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2.
Glob Chang Biol ; 27(19): 4935-4945, 2021 10.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34170593

RESUMO

Addressing climate change risks requires collaboration and engagement across all sectors of society. In particular, effective partnerships are needed between research scientists producing new knowledge, policy-makers and practitioners who apply conservation actions on the ground. We describe the implementation of a model for increasing the application and useability of biodiversity research in climate adaptation policy and practice. The focus of the program was to increase the ability of a state government agency and natural resource practitioners in Australia to manage and protect biodiversity in a changing climate. The model comprised a five-stage process for enhancing impact (i) initiation of research projects that addressed priority conservation policy and management issues; (ii) co-design of the research using a collaborative approach involving multiple stakeholders; (iii) implementation of the research and design of decision tools and web-based resources; (iv) collaborative dissemination of the tools and resources via government and community working groups; and (v) evaluation of research impact. We report on the model development and implementation, and critically reflect on the model's impact. We share the lessons learnt from the challenges of operating within a stakeholder group with diverse objectives and criteria for success, and provide a template for creating an environmental research program with real world impact.


Assuntos
Biodiversidade , Recursos Naturais , Mudança Climática , Conservação dos Recursos Naturais , Políticas
3.
Glob Chang Biol ; 27(9): 1692-1703, 2021 05.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33629799

RESUMO

Globally, collapse of ecosystems-potentially irreversible change to ecosystem structure, composition and function-imperils biodiversity, human health and well-being. We examine the current state and recent trajectories of 19 ecosystems, spanning 58° of latitude across 7.7 M km2 , from Australia's coral reefs to terrestrial Antarctica. Pressures from global climate change and regional human impacts, occurring as chronic 'presses' and/or acute 'pulses', drive ecosystem collapse. Ecosystem responses to 5-17 pressures were categorised as four collapse profiles-abrupt, smooth, stepped and fluctuating. The manifestation of widespread ecosystem collapse is a stark warning of the necessity to take action. We present a three-step assessment and management framework (3As Pathway Awareness, Anticipation and Action) to aid strategic and effective mitigation to alleviate further degradation to help secure our future.


Assuntos
Recifes de Corais , Ecossistema , Regiões Antárticas , Biodiversidade , Mudança Climática , Humanos
4.
Health Expect ; 24(6): 1936-1947, 2021 12.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34599866

RESUMO

CONTEXT: Being involved in one's care is prioritised within UK healthcare policy to improve care quality and safety. However, research suggests that many older people struggle with this. DESIGN: We present focused ethnographic research exploring older peoples' involvement in healthcare from hospital to home. RESULTS: We propose that being involved in care is a dynamic form of labour, which we call 'involvement work' (IW). In hospital, many patients 'entrust' IW to others; indeed, when desired, maintaining control, or being actively involved, was challenging. Patient and professionals' expectations, alongside hospital processes, promoted delegation; staff frequently did IW on patients' behalf. Many people wanted to resume IW postdischarge, but struggled because they were out of practice. DISCUSSION: Preference and capacity for involvement was dynamic, fluctuating over time, according to context and resource accessibility. The challenges of resuming IW were frequently underestimated by patients and care providers, increasing dependence on others post-discharge and negatively affecting peoples' sense and experience of (in)dependence. CONCLUSIONS: A balance needs to be struck between respecting peoples' desire/capacity for non-involvement in hospital while recognising that 'delegating' IW can be detrimental. Increasing involvement will require patient and staff roles to be reframed, though this must be done acknowledging the limits of patient desire, capability,and resources. Hospital work should be (re)organised to maximise involvement where possible and desired. PATIENT/PUBLIC CONTRIBUTION: Our Patient and Public Involvement and Engagement Panel contributed to research design, especially developing interview guides and patient-facing documentation. Patients were key participants within the study; it is their experiences represented.


