CT pulmonary angiography-based scoring system to predict the prognosis of acute pulmonary embolism.

BACKGROUND: The purpose is to develop a comprehensive risk-scoring system based on CT findings for predicting 30-day mortality after acute pulmonary embolism (PE), and to compare it with PE Severity Index (PESI). MATERIALS AND METHODS: The study included consecutive 1698 CT pulmonary angiograms (CTPA) positive for acute PE performed at a single institution (2003-2010). Two radiologists independently assessed each study regarding clinically relevant findings and then performed adjudication. These variables plus patient clinical information were included to build a LASSO logistic regression model to predict 30-day mortality. A point score for each significant variable was generated based on the final model. PESI score was calculated in 568 patients who visited the hospital after 2007. RESULTS: Inter-reader agreements of interpretations were >95% except for septal bowing (92%). The final prediction model showed superior ability over PESI (AUC = 0.822 vs 0.745) for predicting all-cause 30-day mortality (12.4%). The scoring system based on the significant variables (age (years), pleural effusion (+20), pericardial effusion (+20), lung/liver/bone lesions suggesting malignancy (+60), chronic interstitial lung disease (+20), enlarged lymph node in thorax (+20), and ascites (+40)) stratified patients into 4 severity categories, with mortality rates of 0.008% in class-I (≤50 pt), 3.8% in class-II (51-100 pt), 17.6% in class-III (101-150 pt), and 40.9% in class-IV (>150 pt). The mortality rate in the CTPA-high risk category (class-IV) was higher than those in the PESI's high risk (27.4%) and very high risk (25.2%) categories. CONCLUSION: The CTPA-based model was superior to PESI in predicting 30-day mortality. Incorporating the CTPA-based scoring system into image interpretation workflows may help physicians to select the most appropriate management approach for individual patients.

Association Between Confidence Level of Acute Pulmonary Embolism Diagnosis on CTPA images and Clinical Outcomes.

RATIONALE AND OBJECTIVES: The purpose was to evaluate clinical characteristics associated with low confidence in diagnosis of acute pulmonary embolism (PE) as expressed in computed tomography pulmonary angiography (CTPA) reports and to evaluate the effect of confidence level in PE diagnosis on patient clinical outcomes. MATERIALS AND METHODS: This study included radiology reports from 1664 consecutive CTPA considered positive for acute PE (8/2003-5/2010). All reports were retrospectively assessed for the level of confidence in diagnosis. Baseline characteristics and outcomes (therapies related to PE and short-term mortality) were compared between high and low confidence groups. Multivariable logistic and Cox regression analyses were used to analyze the relationship between the confidence level and outcomes. RESULTS: One-hundred sixty of 1664 (9.6%) reports had language that reflected a low confidence in PE diagnosis. The low confidence group had smaller (segmental and subsegmental) suspected emboli (prevalence, 72.5% vs. 50.7%; P < .001) and more comorbidities. The low confidence group had a lower likelihood of receiving PE-related therapies (adjusted odds ratio [OR], 0.18; 95% confidence interval, 0.10-031, P < .001), but there was no change in the all-cause and PE-related 30-day and/or 90-day mortality (OR of death for low confidence, 0.81-1.13, P values > .5). CONCLUSIONS: Roughly 10% of positive CTPA reports had uncertainty in PE findings, and patients with reports categorized as low confidence had smaller emboli and more comorbidities. Although the low confidence group was less likely to receive PE-related therapies, patients in this group were not associated with higher probability of short-term mortality.