The emergence and ongoing convergent evolution of the SARS-CoV-2 N501Y lineages.

The independent emergence late in 2020 of the B.1.1.7, B.1.351, and P.1 lineages of SARS-CoV-2 prompted renewed concerns about the evolutionary capacity of this virus to overcome public health interventions and rising population immunity. Here, by examining patterns of synonymous and non-synonymous mutations that have accumulated in SARS-CoV-2 genomes since the pandemic began, we find that the emergence of these three "501Y lineages" coincided with a major global shift in the selective forces acting on various SARS-CoV-2 genes. Following their emergence, the adaptive evolution of 501Y lineage viruses has involved repeated selectively favored convergent mutations at 35 genome sites, mutations we refer to as the 501Y meta-signature. The ongoing convergence of viruses in many other lineages on this meta-signature suggests that it includes multiple mutation combinations capable of promoting the persistence of diverse SARS-CoV-2 lineages in the face of mounting host immune recognition.

Variant-specific introduction and dispersal dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 in New York City - from Alpha to Omicron.

Since the latter part of 2020, SARS-CoV-2 evolution has been characterised by the emergence of viral variants associated with distinct biological characteristics. While the main research focus has centred on the ability of new variants to increase in frequency and impact the effective reproductive number of the virus, less attention has been placed on their relative ability to establish transmission chains and to spread through a geographic area. Here, we describe a phylogeographic approach to estimate and compare the introduction and dispersal dynamics of the main SARS-CoV-2 variants - Alpha, Iota, Delta, and Omicron - that circulated in the New York City area between 2020 and 2022. Notably, our results indicate that Delta had a lower ability to establish sustained transmission chains in the NYC area and that Omicron (BA.1) was the variant fastest to disseminate across the study area. The analytical approach presented here complements non-spatially-explicit analytical approaches that seek a better understanding of the epidemiological differences that exist among successive SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern.

Selection Analysis Identifies Clusters of Unusual Mutational Changes in Omicron Lineage BA.1 That Likely Impact Spike Function.

Among the 30 nonsynonymous nucleotide substitutions in the Omicron S-gene are 13 that have only rarely been seen in other SARS-CoV-2 sequences. These mutations cluster within three functionally important regions of the S-gene at sites that will likely impact (1) interactions between subunits of the Spike trimer and the predisposition of subunits to shift from down to up configurations, (2) interactions of Spike with ACE2 receptors, and (3) the priming of Spike for membrane fusion. We show here that, based on both the rarity of these 13 mutations in intrapatient sequencing reads and patterns of selection at the codon sites where the mutations occur in SARS-CoV-2 and related sarbecoviruses, prior to the emergence of Omicron the mutations would have been predicted to decrease the fitness of any virus within which they occurred. We further propose that the mutations in each of the three clusters therefore cooperatively interact to both mitigate their individual fitness costs, and, in combination with other mutations, adaptively alter the function of Spike. Given the evident epidemic growth advantages of Omicron overall previously known SARS-CoV-2 lineages, it is crucial to determine both how such complex and highly adaptive mutation constellations were assembled within the Omicron S-gene, and why, despite unprecedented global genomic surveillance efforts, the early stages of this assembly process went completely undetected.

Dispersal dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 lineages during the first epidemic wave in New York City.

During the first phase of the COVID-19 epidemic, New York City rapidly became the epicenter of the pandemic in the United States. While molecular phylogenetic analyses have previously highlighted multiple introductions and a period of cryptic community transmission within New York City, little is known about the circulation of SARS-CoV-2 within and among its boroughs. We here perform phylogeographic investigations to gain insights into the circulation of viral lineages during the first months of the New York City outbreak. Our analyses describe the dispersal dynamics of viral lineages at the state and city levels, illustrating that peripheral samples likely correspond to distinct dispersal events originating from the main metropolitan city areas. In line with the high prevalence recorded in this area, our results highlight the relatively important role of the borough of Queens as a transmission hub associated with higher local circulation and dispersal of viral lineages toward the surrounding boroughs.

