Quantifying NOx point sources with Landsat and Sentinel-2 satellite observations of NO2 plumes.

We show that the Landsat and Sentinel-2 satellites can detect NO2 plumes from large point sources at 10 to 60 m pixel resolution in their blue and ultrablue bands. We use the resulting NO2 plume imagery to quantify nitrogen oxides (NOx) emission rates for several power plants in Saudi Arabia and the United States, including a 13-y analysis of 132 Landsat plumes from Riyadh power plant 9 from 2009 through 2021. NO2 in the plumes initially increases with distance from the source, likely reflecting recovery from ozone titration. The fine pixel resolutions of Landsat and Sentinel-2 enable separation of individual point sources and stacks, including in urban background, and the long records enable examination of multidecadal emission trends. Our inferred NOx emission rates are consistent with previous estimates to within a precision of about 30%. Sources down to ~500 kg h-1 can be detected over bright, quasi-homogeneous surfaces. The 2009 to 2021 data for Riyadh power plant 9 show a strong summer peak in emissions, consistent with increased power demand for air conditioning, and a marginal slow decrease following the introduction of Saudi Arabia's Ambient Air Standard 2012.

Geostationary satellite observations of extreme and transient methane emissions from oil and gas infrastructure.

We demonstrate geostationary satellite monitoring of large transient methane point sources with the US Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES). GOES provides continuous 5- to 10-min coverage of the Americas at 1 to 2 km nadir pixel resolution in two shortwave infrared spectral bands from which large methane plumes can be retrieved. We track the full evolution of an extreme methane release from the El Encino-La Laguna natural gas pipeline in Durango, Mexico on 12 May 2019. The release lasted 3 h at a variable rate of 260 to 550 metric tons of methane per hour and totaled 1,130 to 1,380 metric tons. We report several other detections of transient point sources from oil/gas infrastructure, from which we infer a detection limit of 10 to 100 t h-1. Our results show that extreme releases of methane can last less than an hour, as from deliberate venting, and would thus be difficult to identify and quantify with low-Earth orbit satellites.

Observation-derived 2010-2019 trends in methane emissions and intensities from US oil and gas fields tied to activity metrics.

The United States is the world's largest oil/gas methane emitter according to current national reports. Reducing these emissions is a top priority in the US government's climate action plan. Here, we use a 2010 to 2019 high-resolution inversion of surface and satellite observations of atmospheric methane to quantify emission trends for individual oil/gas production regions in North America and relate them to production and infrastructure. We estimate a mean US oil/gas methane emission of 14.8 (12.4 to 16.5) Tg a-1 for 2010 to 2019, 70% higher than reported by the US Environmental Protection Agency. While emissions in Canada and Mexico decreased over the period, US emissions increased from 2010 to 2014, decreased until 2017, and rose again afterward. Increases were driven by the largest production regions (Permian, Anadarko, Marcellus), while emissions in the smaller production regions generally decreased. Much of the year-to-year emission variability can be explained by oil/gas production rates, active well counts, and new wells drilled, with the 2014 to 2017 decrease driven by reduction in new wells and the 2017 to 2019 surge driven by upswing of production. We find a steady decrease in the oil/gas methane intensity (emission per unit methane gas production) for almost all major US production regions. The mean US methane intensity decreased from 3.7% in 2010 to 2.5% in 2019. If the methane intensity for the oil/gas supply chain continues to decrease at this pace, we may expect a 32% decrease in US oil/gas emissions by 2030 despite projected increases in production.

Catalytic role of formaldehyde in particulate matter formation.

Formaldehyde (HCHO), the simplest and most abundant carbonyl in the atmosphere, contributes to particulate matter (PM) formation via two in-cloud processing pathways. First, in a catalytic pathway, HCHO reacts with hydrogen peroxide (H2O2) to form hydroxymethyl hydroperoxide (HMHP), which rapidly oxidizes dissolved sulfur dioxide (SO2,aq) to sulfate, regenerating HCHO. Second, HCHO reacts with dissolved SO2,aq to form hydroxymethanesulfonate (HMS), which upon oxidation with the hydroxyl radical (OH) forms sulfate and also reforms HCHO. Chemical transport model simulations using rate coefficients from laboratory studies of the reaction rate of HMHP with SO2,aq show that the HMHP pathways reduce the SO2 lifetime by up to a factor of 2 and contribute up to ∼18% of global sulfate. This contribution rises to >50% in isoprene-dominated regions such as the Amazon. Combined with recent results on HMS, this work demonstrates that the one-carbon molecules HMHP and HCHO contribute significantly to global PM, with HCHO playing a crucial catalytic role.

