Incidence of late recurrence and second primary cancers 5-10 years after non-metastatic colorectal cancer.

The fraction of patients who are cancer-free survivors 5 years after curative-intended surgery for colorectal cancer (CRC) is increasing, suggesting that extending surveillance beyond 5 years may be indicated. Here we estimate the incidence of late recurrence, metachronous CRC, and second primary cancers 5-10 years postoperative. All patients resected for UICC stage I-III CRC in Denmark through 2004-2013 were identified. Through individual-level linkage of nationwide health registry data, recurrence status was determined using a validated algorithm. Cancer-free survivors 5 years after surgery, were included. Cumulative incidence functions (CIF) of late recurrence, metachronous CRC, and second primary cancer 5-10 years postoperative were constructed. Subdistribution hazards ratios (sHR) were computed using Fine-Gray regression. Among 8883 patients, 370 developed late recurrence (5-10-year CIF = 4.1%, 95%CI: 3.7%-4.6%), 270 metachronous CRC (5-10-year CIF = 3.0%, 95%CI: 2.7%-3.4%), and 635 a second primary cancer (5-10-year CIF = 7.2%, 95%CI: 6.7%-7.7%). The risk of late recurrence was reduced for patients operated in 2009-2013 compared to 2004-2008 (2.9% vs. 5.6%, sHR = 0.52, 95% CI: 0.42-0.65). The risk of metachronous CRC was likewise reduced from 4.1% to 2.1% (sHR = 0.50, 95%CI: 0.39-0.65). While the risk of second primary cancer did not change between 2009-2013 and 2004-2008 (7.1% vs. 7.1%, sHR = 0.98, 95% CI: 0.84-1.15). Using nation-wide 10-year follow-up data, we document that the incidences of late recurrence and metachronous CRC are low and decreasing from 2004 to 2013. Thus, despite increasing numbers of long-term cancer survivors, the data do not advocate for extending CRC-specific surveillance beyond 5 years.

The effect of antithrombotic treatment on the fecal immunochemical test for colorectal cancer screening: a nationwide cross-sectional study.

BACKGROUND : Screening for colorectal cancer (CRC) using the fecal immunochemical test (FIT) has been widely adopted. The use of antithrombotic treatment is increasing in the Western world. This study aimed to assess the effects of antithrombotic treatment on the FIT-based Danish national screening program for CRC. METHODS : This was a cross-sectional study of all individuals returning a FIT from 2014 until 2016. The effect of antithrombotic treatment on FIT positivity and the positive predictive value (PPV) were assessed using proportions and multivariable Poisson regression. RESULTS : Of 884 036 invited individuals, we identified 551 570 participants. A positive FIT was observed in 9052 of 77 007 individuals (11.8 %) receiving antithrombotic treatment compared with 28 387 of 474 587 individuals (6.0 %) receiving no treatment. The adjusted relative risk (RR) for a positive FIT was 1.59 (95 %CI 1.56-1.63) for any treatment. Nonvitamin K oral anticoagulants (NOACs) were associated with the largest increase in FIT positivity (adjusted RR 2.40, 95 %CI 2.48-2.54). The proportion of CRC detected at colonoscopy was slightly lower among patients on antithrombotic treatment (6.0 %, 95 %CI 5.5 %-6.6 %) than among treatment-naïve patients (6.4 %, 95 %CI 6.1 %-6.7 %). The PPV for CRC or high risk adenomas was decreased nearly twofold in patients treated with NOAC (adjusted RR 0.58, 95 %CI 0.51-0.66]). CONCLUSION : Antithrombotic treatment was associated with a decreased PPV in FIT-based CRC screening.

Incidence of Recurrence and Time to Recurrence in Stage I to III Colorectal Cancer: A Nationwide Danish Cohort Study.