Virion-Associated Nucleic Acid-Based Metagenomics: A Decade of Advances in Molecular Characterization of Plant Viruses.

Over the last decade, viral metagenomic studies have resulted in the discovery of thousands of previously unknown viruses. These studies are likely to play a pivotal role in obtaining an accurate and robust understanding of how viruses affect the stability and productivity of ecosystems. Among the metagenomics-based approaches that have been developed since the beginning of the 21st century, shotgun metagenomics applied specifically to virion-associated nucleic acids (VANA) has been used to disentangle the diversity of the viral world. We summarize herein the results of 24 VANA-based studies, focusing on plant and insect samples conducted over the last decade (2010 to 2020). Collectively, viruses from 85 different families were reliably detected in these studies, including capsidless RNA viruses that replicate in fungi, oomycetes, and plants. Finally, strengths and weaknesses of the VANA approach are summarized and perspectives of applications in detection, epidemiological surveillance, environmental monitoring, and ecology of plant viruses are provided. [Formula: see text] Copyright © 2022 The Author(s). This is an open access article distributed under the CC BY-NC-ND 4.0 International license.

Evidence for both Intermittent and Persistent Compartmentalization of HIV-1 in the Female Genital Tract.

HIV-1 has been shown to evolve independently in different anatomical compartments, but studies in the female genital tract have been inconclusive. Here, we examined evidence of compartmentalization using HIV-1 subtype C envelope (Env) glycoprotein genes (gp160) obtained from matched cervicovaginal lavage (CVL) and plasma samples over 2 to 3 years of infection. HIV-1 gp160 amplification from CVL was achieved for only 4 of 18 acutely infected women, and this was associated with the presence of proinflammatory cytokines and/or measurable viremia in the CVL. Maximum likelihood trees and divergence analyses showed that all four individuals had monophyletic compartment-specific clusters of CVL- and/or plasma-derived gp160 sequences at all or some time points. However, two participants (CAP177 and CAP217) had CVL gp160 diversity patterns that differed from those in plasma and showed restricted viral flow from the CVL. Statistical tests of compartmentalization revealed evidence of persistent compartment-specific gp160 evolution in CAP177, while in CAP217 this was intermittent. Lastly, we identified several Env sites that distinguished viruses in these two compartments; for CAP177, amino acid differences arose largely through positive selection, while insertions/deletions were more common in CAP217. In both cases these differences contributed to substantial charge changes spread across the Env. Our data indicate that, in some women, HIV-1 populations within the genital tract can have Env genetic features that differ from those of viruses in plasma, which could impact the sensitivity of viruses in the genital tract to vaginal microbicides and vaccine-elicited antibodies.IMPORTANCE Most HIV-1 infections in sub-Saharan Africa are acquired heterosexually through the genital mucosa. Understanding the properties of viruses replicating in the female genital tract, and whether these properties differ from those of more commonly studied viruses replicating in the blood, is therefore important. Using longitudinal CVL and plasma-derived sequences from four HIV-1 subtype C-infected women, we found fewer viral migrations from the genital tract to plasma than in the opposite direction, suggesting a mucosal sieve effect from the genital tract to the blood compartment. Evidence for both persistent and intermittent compartmentalization between the genital tract and plasma viruses during chronic infection was detected in two of four individuals, perhaps explaining previously conflicting findings. In cases where compartmentalization occurred, comparison of CVL- and plasma-derived HIV sequences indicated that distinct features of viral populations in the CVL may affect the efficacy of microbicides and vaccines designed to provide mucosal immunity.

Diverse genomoviruses representing twenty-nine species identified associated with plants.

