Post-infection symptoms following two large waterborne outbreaks of Cryptosporidium hominis in Northern Sweden, 2010-2011.

BACKGROUND: In 2010-2011, two large waterborne outbreaks caused by Cryptosporidium hominis affected two cities in Sweden, Östersund and Skellefteå. We investigated potential post-infection health consequences in people who had reported symptoms compatible with cryptosporidiosis during the outbreaks using questionnaires. METHODS: We compared cases linked to these outbreaks with non-cases in terms of symptoms present up to eleven months after the initial infection. We examined if cases were more likely to report a list of symptoms at follow-up than non-cases, calculating odds ratios (OR) and 95 % confidence intervals (CI) obtained through logistic regression. RESULTS: A total of 872 (310 cases) and 743 (149 cases) individuals responded to the follow-up questionnaires in Östersund and Skellefteå respectively. Outbreak cases were more likely to report diarrhea (Östersund OR: 3.3, CI: 2.0-5.3. Skellefteå OR: 3.6, CI: 2.0-6.6), watery diarrhea (Östersund OR: 3.4, CI: 1.9-6.3. Skellefteå OR: 2.8, CI: 1.5-5.1) abdominal pain (Östersund OR: 2.1, CI: 1.4-3.3, Skellefteå OR: 2.7, CI: 1.5-4.6) and joint pain (Östersund OR: 2.0, CI: 1.2-3.3, Skellefteå OR: 2.0, CI: 1.1-3.6) at follow-up compared to non-cases. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest that gastrointestinal- and joint symptoms can persist several months after the initial infection with Cryptosporidium and should be regarded as a potential cause of unexplained symptoms in people who have suffered from the infection.

Antibiotic consumption in relation to socio-demographic factors, co-morbidity, and accessibility of primary health care.

BACKGROUND: Differences in antibiotic consumption between individuals are not only due to differences in primary infection morbidity, other non-medical factors are important. Our objective was to investigate how socio-demographic factors, co-morbidity, and access to primary care affect antibiotic prescribing. METHODS: The study population included all 2 078 481 persons in Sweden who received at least one antibiotic prescription during 2010, and an unmatched control population of 788 580 individuals. We used record linkage to obtain data on co-morbidity, various socio-demographic variables, and waiting times for doctor appointments in primary care. We used logistic regression to estimate odds ratios (ORs) for antibiotic prescription. RESULTS: The results showed that over 20% of the population were prescribed antibiotics during 2010. Children aged 0-5 years, persons ≥ 75 years of age, those living in urban areas, and women compared with men, received many prescriptions. Co-morbidity was a strong factor that determined the number of antibiotic prescriptions: those with Charlson's index ≥ 3 had an OR of 3.03 (95% CI: 3.00-3.07) to obtain antibiotics in the adjusted analysis, compared with individuals without co-morbidity (Charlson's index 0). Short waiting times for a doctor's visit in primary care were associated with a higher number of antibiotic prescriptions. Individuals born in Sweden were prescribed more antibiotics compared with those born in another country. Specifically, persons born in any of the 27 EU countries (excluding Scandinavia) had an OR of antibiotic prescription of 0.78 (95% CI: 0.77-0.78) compared with native-born individuals. CONCLUSIONS: We conclude that non-medical factors strongly influence antibiotic prescriptions.

Excessive weight gain during full breast-feeding.

