A primer on the use of machine learning to distil knowledge from data in biological psychiatry.

Applications of machine learning in the biomedical sciences are growing rapidly. This growth has been spurred by diverse cross-institutional and interdisciplinary collaborations, public availability of large datasets, an increase in the accessibility of analytic routines, and the availability of powerful computing resources. With this increased access and exposure to machine learning comes a responsibility for education and a deeper understanding of its bases and bounds, borne equally by data scientists seeking to ply their analytic wares in medical research and by biomedical scientists seeking to harness such methods to glean knowledge from data. This article provides an accessible and critical review of machine learning for a biomedically informed audience, as well as its applications in psychiatry. The review covers definitions and expositions of commonly used machine learning methods, and historical trends of their use in psychiatry. We also provide a set of standards, namely Guidelines for REporting Machine Learning Investigations in Neuropsychiatry (GREMLIN), for designing and reporting studies that use machine learning as a primary data-analysis approach. Lastly, we propose the establishment of the Machine Learning in Psychiatry (MLPsych) Consortium, enumerate its objectives, and identify areas of opportunity for future applications of machine learning in biological psychiatry. This review serves as a cautiously optimistic primer on machine learning for those on the precipice as they prepare to dive into the field, either as methodological practitioners or well-informed consumers.

A polygenic resilience score moderates the genetic risk for schizophrenia: Replication in 18,090 cases and 28,114 controls from the Psychiatric Genomics Consortium.

Identifying heritable factors that moderate the genetic risk for schizophrenia (SCZ) could help clarify why some individuals remain unaffected despite having relatively high genetic liability. Previously, we developed a framework to mine genome-wide association (GWAS) data for common genetic variants that protect high-risk unaffected individuals from SCZ, leading to derivation of the first-ever "polygenic resilience score" for SCZ (resilient controls n = 3786; polygenic risk score-matched SCZ cases n = 18,619). Here, we performed a replication study to verify the moderating effect of our polygenic resilience score on SCZ risk (OR = 1.09, p = 4.03 × 10-5 ) using newly released GWAS data from 23 independent case-control studies collated by the Psychiatric Genomics Consortium (PGC) (resilient controls n = 2821; polygenic risk score-matched SCZ cases n = 5150). Additionally, we sought to optimize our polygenic resilience-scoring formula to improve subsequent modeling of resilience to SCZ and other complex disorders. We found significant replication of the polygenic resilience score, and found that strict pruning of SNPs based on linkage disequilibrium to known risk SNPs and their linked loci optimizes the performance of the polygenic resilience score.

A twin analysis to estimate genetic and environmental factors contributing to variation in weighted gene co-expression network module eigengenes.

Multivariate network-based analytic methods such as weighted gene co-expression network analysis are frequently applied to human and animal gene-expression data to estimate the first principal component of a module, or module eigengene (ME). MEs are interpreted as multivariate summaries of correlated gene-expression patterns and network connectivity across genes within a module. As such, they have the potential to elucidate the mechanisms by which molecular genomic variation contributes to individual differences in complex traits. Although increasingly used to test for associations between modules and complex traits, the genetic and environmental etiology of MEs has not been empirically established. It is unclear if, and to what degree, individual differences in blood-derived MEs reflect random variation versus familial aggregation arising from heritable or shared environmental influences. We used biometrical genetic analyses to estimate the contribution of genetic and environmental influences on MEs derived from blood lymphocytes collected on a sample of N = 661 older male twins from the Vietnam Era Twin Study of Aging (VETSA) whose mean age at assessment was 67.7 years (SD = 2.6 years, range = 62-74 years). Of the 26 detected MEs, 14 (56%) had statistically significant additive genetic variation with an average heritability of 44% (SD = 0.08, range = 35%-64%). Despite the relatively small sample size, this demonstration of significant family aggregation including estimates of heritability in 14 of the 26 MEs suggests that blood-based MEs are reliable and merit further exploration in terms of their associations with complex traits and diseases.

