Mapping the Ecological Terrain of Stroke Prehospital Delay: A Nationwide Registry Study.

BACKGROUND: Delays in hospital presentation limit access to acute stroke treatments. While prior research has focused on patient-level factors, broader ecological and social determinants have not been well studied. We aimed to create a geospatial map of prehospital delay and examine the role of community-level social vulnerability. METHODS: We studied patients with ischemic stroke who arrived by emergency medical services in 2015 to 2017 from the American Heart Association Get With The Guidelines-Stroke registry. The primary outcome was time to hospital arrival after stroke (in minutes), beginning at last known well in most cases. Using Geographic Information System mapping, we displayed the geography of delay. We then used Cox proportional hazard models to study the relationship between community-level factors and arrival time (adjusted hazard ratios [aHR] <1.0 indicate delay). The primary exposure was the social vulnerability index (SVI), a metric of social vulnerability for every ZIP Code Tabulation Area ranging from 0.0 to 1.0. RESULTS: Of 750 336 patients, 149 145 met inclusion criteria. The mean age was 73 years, and 51% were female. The median time to hospital arrival was 140 minutes (Q1: 60 minutes, Q3: 458 minutes). The geospatial map revealed that many zones of delay overlapped with socially vulnerable areas (https://harvard-cga.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html?id=08f6e885c71b457f83cefc71013bcaa7). Cox models (aHR, 95% CI) confirmed that higher SVI, including quartiles 3 (aHR, 0.96 [95% CI, 0.93-0.98]) and 4 (aHR, 0.93 [95% CI, 0.91-0.95]), was associated with delay. Patients from SVI quartile 4 neighborhoods arrived 15.6 minutes [15-16.2] slower than patients from SVI quartile 1. Specific SVI themes associated with delay were a community's socioeconomic status (aHR, 0.80 [95% CI, 0.74-0.85]) and housing type and transportation (aHR, 0.89 [95% CI, 0.84-0.94]). CONCLUSIONS: This map of acute stroke presentation times shows areas with a high incidence of delay. Increased social vulnerability characterizes these areas. Such places should be systematically targeted to improve population-level stroke presentation times.

Association between the social vulnerability index and breast, cervical, and colorectal cancer screening rates in Rhode Island.

BACKGROUND: Cancer screening is effective in reducing the burden of breast, cervical, and colorectal cancers, but not all communities have appropriate access to these services. In this study, we aimed to identify under-resourced communities by assessing the association between the Social Vulnerability Index (SVI) with screening rates for breast, cervical, and colorectal cancers in ZIP-code tabulation areas (ZCTAs) in Rhode Island. METHODS: This study leveraged deidentified health insurance claims data from HealthFacts RI, the state's all-payer claims database, to calculate screening rates for breast, cervical, and colorectal cancers using Healthcare Effectiveness Data and Information Set measures. We used spatial autoregressive Tobit models to assess the association between the SVI, its four domains, and its 15 component variables with screening rates in 2019, accounting for spatial dependencies. RESULTS: In 2019, 73.2, 65.0, and 66.1% of eligible individuals were screened for breast, cervical, and colorectal cancer, respectively. For every 1-unit increase in the SVI, screening rates for breast and colorectal cancer were lower by 0.07% (95% CI 0.01-0.08%) and 0.08% (95% CI 0.02-0.15%), respectively. With higher scores on the SVI's socioeconomic domain, screening rates for all three types of cancers were lower. CONCLUSION: The SVI, especially its socioeconomic domain, is a useful tool for identifying areas that are under-served by current efforts to expand access to screening for breast, cervical, and colorectal cancer. These areas should be prioritized for new place-based partnerships that address barriers to screening at the individual and community level.

PROVIDENT: Development and Validation of a Machine Learning Model to Predict Neighborhood-level Overdose Risk in Rhode Island.

