Persistent elevation in incidence of pneumonia in children in England, 2023/24.

Since November 2023, the absolute number of attendances at emergency departments for pneumonia among children aged 5-14 years in England have been above expected levels for the time of year. This increased signal peaked during March 2024 but then persisted into early summer 2024 despite decreases in prevalence of seasonal respiratory pathogens. Record linkage between emergency department and laboratory databases points to this unusual activity being driven largely by Mycoplasma pneumoniae.

Comparative analysis of the risks of hospitalisation and death associated with SARS-CoV-2 omicron (B.1.1.529) and delta (B.1.617.2) variants in England: a cohort study.

BACKGROUND: The omicron variant (B.1.1.529) of SARS-CoV-2 has demonstrated partial vaccine escape and high transmissibility, with early studies indicating lower severity of infection than that of the delta variant (B.1.617.2). We aimed to better characterise omicron severity relative to delta by assessing the relative risk of hospital attendance, hospital admission, or death in a large national cohort. METHODS: Individual-level data on laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 cases resident in England between Nov 29, 2021, and Jan 9, 2022, were linked to routine datasets on vaccination status, hospital attendance and admission, and mortality. The relative risk of hospital attendance or admission within 14 days, or death within 28 days after confirmed infection, was estimated using proportional hazards regression. Analyses were stratified by test date, 10-year age band, ethnicity, residential region, and vaccination status, and were further adjusted for sex, index of multiple deprivation decile, evidence of a previous infection, and year of age within each age band. A secondary analysis estimated variant-specific and vaccine-specific vaccine effectiveness and the intrinsic relative severity of omicron infection compared with delta (ie, the relative risk in unvaccinated cases). FINDINGS: The adjusted hazard ratio (HR) of hospital attendance (not necessarily resulting in admission) with omicron compared with delta was 0·56 (95% CI 0·54-0·58); for hospital admission and death, HR estimates were 0·41 (0·39-0·43) and 0·31 (0·26-0·37), respectively. Omicron versus delta HR estimates varied with age for all endpoints examined. The adjusted HR for hospital admission was 1·10 (0·85-1·42) in those younger than 10 years, decreasing to 0·25 (0·21-0·30) in 60-69-year-olds, and then increasing to 0·47 (0·40-0·56) in those aged at least 80 years. For both variants, past infection gave some protection against death both in vaccinated (HR 0·47 [0·32-0·68]) and unvaccinated (0·18 [0·06-0·57]) cases. In vaccinated cases, past infection offered no additional protection against hospital admission beyond that provided by vaccination (HR 0·96 [0·88-1·04]); however, for unvaccinated cases, past infection gave moderate protection (HR 0·55 [0·48-0·63]). Omicron versus delta HR estimates were lower for hospital admission (0·30 [0·28-0·32]) in unvaccinated cases than the corresponding HR estimated for all cases in the primary analysis. Booster vaccination with an mRNA vaccine was highly protective against hospitalisation and death in omicron cases (HR for hospital admission 8-11 weeks post-booster vs unvaccinated: 0·22 [0·20-0·24]), with the protection afforded after a booster not being affected by the vaccine used for doses 1 and 2. INTERPRETATION: The risk of severe outcomes following SARS-CoV-2 infection is substantially lower for omicron than for delta, with higher reductions for more severe endpoints and significant variation with age. Underlying the observed risks is a larger reduction in intrinsic severity (in unvaccinated individuals) counterbalanced by a reduction in vaccine effectiveness. Documented previous SARS-CoV-2 infection offered some protection against hospitalisation and high protection against death in unvaccinated individuals, but only offered additional protection in vaccinated individuals for the death endpoint. Booster vaccination with mRNA vaccines maintains over 70% protection against hospitalisation and death in breakthrough confirmed omicron infections. FUNDING: Medical Research Council, UK Research and Innovation, Department of Health and Social Care, National Institute for Health Research, Community Jameel, and Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council.

Model-based evaluation of admission screening strategies for the detection and control of carbapenemase-producing Enterobacterales in the English hospital setting.

