From COVID-19 to future electrification: Assessing traffic impacts on air quality by a machine-learning model.

The large fluctuations in traffic during the COVID-19 pandemic provide an unparalleled opportunity to assess vehicle emission control efficacy. Here we develop a random-forest regression model, based on the large volume of real-time observational data during COVID-19, to predict surface-level NO2, O3, and fine particle concentration in the Los Angeles megacity. Our model exhibits high fidelity in reproducing pollutant concentrations in the Los Angeles Basin and identifies major factors controlling each species. During the strictest lockdown period, traffic reduction led to decreases in NO2 and particulate matter with aerodynamic diameters <2.5 µm by -30.1% and -17.5%, respectively, but a 5.7% increase in O3 Heavy-duty truck emissions contribute primarily to these variations. Future traffic-emission controls are estimated to impose similar effects as observed during the COVID-19 lockdown, but with smaller magnitude. Vehicular electrification will achieve further alleviation of NO2 levels.

Type-Dependent Responses of Ice Cloud Properties to Aerosols From Satellite Retrievals.

Aerosol-cloud interactions represent one of the largest uncertainties in external forcings on our climate system. Compared with liquid clouds, the observational evidence for the aerosol impact on ice clouds is much more limited and shows conflicting results, partly because the distinct features of different ice cloud and aerosol types were seldom considered. Using 9-year satellite retrievals, we find that, for convection-generated (anvil) ice clouds, cloud optical thickness, cloud thickness, and cloud fraction increase with small-to-moderate aerosol loadings (<0.3 aerosol optical depth) and decrease with further aerosol increase. For in situ formed ice clouds, however, these cloud properties increase monotonically and more sharply with aerosol loadings. An increase in loading of smoke aerosols generally reduces cloud optical thickness of convection-generated ice clouds, while the reverse is true for dust and anthropogenic pollution aerosols. These relationships between different cloud/aerosol types provide valuable constraints on the modeling assessment of aerosol-ice cloud radiative forcing.

Assessing the effects of anthropogenic aerosols on Pacific storm track using a multiscale global climate model.

Atmospheric aerosols affect weather and global general circulation by modifying cloud and precipitation processes, but the magnitude of cloud adjustment by aerosols remains poorly quantified and represents the largest uncertainty in estimated forcing of climate change. Here we assess the effects of anthropogenic aerosols on the Pacific storm track, using a multiscale global aerosol-climate model (GCM). Simulations of two aerosol scenarios corresponding to the present day and preindustrial conditions reveal long-range transport of anthropogenic aerosols across the north Pacific and large resulting changes in the aerosol optical depth, cloud droplet number concentration, and cloud and ice water paths. Shortwave and longwave cloud radiative forcing at the top of atmosphere are changed by -2.5 and +1.3 W m(-2), respectively, by emission changes from preindustrial to present day, and an increased cloud top height indicates invigorated midlatitude cyclones. The overall increased precipitation and poleward heat transport reflect intensification of the Pacific storm track by anthropogenic aerosols. Hence, this work provides, for the first time to the authors' knowledge, a global perspective of the effects of Asian pollution outflows from GCMs. Furthermore, our results suggest that the multiscale modeling framework is essential in producing the aerosol invigoration effect of deep convective clouds on a global scale.

Spread in the magnitude of climate model interdecadal global temperature variability traced to disagreements over high-latitude oceans.

Unforced variability in global mean surface air temperature can obscure or exaggerate global warming on interdecadal timescales, thus understanding both the magnitude and generating mechanisms of such variability is of critical importance for both attribution studies as well as decadal climate prediction. Coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (climate models) simulate a wide range of magnitudes of unforced interdecadal variability in global mean surface air temperature (UITglobal), hampering efforts to quantify the influence of UITglobal on contemporary global temperature trends. Recently, a preliminary consensus has emerged that unforced interdecadal variability in local surface temperatures (UITlocal) over the tropical Pacific Ocean are particularly influential on UITglobal. Therefore, a reasonable hypothesis might be that the large spread in the magnitude of UITglobal across climate models can be explained by the spread in the magnitude of simulated tropical Pacific UITlocal. Here we show that this hypothesis is mostly false. Instead, the spread in the magnitude of UITglobal is linked much more strongly to the spread in the magnitude of UITlocal over high-latitude regions characterized by significant variability in oceanic convection, sea ice concentration, and energy flux at both the surface and the top of the atmosphere (TOA). Thus, efforts to constrain the climate model produced range of UITglobal magnitude would be best served by focusing on the simulation of air-sea interaction at high latitudes.

