Trait-Specific Indirect Effects Underlie Variation in the Response of Spiders to Cannibalistic Social Partners.

AbstractIn cannibalistic species, selection to avoid conspecifics may stem from the need to avoid being eaten or to avoid competition. Individuals may thus use conspecific cues to modulate their behavior to such threats. Yet the nature of variation for such cues remains elusive. Here, we use a half-sib/full-sib design to evaluate the contribution of (indirect) genetic or environmental effects to the behavioral response of the cannibalistic wolf spider Lycosa fasciiventris (Dufour, 1835) toward conspecific cues. Spiders showed variation in relative occupancy time, activity, and velocity on patches with or without conspecific cues, but direct genetic variance was found only for occupancy time. These three traits were correlated and could be lumped in a principal component: spiders spending more time in patches with conspecific cues moved less and more slowly in those areas. Genetic and/or environmental components of carapace width and weight loss in the social partner, which may reflect the quality and/or quantity of cues produced, were significantly correlated with this principal component, with larger partners causing focal individuals to move more slowly. Therefore, environmental and genetic trait variation in social partners may maintain trait diversity in focal individuals, even in the absence of direct genetic variation.

Defining electrocardiographic criteria to differentiate non-type 1 Brugada ECG variants from normal incomplete RBBB patterns in the young SCD-SOS cohort.

INTRODUCTION: We assessed the prevalence of non-type 1 Brugada pattern (T1BrP) in children and young adults from the Sudden Cardiac Death-Screening Of risk factorS cohort and the diagnostic yield of nonexpert manual and automatic algorithm electrocardiogram (ECG) measurements. METHODS: Cross-sectional study. We reviewed 14 662 ECGs and identified 2226 with a rSr'-pattern in V1-V2. Among these, 115 were classified by experts in hereditary arrhythmic-syndromes as having or not non-T1BrP, and were compared with measurements of 5 ECG-derived parameters based on a triangle formed by r' -wave (d(A), d(B), d(B)/h, ß-angle) and ST-ascent, assessed both automatically and manually by nonexperts. We estimated intra- and interobserver concordance for each criterion, calculated diagnostic accuracy and defined the most appropriate cut-off values. RESULTS: A rSr'-pattern in V1-V2 was associated with higher PQ interval and QRS duration, male gender, and lower body mass index (BMI). The manual measurements of non-T1BrP criteria were moderately reproducible with high intraobserver and moderate interobserver concordance coefficients (ICC: 0.72-0.98, and 0.63-0.76). Criteria with higher discriminatory capacity were: distance d(B) (0.72; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.65-0.80) and ST-ascent (0.87; 95% CI: 0.82-0.92), which was superior to the 4 r'-wave criteria together (area under curve [AUC: 0.74]). We suggest new cut-offs with improved combination of sensitivity and specificity: d(B) ≥ 1.4 mm and ST-ascent ≥ 0.7 mm (sensitivity: 1%-82%; specificity: 71%-84%), that can be automatically measured to allow classification in four morphologies with increasing non-T1BrP probability. CONCLUSION: rSr'-pattern in precordial leads V1-V2 is a frequent finding and the detection of non-T1BrP by using the aforementioned five measurements is reproducible and accurate. In this study, we describe new cut-off values that may help untrained clinicians to identify young individuals who may require further work-up for a potential Brugada Syndrome diagnosis.

A method based on non-ionizing microwave radiation for ancillary diagnosis of osteoporosis: a pilot study.

BACKGROUND: Osteoporosis is a condition characterized by low bone mineral density, which typically leads to fractures and reduced quality of life. Currently, diagnostic devices used to assess this condition (e.g., dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry) are very costly, making it infeasible to meet the demand for testing in most countries. Therefore, we proposed a preclinical validation of a prototype called Osseus in an attempt to enhance osteoporosis screening tests and alleviate their costs. Osseus is a device developed to assist bone mineral density classification. It integrates a microcontroller into other peripheral devices to measure the attenuation at the middle phalanx of the middle finger, with two antennas operating at the 2.45 GHz frequency. RESULTS: We conducted tests with plaster, poultry, and porcine bones. A comparison of the measurements of the original and mechanically altered samples demonstrated that the device can handle the complexity of the tissues within the bone structure and characterize its microarchitecture. CONCLUSIONS: Osseus is a device that has been preliminarily validated. Ionising radiation needed for DXA tests is replaced by non-ionising microwave electromagnetic radiation. Osseus enables early detection of osteoporosis, reduces costs, and optimizes high-complexity testing referrals. There is a lack of validation studies with the reference/gold standard that are currently under development.

