Subnational Projections of Lymphatic Filariasis Elimination Targets in Ethiopia to Support National Level Policy.

BACKGROUND: Lymphatic filariasis (LF) is a debilitating, poverty-promoting, neglected tropical disease (NTD) targeted for worldwide elimination as a public health problem (EPHP) by 2030. Evaluating progress towards this target for national programmes is challenging, due to differences in disease transmission and interventions at the subnational level. Mathematical models can help address these challenges by capturing spatial heterogeneities and evaluating progress towards LF elimination and how different interventions could be leveraged to achieve elimination by 2030. METHODS: Here we used a novel approach to combine historical geo-spatial disease prevalence maps of LF in Ethiopia with 3 contemporary disease transmission models to project trends in infection under different intervention scenarios at subnational level. RESULTS: Our findings show that local context, particularly the coverage of interventions, is an important determinant for the success of control and elimination programmes. Furthermore, although current strategies seem sufficient to achieve LF elimination by 2030, some areas may benefit from the implementation of alternative strategies, such as using enhanced coverage or increased frequency, to accelerate progress towards the 2030 targets. CONCLUSIONS: The combination of geospatial disease prevalence maps of LF with transmission models and intervention histories enables the projection of trends in infection at the subnational level under different control scenarios in Ethiopia. This approach, which adapts transmission models to local settings, may be useful to inform the design of optimal interventions at the subnational level in other LF endemic regions.

Estimating the Intracluster Correlation Coefficient for the Clinical Sign "Trachomatous Inflammation-Follicular" in Population-Based Trachoma Prevalence Surveys: Results From a Meta-Regression Analysis of 261 Standardized Preintervention Surveys Carried Out in Ethiopia, Mozambique, and Nigeria.

Sample sizes in cluster surveys must be greater than those in surveys using simple random sampling in order to obtain similarly precise prevalence estimates, because results from subjects examined in the same cluster cannot be assumed to be independent. Therefore, a crucial aspect of cluster sampling is estimation of the intracluster correlation coefficient (ρ): the degree of relatedness of outcomes in a given cluster, defined as the proportion of total variance accounted for by between-cluster variation. In infectious disease epidemiology, this coefficient is related to transmission patterns and the natural history of infection; its value also depends on particulars of survey design. Estimation of ρ is often difficult due to the lack of comparable survey data with which to calculate summary estimates. Here we use a parametric bootstrap model to estimate ρ for the ocular clinical sign "trachomatous inflammation-follicular" (TF) among children aged 1-9 years within population-based trachoma prevalence surveys. We present results from a meta-regression analysis of data from 261 such surveys completed using standardized methods in Ethiopia, Mozambique, and Nigeria in 2012-2015. Consistent with the underlying theory, we found that ρ increased with increasing overall TF prevalence and smaller numbers of children examined per cluster. Estimates of ρ for TF were independently higher in Ethiopia than in the other countries.

Understanding the spatial distribution of trichiasis and its association with trachomatous inflammation-follicular.

BACKGROUND: Whilst previous work has identified clustering of the active trachoma sign "trachomatous inflammation-follicular" (TF), there is limited understanding of the spatial structure of trachomatous trichiasis (TT), the rarer, end-stage, blinding form of disease. Here we use community-level TF prevalence, information on access to water and sanitation, and large-scale environmental and socio-economic indicators to model the spatial variation in community-level TT prevalence in Benin, Cote d'Ivoire, DRC, Guinea, Ethiopia, Malawi, Mozambique, Nigeria, Sudan and Uganda. METHODS: We fit binomial mixed models, with community-level random effects, separately for each country. In countries where spatial correlation was detected through a semi-variogram diagnostic check we then fitted a geostatistical model to the TT prevalence data including TF prevalence as an explanatory variable. RESULTS: The estimated regression relationship between community-level TF and TT was significant in eight countries. We estimate that a 10% increase in community-level TF prevalence leads to an increase in the odds for TT ranging from 20 to 86% when accounting for additional covariates. CONCLUSION: We find evidence of an association between TF and TT in some parts of Africa. However, our results also suggest the presence of additional, country-specific, spatial risk factors which modulate the variation in TT risk.