Assuntos
Assistência ao Convalescente , Cuidadores , Idoso , Transição do Hospital para o Domicílio , Hospitais , Humanos , Alta do Paciente
5.
J Trauma Dissociation ; 22(1): 52-68, 2021.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32419670

RESUMO

This study is a pilot randomized controlled trial that examined the efficacy of a body-oriented group therapy designed to address chronic fear states in the body due to complex trauma. The Trauma and the Body Group (TBG) is a 20-session group psychotherapy that draws upon the principles and techniques of sensorimotor psychotherapy. Thirty-two women with a history of childhood trauma were randomized to immediate treatment or a waitlist control condition. Assessments were conducted one month prior to treatment, immediately after treatment, and six months post-treatment. Significant improvements were found in body awareness, anxiety, and soothing receptivity when comparing treatment to no treatment. The TBG appears to be a valuable tool for helping clients acquire mindfulness and self soothing skills that they can use to reduce posttraumatic symptoms. This study provides preliminary evidence that the TBG provides complex trauma survivors an opportunity to challenge their avoidance of two prominent trauma-related triggers - their bodies and interpersonal relationships - and in so doing may help survivors develop greater body awareness, increase their capacity for self and relational soothing, and reduce their anxiety symptoms.


Assuntos
Sobreviventes Adultos de Maus-Tratos Infantis , Atenção Plena , Psicoterapia de Grupo , Transtornos de Estresse Pós-Traumáticos , Feminino , Humanos , Psicoterapia , Transtornos de Estresse Pós-Traumáticos/terapia , Resultado do Tratamento
6.
Glob Chang Biol ; 26(2): 410-416, 2020 02.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31746093

RESUMO

Climate change poses significant emerging risks to biodiversity, ecosystem function and associated socioecological systems. Adaptation responses must be initiated in parallel with mitigation efforts, but resources are limited. As climate risks are not distributed equally across taxa, ecosystems and processes, strategic prioritization of research that addresses stakeholder-relevant knowledge gaps will accelerate effective uptake into adaptation policy and management action. After a decade of climate change adaptation research within the Australian National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility, we synthesize the National Adaptation Research Plans for marine, terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems. We identify the key, globally relevant priorities for ongoing research relevant to informing adaptation policy and environmental management aimed at maximizing the resilience of natural ecosystems to climate change. Informed by both global literature and an extensive stakeholder consultation across all ecosystems, sectors and regions in Australia, involving thousands of participants, we suggest 18 priority research topics based on their significance, urgency, technical and economic feasibility, existing knowledge gaps and potential for cobenefits across multiple sectors. These research priorities provide a unified guide for policymakers, funding organizations and researchers to strategically direct resources, maximize stakeholder uptake of resulting knowledge and minimize the impacts of climate change on natural ecosystems. Given the pace of climate change, it is imperative that we inform and accelerate adaptation progress in all regions around the world.


Assuntos
Conservação dos Recursos Naturais , Ecossistema , Austrália , Biodiversidade , Mudança Climática
7.
Conserv Biol ; 33(3): 534-542, 2019 06.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-30570177

RESUMO

The rapidly changing climate is posing growing threats for all species, but particularly for those already considered threatened. We reviewed 100 recovery plans for Australian terrestrial threatened species (50 fauna and 50 flora plans) written from 1997 to 2017. We recorded the number of plans that acknowledged climate change as a threat and of these how many proposed specific actions to ameliorate the threat. We classified these actions along a continuum from passive or incremental to active or interventionist. Overall, just under 60% of the sampled recovery plans listed climate change as a current or potential threat to the threatened taxa, and the likelihood of this acknowledgment increased over time. A far smaller proportion of the plans, however, identified specific actions associated with ameliorating climate risk (22%) and even fewer (9%) recommended any interventionist action in response to a climate-change-associated threat. Our results point to a disconnect between the knowledge generated on climate-change-related risk and potential adaptation strategies and the extent to which this knowledge has been incorporated into an important instrument of conservation action.