BACKGROUND: Globally, detections of carbapenemase-producing Enterobacterales (CPE) colonisations and infections are increasing. The spread of these highly resistant bacteria poses a serious threat to public health. However, understanding of CPE transmission and evidence on effectiveness of control measures is severely lacking. This paper provides evidence to inform effective admission screening protocols, which could be important in controlling nosocomial CPE transmission. METHODS: CPE transmission within an English hospital setting was simulated with a data-driven individual-based mathematical model. This model was used to evaluate the ability of the 2016 England CPE screening recommendations, and of potential alternative protocols, to identify patients with CPE-colonisation on admission (including those colonised during previous stays or from elsewhere). The model included nosocomial transmission from colonised and infected patients, as well as environmental contamination. Model parameters were estimated using primary data where possible, including estimation of transmission using detailed epidemiological data within a Bayesian framework. Separate models were parameterised to represent hospitals in English areas with low and high CPE risk (based on prevalence). RESULTS: The proportion of truly colonised admissions which met the 2016 screening criteria was 43% in low-prevalence and 54% in high-prevalence areas respectively. Selection of CPE carriers for screening was improved in low-prevalence areas by adding readmission as a screening criterion, which doubled how many colonised admissions were selected. A minority of CPE carriers were confirmed as CPE positive during their hospital stay (10 and 14% in low- and high-prevalence areas); switching to a faster screening test pathway with a single-swab test (rather than three swab regimen) increased the overall positive predictive value with negligible reduction in negative predictive value. CONCLUSIONS: Using a novel within-hospital CPE transmission model, this study assesses CPE admission screening protocols, across the range of CPE prevalence observed in England. It identifies protocol changes-adding readmissions to screening criteria and a single-swab test pathway-which could detect similar numbers of CPE carriers (or twice as many in low CPE prevalence areas), but faster, and hence with lower demand on pre-emptive infection-control resources. Study findings can inform interventions to control this emerging threat, although further work is required to understand within-hospital transmission sources.

Reporting England's progress towards the ambitions in the UK action plan for antimicrobial resistance: the English surveillance programme for antimicrobial utilisation and resistance (ESPAUR).

The plans for a new antimicrobial utilization and resistance national surveillance programme, alongside the development of quality measures and methods to monitor unintended outcomes of antimicrobial stewardship and both public and professional behaviour interventions were published in 2013. Since then, England has published an annual surveillance report including outlining progress against the ambitions of the UK national action plans on antimicrobial resistance (2013 to 2018 and 2019 to 2024). A decade later we provide a brief update on progress so far, with a focus on key highlights from the latest report published in November 2022. We also provide our recommendations for areas of focus as we move into the next decade. From an initial focus on antibiotic consumption and resistance, the report now includes surveillance data for antifungals, antivirals (including novel agents, such as those targeting SARS-CoV-2) and antimalarials. Evaluation of key stewardship interventions including professional and public engagement initiatives are also reported, as well as progress against NHS England's (NHSE's) improvement measures.

Attribution of nosocomial seeding to long-term care facility COVID-19 outbreaks.

Residents of long-term care facilities (LTCFs) were disproportionately affected by the COVID-19 pandemic. We assessed the extent to which hospital-associated infections contributed to COVID-19 LTCF outbreaks in England. We matched addresses of cases between March 2020 and June 2021 to reference databases to identify LTCF residents. Linkage to health service records identified hospital-associated infections, with the number of days spent in hospital before positive specimen date used to classify these as definite or probable. Of 149,129 cases in LTCF residents during the study period, 3,748 (2.5%) were definite or probable hospital-associated and discharged to an LTCF. Overall, 431 (0.3%) were identified as index cases of potentially nosocomial-seeded outbreaks (2.7% (431/15,797) of all identified LTCF outbreaks). These outbreaks involved 4,521 resident cases and 1,335 deaths, representing 3.0% and 3.6% of all cases and deaths in LTCF residents, respectively. The proportion of outbreaks that were potentially nosocomial-seeded peaked in late June 2020, early December 2020, mid-January 2021, and mid-April 2021. Nosocomial seeding contributed to COVID-19 LTCF outbreaks but is unlikely to have accounted for a substantial proportion. The continued identification of such outbreaks after the implementation of preventative policies highlights the challenges of preventing their occurrence.

Risk of severe outcomes among Omicron sub-lineages BA.4.6, BA.2.75, and BQ.1 compared to BA.5 in England.