Integrated morbidity management for lymphatic filariasis and podoconiosis, Ethiopia.

PROBLEM: Lymphatic filariasis and podoconiosis are the major causes of tropical lymphoedema in Ethiopia. The diseases require a similar provision of care, but until recently the Ethiopian health system did not integrate the morbidity management. APPROACH: To establish health-care services for integrated lymphoedema morbidity management, the health ministry and partners used existing governmental structures. Integrated disease mapping was done in 659 out of the 817 districts, to identify endemic districts. To inform resource allocation, trained health extension workers carried out integrated disease burden assessments in 56 districts with a high clinical burden. To ensure standard provision of care, the health ministry developed an integrated lymphatic filariasis and podoconiosis morbidity management guideline, containing a treatment algorithm and a defined package of care. Experienced professionals on lymphoedema management trained government-employed health workers on integrated morbidity management. To monitor the integration, an indicator on the number of lymphoedema-treated patients was included in the national health management information system. LOCAL SETTING: In 2014, only 24% (87) of the 363 health facilities surveyed provided lymphatic filariasis services, while 12% (44) provided podoconiosis services. RELEVANT CHANGES: To date, 542 health workers from 53 health centres in 24 districts have been trained on integrated morbidity management. Between July 2013 and June 2016, the national health management information system has recorded 46 487 treated patients from 189 districts. LESSONS LEARNT: In Ethiopia, an integrated approach for lymphatic filariasis and podoconiosis morbidity management was feasible. The processes used could be applicable in other settings where these diseases are co-endemic.

Incidence, prevalence and mortality rates of malaria in Ethiopia from 1990 to 2015: analysis of the global burden of diseases 2015.

BACKGROUND: In Ethiopia there is no complete registration system to measure disease burden and risk factors accurately. In this study, the 2015 global burden of diseases, injuries and risk factors (GBD) data were used to analyse the incidence, prevalence and mortality rates of malaria in Ethiopia over the last 25 years. METHODS: GBD 2015 used verbal autopsy surveys, reports, and published scientific articles to estimate the burden of malaria in Ethiopia. Age and gender-specific causes of death for malaria were estimated using cause of death ensemble modelling. RESULTS: The number of new cases of malaria declined from 2.8 million [95% uncertainty interval (UI) 1.4-4.5 million] in 1990 to 621,345 (95% UI 462,230-797,442) in 2015. Malaria caused an estimated 30,323 deaths (95% UI 11,533.3-61,215.3) in 1990 and 1561 deaths (95% UI 752.8-2660.5) in 2015, a 94.8% reduction over the 25 years. Age-standardized mortality rate of malaria has declined by 96.5% between 1990 and 2015 with an annual rate of change of 13.4%. Age-standardized malaria incidence rate among all ages and gender declined by 88.7% between 1990 and 2015. The number of disability-adjusted life years lost (DALY) due to malaria decreased from 2.2 million (95% UI 0.76-4.7 million) in 1990 to 0.18 million (95% UI 0.12-0.26 million) in 2015, with a total reduction 91.7%. Similarly, age-standardized DALY rate declined by 94.8% during the same period. CONCLUSIONS: Ethiopia has achieved a 50% reduction target of malaria of the millennium development goals. The country should strengthen its malaria control and treatment strategies to achieve the sustainable development goals.

Review of Ethiopian Onchocerciasis Elimination Programme.

