Established BMI-associated genetic variants and their prospective associations with BMI and other cardiometabolic traits: the GLACIER Study.

BACKGROUND: Recent cross-sectional genome-wide scans have reported associations of 97 independent loci with body mass index (BMI). In 3541 middle-aged adult participants from the GLACIER Study, we tested whether these loci are associated with 10-year changes in BMI and other cardiometabolic traits (fasting and 2-h glucose, triglycerides, total cholesterol, and systolic and diastolic blood pressures). METHODS: A BMI-specific genetic risk score (GRS) was calculated by summing the BMI-associated effect alleles at each locus. Trait-specific cardiometabolic GRSs comprised only the loci that show nominal association (P⩽0.10) with the respective trait in the original cross-sectional study. In longitudinal genetic association analyses, the second visit trait measure (assessed ~10 years after baseline) was used as the dependent variable and the models were adjusted for the baseline measure of the outcome trait, age, age(2), fasting time (for glucose and lipid traits), sex, follow-up time and population substructure. RESULTS: The BMI-specific GRS was associated with increased BMI at follow-up (ß=0.014 kg m(-2) per allele per 10-year follow-up, s.e.=0.006, P=0.019) as were three loci (PARK2 rs13191362, P=0.005; C6orf106 rs205262, P=0.043; and C9orf93 rs4740619, P=0.01). Although not withstanding Bonferroni correction, a handful of single-nucleotide polymorphisms was nominally associated with changes in blood pressure, glucose and lipid levels. CONCLUSIONS: Collectively, established BMI-associated loci convey modest but statistically significant time-dependent associations with long-term changes in BMI, suggesting a role for effect modification by factors that change with time in this population.

Prediagnostic transcriptomic markers of Chronic lymphocytic leukemia reveal perturbations 10 years before diagnosis.

BACKGROUND: B-cell lymphomas are a diverse group of hematological neoplasms with differential etiology and clinical trajectories. Increased insights in the etiology and the discovery of prediagnostic markers have the potential to improve the clinical course of these neoplasms. METHODS: We investigated in a prospective study global gene expression in peripheral blood mononuclear cells of 263 incident B-cell lymphoma cases, diagnosed between 1 and 17 years after blood sample collection, and 439 controls, nested within two European cohorts. RESULTS: Our analyses identified only transcriptomic markers for specific lymphoma subtypes; few markers of multiple myeloma (N = 3), and 745 differentially expressed genes in relation to future risk of chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL). The strongest of these associations were consistently found in both cohorts and were related to (B-) cell signaling networks and immune system regulation pathways. CLL markers exhibited very high predictive abilities of disease onset even in cases diagnosed more than 10 years after blood collection. CONCLUSIONS: This is the first investigation on blood cell global gene expression and future risk of B-cell lymphomas. We mainly identified genes in relation to future risk of CLL that are involved in biological pathways, which appear to be mechanistically involved in CLL pathogenesis. Many but not all of the top hits we identified have been reported previously in studies based on tumor tissues, therefore suggesting that a mixture of preclinical and early disease markers can be detected several years before CLL clinical diagnosis.