BACKGROUND: Breast-feeding is considered to offer optimal nutrition for healthy infant growth and development. Observational studies have linked breast-feeding to reduced obesity. CASE OBSERVATION: We observed an infant who was born macrosomic (4.56 kg) and showed excessive weight gain markedly exceeding the 97th percentile of weight during full breast-feeding. At the age of 4 months, the weight was greater than 11 kg. Clinical evaluation did not reveal any underlying pathology. After the introduction of complementary feeding and hence reduction of the breast milk intake, the excessive weight gain was attenuated and the slope of the percentile curve paralleled upper percentiles. Since this pattern suggested full breast-feeding as the driver of excessive weight gain, we analyzed the human milk composition at the infant age of 1 year and compared the results with published data on composition at this stage of lactation. RESULTS: The milk contents of lactose, fat, fatty acids, polar lipids, carnitine species, and insulin were similar to the reference data. The adiponectin content was increased. The most remarkable alteration was a high milk protein content (mean 1.25 g/dl, reference 0.8 g/dl). CONCLUSIONS: A very high protein supply in infancy has been previously shown to increase plasma concentrations of the growth factors insulin and IGF-1, weight gain, and later obesity. We speculate that interindividual variations in human milk adiponectin and protein contents may contribute to modulation of the growth of fully breast-fed infants and in this case may have contributed to excessive weight gain during full breast-feeding. This hypothesis merits being tested in future cohort studies.

Validation of myocarditis diagnoses in the Swedish patient register for analyses of potential adverse reactions to COVID-19 vaccines.

Background: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) mRNA vaccines are associated with an increased risk of myocarditis using hospital discharge diagnoses as an outcome. The validity of these register-based diagnoses is uncertain. Methods: Patient records for subjects < 40 years of age and a diagnosis of myocarditis in the Swedish National Patient Register were manually reviewed. Brighton Collaboration diagnosis criteria for myocarditis were applied based on patient history, clinical examination, laboratory data, electrocardiograms, echocardiography, magnetic resonance imaging and myocardial biopsy. Poisson regression was used to estimate incidence rate ratios, comparing the register-based outcome variable to validated outcomes. Interrater reliability was assessed by a blinded re-evaluation. Results: Overall, 95.6% (327/342) of cases registered as myocarditis were confirmed (definite, probable or possible myocarditis according to Brighton Collaboration diagnosis criteria, positive predictive value 0.96 [95% CI 0.93-0.98]). Of the 4.4% (15/342) cases reclassified as no myocarditis or as insufficient information, two cases had been exposed to the COVID-19 vaccine no more than 28 days before the myocarditis diagnosis, two cases were exposed >28 days before admission and 11 cases were unexposed to the vaccine. The reclassification had only minor impact on incidence rate ratios for myocarditis following COVID-19 vaccination. In total, 51 cases were sampled for a blinded re-evaluation. Of the 30 randomly sampled cases initially classified as either definite or probably myocarditis, none were re-classified after re-evaluation. Of the in all 15 cases initially classified as no myocarditis or insufficient information, 7 were after re-evaluation re-classified as probable or possible myocarditis. This re-classification was mostly due to substantial variability in electrocardiogram interpretation. Conclusion: This validation of register-based diagnoses of myocarditis by manual patient record review confirmed the register diagnosis in 96% of cases and had high interrater reliability. Reclassification had only a minor impact on the incidence rate ratios for myocarditis following COVID-19 vaccination.

Comparison of years of life lost to 1,565 suicides versus 10,650 COVID-19 deaths in 2020 in Sweden: four times more years of life lost per suicide than per COVID-19 death.

Background: The burden of disease from the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic is large; however, suicide affects the population year after year. From a public health perspective, it is important to not neglect contributors to the total burden of disease. The aim of this paper is to compare years of life lost (YLL) to suicide with those lost to coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Methods: A nationwide cohort study in 2020, in Sweden. YLL was measured as the sex- and age-specific remaining life expectancy at the time of the person's death based on the death risks that pertained to the Swedish population in 2019. YLL to suicide was compared to YLL to COVID-19 and presented by sex and age groups. Suicide deaths in 2020 were estimated as the annual average of suicides in 2015-2019. Results: Annual average of suicide was 1,565, whereof 1,076 (68.8%) men and 489 (31.2%) women. In 2020, 10,650 persons died of COVID-19, whereof 5,681 (53.3%) men and 4,969 (46.7%) women. Estimated total YLL to suicide and COVID-19 in 2020 was 53,237 and 90,116, respectively. The COVID-19 YLL to suicide YLL ratio in 2020 was 1.69 (90,116/53,237). Men accounted for 67.1% of suicide YLL and of 56.4% of COVID-19 YLL. Those 44 years or younger accounted for 60.3% of suicide YLL and 3.9% of COVID-19 YLL. Those 75 years and older accounted for 2.9% of suicide YLL and 60.9% of COVID-19 YLL. On average, each suicide generates 34 YLL (53,237/1,565), and each COVID-19 death generates 8.5 YLL (90,116/10,650). Conclusions: YLL to suicide affects Sweden year after year, foremost attributable to the younger age groups, whereas YLL to COVID-19 is foremost attributable to the elderly. On average, each suicide generates four times more YLL than a COVID-19 death. Enormous efforts and resources have been put on tackling the pandemic, and without these, the burden would probably have been much larger. However, from a public health perspective, it is important to not neglect other contributors to the total burden of disease where national efforts also may have an impact.

