Assessing thyroid cancer risk using polygenic risk scores.

Genome-wide association studies (GWASs) have identified at least 10 single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) associated with papillary thyroid cancer (PTC) risk. Most of these SNPs are common variants with small to moderate effect sizes. Here we assessed the combined genetic effects of these variants on PTC risk by using summarized GWAS results to build polygenic risk score (PRS) models in three PTC study groups from Ohio (1,544 patients and 1,593 controls), Iceland (723 patients and 129,556 controls), and the United Kingdom (534 patients and 407,945 controls). A PRS based on the 10 established PTC SNPs showed a stronger predictive power compared with the clinical factors model, with a minimum increase of area under the receiver-operating curve of 5.4 percentage points (P ≤ 1.0 × 10-9). Adding an extended PRS based on 592,475 common variants did not significantly improve the prediction power compared with the 10-SNP model, suggesting that most of the remaining undiscovered genetic risk in thyroid cancer is due to rare, moderate- to high-penetrance variants rather than to common low-penetrance variants. Based on the 10-SNP PRS, individuals in the top decile group of PRSs have a close to sevenfold greater risk (95% CI, 5.4-8.8) compared with the bottom decile group. In conclusion, PRSs based on a small number of common germline variants emphasize the importance of heritable low-penetrance markers in PTC.

Incidence of cancer among licenced commercial pilots flying North Atlantic routes.

BACKGROUND: To evaluate cancer incidence among licenced commercial pilots in association with cosmic radiation. METHODS: Cohort study where ionizing radiation dose of cosmic radiation was estimated from airline data and software program and cancer incidence was obtained by record linkage with nation-wide cancer registry. All licenced commercial male airline pilots were followed from 1955 to 2015, ever or never employed at airline with international routes. Standardized incidence ratios were calculated and relative risk by Poisson regression, to examine exposure-response relation. RESULTS: Eighty three cancers were registered compared with 92 expected; standardized incidence ratios were 0.90 (95% CI 0.71 to 1.11) for all cancers, 3.31 (95% CI 1.33 to 6.81) for malignant melanoma, and 2.49 (95% CI 1.69 to 3.54), for basal cell carcinoma of skin. The risk for all cancers, malignant melanoma, prostate cancer, basal cell carcinoma of skin, and basal cell carcinoma of trunk increased with an increase in number of employment years, cumulative air hours, total cumulative radiation dose, and cumulative radiation dose sustained up to age of 40 years. The relative risk for the highest exposure categories of cumulative radiation dose were 2.42 (95% CI 1.50 to 3.92) for all cancers, 2.57 (95% CI 1.18 to 5.56) for prostate cancer, 9.88 (95% CI 1.57 to 190.78) for malignant melanoma, 3.61 (95% CI 1.64 to 8.48) for all basal cell carcinoma, and 6.65 (95% CI 1.61 to 44.64) for basal cell carcinoma of trunk. CONCLUSIONS: This study was underpowered to study brain cancer and leukaemia risk. Basal cell carcinoma of skin is radiation-related cancer, and may be attributed to cosmic radiation. Further studies are needed to clarify the risk of cancers in association with cosmic radiation, other workplace exposure, host factors, and leisure sun-exposure, as clothes, and glass in cockpit windows shield pilots from the most potent ultraviolet-radiation.

Common variants on chromosomes 2q35 and 16q12 confer susceptibility to estrogen receptor-positive breast cancer.

Familial clustering studies indicate that breast cancer risk has a substantial genetic component. To identify new breast cancer risk variants, we genotyped approximately 300,000 SNPs in 1,600 Icelandic individuals with breast cancer and 11,563 controls using the Illumina Hap300 platform. We then tested selected SNPs in five replication sample sets. Overall, we studied 4,554 affected individuals and 17,577 controls. Two SNPs consistently associated with breast cancer: approximately 25% of individuals of European descent are homozygous for allele A of rs13387042 on chromosome 2q35 and have an estimated 1.44-fold greater risk than noncarriers, and for allele T of rs3803662 on 16q12, about 7% are homozygous and have a 1.64-fold greater risk. Risk from both alleles was confined to estrogen receptor-positive tumors. At present, no genes have been identified in the linkage disequilibrium block containing rs13387042. rs3803662 is near the 5' end of TNRC9 , a high mobility group chromatin-associated protein whose expression is implicated in breast cancer metastasis to bone.