Since the emergence of Omicron variant of SARS-CoV-2 in late 2021, a number of sub-lineages have arisen and circulated internationally. Little is known about the relative severity of Omicron sub-lineages BA.2.75, BA.4.6, and BQ.1. We undertook a case-control analysis to determine the clinical severity of these lineages relative to BA.5, using whole genome sequenced, PCR-confirmed infections, between 1 August 2022 and 27 November 2022, among those who presented to emergency care in England 14 days after and up to one day prior to the positive specimen. A total of 10,375 episodes were included in the analysis; of which, 5,207 (50.2%) were admitted to the hospital or died. Multivariable conditional regression analyses found no evidence of greater odds of hospital admission or death among those with BA.2.75 (odds ratio (OR) = 0.96, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.84-1.09) and BA.4.6 (OR = 1.02, 95% CI: 0.88- 1.17) or BQ.1 (OR = 1.03, 95% CI: 0.94-1.13) compared to BA.5. Future lineages may not follow the same trend and there remains a need for continued surveillance of COVID-19 variants and their clinical outcomes to inform the public health response.

Changing Patterns of Bloodstream Infections in the Community and Acute Care Across 2 Coronavirus Disease 2019 Epidemic Waves: A Retrospective Analysis Using Data Linkage.

BACKGROUND: We examined community- and hospital-acquired bloodstream infections (BSIs) in coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and non-COVID-19 patients across 2 epidemic waves. METHODS: We analyzed blood cultures of patients presenting to a London hospital group between January 2020 and February 2021. We reported BSI incidence, changes in sampling, case mix, healthcare capacity, and COVID-19 variants. RESULTS: We identified 1047 BSIs from 34 044 blood cultures, including 653 (62.4%) community-acquired and 394 (37.6%) hospital-acquired. Important pattern changes were seen. Community-acquired Escherichia coli BSIs remained below prepandemic level during COVID-19 waves, but peaked following lockdown easing in May 2020, deviating from the historical trend of peaking in August. The hospital-acquired BSI rate was 100.4 per 100 000 patient-days across the pandemic, increasing to 132.3 during the first wave and 190.9 during the second, with significant increase in elective inpatients. Patients with a hospital-acquired BSI, including those without COVID-19, experienced 20.2 excess days of hospital stay and 26.7% higher mortality, higher than reported in prepandemic literature. In intensive care, the BSI rate was 421.0 per 100 000 intensive care unit patient-days during the second wave, compared to 101.3 pre-COVID-19. The BSI incidence in those infected with the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 Alpha variant was similar to that seen with earlier variants. CONCLUSIONS: The pandemic have impacted the patterns of community- and hospital-acquired BSIs, in COVID-19 and non-COVID-19 patients. Factors driving the patterns are complex. Infection surveillance needs to consider key aspects of pandemic response and changes in healthcare practice.

Exploring temporal trends and risk factors for resistance in Escherichia coli-causing bacteraemia in England between 2013 and 2018: an ecological study.

BACKGROUND: Escherichia coli are Gram-negative bacteria associated with an increasing burden of antimicrobial resistance (AMR) in England. OBJECTIVES: To create a comprehensive epidemiological picture of E. coli bacteraemia resistance trends and risk factors in England by linking national microbiology data sources and performing a longitudinal analysis of rates. METHODS: A retrospective observational study was conducted on all national records for antimicrobial susceptibility testing on E. coli bacteraemia in England from 1 January 2013 to 31 December 2018 from the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) and the BSAC Resistance Surveillance Programme (BSAC-RSP). Trends in AMR and MDR were estimated using iterative sequential regression. Logistic regression analyses were performed on UKHSA data to estimate the relationship between risk factors and AMR or MDR in E. coli bacteraemia isolates. RESULTS: An increase in resistance rates was observed in community- and hospital-onset bacteraemia for third-generation cephalosporins, co-amoxiclav, gentamicin and ciprofloxacin. Among community-acquired cases, and after adjustment for other factors, patients aged >65 years were more likely to be infected by E. coli isolates resistant to at least one of 11 antibiotics than those aged 18-64 years (OR: 1.21, 95% CI: 1.18-1.25; P < 0.05). In hospital-onset cases, E. coli isolates from those aged 1-17 years were more likely to be resistant than those aged 18-64 years (OR: 1.33, 95% CI: 1.02-1.73; P < 0.05). CONCLUSIONS: Antibiotic resistance rates in E. coli-causing bacteraemia increased between 2013 and 2018 in England for key antimicrobial agents. Findings of this study have implications for guiding future policies on a prescribing of antimicrobial agents, for specific patient populations in particular.