Presteza Climática de los Planes de Recuperación para las Especies Amenazadas de Australia Resumen El clima rápidamente cambiante representa amenazas crecientes para todas las especies, pero más en particular para aquellas que ya se consideran como especies amenazadas. Revisamos 100 planes de recuperación para especies terrestres amenazadas de Australia (50 especies de fauna y 50 de flora) escritos entre 1997 y 2017. Registramos el número de planes que reconocían al cambio climático como una amenaza y cuántos de estos proponían acciones específicas para aminorar la amenaza. Clasificamos estas acciones en un continuo que abarcó desde acciones pasivas o incrementales hasta acciones activas o intervencionistas. En general, sólo un número menor al 60% de los planes de recuperación muestreados enlistaron al cambio climático como una amenaza actual o potencial para el taxón amenazado, y la probabilidad de este reconocimiento incrementó con el paso del tiempo. Sin embargo, una proporción mucho menor de los planes identificó acciones específicas asociadas con la reducción del riesgo climático (22%) y una fracción todavía menor (9%) recomendó una acción intervencionista como respuesta a las amenazas asociadas al cambio climático. Nuestros resultados evidencían una desconexión entre el conocimiento generado sobre el riesgo relacionado con el cambio climático y las estrategias potenciales de adaptación y la extensión a la que este conocimiento se ha incorporado dentro de un instrumento importante para las acciones de conservación.


Assuntos
Conservação dos Recursos Naturais , Espécies em Perigo de Extinção , Animais , Austrália , Mudança Climática
8.
Health Expect ; 22(3): 317-326, 2019 06.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31016863

RESUMO

BACKGROUND & OBJECTIVES: The comparative uses of different types of patient experience (PE) feedback as data within quality improvement (QI) are poorly understood. This paper reviews what types are currently available and categorizes them by their characteristics in order to better understand their roles in QI. METHODS: A scoping review of types of feedback currently available to hospital staff in the UK was undertaken. This comprised academic database searches for "measures of PE outcomes" (2000-2016), and grey literature and websites for all types of "PE feedback" potentially available (2005-2016). Through an iterative consensus process, we developed a list of characteristics and used this to present categories of similar types. MAIN RESULTS: The scoping review returned 37 feedback types. A list of 12 characteristics was developed and applied, enabling identification of 4 categories that help understand potential use within QI-(1) Hospital-initiated (validated) quantitative surveys: for example the NHS Adult Inpatient Survey; (2) Patient-initiated qualitative feedback: for example complaints or twitter comments; (3) Hospital-initiated qualitative feedback: for example Experience Based Co-Design; (4) Other: for example Friends & Family Test. Of those routinely collected, few elicit "ready-to-use" data and those that do elicit data most suitable for measuring accountability, not for informing ward-based improvement. Guidance does exist for linking collection of feedback to QI for some feedback types in Category 3 but these types  are not routinely used. CONCLUSION: If feedback is to be used more frequently within QI, more attention must be paid to obtaining and making available the most appropriate types.


Assuntos
Feedback Formativo , Hospitais/normas , Satisfação do Paciente , Melhoria de Qualidade , Humanos , Medicina Estatal , Reino Unido
9.
Health Expect ; 22(1): 102-113, 2019 02.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-30345726

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: The PRASE (Patient Reporting and Action for a Safe Environment) intervention provides a way to systematically collect patient feedback to support service improvement. To provide a sustainable mechanism for the PRASE intervention, a 2-year improvement project explored the potential for hospital volunteers to facilitate the collection of PRASE feedback. OBJECTIVE: To explore the implementation of the PRASE intervention delivered in collaboration with hospital volunteers from the perspectives of key stakeholders. DESIGN: A qualitative case study design was utilized across three acute NHS trusts in the United Kingdom between March 2016 and October 2016. Ward level data (staff interviews; action planning meeting recordings; implementation fidelity information) were analysed taking a pen portrait approach. We also carried out focus groups with hospital volunteers and interviews with voluntary services/patient experience staff, which were analysed thematically. RESULTS: Whilst most ward staff reported feeling engaged with the intervention, there were discordant views on its use and usefulness. The hospital volunteers were positive about their involvement, and on some wards, worked with staff to produce actions to improve services. The voluntary services/patient experience staff participants emphasised the need for PRASE to sit within an organisations' wider governance structure. CONCLUSION: From the perspective of key stakeholders, hospital volunteers facilitating the collection of PRASE feedback is a feasible means of implementing the PRASE intervention. However, the variability around ward staff being able to use the feedback to make changes to services demonstrates that it is this latter part of the PRASE intervention cycle that is more problematic.