How Reliable Are Ultra-Short-Term HRV Measurements during Cognitively Demanding Tasks?

Ultra-short-term HRV features assess minor autonomous nervous system variations such as variations resulting from cognitive stress peaks during demanding tasks. Several studies compare ultra-short-term and short-term HRV measurements to investigate their reliability. However, existing experiments are conducted in low cognitively demanding environments. In this paper, we propose to evaluate these measurements' reliability under cognitively demanding tasks using a near real-life setting. For this purpose, we selected 31 HRV features, extracted from data collected from 21 programmers performing code comprehension, and compared them across 18 different time frames, ranging from 3 min to 10 s. Statistical significance and correlation tests were performed between the features extracted using the larger window (3 min) and the same features extracted with the other 17 time frames. We paired these analyses with Bland-Altman plots to inspect how the extraction window size affects the HRV features. The main results show 13 features that presented at least 50% correlation when using 60-second windows. The HF and mNN features achieved around 50% correlation using a 30-second window. The 30-second window was the smallest time frame considered to have reliable measurements. Furthermore, the mNN feature proved to be quite robust to the shortening of the time resolution.

The sources of variation for individual prey-to-predator size ratios.

The relative body size at which predators are willing to attack prey, a key trait for predator-prey interactions, is usually considered invariant. However, this ratio can vary widely among individuals or populations. Identifying the range and origin of such variation is key to understanding the strength and constraints on selection in both predators and prey. Still, these sources of variation remain largely unknown. We filled this gap by measuring the genetic, maternal and environmental variation of the maximum prey-to-predator size ratio (PPSRmax) in juveniles of the wolf spider Lycosa fasciiventris using a paternal half-sib split-brood design, in which each male was paired with two females and the offspring reared in two food environments: poor and rich. Each juvenile spider was then sequentially offered crickets of decreasing size and the maximum prey size killed was determined. We also measured body size and body condition of spiders upon emergence and just before the trial. We found low, but significant heritability (h2 = 0.069) and dominance and common environmental variance (d2 + 4c2 = 0.056). PPSRmax was also partially explained by body condition (during trial) but there was no effect of the rearing food environment. Finally, a maternal correlation between body size early in life and PPSRmax indicated that offspring born larger were less predisposed to feed on larger prey later in life. Therefore, PPSRmax, a central trait in ecosystems, can vary widely and this variation is due to different sources, with important consequences for changes in this trait in the short and long terms.

Biomedical signals and machine learning in amyotrophic lateral sclerosis: a systematic review.

INTRODUCTION: The use of machine learning (ML) techniques in healthcare encompasses an emerging concept that envisages vast contributions to the tackling of rare diseases. In this scenario, amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) involves complexities that are yet not demystified. In ALS, the biomedical signals present themselves as potential biomarkers that, when used in tandem with smart algorithms, can be useful to applications within the context of the disease. METHODS: This Systematic Literature Review (SLR) consists of searching for and investigating primary studies that use ML techniques and biomedical signals related to ALS. Following the definition and execution of the SLR protocol, 18 articles met the inclusion, exclusion, and quality assessment criteria, and answered the SLR research questions. DISCUSSIONS: Based on the results, we identified three classes of ML applications combined with biomedical signals in the context of ALS: diagnosis (72.22%), communication (22.22%), and survival prediction (5.56%). CONCLUSIONS: Distinct algorithmic models and biomedical signals have been reported and present promising approaches, regardless of their classes. In summary, this SLR provides an overview of the primary studies analyzed as well as directions for the construction and evolution of technology-based research within the scope of ALS.