BACKGROUND: Drug overdose persists as a leading cause of death in the United States, but resources to address it remain limited. As a result, health authorities must consider where to allocate scarce resources within their jurisdictions. Machine learning offers a strategy to identify areas with increased future overdose risk to proactively allocate overdose prevention resources. This modeling study is embedded in a randomized trial to measure the effect of proactive resource allocation on statewide overdose rates in Rhode Island (RI). METHODS: We used statewide data from RI from 2016 to 2020 to develop an ensemble machine learning model predicting neighborhood-level fatal overdose risk. Our ensemble model integrated gradient boosting machine and super learner base models in a moving window framework to make predictions in 6-month intervals. Our performance target, developed a priori with the RI Department of Health, was to identify the 20% of RI neighborhoods containing at least 40% of statewide overdose deaths, including at least one neighborhood per municipality. The model was validated after trial launch. RESULTS: Our model selected priority neighborhoods capturing 40.2% of statewide overdose deaths during the test periods and 44.1% of statewide overdose deaths during validation periods. Our ensemble outperformed the base models during the test periods and performed comparably to the best-performing base model during the validation periods. CONCLUSIONS: We demonstrated the capacity for machine learning models to predict neighborhood-level fatal overdose risk to a degree of accuracy suitable for practitioners. Jurisdictions may consider predictive modeling as a tool to guide allocation of scarce resources.

"Make it more than a pill, make it an experience of health:" results from an open pilot intervention to retain young African American men who have sex with men in PrEP care.

Uptake and retention in clinical care for pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) is suboptimal, particularly among young African American men who have sex with men (MSM) in the Deep South. We conducted a two-phase study to develop and implement an intervention to increase PrEP persistence. In Phase I, we conducted focus groups with 27 young African American MSM taking PrEP at a community health center in Jackson, Mississippi to elicit recommendations for the PrEP persistence intervention. We developed an intervention based on recommendations in Phase I, and in Phase II, ten participants were enrolled in an open pilot. Eight participants completed Phase II study activities, including a single intervention session, phone call check-ins, and four assessments (Months 0, 1, 3, and 6). Exit interviews demonstrated a high level of acceptability and satisfaction with the intervention. These formative data demonstrate the initial promise of a novel intervention to improve PrEP persistence among young African American MSM.

Public Health Dashboards in Overdose Prevention: The Rhode Island Approach to Public Health Data Literacy, Partnerships, and Action.

As the field of public health rises to the demands of real-time surveillance and rapid data-sharing needs in a postpandemic world, it is time to examine our approaches to the dissemination and accessibility of such data. Distinct challenges exist when working to develop a shared public health language and narratives based on data. It requires that we assess our understanding of public health data literacy, revisit our approach to communication and engagement, and continuously evaluate our impact and relevance. Key stakeholders and cocreators are critical to this process and include people with lived experience, community organizations, governmental partners, and research institutions. In this viewpoint paper, we offer an instructive approach to the tools we used, assessed, and adapted across 3 unique overdose data dashboard projects in Rhode Island, United States. We are calling this model the "Rhode Island Approach to Public Health Data Literacy, Partnerships, and Action." This approach reflects the iterative lessons learned about the improvement of data dashboards through collaboration and strong partnerships across community members, state agencies, and an academic research team. We will highlight key tools and approaches that are accessible and engaging and allow developers and stakeholders to self-assess their goals for their data dashboards and evaluate engagement with these tools by their desired audiences and users.

A Network Science Approach to Sex-Polydrug Use Among Black Sexually Minoritized Men and Transgender Women: The N2 Cohort Study.

Black sexually minoritized men (SMM) and transgender women (TW) are subgroups with lower rates of substance use and comparable rates of condom use relative to White SMM and TW yet experience heightened vulnerability to HIV. This study sought to explore associations of substance use, including sex-drug use (i.e., drug or alcohol use during sex to enhance sex), and condomless sex among Black SMM and TW. Data were collected from Black SMM and TW living in Chicago, Illinois, enrolled in the Neighborhoods and Networks (N2) cohort study, from November 2018 to April 2019. We used bivariate analyses followed by a multilevel egocentric network analysis to identify factors associated with condomless sex. We conducted Spearman correlation coefficients to examine correlations between pairs of sex-drugs to enhance sex. We used a bipartite network analysis to identify correlates of sex-drug use and condomless sex. A total of 352 Black SMM and TW (egos) provided information about 933 sexual partners (alters). Of respondents, 45% reported condomless sex and 61% reported sex-drug use. In unadjusted analyses, marijuana (34%) and cocaine/crack (5%) sex-drug use were associated with condomless sex (p < 0.05). Condomless sex was positively associated with sex-polydrug use, or the use of 2+ drugs or 1 drug and alcohol (OR = 1.48; 95% CI: 1.02-2.14; p = 0.039), and negatively associated with sharing an HIV-negative serostatus with a sexual partner (OR = 0.57; 95% CI: 0.33-0.98; p = 0.041), having a different HIV serostatus with a sexual partner (OR = 0.37; 95% CI: 0.21-0.64; p < 0.001) or not knowing the HIV serostatus of a sexual partner (OR = 0.47; 95% CI: 0.26-0.84; p = 0.011). The following pairs of sex-polydrug use had Spearman correlation coefficients higher than 0.3: marijuana and alcohol, ecstasy and alcohol, cocaine/crack and ecstasy, and methamphetamine and poppers (p < 0.05). HIV prevention interventions for Black SMM and TW designed to reduce HIV transmission through egocentric sexual networks could address sex-drug use through sex-positive and pleasure-centered harm reduction strategies and provide and promote biomedical prevention and care options at supraoptimal levels.