Impact of introducing procalcitonin testing on antibiotic usage in acute NHS hospitals during the first wave of COVID-19 in the UK: a controlled interrupted time series analysis of organization-level data.

BACKGROUND: Blood biomarkers have the potential to help identify COVID-19 patients with bacterial coinfection in whom antibiotics are indicated. During the COVID-19 pandemic, procalcitonin testing was widely introduced at hospitals in the UK to guide antibiotic prescribing. We have determined the impact of this on hospital-level antibiotic consumption. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective, controlled interrupted time series analysis of organization-level data describing antibiotic dispensing, hospital activity and procalcitonin testing for acute hospitals/hospital trusts in England and Wales during the first wave of COVID-19 (24 February to 5 July 2020). RESULTS: In the main analysis of 105 hospitals in England, introduction of procalcitonin testing in emergency departments/acute medical admission units was associated with a statistically significant decrease in total antibiotic use of -1.08 (95% CI: -1.81 to -0.36) DDDs of antibiotic per admission per week per trust. This effect was then lost at a rate of 0.05 (95% CI: 0.02-0.08) DDDs per admission per week. Similar results were found specifically for first-line antibiotics for community-acquired pneumonia and for COVID-19 admissions rather than all admissions. Introduction of procalcitonin in the ICU setting was not associated with any significant change in antibiotic use. CONCLUSIONS: At hospitals where procalcitonin testing was introduced in emergency departments/acute medical units this was associated with an initial, but unsustained, reduction in antibiotic use. Further research should establish the patient-level impact of procalcitonin testing in this population and understand its potential for clinical effectiveness.

Estimation of the impact of hospital-onset SARS-CoV-2 infections on length of stay in English hospitals using causal inference.

BACKGROUND: From March 2020 through August 2021, 97,762 hospital-onset SARS-CoV-2 infections were detected in English hospitals. Resulting excess length of stay (LoS) created a potentially substantial health and economic burden for patients and the NHS, but we are currently unaware of any published studies estimating this excess. METHODS: We implemented appropriate causal inference methods to determine the extent to which observed additional hospital stay is attributable to the infection rather than the characteristics of the patients. Hospital admissions records were linked to SARS-CoV-2 test data to establish the study population (7.5 million) of all non-COVID-19 admissions to English hospitals from 1st March 2020 to 31st August 2021 with a stay of at least two days. The excess LoS due to hospital-onset SARS-CoV-2 infection was estimated as the difference between the mean LoS observed and in the counterfactual where infections do not occur. We used inverse probability weighted Kaplan-Meier curves to estimate the mean survival time if all hospital-onset SARS-CoV-2 infections were to be prevented, the weights being based on the daily probability of acquiring an infection. The analysis was carried out for four time periods, reflecting phases of the pandemic differing with respect to overall case numbers, testing policies, vaccine rollout and prevalence of variants. RESULTS: The observed mean LoS of hospital-onset cases was higher than for non-COVID-19 hospital patients by 16, 20, 13 and 19 days over the four phases, respectively. However, when the causal inference approach was used to appropriately adjust for time to infection and confounding, the estimated mean excess LoS caused by hospital-onset SARS-CoV-2 was: 2.0 [95% confidence interval 1.8-2.2] days (Mar-Jun 2020), 1.4 [1.2-1.6] days (Sep-Dec 2020); 0.9 [0.7-1.1] days (Jan-Apr 2021); 1.5 [1.1-1.9] days (May-Aug 2021). CONCLUSIONS: Hospital-onset SARS-CoV-2 is associated with a small but notable excess LoS, equivalent to 130,000 bed days. The comparatively high LoS observed for hospital-onset COVID-19 patients is mostly explained by the timing of their infections relative to admission. Failing to account for confounding and time to infection leads to overestimates of additional length of stay and therefore overestimates costs of infections, leading to inaccurate evaluations of control strategies.

The contribution of hospital-acquired infections to the COVID-19 epidemic in England in the first half of 2020.