Exome sequencing-driven discovery of coding polymorphisms associated with common metabolic phenotypes.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: Human complex metabolic traits are in part regulated by genetic determinants. Here we applied exome sequencing to identify novel associations of coding polymorphisms at minor allele frequencies (MAFs) >1% with common metabolic phenotypes. METHODS: The study comprised three stages. We performed medium-depth (8×) whole exome sequencing in 1,000 cases with type 2 diabetes, BMI >27.5 kg/m(2) and hypertension and in 1,000 controls (stage 1). We selected 16,192 polymorphisms nominally associated (p < 0.05) with case-control status, from four selected annotation categories or from loci reported to associate with metabolic traits. These variants were genotyped in 15,989 Danes to search for association with 12 metabolic phenotypes (stage 2). In stage 3, polymorphisms showing potential associations were genotyped in a further 63,896 Europeans. RESULTS: Exome sequencing identified 70,182 polymorphisms with MAF >1%. In stage 2 we identified 51 potential associations with one or more of eight metabolic phenotypes covered by 45 unique polymorphisms. In meta-analyses of stage 2 and stage 3 results, we demonstrated robust associations for coding polymorphisms in CD300LG (fasting HDL-cholesterol: MAF 3.5%, p = 8.5 × 10(-14)), COBLL1 (type 2 diabetes: MAF 12.5%, OR 0.88, p = 1.2 × 10(-11)) and MACF1 (type 2 diabetes: MAF 23.4%, OR 1.10, p = 8.2 × 10(-10)). CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: We applied exome sequencing as a basis for finding genetic determinants of metabolic traits and show the existence of low-frequency and common coding polymorphisms with impact on common metabolic traits. Based on our study, coding polymorphisms with MAF above 1% do not seem to have particularly high effect sizes on the measured metabolic traits.

Adherence to the mediterranean diet and risk of breast cancer in the European prospective investigation into cancer and nutrition cohort study.

Epidemiological evidence suggests that the Mediterranean diet (MD) could reduce the risk of breast cancer (BC). As evidence from the prospective studies remains scarce and conflicting, we investigated the association between adherence to the MD and risk of BC among 335,062 women recruited from 1992 to 2000, in ten European countries, and followed for 11 years on average. Adherence to the MD was estimated through an adapted relative Mediterranean diet (arMED) score excluding alcohol. Cox proportional hazards regression models were used while adjusting for BC risk factors. A total of 9,009 postmenopausal and 1,216 premenopausal first primary incident invasive BC were identified (5,862 estrogen or progesterone receptor positive [ER+/PR+] and 1,018 estrogen and progesterone receptor negative [ER-/PR-]). The arMED was inversely associated with the risk of BC overall and in postmenopausal women (high vs. low arMED score; hazard ratio [HR] = 0.94 [95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.88, 1.00] ptrend = 0.048, and HR = 0.93 [95% CI: 0.87, 0.99] ptrend = 0.037, respectively). The association was more pronounced in ER-/PR- tumors (HR = 0.80 [95% CI: 0.65, 0.99] ptrend = 0.043). The arMED score was not associated with BC in premenopausal women. Our findings show that adherence to a MD excluding alcohol was related to a modest reduced risk of BC in postmenopausal women, and this association was stronger in receptor-negative tumors. The results support the potential scope for BC prevention through dietary modification.

Dietary intake of acrylamide and pancreatic cancer risk in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) cohort.

BACKGROUND: In 1994, acrylamide (AA) was classified as a probable human carcinogen by the International Agency for Research on Cancer. In 2002, AA was discovered at relatively high concentrations in some starchy, plant-based foods cooked at high temperatures. PATIENTS AND METHODS: A prospective analysis was conducted to evaluate the association between the dietary intake of AA and ductal adenocarcinoma of the exocrine pancreatic cancer (PC) risk in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) cohort using Cox regression modeling. EPIC includes >500,000 men and women aged 35-75 at enrollment from 10 European countries. AA intake was estimated for each participant by combining questionnaire-based food consumption data with a harmonized AA database derived from the EU monitoring database of AA levels in foods, and evaluated in quintiles and continuously. RESULTS: After a mean follow-up of 11 years, 865 first incident adenocarcinomas of the exocrine pancreas were observed and included in the present analysis. At baseline, the mean dietary AA intake in EPIC was 26.22 µg/day. No overall association was found between continuous or quintiles of dietary AA intake and PC risk in EPIC (HR:0.95, 95%CI:0.89-1.01 per 10 µg/day). There was no effect measure modification by smoking status, sex, diabetes, alcohol intake or geographic region. However, there was an inverse association (HR: 0.73, 95% CI: 0.61-0.88 per 10 µg/day) between AA intake and PC risk in obese persons as defined using the body mass index (BMI, ≥ 30 kg/m(2)), but not when body fatness was defined using waist and hip circumference or their ratio. CONCLUSIONS: Dietary intake of AA was not associated with an increased risk of PC in the EPIC cohort.