The influence of personality on the quality of vision after multifocal intraocular lens implantation.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the possible correlation between patients' personality traits and subjective perception of quality of vision (QoV), after multifocal intraocular lens (mIOL) implantation. METHODS: patients who had bilateral implantation of a non-diffractive X-WAVE or a trifocal lens were assessed 6 months postoperatively. Patients answered the NEO-Five Factor Inventory (NEO-FFI-20) questionnaire ("Big Five five-factor personality model") to examine their personality. Six months following surgery, patients were asked to fill a QoV questionnaire where they graded the frequency of 10 common visual symptoms. Primary outcomes were to evaluate the correlation between personality scores and the reported frequency of visual disturbances. RESULTS: The study comprised 20 patients submitted to bilateral cataract surgery, 10 with a non-diffractive X-WAVE lens (AcrySof® IQ Vivity) and 10 with a trifocal lens (AcrySof® IQ PanOptix). Mean age was 60.23 (7.06) years. Six months following surgery, patients with lower scores of conscientiousness and extroversion reported a higher frequency of visual disturbances (blurred vision, P = .015 and P = .009, seeing double images P = .018 and P = .006, and having difficulties focusing, P = .027 and P = .022, respectively). In addition, patients with high neuroticism scores had more difficulty focusing (P = .033). CONCLUSIONS: In this study, personality traits such as low conscientiousness and extroversion and high neuroticism significantly influenced QoV perception 6 months after bilateral multifocal lens implantation. Patients' personality questionnaires could be a useful preoperative assessment test to a mIOL.

EEG as a potential ground truth for the assessment of cognitive state in software development activities: A multimodal imaging study.

Cognitive human error and recent cognitive taxonomy on human error causes of software defects support the intuitive idea that, for instance, mental overload, attention slips, and working memory overload are important human causes for software bugs. In this paper, we approach the EEG as a reliable surrogate to MRI-based reference of the programmer's cognitive state to be used in situations where heavy imaging techniques are infeasible. The idea is to use EEG biomarkers to validate other less intrusive physiological measures, that can be easily recorded by wearable devices and useful in the assessment of the developer's cognitive state during software development tasks. Herein, our EEG study, with the support of fMRI, presents an extensive and systematic analysis by inspecting metrics and extracting relevant information about the most robust features, best EEG channels and the best hemodynamic time delay in the context of software development tasks. From the EEG-fMRI similarity analysis performed, we found significant correlations between a subset of EEG features and the Insula region of the brain, which has been reported as a region highly related to high cognitive tasks, such as software development tasks. We concluded that despite a clear inter-subject variability of the best EEG features and hemodynamic time delay used, the most robust and predominant EEG features, across all the subjects, are related to the Hjorth parameter Activity and Total Power features, from the EEG channels F4, FC4 and C4, and considering in most of the cases a hemodynamic time delay of 4 seconds used on the hemodynamic response function. These findings should be taken into account in future EEG-fMRI studies in the context of software debugging.

Influence of bilateral transcranial direct-current stimulation on muscle strength and respiratory endurance: Randomized, placebo-controlled, double-blind trial protocol.

Transcranial direct current stimulation (tDCS) has become established as an effective therapeutic approach, employed to modulate cortical excitability in various conditions. Nonetheless, few studies have assessed the use of tDCS in improving respiratory performance both in healthy and in subjects with respiratory disfunction. This randomized double-blind placebo-controlled trial evaluated the outcomes of lung function, strength of inspiratory muscles, general strength after intervention with bilateral tDCS both in young and elderly female subjects. Eighty subjects were randomized into four groups divided by age (40 young and 40 elderly) and intervention vs. placebo. After a basal (day 1) evaluation all subjects performed two evaluation/intervention rounds with 48 to 72 h interval. Lung function evaluated with spirometry evaluation with Forced vital capacity (FVC), Forced Expiratory Volume in 1 S (FEV1), FEV1/FVC Ratio, Maximal Voluntary Ventilation (MVV); Dynamic Inspiratory muscle strength evaluated with Powerbreathe and general strength with dynamometer. This study intends to understand the behavior of respiratory muscle strength and endurance after intervention with bilateral cathodal tDCS over the primary motor cortex in healthy young and elderly subjects, as a bridge for larger studies both in healthy and rehabilitation setting.

Digital dual test syphilis/HIV detection based on Fourier Descriptors of Cyclic Voltammetry curves.