BACKGROUND: SARS-CoV-2 is known to transmit in hospital settings, but the contribution of infections acquired in hospitals to the epidemic at a national scale is unknown. METHODS: We used comprehensive national English datasets to determine the number of COVID-19 patients with identified hospital-acquired infections (with symptom onset > 7 days after admission and before discharge) in acute English hospitals up to August 2020. As patients may leave the hospital prior to detection of infection or have rapid symptom onset, we combined measures of the length of stay and the incubation period distribution to estimate how many hospital-acquired infections may have been missed. We used simulations to estimate the total number (identified and unidentified) of symptomatic hospital-acquired infections, as well as infections due to onward community transmission from missed hospital-acquired infections, to 31st July 2020. RESULTS: In our dataset of hospitalised COVID-19 patients in acute English hospitals with a recorded symptom onset date (n = 65,028), 7% were classified as hospital-acquired. We estimated that only 30% (range across weeks and 200 simulations: 20-41%) of symptomatic hospital-acquired infections would be identified, with up to 15% (mean, 95% range over 200 simulations: 14.1-15.8%) of cases currently classified as community-acquired COVID-19 potentially linked to hospital transmission. We estimated that 26,600 (25,900 to 27,700) individuals acquired a symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection in an acute Trust in England before 31st July 2020, resulting in 15,900 (15,200-16,400) or 20.1% (19.2-20.7%) of all identified hospitalised COVID-19 cases. CONCLUSIONS: Transmission of SARS-CoV-2 to hospitalised patients likely caused approximately a fifth of identified cases of hospitalised COVID-19 in the "first wave" in England, but less than 1% of all infections in England. Using time to symptom onset from admission for inpatients as a detection method likely misses a substantial proportion (> 60%) of hospital-acquired infections.

Assessment of mortality and hospital admissions associated with confirmed infection with SARS-CoV-2 Alpha variant: a matched cohort and time-to-event analysis, England, October to December 2020.

BackgroundThe emergence of the SARS-CoV-2 Alpha variant in England coincided with a rapid increase in the number of PCR-confirmed COVID-19 cases in areas where the variant was concentrated.AimOur aim was to assess whether infection with Alpha was associated with more severe clinical outcomes than the wild type.MethodsLaboratory-confirmed infections with genomically sequenced SARS-CoV-2 Alpha and wild type between October and December 2020 were linked to routine healthcare and surveillance datasets. We conducted two statistical analyses to compare the risk of hospital admission and death within 28 days of testing between Alpha and wild-type infections: a matched cohort study and an adjusted Cox proportional hazards model. We assessed differences in disease severity by comparing hospital admission and mortality, including length of hospitalisation and time to death.ResultsOf 63,609 COVID-19 cases sequenced in England between October and December 2020, 6,038 had the Alpha variant. In the matched cohort analysis, we matched 2,821 cases with Alpha to 2,821 to cases with wild type. In the time-to-event analysis, we observed a 34% increased risk in hospitalisation associated with Alpha compared with wild type, but no significant difference in the risk of mortality.ConclusionWe found evidence of increased risk of hospitalisation after adjusting for key confounders, suggesting increased infection severity associated with the Alpha variant. Rapid assessments of the relative morbidity in terms of clinical outcomes and mortality associated with emerging SARS-CoV-2 variants compared with dominant variants are required to assess overall impact of SARS-CoV-2 mutations.

Prospective genomic surveillance of methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) associated with bloodstream infection, England, 1 October 2012 to 30 September 2013.

BackgroundMandatory reporting of methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) bloodstream infections (BSI) has occurred in England for over 15years. Epidemiological information is recorded, but routine collection of isolates for characterisation has not been routinely undertaken. Ongoing developments in whole-genome sequencing (WGS) have demonstrated its value in outbreak investigations and for determining the spread of antimicrobial resistance and bacterial population structure. Benefits of adding genomics to routine epidemiological MRSA surveillance are unknown.AimTo determine feasibility and potential utility of adding genomics to epidemiological surveillance of MRSA.MethodsWe conducted an epidemiological and genomic survey of MRSA BSI in England over a 1-year period (1 October 2012--30 September 2013).ResultsDuring the study period, 903 cases of MRSA BSI were reported; 425 isolates were available for sequencing of which, 276 (65%) were clonal complex (CC) 22. Addition of 64 MRSA genomes from published outbreak investigations showed that the study genomes could provide context for outbreak isolates and supported cluster identification. Comparison to other MRSA genome collections demonstrated variation in clonal diversity achieved through different sampling strategies and identified potentially high-risk clones e.g. USA300 and local expansion of CC5 MRSA in South West England.ConclusionsWe demonstrate the potential utility of combined epidemiological and genomic MRSA BSI surveillance to determine the national population structure of MRSA, contextualise previous MRSA outbreaks, and detect potentially high-risk lineages. These findings support the integration of epidemiological and genomic surveillance for MRSA BSI as a step towards a comprehensive surveillance programme in England.