Transpacific Transport of Asian Peroxyacetyl Nitrate (PAN) Observed from Satellite: Implications for Ozone.

Peroxyacetyl nitrate (PAN) is produced in the atmosphere by photochemical oxidation of non-methane volatile organic compounds in the presence of nitrogen oxides (NOx), and it can be transported over long distances at cold temperatures before decomposing thermally to release NOx in the remote troposphere. It is both a tracer and a precursor for transpacific ozone pollution transported from East Asia to North America. Here, we directly demonstrate this transport with PAN satellite observations from the infrared atmospheric sounding interferometer (IASI). We reprocess the IASI PAN retrievals by replacing the constant prior vertical profile with vertical shape factors from the GEOS-Chem model that capture the contrasting shapes observed from aircraft over South Korea (KORUS-AQ) and the North Pacific (ATom). The reprocessed IASI PAN observations show maximum transpacific transport of East Asian pollution in spring, with events over the Northeast Pacific offshore from the Western US associated in GEOS-Chem with elevated ozone in the lower free troposphere. However, these events increase surface ozone in the US by less than 1 ppbv because the East Asian pollution mainly remains offshore as it circulates the Pacific High.

Ozone pollution in the North China Plain spreading into the late-winter haze season.

Surface ozone is a severe air pollution problem in the North China Plain, which is home to 300 million people. Ozone concentrations are highest in summer, driven by fast photochemical production of hydrogen oxide radicals (HOx) that can overcome the radical titration caused by high emissions of nitrogen oxides (NOx) from fuel combustion. Ozone has been very low during winter haze (particulate) pollution episodes. However, the abrupt decrease of NOx emissions following the COVID-19 lockdown in January 2020 reveals a switch to fast ozone production during winter haze episodes with maximum daily 8-h average (MDA8) ozone concentrations of 60 to 70 parts per billion. We reproduce this switch with the GEOS-Chem model, where the fast production of ozone is driven by HOx radicals from photolysis of formaldehyde, overcoming radical titration from the decreased NOx emissions. Formaldehyde is produced by oxidation of reactive volatile organic compounds (VOCs), which have very high emissions in the North China Plain. This remarkable switch to an ozone-producing regime in January-February following the lockdown illustrates a more general tendency from 2013 to 2019 of increasing winter-spring ozone in the North China Plain and increasing association of high ozone with winter haze events, as pollution control efforts have targeted NOx emissions (30% decrease) while VOC emissions have remained constant. Decreasing VOC emissions would avoid further spreading of severe ozone pollution events into the winter-spring season.

Aqueous production of secondary organic aerosol from fossil-fuel emissions in winter Beijing haze.

Secondary organic aerosol (SOA) produced by atmospheric oxidation of primary emitted precursors is a major contributor to fine particulate matter (PM2.5) air pollution worldwide. Observations during winter haze pollution episodes in urban China show that most of this SOA originates from fossil-fuel combustion but the chemical mechanisms involved are unclear. Here we report field observations in a Beijing winter haze event that reveal fast aqueous-phase conversion of fossil-fuel primary organic aerosol (POA) to SOA at high relative humidity. Analyses of aerosol mass spectra and elemental ratios indicate that ring-breaking oxidation of POA aromatic species, leading to functionalization as carbonyls and carboxylic acids, may serve as the dominant mechanism for this SOA formation. A POA origin for SOA could explain why SOA has been decreasing over the 2013-2018 period in response to POA emission controls even as emissions of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) have remained flat.

A Gridded Inventory of Annual 2012-2018 U.S. Anthropogenic Methane Emissions.