BACKGROUND: Effective and timely detection is vital for mitigating the severe impacts of Sexually Transmitted Infections (STI), including syphilis and HIV. Cyclic Voltammetry (CV) sensors have shown promise as diagnostic tools for these STI, offering a pathway towards cost-effective solutions in primary health care settings. OBJECTIVE: This study aims to pioneer the use of Fourier Descriptors (FDs) in analyzing CV curves as 2D closed contours, targeting the simultaneous detection of syphilis and HIV. METHODS: Raw CV signals are filtered, resampled, and transformed into 2D closed contours for FD extraction. Essential shape characteristics are captured through selected coefficients. A complementary geometrical analysis further extracts features like curve areas and principal axes lengths from CV curves. A Mahalanobis Distance Classifier is employed for differentiation between patient and control groups. RESULTS: The evaluation of the proposed method revealed promising results with classification performance metrics such as Accuracy and F1-Score consistently achieving values rounded to 0.95 for syphilis and 0.90 for HIV. These results underscore the potential efficacy of the proposed approach in differentiating between patient and control samples for STI detection. CONCLUSION: By integrating principles from biosensors, signal processing, image processing, machine learning, and medical diagnostics, this study presents a comprehensive approach to enhance the detection of both syphilis and HIV. This setts the stage for advanced and accessible STI diagnostic solutions.

Towards continuous non-invasive blood pressure measurements-interpretation of the vasculature response to cuff inflation.

Blood pressure (BP) surrogates, such as pulse transit time (PTT) or pulse arrival time (PAT), have been intensively explored with the goal of achieving cuffless, continuous, and accurate BP inference. In order to estimate BP, a one-point calibration strategy between PAT and BP is typically used. Recent research focuses on advanced calibration procedures exploiting the cuff inflation process to improve calibration robustness by active and controlled modulation of peripheral PAT, as measured via plethysmograph (PPG) and electrocardiogram (ECG) combination. Such methods require a detailed understanding of the mechanisms behind the vasculature's response to cuff inflation; for this, a model has recently been developed to infer the PAT-BP calibration from measured cuff-induced vasculature changes. The model, while promising, is still preliminary and only partially validated; in-depth analysis and further developments are still needed. Therefore, this work aims to improve our understanding of the cuff-vasculature interaction in this model; we seek to define potential opportunities and to highlight which aspects may require further study. We compare model behaviors with clinical data samples based on a set of observable characteristics relevant for BP inference and calibration. It is found that the observed behaviors are qualitatively well represented with the current simulation model and complexity, with limitations regarding the prediction of the onset of the distal arm dynamics and behavior changes at high cuff pressures. Additionally, a sensitivity analysis of the model's parameter space is conducted to show the factors that influence the characteristics of its observable outputs. It was revealed that easily controllable experimental variables, such as lateral cuff length and inflation rate, have a significant impact on cuff-induced vasculature changes. An interesting dependency between systemic BP and cuff-induced distal PTT change is also found, revealing opportunities for improved methods for BP surrogate calibration. However, validation via patient data shows that this relation does not hold for all patients, indicating required model improvements to be validated in follow up studies. These results provide promising directions to improve the calibration process featuring cuff inflation towards accurate and robust non-invasive blood pressure estimation.

Unsupervised EEG preictal interval identification in patients with drug-resistant epilepsy.

Typical seizure prediction models aim at discriminating interictal brain activity from pre-seizure electrographic patterns. Given the lack of a preictal clinical definition, a fixed interval is widely used to develop these models. Recent studies reporting preictal interval selection among a range of fixed intervals show inter- and intra-patient preictal interval variability, possibly reflecting the heterogeneity of the seizure generation process. Obtaining accurate labels of the preictal interval can be used to train supervised prediction models and, hence, avoid setting a fixed preictal interval for all seizures within the same patient. Unsupervised learning methods hold great promise for exploring preictal alterations on a seizure-specific scale. Multivariate and univariate linear and nonlinear features were extracted from scalp electroencephalography (EEG) signals collected from 41 patients with drug-resistant epilepsy undergoing presurgical monitoring. Nonlinear dimensionality reduction was performed for each group of features and each of the 226 seizures. We applied different clustering methods in searching for preictal clusters located until 2 h before the seizure onset. We identified preictal patterns in 90% of patients and 51% of the visually inspected seizures. The preictal clusters manifested a seizure-specific profile with varying duration (22.9 ± 21.0 min) and starting time before seizure onset (47.6 ± 27.3 min). Searching for preictal patterns on the EEG trace using unsupervised methods showed that it is possible to identify seizure-specific preictal signatures for some patients and some seizures within the same patient.