GWAS of thyroid stimulating hormone highlights pleiotropic effects and inverse association with thyroid cancer.

Thyroid stimulating hormone (TSH) is critical for normal development and metabolism. To better understand the genetic contribution to TSH levels, we conduct a GWAS meta-analysis at 22.4 million genetic markers in up to 119,715 individuals and identify 74 genome-wide significant loci for TSH, of which 28 are previously unreported. Functional experiments show that the thyroglobulin protein-altering variants P118L and G67S impact thyroglobulin secretion. Phenome-wide association analysis in the UK Biobank demonstrates the pleiotropic effects of TSH-associated variants and a polygenic score for higher TSH levels is associated with a reduced risk of thyroid cancer in the UK Biobank and three other independent studies. Two-sample Mendelian randomization using TSH index variants as instrumental variables suggests a protective effect of higher TSH levels (indicating lower thyroid function) on risk of thyroid cancer and goiter. Our findings highlight the pleiotropic effects of TSH-associated variants on thyroid function and growth of malignant and benign thyroid tumors.

A genome-wide association study yields five novel thyroid cancer risk loci.

The great majority of thyroid cancers are of the non-medullary type. Here we report findings from a genome-wide association study of non-medullary thyroid cancer, including in total 3,001 patients and 287,550 controls from five study groups of European descent. Our results yield five novel loci (all with Pcombined<3 × 10-8): 1q42.2 (rs12129938 in PCNXL2), 3q26.2 (rs6793295 a missense mutation in LRCC34 near TERC), 5q22.1 (rs73227498 between NREP and EPB41L4A), 10q24.33 (rs7902587 near OBFC1), and two independently associated variants at 15q22.33 (rs2289261 and rs56062135; both in SMAD3). We also confirm recently published association results from a Chinese study of a variant on 5p15.33 (rs2736100 near the TERT gene) and present a stronger association result for a moderately correlated variant (rs10069690; OR=1.20, P=3.2 × 10-7) based on our study of individuals of European ancestry. In combination, these results raise several opportunities for future studies of the pathogenesis of thyroid cancer.

The BARD1 Cys557Ser variant and breast cancer risk in Iceland.

BACKGROUND: Most, if not all, of the cellular functions of the BRCA1 protein are mediated through heterodimeric complexes composed of BRCA1 and a related protein, BARD1. Some breast-cancer-associated BRCA1 missense mutations disrupt the function of the BRCA1/BARD1 complex. It is therefore pertinent to determine whether variants of BARD1 confer susceptibility to breast cancer. Recently, a missense BARD1 variant, Cys557Ser, was reported to be at increased frequencies in breast cancer families. We investigated the role of the BARD1 Cys557Ser variant in a population-based cohort of 1,090 Icelandic patients with invasive breast cancer and 703 controls. We then used a computerized genealogy of the Icelandic population to study the relationships between the Cys557Ser variant and familial clustering of breast cancer. METHODS AND FINDINGS: The Cys557Ser allele was present at a frequency of 0.028 in patients with invasive breast cancer and 0.016 in controls (odds ratio [OR] = 1.82, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.11-3.01, p = 0.014). The alleleic frequency was 0.037 in a high-predisposition group of cases defined by having a family history of breast cancer, early onset of breast cancer, or multiple primary breast cancers (OR = 2.41, 95% CI 1.22-4.75, p = 0.015). Carriers of the common Icelandic BRCA2 999del5 mutation were found to have their risk of breast cancer further increased if they also carried the BARD1 variant: the frequency of the BARD1 variant allele was 0.047 (OR = 3.11, 95% CI 1.16-8.40, p = 0.046) in 999del5 carriers with breast cancer. This suggests that the lifetime probability of a BARD1 Cys557Ser/BRCA2 999del5 double carrier developing breast cancer could approach certainty. Cys557Ser carriers, with or without the BRCA2 mutation, had an increased risk of subsequent primary breast tumors after the first breast cancer diagnosis compared to non-carriers. Lobular and medullary breast carcinomas were overrepresented amongst Cys557Ser carriers. We found that an excess of ancestors of contemporary carriers lived in a single county in the southeast of Iceland and that all carriers shared a SNP haplotype, which is suggestive of a founder event. Cys557Ser was found on the same SNP haplotype background in the HapMap Project CEPH sample of Utah residents. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest that BARD1 Cys557Ser is an ancient variant that confers risk of single and multiple primary breast cancers, and this risk extends to carriers of the BRCA2 999del5 mutation.

