Differential grandparental investment when maternal grandmothers are living versus deceased.

Grandparents can increase their inclusive fitness by investing time and resources in their grandchildren. However, not all grandparents make such investments equally, and between-grandparent differences in this regard can be predicted based on paternity uncertainty, lineage and grandparents' sex. Using population-based data for English and Welsh adolescents (n = 1430), we examined whether the death of the most important grandparent (in terms of investment), the maternal grandmother (MGM), changes relative support for existing hypotheses predicting differential grandparental-investment patterns. To contrast the predictions of the grandparental investment hypotheses, we used generalized order-restricted information criterion approximation. We consequently found that, when MGMs are alive, the most-supported hypothesis is 'discriminative grandparental solicitude', which ranks grandparental investment as MGMs > maternal grandfathers (MGFs) > paternal grandmothers (PGMs) > paternal grandfathers (PGFs). However, when MGMs are deceased, the paternity uncertainty hypothesis (MGFs = PGMs > PGFs) receives the most support; this is due to increased investment by PGMs. Thus, when the heaviest investors (i.e. MGMs) are deceased, PGM investments are closer to-but do not exceed-MGF investments.

Matrilateral bias of grandparental investment in grandchildren persists despite the grandchildren's adverse early life experiences.

Evolutionary theory predicts a downward flow of investment from older to younger generations, representing individual efforts to maximize inclusive fitness. Maternal grandparents and maternal grandmothers (MGMs) in particular consistently show the highest levels of investment (e.g. time, care and resources) in their grandchildren. Grandparental investment overall may depend on social and environmental conditions that affect the development of children and modify the benefits and costs of investment. Currently, the responses of grandparents to adverse early life experiences (AELEs) in their grandchildren are assessed from a perspective of increased investment to meet increased need. Here, we formulate an alternative prediction that AELEs may be associated with reduced grandparental investment, as they can reduce the reproductive value of the grandchildren. Moreover, we predicted that paternal grandparents react more strongly to AELEs compared to maternal grandparents because maternal kin should expend extra effort to invest in their descendants. Using population-based survey data for English and Welsh adolescents, we found evidence that the investment of maternal grandparents (MGMs in particular) in their grandchildren was unrelated to the grandchildren's AELEs, while paternal grandparents invested less in grandchildren who had experienced more AELEs. These findings seemed robust to measurement errors in AELEs and confounding due to omitted shared causes.

Identifying the paths of climate effects on population dynamics: dynamic and multilevel structural equation model around the annual cycle.

How environmental factors influence population dynamics in long-distance migrants is complicated by the spatiotemporal diversity of the environment the individuals experience during the annual cycle. The effects of weather on several different aspects of life history have been well studied, but a better understanding is needed on how weather affects population dynamics through the different associated traits. We utilise 77 years of data from pied flycatcher (Ficedula hypoleuca), to identify the most relevant climate signals associated with population growth rate. The strongest signals on population growth were observed from climate during periods when the birds were not present in the focal location. The population decline was associated with increasing precipitation in the African non-breeding quarters in the autumn (near the arrival of migrants) and with increasing winter temperature along the migration route (before migration). The number of fledglings was associated positively with increasing winter temperature in non-breeding area and negatively with increasing winter temperature in Europe. These possible carry-over effects did not arise via timing of breeding or clutch size but the exact mechanism remains to be revealed in future studies. High population density and low fledgling production were the intrinsic factors reducing the breeding population. We conclude that weather during all seasons has the potential to affect the reproductive success or population growth rate of this species. Our results show how weather can influence the population dynamics of a migratory species through multiple pathways, even at times of the annual cycle when the birds are in a different location than the climate signal.

Impact of continuous predator threat on telomere dynamics in parent and nestling pied flycatchers.

In addition to direct mortality, predators can have indirect effects on prey populations by affecting prey behaviour or physiology. For example, predator presence can increase stress hormone levels, which can have physiological costs. Stress exposure accelerates the shortening of telomeres (i.e. the protective caps of chromosomes) and shorter telomeres have been linked to increased mortality risk. However, the effect of perceived predation risk on telomeres is not known. We investigated the effects of continuous predator threat (nesting Eurasian pygmy owl Glaucidium passerinum) on telomere dynamics of both adult and partially cross-fostered nestling pied flycatchers (Ficedula hypoleuca) in the wild. Females nesting at owl-inhabited sites showed impaired telomere maintenance between incubation and chick rearing compared to controls, and both males and females ended up with shorter telomeres at owl-inhabited sites in the end of chick rearing. On the contrary, both original and cross-fostered chicks reared in owl sites had consistently longer telomeres during growth than chicks reared at control sites. Thus, predation risk may cause a long-term cost in terms of telomeres for parents but not for their offspring. Predators may therefore affect telomere dynamics of their preys, which could have implications for their ageing rate and consequently for population dynamics.