Genomoviruses (family Genomoviridae) are circular single-stranded DNA viruses that have been mainly identified through metagenomics studies in a wide variety of samples from various environments. Here, we describe 98 genomes of genomoviruses found associated with members of 19 plant families from Australia, Brazil, France, South Africa and the USA. These 98 genomoviruses represent 29 species, 26 of which are new, in the genera Gemykolovirus (n = 37), Gemyduguivirus (n = 9), Gemygorvirus (n = 8), Gemykroznavirus (n = 6), Gemycircularvirus (n = 21) and Gemykibivirus (n = 17).

Novel circular DNA viruses associated with Apiaceae and Poaceae from South Africa and New Zealand.

Advances in molecular techniques used in viral metagenomics coupled with high throughput sequencing is rapidly expanding our knowledge of plant-associated virus diversity. Applying such approaches, we have identified five novel circular replication-associated protein (Rep)-encoding single-stranded (CRESS) DNA viruses from Poaceae and Apiaceae plant from South Africa and New Zealand. These viruses have a simple genomic organization, including two open reading frames that likely encode a Rep and a capsid protein (CP), a conserved nonanucleotide motif on the apex of a putative stem loop structure, and conserved rolling-circle replication and helicase motifs within their likely Rep: all suggesting that they replicate through rolling-circle replication. The Reps and the CPs putatively encoded by these five novel viruses share low to moderate degrees of similarity (22.1 - 44.6%) with other CRESS DNA viruses.

Divergent evolutionary and epidemiological dynamics of cassava mosaic geminiviruses in Madagascar.

BACKGROUND: Cassava mosaic disease (CMD) in Madagascar is caused by a complex of at least six African cassava mosaic geminivirus (CMG) species. This provides a rare opportunity for a comparative study of the evolutionary and epidemiological dynamics of distinct pathogenic crop-infecting viral species that coexist within the same environment. The genetic and spatial structure of CMG populations in Madagascar was studied and Bayesian phylogeographic modelling was applied to infer the origins of Madagascan CMG populations within the epidemiological context of related populations situated on mainland Africa and other south western Indian Ocean (SWIO) islands. RESULTS: The isolation and analysis of 279 DNA-A and 117 DNA-B sequences revealed the presence in Madagascar of four prevalent CMG species (South African cassava mosaic virus, SACMV; African cassava mosaic virus, ACMV; East African cassava mosaic Kenya virus, EACMKV; and East African cassava mosaic Cameroon virus, EACMCV), and of numerous CMG recombinants that have, to date, only ever been detected on this island. SACMV and ACMV, the two most prevalent viruses, displayed low degrees of genetic diversity and have most likely been introduced to the island only once. By contrast, EACMV-like CMG populations (consisting of East African cassava mosaic virus, EAMCKV, EACMCV and complex recombinants of these) were more diverse, more spatially structured, and displayed evidence of at least three independent introductions from mainland Africa. Although there were no statistically supported virus movement events between Madagascar and the other SWIO islands, at least one mainland African ACMV variant likely originated in Madagascar. CONCLUSIONS: Our study highlights both the complexity of CMD in Madagascar, and the distinct evolutionary and spatial dynamics of the different viral species that collectively are associated with this disease. Given that more distinct CMG species and recombinants have been found in Madagascar than any other similarly sized region of the world, the risks of recombinant CMG variants emerging on this island are likely to be higher than elsewhere. Evidence of an epidemiological link between Madagascan and mainland African CMGs suggests that the consequences of such emergence events could reach far beyond the shores of this island.

The influence of secondary structure, selection and recombination on rubella virus nucleotide substitution rate estimates.