Translating Predictive Analytics for Public Health Practice: A Case Study of Overdose Prevention in Rhode Island.

Prior applications of machine learning to population health have relied on conventional model assessment criteria, limiting the utility of models as decision support tools for public health practitioners. To facilitate practitioners' use of machine learning as a decision support tool for area-level intervention, we developed and applied 4 practice-based predictive model evaluation criteria (implementation capacity, preventive potential, health equity, and jurisdictional practicalities). We used a case study of overdose prevention in Rhode Island to illustrate how these criteria could inform public health practice and health equity promotion. We used Rhode Island overdose mortality records from January 2016-June 2020 (n = 1,408) and neighborhood-level US Census data. We employed 2 disparate machine learning models, Gaussian process and random forest, to illustrate the comparative utility of our criteria to guide interventions. Our models predicted 7.5%-36.4% of overdose deaths during the test period, illustrating the preventive potential of overdose interventions assuming 5%-20% statewide implementation capacities for neighborhood-level resource deployment. We describe the health equity implications of use of predictive modeling to guide interventions along the lines of urbanicity, racial/ethnic composition, and poverty. We then discuss considerations to complement predictive model evaluation criteria and inform the prevention and mitigation of spatially dynamic public health problems across the breadth of practice. This article is part of a Special Collection on Mental Health.

Sexual Orientation, HIV Vulnerability-Enhancing Behaviors and HIV Status Neutral Care Among Black Cisgender Sexual Minority Men in the Deep South: The N2 Cohort Study.

Black sexual minority men (SMM) in the Deep South are heavily impacted by HIV; yet studies fail to consider discordance across aspects of sexual orientation (i.e., identity, attraction, behavior) or how a lack of concordance enhances vulnerability to HIV. We sought to explore the overlap across aspects of sexual orientation and examine associations between each aspect and the number of sexual partners who engaged in HIV vulnerability-enhancing behaviors, and HIV prevention and care outcomes. A total of 204 Black SMM completed surveys, reporting their sexual identity, attraction, and behavior (i.e., sex with men only vs. sex with men and women), number of condomless sex or transactional sex (e.g., buyers vs. sellers) partners in the past 6 months, and adherence to pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) or antiretroviral therapy (ART) among users. Less than one in four participants (22.5%) reported overlap in same-sex sexual orientations, while 17.1% of bisexual men reported overlap across aspects. In multivariable models, differences were found in how aspects of sexual orientation were associated with the number of partners who bought or sold sex; as well as how often participants tested for HIV in the past 12 months. Results suggest different aspects of sexual orientation have implications for addressing HIV among Black SMM in the Deep South.

RESUMEN: Los hombres negros de minorías sexuales (SMM) en el Sur Profundo de los Estados Unidos se ven gravemente afectados por el VIH; sin embargo, los estudios no suelen considerar la discrepancia entre los diferentes aspectos de la orientación sexual (es decir, identidad, atracción, comportamiento) o cómo la falta de concordancia aumenta la vulnerabilidad al VIH. Buscamos explorar el grado de concordancia entre los aspectos de la orientación sexual y examinar las asociaciones entre cada aspecto y la cantidad de parejas sexuales que se involucraron en comportamientos que incrementan la vulnerabilidad al VIH y los resultados de la prevención y atención del VIH. Un total de 204 hombres negros de SMM completaron encuestas sobre su identidad sexual, atracción y comportamiento (es decir, sexo solo con hombres frente a hombres y mujeres), número de parejas sexuales sin condón o sexo transaccional (p. ej., compradores frente a vendedores) en los últimos seis meses, y la adherencia a la profilaxis previa a la exposición (PrEP) o la terapia antirretroviral (TAR) entre los que utilizan estas tecnologías médicas. Menos de uno de cada cuatro participantes (22.5%) reportaron concordancia entre los distintos aspectos de la orientación sexual, mientras que el 17.1% de los hombres bisexuales reportaron concordancia en todos los aspectos. Utilizando modelos multivariables, se encontraron diferencias en el grado de asociación entre los diferentes aspectos de la orientación sexual y el número de parejas que compraron o vendieron sexo, así como entre los distintos aspectos de la orientación sexual y la frecuencia con la que los participantes se hicieron la prueba del VIH en los últimos 12 meses. Los resultados sugieren que diferentes aspectos de la orientación sexual tienen implicaciones para abordar el VIH entre los SMM negros en el Sur Profundo.

