax changes to ensure that tax increases are effective in impacting price.

Tobacco industry pricing strategies in response to excise tax policies: a systematic review.

OBJECTIVE: To explore what is known about the tobacco industry's (TI) price-based responses to tobacco excise tax policies and whether these vary by country income group using a systematic review. DATA SOURCES: Studies assessing TI pricing tactics were identified via searches of five online databases using a combination of search keywords. STUDY SELECTION: Inclusion criteria were applied by two reviewers independently who screened all search results (titles and abstracts) for possible inclusion. They identified 37 publications that reported TI pricing tactics. DATA EXTRACTION: Study details were tabulated, and information was extracted on the country income group, population characteristics, excise tax structure, and pricing strategies. DATA SYNTHESIS: Of the 37 publications identified, 22 were conducted in high-income countries, while 15 covered low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs). Major pricing strategies employed were: differentially shifting taxes between products (35 studies); launching new brands/products as pathways for downtrading (six studies), product promotions and different prices for the same products for different customers (six studies); price smoothing (two studies); and changing product attributes such as length/size of cigarettes or production processes (three studies). CONCLUSIONS: While there is limited evidence to fully ascertain industry responses to tax increases, this review suggests that the TI widely uses a multitude of sophisticated pricing strategies across different settings around the world with the intention of undermining tax policies, thereby increasing tobacco consumption and maximising their profits. There is a need for further research in this area especially in LMICs so that effective policy responses can be developed.

Framing the policy debate over tobacco control legislation and tobacco taxation in South Africa.

BACKGROUND: In 2018, South Africa opened public consultations on its newly proposed tobacco control bill, resulting in substantial public debate in which a range of arguments, either in favour of or against the Bill, was advanced. These were accompanied by the recurring discussions about the annual adjustments in tobacco taxation. This study uses the concept of framing to examine the public debate in South African print media on the potential effects of the legislation, as well as tobacco tax regulations, between their proponents and detractors. METHODS: A systematic search of news articles using multiple data sources identified 132 media articles published between January 2018 and September 2019 that met the inclusion criteria. RESULTS: Seven overarching frames were identified as characterising the media debate, with the three dominant frames being Economic, Harm reduction and vaping, and Health. The leading Economic frame consisted primarily of arguments unsupportive of tobacco control legislation. Economic arguments were promoted by tobacco industry spokespeople, trade unions, organisations of retailers, media celebrities and think tanks-several of which have been identified as front groups or third-party lobbyists for the tobacco industry. CONCLUSION: The dominance of economic arguments opposing tobacco control legislation risks undermining tobacco control progress. Local and global tobacco control advocates should seek to build relationships with media, as well as collate and disseminate effective counterarguments to those advanced by the industry.

"They try to suppress us, but we should be louder": a qualitative exploration of intimidation in tobacco control.

BACKGROUND: Tobacco control advocates and researchers face powerful opponents who go to great lengths to protect their interests. While threats and attacks are documented in the grey literature, research into intimidation remains scarce. Building on previous exploratory research, this study seeks to offer in-depth insights into experiences of intimidation in the global tobacco control community. METHODS: Using qualitative description, we conducted a focus group and semi-structured interviews with tobacco control advocates and researchers to explore their experiences, including forms of, and responses to, intimidation, and ways forward. Data were analysed using qualitative content analysis. RESULTS: Twenty-nine individuals from across the globe participated in the study. They reported several forms of intimidation including attacks in the media; online harassment; legal threats; non-legal threats, including death threats; Freedom of Information requests; perceived or actual surveillance; as well as burglary and theft. Responses included non-action (i.e. ignoring attacks); withdrawal (i.e. abandoning a project, area or field); defensive adaptation, for example through self-censorship; and offensive measures, including exposing attacks or filing complaints. Responses were shaped by several factors, including type and level of support from within internal and external networks; as well as an individual's mindset, skills and experiences; and state-civil society relations. Participants suggested several measures that could help address intimidation: 1) report and monitor intimidation; 2) (better) prepare individuals through awareness raising and training (e.g. IT security, legal); 3) support those in need through legal advice, a peer-support network and involvement in response; and 4) look beyond tobacco control to learn and build connections. CONCLUSION: Intimidation is a significant challenge to tobacco control that needs urgent attention. This study suggests measures to address intimidation that require commitment from, and collaboration amongst, multiple actors including governments, international organisations, funders, researchers and civil society. Moreover, collective action beyond tobacco control is needed to not only manage but move beyond intimidation.

Advocacy counterstrategies to tobacco industry interference in policymaking: a scoping review of peer-reviewed literature.