SARS-CoV-2 Vaccination and Myocarditis in a Nordic Cohort Study of 23 Million Residents.

Importance: Reports of myocarditis after SARS-CoV-2 messenger RNA (mRNA) vaccination have emerged. Objective: To evaluate the risks of myocarditis and pericarditis following SARS-CoV-2 vaccination by vaccine product, vaccination dose number, sex, and age. Design, Setting, and Participants: Four cohort studies were conducted according to a common protocol, and the results were combined using meta-analysis. Participants were 23 122 522 residents aged 12 years or older. They were followed up from December 27, 2020, until incident myocarditis or pericarditis, censoring, or study end (October 5, 2021). Data on SARS-CoV-2 vaccinations, hospital diagnoses of myocarditis or pericarditis, and covariates for the participants were obtained from linked nationwide health registers in Denmark, Finland, Norway, and Sweden. Exposures: The 28-day risk periods after administration date of the first and second doses of a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine, including BNT162b2, mRNA-1273, and AZD1222 or combinations thereof. A homologous schedule was defined as receiving the same vaccine type for doses 1 and 2. Main Outcomes and Measures: Incident outcome events were defined as the date of first inpatient hospital admission based on primary or secondary discharge diagnosis for myocarditis or pericarditis from December 27, 2020, onward. Secondary outcome was myocarditis or pericarditis combined from either inpatient or outpatient hospital care. Poisson regression yielded adjusted incidence rate ratios (IRRs) and excess rates with 95% CIs, comparing rates of myocarditis or pericarditis in the 28-day period following vaccination with rates among unvaccinated individuals. Results: Among 23 122 522 Nordic residents (81% vaccinated by study end; 50.2% female), 1077 incident myocarditis events and 1149 incident pericarditis events were identified. Within the 28-day period, for males and females 12 years or older combined who received a homologous schedule, the second dose was associated with higher risk of myocarditis, with adjusted IRRs of 1.75 (95% CI, 1.43-2.14) for BNT162b2 and 6.57 (95% CI, 4.64-9.28) for mRNA-1273. Among males 16 to 24 years of age, adjusted IRRs were 5.31 (95% CI, 3.68-7.68) for a second dose of BNT162b2 and 13.83 (95% CI, 8.08-23.68) for a second dose of mRNA-1273, and numbers of excess events were 5.55 (95% CI, 3.70-7.39) events per 100 000 vaccinees after the second dose of BNT162b2 and 18.39 (9.05-27.72) events per 100 000 vaccinees after the second dose of mRNA-1273. Estimates for pericarditis were similar. Conclusions and Relevance: Results of this large cohort study indicated that both first and second doses of mRNA vaccines were associated with increased risk of myocarditis and pericarditis. For individuals receiving 2 doses of the same vaccine, risk of myocarditis was highest among young males (aged 16-24 years) after the second dose. These findings are compatible with between 4 and 7 excess events in 28 days per 100 000 vaccinees after BNT162b2, and between 9 and 28 excess events per 100 000 vaccinees after mRNA-1273. This risk should be balanced against the benefits of protecting against severe COVID-19 disease.

The profile of the COvid-19 VACcination register SAFEty study in Sweden (CoVacSafe-SE).