Nationally reported greenhouse gas inventories are a core component of the Paris Agreement's transparency framework. Comparisons with emission estimates derived from atmospheric observations help identify improvements to reduce uncertainties and increase the confidence in reported values. To facilitate comparisons over the contiguous United States, we present a 0.1° × 0.1° gridded inventory of annual 2012-2018 anthropogenic methane emissions, allocated to 26 individual source categories, with scale-dependent error estimates. Our inventory is consistent with the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks (GHGI), submitted to the United Nations in 2020. Total emissions and patterns (spatial/temporal) reflect the activity and emission factor data underlying the GHGI, including many updates relative to a previous gridded version of the GHGI that has been extensively compared with observations. These underlying data are not generally available in global gridded inventories, and comparison to EDGAR version 6 shows large spatial differences, particularly for the oil and gas sectors. We also find strong regional variability across all sources in annual 2012-2018 spatial trends, highlighting the importance of understanding regional- and facility-level activities. Our inventory represents the first time series of gridded GHGI methane emissions and enables robust comparisons of emissions and their trends with atmospheric observations.

Photochemistry of oxidized Hg(I) and Hg(II) species suggests missing mercury oxidation in the troposphere.

Mercury (Hg), a global contaminant, is emitted mainly in its elemental form Hg0 to the atmosphere where it is oxidized to reactive HgII compounds, which efficiently deposit to surface ecosystems. Therefore, the chemical cycling between the elemental and oxidized Hg forms in the atmosphere determines the scale and geographical pattern of global Hg deposition. Recent advances in the photochemistry of gas-phase oxidized HgI and HgII species postulate their photodissociation back to Hg0 as a crucial step in the atmospheric Hg redox cycle. However, the significance of these photodissociation mechanisms on atmospheric Hg chemistry, lifetime, and surface deposition remains uncertain. Here we implement a comprehensive and quantitative mechanism of the photochemical and thermal atmospheric reactions between Hg0, HgI, and HgII species in a global model and evaluate the results against atmospheric Hg observations. We find that the photochemistry of HgI and HgII leads to insufficient Hg oxidation globally. The combined efficient photoreduction of HgI and HgII to Hg0 competes with thermal oxidation of Hg0, resulting in a large model overestimation of 99% of measured Hg0 and underestimation of 51% of oxidized Hg and ∼66% of HgII wet deposition. This in turn leads to a significant increase in the calculated global atmospheric Hg lifetime of 20 mo, which is unrealistically longer than the 3-6-mo range based on observed atmospheric Hg variability. These results show that the HgI and HgII photoreduction processes largely offset the efficiency of bromine-initiated Hg0 oxidation and reveal missing Hg oxidation processes in the troposphere.

Anthropogenic drivers of 2013-2017 trends in summer surface ozone in China.

Observations of surface ozone available from ∼1,000 sites across China for the past 5 years (2013-2017) show severe summertime pollution and regionally variable trends. We resolve the effect of meteorological variability on the ozone trends by using a multiple linear regression model. The residual of this regression shows increasing ozone trends of 1-3 ppbv a-1 in megacity clusters of eastern China that we attribute to changes in anthropogenic emissions. By contrast, ozone decreased in some areas of southern China. Anthropogenic NOx emissions in China are estimated to have decreased by 21% during 2013-2017, whereas volatile organic compounds (VOCs) emissions changed little. Decreasing NOx would increase ozone under the VOC-limited conditions thought to prevail in urban China while decreasing ozone under rural NOx-limited conditions. However, simulations with the Goddard Earth Observing System Chemical Transport Model (GEOS-Chem) indicate that a more important factor for ozone trends in the North China Plain is the ∼40% decrease of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) over the 2013-2017 period, slowing down the aerosol sink of hydroperoxy (HO2) radicals and thus stimulating ozone production.

Improved Mechanistic Model of the Atmospheric Redox Chemistry of Mercury.

We present a new chemical mechanism for Hg0/HgI/HgII atmospheric cycling, including recent laboratory and computational data, and implement it in the GEOS-Chem global atmospheric chemistry model for comparison to observations. Our mechanism includes the oxidation of Hg0 by Br and OH, subsequent oxidation of HgI by ozone and radicals, respeciation of HgII in aerosols and cloud droplets, and speciated HgII photolysis in the gas and aqueous phases. The tropospheric Hg lifetime against deposition in the model is 5.5 months, consistent with observational constraints. The model reproduces the observed global surface Hg0 concentrations and HgII wet deposition fluxes. Br and OH make comparable contributions to global net oxidation of Hg0 to HgII. Ozone is the principal HgI oxidant, enabling the efficient oxidation of Hg0 to HgII by OH. BrHgIIOH and HgII(OH)2, the initial HgII products of Hg0 oxidation, respeciate in aerosols and clouds to organic and inorganic complexes, and volatilize to photostable forms. Reduction of HgII to Hg0 takes place largely through photolysis of aqueous HgII-organic complexes. 71% of model HgII deposition is to the oceans. Major uncertainties for atmospheric Hg chemistry modeling include Br concentrations, stability and reactions of HgI, and speciation and photoreduction of HgII in aerosols and clouds.

