Primary and secondary care service use and costs associated with frailty in an ageing population: longitudinal analysis of an English primary care cohort of adults aged 50 and over, 2006-2017.

BACKGROUND: Frailty becomes more prevalent and healthcare needs increase with age. Information on the impact of frailty on population level use of health services and associated costs is needed to plan for ageing populations. AIM: To describe primary and secondary care service use and associated costs by electronic Frailty Index (eFI) category. DESIGN AND SETTING: Retrospective cohort using electronic health records. Participants aged ≥50 registered in primary care practices contributing to the Oxford Royal College of General Practitioners Research and Surveillance Centre, 2006-2017. METHODS: Primary and secondary care use (totals and means) were stratified by eFI category and age group. Standardised 2017 costs were used to calculate primary, secondary and overall costs. Generalised linear models explored associations between frailty, sociodemographic characteristics. Adjusted mean costs and cost ratios were produced. RESULTS: Individual mean annual use of primary and secondary care services increased with increasing frailty severity. Overall cohort care costs for were highest in mild frailty in all 12 years, followed by moderate and severe, although the proportion of the population with severe frailty can be expected to increase over time. After adjusting for sociodemographic factors, compared to the fit category, individual annual costs doubled in mild frailty, tripled in moderate and quadrupled in severe. CONCLUSIONS: Increasing levels of frailty are associated with an additional burden of individual service use. However, individuals with mild and moderate frailty contribute to higher overall costs. Earlier intervention may have the most potential to reduce service use and costs at population level.

CAR and CSTR Cardiac Computed Tomography (CT) Practice Guidelines: Part 2-Non-Coronary Imaging.

The cardiac computed tomography (CT) practice guidelines provide an updated review of the technological improvements since the publication of the first Canadian Association of Radiologists (CAR) cardiac CT practice guidelines in 2009. An overview of the current evidence supporting the use of cardiac CT in the most common clinical scenarios, standards of practice to optimize patient preparation and safety as well as image quality are described. Coronary CT angiography (CCTA) is the focus of Part I. In Part II, an overview of cardiac CT for non-coronary indications that include valvular and pericardial imaging, tumour and mass evaluation, pulmonary vein imaging, and imaging of congenital heart disease for diagnosis and treatment monitoring are discussed. The guidelines are intended to be relevant for community hospitals and large academic centres with established cardiac CT imaging programs.

CAR and CSTR Cardiac Computed Tomography (CT) Practice Guidelines: Part 1 Coronary CT Angiography (CCTA).

Imaging the heart is one of the most technically challenging applications of Computed Tomography (CT) due to the presence of cardiac motion limiting optimal visualization of small structures such as the coronary arteries. Electrocardiographic gating during CT data acquisition facilitates motion free imaging of the coronary arteries. Since publishing the first version of the Canadian Association of Radiologists (CAR) cardiac CT guidelines, many technological advances in CT hardware and software have emerged necessitating an update. The goal of these cardiac CT practice guidelines is to present an overview of the current evidence supporting the use of cardiac CT in various clinical scenarios and to outline standards of practice for patient safety and quality of care when establishing a cardiac CT program in Canada.

Frailty transitions and prevalence in an ageing population: longitudinal analysis of primary care data from an open cohort of adults aged 50 and over in England, 2006-2017.