Human reproduction and health: an evolutionary perspective.

According to life history theory, increased investment in reproductive function (physiology and behaviour) at different times throughout the life course affects the risk of many diseases and, ultimately, longevity. Although genetic factors contribute to interindividual and interpopulation variation in reproductive traits, the dominant source of variability is phenotypic plasticity during development and adult life. Reproductive traits in both sexes evolved sensitivity to ecological conditions, as reflected in contemporary associations of hormone concentrations with geographical setting, nutritional status, and physical activity level. Lifetime exposure to increased concentrations of sex hormones is associated with the risk of some cancers, hence decreasing fertility patterns contribute to secular increases in their incidence. Conversely, increased investment in reproductive function might compromise somatic investment in health, such that faster sexual maturation and higher parity increases risk of diabetes and cardiovascular disease. An evolutionary perspective on reproductive biology could improve the efficacy of public health efforts to reduce the risk of hormone-sensitive cancers and other non-communicable diseases.

Accounting for measurement error in human life history trade-offs using structural equation modeling.

OBJECTIVES: Revealing causal effects from correlative data is very challenging and a contemporary problem in human life history research owing to the lack of experimental approach. Problems with causal inference arising from measurement error in independent variables, whether related either to inaccurate measurement technique or validity of measurements, seem not well-known in this field. The aim of this study is to show how structural equation modeling (SEM) with latent variables can be applied to account for measurement error in independent variables when the researcher has recorded several indicators of a hypothesized latent construct. METHODS: As a simple example of this approach, measurement error in lifetime allocation of resources to reproduction in Finnish preindustrial women is modelled in the context of the survival cost of reproduction. In humans, lifetime energetic resources allocated in reproduction are almost impossible to quantify with precision and, thus, typically used measures of lifetime reproductive effort (e.g., lifetime reproductive success and parity) are likely to be plagued by measurement error. These results are contrasted with those obtained from a traditional regression approach where the single best proxy of lifetime reproductive effort available in the data is used for inference. RESULTS: As expected, the inability to account for measurement error in women's lifetime reproductive effort resulted in the underestimation of its underlying effect size on post-reproductive survival. CONCLUSIONS: This article emphasizes the advantages that the SEM framework can provide in handling measurement error via multiple-indicator latent variables in human life history studies.

Selection bias in studies of human reproduction-longevity trade-offs.

A shorter lifespan as a potential cost of high reproductive effort in humans has intrigued researchers for more than a century. However, the results have been inconclusive so far and despite strong theoretical expectations we do not currently have compelling evidence for the longevity costs of reproduction. Using Monte Carlo simulation, it is shown here that a common practice in human reproduction-longevity studies using historical data (the most relevant data sources for this question), the omission of women who died prior to menopausal age from the analysis, results in severe underestimation of the potential underlying trade-off between reproduction and lifespan. In other words, assuming that such a trade-off is expressed also during reproductive years, the strength of the trade-off between reproduction and lifespan is progressively weakened when women dying during reproductive ages are sequentially and non-randomly excluded from the analysis. In cases of small sample sizes (e.g. few hundreds of observations), this selection bias by reducing statistical power may even partly explain the null results commonly found in this field. Future studies in this field should thus apply statistical approaches that account for or avoid selection bias in order to recover reliable effect size estimates between reproduction and longevity.

Culled males, infant mortality and reproductive success in a pre-industrial Finnish population.

Theoretical and empirical literature asserts that the sex ratio (i.e. M/F) at birth gauges the strength of selection in utero and cohort quality of males that survive to birth. We report the first individual-level test in humans, using detailed life-history data, of the 'culled cohort' hypothesis that males born to low annual sex ratio cohorts show lower than expected infant mortality and greater than expected lifetime reproductive success. We applied time-series and structural equation methods to a unique multigenerational dataset of a natural fertility population in nineteenth century Finland. We find that, consistent with culled cohorts, a 1 s.d. decline in the annual cohort sex ratio precedes an 8% decrease in the risk of male infant mortality. Males born to lower cohort sex ratios also successfully raised 4% more offspring to reproductive age than did males born to higher cohort sex ratios. The offspring result, however, falls just outside conventional levels of statistical significance. In historical Finland, the cohort sex ratio gauges selection against males in utero and predicts male infant mortality. The reproductive success findings, however, provide weak support for an evolutionarily adaptive explanation of male culling in utero.