Assuntos
Trabalhadores Voluntários de Hospital , Hospitais , Segurança do Paciente , Pesquisa Qualitativa , Gestão da Segurança , Grupos Focais , Humanos , Medicina Estatal , Reino Unido
10.
J Therm Biol ; 54: 12-9, 2015 Dec.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-26615722

RESUMO

Behavioural thermoregulation has the potential to alleviate the short-term impacts of climate change on some small ectotherms, without the need for changes to species distributions or genetic adaptation. We illustrate this by measuring the effect of behaviour in a cool temperate species of grasshopper (Phaulacridium vittatum) over a range of spatial and temporal scales in laboratory and natural field experiments. Microhabitat selection at the site scale was tested in free-ranging grasshoppers and related to changing thermal quality over a daily period. Artificial warming experiments were then used to measure the temperature at which common thermoregulatory behaviours are initiated and the subsequent reductions in body temperature. Behavioural means such as timing of activity, choice of substrates with optimum surface temperatures, shade seeking and postural adjustments (e.g. stilting, vertical orientation) were found to be highly effective at maintaining preferred body temperature. The maximum voluntarily tolerated temperature (MVT) was determined to be 44 °C ± 0.4 °C, indicating the upper bounds of thermal flexibility in this species. Behavioural thermoregulation effectively enables small ectotherms to regulate exposure to changing environmental temperatures and utilize the spatially and temporally heterogeneous environments they occupy. Species such as the wingless grasshopper, although adapted to cool temperate conditions, are likely to be well equipped to respond successfully to coarse scale climate change.

11.
J Therm Biol ; 52: 75-83, 2015 Aug.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-26267501

RESUMO

Behavioural thermoregulation has the potential to alleviate the short-term impacts of climate change on some small ectotherms, without the need for changes to species distributions or genetic adaptation. We illustrate this by measuring the effect of behaviour in a cool temperate species of grasshopper (Phaulacridium vittatum) over a range of spatial and temporal scales in laboratory and natural field experiments. Microhabitat selection at the site scale was tested in free-ranging grasshoppers and related to changing thermal quality over a daily period. Artificial warming experiments were then used to measure the temperature at which common thermoregulatory behaviours are initiated and the subsequent reductions in body temperature. Behavioural means such as timing of activity, choice of substrates with optimum surface temperatures, shade seeking and postural adjustments (e.g. stilting, vertical orientation) were found to be highly effective at maintaining preferred body temperature. The maximum voluntarily tolerated temperature (MVT) was determined to be 44°C±0.4°C, indicating the upper bounds of thermal flexibility in this species. Behavioural thermoregulation effectively enables small ectotherms to regulate exposure to changing environmental temperatures and utilize the spatially and temporally heterogeneous environments they occupy. Species such as the wingless grasshopper, although adapted to cool temperate conditions, are likely to be well equipped to respond successfully to coarse scale climate change.


Assuntos
Comportamento Animal/fisiologia , Regulação da Temperatura Corporal/fisiologia , Gafanhotos/fisiologia , Animais , Temperatura Corporal/fisiologia , Ritmo Circadiano , Mudança Climática , Temperatura Baixa , Ecossistema , Temperatura Alta , Atividade Motora/fisiologia , Caminhada
12.
J Environ Manage ; 159: 121-127, 2015 Aug 15.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-26063516

RESUMO

Predicting the influence of climate change on the potential distribution of naturalised alien plant species is an important and challenging task. While prioritisation of management actions for alien plants under current climatic conditions has been widely adopted, very few systems explicitly incorporate the potential of future changes in climate conditions to influence the distribution of alien plant species. Here, we develop an Australia-wide screening tool to assess the potential of naturalised alien plants to establish and spread under both current and future climatic conditions. The screening tool developed uses five spatially explicit criteria to establish the likelihood of alien plant population establishment and expansion under baseline climate conditions and future climates for the decades 2035 and 2065. Alien plants are then given a threat rating according to current and future threat to enable natural resource managers to focus on those species that pose the largest potential threat now and in the future. To demonstrate the screening tool, we present results for a representative sample of approximately 10% (n = 292) of Australia's known, naturalised alien plant species. Overall, most alien plant species showed decreases in area of habitat suitability under future conditions compared to current conditions and therefore the threat rating of most alien plant species declined between current and future conditions. Use of the screening tool is intended to assist natural resource managers in assessing the threat of alien plant establishment and spread under current and future conditions and thus prioritise detailed weed risk assessments for those species that pose the greatest threat. The screening tool is associated with a searchable database for all 292 alien plant species across a range of spatial scales, available through an interactive web-based portal at http://weedfutures.net/.