Onchocerciasis is a severe parasitic infection which causes disabling skin and subcutaneous tissue changes. The disease is endemic in many African countries including Ethiopia. In 2013, Ethiopia launched Onchocerciasis elimination program with the goal of attaining interruption of onchocerciasis transmission nationwide by 2020. The country has successfully scaled up interventions and achieved 100% geographic coverage in all known endemic districts. The main strategy for interrupting the disease is mass drug administration (MDA) delivered two times per year. The treatment coverage for the last five years has been maintained at more than 80%. Despite many years of ivermectin MDA the transmission of onchocerciasis in many districts remained unabated. To achieve the 2020 goal, sustained high geographic and therapeutic coverage is required which is validated by coverage surveys. The programme should aim to improve the knowledge and attitude of the community towards the programme in order to improve drug compliance. The partnership between the relevant stakeholders should be strengthened to facilitate open discussions regarding the programme implementation and any challenges that may arise in the control and elimination of the disease. It is also important to consider intensified vector control.

Ethiopia Schistosomiasis and Soil-Transmitted Helminthes Control Programme: Progress and Prospects.

Schistosomiasis and soil-transmitted helminthes are among seventeen WHO prioritized neglected tropical diseases that infect humans. These parasitic infections can be treated using single-dose and safe drugs. Ethiopia successfully mapped the distribution of these infections nationwide. According to the mapping there are an estimated 37.3 million people living in schistosomiasis endemic areas, and 79 million in schistosomiasis and soil-transmitted helminthes endemic areas. The Federal Ministry of Health successfully scaled up Schistosomiasis and schistosomiasis and soil-transmitted helminthes intervention in endemic areas and treated over 19 million individuals in 2015. The Ministry of Health has made a huge effort to establish neglected tropical diseases, including schistosomiasis and soil-transmitted helminthes program in the health system which helped to map majority of the woredas and initiate nationwide intervention. The National control programme is designed to achieve elimination for those diseases as a major public health problem by 2020 and aim to attain transmission break by 2025. The programme focuses on reaching those school-aged children who are not attending school, integration between neglected tropical diseases programme, and further collaboration with the WASH actors.

Elimination of Guinea Worm Disease in Ethiopia; Current Status of the Disease's, Eradication Strategies and Challenges to the End Game.

Dracunculiasis, also named Guinea Worm Disease (GWD), is one of the Neglected Tropical Diseases (NTDs) caused by a parasitic nematode known as Dracunculus medinensis and has been known since antiquity as 'fiery serpent' from Israelites. It is transmitted to humans via drinking contaminated water containing infective copepods. Given, its feasibility for eradication, the Guinea Worm Eradication Program (GWEP) was launched in 1980 with the aim of eradicating the disease. Since its inception, GWEP has made an extraordinary progress in interrupting transmission. Globally, the number of reported cases reduced from 3.5 million in 20 countries in 1986 to only 22 cases in 2015 from only four countries namely South Sudan, Mali, Chad and Ethiopia. Since Mali has interrupted transmission of GWD in 2016, currently, the disease remains endemic in only three sub-Saharan African countries namely, South Sudan, Chad and Ethiopia. Each endemic country has its own national Guinea Worm Eradication Program. In Ethiopia, the Ethiopian Dracunculiasis Eradication Program (EDEP) which was established in 1993 has made remarkable move towards interruption of disease transmission and now the endgame is fast approaching. The EDEP with support mainly from The Carter Center, WHO, and UNICEF has reduced GWD by more than 99% from 1994 to 2015. In 2015, only 3 indigenous cases in humans and 14 in animals (13 in dogs and 1 in baboon) were reported. In 2016, 3 human cases, 14 dogs and 2 baboon infections were reported.. Refugee influx from the Republic of South Sudan (RSS), increased animal infections with unknown role in transmission of Dracunculiasis, the presence of hard to reach communities and lack of safe water sources in remote non-village areas remain among important challenges at this final stage of GWD eradication in Ethiopia. This paper reviews progress made towards Guinea Worm Eradication with a focus on the experience of the Ethiopian Dracunculiasis Eradication Program (EDEP), and intervention strategies that need further intensification to realize the endgame. Eradication strategies encompassing community education for behavioral change including raising awareness towards cash reward for reporting Guniea Worm Disease (GWD) and animal infection, case containment, surveillance systems, provision of safe water supply, and ABATE chemical application are discussed. It also summarizes challenges the end game faces and recommendations to strengthen the eradication effort.