Evolutionary demography of agricultural expansion in preindustrial northern Finland.

A shift from nomadic foraging to sedentary agriculture was a major turning point in human evolutionary history, increasing our population size and eventually leading to the development of modern societies. We however lack understanding of the changes in life histories that contributed to the increased population growth rate of agriculturalists, because comparable individual-based reproductive records of sympatric populations of agriculturalists and foragers are rarely found. Here, we compared key life-history traits and population growth rate using comprehensive data from the seventieth to nineteenth century Northern Finland: indigenous Sami were nomadic hunter-fishers and reindeer herders, whereas sympatric agricultural Finns relied predominantly on animal husbandry. We found that agriculture-based families had higher lifetime fecundity, faster birth spacing and lower maternal mortality. Furthermore, agricultural Finns had 6.2% higher annual population growth rate than traditional Sami, which was accounted by differences between the subsistence modes in age-specific fecundity but not in mortality. Our results provide, to our knowledge, the most detailed demonstration yet of the demographic changes and evolutionary benefits that resulted from agricultural revolution.

Sex of preceding sibling and anthropometrics of subsequent offspring at birth and in young adulthood: a population-based study in Sweden.

In many mammal species with sexual dimorphism producing sons is energetically more demanding to the mother than producing daughters. Although some studies in humans have suggested that offspring born after a brother have a smaller birth weight and adult height when compared with those born after a sister, little is known about this intergenerational cost of producing sons. We aimed to study whether the sex of preceding sibling is associated with anthropometrics of the subsequent child at birth and in young adulthood. This population-based study was carried out on two data sets derived from the Swedish registers. Information on birth weight and length was obtained for 752,723 children of both sexes. Adult weight, height and muscle strength were available for 506,326 men. Multiple linear regression analyses showed that boys and girls born after a brother were, respectively, 18 and 9 g lighter and 0.08 and 0.03 cm (P < 0.001) shorter at birth than those born after a sister. Adjustment for gestational age decreased the magnitude of the associations [10 g and 0.04 cm (P < 0.001) in men and nonsignificant estimates in women], suggesting that part of the lower mean birth weight and length of individuals born after a brother was due to a shorter gestation. In young adulthood, men with a preceding brother showed 0.16 kg more in weight, 0.3% higher body mass index (P < 0.001) and a trend towards reduced height and muscle strength. Our results suggest that even though the sex of the previous child is associated with the anthropometrics of the subsequent child, the effect sizes are very small questioning whether this mechanism has adaptive value in contemporary humans.

Investment by maternal grandmother buffers children against the impacts of adverse early life experiences.

Exogenous shocks during sensitive periods of development can have long-lasting effects on adult phenotypes including behavior, survival and reproduction. Cooperative breeding, such as grandparental care in humans and some other mammal species, is believed to have evolved partly in order to cope with challenging environments. Nevertheless, studies addressing whether grandparental investment can buffer the development of grandchildren from multiple adversities early in life are few and have provided mixed results, perhaps owing to difficulties drawing causal inferences from non-experimental data. Using population-based data of English and Welsh adolescents (sample size ranging from 817 to 1197), we examined whether grandparental investment reduces emotional and behavioral problems in children resulting from facing multiple adverse early life experiences (AELEs), by employing instrumental variable regression in a Bayesian structural equation modeling framework to better justify causal interpretations of the results. When children had faced multiple AELEs, the investment of maternal grandmothers reduced, but could not fully erase, their emotional and behavioral problems. No such result was observed in the case of the investment of other grandparent types. These findings indicate that in adverse environmental conditions the investment of maternal grandmothers can improve child wellbeing.

Habitat fragmentation and reproductive success: a structural equation modelling approach.