Assuntos
Mudança Climática , Ecossistema , Espécies Introduzidas , Software , Austrália , Bases de Dados Factuais , Monitoramento Ambiental/métodos , Previsões , Plantas
13.
Oecologia ; 173(2): 493-506, 2013 Oct.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-23512201

RESUMO

Release from natural enemies is considered to potentially play an important role in the initial establishment and success of introduced plants. With time, the species richness of herbivores using non-native plants may increase [species-time relationship (STR)]. We investigated whether enemy release may be limited to the early stages of invasion. Substituting space for time, we sampled invertebrates and measured leaf damage on the invasive species Senecio madagascariensis Poir. at multiple sites, north and south of the introduction site. Invertebrate communities were collected from plants in the field, and reared from collected plant tissue. We also sampled invertebrates and damage on the native congener Senecio pinnatifolius var. pinnatifolius A. Rich. This species served as a control to account for environmental factors that may vary along the latitudinal gradient and as a comparison for evaluating the enemy release hypothesis (ERH). In contrast to predictions of the ERH, greater damage and herbivore abundances and richness were found on the introduced species S. madagascariensis than on the native S. pinnatifolius. Supporting the STR, total invertebrates (including herbivores) decreased in abundance, richness and Shannon diversity from the point of introduction to the invasion fronts of S. madagascariensis. Leaf damage showed the opposite trend, with highest damage levels at the invasion fronts. Reared herbivore loads (as opposed to external collections) were greater on the invader at the point of introduction than on sites further from this region. These results suggest there is a complex relationship between the invader and invertebrate community response over time. S. madagascariensis may be undergoing rapid changes at its invasion fronts in response to environmental and herbivore pressure.


Assuntos
Herbivoria , Espécies Introduzidas , Invertebrados/fisiologia , Senécio/fisiologia , Animais , Conservação dos Recursos Naturais , Cadeia Alimentar , New South Wales , Folhas de Planta/fisiologia , Plantas Daninhas/fisiologia , Queensland , Especificidade da Espécie , Fatores de Tempo
14.
J Insect Sci ; 13: 51, 2013.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-23909454

RESUMO

Altitudinal clines in melanism are generally assumed to reflect the fitness benefits resulting from thermal differences between colour morphs, yet differences in thermal quality are not always discernible. The intra-specific application of the thermal melanism hypothesis was tested in the wingless grasshopper Phaulacridium vittatum (Sjöstedt) (Orthoptera: Acrididae) first by measuring the thermal properties of the different colour morphs in the laboratory, and second by testing for differences in average reflectance and spectral characteristics of populations along 14 altitudinal gradients. Correlations between reflectance, body size, and climatic variables were also tested to investigate the underlying causes of clines in melanism. Melanism in P. vittatum represents a gradation in colour rather than distinct colour morphs, with reflectance ranging from 2.49 to 5.65%. In unstriped grasshoppers, darker morphs warmed more rapidly than lighter morphs and reached a higher maximum temperature (lower temperature excess). In contrast, significant differences in thermal quality were not found between the colour morphs of striped grasshoppers. In support of the thermal melanism hypothesis, grasshoppers were, on average, darker at higher altitudes, there were differences in the spectral properties of brightness and chroma between high and low altitudes, and temperature variables were significant influences on the average reflectance of female grasshoppers. However, altitudinal gradients do not represent predictable variation in temperature, and the relationship between melanism and altitude was not consistent across all gradients. Grasshoppers generally became darker at altitudes above 800 m a.s.l., but on several gradients reflectance declined with altitude and then increased at the highest altitude.