Latent Profile Patterns of Network-Level Norms and Associations with Individual-Level Sexual Behaviors: The N2 Cohort Study in Chicago.

Individual-level behavior can be influenced by injunctive and descriptive social network norms surrounding that behavior. There is a need to understand how the influence of social norms within an individual's social networks may influence individual-level sexual behavior. We aimed to typologize the network-level norms of sexual behaviors within the social networks of Black sexual and gender minoritized groups (SGM) assigned male at birth. Survey data were collected in Chicago, Illinois, USA, between 2018 and 2019 from Black SGM. A total of 371 participants provided individual-level information about sociodemographic characteristics and HIV vulnerability from sex (i.e., condomless sex, group sex, use of alcohol/drugs to enhance sex) and completed an egocentric network inventory assessing perceptions of their social network members' (alters') injunctive and descriptive norms surrounding sexual behaviors with increased HIV vulnerability. We used Latent Profile Analysis (LPA) to identify network-level norms based on the proportion of alters' approval of the participant engaging in condomless sex, group sex, and use of drugs to enhance sex (i.e., injunctive norms) and alters' engagement in these behaviors (i.e., descriptive norms). We then used binomial regression analyses to examine associations between network-level norm profiles and individual-level HIV vulnerability from sex. The results of our LPA indicated that our sample experienced five distinct latent profiles of network-level norms: (1) low HIV vulnerability network norm, (2) moderately high HIV vulnerability network norm, (3) high HIV vulnerability network norm, (4) condomless sex dominant network norm, and (5) approval of drug use during sex dominant network norm. Condomless anal sex, group sex, and using drugs to enhance sex were positively and significantly associated with higher HIV vulnerability social network norm profiles, relative to low HIV vulnerability norm profiles. To mitigate Black SGM's HIV vulnerability, future HIV risk reduction strategies can consider using network-level intervention approaches such as opinion leaders, segmentation, induction, or alteration, through an intersectionality framework.

Identifying Predictors of Opioid Overdose Death at a Neighborhood Level With Machine Learning.

Predictors of opioid overdose death in neighborhoods are important to identify, both to understand characteristics of high-risk areas and to prioritize limited prevention and intervention resources. Machine learning methods could serve as a valuable tool for identifying neighborhood-level predictors. We examined statewide data on opioid overdose death from Rhode Island (log-transformed rates for 2016-2019) and 203 covariates from the American Community Survey for 742 US Census block groups. The analysis included a least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) algorithm followed by variable importance rankings from a random forest algorithm. We employed double cross-validation, with 10 folds in the inner loop to train the model and 4 outer folds to assess predictive performance. The ranked variables included a range of dimensions of socioeconomic status, including education, income and wealth, residential stability, race/ethnicity, social isolation, and occupational status. The R2 value of the model on testing data was 0.17. While many predictors of overdose death were in established domains (education, income, occupation), we also identified novel domains (residential stability, racial/ethnic distribution, and social isolation). Predictive modeling with machine learning can identify new neighborhood-level predictors of overdose in the continually evolving opioid epidemic and anticipate the neighborhoods at high risk of overdose mortality.

Spillover benefit of pre-exposure prophylaxis for HIV prevention: evaluating the importance of effect modification using an agent-based model.

