A Method Using Longitudinal Laboratory Data to Predict Future Intestinal Complication in Patients with Crohn's Disease.

BACKGROUND: Stenosis, fistulization, and perforation of the bowel are severe outcomes which can occur in patients with Crohn's disease. Accurate prediction of these events may enable clinicians to alter treatment strategies and avoid these outcomes. AIMS: To study the correlation between longitudinal laboratory testing and subsequent intestinal complications in patients with Crohn's disease. METHODS: An observational cohort of patients with Crohn's disease at a single center were analyzed between 01/01/1994 and 06/30/2016. A complication was defined as the development of an intestinal fistula, stenosis, or perforation. Exploratory analysis using Cox regression was performed to select the best statistical method to represent longitudinal laboratory data. Cox regression was used to identify laboratory variables independently associated with the development of a subsequent complication. A clinical scoring tool was designed. RESULTS: In 246 patients observed over a median of 5.72 years, 134 complications occurred. Minimum or maximum value in a preceding window period of one year was most strongly associated with subsequent complication. A Longitudinal Laboratory score of ≥ 2 (maximum albumin level < 39 g/L = 1, maximum mean cell volume < 88 fL = 1, minimum platelet count > 355 × 109/L = 1, minimum C reactive protein > 5 mg/L = 1) was 62% sensitive and 91% specific in identifying patients who develop a subsequent complication. CONCLUSION: A consistent reduction in serum albumin and mean cell volume, and a consistent increase in platelet count and C reactive protein were associated with a subsequent complication in patients with Crohn's disease. Longitudinal laboratory tests may be used as described in this paper to provide a rational for earlier escalation of therapy.

Level of UV Exposure, Skin Type, and Age Are More Important than Thiopurine Use for Keratinocyte Carcinoma Development in IBD Patients.

BACKGROUND: Retrospective studies observe an increased risk of keratinocyte carcinomas (KCs) in patients with inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) on thiopurine (TP) medication. The role of traditional risk factors such as skin type and sun protection behavior has not been studied in this population. This study aimed to examine traditional KC risk factors and thiopurine use on skin cancer development in an IBD cohort. METHODS: Consecutive IBD patients were recruited from four specialist centers in Australia and New Zealand, each with varying UV exposure indices. Data pertaining to race, skin color, freckling and sun protection behavior, dose of TP therapy, and skin cancer development were elicited through a self-reported questionnaire. RESULTS: A total of 691 IBD patients were included with 62 reporting KC development. Thiopurine usage was similar among patients who developed skin cancer compared with those who did not (92% vs. 89%, p = 0.3). There was no statistically significant association between KC development and TP dose or 6-thioguanine nucleotide levels. In multivariate modeling, four factors were independently and significantly associated with KC: age over 61 years old versus less than 30 years old (OR 6.76; 95% CI 2.38-19.18), residing in Brisbane versus Christchurch (OR 3.3; 95% CI 1.6-6.8), never staying in the shade versus staying in the shade ≥ 50% of the time (OR 3.8; 95% CI 1.4-10.5), and having a skin type that never tanned versus other skin types (OR 6.9; 95% CI 2.9-16.0). CONCLUSION: Skin type, age, and sun protection behavior are more important risk factors for KC development than thiopurine medication use in this IBD population.

Short-term colectomy is avoided in over half of regional patients failing medical therapy for acute severe ulcerative colitis with co-ordinated transfer and tertiary care.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Many patients presenting with an acute severe ulcerative colitis to a regional hospital are transferred to a metropolitan hospital for specialised care. This study aimed to evaluate the outcomes and characteristics of these patients. METHOD: A retrospective observational cohort study was conducted to examine the 30-day colectomy rate using prospectively collected data on 69 consecutive index cases of acute severe ulcerative colitis transferred from regional hospitals to our metropolitan hospital meeting Truelove and Witts criteria. Those that avoided colectomy were followed out to 1 year to examine outcomes. RESULTS: The 30-day colectomy rate was 46.4% (32/69) in regional transfer patients. Rescue therapy was administered to 65% (45/69) of patients after transfer to our metropolitan hospital. Colectomy was avoided in 55% of these patients at 30 days. Colectomy free status was maintained in 78% (29/39) of these patients. Mortality was 0% at 30 days and 1 year. CONCLUSION: Over 50% of the patients failing therapy in a regional centre and requiring transfer avoided short term colectomy with co-ordinated referral for rescue therapy in a tertiary metropolitan inflammatory bowel disease unit. These patients would have ultimately required colectomy in their regional hospital without intervention.