BACKGROUND: Annually, rubella virus (RV) still causes severe congenital defects in around 100 000 children globally. An attempt to eradicate RV is currently underway and analytical tools to monitor the global decline of the last remaining RV lineages will be useful for assessing the effectiveness of this endeavour. RV evolves rapidly enough that much of this information might be inferable from RV genomic sequence data. METHODS: Using BEASTv1.8.0, we analysed publically available RV sequence data to estimate genome-wide and gene-specific nucleotide substitution rates to test whether current estimates of RV substitution rates are representative of the entire RV genome. We specifically accounted for possible confounders of nucleotide substitution rate estimates, such as temporally biased sampling, sporadic recombination, and natural selection favouring either increased or decreased genetic diversity (estimated by the PARRIS and FUBAR methods), at nucleotide sites within the genomic secondary structures (predicted by the NASP method). RESULTS: We determine that RV nucleotide substitution rates range from 1.19 × 10(-3) substitutions/site/year in the E1 region to 7.52 × 10(-4) substitutions/site/year in the P150 region. We find that differences between substitution rate estimates in different RV genome regions are largely attributable to temporal sampling biases such that datasets containing higher proportions of recently sampled sequences, will tend to have inflated estimates of mean substitution rates. Although there exists little evidence of positive selection or natural genetic recombination in RV, we show that RV genomes possess pervasive biologically functional nucleic acid secondary structure and that purifying selection acting to maintain this structure contributes substantially to variations in estimated nucleotide substitution rates across RV genomes. CONCLUSION: Both temporal sampling biases and purifying selection favouring the conservation of RV nucleic acid secondary structures have an appreciable impact on substitution rate estimates but do not preclude the use of RV sequence data to date ancestral sequences. The combination of uniformly high substitution rates across the RV genome and strong temporal structure within the available sequence data, suggests that such data should be suitable for tracking the demographic, epidemiological and movement dynamics of this virus during eradication attempts.

Extensive recombination detected among beak and feather disease virus isolates from breeding facilities in Poland.

Beak and feather disease virus (BFDV) causes the highly contagious, in some cases fatal, psittacine beak and feather disease in parrots. The European continent has no native parrots, yet in the past has been one of the world's biggest importers of wild-caught exotic parrot species. Following the banning of this practice in 2007, the demand for exotic pet parrots has largely been met by established European breeding facilities, which can also supply buyers outside Europe. However, the years of unregulated importation have provided numerous opportunities for BFDV to enter Europe, meaning the likelihood of birds within captive breeding facilities being BFDV positive is high. This study examined the BFDV status of such facilities in Poland, a country previously shown to have BFDV among captive birds. A total of 209 birds from over 50 captive breeding facilities across Poland were tested, and 43 birds from 18 different facilities tested positive for BFDV. The full BFDV genomes from these 43 positive birds were determined, and phylogenetic analysis revealed that these samples harboured a relatively high degree of diversity and that they were highly recombinant. It is evident that there have been multiple introductions of BFDV into Poland over a long period of time, and the close association of different species of birds in the captive environment has probably facilitated the evolution of new BFDV strains through recombination.

East African cassava mosaic-like viruses from Africa to Indian ocean islands: molecular diversity, evolutionary history and geographical dissemination of a bipartite begomovirus.