We developed an agent-based model using a trial emulation approach to quantify effect measure modification of spillover effects of pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) for HIV among men who have sex with men (MSM) in the Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell metropolitan area, Georgia. PrEP may impact not only the individual prescribed, but also their partners and beyond, known as spillover. We simulated a two-stage randomised trial with eligible components (≥3 agents with ≥1 HIV+ agent) first randomised to intervention or control (no PrEP). Within intervention components, agents were randomised to PrEP with coverage of 70%, providing insight into a high PrEP coverage strategy. We evaluated effect modification by component-level characteristics and estimated spillover effects on HIV incidence using an extension of randomisation-based estimators. We observed an attenuation of the spillover effect when agents were in components with a higher prevalence of either drug use or bridging potential (if an agent acts as a mediator between ≥2 connected groups of agents). The estimated spillover effects were larger in magnitude among components with either higher HIV prevalence or greater density (number of existing partnerships compared to all possible partnerships). Consideration of effect modification is important when evaluating the spillover of PrEP among MSM.

Characterizing Awareness of Pre-Exposure Prophylaxis for HIV Prevention in Manila and Cebu, Philippines: Web-Based Survey of Filipino Cisgender Men Who Have Sex With Men.

BACKGROUND: The Philippines is experiencing an HIV crisis and is considering implementing pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) as a national public health strategy for HIV prevention for cisgender men who have sex with men (cis-MSM). However, critical information on the awareness of PrEP among cis-MSM is needed to roll out this public health initiative. OBJECTIVE: This study aims to assess PrEP awareness and related correlates (ie, sociodemographic variables, social factors, and health care access and use) among Filipino cis-MSM. METHODS: We conducted a web-based survey with Filipino cis-MSM (n=179) residing in the cities of Manila and Cebu, Philippines. Multivariable analysis procedures were performed to examine the factors associated with PrEP awareness. RESULTS: Our sample demonstrated high awareness (134/179, 74.9%) and interest (159/179, 88.8%) in taking PrEP. The adjusted model showed that greater odds of PrEP awareness were associated with having a college education or higher versus a high school education or lower (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 7.30, 95% CI 1.01-52.47), earning between PHP 10,000 (US $198.6) and PHP 20,000 (US $397.2) versus

Disseminated Effects in Agent-Based Models: A Potential Outcomes Framework and Application to Inform Preexposure Prophylaxis Coverage Levels for HIV Prevention.

Preexposure prophylaxis (PrEP) for prevention of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection may benefit not only the person who uses it but also their uninfected sexual risk contacts. We developed an agent-based model using a novel trial emulation approach to quantify disseminated effects of PrEP use among men who have sex with men in Atlanta, Georgia, from 2015 to 2017. Model components (subsets of agents connected through partnerships in a sexual network but not sharing partnerships with any other agents) were first randomized to an intervention coverage level or the control group; then, within intervention components, eligible agents were randomized to receive or not receive PrEP. We calculated direct and disseminated (indirect) effects using randomization-based estimators and report corresponding 95% simulation intervals across scenarios ranging from 10% coverage in the intervention components to 90% coverage. A population of 11,245 agents was simulated, with an average of 1,551 components identified. When comparing agents randomized to no PrEP in 70% coverage components with control agents, there was a 15% disseminated risk reduction in HIV incidence (risk ratio = 0.85, 95% simulation interval: 0.65, 1.05). Persons not on PrEP may receive a protective benefit by being in a sexual network with higher PrEP coverage. Agent-based models are useful for evaluating possible direct and disseminated effects of HIV prevention modalities in sexual networks.

Seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 Antibodies in Rhode Island From a Statewide Random Sample.

Objectives. To characterize statewide seroprevalence and point prevalence of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) in Rhode Island.Methods. We conducted a cross-sectional survey of randomly selected households across Rhode Island in May 2020. Antibody-based and polymerase chain reaction (PCR)-based tests for SARS-CoV-2 were offered. Hispanics/Latinos and African Americans/Blacks were oversampled to ensure adequate representation. Seroprevalence estimations accounted for test sensitivity and specificity and were compared according to age, race/ethnicity, gender, housing environment, and transportation mode.Results. Overall, 1043 individuals from 554 households were tested (1032 antibody tests, 988 PCR tests). The estimated seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies was 2.1% (95% credible interval [CI] = 0.6, 4.1). Seroprevalence was 7.5% (95% CI = 1.3, 17.5) among Hispanics/Latinos, 3.8% (95% CI = 0.0, 15.0) among African Americans/Blacks, and 0.8% (95% CI = 0.0, 2.4) among non-Hispanic Whites. Overall PCR-based prevalence was 1.5% (95% CI = 0.5, 3.1).Conclusions. Rhode Island had low seroprevalence relative to other settings, but seroprevalence was substantially higher among African Americans/Blacks and Hispanics/Latinos. Rhode Island sits along the highly populated northeast corridor, making our findings broadly relevant to this region of the country. Continued monitoring via population-based sampling is needed to quantify these impacts going forward.

