Pliocene decoupling of equatorial Pacific temperature and pH gradients.

Ocean dynamics in the equatorial Pacific drive tropical climate patterns that affect marine and terrestrial ecosystems worldwide. How this region will respond to global warming has profound implications for global climate, economic stability and ecosystem health. As a result, numerous studies have investigated equatorial Pacific dynamics during the Pliocene (5.3-2.6 million years ago) and late Miocene (around 6 million years ago) as an analogue for the future behaviour of the region under global warming1-12. Palaeoceanographic records from this time present an apparent paradox with proxy evidence of a reduced east-west sea surface temperature gradient along the equatorial Pacific1,3,7,8-indicative of reduced wind-driven upwelling-conflicting with evidence of enhanced biological productivity in the east Pacific13-15 that typically results from stronger upwelling. Here we reconcile these observations by providing new evidence for a radically different-from-modern circulation regime in the early Pliocene/late Miocene16 that results in older, more acidic and more nutrient-rich water reaching the equatorial Pacific. These results provide a mechanism for enhanced productivity in the early Pliocene/late Miocene east Pacific even in the presence of weaker wind-driven upwelling. Our findings shed new light on equatorial Pacific dynamics and help to constrain the potential changes they will undergo in the near future, given that the Earth is expected to reach Pliocene-like levels of warming in the next century.

Pertussis surveillance and control: exploring variations and delays in testing, laboratory diagnostics and public health service notifications, the Netherlands, 2010 to 2013.

Pertussis is most severe among unvaccinated infants (< 1 year of age), and still leads to several reported deaths in the Netherlands every year. In order to avoid pertussis-related infant morbidity and mortality, pertussis surveillance data are used to guide pertussis control measures. However, more insight into the accuracy of pertussis surveillance and control, and into the range of healthcare and public health-related factors that impede this are needed. We analysed a unique combination of data sources from one Dutch region of 1.1 million residents, including data from laboratory databases and local public health notifications between 2010 and 2013. This large study (n = 12,090 pertussis tests) reveals possible misdiagnoses, substantial under-notification (18%, 412/2,301 laboratory positive episodes) and a delay between patient symptoms and notification to the local public health services (median 34 days, interquartile range (IQR): 27-54). It is likely that the misdiagnoses, under-notification and overall delay in surveillance data are not unique to this area of the Netherlands, and are generalisable to other countries in Europe. In addition to preventive measures such as maternal immunisation, based on current findings, we further recommend greater adherence to testing guidelines, standardisation of test interpretation guidelines, use of automatic notification systems and earlier preventive measures.

Intermediate water circulation drives distribution of Pliocene Oxygen Minimum Zones.

Oxygen minimum zones (OMZs) play a critical role in global biogeochemical cycling and act as barriers to dispersal for marine organisms. OMZs are currently expanding and intensifying with climate change, however past distributions of OMZs are relatively unknown. Here we present evidence for widespread pelagic OMZs during the Pliocene (5.3-2.6 Ma), the most recent epoch with atmospheric CO2 analogous to modern (~400-450 ppm). The global distribution of OMZ-affiliated planktic foraminifer, Globorotaloides hexagonus, and Earth System and Species Distribution Models show that the Indian Ocean, Eastern Equatorial Pacific, eastern South Pacific, and eastern North Atlantic all supported OMZs in the Pliocene, as today. By contrast, low-oxygen waters were reduced in the North Pacific and expanded in the North Atlantic in the Pliocene. This spatially explicit perspective reveals that a warmer world can support both regionally expanded and contracted OMZs, with intermediate water circulation as a key driver.