INTRODUCTION: frailty is common in older adults and is associated with increased health and social care use. Longitudinal information is needed on population-level incidence, prevalence and frailty progression to plan services to meet future population needs. METHODS: retrospective open cohort study using electronic health records of adults aged ≥50 from primary care in England, 2006-2017. Frailty was calculated annually using the electronic Frailty Index (eFI). Multistate models estimated transition rates between each frailty category, adjusting for sociodemographic characteristics. Prevalence overall for each eFI category (fit, mild, moderate and severe) was calculated. RESULTS: the cohort included 2,171,497 patients and 15,514,734 person-years. Frailty prevalence increased from 26.5 (2006) to 38.9% (2017). The average age of frailty onset was 69; however, 10.8% of people aged 50-64 were already frail in 2006. Estimated transitions from fit to any level of frailty were 48/1,000 person-years aged 50-64, 130/1,000 person-years aged 65-74, 214/1,000 person-years aged 75-84 and 380/1,000 person-years aged ≥ 85. Transitions were independently associated with older age, higher deprivation, female sex, Asian ethnicity and urban dwelling. Mean time spent in each frailty category decreased with age, with the longest period spent in severe frailty at all ages. CONCLUSIONS: frailty is prevalent in adults aged ≥50 and time spent in successive frailty states is longer as frailty progresses, resulting in extended healthcare burden. Larger population numbers and fewer transitions in adults aged 50-64 present an opportunity for earlier identification and intervention. A large increase in frailty over 12 years highlights the urgency of informed service planning in ageing populations.

Canadian Association of Radiologists/Canadian Association for Interventional Radiology/Canadian Society of Thoracic Radiology Guidelines on Thoracic Interventions.

Thoracic interventions are frequently performed by radiologists, but guidelines on appropriateness criteria and technical considerations to ensure patient safety regarding such interventions is lacking. These guidelines, developed by the Canadian Association of Radiologists, Canadian Association for Interventional Radiology and Canadian Society of Thoracic Radiology focus on the interventions commonly performed by thoracic radiologists. They provide evidence-based recommendations and expert consensus informed best practices for patient preparation; biopsies of the lung, mediastinum, pleura and chest wall; thoracentesis; pre-operative lung nodule localization; and potential complications and their management.

Comparative accuracy and cost-effectiveness of dynamic contrast-enhanced CT and positron emission tomography in the characterisation of solitary pulmonary nodules.

INTRODUCTION: Dynamic contrast-enhanced CT (DCE-CT) and positron emission tomography/CT (PET/CT) have a high reported accuracy for the diagnosis of malignancy in solitary pulmonary nodules (SPNs). The aim of this study was to compare the accuracy and cost-effectiveness of these. METHODS: In this prospective multicentre trial, 380 participants with an SPN (8-30 mm) and no recent history of malignancy underwent DCE-CT and PET/CT. All patients underwent either biopsy with histological diagnosis or completed CT follow-up. Primary outcome measures were sensitivity, specificity and overall diagnostic accuracy for PET/CT and DCE-CT. Costs and cost-effectiveness were estimated from a healthcare provider perspective using a decision-model. RESULTS: 312 participants (47% female, 68.1±9.0 years) completed the study, with 61% rate of malignancy at 2 years. The sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and negative predictive values for DCE-CT were 95.3% (95% CI 91.3 to 97.5), 29.8% (95% CI 22.3 to 38.4), 68.2% (95% CI 62.4% to 73.5%) and 80.0% (95% CI 66.2 to 89.1), respectively, and for PET/CT were 79.1% (95% CI 72.7 to 84.2), 81.8% (95% CI 74.0 to 87.7), 87.3% (95% CI 81.5 to 91.5) and 71.2% (95% CI 63.2 to 78.1). The area under the receiver operator characteristic curve (AUROC) for DCE-CT and PET/CT was 0.62 (95% CI 0.58 to 0.67) and 0.80 (95% CI 0.76 to 0.85), respectively (p<0.001). Combined results significantly increased diagnostic accuracy over PET/CT alone (AUROC=0.90 (95% CI 0.86 to 0.93), p<0.001). DCE-CT was preferred when the willingness to pay per incremental cost per correctly treated malignancy was below £9000. Above £15 500 a combined approach was preferred. CONCLUSIONS: PET/CT has a superior diagnostic accuracy to DCE-CT for the diagnosis of SPNs. Combining both techniques improves the diagnostic accuracy over either test alone and could be cost-effective. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: NCT02013063.

Incubator type affects human blastocyst formation and embryo metabolism: a randomized controlled trial.

