Development of disturbance of consciousness is associated with increased severity in acute pancreatitis.

BACKGROUND: Disturbance of consciousness (DOC) may develop in acute pancreatitis (AP). In clinical practice, it is known that DOC may worsen the patient's condition, but we have no exact data on how DOC affects the outcome of AP. METHODS: From the Hungarian Pancreatic Study Groups' AP registry, 1220 prospectively collected cases were analyzed, which contained exact data on DOC, included patients with confusion, delirium, convulsion, and alcohol withdrawal, answering a post hoc defined research question. Patients were separated to Non-DOC and DOC, whereas DOC was further divided into non-alcohol related DOC (Non-ALC DOC) and ALC DOC groups. For statistical analysis, independent sample t-test, Mann-Whitney, Chi-squared, or Fisher exact test were used. RESULTS: From the 1220 patients, 47 (3.9%) developed DOC, 23 (48.9%) cases were ALC DOC vs. 24 (51.1%) Non-ALC DOC. Analysis between the DOC and Non-DOC groups showed a higher incidence of severe AP (19.2% vs. 5.3%, p < 0.001), higher mortality (14.9% vs. 1.7%, p < 0.001), and a longer length of hospitalization (LOH) (Me = 11; IQR: 8-17 days vs. Me = 9; IQR: 6-13 days, p = 0.049) respectively. Patients with ALC DOC developed more frequently moderate AP vs. Non-ALC DOC (43.5% vs. 12.5%), while the incidence of severe AP was higher in Non-ALC vs. ALC DOC group (33.3% vs. 4.4%) (p < 0.001). LOH showed a tendency to be longer in Non-ALC DOC compared to ALC DOC, respectively (Me:13; IQR:7-20 days vs. Me:9.5; IQR:8-15.5 days, p = 0.119). CONCLUSION: DOC during AP is associated with a higher rate of moderate and severe AP and increases the risk of mortality.

Antibiotic therapy in acute pancreatitis: From global overuse to evidence based recommendations.

BACKGROUND: Unwarranted administration of antibiotics in acute pancreatitis presents a global challenge. The clinical reasoning behind the misuse is poorly understood. Our aim was to investigate current clinical practices and develop recommendations that guide clinicians in prescribing antibiotic treatment in acute pancreatitis. METHODS: Four methods were used. 1) Systematic data collection was performed to summarize current evidence; 2) a retrospective questionnaire was developed to understand the current global clinical practice; 3) five years of prospectively collected data were analysed to identify the clinical parameters used by medical teams in the decision making process, and finally; 4) the UpToDate Grading of Recommendations, Assessment, Development and Evaluation (GRADE) system was applied to provide evidence based recommendations for healthcare professionals. RESULTS: The systematic literature search revealed no consensus on the start of AB therapy in patients with no bacterial culture test. Retrospective data collection on 9728 patients from 22 countries indicated a wide range (31-82%) of antibiotic use frequency in AP. Analysis of 56 variables from 962 patients showed that clinicians initiate antibiotic therapy based on increased WBC and/or elevated CRP, lipase and amylase levels. The above mentioned four laboratory parameters showed no association with infection in the early phase of acute pancreatitis. Instead, procalcitonin levels proved to be a better biomarker of early infection. Patients with suspected infection because of fever had no benefit from antibiotic therapy. CONCLUSIONS: The authors formulated four consensus statements to urge reduction of unjustified antibiotic treatment in acute pancreatitis and to use procalcitonin rather than WBC or CRP as biomarkers to guide decision-making.

Intravenous ferric carboxymaltose versus oral ferrous sulfate replacement in elderly patients after acute non-variceal gastrointestinal bleeding (FIERCE): protocol of a multicentre, open-label, randomised controlled trial.

