RESUMO
Sustainable Development Goal 14 of the United Nations aims to "conserve and sustainably use the oceans, seas and marine resources for sustainable development". Achieving this goal will require rebuilding the marine life-support systems that deliver the many benefits that society receives from a healthy ocean. Here we document the recovery of marine populations, habitats and ecosystems following past conservation interventions. Recovery rates across studies suggest that substantial recovery of the abundance, structure and function of marine life could be achieved by 2050, if major pressures-including climate change-are mitigated. Rebuilding marine life represents a doable Grand Challenge for humanity, an ethical obligation and a smart economic objective to achieve a sustainable future.
Assuntos
Ecossistema , Espécies em Perigo de Extinção/estatística & dados numéricos , Recuperação e Remediação Ambiental/tendências , Biologia Marinha/tendências , Animais , Extinção Biológica , Peixes , Aquecimento Global/prevenção & controle , Atividades Humanas , HumanosRESUMO
Changes in disturbance regimes due to climate change are increasingly challenging the capacity of ecosystems to absorb recurrent shocks and reassemble afterwards, escalating the risk of widespread ecological collapse of current ecosystems and the emergence of novel assemblages1-3. In marine systems, the production of larvae and recruitment of functionally important species are fundamental processes for rebuilding depleted adult populations, maintaining resilience and avoiding regime shifts in the face of rising environmental pressures4,5. Here we document a regional-scale shift in stock-recruitment relationships of corals along the Great Barrier Reef-the world's largest coral reef system-following unprecedented back-to-back mass bleaching events caused by global warming. As a consequence of mass mortality of adult brood stock in 2016 and 2017 owing to heat stress6, the amount of larval recruitment declined in 2018 by 89% compared to historical levels. For the first time, brooding pocilloporids replaced spawning acroporids as the dominant taxon in the depleted recruitment pool. The collapse in stock-recruitment relationships indicates that the low resistance of adult brood stocks to repeated episodes of coral bleaching is inexorably tied to an impaired capacity for recovery, which highlights the multifaceted processes that underlie the global decline of coral reefs. The extent to which the Great Barrier Reef will be able to recover from the collapse in stock-recruitment relationships remains uncertain, given the projected increased frequency of extreme climate events over the next two decades7.
Assuntos
Antozoários/crescimento & desenvolvimento , Antozoários/fisiologia , Recifes de Corais , Aquecimento Global , Animais , Austrália , Temperatura Alta/efeitos adversos , Larva/fisiologia , IncertezaRESUMO
Global warming is rapidly emerging as a universal threat to ecological integrity and function, highlighting the urgent need for a better understanding of the impact of heat exposure on the resilience of ecosystems and the people who depend on them 1 . Here we show that in the aftermath of the record-breaking marine heatwave on the Great Barrier Reef in 2016 2 , corals began to die immediately on reefs where the accumulated heat exposure exceeded a critical threshold of degree heating weeks, which was 3-4 °C-weeks. After eight months, an exposure of 6 °C-weeks or more drove an unprecedented, regional-scale shift in the composition of coral assemblages, reflecting markedly divergent responses to heat stress by different taxa. Fast-growing staghorn and tabular corals suffered a catastrophic die-off, transforming the three-dimensionality and ecological functioning of 29% of the 3,863 reefs comprising the world's largest coral reef system. Our study bridges the gap between the theory and practice of assessing the risk of ecosystem collapse, under the emerging framework for the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List of Ecosystems 3 , by rigorously defining both the initial and collapsed states, identifying the major driver of change, and establishing quantitative collapse thresholds. The increasing prevalence of post-bleaching mass mortality of corals represents a radical shift in the disturbance regimes of tropical reefs, both adding to and far exceeding the influence of recurrent cyclones and other local pulse events, presenting a fundamental challenge to the long-term future of these iconic ecosystems.