Cosmic radiation increases the risk of nuclear cataract in airline pilots: a population-based case-control study.

BACKGROUND: Aviation involves exposure to ionizing radiation of cosmic origin. The association between lesions of the ocular lens and ionizing radiation is well-known. OBJECTIVE: To investigate whether employment as a commercial airline pilot and the resulting exposure to cosmic radiation is associated with lens opacification. METHODS: This is a population-based case-control study of 445 men. Lens opacification was classified into 4 types using the World Health Organization simplified grading system. These 4 types, serving as cases, included 71 persons with nuclear cataracts, 102 with cortical lens opacification, 69 with central optical zone involvement, and 32 with posterior subcapsular lens opacification. Control subjects are those with a different type of lens opacification or without lens opacification. Exposure was assessed based on employment time as pilots, annual number of hours flown on each aircraft type, time tables, flight profiles, and individual cumulative radiation doses (in millisieverts) calculated by a software program. Odds ratios were calculated using logistic regression. RESULTS: The odds ratio for nuclear cataract risk among cases and controls was 3.02 (95% confidence interval, 1.44-6.35) for pilots compared with nonpilots, adjusted for age, smoking status, and sunbathing habits. The odds ratio for nuclear cataract associated with estimation of cumulative radiation dose (in millisieverts) to the age of 40 years was 1.06 (95% confidence interval, 1.02-1.10), adjusted for age, smoking status, and sunbathing habits. CONCLUSION: The association between the cosmic radiation exposure of pilots and the risk of nuclear cataracts, adjusted for age, smoking status, and sunbathing habits, indicates that cosmic radiation may be a causative factor in nuclear cataracts among commercial airline pilots.

Tall cell variant of papillary thyroid carcinoma: a population-based study in Iceland.

BACKGROUND: The tall cell variant (TCV) of papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC) is an aggressive variant of PTC that is believed to have worse outcomes than classical PTC. The objective of this study was to investigate the incidence, survival, and disease recurrence of patients with TCV and compare them with other PTC in a whole population. METHODS: Information on all thyroid carcinomas diagnosed in Iceland from 1990 to 2009 was obtained from the Icelandic Cancer Registry. PTC diagnosed postmortem was excluded. The date of diagnosis, sex, and age at diagnosis were registered. All histopathology material was re-evaluated, and papillary thyroid tumors classified as either TCV or other types of PTC. Tumors were classified as TCV if >50% of cells were tall (height > twice the width). TNM stage was determined for all the cases. Endpoints were thyroid cancer-specific death and thyroid cancer recurrence. RESULTS: Out of 376 patients diagnosed with PTC in the study period, 49 (13%) were classified as TCV. Patients with TCV were older (66 years vs. 49 years, p<0.001), more often had pT4 tumors (71% vs. 15%, p<0.001), had higher rates of nodal metastasis (51% vs. 22%, p<0.001), and more often distant metastasis (14% vs. 2%, p<0.001). The age-adjusted incidence of TCV for men was 0.5/100,000 [confidence interval (CI) 0.3-0.7] and for women 0.7/100,000 [CI 0.4-1.0] between 1990 and 2009. The five-year disease-specific survival for TCV was 83% [CI 68-91] compared to 98% [CI 96-99] for other PTC respectively (p<0.001). In multivariate analysis, TCV histology was an independent risk factor for recurrence (hazard ratio (HR) 3.18 [CI 1.48-6.84]) but not for disease specific survival (HR 1.86 [CI 0.77-4.73]). CONCLUSIONS: TCV comprises 13% of all diagnosed PTC in Iceland with an incidence of 0.5/100,000 for men and 0.7/100,000 for women. Patients diagnosed with TCV have worse five-year disease-specific survival than patients with other PTC. TCV histology is an independent risk factor for disease recurrence but not for disease-specific survival.