Novel genome-wide associations for effort valuation and psychopathology in children and adults.

The Research Domain Criteria (RDoC) initiative was established by the US National Institute of Mental Health as a multilevel, disorder-agnostic framework for analysis of human psychopathology through designated domains and constructs, including the "Positive Valence Systems" domain focused on reward-related behavior. This study investigates the reward valuation subconstruct of "effort" and its association with genetic markers, functional neurobiological pathways, and polygenic risk scores for psychopathology in 1215 children aged 6-12 and their parents (n = 1044). All participants completed the effort expenditure for rewards task (EEfRT), which assesses "effort" according to two quantitative measures: hard-task choice and reward sensitivity. Genetic association analyses were undertaken in MAGMA, utilizing EEfRT outcome variables as genome-wide association studies phenotypes to compute SNP and gene-level associations. Genome-wide association analyses found two distinct genetic loci that were significantly associated with measures of reward sensitivity and a separate genetic locus associated with hard task choice. Gene-set enrichment analysis yielded significant associations between "effort" and multiple gene sets involved in reward processing-related pathways, including dopamine receptor signaling, limbic system and forebrain development, and biological response to cocaine. These results serve to establish "effort" as a relevant construct for understanding reward-related behavior at the genetic level and support the RDoC framework for assessing disorder-agnostic psychopathology.

Autophagy, apoptosis, and neurodevelopmental genes might underlie selective brain region vulnerability in attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder.

Large-scale brain imaging studies by the ENIGMA Consortium identified structural changes associated with attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD). It is not clear why some brain regions are impaired and others spared by the etiological risks for ADHD. We hypothesized that spatial variation in brain cell organization and/or pathway expression levels contribute to selective brain region vulnerability (SBRV) in ADHD. In this study, we used the largest available collection of magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) results from the ADHD ENIGMA Consortium (subcortical MRI n = 3242; cortical MRI n = 4180) along with high-resolution postmortem brain microarray data from Allen Brain Atlas (donors n = 6) from 22 brain regions to investigate our SBRV hypothesis. We performed deconvolution of the bulk transcriptomic data to determine abundances of neuronal and nonneuronal cells in the brain. We assessed the relationships between gene-set expression levels, cell abundance, and standardized effect sizes representing regional changes in brain sizes in cases of ADHD. Our analysis yielded significant correlations between apoptosis, autophagy, and neurodevelopment genes with smaller brain sizes in ADHD, along with associations to regional abundances of astrocytes and oligodendrocytes. The lack of enrichment of common genetic risk variants for ADHD within implicated gene sets suggests an environmental etiology to these differences. This work provides novel mechanistic clues about SBRV in ADHD.

A polygenic resilience score moderates the genetic risk for schizophrenia.

Based on the discovery by the Resilience Project (Chen R. et al. Nat Biotechnol 34:531-538, 2016) of rare variants that confer resistance to Mendelian disease, and protective alleles for some complex diseases, we posited the existence of genetic variants that promote resilience to highly heritable polygenic disorders1,0 such as schizophrenia. Resilience has been traditionally viewed as a psychological construct, although our use of the term resilience refers to a different construct that directly relates to the Resilience Project, namely: heritable variation that promotes resistance to disease by reducing the penetrance of risk loci, wherein resilience and risk loci operate orthogonal to one another. In this study, we established a procedure to identify unaffected individuals with relatively high polygenic risk for schizophrenia, and contrasted them with risk-matched schizophrenia cases to generate the first known "polygenic resilience score" that represents the additive contributions to SZ resistance by variants that are distinct from risk loci. The resilience score was derived from data compiled by the Psychiatric Genomics Consortium, and replicated in three independent samples. This work establishes a generalizable framework for finding resilience variants for any complex, heritable disorder.

Structural brain imaging studies offer clues about the effects of the shared genetic etiology among neuropsychiatric disorders.