Assuntos
Antozoários/crescimento & desenvolvimento , Recifes de Corais , Aquecimento Global , Animais , Antozoários/classificação , Austrália , Temperatura Alta/efeitos adversos , Dinâmica PopulacionalRESUMO
Coral reefs support immense biodiversity and provide important ecosystem services to many millions of people. Yet reefs are degrading rapidly in response to numerous anthropogenic drivers. In the coming centuries, reefs will run the gauntlet of climate change, and rising temperatures will transform them into new configurations, unlike anything observed previously by humans. Returning reefs to past configurations is no longer an option. Instead, the global challenge is to steer reefs through the Anthropocene era in a way that maintains their biological functions. Successful navigation of this transition will require radical changes in the science, management and governance of coral reefs.
Assuntos
Aclimatação , Conservação dos Recursos Naturais/métodos , Conservação dos Recursos Naturais/tendências , Recifes de Corais , Ecologia/métodos , Ecologia/tendências , Aquecimento Global/prevenção & controle , Aquecimento Global/estatística & dados numéricos , Atividades Humanas , Animais , Antozoários/fisiologia , Dióxido de Carbono/análise , Água do Mar/análise , Água do Mar/químicaRESUMO
During 2015-2016, record temperatures triggered a pan-tropical episode of coral bleaching, the third global-scale event since mass bleaching was first documented in the 1980s. Here we examine how and why the severity of recurrent major bleaching events has varied at multiple scales, using aerial and underwater surveys of Australian reefs combined with satellite-derived sea surface temperatures. The distinctive geographic footprints of recurrent bleaching on the Great Barrier Reef in 1998, 2002 and 2016 were determined by the spatial pattern of sea temperatures in each year. Water quality and fishing pressure had minimal effect on the unprecedented bleaching in 2016, suggesting that local protection of reefs affords little or no resistance to extreme heat. Similarly, past exposure to bleaching in 1998 and 2002 did not lessen the severity of bleaching in 2016. Consequently, immediate global action to curb future warming is essential to secure a future for coral reefs.
Assuntos
Antozoários/metabolismo , Recifes de Corais , Aquecimento Global/estatística & dados numéricos , Animais , Austrália , Clorofila/metabolismo , Clorofila A , Conservação dos Recursos Naturais/tendências , Aquecimento Global/prevenção & controle , Água do Mar/análise , TemperaturaRESUMO
Ecosystems have always been shaped by disturbances, but many of these events are becoming larger, more severe and more frequent. The recovery capacity of depleted populations depends on the frequency of disturbances, the spatial distribution of mortality and the scale of dispersal. Here, we show that four mass coral bleaching events on the Great Barrier Reef (in 1998, 2002, 2016 and 2017) each had markedly larger disturbance footprints and were less patchy than a severe category 5 tropical cyclone (Cyclone Yasi, 2011). Severely bleached reefs in 2016 and 2017 were isolated from the nearest lightly affected reefs by up to 146 and 200 km, respectively. In contrast, reefs damaged by Cyclone Yasi were on average 20 km away from relatively undisturbed reefs, well within the estimated range of larval dispersal for most corals. Based on these results, we present a model of coral reef disturbance and recovery to examine (1) how the spatial clustering of disturbances modifies large-scale recovery rates; and (2) how recovery rates are shaped by species' dispersal abilities. Our findings illustrate that the spatial footprint of the recent mass bleaching events poses an unprecedented threat to the resilience of coral species in human history, a threat that is even larger than the amount of mortality suggests.
Assuntos
Antozoários , Tempestades Ciclônicas , Animais , Recifes de Corais , Ecossistema , Humanos , LarvaRESUMO
Corals are major contributors to a range of key ecosystem functions on tropical reefs, including calcification, photosynthesis, nutrient cycling, and the provision of habitat structure. The abundance of corals is declining at multiple scales, and the species composition of assemblages is responding to escalating human pressures, including anthropogenic global warming. An urgent challenge is to understand the functional consequences of these shifts in abundance and composition in different biogeographical contexts. While global patterns of coral species richness are well known, the biogeography of coral functions in provinces and domains with high and low redundancy is poorly understood. Here, we quantify the functional traits of all currently recognized zooxanthellate coral species (n = 821) in both the Indo-Pacific and Atlantic domains to examine the relationships between species richness and the diversity and redundancy of functional trait space. We find that trait diversity is remarkably conserved (>75% of the global total) along latitudinal and longitudinal gradients in species richness, falling away only in species-poor provinces (n < 200), such as the Persian Gulf (52% of the global total), Hawaii (37%), the Caribbean (26%), and the East-Pacific (20%), where redundancy is also diminished. In the more species-poor provinces, large and ecologically important areas of trait space are empty, or occupied by just a few, highly distinctive species. These striking biogeographical differences in redundancy could affect the resilience of critical reef functions and highlight the vulnerability of relatively depauperate, peripheral locations, which are often a low priority for targeted conservation efforts.