Detectable Laboratory Abnormality Is Present up to 12 Months Prior to Diagnosis in Patients with Crohn's Disease.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Patients with inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) often have subjective symptoms for months or years prior to their diagnosis. Blood tests taken prior to diagnosis may provide objective evidence of duration of pre-diagnosis disease. We aim to describe the pre-diagnosis laboratory pattern of patients with IBD. METHODS: A total of 838 patients diagnosed with IBD between 01/01/1996 and 01/03/2014, with pre-diagnosis laboratory testing available, contributed data for analysis. C-reactive protein, erythrocyte sedimentation rate, hemoglobin level, mean cell volume (MCV) platelet count, white blood cell count, neutrophil count, albumin level, ferritin level, serum iron level, alanine transaminase level, and fecal calprotectin were examined in the 24 months leading up to diagnosis and compared to baseline data taken between 24 and 36 months prior to diagnosis. RESULTS: For patients with Crohn's disease, a significant drop in serum albumin and MCV levels and a significant rise in platelet count were observed between 115 and 385 days prior to diagnosis (p < 0.01, two-tailed t test). For patients with ulcerative colitis, a significant change in albumin level, MCV, hemoglobin level, platelet count, and serum iron level was observed at diagnosis (p < 0.01, two-tailed t test) but was not detectable before. CONCLUSIONS: These data provide objective evidence of duration of delay between disease onset and diagnosis in a cohort of patients with IBD. Expediting diagnostic testing in patients presenting with symptoms consistent with IBD, who also have abnormal laboratory results, may reduce diagnostic delay, speed access to therapy, and improve clinical outcomes.

Development and evaluation of a risk assessment tool to improve clinical triage accuracy for colonoscopic investigations.

BACKGROUND: Gastroenterology Departments at hospitals within Australia receive thousands of General Practitioner (GP)-referral letters for gastrointestinal investigations every month. Many of these requests are for colonoscopy. This study aims to evaluate the performance of the current symptoms-based triage system compared to a novel risk score using objective markers. METHODS: Patients with lower abdominal symptoms referred by their GPs and triaged by a Gastroenterology consultant to a colonoscopy consent clinic were recruited into the study. A risk assessment tool (RAT) was developed using objective data (clinical, demographic, pathology (stool test, FIT), standard blood tests and colonoscopy outcome). Colonoscopy and histology results were scored and then stratified as either significant bowel disease (SBD) or non-significant bowel disease (non-SBD). RESULTS: Of the 467 patients in our study, 45.1% were male, the mean age was 54.3 ± 13.8 years and mean BMI was 27.8 ± 6.2. Overall, 26% had SBD compared to 74% with non-SBD (42% of the cohort had a normal colonoscopy). Increasing severity of referral symptoms was related to a higher triage category, (rectal bleeding, P = 2.86*10-9; diarrhoea, P = 0.026; abdominal pain, P = 5.67*10-4). However, there was no significant difference in the prevalence of rectal bleeding (P = 0.991) or diarrhoea (P = 0.843) for SBD. Abdominal pain significantly reduced the risk of SBD (P = 0.0344, OR = 0.52, CI = 0.27-0.95). Conversely, the RAT had a very high specificity of 98% with PPV and NPV of SBD prediction, 74% and 77%, respectively. The RAT provided an odds ratio (OR) of 9.0, 95%CI 4.29-18.75, p = 2.32*10-11), higher than the FIT test (OR = 5.3, 95%CI 2.44-11.69, p = 4.88*10-6), blood score (OR = 2.8, 95%CI 1.72- 4.38, p = 1.47*10-5) or age (OR = 2.5, 95%CI 1.61-4.00, 5.12*10-5) independently. Notably, the ORs of these individual objective measures were higher than the current practice of symptoms-based triaging (OR = 1.4, 95%CI 0.88-2.11, p = 0.153). CONCLUSIONS: It is critical that individuals with high risk of having SBD are triaged to the appropriate category with the shortest wait time. Here we provide evidence that a combination of blood markers, demographic markers and the FIT test have a higher diagnostic accuracy for SBD than FIT alone.