Genomewide association studies have found significant genetic correlations among many neuropsychiatric disorders. In contrast, we know much less about the degree to which structural brain alterations are similar among disorders and, if so, the degree to which such similarities have a genetic etiology. From the Enhancing Neuroimaging Genetics through Meta-Analysis (ENIGMA) consortium, we acquired standardized mean differences (SMDs) in regional brain volume and cortical thickness between cases and controls. We had data on 41 brain regions for: attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD), autism spectrum disorder (ASD), bipolar disorder (BD), epilepsy, major depressive disorder (MDD), obsessive compulsive disorder (OCD), and schizophrenia (SCZ). These data had been derived from 24,360 patients and 37,425 controls. The SMDs were significantly correlated between SCZ and BD, OCD, MDD, and ASD. MDD was positively correlated with BD and OCD. BD was positively correlated with OCD and negatively correlated with ADHD. These pairwise correlations among disorders were correlated with the corresponding pairwise correlations among disorders derived from genomewide association studies (r = 0.494). Our results show substantial similarities in sMRI phenotypes among neuropsychiatric disorders and suggest that these similarities are accounted for, in part, by corresponding similarities in common genetic variant architectures.

An integrated analysis of genes and functional pathways for aggression in human and rodent models.

Human genome-wide association studies (GWAS), transcriptome analyses of animal models, and candidate gene studies have advanced our understanding of the genetic architecture of aggressive behaviors. However, each of these methods presents unique limitations. To generate a more confident and comprehensive view of the complex genetics underlying aggression, we undertook an integrated, cross-species approach. We focused on human and rodent models to derive eight gene lists from three main categories of genetic evidence: two sets of genes identified in GWAS studies, four sets implicated by transcriptome-wide studies of rodent models, and two sets of genes with causal evidence from online Mendelian inheritance in man (OMIM) and knockout (KO) mice reports. These gene sets were evaluated for overlap and pathway enrichment to extract their similarities and differences. We identified enriched common pathways such as the G-protein coupled receptor (GPCR) signaling pathway, axon guidance, reelin signaling in neurons, and ERK/MAPK signaling. Also, individual genes were ranked based on their cumulative weights to quantify their importance as risk factors for aggressive behavior, which resulted in 40 top-ranked and highly interconnected genes. The results of our cross-species and integrated approach provide insights into the genetic etiology of aggression.

Genetic correlations among psychiatric and immune-related phenotypes based on genome-wide association data.

Individuals with psychiatric disorders have elevated rates of autoimmune comorbidity and altered immune signaling. It is unclear whether these altered immunological states have a shared genetic basis with those psychiatric disorders. The present study sought to use existing summary-level data from previous genome-wide association studies to determine if commonly varying single nucleotide polymorphisms are shared between psychiatric and immune-related phenotypes. We estimated heritability and examined pair-wise genetic correlations using the linkage disequilibrium score regression (LDSC) and heritability estimation from summary statistics methods. Using LDSC, we observed significant genetic correlations between immune-related disorders and several psychiatric disorders, including anorexia nervosa, attention deficit-hyperactivity disorder, bipolar disorder, major depression, obsessive compulsive disorder, schizophrenia, smoking behavior, and Tourette syndrome. Loci significantly mediating genetic correlations were identified for schizophrenia when analytically paired with Crohn's disease, primary biliary cirrhosis, systemic lupus erythematosus, and ulcerative colitis. We report significantly correlated loci and highlight those containing genome-wide associations and candidate genes for respective disorders. We also used the LDSC method to characterize genetic correlations among the immune-related phenotypes. We discuss our findings in the context of relevant genetic and epidemiological literature, as well as the limitations and caveats of the study.

Blood transcriptomic comparison of individuals with and without autism spectrum disorder: A combined-samples mega-analysis.