Digital health solution for monitoring and surveillance of Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis in Brazil.

Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis (ALS) is a complex and rare neurodegenerative disease given its heterogeneity. Despite being known for many years, few countries have accurate information about the characteristics of people diagnosed with ALS, such as data regarding diagnosis and clinical features of the disease. In Brazil, the lack of information about ALS limits data for the research progress and public policy development that benefits people affected by this health condition. In this context, this article aims to show a digital health solution development and application for research, intervention, and strengthening of the response to ALS in the Brazilian Health System. The proposed solution is composed of two platforms: the Brazilian National ALS Registry, responsible for the data collection in a structured way from ALS patients all over Brazil; and the Brazilian National ALS Observatory, responsible for processing the data collected in the National Registry and for providing a monitoring room with indicators on people diagnosed with ALS in Brazil. The development of this solution was supported by the Brazilian Ministry of Health (MoH) and was carried out by a multidisciplinary team with expertise in ALS. This solution represents a tool with great potential for strengthening public policies and stands out for being the only public database on the disease, besides containing innovations that allow data collection by health professionals and/or patients. By using both platforms, it is believed that it will be possible to understand the demographic and epidemiological data of ALS in Brazil, since the data will be able to be analyzed by care teams and also by public health managers, both in the individual and collective monitoring of people living with ALS in Brazil.

Digital Alternative Communication for Individuals with Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis: What We Have.

Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis is a disease that compromises the motor system and the functional abilities of the person in an irreversible way, causing the progressive loss of the ability to communicate. Tools based on Augmentative and Alternative Communication are essential for promoting autonomy and improving communication, life quality, and survival. This Systematic Literature Review aimed to provide evidence on eye-image-based Human-Computer Interaction approaches for the Augmentative and Alternative Communication of people with Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis. The Systematic Literature Review was conducted and guided following a protocol consisting of search questions, inclusion and exclusion criteria, and quality assessment, to select primary studies published between 2010 and 2021 in six repositories: Science Direct, Web of Science, Springer, IEEE Xplore, ACM Digital Library, and PubMed. After the screening, 25 primary studies were evaluated. These studies showcased four low-cost, non-invasive Human-Computer Interaction strategies employed for Augmentative and Alternative Communication in people with Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis. The strategies included Eye-Gaze, which featured in 36% of the studies; Eye-Blink and Eye-Tracking, each accounting for 28% of the approaches; and the Hybrid strategy, employed in 8% of the studies. For these approaches, several computational techniques were identified. For a better understanding, a workflow containing the development phases and the respective methods used by each strategy was generated. The results indicate the possibility and feasibility of developing Human-Computer Interaction resources based on eye images for Augmentative and Alternative Communication in a control group. The absence of experimental testing in people with Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis reiterates the challenges related to the scalability, efficiency, and usability of these technologies for people with the disease. Although challenges still exist, the findings represent important advances in the fields of health sciences and technology, promoting a promising future with possibilities for better life quality.

Computational methods applied to syphilis: where are we, and where are we going?

Syphilis is an infectious disease that can be diagnosed and treated cheaply. Despite being a curable condition, the syphilis rate is increasing worldwide. In this sense, computational methods can analyze data and assist managers in formulating new public policies for preventing and controlling sexually transmitted infections (STIs). Computational techniques can integrate knowledge from experiences and, through an inference mechanism, apply conditions to a database that seeks to explain data behavior. This systematic review analyzed studies that use computational methods to establish or improve syphilis-related aspects. Our review shows the usefulness of computational tools to promote the overall understanding of syphilis, a global problem, to guide public policy and practice, to target better public health interventions such as surveillance and prevention, health service delivery, and the optimal use of diagnostic tools. The review was conducted according to PRISMA 2020 Statement and used several quality criteria to include studies. The publications chosen to compose this review were gathered from Science Direct, Web of Science, Springer, Scopus, ACM Digital Library, and PubMed databases. Then, studies published between 2015 and 2022 were selected. The review identified 1,991 studies. After applying inclusion, exclusion, and study quality assessment criteria, 26 primary studies were included in the final analysis. The results show different computational approaches, including countless Machine Learning algorithmic models, and three sub-areas of application in the context of syphilis: surveillance (61.54%), diagnosis (34.62%), and health policy evaluation (3.85%). These computational approaches are promising and capable of being tools to support syphilis control and surveillance actions.