US COVID-19 Shutdown Demonstrates Importance of Background NO2 in Inferring NOx Emissions From Satellite NO2 Observations.

Satellite nitrogen dioxide (NO2) measurements are used extensively to infer nitrogen oxide emissions and their trends, but interpretation can be complicated by background contributions to the NO2 column sensed from space. We use the step decrease of US anthropogenic emissions from the COVID-19 shutdown to compare the responses of NO2 concentrations observed at surface network sites and from satellites (Ozone Monitoring Instrument [OMI], Tropospheric Ozone Monitoring Instrument [TROPOMI]). After correcting for differences in meteorology, surface NO2 measurements for 2020 show decreases of 20% in March-April and 10% in May-August compared to 2019. The satellites show much weaker responses in March-June and no decrease in July-August, consistent with a large background contribution to the NO2 column. Inspection of the long-term OMI trend over remote US regions shows a rising summertime NO2 background from 2010 to 2019 potentially attributable to wildfires.

Quantifying Time-Averaged Methane Emissions from Individual Coal Mine Vents with GHGSat-D Satellite Observations.

Satellite observations of atmospheric methane plumes offer a means for global mapping of methane point sources. Here we use the GHGSat-D satellite instrument with 50 m effective spatial resolution and 9-18% single-pass column precision to quantify mean source rates for three coal mine vents (San Juan, United States; Appin, Australia; and Bulianta, China) over a two-year period (2016-2018). This involves averaging wind-rotated observations from 14 to 24 overpasses to achieve satisfactory signal-to-noise. Our wind rotation method optimizes the wind direction information for individual plumes to account for error in meteorological databases. We derive source rates from the time-averaged plumes using integrated mass enhancement (IME) and cross-sectional flux (CSF) methods calibrated with large eddy simulations. We find time-averaged source rates ranging from 2320 to 5850 kg h-1 for the three coal mine vents, with 40-45% precision (1σ), and generally consistent with previous estimates. The IME and CSF methods agree within 15%. Our results demonstrate the potential of space-based monitoring for annual reporting of methane emissions from point sources and suggest that future satellite instruments with similar pixel resolution but better precision should be able to constrain a wide range of point sources.

Effects of Anthropogenic Chlorine on PM2.5 and Ozone Air Quality in China.

China has large anthropogenic chlorine emissions from agricultural fires, residential biofuel, waste incineration, coal combustion, and industrial processes. Here we quantify the effects of chlorine on fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and ozone air quality across China by using the GEOS-Chem chemical transport model with comprehensive anthropogenic emissions and detailed representation of gas-phase and heterogeneous chlorine chemistry. Comparison of the model to observed ClNO2, HCl, and particulate Cl- concentrations shows that reactive chlorine in China is mainly anthropogenic, unlike in other continental regions where it is mostly of marine origin. The model is successful in reproducing observed concentrations and their distributions, lending confidence in the anthropogenic chlorine emission estimates and the resulting chemistry. We find that anthropogenic chlorine emissions increase total inorganic PM2.5 by as much as 3.2 µg m-3 on an annual mean basis through the formation of ammonium chloride, partly compensated by a decrease of nitrate because ClNO2 formation competes with N2O5 hydrolysis. Annual mean MDA8 surface ozone increases by up to 1.9 ppb, mainly from ClNO2 chemistry, while reactivities of volatile organic compounds increase (by up to 48% for ethane). We find that a sufficient representation of chlorine chemistry in air quality models can be obtained from consideration of HCl/Cl- thermodynamics and ClNO2 chemistry, because other more complicated aspects of chlorine chemistry have a relatively minor effect.