Blood-based microarray studies comparing individuals affected with autism spectrum disorder (ASD) and typically developing individuals help characterize differences in circulating immune cell functions and offer potential biomarker signal. We sought to combine the subject-level data from previously published studies by mega-analysis to increase the statistical power. We identified studies that compared ex vivo blood or lymphocytes from ASD-affected individuals and unrelated comparison subjects using Affymetrix or Illumina array platforms. Raw microarray data and clinical meta-data were obtained from seven studies, totaling 626 affected and 447 comparison subjects. Microarray data were processed using uniform methods. Covariate-controlled mixed-effect linear models were used to identify gene transcripts and co-expression network modules that were significantly associated with diagnostic status. Permutation-based gene-set analysis was used to identify functionally related sets of genes that were over- and under-expressed among ASD samples. Our results were consistent with diminished interferon-, EGF-, PDGF-, PI3K-AKT-mTOR-, and RAS-MAPK-signaling cascades, and increased ribosomal translation and NK-cell related activity in ASD. We explored evidence for sex-differences in the ASD-related transcriptomic signature. We also demonstrated that machine-learning classifiers using blood transcriptome data perform with moderate accuracy when data are combined across studies. Comparing our results with those from blood-based studies of protein biomarkers (e.g., cytokines and trophic factors), we propose that ASD may feature decoupling between certain circulating signaling proteins (higher in ASD samples) and the transcriptional cascades which they typically elicit within circulating immune cells (lower in ASD samples). These findings provide insight into ASD-related transcriptional differences in circulating immune cells. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

The influence of genes on "positive valence systems" constructs: A systematic review.

In 2009, the U.S. National Institute of Mental Health (NIMH) proposed an approach toward the deconstruction of psychiatric nosology under the research domain criteria (RDoC) framework. The overarching goal of RDoC is to identify robust, objective measures of behavior, emotion, cognition, and other domains that are more closely related to neurobiology than are diagnoses. A preliminary framework has been constructed, which has connected molecules, genes, brain circuits, behaviors, and other elements to dimensional psychiatric constructs. Although the RDoC framework has salience in emerging studies, foundational literature that pre-dated this framework requires synthesis and translation to the evolving objectives and nomenclature of RDoC. Toward this end, we review the candidate-gene association, linkage, and genome-wide studies that have implicated a variety of loci and genetic polymorphisms in selected Positive Valence Systems (PVS) constructs. Our goal is to review supporting evidence to currently listed genes implicated in this domain and novel candidates. We systematically searched and reviewed literature based on keywords listed under the June, 2011, edition of the PVS matrix on the RDoC website (http://www.nimh.nih.gov/research-priorities/rdoc/positive-valence-systems-workshop-proceedings.shtml), which were supplemented with de novo keywords pertinent to the scope of our review. Several candidate genes linked to the PVS framework were identified from candidate-gene association studies. We also identified novel candidates with loose association to PVS traits from genome-wide studies. There is strong evidence suggesting that PVS constructs, as currently conceptualized under the RDoC initiative, index genetically influenced traits; however, future research, including genetic epidemiological, and psychometric analyses, must be performed.

Bioinformatic analyses and conceptual synthesis of evidence linking ZNF804A to risk for schizophrenia and bipolar disorder.

Advances in molecular genetics, fueled by the results of large-scale genome-wide association studies, meta-analyses, and mega-analyses, have provided the means of identifying genetic risk factors for human disease, thereby enriching our understanding of the functionality of the genome in the post-genomic era. In the past half-decade, research on neuropsychiatric disorders has reached an important milestone: the identification of susceptibility genes reliably associated with complex psychiatric disorders at genome-wide levels of significance. This age of discovery provides the groundwork for follow-up studies designed to elucidate the mechanism(s) by which genetic variants confer susceptibility to these disorders. The gene encoding zinc-finger protein 804 A (ZNF804A) is among these candidate genes, recently being found to be strongly associated with schizophrenia and bipolar disorder via one of its non-coding mutations, rs1344706. Neurobiological, molecular, and bioinformatic analyses have improved our understanding of ZNF804A in general and this variant in particular; however, more work is needed to establish the mechanism(s) by which ZNF804A variants impinge on the biological substrates of the two disorders. Here, we review literature recently published on ZNF804A, and analyze critical concepts related to the biology of ZNF804A and the role of rs1344706 in schizophrenia and bipolar disorder. We synthesize the results of new bioinformatic analyses of ZNF804A with key elements of the existing literature and knowledge base. Furthermore, we suggest some potentially fruitful short- and long-term research goals in the assessment of ZNF804A.

