Integrating mangrove growth and failure in coastal flood protection designs.

Mangrove forests reduce wave attack along tropical and sub-tropical coastlines, decreasing the wave loads acting on coastal protection structures. Mangrove belts seaward of embankments can therefore lower their required height and decrease their slope protection thickness. Wave reduction by mangroves depends on tree frontal surface area and stability against storms, but both aspects are often oversimplified or neglected in coastal protection designs. Here we present a framework to evaluate how mangrove belts influence embankment designs, including mangrove growth over time and failure by overturning and trunk breakage. This methodology is applied to Sonneratia apetala mangroves seaward of embankments in Bangladesh, considering forest widths between 10 and 1000 m (cross-shore). For water depths of 5 m, wave reduction by mangrove forests narrower than 1 km mostly affects the slope protection and the bank erodibility, whereas the required embankment height is less influenced by mangroves. Sonneratia apetala trees experience a relative maximum in wave attenuation capacity at 10 years age, due to their large submerged canopy area. Once trees are more than 20 years old, their canopy is emergent, and most wave attenuation is caused by trunk and roots. Canopy emergence exposes mangroves to wind loads, which are much larger than wave loads, and can cause tree failure during cyclones. These results stress the importance of including tree surface area and stability models when predicting coastal protection by mangroves.

An overview of quantitative risk measures for loss of life and economic damage.

A comprehensive overview of methods to quantify and limit risks arising from different sources is still missing in literature. Therefore, a study of risk literature was carried out by the authors. This article summarises about 25 quantitative risk measures. A risk measure is defined as a mathematical function of the probability of an event and the consequences of that event. The article focuses mainly on risk measures for loss of life (individual and societal risk) and economic risk, concentrating on risk measurement experiences in The Netherlands. Other types of consequences and some international practices are also considered. For every risk measure the most important characteristics are given: the mathematical formulation, the field of application and the standard set in this field. Some of the measures have been used in a case study to calculate the flood risks for an area in The Netherlands.