Clinical and Molecular Epidemiology of Staphylococcal Toxic Shock Syndrome in the United Kingdom.

Staphylococcal toxic shock syndrome (TSS) was originally described in menstruating women and linked to TSS toxin 1 (TSST-1)-producing Staphylococcus aureus. Using UK national surveillance data, we ascertained clinical, molecular and superantigenic characteristics of TSS cases. Average annual TSS incidence was 0.07/100,000 population. Patients with nonmenstrual TSS were younger than those with menstrual TSS but had the same mortality rate. Children <16 years of age accounted for 39% of TSS cases, most caused by burns and skin and soft tissue infections. Nonmenstrual TSS is now more common than menstrual TSS in the UK, although both types are strongly associated with the tst+ clonal complex (CC) 30 methicillin-sensitive S. aureus lineage, which accounted for 49.4% of all TSS and produced more TSST-1 and superantigen bioactivity than did tst+ CC30 methicillin-resistant S. aureus strains. Better understanding of this MSSA lineage and infections in children could focus interventions to prevent TSS in the future.

Improving feedback of surveillance data on antimicrobial consumption, resistance and stewardship in England: putting the data at your Fingertips.

The provision of better access to and use of surveillance data is a key component of the UK 5 Year Antimicrobial Resistance (AMR) Strategy. Since April 2016, PHE has made data on practice (infection prevention and control; antimicrobial stewardship) and outcome (prevalence of AMR, antibiotic use and healthcare-associated infections) available through Fingertips, a publicly accessible web tool (https://fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/amr-local-indicators). Fingertips provides access to a wide range of public health data presented as thematic profiles, with the above data being available through the 'AMR local indicators' profile. Local data on a range of indicators can be viewed at the level of National Health Service acute trusts, Clinical Commissioning Groups or general practitioner practices, all of which can be compared with the corresponding aggregate values for England to allow benchmarking. The data can be viewed in a range of formats including an overview showing counts and rates, interactive maps, spine charts and graphs that show temporal trends over a range of time scales or allow correlations between pairs of indicators. The aim of the AMR local indicators profile on Fingertips is to support the development of local action plans to optimize antibiotic prescribing and reduce AMR and healthcare-associated infections. Provision of access to relevant information in an easy to use format will help local stakeholders, including healthcare staff, commissioners, Directors of Public Health, academics and the public, to benchmark relevant local AMR data and to monitor the impact of local initiatives to tackle AMR over time.

Descriptive epidemiology of Escherichia coli bacteraemia in England, April 2012 to March 2014.

We determined the incidence, risk factors and antimicrobial susceptibility associated with Escherichia coli bacteraemia in England over a 24 month period. Case data were obtained from the national mandatory surveillance database, with susceptibility data linked from LabBase2, a voluntary national microbiology database. Between April 2012 and March 2014, 66,512 E. coli bacteraemia cases were reported. Disease incidence increased by 6% from 60.4 per 100,000 population in 2012-13 to 63.5 per 100,000 population in 2013-14 (p < 0.0001). Rates of E. coli bacteraemia varied with patient age and sex, with 70.5% (46,883/66,512) of cases seen in patients aged ≥ 65 years and 52.4% (33,969/64,846) of cases in females. The most common underlying cause of bacteraemia was infection of the genital/urinary tract (41.1%; 27,328/66,512), of which 98.4% (26,891/27,328) were urinary tract infections (UTIs). The majority of cases (76.1%; 50,617/66,512) had positive blood cultures before or within two days of admission and were classified as community onset cases, however 15.7% (10,468/66,512) occurred in patients who had been hospitalised for over a week. Non-susceptibility to ciprofloxacin, third-generation cephalosporins, piperacillin-tazobactam, gentamicin and carbapenems were 18.4% (8,439/45,829), 10.4% (4,256/40,734), 10.2% (4,694/46,186), 9.7% (4,770/49,114) and 0.2% (91/42,986), respectively. Antibiotic non-susceptibility was higher in hospital-onset cases than for those presenting from the community (e.g. ciprofloxacin non-susceptibility was 22.1% (2,234/10,105) for hospital-onset vs 17.4% (5,920/34,069) for community-onset cases). Interventions to reduce the incidence of E. coli bacteraemia will have to target the community setting and UTIs if substantial reductions are to be realised.