Assuntos
Temperatura Corporal/efeitos da radiação , Gafanhotos/efeitos da radiação , Melaninas/fisiologia , Pigmentação , Altitude , Animais , Tamanho Corporal , Clima , Feminino , Gafanhotos/fisiologia , Luz , Masculino
15.
Conserv Biol ; 26(2): 199-207, 2012 Apr.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-22443127

RESUMO

Translocation, introduction, reintroduction, and assisted migrations are species conservation strategies that are attracting increasing attention, especially in the face of climate change. However, preventing the extinction of the suite of dependent species whose host species are threatened is seldom considered, and the effects on dependent species of moving threatened hosts are unclear. There is no published guidance on how to decide whether to move species, given this uncertainty. We examined the dependent-host system of 4 disparate taxonomic groups: insects on the feather-leaf banksia (Banksia brownii), montane banksia (B. montana), and Stirling Range beard heath (Leucopogon gnaphalioides); parasites of wild cats; mites and ticks on Duvaucel's gecko (Hoplodactylus duvaucelii) and tuatara (Sphenodon punctatus); and internal coccidian parasites of Cirl Bunting (Emberiza cirlus) and Hihi (Notiomystis cincta). We used these case studies to demonstrate a simple process for use in species- and community-level assessments of efforts to conserve dependents with their hosts. The insects dependent on Stirling Range beard heath and parasites on tigers (Panthera tigris) appeared to represent assemblages that would not be conserved by ex situ host conservation. In contrast, for the cases of dependent species we examined involving a single dependent species (internal parasites of birds and the mite Geckobia naultina on Duvaucel's gecko), ex situ conservation of the host species would also conserve the dependent species. However, moving dependent species with their hosts may be insufficient to maintain viable populations of the dependent species, and additional conservation strategies such as supplementing populations may be needed.


Assuntos
Migração Animal , Conservação dos Recursos Naturais , Extinção Biológica , Interações Hospedeiro-Parasita , Animais , Mudança Climática , Plantas , Austrália Ocidental
16.
Conserv Biol ; 25(4): 787-96, 2011 Aug.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-21453365

RESUMO

Invertebrates with specific host species may have a high probability of extinction when their hosts have a high probability of extinction. Some of these invertebrates are more likely to go extinct than their hosts, and under some circumstances, specific actions to conserve the host may be detrimental to the invertebrate. A critical constraint to identifying such invertebrates is uncertainty about their level of host specificity. We used two host-breadth models that explicitly incorporated uncertainty in the host specificity of an invertebrate species. We devised a decision protocol to identify actions that may increase the probability of persistence of a given dependent species. The protocol included estimates from the host-breadth models and decision nodes to identify cothreatened species. We applied the models and protocol to data on 1055 insects (186 species) associated with 2 threatened (as designated by the Australian Government) plant species and 19 plant species that are not threatened to determine whether any insect herbivores have the potential to become extinct if the plant becomes extinct. According to the host-breadth models, 18 species of insect had high host specificity to the threatened plant species. From these 18 insects, the decision protocol highlighted 6 species that had a high probability of extinction if their hosts were to become extinct (3% of all insects examined). The models and decision protocol have added objectivity and rigor to the process of deciding which dependent invertebrates require conservation action, particularly when dealing with largely unknown and speciose faunas.


Assuntos
Extinção Biológica , Invertebrados , Animais , Teorema de Bayes , Medição de Risco , Incerteza
17.
Conserv Biol ; 24(3): 682-90, 2010 Jun.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-20067486

RESUMO

Coextinction is a poorly quantified phenomenon, but results of recent modeling suggest high losses to global biodiversity through the loss of dependent species when hosts go extinct. There are critical gaps in coextinction theory, and we outline these in a framework to direct future research toward more accurate estimates of coextinction rates. Specifically, the most critical priorities include acquisition of more accurate host data, including the threat status of host species; acquisition of data on the use of hosts by dependent species across a wide array of localities, habitats, and breadth of both hosts and dependents; development of models that incorporate correlates of nonrandom host and dependent extinctions, such as phylogeny and traits that increase extinction-proneness; and determination of whether dependents are being lost before their hosts and adjusting models accordingly. Without synergistic development of better empirical data and more realistic models to estimate the number of cothreatened species and coextinction rates, the contribution of coextinction to global declines in biodiversity will remain unknown and unmanaged.