Sexual Identity, Sexual Behavior and Pre-exposure Prophylaxis in Black Cisgender Sexual Minority Men: The N2 Cohort Study in Chicago.

This study investigated sexual identity and behavior and their potential associations with PrEP use and attitudes in cisgender Black gay and bisexual men. A total of N = 173 (mean age 25.2) participants from the Neighborhoods and Networks (N2) Study in Chicago were included. Of these, 104 were gay-identified and reported sex with men only (GSMO), 26 were gay-identified and reported sex with men and women (GSMW), 8 were bisexual-identified and reported sex with men only (BSMO), and 35 were bisexual-identified and reported sex with men and women (BSMW). Reporting sex with men and women in the past 6 months, RR = 0.39, 95% CI [0.17, 0.89], identifying as bisexual, RR = 0.52, 95% CI [0.29, 0.92], and the combination of the two, RR = 0.24, 95% CI [0.07, 0.76] were significantly associated with lower rates of current oral PrEP use. Black bisexual-identifying men who reported sex with men and women were significantly more likely to have discontinued oral PrEP, RR = 2.50, 95% CI [1.14, 5.50], than Black gay-identified men who reported sex with men only. Participants who had not used oral PrEP before reported lower levels of interest in long-acting injectable PrEP than those who were currently using oral PrEP, RR = 0.56, 95% CI [0.40, 0.79]. No other significant differences were found. Overlooking the combination of sexual identity and behavior may mischaracterize PrEP rates and miss uniquely vulnerable subgroups. Black gay and bisexual men who had not used oral PrEP may be particularly disinterested in long-acting injectable PrEP.

Gay and Bisexual Men's Recommendations for Effective Digital Social Marketing Campaigns to Enhance HIV Prevention and Care Continuity.

Because use of geosocial-networking smartphone applications ('apps') is ubiquitous among men who have sex with men (MSM), online-to-offline service models that include advertisements on these apps may improve engagement with effective HIV prevention and treatment services. Through our formative qualitative study, we conducted individual in-depth interviews (n = 30) and focus group discussions (n = 18) with MSM in Rhode Island to develop a digital social marketing campaign aimed at increasing HIV testing, including how best to reach men by advertising on apps. Qualitative data analysis revealed that participants were frequently exposed to pop-up advertisements on apps. These advertisements are viewed as invasive and, as such, many expressed a preference for other formats (e.g., direct messages, banner advertisements). Men expressed a preference for provocative images and phrases to catch their attention followed with fact-driven messaging to motivate them to engage with services offline. Findings from this study offer several practical recommendations for developing a social marketing campaign that uses advertisements on apps to increase HIV testing among MSM, including using formats other than pop-up advertisements and pairing fact-driven messaging with eye-catching images to direct them to trusted local clinical services.

Implementation of Syringe Services Programs to Prevent Rapid Human Immunodeficiency Virus Transmission in Rural Counties in the United States: A Modeling Study.

BACKGROUND: Syringe services programs (SSPs) are effective venues for delivering harm-reduction services to people who inject drugs (PWID). However, SSPs often face significant barriers to implementation, particularly in the absence of known human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) outbreaks. METHODS: Using an agent-based model, we simulated HIV transmission in Scott County, Indiana, a rural county with a 1.7% prevalence of injection drug use. We compared outcomes arising in the absence of an SSP, in the presence of a pre-existing SSP, and with implementation of an SSP after the detection of an HIV outbreak among PWID over 5 years following the introduction of a single infection into the network. RESULTS: In the absence of an SSP, the model predicted an average of 176 infections among PWID over 5 years or an incidence rate of 12.1/100 person-years. Proactive implementation averted 154 infections and decreased incidence by 90.3%. With reactive implementation beginning operations 10 months after the first infection, an SSP would prevent 107 infections and decrease incidence by 60.8%. Reductions in incidence were also observed among people who did not inject drugs. CONCLUSIONS: Based on model predictions, proactive implementation of an SSP in Scott County had the potential to avert more HIV infections than reactive implementation after the detection of an outbreak. The predicted impact of reactive SSP implementation was highly dependent on timely implementation after detecting the earliest infections. Consequently, there is a need for expanded proactive SSP implementation in the context of enhanced monitoring of outbreak vulnerability in Scott County and similar rural contexts.