BACKGROUND: Cassava (Manihot esculenta) is a major food source for over 200 million sub-Saharan Africans. Unfortunately, its cultivation is severely hampered by cassava mosaic disease (CMD). Caused by a complex of bipartite cassava mosaic geminiviruses (CMG) species (Family: Geminivirideae; Genus: Begomovirus) CMD has been widely described throughout Africa and it is apparent that CMG's are expanding their geographical distribution. Determining where and when CMG movements have occurred could help curtail its spread and reveal the ecological and anthropic factors associated with similar viral invasions. We applied Bayesian phylogeographic inference and recombination analyses to available and newly described CMG sequences to reconstruct a plausible history of CMG diversification and migration between Africa and South West Indian Ocean (SWIO) islands. RESULTS: The isolation and analysis of 114 DNA-A and 41 DNA-B sequences demonstrated the presence of three CMG species circulating in the Comoros and Seychelles archipelagos (East African cassava mosaic virus, EACMV; East African cassava mosaic Kenya virus, EACMKV; and East African cassava mosaic Cameroon virus, EACMCV). Phylogeographic analyses suggest that CMG's presence on these SWIO islands is probably the result of at least four independent introduction events from mainland Africa occurring between 1988 and 2009. Amongst the islands of the Comoros archipelago, two major migration pathways were inferred: One from Grande Comore to Mohéli and the second from Mayotte to Anjouan. While only two recombination events characteristic of SWIO islands isolates were identified, numerous re-assortments events were detected between EACMV and EACMKV, which seem to almost freely interchange their genome components. CONCLUSIONS: Rapid and extensive virus spread within the SWIO islands was demonstrated for three CMG complex species. Strong evolutionary or ecological interaction between CMG species may explain both their propensity to exchange components and the absence of recombination with non-CMG begomoviruses. Our results suggest an important role of anthropic factors in CMGs spread as the principal axes of viral migration correspond with major routes of human movement and commercial trade. Finer-scale temporal analyses of CMGs to precisely scale the relative contributions of human and insect transmission to their movement dynamics will require further extensive sampling in the SWIO region.

Reconstructing the history of maize streak virus strain a dispersal to reveal diversification hot spots and its origin in southern Africa.

Maize streak virus strain A (MSV-A), the causal agent of maize streak disease, is today one of the most serious biotic threats to African food security. Determining where MSV-A originated and how it spread transcontinentally could yield valuable insights into its historical emergence as a crop pathogen. Similarly, determining where the major extant MSV-A lineages arose could identify geographical hot spots of MSV evolution. Here, we use model-based phylogeographic analyses of 353 fully sequenced MSV-A isolates to reconstruct a plausible history of MSV-A movements over the past 150 years. We show that since the probable emergence of MSV-A in southern Africa around 1863, the virus spread transcontinentally at an average rate of 32.5 km/year (95% highest probability density interval, 15.6 to 51.6 km/year). Using distinctive patterns of nucleotide variation caused by 20 unique intra-MSV-A recombination events, we tentatively classified the MSV-A isolates into 24 easily discernible lineages. Despite many of these lineages displaying distinct geographical distributions, it is apparent that almost all have emerged within the past 4 decades from either southern or east-central Africa. Collectively, our results suggest that regular analysis of MSV-A genomes within these diversification hot spots could be used to monitor the emergence of future MSV-A lineages that could affect maize cultivation in Africa.

The emergence and ongoing convergent evolution of the N501Y lineages coincides with a major global shift in the SARS-CoV-2 selective landscape.

The emergence and rapid rise in prevalence of three independent SARS-CoV-2 "501Y lineages", B.1.1.7, B.1.351 and P.1, in the last three months of 2020 prompted renewed concerns about the evolutionary capacity of SARS-CoV-2 to adapt to both rising population immunity, and public health interventions such as vaccines and social distancing. Viruses giving rise to the different 501Y lineages have, presumably under intense natural selection following a shift in host environment, independently acquired multiple unique and convergent mutations. As a consequence, all have gained epidemiological and immunological properties that will likely complicate the control of COVID-19. Here, by examining patterns of mutations that arose in SARSCoV-2 genomes during the pandemic we find evidence of a major change in the selective forces acting on various SARS-CoV-2 genes and gene segments (such as S, nsp2 and nsp6), that likely coincided with the emergence of the 501Y lineages. In addition to involving continuing sequence diversification, we find evidence that a significant portion of the ongoing adaptive evolution of the 501Y lineages also involves further convergence between the lineages. Our findings highlight the importance of monitoring how members of these known 501Y lineages, and others still undiscovered, are convergently evolving similar strategies to ensure their persistence in the face of mounting infection and vaccine induced host immune recognition.

SARS-CoV-2 genomic characterization and clinical manifestation of the COVID-19 outbreak in Uruguay.