Cancer incidence among 10,211 airline pilots: a Nordic study.

BACKGROUND: Commercial airline pilots are exposed to cosmic radiation and other potentially carcinogenic elements during work and leisure activities. HYPOTHESIS: Work-related factors affect cancer pattern of the pilots. METHODS: A cohort of 10,051 male and 160 female airline pilots from Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway, and Sweden was followed for cancer incidence through the national cancer registries. There were 177,000 person-years at follow-up, 51,000 of them accumulated after 20 yr since the time of first employment. Standardized incidence ratios (SIRs) were defined as ratios of observed over expected numbers of cases based on national cancer incidence rates. Dose-response analyses were done with Poisson regression method. RESULTS: Among male pilots, there were 466 cases of cancer diagnosed vs. 456 expected. The only significantly increased SIRs concerned skin cancer: melanoma 2.3 (95% CI 1.7-3.0), squamous cell cancer 2.1 (1.7-2.8), and basal cell carcinoma 2.5 (1.9-3.2). The relative risk of skin cancers increased with the time since first employment, the number of flight hours, and the estimated radiation dose. There was an increase in the relative risk of prostate cancer with increasing number of flight hours in long-distance aircraft (p trend 0.01). No increased incidence was found for acute myeloid leukemia or brain cancer which were of interest a priori based on earlier studies. CONCLUSIONS: This large study, based on reliable cancer incidence data, showed an increased incidence of skin cancer. It did not indicate a marked increase in cancer risk attributable to cosmic radiation although some influence of cosmic radiation on skin cancer cannot be entirely excluded.

Discovery of common variants associated with low TSH levels and thyroid cancer risk.

To search for sequence variants conferring risk of nonmedullary thyroid cancer, we focused our analysis on 22 SNPs with a P < 5 × 10(-8) in a genome-wide association study on levels of thyroid stimulating hormone (TSH) in 27,758 Icelanders. Of those, rs965513 has previously been shown to associate with thyroid cancer. The remaining 21 SNPs were genotyped in 561 Icelandic individuals with thyroid cancer (cases) and up to 40,013 controls. Variants suggestively associated with thyroid cancer (P < 0.05) were genotyped in an additional 595 non-Icelandic cases and 2,604 controls. After combining the results, three variants were shown to associate with thyroid cancer: rs966423 on 2q35 (OR = 1.34; P(combined) = 1.3 × 10(-9)), rs2439302 on 8p12 (OR = 1.36; P(combined) = 2.0 × 10(-9)) and rs116909374 on 14q13.3 (OR = 2.09; P(combined) = 4.6 × 10(-11)), a region previously reported to contain an uncorrelated variant conferring risk of thyroid cancer. A strong association (P = 9.1 × 10(-91)) was observed between rs2439302 on 8p12 and expression of NRG1, which encodes the signaling protein neuregulin 1, in blood.