STUDY QUESTION: Does the type of incubator used to culture human preimplantation embryos affect development to the blastocyst stage and alter amino acid utilization of embryos in assisted reproduction? SUMMARY ANSWER: Culturing embryos in a time lapse system (TLS) was associated with a higher Day 5 blastocyst formation rate and altered amino acid utilization when measured from Day 3 to Day 5 compared to the standard benchtop incubator. WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY: Culture environment is known to be important for the developing preimplantation embryo. TLSs provide a stable milieu allowing embryos to be monitored in situ, whereas embryos cultured in standard benchtop incubators experience environmental fluctuations when removed for morphological assessment. STUDY DESIGN, SIZE, DURATION: A prospective clinical trial randomizing 585 sibling embryos to either the TLS (289 embryos) or the standard benchtop incubator (296 embryos) over a 23-month period in a UK University Hospital Fertility Clinic. PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS, SETTING, METHODS: Participants were aged 42 years or under, had an antral follicle count of ≥12 and ≥6 2 pronucleate zygotes. Zygotes were cultured individually in 25 µl of medium. Randomized embryos were graded and selected for transfer or cryopreservation on Day 5. For those embryos produced by women who underwent stimulation with recombinant FSH injections and were triggered with hCG, spent medium was collected on Day 5 for amino acid analysis by high pressure liquid chromatography. Clinical pregnancy was defined as the presence of a foetal heart beat on ultrasound scan at 7 weeks. MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE: Overall, blastocyst formation rate on Day 5 was significantly higher in embryos cultured in the TLS (55%) compared to the standard incubator (45%; P = 0.013). Similarly, there was an increase in the number of blastocysts suitable for cryopreservation in the TLS (31%) compared to the standard incubator (23%; P = 0.032). There was a significant difference in the utilization of 12 amino acids by blastocysts cultured from Day 3 to Day 5 in the TLS compared to the standard incubator. Embryos cultured in the TLS displayed an increased total amino acid utilization (P < 0.001) and reduced amino acid production (P < 0.001) compared to those in the standard incubator. Irrespective of incubator used, embryos fertilized by ICSI depleted significantly more amino acids from the medium compared to those fertilized by conventional IVF. There was no difference in the mean score of blastocysts transferred, or the clinical pregnancy rate after transfer of embryos from either of the incubators. LIMITATIONS, REASONS FOR CAUTION: The study was not powered to discern significant effects on clinical outcomes. WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS: The metabolism and development of preimplantation embryos is impacted by the type of incubator used for culture. Further research is required to investigate the long-term implications of these findings. STUDY FUNDING/COMPETING INTEREST(S): NIHR Southampton Biomedical Research Centre Commercial and Enterprise Incubator Fund funded this study. The TLS was provided on loan for the study by Vitrolife. The authors declare no conflict of interests. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: ISRCTN73037149. TRIAL REGISTRATION DATE: 12 January 2012. DATE OF FIRST PATIENT'S ENROLMENT: 21 January 2012.

Real world use of oral treatments in interstitial cystitis/bladder pain syndrome in the UK: Outcome of a cross sectional study.

BACKGROUND: To describe the oral treatments people living with interstitial cystitis/bladder pain syndrome (IC/BPS) are using to treat their urologic condition in the UK. METHOD: A questionnaire hyperlink encompassing current and previous medications taken for IC/BPS with other sociodemographic and diagnostic indices was available to the Bladder Health UK website. Interested and fully consented individuals accessed and completed the survey. RESULTS: A total of 601 accessed the questionnaire of whom 173 participants responded (response rate: 28.7%) with a mean ± SD O'Leary/Sant scores of 20.12 ± 9.38. A sample size of 171 was estimated to be used in the survey. A fifth of the participants were not on any treatment at all. Amitriptyline was the most prevalent medication in use both alone and in combination. A shift in the use of unapproved (for IC/BPS) antidepressant, smooth muscle relaxant, opioids, gabapentenoids, and antibiotics was observed in the sample. There were no significant differences between the mean (SD) O'Leary/Sant scores of cohorts currently taking oral medications and those not taking it. More than two-thirds of the participants had been diagnosed with the disease more than 5 years. Just under a half (47.4%) of participants reported a history of allergy. CONCLUSION: Our study provides contemporary evidence that the treatments used for managing IC/BPS encompass a broad range of medications both recommended and not recommended by current guidelines. The latter suggests patients are willing to try novel treatments when more conventional ones are ineffective.