Klebsiella pneumoniae sequence type 147: a high-risk clone increasingly associated with plasmids carrying both resistance and virulence elements.

Introduction. The first hybrid resistance/virulence plasmid, combining elements from virulence plasmids described in hypervirulent types of Klebsiella pneumoniae with those from conjugative resistance plasmids, was described in an isolate of sequence type (ST) 147 from 2016. Subsequently, this type has been increasingly associated with these plasmids.Hypothesis or gap statement. The extent of carriage of hybrid virulence/resistance plasmids in nosocomial isolates of K. pneumoniae requires further investigation.Aim. To describe the occurrence of virulence/resistance plasmids among isolates of K. pneumoniae received by the UK reference laboratory, particularly among representatives of ST147, and to compare their sequences.Methodology. Isolates received by the laboratory during 2022 and the first half of 2023 (n=1278) were screened for virulence plasmids by PCR detection of rmpA/rmpA2 and typed by variable-number tandem repeat analysis. Twenty-nine representatives of ST147 (including a single-locus variant) from seven hospital laboratories were subjected to long-read nanopore sequencing using high-accuracy q20 chemistry to provide complete assemblies.Results. rmpA/rmpA2 were detected in 110 isolates, of which 59 belonged to hypervirulent K1-ST23, K2-ST86 and K2-ST65/375. Of the remainder, representatives of ST147 formed the largest group, with 22 rmpA/rmpA2-positive representatives (out of 47 isolates). Representatives were from 19 hospital laboratories, with rmpA/rmpA2-positive isolates from 10. Nanopore sequencing of 29 representatives of ST147 divided them into those with no virulence plasmid (n=12), those with non-New Delhi metallo-ß-lactamase (NDM) virulence plasmids (n=6) and those carrying bla NDM-5 (n=9) or bla NDM-1 (n=2) virulence plasmids. These plasmids were of IncFIB(pNDM-Mar)/IncHI1B(pNDM-MAR) replicon types. Most of the non-NDM virulence plasmids were highly similar to the originally described KpvST147L_NDM plasmid. Those carrying bla NDM-5 were highly similar to one another and to previously described plasmids in ST383 and carried an extensive array of resistance genes. Comparison of the fully assembled chromosomes indicated multiple introductions of ST147 in UK hospitals.Conclusion. This study highlights the high proportion of representatives of ST147 that carry IncFIB(pNDM-Mar)/IncHI1B(pNDM-MAR) hybrid resistance virulence plasmids. It is important to be aware of the high probability that representatives of this type carry these plasmids combining resistance and virulence determinants and of the consequent increased risk to patients.

Increased 30-day all-cause mortality associated with Gram-negative bloodstream infections in England during the COVID-19 pandemic.

BACKGROUND: Our aim was to assess the impact of COVID-19 pandemic on mortality in patients hospitalised with Gram-negative bloodstream infections (GNBSIs). METHODS: A retrospective cohort study including cases of Escherichia coli, Klebsiella species and Pseudomonas aeruginosa in England (January 2015-December 2021) reported to UKHSA's Second Generation Surveillance System. The outcome was 30-day all-cause mortality. Multivariable logistic regression models were built, and adjusted Odds Ratios (ORs) with 95% confidence intervals were reported. RESULTS: Total E. coli, Klebsiella spp. and P. aeruginosa infections were 206,030, 53,819 and 21,129, respectively. Compared to the pre-pandemic period, odds of death during the pandemic (March 2020 onwards) in E. coli, Klebsiella spp. and P. aeruginosa infections with no COVID-19 infection within 28-days of onset were 1.13 (1.08-1.18), 1.15 (1.07-1.25) and 1.09 (0.97-1.22), while odds in GNBSIs with an associated COVID-19 infection were 2.45 (2.26-2.66), 2.96 (2.62-3.34) and 3.15 (2.61-3.80), respectively. Asian patients with an associated COVID-19 infection were more likely to die during the pandemic compared to White patients (E. coli: OR 1.28 (0.95-1.71); Klebsiella spp. OR 1.59 (1.20-2.11); P. aeruginosa: OR 2.02 (1.23-3.31)). CONCLUSIONS: Patients suffering from a GNBSI had increased risk of death during the pandemic, with the risk higher in patients with an associated COVID-19 infection.

