Machine learning model demonstrates stunting at birth and systemic inflammatory biomarkers as predictors of subsequent infant growth - a four-year prospective study.

BACKGROUND: Stunting affects up to one-third of the children in low-to-middle income countries (LMICs) and has been correlated with decline in cognitive capacity and vaccine immunogenicity. Early identification of infants at risk is critical for early intervention and prevention of morbidity. The aim of this study was to investigate patterns of growth in infants up through 48 months of age to assess whether the growth of infants with stunting eventually improved as well as the potential predictors of growth. METHODS: Height-for-age z-scores (HAZ) of children from Matiari (rural site, Pakistan) at birth, 18 months, and 48 months were obtained. Results of serum-based biomarkers collected at 6 and 9 months were recorded. A descriptive analysis of the population was followed by assessment of growth predictors via traditional machine learning random forest models. RESULTS: Of the 107 children who were followed up till 48 months of age, 51% were stunted (HAZ < - 2) at birth which increased to 54% by 48 months of age. Stunting status for the majority of children at 48 months was found to be the same as at 18 months. Most children with large gains started off stunted or severely stunted, while all of those with notably large losses were not stunted at birth. Random forest models identified HAZ at birth as the most important feature in predicting HAZ at 18 months. Of the biomarkers, AGP (Alpha- 1-acid Glycoprotein), CRP (C-Reactive Protein), and IL1 (interleukin-1) were identified as strong subsequent growth predictors across both the classification and regressor models. CONCLUSION: We demonstrated that children most children with stunting at birth remained stunted at 48 months of age. Value was added for predicting growth outcomes with the use of traditional machine learning random forest models. HAZ at birth was found to be a strong predictor of subsequent growth in infants up through 48 months of age. Biomarkers of systemic inflammation, AGP, CRP, IL1, were also strong predictors of growth outcomes. These findings provide support for continued focus on interventions prenatally, at birth, and early infancy in children at risk for stunting who live in resource-constrained regions of the world.

Standard RUTF vs. locally-made RUSF for acutely malnourished children: A quasi-experimental comparison of the impact on growth and compliance in a rural community of Pakistan.

BACKGROUND: The reduction in severe and moderate acute malnutrition (SAM and MAM) rates in Pakistan has been sub-optimal compared to other low-and middle-income countries (LMICs). Specially-formulated products have been designed globally to manage SAM and MAM, such as ready-to-use therapeutic food (RUTF) and ready-to-use supplementary food (RUSF), with variable efficacies. RUTF is primarily produced and patented in industrialized countries, raising supply challenges in resource-constrained regions with a high burden of acute malnutrition. RUSF minimizes costs by using locally-available ingredients while providing similar nutritional value. In this study, we compared the efficacy, side effects, and compliance of two months of supplementation with either RUTF or RUSF. METHODS: Children aged nine months in the rural district of Matiari, Pakistan, with a weight-for-height z-score (WHZ) <-2 received either RUTF (500 kcal sachet) for two months in 2015 or RUSF (520 kcal sachet) for two months in 2018. RESULTS: The RUSF group had a higher height gain and mid-upper arm circumferences (MUAC) score. Higher compliance was noted with lower side effects in the RUSF group. A higher compliance rate did correlate with the growth parameters in respective groups. CONCLUSION: Our study found that both RUTF and RUSF partially improve the anthropometric status of acutely malnourished children, with neither being superior to the other.

Impact of diarrhoea and acute respiratory infection on environmental enteric dysfunction and growth of malnourished children in Pakistan: a longitudinal cohort study.

Background: Diarrhoea and acute respiratory infections (ARI) are assumed to be major drivers of growth and likely contribute to environmental enteric dysfunction (EED), which is a precursor to childhood malnutrition. In the present study, we checked the correlation between diarrhoeal/ARI burden and EED using a novel duodenal histological index. Methods: Between November 2017 and July 2019, a total of 365 infants with weight-for-height Z scores (WHZ score) of <-2 were enrolled, and 51 infants with WHZ scores of >0 and height-for-age Z scores (HAZ scores) of >-1 were selected as age-matched healthy controls. Morbidity was assessed weekly and categorised as the total number of days with diarrhoea and acute respiratory infection (ARI) from enrolment until two years of age and was further divided into four quartiles in ascending order. Findings: The HAZ declined until two years of age regardless of morbidity burden, and WHZ and weight-for-age Z scores (WAZ scores) were at their lowest at six months. Sixty-three subjects who had a WHZ score <-2 and failed to respond to nutritional and educational interventions were further selected at 15 months to investigate their EED histological scores with endoscopy further. EED histological scores of the subjects were higher with increasing diarrhoeal frequency yet remained statistically insignificant (p = 0.810). Interpretation: There was not a clear correlation between diarrhoea and ARI frequency with growth faltering, however, children with the highest frequency of diarrhoea had the highest EED histological scores and growth faltering. Funding: Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation and The National Institutes of Health.

Barriers and facilitators to exclusive breastfeeding in rural Pakistan: a qualitative exploratory study.

BACKGROUND: Exclusive breastfeeding (EBF) of children until six months of age is considered one of the most critical interventions in tackling childhood undernutrition. EBF rates are suboptimal in Pakistan, particularly in rural areas where child undernutrition is most prevalent. This study aimed to explore barriers to EBF in a rural context of Pakistan. METHODS: The study was conducted in the rural district Matiari of Sindh, Pakistan, during Jan-March 2020. We used a qualitative exploratory study design and conducted 36 focus group discussions (FGDs). Participants were purposively selected mothers who had not practiced EBF during their previous childbirth, their spouses and mothers-in-law, and lady health workers (LHWs) serving in the study catchment. FGDs were audio-recorded, transcribed, and translated into English from the local language and analysed using thematic content analysis. RESULTS: Barriers to EBF included low awareness and cultural practices of prelacteal feeds, insufficient breast milk production, undernutrition of mothers, mothers' occupation as fieldworkers, less birth spacing, low awareness about the correct technique of breastfeeding, maternal and child ailments, abnormal breasts, and influence of in-laws to start top-up feeds. Several facilitators were identified: family support, appropriate maternal diet, maternal awareness, and support in the neighborhood. CONCLUSION: Barriers to EBF are multifaceted in rural areas, and interventions aiming to improve adherence to EBFshould be multipronged. Awareness-raising alone might not be sufficient, and other interventions should be designed to address the barriers of maternal malnutrition, insufficient milk production, and socio-cultural practices. In addition, safe alternatives to breast milk may be necessary if breastfeeding is truly not feasible. Lack of breast milk substitutes is particularly challenging for poor rural women who cannot afford infant formula milk.