RESUMO
BACKGROUND: Japan faces the most elderly society in the world, and the Japanese government has launched an unprecedented health plan to reinforce home care medicine and increase the number of home care physicians, which means that an understanding of future needs for geriatric home care is vital. However, little is known about the future need for home care physicians. We attempted to estimate the basic need for home care physicians from 2020 to 2060. METHODS: Our estimation is based on modification of major health work force analysis methods using previously reported official data. Two models were developed to estimate the necessary number of full-time equivalent (FTE) home care physicians: one based on home care patient mortality, the other using physician-to-patient ratio, working with estimated numbers of home and nursing home deaths from 2020 to 2060. Moreover, the final process considered and adjusted for future changes in the proportion of patients dying at home. Lastly, we converted estimated FTE physicians to an estimated head count. RESULTS: Results were concordant between our two models. In every instance, there was overlap of high- and low-estimations between the mortality method and the physician-to-patient method, and the estimates show highly similar patterns. Furthermore, our estimation is supported by the current number of physicians, which was calculated using a different method. Approximately 1.7 times (1.6 by head count) the current number of FTE home care physicians will be needed in Japan in the late 2030's, peaking at 33,500 FTE (71,500 head count). However, the need for home care physicians is anticipated to begin decreasing by 2040. CONCLUSION: The results indicate that the importance of home care physicians will rise with the growing elderly population, and that improvements in home care could partially suppress future need for physicians. After the late 2030's, the supply can be reduced gradually, accounting for the decreasing total number of deaths after 2040. In order to provide sufficient home care and terminal care at home, increasing the number of home care physicians is indispensable. However, the unregulated supply of home care physicians will require careful attention in the future.