COVID-19 is a respiratory illness caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) and declared by the World Health Organization a global public health emergency. Among the severe outbreaks across South America, Uruguay has become known for curtailing SARS-CoV-2 exceptionally well. To understand the SARS-CoV-2 introductions, local transmissions, and associations with genomic and clinical parameters in Uruguay, we sequenced the viral genomes of 44 outpatients and inpatients in a private healthcare system in its capital, Montevideo, from March to May 2020. We performed a phylogeographic analysis using sequences from our cohort and other studies that indicate a minimum of 23 independent introductions into Uruguay, resulting in five major transmission clusters. Our data suggest that most introductions resulting in chains of transmission originate from other South American countries, with the earliest seeding of the virus in late February 2020, weeks before the borders were closed to all non-citizens and a partial lockdown implemented. Genetic analyses suggest a dominance of S and G clades (G, GH, GR) that make up >90% of the viral strains in our study. In our cohort, lethal outcome of SARS-CoV-2 infection significantly correlated with arterial hypertension, kidney failure, and ICU admission (FDR < 0.01), but not with any mutation in a structural or non-structural protein, such as the spike D614G mutation. Our study contributes genetic, phylodynamic, and clinical correlation data about the exceptionally well-curbed SARS-CoV-2 outbreak in Uruguay, which furthers the understanding of disease patterns and regional aspects of the pandemic in Latin America.

SARS-CoV-2 genomic characterization and clinical manifestation of the COVID-19 outbreak in Uruguay.

COVID-19 is a respiratory illness caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) and declared by the World Health Organization a global public health emergency. Among the severe outbreaks across South America, Uruguay has become known for curtailing SARS-CoV-2 exceptionally well. To understand the SARS-CoV-2 introductions, local transmissions, and associations with genomic and clinical parameters in Uruguay, we sequenced the viral genomes of 44 outpatients and inpatients in a private healthcare system in its capital, Montevideo, from March to May 2020. We performed a phylogeographic analysis using sequences from our cohort and other studies that indicate a minimum of 23 independent introductions into Uruguay, resulting in five major transmission clusters. Our data suggest that most introductions resulting in chains of transmission originate from other South American countries, with the earliest seeding of the virus in late February 2020, weeks before the borders were closed to all non-citizens and a partial lockdown implemented. Genetic analyses suggest a dominance of S and G clades (G, GH, GR) that make up >90% of the viral strains in our study. In our cohort, lethal outcome of SARS-CoV-2 infection significantly correlated with arterial hypertension, kidney failure, and ICU admission (FDR < 0.01), but not with any mutation in a structural or non-structural protein, such as the spike D614G mutation. Our study contributes genetic, phylodynamic, and clinical correlation data about the exceptionally well-curbed SARS-CoV-2 outbreak in Uruguay, which furthers the understanding of disease patterns and regional aspects of the pandemic in Latin America.

Symptom evolution following the emergence of maize streak virus.

For pathogens infecting single host species evolutionary trade-offs have previously been demonstrated between pathogen-induced mortality rates and transmission rates. It remains unclear, however, how such trade-offs impact sub-lethal pathogen-inflicted damage, and whether these trade-offs even occur in broad host-range pathogens. Here, we examine changes over the past 110 years in symptoms induced in maize by the broad host-range pathogen, maize streak virus (MSV). Specifically, we use the quantified symptom intensities of cloned MSV isolates in differentially resistant maize genotypes to phylogenetically infer ancestral symptom intensities and check for phylogenetic signal associated with these symptom intensities. We show that whereas symptoms reflecting harm to the host have remained constant or decreased, there has been an increase in how extensively MSV colonizes the cells upon which transmission vectors feed. This demonstrates an evolutionary trade-off between amounts of pathogen-inflicted harm and how effectively viruses position themselves within plants to enable onward transmission.

Dating the origins of the maize-adapted strain of maize streak virus, MSV-A.