Active commuting reduces the risk of wrist fractures in middle-aged women-the UFO study.

SUMMARY: Middle-aged women with active commuting had significantly lower risk for wrist fracture than women commuting by car/bus. INTRODUCTION: Our purpose was to investigate whether a physically active lifestyle in middle-aged women was associated with a reduced risk of later sustaining a low-trauma wrist fracture. METHODS: The Umeå Fracture and Osteoporosis (UFO) study is a population-based nested case-control study investigating associations between lifestyle and fragility fractures. From a cohort of ~35,000 subjects, we identified 376 female wrist fracture cases who had reported data regarding their commuting habits, occupational, and leisure physical activity, before they sustained their fracture. Each fracture case was compared with at least one control drawn from the same cohort and matched for age and week of reporting data, yielding a total of 778 subjects. Mean age at baseline was 54.3 ± 5.8 years, and mean age at fracture was 60.3 ± 5.8 years. RESULTS: Conditional logistic regression analysis with adjustments for height, body mass index, smoking, and menopausal status showed that subjects with active commuting (especially walking) were at significantly lower risk of sustaining a wrist fracture (OR 0.48; 95 % CI 0.27-0.88) compared with those who commuted by car or bus. Leisure time activities such as dancing and snow shoveling were also associated with a lower fracture risk, whereas occupational activity, training, and leisure walking or cycling were unrelated to fracture risk. CONCLUSION: This study suggests that active commuting is associated with a lower wrist fracture risk, in middle-aged women.

Variety in vegetable and fruit consumption and the risk of gastric and esophageal cancer in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition.

Diets high in vegetables and fruits have been suggested to be inversely associated with risk of gastric cancer. However, the evidence of the effect of variety of consumption is limited. We therefore investigated whether consumption of a variety of vegetables and fruit is associated with gastric and esophageal cancer in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition study. Data on food consumption and follow-up on cancer incidence were available for 452,269 participants from 10 European countries. After a mean follow-up of 8.4 years, 475 cases of gastric and esophageal adenocarcinomas (180 noncardia, 185 cardia, gastric esophageal junction and esophagus, 110 not specified) and 98 esophageal squamous cell carcinomas were observed. Diet Diversity Scores were used to quantify the variety in vegetable and fruit consumption. We used multivariable Cox proportional hazard models to calculate risk ratios. Independent from quantity of consumption, variety in the consumption of vegetables and fruit combined and of fruit consumption alone were statistically significantly inversely associated with the risk of esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (continuous hazard ratio per 2 products increment 0.88; 95% CI 0.79-0.97 and 0.76; 95% CI 0.62-0.94, respectively) with the latter particularly seen in ever smokers. Variety in vegetable and/or fruit consumption was not associated with risk of gastric and esophageal adenocarcinomas. Independent from quantity of consumption, more variety in vegetable and fruit consumption combined and in fruit consumption alone may decrease the risk of esophageal squamous cell carcinoma. However, residual confounding by lifestyle factors cannot be excluded.

Helicobacter pylori infection assessed by ELISA and by immunoblot and noncardia gastric cancer risk in a prospective study: the Eurgast-EPIC project.

BACKGROUND: In epidemiological studies, Helicobacter pylori infection is usually detected by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA). However, infection can spontaneously clear from the mucosa during the progression of atrophy and could lead to substantial under-detection of infection and underestimation of its effect on gastric cancer (GC) risk. Antibodies detected by western blot are known to persist longer after the loss of the infection. METHODS: In a nested case-control study from the Eurogast-EPIC cohort, including 88 noncardia GC cases and 338 controls, we assessed the association between noncardia GC and H. pylori infection comparing antibodies detected by western blot (HELICOBLOT2.1) to those detected by ELISA (Pyloriset EIA-GIII(®)). RESULTS: By immunoblot, 82 cases (93.2%) were H. pylori positive, 10 of these cases (11.4%) were negative by ELISA and only 6 cases (6.8%) were negative by both ELISA and immunoblot. Multivariable odds ratio (OR) for noncardia GC comparing immunoglobulin G positive versus negative by ELISA was 6.8 [95% confidence interval (CI) 3.0-15.1], and by immunoblot, the OR was 21.4 (95% CI 7.1-64.4). CONCLUSIONS: Using a western blot assay, nearly all noncardia GC were classified as H. pylori positive and the OR was more than threefold higher than the OR assessed by ELISA, supporting the hypothesis that H. pylori infection is a necessary condition for noncardia GC.