Factors determining tropical upper-level cloud radiative effect in the radiative-convective equilibrium framework.

Investigation of the major factors determining tropical upper-level cloud radiative effect (TUCRE) is crucial for understanding cloud feedback mechanisms. We examined the TUCRE inferred from the outputs of historical runs and AMIP runs from CMIP6 models employing a radiative-convective equilibrium (RCE). In this study, we incorporated the RCE model configurations of atmospheric dynamics and thermodynamics from the climate models, while simplifying the intricate systems. Using the RCE model, we adjusted the global mean surface temperature to achieve energy balance, considering variations in tropical cloud fraction, regional reflectivity, and emission temperature corresponding to each climate model. Subsequently, TUCRE was calculated as a unit of K/%, representing the change in global mean surface temperature (K) in response to an increment in the tropical upper-level clouds (%). Our RCE model simulation indicates that the major factors determining the TUCRE are the emission temperatures of tropical moist-cloudy and moist-clear regions, as well as the fraction of tropical upper-level clouds. The higher determination coefficients between TUCRE and both the emission temperature of tropical moist regions and the upper-level cloud fraction are attributable to their contribution to the trapping effect on the outgoing longwave radiations, which predominantly determines TUCRE. Consequently, the results of this study underscore the importance of accurately representing the upper-level cloud fraction and emission temperature in tropical moist regions to enhance the representation of TUCRE in climate models.

Muted extratropical low cloud seasonal cycle is closely linked to underestimated climate sensitivity in models.

A large spread in model estimates of the equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS), defined as the global mean near-surface air-temperature increase following a doubling of atmospheric CO2 concentration, leaves us greatly disadvantaged in guiding policy-making for climate change adaptation and mitigation. In this study, we show that the projected ECS in the latest generation of climate models is highly related to seasonal variations of extratropical low-cloud fraction (LCF) in historical simulations. Marked reduction of extratropical LCF from winter to summer is found in models with ECS > 4.75 K, in accordance with the significant reduction of extratropical LCF under a warming climate in these models. In contrast, a pronounced seasonal cycle of extratropical LCF, as supported by satellite observations, is largely absent in models with ECS < 3.3 K. The distinct seasonality in extratropical LCF in climate models is ascribed to their different prevailing cloud regimes governing the extratropical LCF variability.

Extended seasonal prediction of spring precipitation over the Upper Colorado River Basin.

This study provides extended seasonal predictions for the Upper Colorado River Basin (UCRB) precipitation in boreal spring using an artificial neural network (ANN) model and a stepwise linear regression model, respectively. Sea surface temperature (SST) predictors are developed taking advantage of the correlation between the precipitation and SST over three ocean basins. The extratropical North Pacific has a higher correlation with the UCRB spring precipitation than the tropical Pacific and North Atlantic. For the ANN model, the Pearson correlation coefficient between the observed and predicted precipitation exceeds 0.45 (p-value < 0.01) for a lead time of 12 months. The mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) is below 20% and the Heidke skill score (HSS) is above 50%. Such long-lead prediction skill is probably due to the UCRB soil moisture bridging the SST and precipitation. The stepwise linear regression model shows similar prediction skills to those of ANN. Both models show prediction skills superior to those of an autoregression model (correlation < 0.10) that represents the baseline prediction skill and those of three of the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) forecast models. The three NMME models exhibit different skills in predicting the precipitation, with the best skills of the correlation ~ 0.40, MAPE < 25%, and HSS > 40% for lead times less than 8 months. This study highlights the advantage of oceanic climate signals in extended seasonal predictions for the UCRB spring precipitation and supports the improvement of the UCRB streamflow prediction and related water resource decisions. Supplementary Information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s00382-022-06422-x.

Model spread in tropical low cloud feedback tied to overturning circulation response to warming.