Modeling the OH-Initiated Oxidation of Mercury in the Global Atmosphere without Violating Physical Laws.

In 2005, Calvert and Lindberg (Calvert, J. G.; Lindberg, S. E. Atmos. Environ. 2005, 39, 3355-3367) wrote that the use of laboratory-derived rate constants for OH + Hg(0) "...to determine the extent of Hg removal by OH in the troposphere will greatly overestimate the importance of Hg removal by this reaction." The HOHg• intermediate formed from OH + Hg will mostly fall apart in the atmosphere before it can react. By contrast, in laboratory experiments, Calvert and Lindberg expected HOHg• to react with radicals (whose concentrations are much higher than in the atmosphere). Yet, almost all models of oxidation of Hg(0) ignore the argument of Calvert and Lindberg. We present a way for modelers to include the OH + Hg reaction while accounting quantitatively for the dissociation of HOHg•. We use high levels of quantum chemistry to establish the HO-Hg bond energy as 11.0 kcal/mol and calculate the equilibrium constant for OH + Hg = HOHg•. Using the measured rate constant for the association of OH with Hg, we determine the rate constant for HOHg• dissociation. Theory is also used to demonstrate that HOHg• forms stable compounds, HOHgY, with atmospheric radicals (Y = NO2, HOO•, CH3OO•, and BrO). We then present rate constants for use in modeling OH-initiated oxidation of Hg(0). We use this mechanism to model the global oxidation of Hg(0) in the period 2013-2015 using the GEOS-Chem 3D model of atmospheric chemistry. Because of the rapid dissociation of HOHg•, OH accounts for <1% of the global oxidation of Hg(0) to Hg(II), while Br atoms account for 97%.

Ambiguity in the causes for decadal trends in atmospheric methane and hydroxyl.

Methane is the second strongest anthropogenic greenhouse gas and its atmospheric burden has more than doubled since 1850. Methane concentrations stabilized in the early 2000s and began increasing again in 2007. Neither the stabilization nor the recent growth are well understood, as evidenced by multiple competing hypotheses in recent literature. Here we use a multispecies two-box model inversion to jointly constrain 36 y of methane sources and sinks, using ground-based measurements of methane, methyl chloroform, and the C13/C12 ratio in atmospheric methane (δ13CH4) from 1983 through 2015. We find that the problem, as currently formulated, is underdetermined and solutions obtained in previous work are strongly dependent on prior assumptions. Based on our analysis, the mathematically most likely explanation for the renewed growth in atmospheric methane, counterintuitively, involves a 25-Tg/y decrease in methane emissions from 2003 to 2016 that is offset by a 7% decrease in global mean hydroxyl (OH) concentrations, the primary sink for atmospheric methane, over the same period. However, we are still able to fit the observations if we assume that OH concentrations are time invariant (as much of the previous work has assumed) and we then find solutions that are largely consistent with other proposed hypotheses for the renewed growth of atmospheric methane since 2007. We conclude that the current surface observing system does not allow unambiguous attribution of the decadal trends in methane without robust constraints on OH variability, which currently rely purely on methyl chloroform data and its uncertain emissions estimates.

Observed decrease in atmospheric mercury explained by global decline in anthropogenic emissions.

Observations of elemental mercury (Hg(0)) at sites in North America and Europe show large decreases (∼ 1-2% y(-1)) from 1990 to present. Observations in background northern hemisphere air, including Mauna Loa Observatory (Hawaii) and CARIBIC (Civil Aircraft for the Regular Investigation of the atmosphere Based on an Instrument Container) aircraft flights, show weaker decreases (<1% y(-1)). These decreases are inconsistent with current global emission inventories indicating flat or increasing emissions over that period. However, the inventories have three major flaws: (i) they do not account for the decline in atmospheric release of Hg from commercial products; (ii) they are biased in their estimate of artisanal and small-scale gold mining emissions; and (iii) they do not properly account for the change in Hg(0)/Hg(II) speciation of emissions from coal-fired utilities after implementation of emission controls targeted at SO2 and NOx. We construct an improved global emission inventory for the period 1990 to 2010 accounting for the above factors and find a 20% decrease in total Hg emissions and a 30% decrease in anthropogenic Hg(0) emissions, with much larger decreases in North America and Europe offsetting the effect of increasing emissions in Asia. Implementation of our inventory in a global 3D atmospheric Hg simulation [GEOS-Chem (Goddard Earth Observing System-Chemistry)] coupled to land and ocean reservoirs reproduces the observed large-scale trends in atmospheric Hg(0) concentrations and in Hg(II) wet deposition. The large trends observed in North America and Europe reflect the phase-out of Hg from commercial products as well as the cobenefit from SO2 and NOx emission controls on coal-fired utilities.