INTRODUCTION: Acute gastrointestinal bleeding (GIB) is a life-threatening emergency with a critical economic burden. As a result of bleeding, anaemia often requires intravenous or oral iron supplementation. Elderly patients are even more prone to untoward outcomes after hospital discharge if iron supplementation is inefficient. There is a gap in current guidelines on which supplementation route clinicians should choose. We aim to investigate the effect of one dose of intravenous iron therapy versus 3-month oral iron administration on anaemia in an elderly population. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: The FIERCE study is an open-label, randomised controlled, two-armed trial. At least 48 hours after the acute non-variceal GIB treatment, patients will be recruited in participating centres. A random sequence generator will allocate the participants to group A (intravenous ferric carboxymaltose, 1000 mg) or group B (oral ferrous sulfate (FS), ca. 200 mg every day) with an allocation ratio of 1:1 on the day of the planned discharge from the hospital. Randomisation will be stratified for participating centres and the need for transfusion within the same hospitalisation before recruitment to the trial. Quality of life assessment, functional measurement and laboratory tests will be performed at baseline, 1 and 3 months±7 days after enrolment to the trial. The primary endpoint is a composite endpoint, including all-cause mortality, anaemia-associated unplanned emergency visit and anaemia-associated unplanned hospital admission within 3 months of enrolment in the trial. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: The study has been approved by the relevant organisation, the Scientific and Research Ethics Committee of the Hungarian Medical Research Council (46395-5/2021/EÜIG). We will disseminate our results to the medical community and will publish our results in peer-reviewed journals. TRIAL REGISTRATION: The trial has been registered at ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT05060731).

EASY-APP: An artificial intelligence model and application for early and easy prediction of severity in acute pancreatitis.

BACKGROUND: Acute pancreatitis (AP) is a potentially severe or even fatal inflammation of the pancreas. Early identification of patients at high risk for developing a severe course of the disease is crucial for preventing organ failure and death. Most of the former predictive scores require many parameters or at least 24 h to predict the severity; therefore, the early therapeutic window is often missed. METHODS: The early achievable severity index (EASY) is a multicentre, multinational, prospective and observational study (ISRCTN10525246). The predictions were made using machine learning models. We used the scikit-learn, xgboost and catboost Python packages for modelling. We evaluated our models using fourfold cross-validation, and the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, the area under the ROC curve (AUC), and accuracy metrics were calculated on the union of the test sets of the cross-validation. The most critical factors and their contribution to the prediction were identified using a modern tool of explainable artificial intelligence called SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP). RESULTS: The prediction model was based on an international cohort of 1184 patients and a validation cohort of 3543 patients. The best performing model was an XGBoost classifier with an average AUC score of 0.81 ± 0.033 and an accuracy of 89.1%, and the model improved with experience. The six most influential features were the respiratory rate, body temperature, abdominal muscular reflex, gender, age and glucose level. Using the XGBoost machine learning algorithm for prediction, the SHAP values for the explanation and the bootstrapping method to estimate confidence, we developed a free and easy-to-use web application in the Streamlit Python-based framework (http://easy-app.org/). CONCLUSIONS: The EASY prediction score is a practical tool for identifying patients at high risk for severe AP within hours of hospital admission. The web application is available for clinicians and contributes to the improvement of the model.

Initial Renal Function (eGFR) Is a Prognostic Marker of Severe Acute Pancreatitis: A Cohort-Analysis of 1,224 Prospectively Collected Cases.

Background: Acute pancreatitis (AP) is a life-threatening disease. We aimed to explore the prognostic relevance of renal function based on estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR). Methods: A prospective registry of AP patients was established by the Hungarian Pancreatic Study Group. Data of 1,224 consecutive patients were collected between 2012 and 2017. Patients were divided into 3 groups according to their eGFR measured within 24 h of hospitalization: normal renal function: >90 mL/min, mild to moderate renal functional impairment: 30-90 mL/min and severe renal dysfunction: <30 mL/min. Associations of eGFR with outcome (survival, length of hospitalization, AP severity, blood glucose), inflammatory markers (erythrocyte sedimentation rate, white blood cell count), anemia and organ failure (heart, kidney, liver) were analyzed. Results: Death, longer hospitalization and severe AP, but not the cause of AP, were significantly associated with lower eGFR. The inflammatory markers (CRP, WBC count) but not anemia (Hb, Htk) were closely associated with severe renal dysfunction. Renal function was associated with heart and renal failure but not with other complications of AP such as respiratory failure, local pancreatic complications, diabetes or peptic ulcer. eGFR was not associated with liver damage (ALAT, γ-GT) or liver function (serum bilirubin) although biliary complications, alcohol and metabolic syndrome were the most common etiologies of AP. Conclusions: Our study suggests a useful prognostic value of initial eGFR in AP patients. Even mild eGFR reduction predicted mortality, severity of AP and the length of hospitalization. Thus, precise evaluation of renal function should be considered for assessing AP severity and outcome.

Hypoalbuminemia affects one third of acute pancreatitis patients and is independently associated with severity and mortality.