Among models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6), here we show that the magnitude of the tropical low cloud feedback, which contributes considerably to uncertainty in estimates of climate sensitivity, is intimately linked to tropical deep convection and its effects on the tropical atmospheric overturning circulation. First, a reduction in tropical ascent area and an increased frequency of heavy precipitation result in high cloud reduction and upper-tropospheric drying, which increases longwave cooling and reduces subsidence weakening, favoring low cloud reduction (Radiation-Subsidence Pathway). Second, increased longwave cooling decreases tropospheric stability, which also reduces subsidence weakening and low cloudiness (Stability-Subsidence Pathway). In summary, greater high cloud reduction and upper-tropospheric drying (negative longwave feedback) lead to a more positive cloud feedback among CMIP6 models by contributing to a greater reduction in low cloudiness (positive shortwave feedback). Varying strengths of the two pathways contribute considerably to the intermodel spread in climate sensitivity.

Combining In Situ and Satellite Observations to Understand the Vertical Structure of Tropical Anvil Cloud Microphysical Properties During the TC4 Experiment.

Tropical anvil clouds have a profound impact on Earth's weather and climate. Their role in Earth's energy balance and hydrologic cycle is heavily modulated by the vertical structure of the microphysical properties for various hydrometeors in these clouds and their dependence on the ambient environmental conditions. Accurate representations of the variability and covariability of such vertical structures are key to both the satellite remote sensing of cloud and precipitation and numerical modeling of weather and climate, which remain a challenge. This study presents a new method to combine vertically resolved observations from CloudSat radar reflectivity and Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observation cloud masks with probability distributions of cloud microphysical properties and the ambient atmospheric conditions from detailed in situ measurements on tropical anvils sampled during the National Aeronautics and Space Administration TC4 (Tropical Composition, Cloud and Climate Coupling) mission. We focus on the microphysical properties of the vertical distribution of ice water content, particle size distributions, and effective sizes for different hydrometeors, including ice particles and supercooled liquid droplets. Results from this method are compared with those from in situ data alone and various CloudSat/Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observation cloud retrievals. The sampling limitation of the field experiment and algorithm limitations in the current retrievals is highlighted, especially for the liquid cloud particles, while a generally good agreement with ice cloud microphysical properties is seen from different methods. While the method presented in this study is applied to tropical anvil clouds observed during TC4, it can be readily employed to study a broad range of ice clouds sampled by various field campaigns.

Interpretation of the Top-of-Atmosphere Energy Flux for Future Arctic Warming.

With the trend of amplified warming in the Arctic, we examine the observed and modeled top-of-atmosphere (TOA) radiative responses to surface air-temperature changes over the Arctic by using TOA energy fluxes from NASA's CERES observations and those from twelve climate models in CMIP5. Considerable inter-model spreads in the radiative responses suggest that future Arctic warming may be determined by the compensation between the radiative imbalance and poleward energy transport (mainly via transient eddy activities). The poleward energy transport tends to prevent excessive Arctic warming: the transient eddy activities are weakened because of the reduced meridional temperature gradient under polar amplification. However, the models that predict rapid Arctic warming do not realistically simulate the compensation effect. This role of energy compensation in future Arctic warming is found only when the inter-model differences in cloud radiative effects are considered. Thus, the dynamical response can act as a buffer to prevent excessive Arctic warming against the radiative response of 0.11 W m-2 K-1 as measured from satellites, which helps the Arctic climate system retain an Arctic climate sensitivity of 4.61 K. Therefore, if quantitative analyses of the observations identify contribution of atmospheric dynamics and cloud effects to radiative imbalance, the satellite-measured radiative response will be a crucial indicator of future Arctic warming.

Non-Monotonic Aerosol Effect on Precipitation in Convective Clouds over Tropical Oceans.

Aerosol effects on convective clouds and associated precipitation constitute an important open-ended question in climate research. Previous studies have linked an increase in aerosol concentration to a delay in the onset of rain, invigorated clouds and stronger rain rates. Here, using observational data, we show that the aerosol effect on convective clouds shifts from invigoration to suppression with increasing aerosol optical depth. We explain this shift in trend (using a cloud model) as the result of a competition between two types of microphysical processes: cloud-core-based invigorating processes vs. peripheral suppressive processes. We show that the aerosol optical depth value that marks the shift between invigoration and suppression depends on the environmental thermodynamic conditions. These findings can aid in better parameterizing aerosol effects in climate models for the prediction of climate trends.