1. There is great interest on the effects of habitat fragmentation, whereby habitat is lost and the spatial configuration of remaining habitat patches is altered, on individual breeding performance. However, we still lack consensus of how this important process affects reproductive success, and whether its effects are mainly due to reduced fecundity or nestling survival. 2. The main reason for this may be the way that habitat fragmentation has been previously modelled. Studies have treated habitat loss and altered spatial configuration as two independent processes instead of as one hierarchical and interdependent process, and therefore have not been able to consider the relative direct and indirect effects of habitat loss and altered spatial configuration. 3. We investigated how habitat (i.e. old forest) fragmentation, caused by intense forest harvesting at the territory and landscape scales, is associated with the number of fledged offspring of an area-sensitive passerine, the Eurasian treecreeper (Certhia familiaris). We used structural equation modelling (SEM) to examine the complex hierarchical associations between habitat loss and altered spatial configuration on the number of fledged offspring, by controlling for individual condition and weather conditions during incubation. 4. Against generally held expectations, treecreeper reproductive success did not show a significant association with habitat fragmentation measured at the territory scale. Instead, our analyses suggested that an increasing amount of habitat at the landscape scale caused a significant increase in nest predation rates, leading to reduced reproductive success. This effect operated directly on nest predation rates, instead of acting indirectly through altered spatial configuration. 5. Because habitat amount and configuration are inherently strongly collinear, particularly when multiple scales are considered, our study demonstrates the usefulness of a SEM approach for hierarchical partitioning of habitat amount vs. habitat configuration in landscape ecology that may have bearing on biological conclusions.

A trade-off between having many sons and shorter maternal post-reproductive survival in pre-industrial Finland.

A bias in reproduction towards sons, which are energetically more costly than daughters, has been suggested to shorten parental lifespan, but previous results have been mixed. Reproductive costs should be most evident in low rather than high resource settings, and are not expected to be severe in men, because women pay higher direct costs of reproduction. We, therefore, used demographic data from pre-industrial Finland to investigate whether the number of sons and daughters born affected their parents' post-reproductive survival and whether this was related to parent's resource availability. Irrespective of access to resources, mothers, but not fathers, with many sons suffered from reduced post-reproductive survival, and this association decreased as mothers aged. Our results provide evidence that Finnish mothers traded long post-reproductive lifespan for giving birth to many sons.

Height, age at first birth, and lifetime reproductive success: a prospective cohort study of Finnish male and female twins.

The associations between height and reproductive success in humans have attracted long-time scientific interest, but in addition to rather mixed previous results, little is still known about the background mechanisms of these associations. We analyzed the association of adult height with age at first birth and lifetime reproductive success using a twin study design that is able to optimally take into account family background and estimate the contributions of genetic and environmental factors. Information on live births as of June 2009 for 7,830 Finnish twins born 1950-1957 was extracted from the national population register. We found evidence for non-linear associations in men, as men in the third sex-specific height quintile had the highest probability of having one to two children, or three or more children at individual level analyses, and also to have any children when analyzing twin pairs discordant for height. Furthermore, the probability of having a spouse was highest in the third height category in men. Short stature was associated with earlier age at first birth in females, explained by correlated genetic factors, but not with lifetime number of children or having a spouse. Our results suggest that average stature may give some advantage for reproduction in males. In females, genetic factors explained the association between short stature and young age at first birth, which may suggest the role of hormonal factors.

Parental Investment by Birth Fathers and Stepfathers : Roles of Mating Effort and Childhood Co-residence Duration.

This study investigates the determinants of paternal investment by birth fathers and stepfathers. Inclusive fitness theory predicts higher parental investment in birth children than stepchildren, and this has consistently been found in previous studies. Here we investigate whether paternal investment varies with childhood co-residence duration and differs between stepfathers and divorced birth fathers by comparing the investment of (1) stepfathers, (2) birth fathers who are separated from the child's mother, and (3) birth fathers who still are in a relationship with her. Path analysis was conducted using cross-sectional data from adolescents and younger adults (aged 17-19, 27-29, and 37-39 years) from the German Family Panel (pairfam), collected in 2010-2011 (n = 8326). As proxies of paternal investment, we used financial and practical help, emotional support, intimacy, and emotional closeness, as reported by the children. We found that birth fathers who were still in a relationship with the mother invested the most, and stepfathers invested the least. Furthermore, the investment of both separated fathers and stepfathers increased with the duration of co-residence with the child. However, in the case of financial help and intimacy, the effect of childhood co-residence duration was stronger in stepfathers than in separated fathers. Our findings support inclusive fitness theory and mating effort theory in explaining social behavior and family dynamics in this population. Furthermore, social environment, such as childhood co-residence was associated with paternal investment.

The interplay of grandparental investment according to the survival status of other grandparent types.

Inclusive fitness theory predicts that grandparental investment in grandchildren aims to maximise their inclusive fitness. Owing to an increasing overlap between successive generations in modern affluent populations, the importance of grandparental investment remains high. Despite the growing literature, there is limited knowledge regarding how the survival status of different grandparent types influences each other's investment in grandchildren. This question was studied by using the Involved Grandparenting and Child Well-Being Survey, which provided nationally representative data of English and Welsh adolescents aged 11-16-years. We applied Bayesian structural equation modeling (BSEM) where grandparental investment in grandchildren was modelled using multi-indicator unobserved latent variable. Our results showed that maternal grandmothers' investment was increased by having a living maternal grandfather but not vice versa. Having a living maternal grandmother was also associated with decreased investment of paternal grandparents while the opposite was not found. These findings indicate that the association between the survival status of other grandparents and the focal grandparents' investment varies between grandparent types.