How might ZNF804A variants influence risk for schizophrenia and bipolar disorder? A literature review, synthesis, and bioinformatic analysis.

The gene that encodes zinc finger protein 804A (ZNF804A) became a candidate risk gene for schizophrenia (SZ) after surpassing genome-wide significance thresholds in replicated genome-wide association scans and meta-analyses. Much remains unknown about this reported gene expression regulator; however, preliminary work has yielded insights into functional and biological effects of ZNF804A by targeting its regulatory activities in vitro and by characterizing allele-specific interactions with its risk-conferring single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs). There is now strong epidemiologic evidence for a role of ZNF804A polymorphisms in both SZ and bipolar disorder (BD); however, functional links between implicated variants and susceptible biological states have not been solidified. Here we briefly review the genetic evidence implicating ZNF804A polymorphisms as genetic risk factors for both SZ and BD, and discuss the potential functional consequences of these variants on the regulation of ZNF804A and its downstream targets. Empirical work and predictive bioinformatic analyses of the alternate alleles of the two most strongly implicated ZNF804A polymorphisms suggest they might alter the affinity of the gene sequence for DNA- and/or RNA-binding proteins, which might in turn alter expression levels of the gene or particular ZNF804A isoforms. Future work should focus on clarifying the critical periods and cofactors regulating these genetic influences on ZNF804A expression, as well as the downstream biological consequences of an imbalance in the expression of ZNF804A and its various mRNA isoforms.

Polygenic Resilience Scores are Associated with Lower Penetrance of Schizophrenia Risk Genes, Protection Against Psychiatric and Medical Disorders, and Enhanced Mental Well-Being and Cognition.

In the past decade, significant advances have been made in finding genomic risk loci for schizophrenia (SCZ). This, in turn, has enabled the search for SCZ resilience loci that mitigate the impact of SCZ risk genes. Recently, we discovered the first genomic resilience profile for SCZ, completely independent from the established risk loci for SCZ. We posited that these resilience loci protect against SCZ for those having a heighted genomic risk for SCZ. Nevertheless, our understanding of genetic resilience remains limited. It remains unclear whether resilience loci foster protection against adverse states associated with SCZ risk related to clinical, cognitive, and brain-structural phenotypes. To address this knowledge gap, we analyzed data from 487,409 participants from the UK Biobank, and found that resilience loci for SCZ afforded protection against lifetime psychiatric (schizophrenia, bipolar disorder, anxiety, and depression) and non-psychiatric medical disorders (such as asthma, cardiovascular disease, digestive disorders, metabolic disorders, and external causes of morbidity and mortality). Resilience loci also protected against self-harm behaviors, improved fluid intelligence, and larger whole-brain and brain-regional sizes. Overall, this study sheds light on the range of phenotypes that are significantly associated with resilience loci within the general population, revealing distinct patterns separate from those associated with SCZ risk loci. Our findings indicate that resilience loci may offer protection against serious psychiatric and medical outcomes, co-morbidities, and cognitive impairment. Therefore, it is conceivable that resilience loci facilitate adaptive processes linked to improved health and life expectancy.

Polygenic risk for alcohol consumption and multisite chronic pain: Associations with ad lib drinking behavior.