An Extremes of Phenotype Approach Confirms Significant Genetic Heterogeneity in Patients with Ulcerative Colitis.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Ulcerative colitis [UC] is a major form of inflammatory bowel disease globally. Phenotypic heterogeneity is defined by several variables including age of onset and disease extent. The genetics of disease severity remains poorly understood. To further investigate this, we performed a genome wide association [GWA] study using an extremes of phenotype strategy. METHODS: We conducted GWA analyses in 311 patients with medically refractory UC [MRUC], 287 with non-medically refractory UC [non-MRUC] and 583 controls. Odds ratios [ORs] were calculated for known risk variants comparing MRUC and non-MRUC, and controls. RESULTS: MRUC-control analysis had the greatest yield of genome-wide significant single nucleotide polymorphisms [SNPs] [2018], including lead SNP = rs111838972 [OR = 1.82, p = 6.28 × 10-9] near MMEL1 and a locus in the human leukocyte antigen [HLA] region [lead SNP = rs144717024, OR = 12.23, p = 1.7 × 10-19]. ORs for the lead SNPs were significantly higher in MRUC compared to non-MRUC [p < 9.0 × 10-6]. No SNPs reached significance in the non-MRUC-control analysis (top SNP, rs7680780 [OR 2.70, p = 5.56 × 10-8). We replicate findings for rs4151651 in the Complement Factor B [CFB] gene and demonstrate significant changes in CFB gene expression in active UC. Detailed HLA analyses support the strong associations with MHC II genes, particularly HLA-DQA1, HLA-DQB1 and HLA-DRB1 in MRUC. CONCLUSIONS: Our MRUC subgroup replicates multiple known UC risk variants in contrast to non-MRUC and demonstrates significant differences in effect sizes compared to those published. Non-MRUC cases demonstrate lower ORs similar to those published. Additional risk and prognostic loci may be identified by targeted recruitment of individuals with severe disease.

Ileal Pouch-Anal Anastomosis for Ulcerative Colitis: An Australian Institution's Experience.

PURPOSE: We report outcomes and evaluate patient factors and the impact of surgical evolution on outcomes in consecutive ulcerative colitis patients who had restorative proctocolectomy with ileal pouch-anal anastomosis (IPAA) at an Australian institution over 26 years. METHODS: Data including clinical characteristics, preoperative medical therapy, and surgical outcomes were collected. We divided eligible patients into 3 period arms (period 1, 1990 to 1999; period 2, 2000 to 2009; period 3, 2010 to 2016). Outcomes of interest were IPAA leak and pouch failure. RESULTS: A total of 212 patients were included. Median follow-up was 50 (interquartile range, 17 to 120) months. Rates of early and late complications were 34.9% and 52.0%, respectively. Early complications included wound infection (9.4%), pelvic sepsis (8.0%), and small bowel obstruction (6.6%) while late complications included small bowel obstruction (18.9%), anal stenosis (16.8%), and pouch fistula (13.3%). Overall, IPAA leak rate was 6.1% and pouch failure rate was 4.8%. Eighty-three patients (42.3%) experienced pouchitis. Over time, we observed an increase in patient exposure to thiopurine (P=0.0025), cyclosporin (P=0.0002), and anti-tumor necrosis factor (P<0.00001) coupled with a shift to laparoscopic technique (P<0.00001), stapled IPAA (P<0.00001), J pouch configuration (P<0.00001), a modified 2-stage procedure (P=0.00012), and a decline in defunctioning ileostomy rate at time of IPAA (P=0.00002). Apart from pouchitis, there was no significant difference in surgical and chronic inflammatory pouch outcomes with time. CONCLUSION: Despite greater patient exposure to immunomodulatory and biologic therapy before surgery coupled with a significant change in surgical techniques, surgical and chronic inflammatory pouch outcome rates have remained stable.