Metabolic risk factors and skin cancer in the Metabolic Syndrome and Cancer Project (Me-Can).

BACKGROUND: Little is known about the associations of metabolic aberrations with malignant melanoma (MM) and nonmelanoma skin cancer (NMSC). OBJECTIVES: To assess the associations between metabolic factors (both individually and combined) and the risk of skin cancer in the large prospective Metabolic Syndrome and Cancer Project (Me-Can). METHODS: During a mean follow-up of 12 years of the Me-Can cohort, 1728 (41% women) incident MM, 230 (23% women) fatal MM and 1145 (33% women) NMSC were identified. Most NMSC cases (76%) were squamous cell carcinoma (SCC) (873, 33% women). Hazard ratios (HRs) were estimated by Cox proportional hazards regression for quintiles and standardized z-scores (with a mean of 0 and SD of 1) of body mass index (BMI), blood pressure, glucose, cholesterol, triglycerides and for a combined metabolic syndrome score. Risk estimates were corrected for random error in the measurements. RESULTS: Blood pressure per unit increase of z-score was associated with an increased risk of incident MM cases in men and women [HR 1·17, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1·04-1·31 and HR 1·18, 95% CI 1·03-1·36, respectively] and fatal MM cases among women (HR 2·39, 95% CI 1·58-3·64). In men, all quintiles for BMI above the reference were associated with a higher risk of incident MM. In women, SCC NMSC risk increased across quintiles for glucose levels (P-trend 0·02) and there was a trend with triglyceride concentration (P-trend 0·09). CONCLUSION: These findings suggest that mechanisms linked to blood pressure may be involved in the pathogenesis of MM. SCC NMSC in women could be related to glucose and lipid metabolism.

Design and cohort description of the InterAct Project: an examination of the interaction of genetic and lifestyle factors on the incidence of type 2 diabetes in the EPIC Study.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: Studying gene-lifestyle interaction may help to identify lifestyle factors that modify genetic susceptibility and uncover genetic loci exerting important subgroup effects. Adequately powered studies with prospective, unbiased, standardised assessment of key behavioural factors for gene-lifestyle studies are lacking. This case-cohort study aims to investigate how genetic and potentially modifiable lifestyle and behavioural factors, particularly diet and physical activity, interact in their influence on the risk of developing type 2 diabetes. METHODS: Incident cases of type 2 diabetes occurring in European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) cohorts between 1991 and 2007 from eight of the ten EPIC countries were ascertained and verified. Prentice-weighted Cox regression and random-effects meta-analyses were used to investigate differences in diabetes incidence by age and sex. RESULTS: A total of 12,403 verified incident cases of type 2 diabetes occurred during 3.99 million person-years of follow-up of 340,234 EPIC participants eligible for InterAct. We defined a centre-stratified subcohort of 16,154 individuals for comparative analyses. Individuals with incident diabetes who were randomly selected into the subcohort (n = 778) were included as cases in the analyses. All prevalent diabetes cases were excluded from the study. InterAct cases were followed-up for an average of 6.9 years; 49.7% were men. Mean baseline age and age at diagnosis were 55.6 and 62.5 years, mean BMI and waist circumference values were 29.4 kg/m(2) and 102.7 cm in men, and 30.1 kg/m(2) and 92.8 cm in women, respectively. Risk of type 2 diabetes increased linearly with age, with an overall HR of 1.56 (95% CI 1.48-1.64) for a 10 year age difference, adjusted for sex. A male excess in the risk of incident diabetes was consistently observed across all countries, with a pooled HR of 1.51 (95% CI 1.39-1.64), adjusted for age. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: InterAct is a large, well-powered, prospective study that will inform our understanding of the interplay between genes and lifestyle factors on the risk of type 2 diabetes development.