Ice nucleation by aerosols from anthropogenic pollution.

The formation of ice particles in the atmosphere strongly affects cloud properties and the climate. While mineral dust is known to be an effective ice nucleating particle, the role of aerosols from anthropogenic pollution in ice nucleation is still under debate. Here we probe the ice nucleation ability of different aerosol types by combining 11-year observations from multiple satellites and cloud-resolving model simulations. We find that, for strong convective systems, ice particle effective radius near cloud top decreases with increasing loading of polluted continental aerosols, because the ice formation is dominated by homogeneous freezing of cloud droplets that are smaller under more polluted conditions. In contrast, an increase in ice particle effective radius with polluted continental aerosols is found for moderate convection. Our model simulations suggest that this positive correlation is explained by enhanced heterogeneous ice nucleation and prolonged ice particle growth at larger aerosol loading, indicating that polluted continental aerosols contain a significant fraction of ice nucleating particles. Similar aerosol-ice relationships are observed for dust aerosols, further corroborating the ice nucleation ability of polluted continental aerosols. By catalyzing ice formation, aerosols from anthropogenic pollution could have profound impacts on cloud lifetime and radiative effect as well as precipitation efficiency.

Modeling Study of the Air Quality Impact of Record-Breaking Southern California Wildfires in December 2017.

We investigate the air quality impact of record-breaking wildfires in Southern California during 5-18 December 2017 using the Weather Research and Forecasting model with Chemistry in combination with satellite and surface observations. This wildfire event was driven by dry and strong offshore Santa Ana winds, which played a critical role in fire formation and air pollutant transport. By utilizing fire emissions derived from the high-resolution (375 × 375 m2) Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite active fire detections, the simulated magnitude and temporal evolution of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) concentrations agree reasonably well with surface observations (normalized mean bias = 4.0%). Meanwhile, the model could generally capture the spatial pattern of aerosol optical depth from satellite observations. Sensitivity tests reveal that using a high spatial resolution for fire emissions and a reasonable treatment of plume rise (a fair split between emissions injected at surface and those lifted to upper levels) is important for achieving decent PM2.5 simulation results. Biases in PM2.5 simulation are relatively large (about 50%) during the period with the strongest Santa Ana wind, due to a possible underestimation of burning area and uncertainty in wind field variation. The 2017 December fire event increases the 14-day averaged PM2.5 concentrations by up to 231.2 µg/m3 over the downwind regions, which substantially exceeds the U.S. air quality standards, potentially leading to adverse health impacts. The human exposure to fire-induced PM2.5 accounts for 14-42% of the annual total PM2.5 exposure in areas impacted by the fire plumes.

Contrasting effects on deep convective clouds by different types of aerosols.

Convective clouds produce a significant proportion of the global precipitation and play an important role in the energy and water cycles. We quantify changes of the convective cloud ice mass-weighted altitude centroid (ZIWC) as a function of aerosol optical thickness (AOT). Analyses are conducted in smoke, dust and polluted continental aerosol environments over South America, Central Africa and Southeast Asia, using the latest measurements from the CloudSat and CALIPSO satellites. We find aerosols can inhibit or invigorate convection, depending on aerosol type and concentration. On average, smoke tends to suppress convection and results in lower ZIWC than clean clouds. Polluted continental aerosol tends to invigorate convection and promote higher ZIWC. The dust aerosol effects are regionally dependent and their signs differ from place to place. Moreover, we find that the aerosol inhibition or invigoration effects do not vary monotonically with AOT and the variations depend strongly on aerosol type. Our observational findings indicate that aerosol type is one of the key factors in determining the aerosol effects on convective clouds.

Impact of aerosols on reservoir inflow: A case study for Big Creek Hydroelectric System in California.