The National Programme to Eliminate Lymphatic Filariasis from Ethiopia.

Lymphatic filariasis (LF) is one of the most debilitating and disfiguring diseases common in Ethiopia and is caused by Wuchereria bancrofti. Mapping for LF has shown that 70 woredas (districts) are endemic and 5.9 million people are estimated to be at risk. The national government's LF elimination programme commenced in 2009 in 5 districts integrated with the onchocerciasis programme. The programme developed gradually and has shown significant progress over the past 6 years, reaching 100% geographical coverage for mass drug administration (MDA) by 2016. To comply with the global LF elimination goals an integrated morbidity management and disability prevention (MMDP) guideline and a burden assessment programme has also been developed; MMDP protocols and a hydrocoele surgical handbook produced for country-wide use. In Ethiopia, almost all LF endemic districts are co-endemic with malaria and vector control aspects of the activities are conducted in the context of malaria programme as the vectors for both diseases are mosquitoes. In order to monitor the elimination, 11 sentinel and spot-check sites have been established and baseline information has been collected. Although significant achievements have been achieved in the scale up of the LF elimination programme, there is still a need to strengthen operational research to generate programme-relevant evidence, to increase access to morbidity management services, and to improve monitoring and evaluation of the LF programme. However, the current status of implementation of the LF national programme indicates that Ethiopia is poised to achieve the 2020 goal of elimination of LF. Nevertheless, to achieve this goal, high and sustained treatment coverage and strong monitoring and evaluation of the programme are essential.

Podoconiosis in Ethiopia: From Neglect to Priority Public Health Problem.

Podoconiosis is a geochemical disease occurring in individuals exposed to red clay soil of volcanic origin. This Neglected Tropical Disease (NTD) is highly prevalent in Ethiopia. According to the nationwide mapping in 2013, the disease is endemic in 345 districts, where an estimated 35 million people live. The government of Ethiopia prioritized podoconiosis as one of eight priority NTDs and included it in the national integrated master plan for NTDs. An integrated lymphoedema management guideline has been developed. Service expansion has continued in the last few years and lymphoedema management services have been expanded to over one hundred endemic districts. The last few years have been critical in generating evidence about the distribution, burden and effective interventions for podoconiosis in Ethiopia. Although the extent of the problem within Ethiopia is considerable, the country is well positioned to now scale-up elimination efforts. Given the extraordinary progress of the past ten years and the current commitment of government, private and third sectors, Ethiopia seems to be on course for the elimination of podoconiosis in our lifetime. We need continued strong partner commitment, evidence-building, and scale-up of activities to accomplish this.

Corrigendum to "Safety of integrated mass drug administration of azithromycin, albendazole and ivermectin versus standard treatment regimens: a cluster-randomised trial in Ethiopia".

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1016/j.eclinm.2023.101984.].

Impact of personal protective equipment on the clarity of vision among trachoma survey graders and trichiasis surgeons in the context of COVID-19.

BACKGROUND/AIMS: The COVID-19 pandemic necessitated the use of personal protective equipment for those involved in trachoma survey grading and trichiasis surgery. We sought to determine which configuration of a face shield would be less likely to impact grading accuracy and ability to conduct trichiasis surgery. The research also included assessment of comfort, ease of cleaning and robustness. METHODS: There were three research phases. In phase 1, assessment of four potential face shield configurations was undertaken with principal trachoma graders and trichiasis surgeon trainers to decide which two options should undergo further testing. In phase 2, clarity of vision and comfort (in a classroom environment) of the two configurations were assessed compared with no face shield (control), while grading trachomatous inflammation-follicular (TF). The second phase also included the assessment of impact of the configurations while performing trichiasis surgery using a training model. In phase 3, face shield ease of use was evaluated during routine surgical programmes. RESULTS: In phase 2, 124 trachoma graders and 28 trichiasis surgeons evaluated the 2 face shield configurations selected in phase 1. TF agreement was high (kappa=0.83 and 0.82) for both configurations compared with not wearing a face shield. Comfort was reported as good by 51% and 32% of graders using the two configurations. Trichiasis skill scores were similar for both configurations. CONCLUSION: The face shield configuration that includes a cut-out for mounting the 2.5× magnifying loupes does not appear to impact the ability or comfort of trachoma graders or trichiasis surgeons to carry out their work.