Assuntos
Extinção Biológica , Animais , Ecossistema
18.
Nature ; 427(6970): 145-8, 2004 Jan 08.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-14712274

RESUMO

Climate change over the past approximately 30 years has produced numerous shifts in the distributions and abundances of species and has been implicated in one species-level extinction. Using projections of species' distributions for future climate scenarios, we assess extinction risks for sample regions that cover some 20% of the Earth's terrestrial surface. Exploring three approaches in which the estimated probability of extinction shows a power-law relationship with geographical range size, we predict, on the basis of mid-range climate-warming scenarios for 2050, that 15-37% of species in our sample of regions and taxa will be 'committed to extinction'. When the average of the three methods and two dispersal scenarios is taken, minimal climate-warming scenarios produce lower projections of species committed to extinction ( approximately 18%) than mid-range ( approximately 24%) and maximum-change ( approximately 35%) scenarios. These estimates show the importance of rapid implementation of technologies to decrease greenhouse gas emissions and strategies for carbon sequestration.


Assuntos
Biodiversidade , Efeito Estufa , Modelos Teóricos , Animais , Carbono/metabolismo , Conservação dos Recursos Naturais , Geografia , Medição de Risco , Especificidade da Espécie , Fatores de Tempo
19.
Ecol Lett ; 11(11): 1135-1146, 2008 Nov.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-18713269

RESUMO

Species distribution models (SDMs) are common tools for assessing the potential impact of climate change on species ranges. Uncertainty in SDM output occurs due to differences among alternate models, species characteristics and scenarios of future climate. While considerable effort is being devoted to identifying and quantifying the first two sources of variation, a greater understanding of climate scenarios and how they affect SDM output is also needed. Climate models are complex tools: variability occurs among alternate simulations, and no single 'best' model exists. The selection of climate scenarios for impacts assessments should not be undertaken arbitrarily - strengths and weakness of different climate models should be considered. In this paper, we provide bioclimatic modellers with an overview of emissions scenarios and climate models, discuss uncertainty surrounding projections of future climate and suggest steps that can be taken to reduce and communicate climate scenario-related uncertainty in assessments of future species responses to climate change.


Assuntos
Clima , Modelos Biológicos , Animais , Simulação por Computador , Demografia , Previsões , Efeito Estufa
20.
Int J Radiat Oncol Biol Phys ; 68(5): 1276-88, 2007 Aug 01.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-17674973

RESUMO

In 2004, the American Society for Therapeutic Radiology and Oncology (ASTRO) published a curriculum for physics education. The document described a 54-hour course. In 2006, the committee reconvened to update the curriculum. The committee is composed of physicists and physicians from various residency program teaching institutions. Simultaneously, members have associations with the American Association of Physicists in Medicine, ASTRO, Association of Residents in Radiation Oncology, American Board of Radiology, and American College of Radiology. Representatives from the latter two organizations are key to provide feedback between the examining organizations and ASTRO. Subjects are based on Accreditation Council for Graduate Medical Education requirements (particles and hyperthermia), whereas the majority of subjects and appropriated hours/subject were developed by consensus. The new curriculum is 55 hours, containing new subjects, redistribution of subjects with updates, and reorganization of core topics. For each subject, learning objectives are provided, and for each lecture hour, a detailed outline of material to be covered is provided. Some changes include a decrease in basic radiologic physics, addition of informatics as a subject, increase in intensity-modulated radiotherapy, and migration of some brachytherapy hours to radiopharmaceuticals. The new curriculum was approved by the ASTRO board in late 2006. It is hoped that physicists will adopt the curriculum for structuring their didactic teaching program, and simultaneously, the American Board of Radiology, for its written examination. The American College of Radiology uses the ASTRO curriculum for their training examination topics. In addition to the curriculum, the committee added suggested references, a glossary, and a condensed version of lectures for a Postgraduate Year 2 resident physics orientation. To ensure continued commitment to a current and relevant curriculum, subject matter will be updated again in 2 years.


Assuntos
Currículo , Internato e Residência , Física/educação , Radioterapia (Especialidade)/educação , Humanos , Sociedades Médicas , Estados Unidos
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