Accurate and reliable reservoir inflow forecast is instrumental to the efficient operation of the hydroelectric power systems. It has been discovered that natural and anthropogenic aerosols have a great influence on meteorological variables such as temperature, snow water equivalent, and precipitation, which in turn impact the reservoir inflow. Therefore, it is imperative for us to quantify the impact of aerosols on reservoir inflow and to incorporate the aerosol models into future reservoir inflow forecasting models. In this paper, a comprehensive framework was developed to quantify the impact of aerosols on reservoir inflow by integrating the Weather Research and Forecasting model with Chemistry (WRF-Chem) and a dynamic regression model. The statistical dynamic regression model produces forecasts for reservoir inflow based on the meteorological output variables from the WRF-Chem model. The case study was performed on the Florence Lake and Lake Thomas Alva Edison of the Big Creek Hydroelectric Project in the San Joaquin Region. The simulation results show that the presence of aerosols results in a significant reduction of annual reservoir inflow by 4-14%. In the summer, aerosols reduce precipitation, snow water equivalent, and snowmelt that leads to a reduction in inflow by 11-26%. In the spring, aerosols increase temperature and snowmelt which leads to an increase in inflow by 0.6-2%. Aerosols significantly reduce the amount of inflow in the summer when the marginal value of water is extremely high and slightly increase the inflow in the spring when the run-off risk is high. In summary, the presence of aerosols is detrimental to the optimal utilization of hydroelectric power systems.

Constraining Aging Processes of Black Carbon in the Community Atmosphere Model Using Environmental Chamber Measurements.

The direct radiative forcing of black carbon aerosol (BC) on the Earth system remains unsettled, largely due to the uncertainty with physical properties of BC throughout their lifecycle. Here we show that ambient chamber measurements of BC properties provide a novel constraint on the crude BC aging representation in climate models. Observational evidence for significant absorption enhancement of BC can be reproduced when the aging processes in the four-mode version of the Modal Aerosol Module (MAM4) aerosol scheme in the Community Atmosphere Model version 5 are calibrated by the recent in situ chamber measurements. An observation-based scaling method is developed in the aging timescale calculation to alleviate the influence of biases in the simulated model chemical composition. Model sensitivity simulations suggest that the different monolayer settings in the BC aging parameterization of MAM4 can cause as large as 26% and 24% differences in BC burden and radiative forcing, respectively. We also find that an increase in coating materials (e.g., sulfate and secondary organic aerosols) reduces BC lifetime by increasing the hygroscopicity of the mixture but enhances its absorption, resulting in a net increase in BC direct radiative forcing. Our results suggest that accurate simulations of BC aging processes as well as other aerosol species are equally important in reducing the uncertainty of BC forcing estimation.

Intra-annual variations of regional aerosol optical depth, vertical distribution, and particle types from multiple satellite and ground-based observational datasets.

The climatic and health effects of aerosols are strongly dependent on the intra-annual variations in their loading and properties. While the seasonal variations of regional aerosol optical depth (AOD) have been extensively studied, understanding the temporal variations in aerosol vertical distribution and particle types is also important for an accurate estimate of aerosol climatic effects. In this paper, we combine the observations from four satellite-borne sensors and several ground-based networks to investigate the seasonal variations of aerosol column loading, vertical distribution, and particle types over three populous regions: the Eastern United States (EUS), Western Europe (WEU), and Eastern and Central China (ECC). In all three regions, column AOD, as well as AOD at heights above 800 m, peaks in summer/spring, probably due to accelerated formation of secondary aerosols and hygroscopic growth. In contrast, AOD below 800m peaks in winter over WEU and ECC regions because more aerosols are confined to lower heights due to the weaker vertical mixing. In the EUS region, AOD below 800m shows two maximums, one in summer and the other in winter. The temporal trends in low-level AOD are consistent with those in surface fine particle (PM2.5) concentrations. AOD due to fine particles (< 0.7 µm diameter) is much larger in spring/summer than in winter over all three regions. However, the coarse mode AOD (> 1.4 µm diameter), generally shows small variability, except that a peak occurs in spring in the ECC region due to the prevalence of airborne dust during this season. When aerosols are classified according to sources, the dominant type is associated with anthropogenic air pollution, which has a similar seasonal pattern as total AOD. Dust and sea-spray aerosols in the WEU region peak in summer and winter, respectively, but do not show an obvious seasonal pattern in the EUS region. Smoke aerosols, as well as absorbing aerosols, present an obvious unimodal distribution with a maximum occurring in summer over the EUS and WEU regions, whereas they follow a bimodal distribution with peaks in August and March (due to crop residue burning) over the ECC region.