Predicting future hospital antimicrobial resistance prevalence using machine learning.

BACKGROUND: Predicting antimicrobial resistance (AMR), a top global health threat, nationwide at an aggregate hospital level could help target interventions. Using machine learning, we exploit historical AMR and antimicrobial usage to predict future AMR. METHODS: Antimicrobial use and AMR prevalence in bloodstream infections in hospitals in England were obtained per hospital group (Trust) and financial year (FY, April-March) for 22 pathogen-antibiotic combinations (FY2016-2017 to FY2021-2022). Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) model predictions were compared to the previous value taken forwards, the difference between the previous two years taken forwards and linear trend forecasting (LTF). XGBoost feature importances were calculated to aid interpretability. RESULTS: Here we show that XGBoost models achieve the best predictive performance. Relatively limited year-to-year variability in AMR prevalence within Trust-pathogen-antibiotic combinations means previous value taken forwards also achieves a low mean absolute error (MAE), similar to or slightly higher than XGBoost. Using the difference between the previous two years taken forward or LTF performs consistently worse. XGBoost considerably outperforms all other methods in Trusts with a larger change in AMR prevalence from FY2020-2021 (last training year) to FY2021-2022 (held-out test set). Feature importance values indicate that besides historical resistance to the same pathogen-antibiotic combination as the outcome, complex relationships between resistance in different pathogens to the same antibiotic/antibiotic class and usage are exploited for predictions. These are generally among the top ten features ranked according to their mean absolute SHAP values. CONCLUSIONS: Year-to-year resistance has generally changed little within Trust-pathogen-antibiotic combinations. In those with larger changes, XGBoost models can improve predictions, enabling informed decisions, efficient resource allocation, and targeted interventions.

Antibiotics play an important role in treating serious bacterial infections. However, with the increased usage of antibiotics, they are becoming less effective. In our study, we use machine learning to learn from past antibiotic resistance and usage in order to predict what resistance will look like in the future. Different hospitals across England have very different resistance levels, however, within each hospital, these levels remain stable over time. When larger changes in resistance occurred over time in individual hospitals, our methods were able to predict these. Understanding how much resistance there is in hospital populations, and what may occur in the future can help determine where resources and interventions should be directed.

Activity of BAL30072 alone or combined with ß-lactamase inhibitors or with meropenem against carbapenem-resistant Enterobacteriaceae and non-fermenters.

OBJECTIVES: We investigated the activity of BAL30072, a dihydroxypyridone monosulfactam, against carbapenem-resistant Enterobacteriaceae and non-fermenters (i) alone, (ii) combined with BAL29880 (to inhibit AmpC) and/or clavulanate [to inhibit extended-spectrum ß-lactamases (ESBLs)] and (iii) combined 1:1 with meropenem. METHODS: Isolates were from multiple UK hospitals. MICs were determined by CLSI agar dilution. Carbapenemases were identified by PCR and sequencing. RESULTS: BAL30072 inhibited 69% of the carbapenem-resistant Enterobacteriaceae at ≤4 mg/L, including 60%-87% with OXA-48, IMP, NDM and VIM enzymes or combinations of impermeability with AmpC or ESBL, and 40% with KPC enzymes. The proportions susceptible exceeded 90% for BAL30072+BAL29880+clavulanate, except for isolates with KPC carbapenemases, where members of the international sequence type (ST) 258 Klebsiella pneumoniae clone remained resistant. At 4 mg/L, BAL30072 was active against all OprD-deficient Pseudomonas aeruginosa, against 8/12 with efflux-type ß-lactam resistance and 19/25 with metallo-carbapenemases; these proportions were little increased if inhibitors were added. Most Acinetobacter baumannii with OXA or NDM carbapenemases were susceptible to BAL30072 alone at ≤4 mg/L, but those with OXA-58 were resistant, probably for reasons other than their ß-lactamase. Addition of meropenem to BAL30072 increased activity against some individual isolates, but with little clear relationship to the resistance mechanism, except for consistent potentiation against OprD-deficient P. aeruginosa. CONCLUSIONS: BAL30072 had good activity against many diverse carbapenem resistance types. Adding clavulanate and/or BAL29880 extended activity against carbapenem-resistant Enterobacteriaceae, but not non-fermenters. Adding meropenem resulted in small increases in activity against individual isolates. Resistance remained common in the K. pneumoniae ST258 KPC clone, even with both inhibitors or meropenem added.