The dynamics of frailty development and progression in older adults in primary care in England (2006-2017): a retrospective cohort profile.

BACKGROUND: Frailty is a common condition in older adults and has a major impact on patient outcomes and service use. Information on the prevalence in middle-aged adults and the patterns of progression of frailty at an individual and population level is scarce. To address this, a cohort was defined from a large primary care database in England to describe the epidemiology of frailty and understand the dynamics of frailty within individuals and across the population. This article describes the structure of the dataset, cohort characteristics and planned analyses. METHODS: Retrospective cohort study using electronic health records. Participants were aged ≥50 years registered in practices contributing to the Oxford Royal College of General Practitioners Research and Surveillance Centre between 2006 to 2017. Data include GP practice details, patient sociodemographic and clinical characteristics, twice-yearly electronic Frailty Index (eFI), deaths, medication use and primary and secondary care health service use. Participants in each cohort year by age group, GP and patient characteristics at cohort entry are described. RESULTS: The cohort includes 2,177,656 patients, contributing 15,552,946 person-years, registered at 419 primary care practices in England. The mean age was 61 years, 52.1% of the cohort was female, and 77.6% lived in urban environments. Frailty increased with age, affecting 10% of adults aged 50-64 and 43.7% of adults aged ≥65. The prevalence of long-term conditions and specific frailty deficits increased with age, as did the eFI and the severity of frailty categories. CONCLUSION: A comprehensive understanding of frailty dynamics will inform predictions of current and future care needs to facilitate timely planning of appropriate interventions, service configurations and workforce requirements. Analysis of this large, nationally representative cohort including participants aged ≥50 will capture earlier transitions to frailty and enable a detailed understanding of progression and impact. These results will inform novel simulation models which predict future health and service needs of older people living with frailty. STUDY REGISTRATION: Registered on www.clinicaltrials.gov October 25th 2019, NCT04139278 .

The role of expert focus echocardiography during the COVID-19 pandemic.

BACKGROUND: Focus Echocardiography has routinely been used to offer quick diagnosis in critical care environments, predominantly by clinicians with limited training. During the COVID-19 pandemic, international guidance recommended all echocardiography scans were performed as focus studies to limit operator viral exposure in both inpatient and outpatient settings. The aim of this study was to assess the effectiveness of eFoCUS, a focus scan performed by fully trained echocardiographers following a minimum dataset plus full interrogation of any pathology found. METHODS: All diagnostic echocardiograms, performed by fully trained echocardiographers during an 8-week period during the first UK COVID-19 wave, were included. The number of images acquired was compared in the following categories: admission status, COVID status, image quality, indication, invasive ventilation, pathology found, echocardiographer experience, and whether eFoCUS was deemed adequate to answer the clinical question. RESULTS: In 87.4% of the 698 scans included, the operator considered that the eFOCUS echo protocol, with additional images when needed, was sufficient to answer the clinical question on the request. Echocardiographer experience did not affect the number of images acquired. Less images were acquired in COVID-19 positive patients compared to negative/asymptomatic (38 ± 12 vs. 42 ± 12, p = .001), and more images were required when a valve pathology was identified. CONCLUSION: eFoCUS echocardiography is an effective protocol for use during the COVID-19 pandemic. It provides sufficient diagnostic information to answer the clinical question but differs from standard focus/limited protocols by enabling the identification and interrogation of significant pathology and incidental findings, preventing unnecessary repeat scans and viral exposure of operators.

Efficacy of Risk Prediction Models and Thresholds to Select Patients for Lung Cancer Screening.