Social-Environmental Resilience, PrEP Uptake, and Viral Suppression among Young Black Men Who Have Sex with Men and Young Black Transgender Women: the Neighborhoods and Networks (N2) Study in Chicago.

Young black men who have sex with men (YBMSM) and young black transgender women (TGW) have experienced a stark disparity in HIV prevention and care. Resilience, collective resources to adapt stressors or adversities, may improve HIV prevention and care outcomes. The present study investigated the association of resilience-based factors with PrEP uptake and viral suppression from a socioecological perspective among YBMSM and young black TGW. Data were from the baseline cycle of the Neighborhoods and Networks (N2) Study, an ongoing cohort study of 16-34-year-old YBMSM and young black TGW in Chicago (n = 324). Confidant network-level and neighborhood affiliation variables were created to measure the social-environmental context of resilience. All analyses were stratified by participants' HIV status (184 HIV-negative participants and 140 HIV-positive participants). Among HIV-negative participants, having a parental figure within an individual's confidant network was significantly associated with a greater likelihood of PrEP use. Among HIV-positive participants, confidant network members' awareness of an individual's HIV status was associated with viral suppression. Social support resources from confidant networks could improve HIV prevention and care engagement among YBMSM and young black TGW. Understanding the social and environmental contexts of resilience resource is critical for HIV prevention and care engagement.

Defining a recovery-oriented cascade of care for opioid use disorder: A community-driven, statewide cross-sectional assessment.

BACKGROUND: In light of the accelerating and rapidly evolving overdose crisis in the United States (US), new strategies are needed to address the epidemic and to efficiently engage and retain individuals in care for opioid use disorder (OUD). Moreover, there is an increasing need for novel approaches to using health data to identify gaps in the cascade of care for persons with OUD. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Between June 2018 and May 2019, we engaged a diverse stakeholder group (including directors of statewide health and social service agencies) to develop a statewide, patient-centered cascade of care for OUD for Rhode Island, a small state in New England, a region highly impacted by the opioid crisis. Through an iterative process, we modified the cascade of care defined by Williams et al. for use in Rhode Island using key national survey data and statewide health claims datasets to create a cross-sectional summary of 5 stages in the cascade. Approximately 47,000 Rhode Islanders (5.2%) were estimated to be at risk for OUD (stage 0) in 2016. At the same time, 26,000 Rhode Islanders had a medical claim related to an OUD diagnosis, accounting for 55% of the population at risk (stage 1); 27% of the stage 0 population, 12,700 people, showed evidence of initiation of medication for OUD (MOUD, stage 2), and 18%, or 8,300 people, had evidence of retention on MOUD (stage 3). Imputation from a national survey estimated that 4,200 Rhode Islanders were in recovery from OUD as of 2016, representing 9% of the total population at risk. Limitations included use of self-report data to arrive at estimates of the number of individuals at risk for OUD and using a national estimate to identify the number of individuals in recovery due to a lack of available state data sources. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings indicate that cross-sectional summaries of the cascade of care for OUD can be used as a health policy tool to identify gaps in care, inform data-driven policy decisions, set benchmarks for quality, and improve health outcomes for persons with OUD. There exists a significant opportunity to increase engagement prior to the initiation of OUD treatment (i.e., identification of OUD symptoms via routine screening or acute presentation) and improve retention and remission from OUD symptoms through improved community-supported processes of recovery. To do this more precisely, states should work to systematically collect data to populate their own cascade of care as a health policy tool to enhance system-level interventions and maximize engagement in care.

Increased Risk of Opioid Overdose Death Following Cold Weather: A Case-Crossover Study.

BACKGROUND: The United States is in the midst of an opioid overdose crisis. Little is known about the role of environmental factors in increasing risk of fatal opioid overdose. METHODS: We conducted a case-crossover analysis of 3,275 opioid overdose deaths recorded in Connecticut and Rhode Island in 2014-2017. We compared the mean ambient temperature on the day of death, as well as average temperature up to 14 days before death, to referent periods matched on year, month, and day of week. RESULTS: Low average temperatures over the 3-7 days before death were associated with higher odds of fatal opioid overdose. Relative to 11°C, an average temperature of 0°C over the 7 days before death was associated with a 30% higher odds of death (odds ratio: 1.3; 95% confidence interval, 1.1, 1.5). CONCLUSIONS: Low average temperature may be associated with higher risk of death due to opioid overdose.