Postglacial migration and adaptation for dispersal in pitch pine (Pinaceae).

PREMISE OF THE STUDY: Variation in a species is a blend of adaptive, random, and migratory responses. Pitch pine (Pinus rigida), a highly variable eastern conifer, has occupied multiple glacial refugia, whose harsh conditions favored adaptations enhancing subsequent dispersal and recolonization of newly deglaciated sites. We assessed phenotypic diversity in long-term growth trials to elucidate both the adaptations and likely refugia. METHODS: Pitch pine progeny from 31 areas were grown in common gardens in six locations, from eastern Massachusetts to Korea. KEY RESULTS: Survival increased with source latitude, but seedlings from southern latitudes were tallest in the first (postplanting) year, but that advantage dissipated in later years. Progeny from northern latitudes were precocious, highly fecund, had smaller seeds, and more seeds per cone. Seed mass decreased with latitude in both parents and progeny. Serotinous cones were notably common in the New Jersey Pine Plains and Acadia National Park. Various disease agents and frost burn exhibited latitudinal trends that were nonlinear, with a break in the regression slope at about 40°N latitude. Cluster analysis identified both northern and southern groups, largely split between unglaciated and deglaciated terrain, but with Acadia and the Pine Plains as unique outliers. Within the southern group, provenances were organized into contiguous subgroups, but geographic structure was less evident in the northern group. CONCLUSIONS: The present range of pitch pine was colonized by migrants from at least three different refugia, including at least one on the exposed continental shelf during the Last Glacial Maximum.

The evolution of the New Jersey Pine Plains.

PREMISE OF THE STUDY: Fire in the New Jersey Pine Plains has selectively maintained a dwarf growth form of pitch pine (Pinus rigida), which is distinct from the surrounding tall forest of the Pine Barrens and has several other inherited adaptations that enable it to survive in an environment dominated by fire. METHODS: Pitch pine progeny from two Pine Plains sites, the West and East Pine Plains, were grown in common garden environments with progeny from two Pine Barrens stands, Batsto and Great Egg Harbor River. The tests were replicated in five locations: in New Jersey, Connecticut, two sites in Massachusetts, and Korea. One of the tests was monitored for up to 36 yr. KEY RESULTS: Progeny of Pine Plains origin were, in general, shorter, more crooked, precocious, bore more cones, had a higher frequency of serotinous cones, and had a higher frequency of stem cones than did Pine Barrens progeny, wherever they were grown. CONCLUSIONS: The Pine Plains is an ecotype that has evolved in response to disturbance. The several characters that distinguish it from the surrounding tall forest of the Pine Barrens are inherited. The dwarf stature and crooked form not only enable the ecotype to persist in an environment of frequent fires but also increase its flammability.

Contrasting responses of woody and grassland ecosystems to increased CO2 as water supply varies.

Experiments show that elevated atmospheric CO2 (eCO2) often enhances plant photosynthesis and productivity, yet this effect varies substantially and may be climate sensitive. Understanding if, where and how water supply regulates CO2 enhancement is critical for projecting terrestrial responses to increasing atmospheric CO2 and climate change. Here, using data from 14 long-term ecosystem-scale CO2 experiments, we show that the eCO2 enhancement of annual aboveground net primary productivity is sensitive to annual precipitation and that this sensitivity differs between woody and grassland ecosystems. During wetter years, CO2 enhancement increases in woody ecosystems but declines in grass-dominated systems. Consistent with this difference, woody ecosystems can increase leaf area index in wetter years more effectively under eCO2 than can grassland ecosystems. Overall, and across different precipitation regimes, woody systems had markedly stronger CO2 enhancement (24%) than grasslands (13%). We developed an empirical relationship to quantify aboveground net primary productivity enhancement on the basis of changes in leaf area index, providing a new approach for evaluating eCO2 impacts on the productivity of terrestrial ecosystems.

Improved estimates of net primary productivity from modis satellite data at regional and local scales.

We compared estimates of net primary production (NPP) from the MODIS satellite with estimates from a forest ecosystem process model (PnET-CN) and forest inventory and analysis (FIA) data for forest types of the mid-Atlantic region of the United States. The regional means were similar for the three methods and for the dominant oak-hickory forests in the region. However, MODIS underestimated NPP for less-dominant northern hardwood forests and overestimated NPP for coniferous forests. Causes of inaccurate estimates of NPP by MODIS were (1) an aggregated classification and parameterization of diverse deciduous forests in different climatic environments into a single class that averages different radiation conversion efficiencies; and (2) lack of soil water constraints on NPP for forests or areas that occur on thin or sandy, coarse-grained soil. We developed the "available soil water index" for adjusting the MODIS NPP estimates, which significantly improved NPP estimates for coniferous forests. The MODIS NPP estimates have many advantages such as globally continuous monitoring and remarkable accuracy for large scales. However, at regional or local scales, our study indicates that it is necessary to adjust estimates to specific vegetation types and soil water conditions.