Impact of aerosols on ice crystal size.

The interactions between aerosols and ice clouds represent one of the largest uncertainties in global radiative forcing from pre-industrial time to the present. In particular, the impact of aerosols on ice crystal effective radius (R ei), which is a key parameter determining ice clouds' net radiative effect, is highly uncertain due to limited and conflicting observational evidence. Here we investigate the effects of aerosols on R ei under different meteorological conditions using 9-year satellite observations. We find that the responses of R ei to aerosol loadings are modulated by water vapor amount in conjunction with several other meteorological parameters. While there is a significant negative correlation between R ei and aerosol loading in moist conditions, consistent with the "Twomey effect" for liquid clouds, a strong positive correlation between the two occurs in dry conditions. Simulations based on a cloud parcel model suggest that water vapor modulates the relative importance of different ice nucleation modes, leading to the opposite aerosol impacts between moist and dry conditions. When ice clouds are decomposed into those generated from deep convection and formed in situ, the water vapor modulation remains in effect for both ice cloud types, although the sensitivities of R ei to aerosols differ noticeably between them due to distinct formation mechanisms. The water vapor modulation can largely explain the difference in the responses of R ei to aerosol loadings in various seasons. A proper representation of the water vapor modulation is essential for an accurate estimate of aerosol-cloud radiative forcing produced by ice clouds.

An Improved Convective Ice Parameterization for the NASA GISS Global Climate Model and Impacts on Cloud Ice Simulation.

Partitioning of convective ice into precipitating and detrained condensate presents a challenge for GCMs since partitioning depends on the strength and microphysics of the convective updraft. It is an important issue because detrainment of ice from updrafts influences the development of stratiform anvils, impacts radiation, and can affect GCM climate sensitivity. Recent studies have shown that the CMIP5 configurations of the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) GCM simulated upper-tropospheric ice water content (IWC) that exceeded an estimated upper bound by a factor of 2. Partly in response to this bias, a new GCM parameterization of convective cloud ice has been developed that incorporates new ice particle fall speeds and convective outflow particle size distributions (PSDs) from the NASA African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analyses (NAMMA), NASA Tropical Composition, Cloud and Climate Coupling (TC4), DOE ARM-NASA Midlatitude Continental Convective Clouds Experiment (MC3E), and DOE ARM Small Particles in Cirrus (SPARTICUS) field campaigns. The new parameterization assumes a normalized gamma PSD with two novel developments: no explicit assumption for particle habit in the calculation of mass distributions, and a formulation for translating ice particle fall speeds as a function of maximum diameter into fall speeds as a function of melted-equivalent diameter. Two parameters (particle volume- and projected area-weighted equivalent diameter) are diagnosed as a function of temperature and IWC in the convective plume, and these parameters constrain the shape and scale of the normalized gamma PSD. The diagnosed fall speeds and PSDs are combined with the GCM's parameterized convective updraft vertical velocity to partition convective updraft condensate into precipitating and detrained components. A 5-yr prescribed sea surface temperature GCM simulation shows a 30%-50% decrease in upper-tropospheric deep convective IWC, bringing the tropical and global mean ice water path into closer agreement with CloudSat best estimates.

A simulation of ice cloud particle size, humidity, and temperature measurements from the TWICE CubeSat.

This paper describes a forward radiative transfer model and retrieval system (FMRS) for the Tropospheric Water and cloud ICE (TWICE) CubeSat instrument. We use the FMRS to simulate radiances for the TWICE's 14 millimeter- and submillimeter-wavelength channels for a tropical atmospheric state produced by a Weather Research and Forecasting model simulation. We also perform simultaneous retrievals of cloud ice particle size, ice water content (IWC), water vapor content (H2O), and temperature from the simulated TWICE radiances using the FMRS. We show that the TWICE instrument is capable of retrieving ice particle size in the range of ~50-1000 µm in mass mean effective diameter with approximately 50% uncertainty. The uncertainties of other retrievals from TWICE are about 1 K for temperature, 50% for IWC, and 20% for H2O.