BACKGROUND: The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccines have been rapidly implemented in national vaccination programs world-wide after accelerated approval processes. The large population exposure achieved in very short time requires systematic monitoring of safety. The Swedish Medical Products Agency has launched a project platform for epidemiological surveillance to detect and characterise suspected adverse effects of COVID-19 vaccines in Sweden. METHODS: The platform includes all individuals 12 years or older in Sweden in 2021 and will be updated annually. Data, including vaccine and COVID-19 disease data, socioeconomic and demographic data, comorbidity, prescribed medicines and healthcare utilisation outcomes, are obtained from several national registers in collaboration with other Swedish Government agencies. Data from 2015 to 2019 are used as a historical comparison cohort unexposed to both the COVID-19 pandemic and to the COVID-19 vaccines. RESULTS: The primary study cohort includes 8,305,978 adults 18 years and older permanently residing in Sweden on 31 December 2020. The historical control cohort includes 8,679,641 subjects. By 31 July 2021, around 50% of those 18 years and older and two-thirds of those 50 years and older were vaccinated with at least one dose, 90% of those 70 years or older had two doses. CONCLUSIONS: The nationwide register-based study cohort created by the Swedish Medical Products Agency with regular updates of individual level linkage of COVID-19 vaccination exposure data to other health data registers will facilitate both safety signal detection and evaluation and other pharmacoepidemiological studies.

CASE: a framework for computer supported outbreak detection.

BACKGROUND: In computer supported outbreak detection, a statistical method is applied to a collection of cases to detect any excess cases for a particular disease. Whether a detected aberration is a true outbreak is decided by a human expert. We present a technical framework designed and implemented at the Swedish Institute for Infectious Disease Control for computer supported outbreak detection, where a database of case reports for a large number of infectious diseases can be processed using one or more statistical methods selected by the user. RESULTS: Based on case information, such as diagnosis and date, different statistical algorithms for detecting outbreaks can be applied, both on the disease level and the subtype level. The parameter settings for the algorithms can be configured independently for different diagnoses using the provided graphical interface. Input generators and output parsers are also provided for all supported algorithms. If an outbreak signal is detected, an email notification is sent to the persons listed as receivers for that particular disease. CONCLUSIONS: The framework is available as open source software, licensed under GNU General Public License Version 3. By making the code open source, we wish to encourage others to contribute to the future development of computer supported outbreak detection systems, and in particular to the development of the CASE framework.

Repeat infection with Chlamydia trachomatis: a prospective cohort study from an STI-clinic in Stockholm.

BACKGROUND: Infection with genital Chlamydia trachomatis (Ct) is the most common notifiable sexually transmitted infection (STI) in Sweden. A mutated Chlamydia, nvCT, has contributed to the increase. The occurrence of repeat infections is not investigated in Sweden. The current paper presents the study protocol for the first Swedish clinical investigation of repeat Chlamydial infection. The concern of the study is whether a Chlamydia infection at inclusion indicates an increased risk for Chlamydia at follow-up after 6-8 months, gender-specific risk factors for and clinical presentation of repeat infections. METHODS AND DESIGN: Sesam City is a drop-in clinic in the city centre of Stockholm. Patients 20 years and older are admitted. During 2007, the clinic had 15,000 visits, 60% made by men. In December 2007, a cohort study began, and data collection was finished in April 2009. A total of 2,813 study participants aged 20-39 years were recruited. Data collection included an anonymous self-administered paper-and-pen questionnaire on sexual behaviour, reproductive health and history of Chlamydia, and condom use. Chlamydia tests were performed by self-sampled specimens, analyzed by the ProbeTec (Becton Dickinson) method, Ct-positive specimens also analyzed with a nvCT-specific method. Data from medical records were summarized in clinical report forms. Patients positive for Chlamydia were retested 4 weeks after treatment. Contact tracing covered sexual contacts during the last 12 months. At follow-up 6-8 months after inclusion, Chlamydia tests were performed, and a new questionnaire and CRF completed. DISCUSSION: A STI-clinic-based prospective cohort study allowed us to survey 2813 adult patients. The collected data will provide gender-specific information on the occurrence of and risk for repeat Chlamydia infection, the occurrence of nvCT, and clinical data and information on sexual behaviour and reproductive health, risk-taking and condom use.