Burden of Disease from Rising Coal-Fired Power Plant Emissions in Southeast Asia.

Southeast Asia has a very high population density and is on a fast track to economic development, with most of the growth in electricity demand currently projected to be met by coal. From a detailed analysis of coal-fired power plants presently planned or under construction in Southeast Asia, we project in a business-as-usual scenario that emissions from coal in the region will triple to 2.6 Tg a-1 SO2 and 2.6 Tg a-1 NOx by 2030, with the largest increases occurring in Indonesia and Vietnam. Simulations with the GEOS-Chem chemical transport model show large resulting increases in surface air pollution, up to 11 µg m-3 for annual mean fine particulate matter (PM2.5) in northern Vietnam and up to 15 ppb for seasonal maximum 1 h ozone in Indonesia. We estimate 19 880 (11 400-28 400) excess deaths per year from Southeast Asian coal emissions at present, increasing to 69 660 (40 080-126 710) by 2030. 9000 of these excess deaths in 2030 are in China. As Chinese emissions from coal decline in coming decades, transboundary pollution influence from rising coal emissions in Southeast Asia may become an increasing issue.

Total Mercury Released to the Environment by Human Activities.

We estimate that a cumulative total of 1540 (1060-2800) Gg (gigagrams, 109 grams or thousand tonnes) of mercury (Hg) have been released by human activities up to 2010, 73% of which was released after 1850. Of this liberated Hg, 470 Gg were emitted directly into the atmosphere, and 74% of the air emissions were elemental Hg. Cumulatively, about 1070 Gg were released to land and water bodies. Though annual releases of Hg have been relatively stable since 1880 at 8 ± 2 Gg, except for wartime, the distributions of those releases among source types, world regions, and environmental media have changed dramatically. Production of Hg accounts for 27% of cumulative Hg releases to the environment, followed by silver production (24%) and chemicals manufacturing (12%). North America (30%), Europe (27%), and Asia (16%) have experienced the largest releases. Biogeochemical modeling shows a 3.2-fold increase in the atmospheric burden relative to 1850 and a contemporary atmospheric reservoir of 4.57 Gg, both of which agree well with observational constraints. We find that approximately 40% (390 Gg) of the Hg discarded to land and water must be sequestered at contaminated sites to maintain consistency with recent declines in atmospheric Hg concentrations.

Formaldehyde (HCHO) As a Hazardous Air Pollutant: Mapping Surface Air Concentrations from Satellite and Inferring Cancer Risks in the United States.

Formaldehyde (HCHO) is the most important carcinogen in outdoor air among the 187 hazardous air pollutants (HAPs) identified by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), not including ozone and particulate matter. However, surface observations of HCHO are sparse and the EPA monitoring network could be prone to positive interferences. Here we use 2005-2016 summertime HCHO column data from the OMI satellite instrument, validated with high-quality aircraft data and oversampled on a 5 × 5 km2 grid, to map surface air HCHO concentrations across the contiguous U.S. OMI-derived summertime HCHO values are converted to annual averages using the GEOS-Chem chemical transport model. Results are in good agreement with high-quality summertime observations from urban sites (-2% bias, r = 0.95) but a factor of 1.9 lower than annual means from the EPA network. We thus estimate that up to 6600-12 500 people in the U.S. will develop cancer over their lifetimes by exposure to outdoor HCHO. The main HCHO source in the U.S. is atmospheric oxidation of biogenic isoprene, but the corresponding HCHO yield decreases as the concentration of nitrogen oxides (NOx ≡ NO + NO2) decreases. A GEOS-Chem sensitivity simulation indicates that HCHO levels would decrease by 20-30% in the absence of U.S. anthropogenic NOx emissions. Thus, NOx emission controls to improve ozone air quality have a significant cobenefit in reducing HCHO-related cancer risks.