Assuntos
Distribuição Animal , Antozoários/classificação , Antozoários/fisiologia , Biodiversidade , Animais , Análise de Componente PrincipalRESUMO
The disturbance regimes of ecosystems are changing, and prospects for continued recovery remain unclear. New assemblages with altered species composition may be deficient in key functional traits. Alternatively, important traits may be sustained by species that replace those in decline (response diversity). Here, we quantify the recovery and response diversity of coral assemblages using case studies of disturbance in three locations. Despite return trajectories of coral cover, the original assemblages with diverse functional attributes failed to recover at each location. Response diversity and the reassembly of trait space was limited, and varied according to biogeographic differences in the attributes of dominant, rapidly recovering species. The deficits in recovering assemblages identified here suggest that the return of coral cover cannot assure the reassembly of reef trait diversity, and that shortening intervals between disturbances can limit recovery among functionally important species.
Assuntos
Antozoários/fisiologia , Biodiversidade , Recifes de Corais , Fenótipo , Animais , Padrões de HerançaRESUMO
The age or size structure of a population has a marked influence on its demography and reproductive capacity. While declines in coral cover are well documented, concomitant shifts in the size-frequency distribution of coral colonies are rarely measured at large spatial scales. Here, we document major shifts in the colony size structure of coral populations along the 2300 km length of the Great Barrier Reef relative to historical baselines (1995/1996). Coral colony abundances on reef crests and slopes have declined sharply across all colony size classes and in all coral taxa compared to historical baselines. Declines were particularly pronounced in the northern and central regions of the Great Barrier Reef, following mass coral bleaching in 2016 and 2017. The relative abundances of large colonies remained relatively stable, but this apparent stability masks steep declines in absolute abundance. The potential for recovery of older fecund corals is uncertain given the increasing frequency and intensity of disturbance events. The systematic decline in smaller colonies across regions, habitats and taxa, suggests that a decline in recruitment has further eroded the recovery potential and resilience of coral populations.
Assuntos
Antozoários/fisiologia , Recifes de Corais , Animais , Austrália , Fertilidade , ReproduçãoRESUMO
Global environmental change challenges humanity because of its broad scale, long-lasting, and potentially irreversible consequences. Key to an effective response is to use an appropriate scientific lens to peer through the mist of uncertainty that threatens timely and appropriate decisions surrounding these complex issues. Identifying such corridors of clarity could help understanding critical phenomena or causal pathways sufficiently well to justify taking policy action. To this end, we suggest four principles: Follow the strongest and most direct path between policy decisions on outcomes, focus on finding sufficient evidence for policy purpose, prioritize no-regrets policies by avoiding options with controversial, uncertain, or immeasurable benefits, aim for getting the big picture roughly right rather than focusing on details.