A validated risk stratification tool for detecting high-risk small bowel Crohn's disease.

BACKGROUND: Delays in Crohn's disease (CD) diagnosis are positively associated with ileal location and an increased risk of complications. AIM: To develop a simple risk assessment tool to enable primary care physicians to recognise potential ileal CD earlier, shortening the delay to specialist investigation METHODS: Three cohorts were acquired for this study. Cohort 1 included 61 patients retrospectively identified with ileal CD between 2000 and 2010 and 78 matched controls drawn from a cohort referred for investigation of abdominal symptoms. Cohort 2 included 42 individuals diagnosed with ileal CD and 57 controls identified prospectively. Cohort 3 included an additional 84 individuals with ileal CD and 495 without CD referred for colonoscopy. Clinical symptoms and serological biomarkers were acquired and used to develop a risk prediction algorithm. The algorithm was trained independently on each of the three cohorts and tested on the latter two cohorts. RESULTS: Altered bowel habit with abdominal pain combined with derangements in white cell count (WCC), albumin and platelet counts were important features in predicting ileal CD (AUC = 0.92, 95% CI = 0.89-0.92). This was validated in cohorts 2 (AUC = 0.96, 95% CI = 0.95-0.98) and 3 (AUC = 0.94, 95% CI = 0.92-0.96). C-reactive protein was independently associated with ileal CD but non-signficant in a multivariate model. CONCLUSION: A web-based risk stratification tool for ileal CD has been developed from objective and symptom-based criteria. This tool enables primary care physicians to more confidently request urgent specialist assessment for patients identified as at high risk for ileal CD.

The effect of pre-admission immunosuppression on colectomy rates in acute severe ulcerative colitis.

BACKGROUND: Patients on immunosuppression at the time of acute severe ulcerative colitis have been suggested to be at a higher risk of colectomy than those who are treatment-naïve. The aim of this study was to examine the effect of immunosuppressive therapy on the risk of colectomy. METHOD: We conducted a retrospective observational cohort study using prospective data examining the 30 day and 1 year colectomy rates of 200 consecutive patients with an index episode of acute severe ulcerative colitis as defined by the Truelove and Witts criteria. RESULTS: Immunosuppression on admission was shown not to increase colectomy rate at 30 days post-admission (immunomodulator: p = 0.422, oral steroids: p = 0.555). A total of 24 patients underwent colectomy between 30 days and 1 year. A three-fold higher risk of colectomy at 1 year was seen in those requiring an immunomodulator prior to the index admission compared with those started de novo during the index admission [41% versus 14% odds ratio (OR): 2.93 (1.19-7.24 p = 0.016)]. Factors most predictive of colectomy at 30 days were abdominal radiographic colonic dilation ⩾5.5 cm, first presentation of ulcerative colitis, C-reactive protein ⩾ 45 mg/l on day 3 of therapy and bowel frequency ⩾8 on day 3. CONCLUSION: The need for an immunomodulator prior to admission with acute severe ulcerative colitis increases the medium-term colectomy rate by three-fold at 1 year. Prospective studies are needed to confirm these findings and develop strategies to reduce the high risk in this subgroup of patients.

A rolling phenotype in Crohn's disease.

BACKGROUND AND AIM: The Montreal classification of disease behaviour in Crohn's disease describes progression of disease towards a stricturing and penetrating phenotype. In the present paper, we propose an alternative representation of the long-term course of Crohn's disease complications, the rolling phenotype. As is commonly observed in clinical practice, this definition allows progression to a more severe phenotype (stricturing, penetrating) but also, regression to a less severe behaviour (inflammatory, or remission) over time. METHODS: All patients diagnosed with Crohn's Disease between 01/01/1994 and 01/03/2008, managed at a single centre and observed for a minimum of 5 years, had development and resolution of all complications recorded. A rolling phenotype was defined at each time point based on all observed complications in the three years prior to the time point. Phenotype was defined as B1, B2, B3, or B23 (penetrating and stenotic). The progression over time of the rolling phenotype was compared to that of the cumulative Montreal phenotype. RESULTS: 305 patients were observed a median of 10.0 (Intraquartile range 7.3-13.7) years. Longitudinal progression of rolling phenotype demonstrated a consistent proportion of patients with B1 (70%), B2 (20%), B3 (5%) and B23 (5%) phenotypes. These proportions were observed regardless of initial phenotype. In contrast, the cumulative Montreal phenotype progressed towards a more severe phenotype with time (B1 (39%), B2 (26%), B3(35%) at 10 years). CONCLUSION: A rolling phenotype provides an alternative view of the longitudinal burden of intra-abdominal complications in Crohn's disease. From this viewpoint, 70% of patients have durable freedom from complication over time (>3 years).