Osteoporosis screening using machine learning and electromagnetic waves.

Osteoporosis is a disease characterized by impairment of bone microarchitecture that causes high socioeconomic impacts in the world because of fractures and hospitalizations. Although dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) is the gold standard for diagnosing the disease, access to DXA in developing countries is still limited due to its high cost, being present only in specialized hospitals. In this paper, we analyze the performance of Osseus, a low-cost portable device based on electromagnetic waves that measures the attenuation of the signal that crosses the medial phalanx of a patient's middle finger and was developed for osteoporosis screening. The analysis is carried out by predicting changes in bone mineral density using Osseus measurements and additional common risk factors used as input features to a set of supervised classification models, while the results from DXA are taken as target (real) values during the training of the machine learning algorithms. The dataset consisted of 505 patients who underwent osteoporosis screening with both devices (DXA and Osseus), of whom 21.8% were healthy and 78.2% had low bone mineral density or osteoporosis. A cross-validation with k-fold = 5 was considered in model training, while 20% of the whole dataset was used for testing. The obtained performance of the best model (Random Forest) presented a sensitivity of 0.853, a specificity of 0.879, and an F1 of 0.859. Since the Random Forest (RF) algorithm allows some interpretability of its results (through the impurity check), we were able to identify the most important variables in the classification of osteoporosis. The results showed that the most important variables were age, body mass index, and the signal attenuation provided by Osseus. The RF model, when used together with Osseus measurements, is effective in screening patients and facilitates the early diagnosis of osteoporosis. The main advantages of such early screening are the reduction of costs associated with exams, surgeries, treatments, and hospitalizations, as well as improved quality of life for patients.

Electronic health records in Brazil: Prospects and technological challenges.

Electronic Health Records (EHR) are critical tools for advancing digital health worldwide. In Brazil, EHR development must follow specific standards, laws, and guidelines that contribute to implementing beneficial resources for population health monitoring. This paper presents an audit of the main approaches used for EHR development in Brazil, thus highlighting prospects, challenges, and existing gaps in the field. We applied a systematic review protocol to search for articles published from 2011 to 2021 in seven databases (Science Direct, Web of Science, PubMed, Springer, IEEE Xplore, ACM Digital Library, and SciELO). Subsequently, we analyzed 14 articles that met the inclusion and quality criteria and answered our research questions. According to this analysis, 78.58% (11) of the articles state that interoperability between systems is essential for improving patient care. Moreover, many resources are being designed and deployed to achieve this communication between EHRs and other healthcare systems in the Brazilian landscape. Besides interoperability, the articles report other considerable elements: (i) the need for increased security with the deployment of permission resources for viewing patient data, (ii) the absence of accurate data for testing EHRs, and (iii) the relevance of defining a methodology for EHR development. Our review provides an overview of EHR development in Brazil and discusses current gaps, innovative approaches, and technological solutions that could potentially address the related challenges. Lastly, our study also addresses primary elements that could contribute to relevant components of EHR development in the context of Brazil's public health system. Systematic review registration: PROSPERO, identifier CRD42021233219, https://www.crd.york.ac.uk/prospero/display_record.php?ID=CRD42021233219.

Development of a Cyclic Voltammetry-Based Method for the Detection of Antigens and Antibodies as a Novel Strategy for Syphilis Diagnosis.