BACKGROUND: There has been remarkable tobacco control progress in many places around the globe. Tobacco industry interference (TII) has been identified as the most significant barrier to further implementation of the World Health Organization Framework Convention on Tobacco Control (WHO FCTC). Civil society has been recognised as a key actor in countering TII. While TII has been extensively studied for several decades now, there is little research that focuses on counteractions to limit it and their effectiveness to do so. This scoping review seeks to map the peer-reviewed literature on civil society's activities of countering TII in policymaking to identify common counterstrategies and assess their effectiveness. METHODS: Data sources: We searched Embase, IBSS, JSTOR, PubMed, Science Direct, Scopus and Web of Science using the following terms: ("Tobacco industry" OR "Tobacco compan*") AND. ("corporate political activity" OR "CPA" OR "lobbying" OR "interference") AND ("advoca*" OR "counter*" OR "activi*"), without time or language restrictions. STUDY SELECTION: Our selection criteria included peer-reviewed studies that were written in English, German, or Spanish that drew on primary data and/or legal and policy documents and reported at least one specific example of civil society members or organisations countering tobacco industry action-based strategies. DATA EXTRACTION: Advocates' counterstrategies were analysed inductively and countered industry strategies were analysed using the Policy Dystopia Model (PDM). Perceptions of effectiveness of countering attempts were analysed descriptively. RESULTS: We found five common counterstrategies among 30 included papers covering five WHO regions; 1. Exposing industry conduct and false claims; 2. Accessing decision-makers; 3. Generating and using evidence; 4. Filing a complaint or taking legal action; 5. Mobilising coalition and potential supporters. These counterstrategies were used to work against a wide range of industry strategies, which are captured by five action-based strategies described in the PDM (Coalition Management, Information Management, Direct Access and Influence, Litigation, Reputation Management). While some studies reported the outcome of the countering activities, their impact remained largely underexplored. CONCLUSION: The review shows that peer-reviewed literature documenting how civil society actors counter TII is scarce. It suggests that advocates employ a range of strategies to counter TII in its different forms and use them flexibly. More work is needed to better understand the effects of their actions. This could stimulate discussions about, and facilitate learning from, past experiences and help to further enhance advocates' capacity.

The use of participatory systems mapping as a research method in the context of non-communicable diseases and risk factors: a scoping review.

CONTEXT: Participatory systems mapping is increasingly used to gain insight into the complex systems surrounding non-communicable diseases (NCDs) and their risk factors. OBJECTIVES: To identify and synthesize studies that used participatory systems mapping in the context of non-communicable diseases. DESIGN: Scoping review. ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA: Peer-reviewed studies published between 2000 and 2022. STUDY SELECTION: Studies that focused on NCDs and/or related risk factors, and included participants at any stage of their system's mapping process, were included. CATEGORIES FOR ANALYSIS: The main categories for analysis were: (1) problem definition and goal-setting, (2) participant involvement, (3) structure of the mapping process, (4) validation of the systems map, and (5) evaluation of the mapping process. RESULTS: We identified 57 studies that used participatory systems mapping for a variety of purposes, including to inform or evaluate policies or interventions and to identify potential leverage points within a system. The number of participants ranged from 6 to 590. While policymakers and professionals were the stakeholder groups most often included, some studies described significant added value from including marginalized communities. There was a general lack of formal evaluation in most studies. However, reported benefits related mostly to individual and group learning, whereas limitations described included a lack of concrete actions following from systems mapping exercises. CONCLUSIONS: Based on the findings of this review, we argue that research using participatory systems mapping would benefit from considering three different but intertwined actions: explicitly considering how different participants and the power imbalances between them may influence the participatory process, considering how the results from a systems mapping exercise may effectively inform policy or translate into action, and including and reporting on evaluation and outcomes of the process, wherever possible.

Evaluating tobacco industry 'transformation': a proposed rubric and analysis.

Some tobacco companies claim they are 'transforming' by adopting harm reduction goals or even seeking to achieve a 'smokefree' world. What characterises transformation and whether companies can or are transforming is unclear. Nevertheless, such claims are gaining traction. We critically investigated tobacco industry transformation by exploring the definition and criteria for evaluating transformation, and assessed whether transformation is occurring and feasible.Companies' transformation claims centre on increasing sales of new tobacco and nicotine products like e-cigarettes ('new products') with little attention to reducing sales of more hazardous smoked and oral products ('conventional products').We define a transforming tobacco company as one demonstrating substantial, rapid and verifiable progress towards eliminating the production and sale of conventional tobacco products within 5 years in all markets where it operates.We found no evidence any tobacco company is meeting the three essential criteria of rapidly progressing towards eliminating conventional products, ceasing to obstruct effective tobacco control measures and taking action to minimise smoking uptake and disparities. While some companies are developing new product portfolios, their actions are more consistent with profit maximisation than eliminating conventional product use. This approach is best described as 'pseudo-transformation', designed to delay implementation of effective tobacco control policies. In addition, our analysis suggests replacing conventional products with new nicotine products is unlikely to be a viable long-term business model.Public health practitioners should not rely on tobacco industry claims but should lead the transformation debate, establish credible definitions and criteria, and monitor and assess whether transformation is occurring.