Structural equation modeling reveals decoupling of ecological and self-perceived outcomes in a garden box social-ecological system.

It is well known that green urban commons enhance mental and physical well-being and improve local biodiversity. We aim to investigate how these outcomes are related in an urban system and which variables are associated with better outcomes. We model the outcomes of an urban common-box gardening-by applying the Social-Ecological Systems (SES) framework. We expand the SES framework by analyzing it from the perspective of social evolution theory. The system was studied empirically through field inventories and questionnaires and modeled quantitatively by Structural Equation Modeling (SEM). This method offers powerful statistical models of complex social-ecological systems. Our results show that objectively evaluated ecological outcomes and self-perceived outcomes are decoupled: gardening groups that successfully govern the natural resource ecologically do not necessarily report many social, ecological, or individual benefits, and vice versa. Social capital, box location, gardener concerns, and starting year influenced the changes in the outcomes. In addition, the positive association of frequent interactions with higher self-perceived outcomes, and lack of such association with relatedness of group members suggests that reciprocity rather than kin selection explains cooperation. Our findings exemplify the importance of understanding natural resource systems at a very low "grassroot" level.

Mothers with higher twinning propensity had lower fertility in pre-industrial Europe.

Historically, mothers producing twins gave birth, on average, more often than non-twinners. This observation has been interpreted as twinners having higher intrinsic fertility - a tendency to conceive easily irrespective of age and other factors - which has shaped both hypotheses about why twinning persists and varies across populations, and the design of medical studies on female fertility. Here we show in >20k pre-industrial European mothers that this interpretation results from an ecological fallacy: twinners had more births not due to higher intrinsic fertility, but because mothers that gave birth more accumulated more opportunities to produce twins. Controlling for variation in the exposure to the risk of twinning reveals that mothers with higher twinning propensity - a physiological predisposition to producing twins - had fewer births, and when twin mortality was high, fewer offspring reaching adulthood. Twinning rates may thus be driven by variation in its mortality costs, rather than variation in intrinsic fertility.

Food availability at birth limited reproductive success in historical humans.

Environmental conditions in early life can profoundly affect individual development and have consequences for reproductive success. Limited food availability may be one of the reasons for this, but direct evidence linking variation in early-life nutrition to reproductive performance in adulthood in natural populations is sparse. We combined historical agricultural data with detailed demographic church records to investigate the effect of food availability around the time of birth on the reproductive success of 927 men and women born in 18th-century Finland. Our study population exhibits natural mortality and fertility rates typical of many preindustrial societies, and individuals experienced differing access to resources due to social stratification. We found that among both men and women born into landless families (i.e., with low access to resources), marital prospects, probability of reproduction, and offspring viability were all positively related to local crop yield during the birth year. Such effects were generally absent among those born into landowning families. Among landless individuals born when yields of the two main crops, rye and barley, were both below median, only 50% of adult males and 55% of adult females gained any reproductive success in their lifetime, whereas 97% and 95% of those born when both yields were above the median did so. Our results suggest that maternal investment in offspring in prenatal or early postnatal life may have profound implications for the evolutionary fitness of human offspring, particularly among those for which resources are more limiting. Our study adds support to the idea that early nutrition can limit reproductive success in natural animal populations, and provides the most direct evidence to date that this process applies to humans.

Fluctuating feather asymmetry in relation to corticosterone levels is sex-dependent in Eurasian treecreeper (Certhia familiaris) nestlings.

Fluctuating asymmetry (FA) has been widely used as a stress-related phenotypic marker of developmental instability. However, previous studies relating FA to various stressful conditions have produced inconsistent results and we still lack quantitative individual-level evidence that high FA is related to stress in wild vertebrate species. We studied how baseline plasma levels of corticosterone predicted FA of wing and tail feathers in free-living Eurasian treecreeper (Certhia familiaris) nestlings. We found a sex-specific association between corticosterone levels and FA: high corticosterone levels were related to an increased FA in male but not in female nestlings. These results suggest that in treecreepers, FA may correlate with individual stress hormone levels, male developmental trajectory being potentially more sensitive to stress than that of the female.