PurposeScreening for lung cancer is recommended to reduce lung cancer mortality, but there is no consensus on patient selection for screening in Canada. Risk prediction models are more efficacious than the screening recommendations of the Canadian Task Force on Preventive Health Care (CTFPHC), but it remains to be determined which model and threshold are optimal. MethodsWe retrospectively applied the PLCOm2012, PLCOall2014 and LLPv2 risk prediction models to 120 lung cancer patients from a Canadian province, at risk thresholds of ≥ 1.51% and ≥ 2.00%, to determine screening eligibility at time of diagnosis. OncoSim modelling was used to compare these risk thresholds. ResultsSensitivities of the risk prediction models at a threshold of ≥ 1.51% were similar with 93 (77.5%), 96 (80.0%), and 97 (80.8%) patients selected for screening, respectively. The PLCOm2012 and PLCOall2014 models selected significantly more patients for screening at a ≥ 1.51% threshold. The OncoSim simulation model estimated that the ≥ 1.51% threshold would detect 4 more cancers per 100 000 people than the ≥ 2.00% threshold. All risk prediction models, at both thresholds, achieved greater sensitivity than CTFPHC recommendations, which selected 56 (46.7%) patients for screening. ConclusionCommonly considered lung cancer screening risk thresholds (≥1.51% and ≥2.00%) are more sensitive than the CTFPHC 30-pack-years criterion to detect lung cancer. A lower risk threshold would achieve a larger population impact of lung cancer screening but would require more resources. Patients with limited or no smoking history, young patients, and patients with no history of COPD may be missed regardless of the model chosen.

Reconciling biodiversity with timber production and revenue via an intensive forest management experiment.

Understanding how land-management intensification shapes the relationships between biodiversity, yield, and economic benefit is critical for managing natural resources. Yet, manipulative experiments that test how herbicides affect these relationships are scarce, particularly in forest ecosystems where considerable time lags exist between harvest revenue and initial investments. We assessed these relationships by combining 7 yr of biodiversity surveys (>800 taxa) and forecasts of timber yield and economic return from a replicated, large-scale experiment that manipulated herbicide application intensity in operational timber plantations. Herbicides reduced species richness across trophic groups (-18%), but responses by higher-level trophic groups were more variable (0-38% reduction) than plant responses (-40%). Financial discounting, a conventional economic method to standardize past and future cash flows, strongly modified biodiversity-revenue relationships caused by management intensity. Despite a projected 28% timber yield gain with herbicides, biodiversity-revenue trade-offs were muted when opportunity costs were high (i.e., economic discount rates ≥7%). Although herbicides can drive biodiversity-yield trade-offs, under certain conditions, financial discounting provides opportunities to reconcile biodiversity conservation with revenue.

The relationship between illness perception and worsening of interstitial cystitis/painful bladder syndrome symptoms: A cross-sectional study.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate disease perception in a cohort of patients with interstitial cystitis/painful bladder syndrome (IC/PBS) using the Brief Illness Perception-Questionnaire (BIP-Q) and to evaluate how this might relate to disease severity. MATERIALS AND METHODS: The study is a cross-sectional survey amongst members of Bladder Health UK who had previously received a clinical diagnosis of IC/PBS. A hyperlink containing the questionnaire was sent to the patient group's website and interested members accessed and completed the survey. Participants' inclusion was based on a prior clinical diagnosis of IC/PBS, current O'Leary Sant scores supportive of the diagnosis, and age between 18 and 80. A sample size of 171 was used in the study. The Brief Illness Perception Questionnaire (BIP-Q) and the O'Leary/Sant symptoms and problem indices questionnaire were used to collect data. A multivariable logistic regression analysis was used to test the relationship between items of BIP-Q and severity of IC/PBS. Content analysis was used for the causal domain and subsequently analysed as percentages. RESULTS: Six hundred and one members accessed the questionnaire of whom 159 returned completed questionnaires. One hundred and twenty-two of 159 (≥75%) respondents believe that their illness will continue indefinitely. The majority of the respondents indicated that IC/PBS had a negative impact on their daily lives, caused them worry and made them emotionally unstable. Of the 8 BIP-Q items, those most predictive of disease severity were (adjusted odd ratio and confidence intervals): consequence 0.094 (0.023-0.386); treatment control 2.702 (1.256-5.812); identity 0.141 (0.033-0.600); concern 9.363 (1.521-57.632). CONCLUSIONS: Our findings show that IC/PBS negatively impacts participant's quality of life and emotional wellbeing. Higher expectation for treatment benefit and increasing levels of patient concern are predictive for severity of IC/PBS.