Maize streak virus (MSV), which causes maize streak disease (MSD), is one of the most serious biotic threats to African food security. Here, we use whole MSV genomes sampled over 30 years to estimate the dates of key evolutionary events in the 500 year association of MSV and maize. The substitution rates implied by our analyses agree closely with those estimated previously in controlled MSV evolution experiments, and we use them to infer the date when the maize-adapted strain, MSV-A, was generated by recombination between two grass-adapted MSV strains. Our results indicate that this recombination event occurred in the mid-1800 s, approximately 20 years before the first credible reports of MSD in South Africa and centuries after the introduction of maize to the continent in the early 1500 s. This suggests a causal link between MSV recombination and the emergence of MSV-A as a serious pathogen of maize.

Experimental evidence indicating that mastreviruses probably did not co-diverge with their hosts.

BACKGROUND: Despite the demonstration that geminiviruses, like many other single stranded DNA viruses, are evolving at rates similar to those of RNA viruses, a recent study has suggested that grass-infecting species in the genus Mastrevirus may have co-diverged with their hosts over millions of years. This "co-divergence hypothesis" requires that long-term mastrevirus substitution rates be at least 100,000-fold lower than their basal mutation rates and 10,000-fold lower than their observable short-term substitution rates. The credibility of this hypothesis, therefore, hinges on the testable claim that negative selection during mastrevirus evolution is so potent that it effectively purges 99.999% of all mutations that occur. RESULTS: We have conducted long-term evolution experiments lasting between 6 and 32 years, where we have determined substitution rates of between 2 and 3 x 10(-4) substitutions/site/year for the mastreviruses Maize streak virus (MSV) and Sugarcane streak Réunion virus (SSRV). We further show that mutation biases are similar for different geminivirus genera, suggesting that mutational processes that drive high basal mutation rates are conserved across the family. Rather than displaying signs of extremely severe negative selection as implied by the co-divergence hypothesis, our evolution experiments indicate that MSV and SSRV are predominantly evolving under neutral genetic drift. CONCLUSION: The absence of strong negative selection signals within our evolution experiments and the uniformly high geminivirus substitution rates that we and others have reported suggest that mastreviruses cannot have co-diverged with their hosts.

Immune Correlates of Disease Progression in Linked HIV-1 Infection.

Genetic and immunologic analyses of epidemiologically-linked HIV transmission enable insights into the impact of immune responses on clinical outcomes. Human vaccine trials and animal studies of HIV-1 infection have suggested immune correlates of protection; however, their role in natural infection in terms of protection from disease progression is mostly unknown. Four HIV-1+ Cameroonian individuals, three of them epidemiologically-linked in a polygamous heterosexual relationship and one incidence-matched case, were studied over 15 years for heterologous and cross-neutralizing antibody responses, antibody binding, IgA/IgG levels, antibody-dependent cellular cytotoxicity (ADCC) against cells expressing wild-type or CD4-bound Env, viral evolution, Env epitopes, and host factors including HLA-I alleles. Despite viral infection with related strains, the members of the transmission cluster experienced contrasting clinical outcomes including cases of rapid progression and long-term non-progression in the absence of strongly protective HLA-I or CCR5Δ32 alleles. Slower progression and higher CD4/CD8 ratios were associated with enhanced IgG antibody binding to native Env and stronger V1V2 antibody binding responses in the presence of viruses with residue K169 in V2. ADCC against cells expressing Env in the CD4-bound conformation in combination with low Env-specific IgA/IgG ratios correlated with better clinical outcome. This data set highlights for the first time that V1V2-directed antibody responses and ADCC against cells expressing open, CD4-exposed Env, in the presence of low plasma IgA/IgG ratios, can correlate with clinical outcome in natural infection. These parameters are comparable to the major correlates of protection, identified post-hoc in the RV144 vaccine trial; thus, they may also modulate the rate of clinical progression once infected. The findings illustrate the potential of immune correlate analysis in natural infection to guide vaccine development.