RESUMO
Environmental anomalies that trigger adverse physiological responses and mortality are occurring with increasing frequency due to climate change. At species' range peripheries, environmental anomalies are particularly concerning because species often exist at their environmental tolerance limits and may not be able to migrate to escape unfavourable conditions. Here, we investigated the bleaching response and mortality of 14 coral genera across high-latitude eastern Australia during a global heat stress event in 2016. We evaluated whether the severity of assemblage-scale and genus-level bleaching responses was associated with cumulative heat stress and/or local environmental history, including long-term mean temperatures during the hottest month of each year (SSTLTMAX ), and annual fluctuations in water temperature (SSTVAR ) and solar irradiance (PARZVAR ). The most severely-bleached genera included species that were either endemic to the region (Pocillopora aliciae) or rare in the tropics (e.g. Porites heronensis). Pocillopora spp., in particular, showed high rates of immediate mortality. Bleaching severity of Pocillopora was high where SSTLTMAX was low or PARZVAR was high, whereas bleaching severity of Porites was directly associated with cumulative heat stress. While many tropical Acropora species are extremely vulnerable to bleaching, the Acropora species common at high latitudes, such as A. glauca and A. solitaryensis, showed little incidence of bleaching and immediate mortality. Two other regionally-abundant genera, Goniastrea and Turbinaria, were also largely unaffected by the thermal anomaly. The severity of assemblage-scale bleaching responses was poorly explained by the environmental parameters we examined. Instead, the severity of assemblage-scale bleaching was associated with local differences in species abundance and taxon-specific bleaching responses. The marked taxonomic disparity in bleaching severity, coupled with high mortality of high-latitude endemics, point to climate-driven simplification of assemblage structures and progressive homogenisation of reef functions at these high-latitude locations.
Assuntos
Antozoários , Animais , Austrália , Mudança Climática , Recifes de Corais , Refúgio de Vida Selvagem , TemperaturaRESUMO
Abundance patterns in ecological communities have important implications for biodiversity maintenance and ecosystem functioning. However, ecological theory has been largely unsuccessful at capturing multiple macroecological abundance patterns simultaneously. Here, we propose a parsimonious model that unifies widespread ecological relationships involving local aggregation, species-abundance distributions, and species associations, and we test this model against the metacommunity structure of reef-building corals and coral reef fishes across the western and central Pacific. For both corals and fishes, the unified model simultaneously captures extremely well local species-abundance distributions, interspecific variation in the strength of spatial aggregation, patterns of community similarity, species accumulation, and regional species richness, performing far better than alternative models also examined here and in previous work on coral reefs. Our approach contributes to the development of synthetic theory for large-scale patterns of community structure in nature, and to addressing ongoing challenges in biodiversity conservation at macroecological scales.
Assuntos
Antozoários/fisiologia , Biodiversidade , Recifes de Corais , Peixes/fisiologia , Modelos Biológicos , Animais , Oceano Pacífico , Densidade DemográficaRESUMO
INTRODUCTION: Childbirth-related perineal trauma (CRPT) is the most common complication of childbirth affecting 80% of women overall after vaginal birth. There remains a lack of comprehensive evidence relating to the prevalence of subsequent health problems. Current evidence is related to short-term outcomes, for example, pain, but there is less known about longer-term outcomes such as infection, wound dehiscence, pelvic floor function and psychological outcomes. This is a protocol for a cohort study assessing outcomes of women after CRPT. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: A multicentre, prospective UK cohort study aiming to include 1000 women. All women who have sustained CRPT will be eligible for inclusion and will be followed-up for 12 months after childbirth. The primary outcome will be perineal infection at 6 weeks post-birth. Secondary outcomes will include antibiotic use for perineal infection, wound breakdown, use of analgesia, the requirement for admission or surgical intervention, urinary and faecal incontinence, anxiety and depressive symptoms, sexual function and impact on daily activities. Outcomes will be measured at 6 weeks, 6 months and 12 months post partum, with some outcomes being measured at all time points and others at selected most appropriate time points only. Outcome data will be obtained from a review of clinical notes and from patient questionnaires. Simple descriptive statistics will be used to summarise characteristics and outcomes, with categorical variables expressed as percentages and continuous variables as mean averages, alongside the corresponding standard deviatons. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: Ethical approval has been granted by the Research Ethics Council with reference 23/WA/0169. Data collected from the Childbirth Acquired Perineal Trauma (CHAPTER) cohort study will highlight the prevalence and type of complications after CRPT and which women are more at risk. After the conclusion of this study, findings will be used to work with governmental organisations and Royal Colleges to target resources and ultimately improve care.