The incidence and medical costs of acute pancreatitis (AP) are on the rise, and severe cases still have a 30% mortality rate. We aimed to evaluate hypoalbuminemia as a risk factor and the prognostic value of human serum albumin in AP. Data from 2461 patients were extracted from the international, prospective, multicentre AP registry operated by the Hungarian Pancreatic Study Group. Data from patients with albumin measurement in the first 48 h (n = 1149) and anytime during hospitalization (n = 1272) were analysed. Multivariate binary logistic regression and Receiver Operator Characteristic curve analysis were used. The prevalence of hypoalbuminemia (< 35 g/L) was 19% on admission and 35.7% during hospitalization. Hypoalbuminemia dose-dependently increased the risk of severity, mortality, local complications and organ failure and is associated with longer hospital stay. The predictive value of hypoalbuminemia on admission was poor for severity and mortality. Severe hypoalbuminemia (< 25 g/L) represented an independent risk factor for severity (OR 48.761; CI 25.276-98.908) and mortality (OR 16.83; CI 8.32-35.13). Albumin loss during AP was strongly associated with severity (p < 0.001) and mortality (p = 0.002). Hypoalbuminemia represents an independent risk factor for severity and mortality in AP, and it shows a dose-dependent relationship with local complications, organ failure and length of stay.

Body-mass index correlates with severity and mortality in acute pancreatitis: A meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Obesity rates have increased sharply in recent decades. As there is a growing number of cases in which acute pancreatitis (AP) is accompanied by obesity, we found it clinically relevant to investigate how body-mass index (BMI) affects the outcome of the disease. AIM: To quantify the association between subgroups of BMI and the severity and mortality of AP. METHODS: A meta-analysis was performed using the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis (PRISMA) Protocols. Three databases (PubMed, EMBASE and the Cochrane Library) were searched for articles containing data on BMI, disease severity and mortality rate for AP. English-language studies from inception to 19 June 2017 were checked against our predetermined eligibility criteria. The included articles reported all AP cases with no restriction on the etiology of the disease. Only studies that classified AP cases according to the Atlanta Criteria were involved in the severity analyses. Odds ratios (OR) and mean differences (MD) were pooled using the random effects model with the DerSimonian-Laird estimation and displayed on forest plots. The meta-analysis was registered in PROSPERO under number CRD42017077890. RESULTS: A total of 19 articles were included in our meta-analysis containing data on 9997 patients. As regards severity, a subgroup analysis showed a direct association between AP severity and BMI. BMI < 18.5 had no significant effect on severity; however, BMI > 25 had an almost three-fold increased risk for severe AP in comparison to normal BMI (OR = 2.87, 95%CI: 1.90-4.35, P < 0 .001). Importantly, the mean BMI of patients with severe AP is higher than that of the non-severe group (MD = 1.79, 95%CI: 0.89-2.70, P < 0.001). As regards mortality, death rates among AP patients are the highest in the underweight and obese subgroups. A BMI < 18.5 carries an almost two-fold increase in risk of mortality compared to normal BMI (OR = 1.82, 95%CI: 1.32-2.50, P < 0.001). However, the chance of mortality is almost equal in the normal BMI and BMI 25-30 subgroups. A BMI > 30 results in a three times higher risk of mortality in comparison to a BMI < 30 (OR = 2.89, 95%CI: 1.10-7.36, P = 0.026). CONCLUSION: Our findings confirm that a BMI above 25 increases the risk of severe AP, while a BMI > 30 raises the risk of mortality. A BMI < 18.5 carries an almost two times higher risk of mortality in AP.

A Call for Research on the Prognostic Role of Follow-Up Histology in Celiac Disease: A Systematic Review.

Background: Convincing evidence is lacking on the benefit of follow-up biopsy in celiac disease. Regardless, achieving mucosal recovery (MR) has remained a desirable goal of therapy. We aimed to conduct a systematic review to determine whether MR is a protective factor and persisting villous atrophy (PVA) has negative consequences on long-term outcomes of celiac disease. Methods: Seven databases were searched for articles discussing celiac patients subjected to a gluten-free diet who had a follow-up biopsy, and clinical and laboratory characteristics were reported by follow-up histology (MR vs. PVA). Outcomes included clinical symptoms, mortality, malignant tumors, nutritional parameters, and metabolic bone disease. Comparative and descriptive studies were included. Since data proved to be ineligible for meta-analysis, the evidence was synthesized in a systematic review. Results: Altogether, 31 studies were eligible for systematic review. Persisting symptoms were more frequently associated with PVA than with MR, although a lot of symptom-free patients had PVA and a lot of symptomatic patients achieved MR. PVA might be a risk factor of lymphomas, but mortality and the overall rate of malignant tumors seemed independent of follow-up histology. Patients with PVA tended to develop metabolic bone disease more often, although fracture risk remained similar in the groups except in hip fractures of which PVA was a risk factor. Reports on nutritional markers are only anecdotal. Conclusions: The limited evidence calls for high-quality prospective cohort studies to be arranged to clarify the exact role of follow-up histology in celiac disease.

