Unifying life-history analyses for inference of fitness and population growth.

The lifetime fitnesses of individuals comprising a population determine its numerical dynamics, and genetic variation in fitness results in evolutionary change. This dual importance of individual fitness is well understood, but empirical fitness records generally violate the assumptions of standard statistical approaches. This problem has undermined comprehensive study of fitness and impeded empirical synthesis of the numerical and genetic dynamics of populations. Recently developed aster models remedy this problem by explicitly modeling the dependence of later-expressed components of fitness (e.g., fecundity) on those expressed earlier (e.g., survival to reproduce). Moreover, aster models employ different sampling distributions for different components of fitness (e.g., binomial for survival over a given interval and Poisson for fecundity). Analysis is done by maximum likelihood, and the resulting distributions for lifetime fitness closely approximate observed data. We illustrate the breadth of aster models' utility with three examples demonstrating estimation of the finite rate of increase, comparison of mean fitness among genotypic groups, and analysis of phenotypic selection. Aster models offer a unified approach to addressing the breadth of questions in evolution and ecology for which life-history data are gathered.

The effect of plant inbreeding and stoichiometry on interactions with herbivores in nature: Echinacea angustifolia and its specialist aphid.

Fragmentation of once widespread communities may alter interspecific interactions by changing genetic composition of interacting populations as well as their abundances and spatial distributions. In a long-term study of a fragmented population of Echinacea angustifolia, a perennial plant native to the North American prairie, we investigated influences on its interaction with a specialist aphid and tending ants. We grew plant progeny of sib-matings (I), and of random pairings within (W) and between (B) seven remnants in a common field within 8 km of the source remnants. During the fifth growing season, we determined each plant's burden of aphids and ants, as well as its size and foliar elemental composition (C, N, P). We also assayed composition (C, N) of aphids and ants. Early in the season, progeny from genotypic classes B and I were twice as likely to harbor aphids, and in greater abundance, than genotypic class W; aphid loads were inversely related to foliar concentration of P and positively related to leaf N and plant size. At the end of the season, aphid loads were indistinguishable among genotypic classes. Ant abundance tracked aphid abundance throughout the season but showed no direct relationship with plant traits. Through its potential to alter the genotypic composition of remnant populations of Echinacea, fragmentation can increase Echinacea's susceptibility to herbivory by its specialist aphid and, in turn, perturb the abundance and distribution of aphids.

Biparental inbreeding and interremnant mating in a perennial prairie plant: fitness consequences for progeny in their first eight years.

Despite fundamental importance to population dynamics, mating system evolution, and conservation management, the fitness consequences of breeding patterns in natural settings are rarely directly and rigorously evaluated. We experimentally crossed Echinacea angustifolia, a widespread, perennial prairie plant undergoing radical changes in distribution and abundance due to habitat fragmentation. We quantified the effects of both biparental inbreeding and crossing between remnant populations on progeny survival and reproduction in the field over the first eight years. Lifetime fitness is notoriously difficult to assess particularly for iteroparous species because of the long sequence and episodic nature of selection events. Even with fitness data in hand, analysis is typically plagued by nonnormal distributions of overall fitness that violate the assumptions of the usual parametric statistical approaches. We applied aster modeling, which integrates the measurements of separate, sequential, nonnormally distributed annual fitness components, and estimated current biparental inbreeding depression at 68% in progeny of sibling-mating. The effect of between-remnant crossing on fitness was negligible. Given that relatedness among individuals in remnant populations is already high and dispersal very limited, inbreeding depression may profoundly affect future dynamics and persistence of these populations, as well as their genetic composition.