Importance: Management of colorectal cancer (CRC) has been updated continuously over the past 2 decades. While the combination of these initiatives has had implications for improved survival, the implications for rates of recurrence remain unexplored. Objective: To ascertain the rates of recurrence and describe time to recurrence within 5 years of surgery with curative intent for stages I to III CRC. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cohort study used the Danish Colorectal Cancer Group Database to identify patients with Union for International Cancer Control (UICC) stages I to III CRC who underwent primary surgery between January 1, 2004, and December 31, 2019. They were followed up until recurrence (event), death (competing event), diagnosis of a second cancer (competing event), emigration (censoring event), 5 years postoperatively (censoring event), or January 1, 2023 (censoring event), whichever came first. Recurrence status was ascertained through individual-level linked data from the Danish Cancer Registry, Danish National Patient Registry, and Danish Pathology Registry using a validated algorithm. Data were analyzed from January 1 to August 8, 2023. Exposure: Primary surgery performed during 3 calendar periods (2004-2008, 2009-2013, and 2014-2019) stratified by tumor site (colon or rectum) and UICC stage (I, II, and III). Main Outcomes and Measures: Stage-specific 5-year recurrence reported as the cumulative incidence function (CIF) of recurrence, the association between calendar period of primary surgery and recurrence risk reported as subdistribution hazard ratios (sHRs), and the time from surgery to recurrence. Results: Of the 34 166 patients with UICC stages I to III CRC (median [IQR] age, 70 [62-77] years); 18 552 males [54.3%]) included in the study, 7027 developed recurrence within 5 years after the primary surgery. For colon cancer, the 5-year CIF of recurrence decreased over the 3 calendar periods from 16.3% to 6.8% for UICC stage I, from 21.9% to 11.6% for UICC stage II, and from 35.3% to 24.6% for UICC stage III colon cancer. For rectal cancer, the 5-year CIF decreased over the 3 periods from 19.9% to 9.5% for stage I, from 25.8% to 18.4% for stage II, and from 38.7% to 28.8% for stage III disease. Patients with stage III disease had a shorter time from surgery to recurrence compared with those with stage I disease (time ratio stage III vs stage I = 0.30; 95% CI, 0.28-0.32). Cancers detected through screening were associated with lower stage-adjusted risks of recurrence (sHR, 0.81; 95% CI, 0.73-0.91) compared with cancers not detected through screening. Conclusions and Relevance: In this cohort of patients with CRC, the risk of recurrence decreased in patients with stages I to III disease during the study period. Cancer detection by screening was associated with an even lower risk of recurrence. Time to recurrence differed according to UICC stage. Because the risk of recurrence was so low in selected patient groups, future research is warranted to explore risk-stratified surveillance protocols in patients with CRC.

Identifying Recurrences Among Non-Metastatic Colorectal Cancer Patients Using National Health Data Registries: Validation and Optimization of a Registry-Based Algorithm in a Modern Danish Cohort.

Purpose: Colorectal cancer (CRC) recurrence is not routinely recorded in Danish health data registries. Here, we aimed to revalidate a registry-based algorithm to identify recurrences in a contemporary cohort and to investigate the accuracy of estimating the time to recurrence (TTR). Patients and Methods: We ascertained data on 1129 patients operated for UICC TNM stage I-III CRC during 2012-2017 registered in the CRC biobank at the Department of Molecular Medicine, Aarhus University Hospital, Denmark. Individual-level data were linked with data from the Danish Colorectal Cancer Group database, Danish Cancer Registry, Danish National Registry of Patients, and Danish Pathology Registry. The algorithm identified recurrence based on diagnosis codes of local recurrence or metastases, the receipt of chemotherapy, or a pathological tissue assessment code of recurrence more than 180 days after CRC surgery. A subgroup was selected for validation of the algorithm using medical record reviews as a reference standard. Results: We found a 3-year cumulative recurrence rate of 20% (95% CI: 17-22%). Manual medical record review identified 80 recurrences in the validation cohort of 522 patients. The algorithm detected recurrence with 94% sensitivity (75/80; 95% CI: 86-98%) and 98% specificity (431/442; 95% CI: 96-99%). The positive and negative predictive values of the algorithm were 87% (95% CI: 78-93%) and 99% (95% CI: 97-100%), respectively. The median difference in TTR (TTRMedical_chart-TTRalgorithm) was -8 days (IQR: -21 to +3 days). Restricting the algorithm to chemotherapy codes from oncology departments increased the positive predictive value from 87% to 94% without changing the negative predictive value (99%). Conclusion: The algorithm detected recurrence and TTR with high precision in this contemporary cohort. Restriction to chemotherapy codes from oncology departments using department classifications improves the algorithm. The algorithm is suitable for use in future observational studies.

Impact of Whole Genome Doubling on Detection of Circulating Tumor DNA in Colorectal Cancer.

OBJECTIVE: Circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA) is a candidate biomarker of cancer with practice-changing potential in the detection of both early and residual disease. Disease stage and tumor size affect the probability of ctDNA detection, whereas little is known about the influence of other tumor characteristics on ctDNA detection. This study investigates the impact of tumor cell whole-genome doubling (WGD) on the detection of ctDNA in plasma collected preoperatively from newly diagnosed colorectal cancer (CRC) patients. METHODS: WGD was estimated from copy numbers derived from whole-exome sequencing (WES) data of matched tumor and normal DNA from 833 Danish CRC patients. To explore if tumor WGD status impacts ctDNA detection, we applied tumor-informed ctDNA analysis to preoperative plasma samples from all patients. RESULTS: Patients with WGD+ tumors had 53% increased odds of being ctDNA positive (OR = 1.53, 95%CI: 1.12-2.09). After stratification for UICC stage, the association persisted for Stage I (OR = 2.44, 95%CI: 1.22-5.03) and Stage II (OR = 1.76, 95%CI: 1.11-2.81) but not for Stage III (OR = 0.83, 95%CI: 0.44-1.53) patients. CONCLUSION: The presence of WGD significantly increases the probability of detecting ctDNA, particularly for early-stage disease. In patients with more advanced disease, the benefit of WGD on ctDNA detection is less pronounced, consistent with increased DNA shedding from these tumors, making ctDNA detection less dependent on the amount of ctDNA released per tumor cell.

Preoperative findings on non-specific CT in patients with primary acute intestinal ischemia: a case-control study.