Assuntos
Parto Obstétrico , Períneo , Humanos , Feminino , Períneo/lesões , Estudos Prospectivos , Reino Unido/epidemiologia , Gravidez , Parto Obstétrico/efeitos adversos , Complicações do Trabalho de Parto/epidemiologia , Projetos de Pesquisa , Adulto , Parto/psicologiaRESUMO
We examined the development of coral reef science and the policies, institutions, and governance frameworks for management of coral reefs in China in order to highlight the wicked problem of preserving reefs while simultaneously promoting human development and nation building. China and other sovereign states in the region are experiencing unprecedented economic expansion, rapid population growth, mass migration, widespread coastal development, and loss of habitat. We analyzed a large, fragmented literature on the condition of coral reefs in China and the disputed territories of the South China Sea. We found that coral abundance has declined by at least 80% over the past 30 years on coastal fringing reefs along the Chinese mainland and adjoining Hainan Island. On offshore atolls and archipelagos claimed by 6 countries in the South China Sea, coral cover has declined from an average of >60% to around 20% within the past 10-15 years. Climate change has affected these reefs far less than coastal development, pollution, overfishing, and destructive fishing practices. Ironically, these widespread declines in the condition of reefs are unfolding as China's research and reef-management capacity are rapidly expanding. Before the loss of corals becomes irreversible, governance of China's coastal reefs could be improved by increasing public awareness of declining ecosystem services, by providing financial support for training of reef scientists and managers, by improving monitoring of coral reef dynamics and condition to better inform policy development, and by enforcing existing regulations that could protect coral reefs. In the South China Sea, changes in policy and legal frameworks, refinement of governance structures, and cooperation among neighboring countries are urgently needed to develop cooperative management of contested offshore reefs.
Assuntos
Conservação dos Recursos Naturais/legislação & jurisprudência , Recifes de Corais , Política Ambiental/legislação & jurisprudência , Animais , Antozoários/crescimento & desenvolvimento , China , Mudança Climática , Meio Ambiente , Pesqueiros , Crescimento DemográficoRESUMO
Marine ecosystems are in decline. New transformational changes in governance are urgently required to cope with overfishing, pollution, global changes, and other drivers of degradation. Here we explore social, political, and ecological aspects of a transformation in governance of Chile's coastal marine resources, from 1980 to today. Critical elements in the initial preparatory phase of the transformation were (i) recognition of the depletion of resource stocks, (ii) scientific knowledge on the ecology and resilience of targeted species and their role in ecosystem dynamics, and (iii) demonstration-scale experimental trials, building on smaller-scale scientific experiments, which identified new management pathways. The trials improved cooperation among scientists and fishers, integrating knowledge and establishing trust. Political turbulence and resource stock collapse provided a window of opportunity that triggered the transformation, supported by new enabling legislation. Essential elements to navigate this transformation were the ability to network knowledge from the local level to influence the decision-making processes at the national level, and a preexisting social network of fishers that provided political leverage through a national confederation of artisanal fishing collectives. The resultant governance scheme includes a revolutionary national system of marine tenure that allocates user rights and responsibilities to fisher collectives. Although fine tuning is necessary to build resilience of this new regime, this transformation has improved the sustainability of the interconnected social-ecological system. Our analysis of how this transformation unfolded provides insights into how the Chilean system could be further developed and identifies generalized pathways for improved governance of marine resources around the world.
