Estimation of the infection attack rate of mumps in an outbreak among college students using paired serology.

Mumps virus is a highly transmissible pathogen that is effectively controlled in countries with high vaccination coverage. Nevertheless, outbreaks have occurred worldwide over the past decades in vaccinated populations. Here we analyse an outbreak of mumps virus genotype G among college students in the Netherlands over the period 2009-2012 using paired serological data. To identify infections in the presence of preexisting antibodies we compared mumps specific serum IgG concentrations in two consecutive samples (n=746), whereby the first sample was taken when students started their study prior to the outbreaks, and the second sample was taken 2-5 years later. We fit a binary mixture model to the data. The two mixing distributions represent uninfected and infected classes. Throughout we assume that the infection probability increases with the ratio of antibody concentrations of the second to first sample. The estimated infection attack rate in this study is higher than reported earlier (0.095 versus 0.042). The analyses yield probabilistic classifications of participants, which are mostly quite precise owing to the high intraclass correlation of samples in uninfected participants (0.85, 95%CrI: 0.82-0.87). The estimated probability of infection increases with decreasing antibody concentration in the pre-outbreak sample, such that the probability of infection is 0.12 (95%CrI: 0.10-0.13) for the lowest quartile of the pre-outbreak samples and 0.056 (95%CrI: 0.044-0.068) for the highest quartile. We discuss the implications of these insights for the design of booster vaccination strategies.

The Impact of Timing of Pertussis Vaccination During Pregnancy on Infant Antibody Levels at Birth: A Multi-Country Analysis.

Background: Pertussis vaccination during pregnancy is an effective strategy at reducing pertussis-related morbidity and mortality in infancy and is recommended across several countries. However, the optimal timepoint for vaccination in pregnancy to afford maximal protection to newborns is yet to be elucidated. This multi-country analysis aimed to model the impact of timing of vaccination during pregnancy on infant antibody titers at birth. Methods: A multi-country analysis on a cohort of mother-infant pairs (n=698) vaccinated between 19.6-37.1 weeks gestation was conducted. Data taken from four parent studies on pertussis vaccination during pregnancy were modelled using natural cubic splines and linear mixed models to study the association of both gestational age at vaccination and the interval between vaccination and delivery with pertussis-specific cord blood antibody levels after pertussis vaccination during pregnancy. Results: Term born infants on average achieve the highest antibody levels at birth if women are vaccinated before 31 weeks' gestation. When considering both term and preterm deliveries, an interval of at least 7.5 weeks between vaccination and delivery is required to achieve the highest cord blood antibody levels. The models show that vaccinating earlier than these timeframes will also provide the infant with equally high antibody levels at birth. Conclusions: Vaccinating in the second and early third trimester results in the highest antibody levels at birth. Vaccinating earlier within this window is needed to provide equal benefits to both term and preterm born infants.