PURPOSE: Primary acute intestinal ischaemia (AII) is an abdominal catastrophe caused by intravascular obstruction of blood supply. It is difficult to diagnose. Computerized tomography (CT) scan is the modality of choice for diagnostic evaluation. Majority of previous studies have evaluated CT findings in patients where AII was suspected. However, unveiling the unique radiological findings also in not initially suspected AII patients, might lead to the timely management of AII patients, and is the aim of this study. METHODS: In a single-center, retrospective case-control study, preoperative radiological findings from abdominal CT scans in 48 patients with primary AII were compared with 80 non-ischemic controls. Radiological findings were analyzed using multivariable logistical regression with adjustment for age and gender and reported as odds ratios (OR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI) and p values. RESULTS: Thirty-nine (81%) cases with AII were referred to an abdominal CT scan without a specific clinical suspicion of AII. Three main radiological categories (intestinal wall pathology [OR 7.4, CI 2.3-24.0, p value < 0.001], gastrointestinal vessel pathology [OR 19.3, CI 4.6-80.5, p value < 0.001) and intestinal diameter [OR 4.7, CI 1.6-13.4, p value 0.004]) were significantly different in AII patients. Subgroup analysis implied that pneumatosis intestinalis, increased contrast enhancement in the bowel wall, inferior mesenteric artery arteriosclerosis and colonic contraction were predictors of AII. CONCLUSION: Radiological changes within the intestinal wall, luminal diameter and gastrointestinal vessels are independent predictors of AII. Awareness of these radiological findings, therefore, plays a central role in patients with an indistinct clinical picture in early recognition and treatment of a life-threatening AII. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: NCT04361110 (April 24, 2020), retrospectively registered.

Comparing single-target and multitarget approaches for postoperative circulating tumour DNA detection in stage II-III colorectal cancer patients.

Circulating tumour DNA (ctDNA) detection for postoperative risk stratification in cancer patients has great clinical potential. However, low ctDNA abundances complicates detection. Multitarget (MT) detection strategies have been developed to increase sensitivity. Yet, empirical evidence supporting performance gains of MT vs. single-target (ST) strategies in a postoperative setting is limited. We compared ctDNA detection in 379 paired plasma samples from 112 stage II-III colorectal cancer patients by ST digital PCR and MT sequencing of 16 patient-specific variants. The strategies exhibited good concordance (90%, Cohen's Kappa 0.79), with highly correlated ctDNA quantifications (Pearson r = 0.985). A difference was observed in ctDNA detection preoperatively (ST 72/92, MT 88/92). However, no difference was observed immediately after surgery in recurrence (ST 11/22, MT 10/22) or nonrecurrence (both 2/34) patients. In serial samples, detection was similar within recurrence (ST 13/16, MT 14/16) and nonrecurrence (ST 3/49, MT 1/49) patients. Both approaches yielded similar lead times to standard-of-care radiology (ST 4.0 months, MT 4.1 months). Our findings do not support significant performance gains of the MT strategy over the ST strategy for postoperative ctDNA detection.

Circulating Tumor DNA in Stage III Colorectal Cancer, beyond Minimal Residual Disease Detection, toward Assessment of Adjuvant Therapy Efficacy and Clinical Behavior of Recurrences.

PURPOSE: Sensitive methods for risk stratification, monitoring therapeutic efficacy, and early relapse detection may have a major impact on treatment decisions and patient management for stage III colorectal cancer patients. Beyond assessing the predictive power of postoperative ctDNA detection, we explored the added benefits of serial analysis: assessing adjuvant chemotherapy (ACT) efficacy, early relapse detection, and ctDNA growth rates. EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN: We recruited 168 patients with stage III colorectal cancer treated with curative intent at Danish and Spanish hospitals between 2014 and 2019. To quantify ctDNA in plasma samples (n = 1,204), 16 patient-specific somatic single-nucleotide variants were profiled using multiplex-PCR, next-generation sequencing. RESULTS: Detection of ctDNA was a strong recurrence predictor postoperatively [HR = 7.0; 95% confidence interval (CI), 3.7-13.5; P < 0.001] and directly after ACT (HR = 50.76; 95% CI, 15.4-167; P < 0.001). The recurrence rate of postoperative ctDNA-positive patients treated with ACT was 80% (16/20). Only patients who cleared ctDNA permanently during ACT did not relapse. Serial ctDNA assessment after the end of treatment was similarly predictive of recurrence (HR = 50.80; 95% CI, 14.9-172; P < 0.001), and revealed two distinct rates of exponential ctDNA growth, slow (25% ctDNA-increase/month) and fast (143% ctDNA-increase/month; P < 0.001). The ctDNA growth rate was prognostic of survival (HR = 2.7; 95% CI, 1.1-6.7; P = 0.039). Serial ctDNA analysis every 3 months detected recurrence with a median lead-time of 9.8 months compared with standard-of-care computed tomography. CONCLUSIONS: Serial postoperative ctDNA analysis has a strong prognostic value and enables tumor growth rate assessment. The novel combination of ctDNA detection and growth rate assessment provides unique opportunities for guiding decision-making.See related commentary by Morris and George, p. 438.