Interrelations between alcohol use disorder and chronic pain have received increasing empirical attention, and several lines of evidence support the possibility of shared genetic liability. However, research on the genetic contributions to the component processes of these complex and potentially overlapping phenotypes remains scarce. The goal of the present study was to test polygenic risk scores (PRSs) for alcohol consumption and multisite chronic pain as predictors of ad lib drinking behavior during an experimental taste test. PRSs were calculated for 209 pain-free, moderate-to-heavy drinkers (57.9% male; 63.6% White). Among White participants, the alcohol and chronic pain PRSs showed nominally significant (ps < .05) positive associations with the volume of alcohol consumed and peak blood alcohol concentration (BAC), respectively. However, associations did not survive correction for multiple comparisons. When stratifying results by experimental condition (between-subjects design: no-pain vs. pain), the alcohol PRS was significantly and negatively associated with the volume of alcohol poured, consumed, and peak BAC among Black participants randomized to the no-pain condition (all false discovery rate [FDR]p < .05). Conversely, the chronic pain PRS was significantly and positively associated with study outcomes among White participants in both the no-pain (alcohol consumed; FDRp = .037) and pain conditions (peak BAC; FDRp = .017). These findings lend partial support to the assertion that alcohol consumption in the laboratory is reflective of drinking behavior in naturalistic settings. This was also the first study to use a pain-related PRS to predict alcohol outcomes, which may be indicative of shared etiology between base and target traits. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2023 APA, all rights reserved).

BrainGENIE: The Brain Gene Expression and Network Imputation Engine.

In vivo experimental analysis of human brain tissue poses substantial challenges and ethical concerns. To address this problem, we developed a computational method called the Brain Gene Expression and Network-Imputation Engine (BrainGENIE) that leverages peripheral-blood transcriptomes to predict brain tissue-specific gene-expression levels. Paired blood-brain transcriptomic data collected by the Genotype-Tissue Expression (GTEx) Project was used to train BrainGENIE models to predict gene-expression levels in ten distinct brain regions using whole-blood gene-expression profiles. The performance of BrainGENIE was compared to PrediXcan, a popular method for imputing gene expression levels from genotypes. BrainGENIE significantly predicted brain tissue-specific expression levels for 2947-11,816 genes (false-discovery rate-adjusted p < 0.05), including many transcripts that cannot be predicted significantly by a transcriptome-imputation method such as PrediXcan. BrainGENIE recapitulated measured diagnosis-related gene-expression changes in the brain for autism, bipolar disorder, and schizophrenia better than direct correlations from blood and predictions from PrediXcan. We developed a convenient software toolset for deploying BrainGENIE, and provide recommendations for how best to implement models. BrainGENIE complements and, in some ways, outperforms existing transcriptome-imputation tools, providing biologically meaningful predictions and opening new research avenues.

Clinical Features of Genetic Resilience in Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease.

Introduction: In the personalized risk quantification of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), genome-wide association studies and polygenic risk scores (PRS) complement traditional risk factors, such as age and cigarette smoking. However, despite being at considerable levels of risk, some individuals do not develop COPD. Research on COPD resilience remains largely unexplored. Methods: We applied the previously published COPD PRS to whole genome sequencing data from non-Hispanic white and African American individuals in the COPDGene study. We defined genetic resilience as individuals unaffected by COPD with a polygenic risk score above the 90 th percentile. We defined risk-matched case individuals as those with COPD (i.e., FEV 1 /FVC < 0.70) and a PRS above the 90 th percentile. We defined low risk individuals without COPD (i.e., FEV 1 /FVC > 0.70) as a polygenic risk score below the 10 th percentile. We compared genetically resilient individuals to risk-matched individuals with COPD and low risk individuals by demographics, lung function, respiratory symptoms, co-morbidities, and chest CT scan measurements. We also performed survival analyses, differential expression analysis, and matching for sensitivity analyses. Results: We identified 211 resilient individuals without COPD, 605 genetic risk-matched individuals with COPD, and 527 low-risk individuals without COPD. Resilient individuals had higher FEV 1 % predicted and lower percent emphysema. In contrast, resilient individuals had higher airway wall thickness compared to low-risk unaffected individuals. While there was no difference in survival between low-risk and resilient individuals, resilient individuals had higher survival compared to risk matched cases. We also identified two genes that were differentially expressed between low-risk unaffected individuals and resilient individuals. Conclusion: Genetically resilient individuals had a reduced burden of COPD disease-related measures compared to risk-matched cases but had subtly increased measures compared to low-risk unaffected individuals. Further genetic studies will be needed to illuminate the underlying pathobiology of our observations.