Assuntos
Conservação dos Recursos Naturais/métodos , Ecossistema , Pesqueiros , Água do Mar , Animais , Chile , Peixes , Política PúblicaRESUMO
The Great Barrier Reef (GBR) provides a globally significant demonstration of the effectiveness of large-scale networks of marine reserves in contributing to integrated, adaptive management. Comprehensive review of available evidence shows major, rapid benefits of no-take areas for targeted fish and sharks, in both reef and nonreef habitats, with potential benefits for fisheries as well as biodiversity conservation. Large, mobile species like sharks benefit less than smaller, site-attached fish. Critically, reserves also appear to benefit overall ecosystem health and resilience: outbreaks of coral-eating, crown-of-thorns starfish appear less frequent on no-take reefs, which consequently have higher abundance of coral, the very foundation of reef ecosystems. Effective marine reserves require regular review of compliance: fish abundances in no-entry zones suggest that even no-take zones may be significantly depleted due to poaching. Spatial analyses comparing zoning with seabed biodiversity or dugong distributions illustrate significant benefits from application of best-practice conservation principles in data-poor situations. Increases in the marine reserve network in 2004 affected fishers, but preliminary economic analysis suggests considerable net benefits, in terms of protecting environmental and tourism values. Relative to the revenue generated by reef tourism, current expenditure on protection is minor. Recent implementation of an Outlook Report provides regular, formal review of environmental condition and management and links to policy responses, key aspects of adaptive management. Given the major threat posed by climate change, the expanded network of marine reserves provides a critical and cost-effective contribution to enhancing the resilience of the Great Barrier Reef.
Assuntos
Conservação dos Recursos Naturais/métodos , Biologia Marinha/organização & administração , Animais , Antozoários , Biodiversidade , Biomassa , Conservação dos Recursos Naturais/economia , Conservação dos Recursos Naturais/legislação & jurisprudência , Análise Custo-Benefício , Dugong , Ecossistema , Pesqueiros , Peixes , Cadeia Alimentar , Humanos , Biologia Marinha/legislação & jurisprudência , Oceanos e Mares , Dinâmica Populacional , Queensland , Tubarões , Fatores Socioeconômicos , TartarugasRESUMO
BACKGROUND: Severity scores in pneumonia and sepsis are being applied to SARS-CoV-2 infection. We aimed to assess whether these severity scores are accurate predictors of early adverse outcomes in COVID-19. METHODS: We conducted a multicentre observational study of hospitalised SARS-CoV-2 infection. We assessed risk scores (CURB65, qSOFA, Lac-CURB65, MuLBSTA and NEWS2) in relation to admission to intensive care or death within 7 days of admission, defined as early severe adverse events (ESAE). The 4C Mortality Score was also assessed in a sub-cohort of patients. FINDINGS: In 2,387 participants, the overall mortality was 18%. In all scores examined, increasing score was associated with increased risk of ESAE. Area under the curve (AUC) to predict ESAE for CURB65, qSOFA, Lac-CURB65, MuLBSTA and NEWS2 were 0.61, 0.62, 0.59, 0.59 and 0.68, respectively. AUC to predict ESAE was 0.60 with ISARIC 4C Mortality Score. CONCLUSION: None of the scores examined accurately predicted ESAE in SARS-CoV-2 infection. Non-validated scores should not be used to inform clinical decision making in COVID-19.
Assuntos
COVID-19 , Pneumonia , Mortalidade Hospitalar , Humanos , Pneumonia/diagnóstico , Pneumonia/epidemiologia , Prognóstico , Estudos Retrospectivos , SARS-CoV-2 , Índice de Gravidade de DoençaRESUMO
Sexuality and reproductive mode are two fundamental life-history traits that exhibit largely unexplained macroevolutionary patterns among the major groups of multicellular organisms. For example, the cnidarian class Anthozoa (corals and anemones) is mainly comprised of gonochoric (separate sex) brooders or spawners, while one order, Scleractinia (skeleton-forming corals), appears to be mostly hermaphroditic spawners. Here, using the most complete phylogeny of scleractinians, we reconstruct how evolutionary transitions between sexual systems (gonochorism versus hermaphrodism) and reproductive modes (brooding versus spawning) have generated large-scale taxonomic patterns in these characters. Hermaphrodites have independently evolved in three large, distantly related lineages consisting of mostly reef-building species. Reproductive mode in corals has evolved at twice the rate of sexuality, while the evolution of sexuality has been heavily biased: gonochorism is over 100 times more likely to be lost than gained, and can only be acquired by brooders. This circuitous evolutionary pathway accounts for the prevalence of hermaphroditic spawners among reef-forming scleractinians, despite their ancient gonochoric heritage.