Optimal replacement of mastitic cows determined by a hierarchic Markov process.

Farmers frequently have to decide whether to keep or to replace cows that suffer from clinical mastitis. A dynamic programming model was developed to optimize these decisions for individual cows within the herd, using the hierarchic Markov process technique. This technique provides a method to model a wide variety of cows, differing in age, productive performance, reproductive status, and clinical mastitis occurrence. The model presented was able to support decisions related to 63% of all replacements. Results--for Dutch conditions--showed the considerable impact of mastitis on expected income of affected cows. Nevertheless, in most cases, the optimal decision was to keep and to treat rather than to replace the cow. Clinical mastitis occurring in the previous lactation negligibly influence expected income. Clinical mastitis in current lactation, especially in the current month, however, had a significant effect on expected income. Total losses caused by clinical mastitis were US$83/yr per cow. Farm level treatment, which reduced incidence by 25%, on a farm with 10 clinical quarter cases per 10,000 cow days, may cost at maximum US$27/yr per cow.

Short- and long-term production losses and repeatability of clinical mastitis in dairy cattle.

Between 1985 and 1990, a study of 5313 lactations of 2477 Black and White cows was carried out. A stepwise least squares method was used to obtain unbiased estimates of milk, fat, and protein losses that were due to clinical mastitis and the carry-over effect from the previous lactation. Logistic regression was used to estimate the probability that a cow would have clinical mastitis in the next month. The effect of clinical mastitis on production within one lactation was estimated at 527 kg of milk (8.1%), 22.7 kg of fat (8.0%), and 13.7 kg of protein (6.2%) for > or = 3 cases of clinical quarters in the second lactation. One or 2 cases of clinical quarters in a lactation did not significantly affect the production in the next lactation. The negative carry-over effect of > or = 3 cases of clinical quarters was estimated at 381 kg of milk (5.9%), 23.7 kg of fat (8.4%), and 10.1 kg of protein (4.6%) up to and including mo 8 of the second lactation. The fat content in milk produced after the onset of mastitis decreased, and the protein content increased. The risk of clinical mastitis infection in the following month was influenced by month of lactation (a higher risk early in lactation), lactation number (risk increased with lactation number), production level (higher risk for high producing cows), number of clinical quarters in the previous lactation, number of clinical quarters in the previous months of the current lactation, and occurrence of clinical mastitis in the current month.