Identifying Pediatric Mood Disorders From Transdiagnostic Polygenic Risk Scores: A Study of Children and Adolescents.

Objective: Mood disorders often co-occur with attention-deficit/hyperactive disorder (ADHD), disruptive behavior disorders (DBDs), and aggression. We aimed to determine if polygenic risk scores (PRSs) based on external genome-wide association studies (GWASs) of these disorders could improve genetic identification of mood disorders.Methods: We combined 6 independent family studies that had genetic data and diagnoses for mood disorders that were made using different editions of the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (DSM). We identified mood disorders, either concurrently or in the future, in participants between 6 and 17 years of age using PRSs calculated using summary statistics of GWASs for ADHD, ADHD with DBD, major depressive disorder (MDD), bipolar disorder (BPD), and aggression to compute PRSs.Results: In our sample of 485 youths, 356 (73%) developed a subthreshold or full mood disorder and 129 (27%) did not. The cross-validated mean areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUCs) for the 7 models identifying participants with any mood disorder ranged from 0.552 in the base model of age and sex to 0.648 in the base model + all 5 PRSs. When included in the base model individually, the ADHD PRS (OR = 1.65, P < .001), Aggression PRS (OR = 1.27, P = .02), and MDD PRS (OR = 1.23, P = .047) were significantly associated with the development of any mood disorder.Conclusions: Using PRSs for ADHD, MDD, BPD, DBDs, and aggression, we could modestly identify the presence of mood disorders. These findings extend evidence for transdiagnostic genetic components of psychiatric illness and demonstrate that PRSs calculated using traditional diagnostic boundaries can be useful within a transdiagnostic framework.

Polygenic resilience scores capture protective genetic effects for Alzheimer's disease.

Polygenic risk scores (PRSs) can boost risk prediction in late-onset Alzheimer's disease (LOAD) beyond apolipoprotein E (APOE) but have not been leveraged to identify genetic resilience factors. Here, we sought to identify resilience-conferring common genetic variants in (1) unaffected individuals having high PRSs for LOAD, and (2) unaffected APOE-ε4 carriers also having high PRSs for LOAD. We used genome-wide association study (GWAS) to contrast "resilient" unaffected individuals at the highest genetic risk for LOAD with LOAD cases at comparable risk. From GWAS results, we constructed polygenic resilience scores to aggregate the addictive contributions of risk-orthogonal common variants that promote resilience to LOAD. Replication of resilience scores was undertaken in eight independent studies. We successfully replicated two polygenic resilience scores that reduce genetic risk penetrance for LOAD. We also showed that polygenic resilience scores positively correlate with polygenic risk scores in unaffected individuals, perhaps aiding in staving off disease. Our findings align with the hypothesis that a combination of risk-independent common variants mediates resilience to LOAD by moderating genetic disease risk.

A seq2seq model to forecast the COVID-19 cases, deaths and reproductive R numbers in US counties.

The global pandemic of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has killed almost two million people worldwide and over 400 thousand in the United States (US). As the pandemic evolves, informed policy-making and strategic resource allocation relies on accurate forecasts. To predict the spread of the virus within US counties, we curated an array of county-level demographic and COVID-19-relevant health risk factors. In combination with the county-level case and death numbers curated by John Hopkins university, we developed a forecasting model using deep learning (DL). We implemented an autoencoder-based Seq2Seq model with gated recurrent units (GRUs) in the deep recurrent layers. We trained the model to predict future incident cases, deaths and the reproductive number, R. For most counties, it makes accurate predictions of new incident cases, deaths and R values, up to 30 days in the future. Our framework can also be used to predict other targets that are useful indices for policymaking, for example hospitalization or the occupancy of intensive care units. Our DL framework is publicly available on GitHub and can be adapted for other indices of the COVID-19 spread. We hope that our forecasts and model can help local governments in the continued fight against COVID-19.