Postmenopausal circulating levels of 2- and 16α-hydroxyestrone and risk of endometrial cancer.

BACKGROUND: It has been suggested that the relative importance of oestrogen-metabolising pathways may affect the risk of oestrogen-dependent tumours including endometrial cancer. One hypothesis is that the 2-hydroxy pathway is protective, whereas the 16α-hydroxy pathway is harmful. METHODS: We conducted a case-control study nested within three prospective cohorts to assess whether the circulating 2-hydroxyestrone : 16α-hydroxyestrone (2-OHE1 : 16α-OHE1) ratio is inversely associated with endometrial cancer risk in postmenopausal women. A total of 179 cases and 336 controls, matching cases on cohort, age and date of blood donation, were included. Levels of 2-OHE1 and 16α-OHE1 were measured using a monoclonal antibody-based enzyme assay. RESULTS: Endometrial cancer risk increased with increasing levels of both metabolites, with odds ratios in the top tertiles of 2.4 (95% CI=1.3, 4.6; P(trend)=0.007) for 2-OHE1 and 1.9 (95% CI=1.1, 3.5; P(trend)=0.03) for 16α-OHE1 in analyses adjusting for endometrial cancer risk factors. These associations were attenuated and no longer statistically significant after further adjustment for oestrone or oestradiol levels. No significant association was observed for the 2-OHE1 : 16α-OHE1 ratio. CONCLUSION: Our results do not support the hypothesis that greater metabolism of oestrogen via the 2-OH pathway, relative to the 16α-OH pathway, protects against endometrial cancer.

Circulating sex hormones and breast cancer risk factors in postmenopausal women: reanalysis of 13 studies.

BACKGROUND: Breast cancer risk for postmenopausal women is positively associated with circulating concentrations of oestrogens and androgens, but the determinants of these hormones are not well understood. METHODS: Cross-sectional analyses of breast cancer risk factors and circulating hormone concentrations in more than 6000 postmenopausal women controls in 13 prospective studies. RESULTS: Concentrations of all hormones were lower in older than younger women, with the largest difference for dehydroepiandrosterone sulphate (DHEAS), whereas sex hormone-binding globulin (SHBG) was higher in the older women. Androgens were lower in women with bilateral ovariectomy than in naturally postmenopausal women, with the largest difference for free testosterone. All hormones were higher in obese than lean women, with the largest difference for free oestradiol, whereas SHBG was lower in obese women. Smokers of 15+ cigarettes per day had higher levels of all hormones than non-smokers, with the largest difference for testosterone. Drinkers of 20+ g alcohol per day had higher levels of all hormones, but lower SHBG, than non-drinkers, with the largest difference for DHEAS. Hormone concentrations were not strongly related to age at menarche, parity, age at first full-term pregnancy or family history of breast cancer. CONCLUSION: Sex hormone concentrations were strongly associated with several established or suspected risk factors for breast cancer, and may mediate the effects of these factors on breast cancer risk.

Mediterranean dietary pattern and cancer risk in the EPIC cohort.