[Thyroid cancer in Iceland in the period 1955-2004. A clinico-pathological and epidemiological study]. / Skjaldkirtilskrabbamein a Islandi timabilid 1955-2004. Klinisk og meinafraedileg faraldsfraedirannsokn.

INTRODUCTION: Thyroid cancer has been unusually common in Iceland. Histological classification and TNM-staging has altered somewhat in the last decades. The aim of this study was to investigate the epidemiology of thyroid cancer in Iceland over half a century and identify factors affecting survival. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Information on all thyroid cancers diagnosed in Iceland from 1955 to 2004 was obtained from the Icelandic Cancer Registry. Tumours diagnosed post-mortem were excluded. The date of diagnosis, sex and age at diagnosis was registered. All histopathology material was re-evaluated to reclassify tumours and TNM-stage was determined. The effect of registered parameters on prognosis was determined both in uni- and multivariate analysis. RESULTS: Out of 805 thyroid cancer cases in the study 588 were in women. The mean age was 51 years in women and 58 years in men. The oscillation of incidence was marked in the study period although it did not increase in the last decades of the study. The overall proportion of papillary carcinoma was around 80% and the proportion of T0-T2 tumours was 66%. Neither number has changed significantly in the last 40 years of the study. The overall disease specific 5 year survival was 88% and increased significantly in the study period. In a multivariate analysis patient's age, year of diagnosis, tumour type and TNM-stage were independent significant prognostic variables. CONCLUSION: Thyroid cancer incidence in Iceland is no longer different to that in many neighbouring countries. Sex was not an independent prognostic parameter. The year of diagnosis was an independent prognostic factor which might indicate a more efficient treatment in later years.

Common variants on 9q22.33 and 14q13.3 predispose to thyroid cancer in European populations.

In order to search for sequence variants conferring risk of thyroid cancer we conducted a genome-wide association study in 192 and 37,196 Icelandic cases and controls, respectively, followed by a replication study in individuals of European descent. Here we show that two common variants, located on 9q22.33 and 14q13.3, are associated with the disease. Overall, the strongest association signals were observed for rs965513 on 9q22.33 (OR = 1.75; P = 1.7 x 10(-27)) and rs944289 on 14q13.3 (OR = 1.37; P = 2.0 x 10(-9)). The gene nearest to the 9q22.33 locus is FOXE1 (TTF2) and NKX2-1 (TTF1) is among the genes located at the 14q13.3 locus. Both variants contribute to an increased risk of both papillary and follicular thyroid cancer. Approximately 3.7% of individuals are homozygous for both variants, and their estimated risk of thyroid cancer is 5.7-fold greater than that of noncarriers. In a study on a large sample set from the general population, both risk alleles are associated with low concentrations of thyroid stimulating hormone (TSH), and the 9q22.33 allele is associated with low concentration of thyroxin (T(4)) and high concentration of triiodothyronine (T(3)).

Common variants on chromosome 5p12 confer susceptibility to estrogen receptor-positive breast cancer.

We carried out a genome-wide association study of breast cancer predisposition with replication and refinement studies involving 6,145 cases and 33,016 controls and identified two SNPs (rs4415084 and rs10941679) on 5p12 that confer risk, preferentially for estrogen receptor (ER)-positive tumors (OR = 1.27, P = 2.5 x 10(-12) for rs10941679). The nearest gene, MRPS30, was previously implicated in apoptosis, ER-positive tumors and favorable prognosis. A recently reported signal in FGFR2 was also found to associate specifically with ER-positive breast cancer.

[Primary pancreatic lymphoma causing obstructive jaundice in a 71 year old man. A case report and review of the literature.].

Primary lymphoma of the pancreas is a very rare disease. They are difficult to diagnose and have good prognosis, due to their sensitivity to chemotherapy and radiation. As compared to the more common pancreatic adenocarcinomas which usually have bad prognosis. Histological diagnosis relies on good biopsy. We report a case of primary pancreatic non-Hodgkin s lymphoma diagnosed in a 71 year old icteric man. Chemotherapy and radiation therapy was started after relieving the jaundice with a PTC-introduced stent through the pancreatic part of the choledochus. This is the first reported case of pancreatic lymphoma in Iceland.