Turning a threat into an opportunity: British American Tobacco's weakening of the Protocol to Eliminate Illicit Trade in Tobacco Products.

BACKGROUND: Previous research has outlined transnational tobacco company (TTC) efforts to undermine implementation of the Protocol to Eliminate Illicit Trade in Tobacco Products (Protocol) and evidence of ongoing TTC complicity in the illicit tobacco trade (ITT). However, the industry's views on the Protocol and role in its development are not well understood. METHODS: Systematic searching and analysis of leaked documents-approximately 15 000 from British American Tobacco (BAT) and 35 from Philip Morris International, triangulated via searches of online resources and interviews with five stakeholders across academia, international organisations, governments, civil society and the private sector. FINDINGS: Evidence indicates that after privately viewing the Protocol as a significant threat (2003), BAT worked to influence its content, while publicly signalling support for it (2007-2012), and was largely satisfied with the final text. BAT successfully pushed for a non-prescriptive text which enabled further country-level TTC influence during the Protocol's implementation phase. The final text also reflected other BAT policy preferences, including preventing outright bans on duty-free sales and intermingling, and making it difficult to sanction and hold tobacco companies accountable for ongoing involvement in the ITT. TTC representatives were present during early Protocol negotiations, despite rules against this, and BAT obtained draft texts before they were public and paid at least one delegate to support its position. CONCLUSIONS: BAT's primary interest in shaping the Protocol was to minimise its financial and legal costs for BAT while maximising potential costs to small competitors. These findings raise concern about the Protocol's ability to control the ITT, particularly given TTCs' intention to influence ongoing national implementation. An effective Protocol is vital to controlling both the ITT and ongoing tobacco industry involvement in it and, in turn, governments' ability to increase tobacco taxes and thereby save lives.

Quantifying and characterising tobacco content in the most in-demand streamed series in 10 low/middle-income countries in 2019.

BACKGROUND: In line with the Framework Convention for Tobacco Control (FCTC) Article 13, the advertising and promotion of tobacco products is increasingly restricted. However, popular media continues to pose an exposure risk to youth populations (aged 13-18 years), including in low/middle-income countries (LMICs). This study presents a novel method to record the prevalence of tobacco depictions in streamed media content and the characterisation of that content. OBJECTIVES: Evaluate the frequency and characterisation of tobacco depictions in streamed content in LMICs. METHODS: Presence of tobacco depictions was evaluated in the four most in-demand series across 10 LMICs for the year 2019; this list included series that were released from 2017 onwards (2017-2019). Each character identified using tobacco was coded against 13 characterisation variables that recorded key demographic information as well as contextual information. RESULTS: The majority of series (72%, 13 of 18) analysed contained at least one depiction of tobacco use. 38% of tobacco depictions (359 of 941) occurred in content deemed suitable for audiences aged 15 years and up. 113 characters were depicted using tobacco across 38 episodes. 'Star' actors, featuring in opening credits with active profiles on the Internet Movie Database, accounted for 73% of tobacco-using characters (83 of 113). 5% of characters depicted using tobacco (6 of 113) were coded as minors (under 18 years). CONCLUSION: The continued prevalence of positively characterised tobacco content in youth-focused streamed content that is in high demand in LMICs poses a risk as a driver of smoking uptake in youth populations. There is an urgent need to better enforce tobacco advertising, promotion and sponsorship legislation in LMICs, and to update WHO FCTC guidance in line with rapidly evolving media platforms and content that is available internationally.

'To be honest, I'm really scared': perceptions and experiences of intimidation in the LMIC-based tobacco control community.

BACKGROUND: It is well-evidenced that environmental or human rights advocacy comes with risks for those involved. Much less is known about the risks of tobacco control advocacy despite the emphasis on tobacco industry conduct. This study explores the experiences and perceptions of intimidation among members of the tobacco control community in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). METHODS: We interviewed six experts representing each of the World Health Organization (WHO) regions to inform an online survey conducted among the LMIC-based tobacco control community. Thematic analysis was used for analysing qualitative data while quantitative data were analysed descriptively. RESULTS: Twenty-three participants from five WHO regions completed the survey. Almost three-quarters of survey participants reported that they, or another member of the tobacco control community in their country, had experienced intimidation. The most frequently reported forms of intimidation were discreditation on social or traditional media, legal threats/action and threatening messages. Physical intimidation, theft/burglary, cyberattacks and surveillance were individually rare but reported collectively by over 40% of participants. Results suggested intimidation might be increasing and changing in nature, and undermines tobacco control efforts: it affects organisations' capacity and agenda, their ability to build relationships with those needed to advance policy, as well as the well-being of individuals. Participants used a range of strategies in response to intimidation and reported that they would benefit from better support. CONCLUSION: This exploratory study suggests that intimidation is a crucial challenge for the tobacco control community. There are several measures the global tobacco control community could take, including establishing an international support mechanism and building capacity to deal with intimidation and draw attention to it.