BACKGROUND: Although several studies have investigated the association of the Mediterranean diet with overall mortality or risk of specific cancers, data on overall cancer risk are sparse. METHODS: We examined the association between adherence to Mediterranean dietary pattern and overall cancer risk using data from the European Prospective Investigation Into Cancer and nutrition, a multi-centre prospective cohort study including 142,605 men and 335,873. Adherence to Mediterranean diet was examined using a score (range: 0-9) considering the combined intake of fruits and nuts, vegetables, legumes, cereals, lipids, fish, dairy products, meat products, and alcohol. Association with cancer incidence was assessed through Cox regression modelling, controlling for potential confounders. RESULTS: In all, 9669 incident cancers in men and 21,062 in women were identified. A lower overall cancer risk was found among individuals with greater adherence to Mediterranean diet (hazard ratio=0.96, 95% CI 0.95-0.98) for a two-point increment of the Mediterranean diet score. The apparent inverse association was stronger for smoking-related cancers than for cancers not known to be related to tobacco (P (heterogeneity)=0.008). In all, 4.7% of cancers among men and 2.4% in women would be avoided in this population if study subjects had a greater adherence to Mediterranean dietary pattern. CONCLUSION: Greater adherence to a Mediterranean dietary pattern could reduce overall cancer risk.

General and abdominal adiposity and risk of death in Europe.

BACKGROUND: Previous studies have relied predominantly on the body-mass index (BMI, the weight in kilograms divided by the square of the height in meters) to assess the association of adiposity with the risk of death, but few have examined whether the distribution of body fat contributes to the prediction of death. METHODS: We examined the association of BMI, waist circumference, and waist-to-hip ratio with the risk of death among 359,387 participants from nine countries in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC). We used a Cox regression analysis, with age as the time variable, and stratified the models according to study center and age at recruitment, with further adjustment for educational level, smoking status, alcohol consumption, physical activity, and height. RESULTS: During a mean follow-up of 9.7 years, 14,723 participants died. The lowest risks of death related to BMI were observed at a BMI of 25.3 for men and 24.3 for women. After adjustment for BMI, waist circumference and waist-to-hip ratio were strongly associated with the risk of death. Relative risks among men and women in the highest quintile of waist circumference were 2.05 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.80 to 2.33) and 1.78 (95% CI, 1.56 to 2.04), respectively, and in the highest quintile of waist-to-hip ratio, the relative risks were 1.68 (95% CI, 1.53 to 1.84) and 1.51 (95% CI, 1.37 to 1.66), respectively. BMI remained significantly associated with the risk of death in models that included waist circumference or waist-to-hip ratio (P<0.001). CONCLUSIONS: These data suggest that both general adiposity and abdominal adiposity are associated with the risk of death and support the use of waist circumference or waist-to-hip ratio in addition to BMI in assessing the risk of death.

Metabolic syndrome and rare gynecological cancers in the metabolic syndrome and cancer project (Me-Can).

BACKGROUND: Risk factors for rare gynecological cancers are largely unknown. Initial research has indicated that the metabolic syndrome (MetS) or individual components could play a role. MATERIALS AND METHODS: The Metabolic syndrome and Cancer project cohort includes 288,834 women. During an average follow-up of 11 years, 82 vulvar, 26 vaginal and 43 other rare gynecological cancers were identified. Hazard ratios (HRs) were estimated fitting Cox proportional hazards regression models for tertiles and standardized z-scores [with a mean of 0 and a standard deviation (SD) of 1] of body mass index (BMI), blood pressure, glucose, cholesterol, triglycerides and MetS. Risk estimates were corrected for random error in the measurement of metabolic factors. RESULTS: The MetS was associated with increased risk of vulvar [HR 1.78, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.30-2.41) and vaginal cancer (HR 1.87, 95% CI 1.07-3.25). Among separate MetS components, 1 SD increase in BMI was associated with overall risk (HR 1.43, 95% CI 1.23-1.66), vulvar (HR 1.36, 95% CI 1.11-1.69) and vaginal cancer (HR 1.79, 95% CI 1.30-2.46). Blood glucose and triglyceride concentrations were associated with increased risk of vulvar cancer (HR 1.98, 95% CI 1.10-3.58 and HR 2.09, 95% CI 1.39-3.15, respectively). CONCLUSION: The results from this first prospective study on rare gynecological cancers suggest that the MetS and its individual components may play a role in the development of these tumors.

Abdominal and gynoid adiposity and the risk of stroke.