Risk factors for malignant melanoma in an Icelandic population sample.

OBJECTIVES: To describe the constitutional risk factors for malignant melanoma and exposure to sunlight in a population sample in Iceland. METHODS: Information on various risk factors for malignant melanoma was collected through mailed questionnaires sent to a random sample of the Icelandic population. The information collected was the first phase of a prospective study on malignant melanoma among aircrew members as compared to a population sample. RESULTS: The overall participation rate was about 50%. Seven percent of women and six percent of men had red hair color. Blue or green eye color was reported among 89% of women and 87% of men. Sixteen percent of women aged 20 to 39 had used sun beds more than 100 times during their lifetime, while the corresponding figure was 12% for men of the same age. Younger age groups had more sunny vacations than the older age groups. The frequency of sunburn differed in the groups with reported different skin types according to Fitzpatrick classification. CONCLUSION: The high prevalence of sun bed usage among young women is concurrent with the increased incidence of malignant melanoma among young women registered in the nationwide cancer registry. Young people have more often used sun beds and taken sunny vacation than the older, indicating a changed behavior in the population.

Incidence of cancer among Nordic airline pilots over five decades: occupational cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the incidence of cancer among male airline pilots in the Nordic countries, with special reference to risk related to cosmic radiation. DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study, with follow up of cancer incidence through the national cancer registries. SETTING: Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway, and Sweden. PARTICIPANTS: 10 032 male airline pilots, with an average follow up of 17 years. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Standardised incidence ratios, with expected numbers based on national cancer incidence rates; dose-response analysis using Poisson regression. RESULTS: 466 cases of cancer were diagnosed compared with 456 expected. The only significantly increased standardised incidence ratios were for skin cancer: melanoma 2.3 (95% confidence interval 1.7 to 3.0), non-melanoma 2.1 (1.7 to 2.8), basal cell carcinoma 2.5 (1.9 to 3.2). The relative risk of skin cancers increased with the estimated radiation dose. The relative risk of prostate cancer increased with increasing number of flight hours in long distance aircraft. CONCLUSIONS: This study does not indicate a marked increase in cancer risk attributable to cosmic radiation, although some influence of cosmic radiation on skin cancer cannot be entirely excluded. The suggestion of an association between number of long distance flights (possibly related to circadian hormonal disturbances) and prostate cancer needs to be confirmed.

Mortality from cancer and other causes among airline cabin attendants in Europe: a collaborative cohort study in eight countries.

There is concern about the health effects of exposure to cosmic radiation during air travel. To study the potential health effects of this and occupational exposures, the authors investigated mortality patterns among more than 44,000 airline cabin crew members in Europe. A cohort study was performed in eight European countries, yielding approximately 655,000 person-years of follow-up. Observed numbers of deaths were compared with expected numbers based on national mortality rates. Among female cabin crew, overall mortality (standardized mortality ratio (SMR) = 0.80, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.73, 0.88) and all-cancer mortality (SMR = 0.78, 95% CI: 0.66, 0.95) were slightly reduced, while breast cancer mortality was slightly but nonsignificantly increased (SMR = 1.11, 95% CI: 0.82, 1.48). In contrast, overall mortality (SMR = 1.09, 95% CI: 1.00, 1.18) and mortality from skin cancer (for malignant melanoma, SMR = 1.93, 95% CI: 0.70, 4.44) among male cabin crew were somewhat increased. The authors noted excess mortality from aircraft accidents and from acquired immunodeficiency syndrome in males. Among airline cabin crew in Europe, there was no increase in mortality that could be attributed to cosmic radiation or other occupational exposures to any substantial extent. The risk of skin cancer among male crew members requires further attention.