Safety of integrated mass drug administration of azithromycin, albendazole and ivermectin versus standard treatment regimens: a cluster-randomised trial in Ethiopia.

Background: Neglected Tropical Disease (NTD) programs require separate and distinct drug regimens for treatment. This has required countries to undertake multiple independent mass drug administration (MDA) programmes, each targeting one or more diseases. The possibility of safely combining different drug regimens together in one MDA may offer several advantages to national programs. We conducted a study to assess the safety of combining ivermectin, albendazole and azithromycin in one integrated MDA. Methods: We conducted an open-label, non-inferiority cluster-randomised trial comparing the frequency of adverse events in communities receiving co-administered ivermectin, albendazole and azithromycin to that in communities given albendazole and ivermectin MDA followed by azithromycin MDA after a two-week interval. The study took place in 58 gares (small administrative units) across two kebeles (sub-districts) in Kofele woreda (district) in the Oromia region of Ethiopia. We randomly assigned 29 gares to the combined treatment arm and 29 gares to the control arm. The study team revisited all individuals within 48 h and actively collected data on the occurrence of adverse events using a dedicated questionnaire and a pre-specified list of adverse events. The study team followed the same process in the control arm for the azithromycin distribution and again after the ivermectin plus albendazole distribution. Following this initial active surveillance, passive surveillance was undertaken for one week after the first visit. The primary outcome was the frequency of adverse events occurring following MDA. The study team determined that the safety of the combined MDA would be non-inferior to that of separate MDAs if the upper limit of the two-sided CI for the difference in rates was equal to or lower than 5%. The trial was registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT03570814. Findings: The study took place from December 2021 to January 2022. The combined MDA arm consisted of 7292 individuals who were eligible to participate, of whom 7068 received all three medications. The separate MDA arm consisted of 6219 eligible individuals of whom 6211 received ivermectin and albendazole and 4611 received azithromycin two weeks later. Overall, adverse events were reported by 197 (1.2%) of individuals. The most commonly reported adverse events included headache, gastrointestinal disturbance and dizziness. There were no serious adverse events in either arm. The cluster-level mean frequency of reported adverse events varied markedly between clusters, ranging from 0.1 to 10.4%. The cluster-level mean frequency of adverse events was 1.4% in the combined MDA arm and 1.2% following ivermectin and albendazole MDA (absolute difference 0.2%, 95% confidence interval [CI] -0.6% to +1.1%). This met the pre-defined 1.5% non-inferiority margin. For the combined MDA comparison to the stand-alone azithromycin MDA the absolute difference was -0.4% (1.4 versus 1.8%, 95% CI -0.8 to +1.5) which also met the pre-specified non-inferiority margin. Interpretation: This study is the largest of its kind to date and demonstrates that the safety of combined MDA of azithromycin, ivermectin and albendazole is non-inferior to the safety of ivermectin-plus-albendazole MDA then azithromycin MDA conducted separately although we may not have been powered to detect very small differences between arms. Co-administration of these three medicines is safe and feasible in this setting and allows national programs to develop new strategies for integrated MDA programs. Funding: Ivermectin (Mectizan) was donated by the Mectizan Donation Program, albendazole was donated by GlaxoSmithKline, and azithromycin (Zithromax®) was donated by Pfizer via the International Trachoma Initiative (ITI). The trial was funded by ITI using operational research funds from the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation.

Perceptions and acceptability of co-administered albendazole, ivermectin and azithromycin mass drug administration, among the health workforce and recipient communities in Ethiopia.