Missing Rings, Synchronous Growth, and Ecological Disturbance in a 36-Year Pitch Pine (Pinus rigida) Provenance Study.

Provenance studies are an increasingly important analog for understanding how trees adapted to particular climatic conditions might respond to climate change. Dendrochronological analysis can illuminate differences among trees from different seed sources in terms of absolute annual growth and sensitivity to external growth factors. We analyzed annual radial growth of 567 36-year-old pitch pine (Pinus rigida Mill.) trees from 27 seed sources to evaluate their performance in a New Jersey Pine Barrens provenance experiment. Unexpectedly, missing rings were prevalent in most trees, and some years-1992, 1999, and 2006-had a particularly high frequency of missing rings across the plantation. Trees from local seed sources (<55 km away from the plantation) had a significantly smaller percentage of missing rings from 1980-2009 (mean: 5.0%), relative to northernmost and southernmost sources (mean: 9.3% and 7.9%, respectively). Some years with a high frequency of missing rings coincide with outbreaks of defoliating insects or dry growing season conditions. The propensity for missing rings synchronized annual variations in growth across all trees and might have complicated the detection of potential differences in interannual variability among seed sources. Average ring width was significantly larger in seed sources from both the southernmost and warmest origins compared to the northernmost and coldest seed sources in most years. Local seed sources had the highest average radial growth. Adaptation to local environmental conditions and disturbances might have influenced the higher growth rate found in local seed sources. These findings underscore the need to understand the integrative impact of multiple environmental drivers, such as disturbance agents and climate change, on tree growth, forest dynamics, and the carbon cycle.

Multiple sampling for increasing the diagnostic sensitivity of nipple aspirate fluid for atypical cytology.

OBJECTIVE: To determine if repeated collection of nipple aspirate fluid (NAF) can improve the diagnostic sensitivity for cytologic atypia, a marker of increased risk of breast cancer. STUDY DESIGN: Two hundred sixty-seven women without known breast disease volunteered for NAF cytology at 5 6-month intervals over 2 years. NAF samples were prepared on Millipore filters (Millipore Filter Corp., Bedford, Massachusetts, U.S.A.) and stained with a modified Papanicolaou method. Fluid availability and cellular abnormalities were evaluated for each collection attempt. Cellular findings were classified as benign, hyperplasia or atypia. RESULTS: NAF was obtained from 178 women (66.6%) at the first visit and from an additional 15, 10, 2 and 4 women at visits 2, 3, 4 and 5, respectively, for a cumulative total of 78.2% by visit 5. The number of women yielding NAF containing hyperplastic or atypical epithelial cells was determined at each visit. Hyperplastic cells were found in 34 (19.1%) at visit 1 and in an additional 20, 10, 5 and 4 women at visits 2, 3, 4 and 5, respectively. Atypical epithelial cells were present in 12 (6.7%) women at the initial visit and in an additional 11, 7, 5 and 1 women at visits 2, 3, 4 and 5, respectively, for a cumulative percent of 18.2 at visit 5. NAF could not be obtained from 58 women at any visit. CONCLUSION: These findings suggest that an optimum collection method for NAF cytology should consist of at least 3 or 4 separate fluid aspiration attempts. Reviewing repeated multiple samples instead of 1 increases the number of women who can be evaluated and the likelihood of detecting cytologic atypia.

Predicted effects of gypsy moth defoliation and climate change on forest carbon dynamics in the New Jersey pine barrens.

Disturbance regimes within temperate forests can significantly impact carbon cycling. Additionally, projected climate change in combination with multiple, interacting disturbance effects may disrupt the capacity of forests to act as carbon sinks at large spatial and temporal scales. We used a spatially explicit forest succession and disturbance model, LANDIS-II, to model the effects of climate change, gypsy moth (Lymantria dispar L.) defoliation, and wildfire on the C dynamics of the forests of the New Jersey Pine Barrens over the next century. Climate scenarios were simulated using current climate conditions (baseline), as well as a high emissions scenario (HadCM3 A2 emissions scenario). Our results suggest that long-term changes in C cycling will be driven more by climate change than by fire or gypsy moths over the next century. We also found that simulated disturbances will affect species composition more than tree growth or C sequestration rates at the landscape level. Projected changes in tree species biomass indicate a potential increase in oaks with climate change and gypsy moth defoliation over the course of the 100-year simulation, exacerbating current successional trends towards increased oak abundance. Our research suggests that defoliation under climate change may play a critical role in increasing the variability of tree growth rates and in determining landscape species composition over the next 100 years.