A bacteraemia risk prediction model: development and validation in an emergency medicine population.

OBJECTIVE: Design a risk model to predict bacteraemia in patients attended in emergency departments (ED) for an episode of infection. METHODS: This was a national, prospective, multicentre, observational cohort study of blood cultures (BC) collected from adult patients (≥ 18 years) attended in 71 Spanish EDs from October 1 2019 to March 31, 2020. Variables with a p value < 0.05 were introduced in the univariate analysis together with those of clinical significance. The final selection of variables for the scoring scale was made by logistic regression with selection by introduction. The results obtained were internally validated by dividing the sample in a derivation and a validation cohort. RESULTS: A total of 4,439 infectious episodes were included. Of these, 899 (20.25%) were considered as true bacteraemia. A predictive model for bacteraemia was defined with seven variables according to the Bacteraemia Prediction Model of the INFURG-SEMES group (MPB-INFURG-SEMES). The model achieved an area under the curve-receiver operating curve of 0.924 (CI 95%:0.914-0.934) in the derivation cohort, and 0.926 (CI 95%: 0.910-0.942) in the validation cohort. Patients were then split into ten risk categories, and had the following rates of risk: 0.2%(0 points), 0.4%(1 point), 0.9%(2 points), 1.8%(3 points), 4.7%(4 points), 19.1% (5 points), 39.1% (6 points), 56.8% (7 points), 71.1% (8 points), 82.7% (9 points) and 90.1% (10 points). Findings were similar in the validation cohort. The cut-off point of five points provided the best precision with a sensitivity of 95.94%, specificity of 76.28%, positive predictive value of 53.63% and negative predictive value of 98.50%. CONCLUSION: The MPB-INFURG-SEMES model may be useful for the stratification of risk of bacteraemia in adult patients with infection in EDs, together with clinical judgement and other variables independent of the process and the patient.

Ability of lactate, procalcitonin, and criteria defining sepsis to predict 30-day mortality, bacteremia, and microbiologically confirmed infection in patients with infection suspicion treated in emergency departments. / Capacidad del lactato, procalcitonina y de los criterios definitorios de sepsis para predecir mortalidad a 30 días, bacteriemia o infección confirmada microbiológicamente en los pacientes atendidos por sospecha de infección en urgencias.

OBJECTIVES: To evaluate lactate, procalcitonin, criteria defining systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS), and the Quick Sepsis-Related Organ Failure Assessment (qSOFA) and compare their ability to predict 30-day mortality, infection with microbiologic confirmation, and true bacteremia in patients treated for infection in hospital emergency departments. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Prospective multicenter observational cohort study. We enrolled a convenience sample of patients aged 18 years or older attended in 71 Spanish emergency departments from October 1, 2019, to March 31, 2020. Each model's predictive power was analyzed with the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), and predetermined decision points were assessed. RESULTS: A total of 4439 patients with a mean (SD) age of 18 years were studied; 2648 (59.7%) were men and 459 (10.3%) died within 30 days. True bacteremia was detected in 899 (20.25%), and microbiologic confirmation was on record for 2057 (46.3%). The model that included the qSOFA score (2) and lactate concentration (0.738 mmol/L; 95% CI, 0.711-0.765 mmol/L) proved to be the best predictor of 30-day mortality, with an AUC of 0.890 (95% CI, 0.880-0.901). The model that included the SIRS score (2) and procalcitonin concentration (0.51 ng/mL) proved to be the best predictor of true bacteremia and microbiologic confirmation, with an AUC of 0.713 (95% CI, 0.698-0.728). CONCLUSION: A qSOFA score of 2 or more plus lactate concentration (0.738 mmol/L) predict 30-day mortality better than the combination of a SIRS score of 2 or more and procalcitonin concentration. A SIRS score of 2 or more plus procalcitonin concentration (0.51 ng/mL) predict true bacteremia and microbiologic confirmation.

OBJETIVO: Evaluar y comparar la capacidad del lactato, la procalcitonina (PCT) y de los criterios definitorios de sepsis (síndrome de respuesta inflamatoria sistémica ­SRIS­ y del quick Sepsis-related Organ Failure Assessment ­qSOFA­) para predecir mortalidad a 30 días, o infección ­con confirmación microbiológica o bacteriemia verdadera (BV)­ en los pacientes que acuden al servicio de urgencias hospitalario (SUH) por un episodio de sospecha de infección. METODO: Estudio observacional de cohortes, multicéntrico, prospectivo. Se incluyó por oportunidad a pacientes 18 años atendidos por sospecha de infección en 71 SUH españoles desde el 01/10/2019 al 31/03/2020. Se analizó la capacidad predictiva con el área bajo la curva (ABC) de la característica operativa del receptor (COR) y puntos de decisión predeterminados. RESULTADOS: Se incluyeron 4.439 pacientes con edad media de 67 (18) años, 2.648 (59,7%) fueron hombres, fallecieron a los 30 días 459 (10,3%), se consideraron BV 899 (20,2%) y se consiguió confirmación microbiológica en 2.057 (46,3%). Para la mortalidad a 30 días la mejor ABC-COR fue la obtenida con el modelo qSOFA 2 más lactato 2 mmol/l con un ABC-COR de 0,738 (0,711-0,765). Para predecir BV y confirmación microbiológica el mejor rendimiento se obtuvo con el modelo de SRIS 2 más PCT 0,51 ng/ml, con un ABC-COR de 0,890 (0,880-0,901) y 0,713 (0,698-0,728), respectivamente. CONCLUSIONES: Para la predicción de mortalidad a 30 días, el qSOFA 2 es superior al SRIS 2 y el mejor rendimiento lo consigue el modelo qSOFA 2 más lactato 2 mmol/l. Para predecir BV y confirmación microbiológica, la PCT es superior al lactato y el mejor rendimiento lo obtiene el modelo SRIS 2 más PCT 0,51 ng/ml.

Validation of a predictive model for bacteraemia (MPB5-Toledo) in the patients seen in emergency departments due to infections. / Validación del modelo predictivo de bacteriemia (5MPB-Toledo) en los pacientes atendidos en el servicio de urgencias por infección.

OBJECTIVE: To validate a simple risk score to predict bacteremia (MPB5-Toledo) in patients seen in the emergency departments (ED) due to infections. METHODS: Prospective and multicenter observational cohort study of the blood cultures (BC) ordered in 74 Spanish ED for adults (aged 18 or older) seen from from October 1, 2019, to February 29, 2020. The predictive ability of the model was analyzed with the area under the Receiver Operating Characteristic curve (AUC-ROC). The prognostic performance for true bacteremia was calculated with the cut-off values chosen for getting the sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and negative predictive value. RESULTS: A total of 3.843 blood samples wered cultured. True cases of bacteremia were confirmed in 839 (21.83%). The remaining 3.004 cultures (78.17%) were negative. Among the negative, 172 (4.47%) were judged to be contaminated. Low risk for bacteremia was indicated by a score of 0 to 2 points, intermediate risk by 3 to 5 points, and high risk by 6 to 8 points. Bacteremia in these 3 risk groups was predicted for 1.5%, 16.8%, and 81.6%, respectively. The model's area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.930 (95% CI, 0.916-0.948). The prognostic performance with a model's cut-off value of ≥ 5 points achieved 94.76% (95% CI: 92.97-96.12) sensitivity, 81.56% (95% CI: 80.11-82.92) specificity, and negative predictive value of 98.24% (95% CI: 97.62-98.70). CONCLUSION: The 5MPB-Toledo score is useful for predicting bacteremia in patients attended in hospital emergency departments for infection.