Variation and Interdependencies of Human Milk Macronutrients, Fatty Acids, Adiponectin, Insulin, and IGF-II in the European PreventCD Cohort.

Human milk composition is variable. The identification of influencing factors and interdependencies of components may help to understand the physiology of lactation. In this study, we analyzed linear trends in human milk composition over time, the variation across different European countries and the influence of maternal celiac disease. Within a multicenter European study exploring potential prevention of celiac disease in a high-risk population (PreventCD), 569 human milk samples were donated by women from five European countries between 16 and 163 days postpartum. Some 202 mothers provided two samples at different time points. Protein, carbohydrates, fat and fatty acids, insulin, adiponectin, and insulin-like growth factor II (IGF-II) were analyzed. Milk protein and n-6 long chain polyunsaturated fatty acids decreased during the first three months of lactation. Fatty acid composition was significantly influenced by the country of residence. IGF-II and adiponectin concentrations correlated with protein content (r = 0.24 and r = 0.35), and IGF-II also correlated with fat content (r = 0.36), suggesting a possible regulatory role of IGF in milk macronutrient synthesis. Regarding the impact of celiac disease, only the level in palmitic acid was influenced by this disease, suggesting that breastfeeding by celiac disease mothers should not be discouraged.

The impact of human breast milk components on the infant metabolism.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Breastfeeding is beneficial for mothers and infants. Underlying mechanisms and biochemical mediators thus need to be investigated to develop and support improved infant nutrition practices promoting the child health. We analysed the relation between maternal breast milk composition and infant metabolism. METHODS: 196 pairs of mothers and infants from a European research project (PreventCD) were studied. Maternal milk samples collected at month 1 and month 4 after birth were analysed for macronutrient classes, hormone, and fatty acid (FA) content. Phospholipids, acylcarnitines, and amino acids were measured in serum samples of 4-month old infants. Associations between milk components and infant metabolites were analysed with spearman correlation and linear mixed effect models (LME). P-values were corrected for multiple testing (PLME). RESULTS: Month 1 milk protein content was strongly associated with infant serum lyso-phosphatidylcholine (LPC) 14:0 (PLME = 0.009). Month 1 milk insulin was associated to infant acetylcarnitine (PLME = 0.01). There were no associations between milk protein content and serum amino acids and milk total fat content and serum polar lipids. Middle- and odd-chain FA% in breast milk at both ages were significantly related to serum LPC and sphingomyelins (SM) species in infant serum (all PLME<0.05), while FA% 20:5n-3 and 22:6n-3 percentages were significantly associated to serum LPC 22:6 (PLME = 1.91×10-4/7.93×10-5) in milk only at month 4. Other polyunsaturated fatty acids and hormones in milk showed only weak associations with infant serum metabolites. CONCLUSIONS: Infant serum LPC are influenced by breast milk FA composition and, intriguingly, milk protein content in early but not late lactation. LPC 14:0, previously found positively associated with obesity risk, was the serum metabolite which was the most strongly associated to milk protein content. Thus, LPC 14:0 might be a key metabolite not only reflecting milk protein intake in infants, but also relating high protein content in milk or infant formula to childhood obesity risk.

A pilot study of risk adjustment for benchmarking antibiotic use between hospitals in Sweden.