BACKGROUND: Previous studies have indicated that fat distribution is important in the development of cardiovascular disease (CVD). We investigated the association between fat distribution, as measured by dual energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA), and the incidence of stroke. METHODS: A cohort of 2751 men and women aged ≥40 years was recruited. Baseline levels of abdominal, gynoid and total body fat were measured by DXA. Body mass index (BMI, kg m(-2)) was calculated. Stroke incidence was recorded using the regional stroke registry until subjects reached 75 years of age. RESULTS: During a mean follow-up time of 8 years and 9 months, 91 strokes occurred. Of the adiposity indices accessed abdominal fat mass was the best predictor of stroke in women (hazard ratio (HR)=1.66, 95% confidence interval (CI)=1.23-2.24 per standard deviation increase), whereas the ratio of gynoid fat to total fat mass was associated with a decreased risk of stroke (HR=0.72, 95% CI=0.54-0.96). Abdominal fat mass was the only of the adiposity indices assessed that was found to be a significant predictor of stroke in men (HR=1.49, 95% CI=1.06-2.09). The associations between abdominal fat mass and stroke remained significant in both women and men after adjustment for BMI (HR=1.80, 95% CI=1.06-3.07; HR=1.71, 95% CI=1.13-2.59, respectively). However, in a subgroup analyses abdominal fat was not a significant predictor after further adjustment for diabetes, smoking and hypertension. CONCLUSION: Abdominal fat mass is a risk factor for stroke independent of BMI, but not independent of diabetes, smoking and hypertension. This indicates that the excess in stroke risk associated with abdominal fat mass is at least partially mediated through traditional stroke risk factors.

Physical activity in middle-aged women and hip fracture risk: the UFO study.

UNLABELLED: In a population-based case-control study, we demonstrate that middle-aged women who were active with walking or in different physical spare time activities were at lower risk of later sustaining a hip fracture compared to more sedentary women. INTRODUCTION: In middle-aged women participating in the Umeå Fracture and Osteoporosis (UFO) study, we investigated whether physical activity is associated with a subsequent decreased risk of sustaining a hip fracture. METHODS: The UFO study is a nested case-control study investigating associations between bone markers, lifestyle, and osteoporotic fractures. We identified 81 female hip fracture cases that had reported lifestyle data before they sustained their fracture. Each case was compared with two female controls who were identified from the same cohort and matched for age and week of reporting data, yielding a total cohort of 237 subjects. Mean age at baseline was 57.2 ± 5.0 years, and mean age at fracture was 65.4 ± 6.4 years. RESULTS: Conditional logistic regression analysis with adjustments for height, weight, smoking, and menopausal status showed that subjects who were regularly active with walking or had a moderate or high frequency of physical spare time activities (i.e. berry/mushroom picking and snow shovelling) were at reduced risk of sustaining a hip fracture (OR 0.14; 95% CI; 0.05-0.53 for walking and OR 0.19; 95% CI; 0.08-0.46, OR 0.17, 95% CI; 0.05-0.64 for moderate and high frequency of spare time activities, respectively) compared to more sedentary women. CONCLUSION: An active lifestyle in middle age seems to reduce the risk of future hip fracture. Possible mechanisms may include improved muscle strength, coordination, and balance resulting in a decreased risk of falling and perhaps also direct skeletal benefits.