Sequential assessment of bowel function and anorectal physiology after anterior resection for cancer: a prospective cohort study.

AIM: The aim of this study was to investigate changes in bowel function and anorectal physiology (ARP) after anterior resection for colorectal cancer. METHOD: Patients were recruited from November 2006 to September 2008. Cleveland Clinic Incontinence (CCI) scores and stool frequency were determined by patient questionnaires before surgery (t0 ) and at three (t3 ), six (t6 ), nine (t9 ) and 12 (t12 ) months after restoration of intestinal continuity. ARP measurements were recorded at T0 , T3 and T12 . Endoanal ultrasound was performed at T0 and T12 . RESULTS: Eighty-nine patients were included. CCI score increased postoperatively then normalized, whereas stool frequency did not change. Patients who had neoadjuvant radiotherapy or a lower anastomosis had increased incontinence and stool frequency in the postoperative period, whereas those with defunctioning stomas or open surgery had increased stool frequency alone. Maximum resting pressure, volume at first urge and maximum rectal tolerance were reduced throughout the postoperative period. Radiotherapy, lower anastomosis and defunctioning stoma (but not operative approach) altered manometric parameters postoperatively. Maximum rectal tolerance correlated with incontinence and first urge with stool frequency. The length of the anterior internal anal sphincter decreased postoperatively. CONCLUSIONS: Incontinence recovers in the first year after anterior resection. Radiotherapy, lower anastomosis, defunctioning stoma and open surgery have a negative influence on bowel function. ARP may be useful if bowel dysfunction persists beyond 12 months.

Canadian Society of Thoracic Radiology/Canadian Association of Radiologists Clinical Practice Guidance for Non-Vascular Thoracic MRI.

Historically thoracic MRI has been limited by the lower proton density of lung parenchyma, cardiac and respiratory motion artifacts and long acquisition times. Recent technological advancements in MR hardware systems and improvement in MR pulse sequences have helped overcome these limitations and expand clinical opportunities for non-vascular thoracic MRI. Non-vascular thoracic MRI has been established as a problem-solving imaging modality for characterization of thymic, mediastinal, pleural chest wall and superior sulcus tumors and for detection of endometriosis. It is increasingly recognized as a powerful imaging tool for detection and characterization of lung nodules and for assessment of lung cancer staging. The lack of ionizing radiation makes thoracic MRI an invaluable imaging modality for young patients, pregnancy and for frequent serial follow-up imaging. Lack of familiarity and exposure to non-vascular thoracic MRI and lack of consistency in existing MRI protocols have called for clinical practice guidance. The purpose of this guide, which was developed by the Canadian Society of Thoracic Radiology and endorsed by the Canadian Association of Radiologists, is to familiarize radiologists, other interested clinicians and MR technologists with common and less common clinical indications for non-vascular thoracic MRI, discuss the fundamental imaging findings and focus on basic and more advanced MRI sequences tailored to specific clinical questions.

Regulation of spine structural plasticity by Arc/Arg3.1.

Dendritic spines are actin-rich, postsynaptic protrusions that contact presynaptic terminals to form excitatory chemical synapses. These synaptic contacts are widely believed to be the sites of memory formation and information storage, and changes in spine shape are thought to underlie several forms of learning-related plasticity. Both membrane trafficking pathways and the actin cytoskeleton drive activity-dependent structural and functional changes in dendritic spines. A key molecular player in regulating these processes is the activity-regulated cytoskeleton-associated protein (Arc), a protein that has diverse roles in expression of synaptic plasticity. In this review, we highlight important findings that have shaped our understanding of Arc's functions in structural and functional plasticity, as well as Arc's contributions to memory consolidation and disease.