There is no established standard for comparing overall antibiotic use between hospitals taking patient characteristics into account. The objective of this study was to investigate whether there is a correlation between surrogate markers for patient morbidity, namely case mix index (CMI), mean length of hospital stay (LoS) and mean cost per admission, and antibiotic use in a sample of Swedish hospitals. All primary and secondary hospitals in three counties with high and three counties with low consumption of antibiotics were selected. Data from 16 hospitals were included. A regression analysis was used to evaluate whether there was a linear trend between defined daily doses (DDD) of antibiotics per 100 bed-days and the surrogate markers for morbidity. No correlation could be found between any of the measures of morbidity and total antibiotic consumption. However, a correlation was found between CMI and the proportion of narrow-spectrum antibiotics: the higher the CMI, the lower the proportional use of ß-lactamase-sensitive penicillins. In conclusion, it was found that CMI, mean LoS and mean cost per admission did not appears to be useful factors to adjust for when comparing antibiotic use in this subset of primary and secondary care hospitals. Based on this limited study, we suggest that DDD/100 bed-days can still be used as an appropriate metric to benchmark antibiotic use in primary and secondary hospitals until a better marker for variation of patients and activities is identified.

Pertussis immunization in infancy and adolescent asthma medication.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Childhood immunization may influence the development of asthma, possibly due to lack of infections or a shift in the T-helper cell type 1/T-helper cell type 2/regulatory T cells balance. We therefore investigated whether pertussis immunization in infancy is associated with asthma medication in adolescence. METHODS: After 14 years of no general pertussis vaccination, almost 82,000 Swedish children were immunized for pertussis in a vaccination trial between June 1, 1993, and June 30, 1994. In a follow-up analysis of almost 80,000 children, their data were compared with those of ∼100,000 nonvaccinated children, born during a 5-month period before and a 7-month period after the vaccination trial. Data for the main outcome variable (ie, dispensed prescribed asthma medication for each individual in the cohort during 2008-2010) were obtained from the national prescription database. Multivariate regression models were used to calculate the effect size of vaccination on dispensed asthma medication (odds ratios [OR], 95% confidence intervals [CI]). Approaches similar to intention-to-treat and per-protocol methods were used. RESULTS: The prevalence rates of various asthma medications for study patients at 15 years of age differed between 4.6% and 7.0%. The crude ORs for any asthma medication and antiinflammatory treatment in pertussis-vaccinated children after intention-to-treat analysis were 0.97 (95% CI: 0.93-1.00) and 0.94 (95% CI: 0.90-0.98), respectively. Corresponding adjusted ORs were 0.99 (95% CI: 0.95-1.03) and 0.97 (95% CI: 0.92-1.01). Similar ORs were found after per-protocol analysis. CONCLUSIONS: Pertussis immunization in infancy does not increase the risk of asthma medication use in adolescents. Our study presents evidence that pertussis immunization in early childhood can be considered safe with respect to long-term development of asthma.

Head lice surveillance on a deregulated OTC-sales market: a study using web query data.

The head louse, Pediculus humanus capitis, is an obligate ectoparasite that causes infestations of humans. Studies have demonstrated a correlation between sales figures for over-the-counter (OTC) treatment products and the number of humans with head lice. The deregulation of the Swedish pharmacy market on July 1, 2009, decreased the possibility to obtain complete sale figures and thereby the possibility to obtain yearly trends of head lice infestations. In the presented study we wanted to investigate whether web queries on head lice can be used as substitute for OTC sales figures. Via Google Insights for Search and Vårdguiden medical web site, the number of queries on "huvudlöss" (head lice) and "hårlöss" (lice in hair) were obtained. The analysis showed that both the Vårdguiden series and the Google series were statistically significant (p<0.001) when added separately, but if the Google series were already included in the model, the Vårdguiden series were not statistically significant (p = 0.5689). In conclusion, web queries can detect if there is an increase or decrease of head lice infested humans in Sweden over a period of years, and be as reliable a proxy as the OTC-sales figures.

A stochastic EM type algorithm for parameter estimation in models with continuous outcomes, under complex ascertainment.

Outcome-dependent sampling probabilities can be used to increase efficiency in observational studies. For continuous outcomes, appropriate consideration of sampling design in estimating parameters of interest is often computationally cumbersome. In this article, we suggest a Stochastic EM type algorithm for estimation when ascertainment probabilities are known or estimable. The computational complexity of the likelihood is avoided by filling in missing data so that an approximation of the full data likelihood can be used. The method is not restricted to any specific distribution of the data and can be used for a broad range of statistical models.