Twenty-year record of white pox disease in the Florida Keys: importance of environmental risk factors as drivers of coral health.

Declining coral populations worldwide place a special premium on identifying risks and drivers that precipitate these declines. Understanding the relationship between disease outbreaks and their drivers can help to anticipate when the risk of a disease pandemic is high. Populations of the iconic branching Caribbean elkhorn coral Acropora palmata have collapsed in recent decades, in part due to white pox disease (WPX). To assess the role that biotic and abiotic factors play in modulating coral disease, we present a predictive model for WPX in A. palmata using 20 yr of disease surveys from the Florida Keys plus environmental information collected simultaneously in situ and via satellite. We found that colony size was the most influential predictor for WPX occurrence, with larger colonies being at higher risk. Water quality parameters of dissolved oxygen saturation, total organic carbon, dissolved inorganic nitrogen, and salinity were implicated in WPX likelihood. Both low and high wind speeds were identified as important environmental drivers of WPX. While high temperature has been identified as an important cause of coral mortality in both bleaching and disease scenarios, our model indicates that the relative influence of HotSpot (positive summertime temperature anomaly) was low and actually inversely related to WPX risk. The predictive model developed here can contribute to enabling targeted strategic management actions and disease surveillance, enabling managers to treat the disease or mitigate disease drivers, thereby suppressing the disease and supporting the persistence of corals in an era of myriad threats.

Systematic Analysis of White Pox Disease in Acropora palmata of the Florida Keys and Role of Serratia marcescens.

White pox disease (WPD) affects the threatened elkhorn coral, Acropora palmata. Owing in part to the lack of a rapid and simple diagnostic test, there have been few systematic assessments of the prevalence of acroporid serratiosis (caused specifically by Serratia marcescens) versus general WPD signs. Six reefs in the Florida Keys were surveyed between 2011 and 2013 to determine the disease status of A. palmata and the prevalence of S. marcescens. WPD was noted at four of the six reefs, with WPD lesions found on 8 to 40% of the colonies surveyed. S. marcescens was detected in 26.9% (7/26) of the WPD lesions and in mucus from apparently healthy colonies both during and outside of disease events (9%; 18/201). S. marcescens was detected with greater frequency in A. palmata than in the overlying water column, regardless of disease status (P = 0.0177). S. marcescens could not be cultured from A. palmata but was isolated from healthy colonies of other coral species and was identified as pathogenic pulsed-field gel electrophoresis type PDR60. WPD lesions were frequently observed on the reef, but unlike in prior outbreaks, no whole-colony death was observed. Pathogenic S. marcescens was circulating on the reef but did not appear to be the primary pathogen in these recent WPD episodes, suggesting that other pathogens or stressors may contribute to signs of WPD. Results highlight the critical importance of diagnostics in coral disease investigations, especially given that field manifestation of disease may be similar, regardless of the etiological agent.

Multiscale model of regional population decline in little brown bats due to white-nose syndrome.

The introduced fungal pathogen Pseudogymnoascus destructans is causing decline of several species of bats in North America, with some even at risk of extinction or extirpation. The severity of the epidemic of white-nose syndrome caused by P. destructans has prompted investigation of the transmission and virulence of infection at multiple scales, but linking these scales is necessary to quantify the mechanisms of transmission and assess population-scale declines.We built a model connecting within-hibernaculum disease dynamics of little brown bats to regional-scale dispersal, reproduction, and disease spread, including multiple plausible mechanisms of transmission.We parameterized the model using the approach of plausible parameter sets, by comparing stochastic simulation results to statistical probes from empirical data on within-hibernaculum prevalence and survival, as well as among-hibernacula spread across a region.Our results are consistent with frequency-dependent transmission between bats, support an important role of environmental transmission, and show very little effect of dispersal among colonies on metapopulation survival.The results help identify the influential parameters and largest sources of uncertainty. The model also offers a generalizable method to assess hypotheses about hibernaculum-to-hibernaculum transmission and to identify gaps in knowledge about key processes, and could be expanded to include additional mechanisms or bat species.