The improvement of laboratory diagnosis is a critical step for the reduction of syphilis cases around the world. In this paper, we present the development of an impedance-based method for detecting T. pallidum antigens and antibodies as an auxiliary tool for syphilis laboratory diagnosis. We evaluate the voltammetric signal obtained after incubation in carbon or gold nanoparticle-modified carbon electrodes in the presence or absence of Poly-L-Lysine. Our results indicate that the signal obtained from the electrodes was sufficient to distinguish between infected and non-infected samples immediately (T0') or 15 min (T15') after incubation, indicating its potential use as a point-of-care method as a screening strategy.

A new approach for interpretability and reliability in clinical risk prediction: Acute coronary syndrome scenario.

INTRODUCTION: The risk prediction of the occurrence of a clinical event is often based on conventional statistical procedures, through the implementation of risk score models. Recently, approaches based on more complex machine learning (ML) methods have been developed. Despite the latter usually have a better predictive performance, they obtain little approval from the physicians, as they lack interpretability and, therefore, clinical confidence. One clinical issue where both types of models have received great attention is the mortality risk prediction after acute coronary syndromes (ACS). OBJECTIVE: We intend to create a new risk assessment methodology that combines the best characteristics of both risk score and ML models. More specifically, we aim to develop a method that, besides having a good performance, offers a personalized model and outcome for each patient, presents high interpretability, and incorporates an estimation of the prediction reliability which is not usually available. By combining these features in the same approach we expect that it can boost the confidence of physicians to use such a tool in their daily activity. METHODS: In order to achieve the mentioned goals, a three-step methodology was developed: several rules were created by dichotomizing risk factors; such rules were trained with a machine learning classifier to predict the acceptance degree of each rule (the probability that the rule is correct) for each patient; that information was combined and used to compute the risk of mortality and the reliability of such prediction. The methodology was applied to a dataset of 1111 patients admitted with any type of ACS (myocardial infarction and unstable angina) in two Portuguese hospitals, to assess the 30-days all-cause mortality risk, being validated through a Monte-Carlo cross-validation technique. The performance was compared with state-of-the-art approaches: logistic regression (LR), artificial neural network (ANN), and clinical risk score model (namely the Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events - GRACE). RESULTS: For the scenario being analyzed, the performance of the proposed approach and the comparison models was assessed through discrimination and calibration. The ability to rank the patients was evaluated through the area under the ROC curve (AUC), and the ability to stratify the patients into low or high-risk groups was determined using the geometric mean (GM) of specificity and sensitivity, the negative predictive value (NPV) and the positive predictive value (PPV). The validation calibration curves were also inspected. The proposed approach (AUC = 81%, GM = 74%, PPV = 17%, NPV = 99%) achieved testing results identical to the standard LR model (AUC = 83%, GM = 73%, PPV = 16%, NPV=99%), but offers superior interpretability and personalization; it also significantly outperforms the GRACE risk model (AUC = 79%, GM = 47%, PPV = 13%, NPV = 98%) and the standard ANN model (AUC = 78%, GM = 70%, PPV = 13%, NPV = 98%). The calibration curve also suggests a very good generalization ability of the obtained model as it approaches the ideal curve (slope = 0.96). Finally, the reliability estimation of individual predictions presented a great correlation with the misclassifications rate. CONCLUSION: We developed and described a new tool that showed great potential to guide the clinical staff in the risk assessment and decision-making process, and to obtain their wide acceptance due to its interpretability and reliability estimation properties. The methodology presented a good performance when applied to ACS events, but those properties may have a beneficial application in other clinical scenarios as well.

Improving the compromise between accuracy, interpretability and personalization of rule-based machine learning in medical problems.

One of the key challenges when developing a predictive model is the capability to describe the domain knowledge and the cause-effect relationships in a simple way. Decision rules are a useful and important methodology in this context, justifying their application in several areas, particularly in clinical practice. Several machine-learning classifiers have exploited the advantageous properties of decision rules to build intelligent prediction models, namely decision trees and ensembles of trees (ETs). However, such methodologies usually suffer from a trade-off between interpretability and predictive performance. Some procedures consider a simplification of ETs, using heuristic approaches to select an optimal reduced set of decision rules. In this paper, we introduce a novel step to those methodologies. We create a new component to predict if a given rule will be correct or not for a particular patient, which introduces personalization into the procedure. Furthermore, the validation results using three public clinical datasets suggest that it also allows to increase the predictive performance of the selected set of rules, improving the mentioned trade-off.