Intralesional steroid is beneficial in benign refractory esophageal strictures: A meta-analysis.

AIM: To analyze the effect of intralesional steroid injections in addition to endoscopic dilation of benign refractory esophageal strictures. METHODS: A comprehensive search was performed in three databases from inception to 10 April 2017 to identify trials, comparing the efficacy of endoscopic dilation to dilation combined with intralesional steroid injections. Following the data extraction, meta-analytical calculations were performed on measures of outcome by the random-effects method of DerSimonian and Laird. Heterogeneity of the studies was tested by Cochrane's Q and I2 statistics. Risk of quality and bias was assessed by the Newcastle Ottawa Scale and JADAD assessment tools. RESULTS: Eleven articles were identified suitable for analyses, involving 343 patients, 235 cases and 229 controls in total. Four studies used crossover design with 121 subjects enrolled. The periodic dilation index (PDI) was comparable in 4 studies, where the pooled result showed a significant improvement of PDI in the steroid group (MD: -1.12 dilation/month, 95%CI: -1.99 to -0.25 P = 0.012; I2 = 74.4%). The total number of repeat dilations (TNRD) was comparable in 5 studies and showed a non-significant decrease (MD: -1.17, 95%CI: -0.24-0.05, P = 0.057; I2 = 0), while the dysphagia score (DS) was comparable in 5 studies and did not improve (SMD: 0.35, 95%CI: -0.38, 1.08, P = 0.351; I2 = 83.98%) after intralesional steroid injection. CONCLUSION: Intralesional steroid injection increases the time between endoscopic dilations of benign refractory esophageal strictures. However, its potential role needs further research.

Centralized care for acute pancreatitis significantly improves outcomes.

AIMS: In this observational study, we investigated whether specialized care improves outcomes for acute pancreatitis (AP). METHODS: Consecutive patients admitted to two university hospitals with AP were enrolled in this study between 1 January 2016 and 31 December 2016 (Center A: specialized center; Center B: general hospital). Data on demographic characteristics and AP etiology, severity, mortality and quality of care (enteral nutrition and antibiotic use) were extracted from the Hungarian Acute Pancreatitis Registry. An independent sample t-test, Mann-Whitney test, chi-squared test or Fisher's test were used for statistical analyses. Costs of care were calculated and compared in the two models of care. RESULTS: There were 355 patients enrolled, 195 patients in the specialized center (Center A) and 160 patients in the general hospital (Center B). There was no difference in mean age (57.02 +/-17.16 vs. 57.31 +/-16.50 P=0.872) and sex ratio (56% males vs. 57% males, P=0.837) between centres, allowing a comparison without selection bias. Center A had lower mortality (n=2, 1.03% vs. n=16, 6.25%, p=0.007), more patients received enteral feeding (n=179, 91.8%, vs. n=36, 22.5%, p<0.001) and fewer patients were treated with antibiotics (n=85, 43.6% vs. n=123, 76.9%, p=0.001). In Center A the median length of hospitalization was shorter (Me 6, IQR 5-9 vs. Me 8, IQR 6-11, p=0.02) and the costs of care were by 25% lower. CONCLUSION: Our data suggests that treatment of AP in specialized centers reduces mortality, length of hospitalization and thus might reduce the costs.

Chronic kidney disease severely deteriorates the outcome of gastrointestinal bleeding: A meta-analysis.