Peripheral immunophenotype in dementia with Lewy bodies and Alzheimer's disease: an observational clinical study.

BACKGROUND: Inflammation plays a key role in the aetiology and progression of Alzheimer's disease (AD). However, the immunophenotype of the second most common neurodegenerative cause of dementia, dementia with Lewy bodies (DLB), remains unclear. To date there have been no studies examining peripheral inflammation in DLB using multiplex immunoassay and flow cytometry concomitantly. We hypothesised that, using blood biomarkers, DLB would show an increased proinflammatory profile compared with controls, and that there would be a distinct profile compared with AD. METHODS: 93 participants (31 with DLB, 31 with AD and 31 healthy older controls) completed a single study visit for neuropsychiatric testing and phlebotomy. Peripheral blood mononuclear cells were quantified for T and B cell subsets using flow cytometry, and serum cytokine concentrations were measured using multiplex immunoassay. RESULTS: We detected reduced relative numbers of helper T cells and reduced activation of B cells in DLB compared with AD. Additionally, interleukin (IL)-1ß was detected more frequently in DLB and the serum concentration of IL-6 was increased compared with controls. CONCLUSIONS: Peripheral inflammation is altered in DLB compared with AD, with T cell subset analysis supporting a possible shift towards senescence of the adaptive immune system in DLB. Furthermore, there is a proinflammatory signature of serum cytokines in DLB. Identification of this unique peripheral immunophenotype in DLB could guide development of an immune-based biomarker and direct future work exploring potential immune modulation as a novel treatment.

The Enhanced Liver Fibrosis test is associated with liver-related outcomes in postmenopausal women with risk factors for liver disease.

BACKGROUND: Chronic liver disease (CLD) is usually asymptomatic but earlier detection is critical to permit life-saving interventions for those at risk due to high alcohol consumption and increased body mass index (BMI). The aim of this study was to estimate the association between the Enhanced Liver Fibrosis (ELF) test and liver-related events (LRE) and its performance in predicting LRE in postmenopausal women with risk factors in a nested case-control study within the United Kingdom Trial of Ovarian Cancer Screening (UKCTOCS). METHODS: In a cohort of 95,126 we performed a case-control study measuring ELF in blinded samples from 173 participants with self-reported high alcohol use and / or BMI ≥25 kg/m2 comprising all 58 cases who developed LRE and 115 controls matched for age, alcohol and BMI who did not develop LRE during median follow-up of 8.5 years. RESULTS: Using Cox regression at an ELF threshold of 10.51 hazard ratios (HR) for LRE were 4.88 (95% confidence interval (CI) 2.37-10.03) (unadjusted model) and 4.62 (95% CI 2.12-10.08) (adjusted for deprivation and self-reported hypertension, heart disease, hypercholesterolaemia and diabetes). At a threshold of 9.8 HR for LRE were 2.21 (95% CI 1.22-3.97) (unadjusted model) and 2.18 (95% CI 1.19-4.01) (adjusted). ELF was evaluated as a time dependent variable by generating time-dependent Cox models; HRs at an ELF threshold of 10.51 were 1.94 (95% CI 1.10-3.39) (unadjusted) and 2.05 (95% CI 1.16-3.64) (adjusted) and at a threshold of 9.8 HRs were 1.85 (95% CI 1.09-3.15) (unadjusted) and 1.80 (95% CI 1.04-3.13) (adjusted). Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for recruitment ELF predicting LRE was 0.58 (95% CI 0.49-0.68), and for second subsequent ELF 0.61 (95% CI 0.52-0.71). CONCLUSION: This study demonstrates the association between ELF and CLD in postmenopausal women with risk factors for liver disease, creating the opportunity to intervene to reduce liver-related mortality and morbidity. Although larger studies are required, these results demonstrate the potential of ELF as a prognostic tool in health checks in primary care. TRIAL REGISTRATION: This study is nested in UKCTOCS. UKCTOCS is registered as an International Standard Randomised Controlled Trial, number ISRCTN22488978. Registered 06/04/2000.