Genetic susceptibility in IBD: overlap between ulcerative colitis and Crohn's disease.

BACKGROUND: The etiology of ulcerative colitis (UC) and Crohn's disease (CD) involves both genetic and environmental components. Multiple UC and CD susceptibility genes have been identified through genome-wide association studies and subsequent meta-analyses. These studies have also highlighted the presence of genes common to both diseases, and shared with several other autoimmune disorders. The aim of this study was to identify single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) recently identified by the International IBD Genetics Consortium (IIBDGC) demonstrating that highly significant associations with CD could also confer genetic susceptibility to UC. METHODS: Statistical modeling was performed on 29 CD-associated SNPs. The study comprised of 1652 UC cases from the Australia and New Zealand IBD Consortium and 2363 Australian population-based controls. RESULTS: After adjustment for multiple comparisons, only one SNP, rs3024505, was significantly associated with UC (P = 0.001). Independent chi-square analyses identified odds ratios of 2.22 (1.48-3.37) for the rare homozygous genotype, and 1.20 (1.06-1.35) for the minor allele. Five other SNPs demonstrated moderate to weak associations with UC. CONCLUSIONS: Of the 29 SNPs conferring high genetic susceptibility to CD, 28 were not associated with UC, thus indicating that for this SNP set there is a low level of overlap between the two major forms of IBD. Only one SNP, rs3024505 (Chr 1q32.1, upstream of IL10), was associated with susceptibility to UC. The identification of this SNP replicates a finding from Franke et al (2008), where the rs3024505 SNP was strongly associated with UC across multiple European populations.

Crohn's disease and smoking: is it ever too late to quit?

BACKGROUND: Smoking increases CD risk. The aim was to determine if smoking cessation at, prior to, or following, CD diagnosis affects medication use, disease phenotypic progression and/or surgery. METHODS: Data on CD patients with disease for ≥5 yrs were collected retrospectively including the Montreal classification, smoking history, CD-related abdominal surgeries, family history, medication use and disease behaviour at diagnosis and the time when the disease behaviour changed. RESULTS: 1115 patients were included across six sites (mean follow-up-16.6 yrs). More non-smokers were male (p=0.047) with A1 (p<0.0001), L4 (p=0.028) and perianal (p=0.03) disease. Non-smokers more frequently received anti-TNF agents (p=0.049). (p=0.017: OR 2.5 95%CI 1.18-5.16) and those who ceased smoking prior to diagnosis (p=0.045: OR 2.3 95%CI 1.02-5.21) progressed to complicated (B2/B3) disease as compared to those quitting at diagnosis. Patients with uncomplicated terminal ileal disease at diagnosis more frequently developed B2/B3 disease than isolated colonic CD (p<0.0001). B2/B3 disease was more frequent with perianal disease (p<0.0001) and if i.v. steroids (p=0.004) or immunosuppressants (p<0.0001) were used. 49.3% (558/1115) of patients required at least one intestinal surgery. More smokers had a 2nd surgical resection than patients who quit at, or before, the 1st resection and non-smokers (p=0.044: HR=1.39 95%CI 1.01-1.91). Patients smoking >3 cigarettes/day had an increased risk of developing B2/B3 disease (p=0.012: OR 3.8 95%CI 1.27-11.17). CONCLUSION: Progression to B2/B3 disease and surgery is reduced by smoking cessation. All CD patients regardless of when they were diagnosed, or how many surgeries, should be strongly encouraged to cease smoking.