AIM: To understand the influence of chronic kidney disease (CKD) on mortality, need for transfusion and rebleeding in gastrointestinal (GI) bleeding patients. METHODS: A systematic search was conducted in three databases for studies on GI bleeding patients with CKD or end-stage renal disease (ESRD) with data on outcomes of mortality, transfusion requirement, rebleeding rate and length of hospitalization (LOH). Calculations were performed with Comprehensive Meta-Analysis software using the random effects model. Heterogeneity was tested by using Cochrane's Q and I2 statistics. Mean difference (MD) and OR (odds ratio) were calculated. RESULTS: 1063 articles (EMBASE: 589; PubMed: 459; Cochrane: 15) were found in total. 5 retrospective articles and 1 prospective study were available for analysis. These 6 articles contained data on 406035 patients, of whom 51315 had impaired renal function. The analysis showed a higher mortality in the CKD group (OR = 1.786, 95%CI: 1.689-1.888, P < 0.001) and the ESRD group (OR = 2.530, 95%CI: 1.386-4.616, P = 0.002), and a rebleeding rate (OR = 2.510, 95%CI: 1.521-4.144, P < 0.001) in patients with impaired renal function. CKD patients required more unit red blood cell transfusion (MD = 1.863, 95%CI: 0.812-2.915, P < 0.001) and spent more time in hospital (MD = 13.245, 95%CI: 6.886-19.623, P < 0.001) than the controls. CONCLUSION: ESRD increases mortality, need for transfusion, rebleeding rate and LOH among GI bleeding patients. Prospective patient registries and observational clinical trials are crucially needed.

High versus low energy administration in the early phase of acute pancreatitis (GOULASH trial): protocol of a multicentre randomised double-blind clinical trial.

INTRODUCTION: Acute pancreatitis (AP) is an inflammatory disease with no specific treatment. Mitochondrial injury followed by ATP depletion in both acinar and ductal cells is a recently discovered early event in its pathogenesis. Importantly, preclinical research has shown that intracellular ATP delivery restores the physiological function of the cells and protects from cell injury, suggesting that restoration of energy levels in the pancreas is therapeutically beneficial. Despite several high quality experimental observations in this area, no randomised trials have been conducted to date to address the requirements for energy intake in the early phase of AP. METHODS/DESIGN: This is a randomised controlled two-arm double-blind multicentre trial. Patients with AP will be randomly assigned to groups A (30 kcal/kg/day energy administration starting within 24 hours of hospital admission) or B (low energy administration during the first 72 hours of hospital admission). Energy will be delivered by nasoenteric tube feeding with additional intravenous glucose supplementation or total parenteral nutrition if necessary. A combination of multiorgan failure for more than 48 hours and mortality is defined as the primary endpoint, whereas several secondary endpoints such as length of hospitalisation or pain will be determined to elucidate more detailed differences between the groups. The general feasibility, safety and quality checks required for high quality evidence will be adhered to. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: The study has been approved by the relevant organisation, the Scientific and Research Ethics Committee of the Hungarian Medical Research Council (55961-2/2016/EKU). This study will provide evidence as to whether early high energy nutritional support is beneficial in the clinical management of AP. The results of this trial will be published in an open access way and disseminated among medical doctors. TRIAL REGISTRATION: The trial has been registered at the ISRCTN (ISRTCN 63827758).

Free and total cortisol levels are useful prognostic markers in critically ill patients: a prospective observational study.

OBJECTIVE: The role of cortisol in the prediction of mortality risk in critical illness is controversial in the literature. The aim of this study was to evaluate the prognostic value of cortisol concentrations in a mixed population of critically ill patients in medical emergencies. DESIGN: In this prospective, observational study, measurement of total (TC) and free cortisol (FC) levels was made in the serum samples of 69 critically ill patients (39 males and 30 females, median age of 74 years) at admission (0 h) and 6, 24, 48, and 96 h after admission. METHODS: Cortisol levels were determined using HPLC coupled high-resolution ESI-TOF mass spectrometry. The severity of disease was calculated by prognostic scores. Statistical analyses were performed using the SPSS 22.0 software. RESULTS: The range of TC varied between 49.9 and 8797.8 nmol/l, FC between 0.4 and 759.9 nmol/l. The levels of FC at 0, 6, 24, and 48 h and TC at 0, 6 h were significantly elevated in non-survivors and correlated with the predicted mortality. The prognostic value of these cortisol levels was comparable with the routinely used mortality scores. In predictive models, FC at 6, 24, and 48 h proved to be an independent determinant of mortality. CONCLUSIONS: The predictive values of FC in the first 2 days after admission and TC within 6 h are comparable with the complex, routinely used mortality scores in evaluating the prognosis of critically ill patients. The cortisol response probably reflects the severity of disease.