Persistent neuropathological effects 14 years following amyloid-ß immunization in Alzheimer's disease.

We performed a 15-year post-mortem neuropathological follow-up of patients in the first trial of amyloid-ß immunotherapy for Alzheimer's disease. Twenty-two participants of a clinical trial of active amyloid-ß42 immunization (AN1792, Elan Pharmaceuticals) or placebo were studied. Comprehensive post-mortem neuropathological assessments were performed from 4 months to 15 years after the trial. We analysed the relationships between the topographical distribution of amyloid-ß removal from the cerebral cortex and tau pathology, cerebrovascular territories, plasma anti-AN1792 antibody titres and late cognitive status. Seventeen of 22 (77%) participants had Alzheimer's neuropathological change, whereas 5 of 22 (23%) had alternative causes for dementia (progressive supranuclear palsy = 1, Lewy body disease = 1, vascular brain injury = 1, and frontotemporal lobar degeneration = 2). Nineteen of the 22 participants had received the active agent, three the placebo. Fourteen of 16 (88%) patients with Alzheimer's disease receiving the active agent had evidence of plaque removal (very extensive removal = 5, intermediate = 4, very limited = 5, no removal = 2). Of particular note, two Alzheimer's patients who died 14 years after immunization had only very sparse or no detectable plaques in all regions examined. There was a significant inverse correlation between post-vaccination peripheral blood anti-AN1792 antibody titres and post-mortem plaque scores (ρ = - 0.664, P = 0.005). Cortical foci cleared of plaques contained less tau than did cortex with remaining plaques, but the overall distribution of tangles was extensive (Braak V/VI). In conclusion, patients with Alzheimer's disease actively immunized against amyloid-ß can remain virtually plaque-free for 14 years. The extent of plaque removal is related to the immune response. This long duration of efficacy is important in support of active immunization protocols as therapy for, or potentially prevention of, neurodegeneration-associated protein accumulations. Inclusion of patients without Alzheimer's disease in Alzheimer's therapy trials is a problem for assessing the efficacy of treatment. Despite modification of Alzheimer's pathology, most patients had progressed to severe dementia, notably including the five with very extensive plaque removal, possibly due to continued tau propagation. Neuropathology follow-up of patients in therapeutic trials provides valuable information on the causes of dementia and effects of treatment.

Predictors of children's health system use: cross-sectional study of linked data.

BACKGROUND: Use of health services is increasing in many countries. Most health service research exploring determinants of use has focused on adults and on secondary care. Less is known about factors associated with the use of the emergency department (ED) and general practice (GP) among young children. OBJECTIVE: To explore factors associated with GP consultations and ED attendances among children under 5 in a single UK city. METHODS: Cross-sectional exploratory study using anonymized individual-level health service use data for children aged 0-4 from 21 GPs in Southampton, UK, linked to ED data, over a 1-year period. Univariate and multivariable logistic regression were used to explore the association of socio-demographic factors [using the 2015 Index of Multiple Deprivation (IMD) to define socio-economic status] with high service use (defined as more than eight GP consultations and/or two ED attendances respectively). RESULTS: Among 11 062 children, there were 76 092 GP consultations and 6107 ED attendances. Three thousand two hundred thirty-three (29%) children were high users of GP and 564 (5%) of ED services. Greater socio-economic deprivation was independently associated with high use of GP and ED services separately [odds ratios (OR) for most versus least deprived IMD quintile 1.45 (95% confidence interval, CI 1.20-1.75) and 2.21 (95% CI 1.41-3.46), respectively], and together [OR 2.62 (95% CI 1.48-4.65)]. CONCLUSION: Young children are frequent users of health services, particularly GP. Socio-economic deprivation is an important factor. Parents, carers and health services may benefit from interventions that support families in their management of children's health.