Using the National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS) to predict the mortality and outcome of patients with intracerebral haemorrhage.

OBJECTIVES: To investigate whether the National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS) can be used to predict mortality and functional outcome in patients presenting with intracerebral haemorrhage. DESIGN: Retrospective study of a prospectively collected cohort. SETTING: Regional hospital, Hong Kong. PATIENTS: A cohort of 359 patients presented to our hospital from 1996 to 2001 with their first-ever stroke and intracerebral haemorrhage. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: The sensitivity and specificity of the NIHSS with a cut-off point of 20 in predicting mortality at 30 days and 5 years, and a favourable functional outcome at 5 years. RESULTS: A total of 359 patients were available for analysis and were divided into three subgroups according to the site and the size of the haematoma. The NIHSS can predict 30-day mortality with a sensitivity of 81% [corrected] and a specificity of 90% [corrected] The NIHSS can predict 5-year mortality with a sensitivity of 57% [corrected] and a specificity of 92% [corrected] In predicting favourable functional outcomes at 5 years, the NIHSS had a sensitivity of 98% [corrected] and a specificity of 16% [corrected] CONCLUSIONS: The NIHSS performed on admission can be used to predict mortality at 30 days and 5 years as well as favourable functional outcome at 5 years, all with an acceptable sensitivity and specificity.

Outcomes after first-ever stroke.

OBJECTIVES: To determine the outcomes after first-ever stroke, including mortality, dependence, and recurrence. DESIGN: Retrospective study on a prospectively collected cohort. SETTING: Regional hospital, Hong Kong. PATIENTS: A cohort of 755 patients presented to our hospital from 1996 to 1998 with their first-ever stroke. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Mortality and stroke recurrence rate at 30 days, 1 year, and 5 years from the onset of the stroke. Dependence in activity of daily living at 5 years from the onset of stroke. RESULTS: The mortality rate was 15.1% at 30 days, 22.5% at 1 year, and 39.7% at 5 years from the onset of the first-ever stroke. The rate of stroke recurrence was 0.9% at 30 days, 7.0% at 1 year, and 21.2% at 5 years from the onset of first-ever stroke. Among patients presenting with ischaemic strokes, 109 (20.6%) had a recurrence, of which 92 (84%) were ischaemic strokes and 17 (16%) were haemorrhagic. Among patients presenting with intracerebral haemorrhage, 25 (23.1%) had a recurrence, of which 12 (48%) were haemorrhagic strokes and 13 (52%) patients were ischaemic. After 5 years, 11% of the patients were dependent in terms of activity of daily living. CONCLUSIONS: The long-term prognosis after first-ever stroke is poor--5 years after their stroke, 39.7% of patients had died and 10.7% were dependent in terms of activity of daily living; 136 (21%) who survived at least 30 days after the initial stroke, had a recurrence within 5 years.

Long-term prognostic implications of visit-to-visit blood pressure variability in patients with ischemic stroke.

BACKGROUND: Blood pressure (BP) variability (BPV) is a novel risk factor for the development of atherosclerotic diseases. High BPV has recently been shown to predict all-cause and cardiovascular mortality in patients with lacunar infarct. Whether BPV has prognostic implications in patients with ischemic stroke subtypes, other than those due to small-vessel occlusion, remains uncertain. METHODS: We prospectively followed up the clinical outcome of 632 consecutive ischemic stroke patients without atrial fibrillation. The average BP and BPV, as determined by the coefficient of variation of the systolic and diastolic BP, were recorded during a mean 12 ± 6 outpatient clinic visits. RESULTS: The average age of the population was 71 ± 11 years. After a mean of 76 ± 18 months of follow-up, 161 patients died (26%); 35% (n = 56 of 161) of these deaths were due to cardiovascular causes. Sixteen percent and 5% developed recurrent stroke and acute coronary syndrome (ACS), respectively. After adjusting for mean systolic BP and confounding variables, patients with high systolic BPV were at significantly greater risk of cardiovascular mortality (hazards ratio (HR) = 2.36; 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.02-5.49; P < 0.05). High systolic BPV also predicted all-cause mortality after adjusting for mean systolic BP (HR = 1.79; 95% CI = 1.16-2.75; P < 0.05). There was no association between systolic BPV and nonfatal recurrent stroke or nonfatal ACS. Raised diastolic BPV did not predict recurrent nonfatal stroke, nonfatal ACS, or mortality. CONCLUSIONS: Visit-to-visit systolic BPV predicts long-term all-cause and cardiovascular mortality in patients with ischemic stroke without atrial fibrillation, independent of other conventional risk factors, including average BP control.