Evaluating the discriminative power of multi-trait genetic risk scores for type 2 diabetes in a northern Swedish population.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: We determined whether single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) previously associated with diabetogenic traits improve the discriminative power of a type 2 diabetes genetic risk score. METHODS: Participants (n = 2,751) were genotyped for 73 SNPs previously associated with type 2 diabetes, fasting glucose/insulin concentrations, obesity or lipid levels, from which five genetic risk scores (one for each of the four traits and one combining all SNPs) were computed. Type 2 diabetes patients and non-diabetic controls (n = 1,327/1,424) were identified using medical records in addition to an independent oral glucose tolerance test. RESULTS: Model 1, including only SNPs associated with type 2 diabetes, had a discriminative power of 0.591 (p < 1.00 x 10(-20) vs null model) as estimated by the area under the receiver operator characteristic curve (ROC AUC). Model 2, including only fasting glucose/insulin SNPs, had a significantly higher discriminative power than the null model (ROC AUC 0.543; p = 9.38 x 10(-6) vs null model), but lower discriminative power than model 1 (p = 5.92 x 10(-5)). Model 3, with only lipid-associated SNPs, had significantly higher discriminative power than the null model (ROC AUC 0.565; p = 1.44 x 10(-9)) and was not statistically different from model 1 (p = 0.083). The ROC AUC of model 4, which included only obesity SNPs, was 0.557 (p = 2.30 x 10(-7) vs null model) and smaller than model 1 (p = 0.025). Finally, the model including all SNPs yielded a significant improvement in discriminative power compared with the null model (p < 1.0 x 10(-20)) and model 1 (p = 1.32 x 10(-5)); its ROC AUC was 0.626. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: Adding SNPs previously associated with fasting glucose, insulin, lipids or obesity to a genetic risk score for type 2 diabetes significantly increases the power to discriminate between people with and without clinically manifest type 2 diabetes compared with a model including only conventional type 2 diabetes loci.

Oral contraceptives, reproductive history and risk of colorectal cancer in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition.

BACKGROUND: Oral contraceptive use and reproductive factors may initiate long-term changes to the hormonal milieu and thereby, possibly influence colorectal cancer risk. METHODS: We examined the association of hormonal and reproductive factors with risk of colorectal cancer among 337,802 women in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition, of whom 1878 developed colorectal cancer. RESULTS: After stratification for center and age, and adjustment for body mass index, smoking, diabetes mellitus, physical activity and alcohol consumption, ever use of oral contraceptives was marginally inversely associated with colorectal cancer risk (hazard ratio (HR), 0.92; 95% confidence interval (CI), 0.83-1.02), although this association was stronger among post-menopausal women (HR, 0.84; 95% CI: 0.74-0.95). Duration of oral contraceptive use and reproductive factors, including age at menarche, age at menopause, type of menopause, ever having an abortion, parity, age at first full-term pregnancy and breastfeeding, were not associated with colorectal cancer risk. CONCLUSION: Our findings provide limited support for a potential inverse association between oral contraceptives and colorectal cancer risk.

Dietary beta-carotene, vitamin C and E intake and breast cancer risk in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC).

So far, studies on dietary antioxidant intake, including beta-carotene, vitamin C and vitamin E, and breast cancer risk are inconclusive. Thus, we addressed this question in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition. During a median follow-up time of 8.8 years, 7,502 primary invasive breast cancer cases were identified. Cox proportional hazard models were used to estimate hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI). All analyses were run stratified by menopausal status at recruitment and, additionally, by smoking status, alcohol intake, use of exogenous hormones and use of dietary supplements. In the multivariate analyses, dietary intake of beta-carotene, vitamin C and E was not associated with breast cancer risk in premenopausal [highest vs. lowest quintile: HR, 1.04 (95% CI, 0.85-1.27), 1.12 (0.92-1.36) and 1.11 (0.84-1.46), respectively] and postmenopausal women [0.93 (0.82-1.04), 0.98 (0.87-1.11) and 0.92 (0.77-1.11), respectively]. However, in postmenopausal women using exogenous hormones, high intake of beta-carotene [highest vs. lowest quintile; HR 0.79 (95% CI, 0.66-0.96), P (trend) 0.06] and vitamin C [0.88 (0.72-1.07), P (trend) 0.05] was associated with reduced breast cancer risk. In addition, dietary beta-carotene was associated with a decreased risk in postmenopausal women with high alcohol intake. Overall, dietary intake of beta-carotene, vitamin C and E was not related to breast cancer risk in neither pre- nor postmenopausal women. However, in subgroups of postmenopausal women, a weak protective effect between beta-carotene and vitamin E from food and breast cancer risk cannot be excluded.