Several neglected tropical diseases (NTDs) employ mass drug administration (MDA) as part of their control or elimination strategies. This has historically required multiple distinct campaigns, each targeting one or more NTDs, representing a strain on both the recipient communities and the local health workforce implementing the distribution. We explored perceptions and attitudes surrounding combined MDA among these two groups of stakeholders. Our qualitative study was nested within a cluster randomized non-inferiority safety trial of combined ivermectin, albendazole and azithromycin MDA. Using semi-structured question guides, we conducted 16 key informant interviews with selected individuals involved in implementing MDA within the participating district. To better understand the perceptions of recipient communities, we also conducted four focus group discussions with key community groups. Individuals were selected from both the trial arm (integrated MDA) and the control arm (standard MDA) to provide a means of comparison and discussion. All interviews and focus group discussions were led by fluent Afaan oromo speakers. Interviewers transcribed and later translated all discussions into English. The study team synthesized and analyzed the results via a coding framework and software. Most respondents appreciated the time and effort saved via the co-administered MDA strategy but there were some misgivings amongst community beneficiaries surrounding pill burden. Both the implementing health work force members and beneficiaries reported refusals stemming from lack of understanding around the need for the new drug regimen as well as some mistrust of government officials among the youth. The house-to-house distribution method, adopted as a COVID-19 prevention strategy, was by far preferred by all beneficiaries over central-point MDA, and may have led to greater acceptability of co-administration. Our data demonstrate that a co-administration strategy for NTDs is acceptable to both communities and health staff.

Estimating true prevalence of Schistosoma mansoni from population summary measures based on the Kato-Katz diagnostic technique.

BACKGROUND: The prevalence of Schistosoma mansoni infection is usually assessed by the Kato-Katz diagnostic technique. However, Kato-Katz thick smears have low sensitivity, especially for light infections. Egg count models fitted on individual level data can adjust for the infection intensity-dependent sensitivity and estimate the 'true' prevalence in a population. However, application of these models is complex and there is a need for adjustments that can be done without modeling expertise. This study provides estimates of the 'true' S. mansoni prevalence from population summary measures of observed prevalence and infection intensity using extensive simulations parametrized with data from different settings in sub-Saharan Africa. METHODOLOGY: An individual-level egg count model was applied to Kato-Katz data to determine the S. mansoni infection intensity-dependent sensitivity for various sampling schemes. Observations in populations with varying forces of transmission were simulated, using standard assumptions about the distribution of worms and their mating behavior. Summary measures such as the geometric mean infection, arithmetic mean infection, and the observed prevalence of the simulations were calculated, and parametric statistical models fitted to the summary measures for each sampling scheme. For validation, the simulation-based estimates are compared with an observational dataset not used to inform the simulation. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Overall, the sensitivity of Kato-Katz in a population varies according to the mean infection intensity. Using a parametric model, which takes into account different sampling schemes varying from single Kato-Katz to triplicate slides over three days, both geometric and arithmetic mean infection intensities improve estimation of sensitivity. The relation between observed and 'true' prevalence is remarkably linear and triplicate slides per day on three consecutive days ensure close to perfect sensitivity. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Estimation of 'true' S. mansoni prevalence is improved when taking into account geometric or arithmetic mean infection intensity in a population. We supply parametric functions and corresponding estimates of their parameters to calculate the 'true' prevalence for sampling schemes up to 3 days with triplicate Kato-Katz thick smears per day that allow estimation of the 'true' prevalence.

Integrated delivery of school health interventions through the school platform: Investing for the future.

School health and nutrition (SHN) programmes are recognized as a significant contributor to both health and education sector goals. The school system offers an ideal platform from which to deliver basic health interventions that target the most common health conditions affecting school-age children (SAC) in low-income countries, leading to improved participation and learning outcomes. However, governments require evidence to cost, design, and implement these programmes. In Ethiopia, prevalent health conditions affecting SAC's education participation and learning outcomes include infection with soil-transmitted helminths (STHs), hunger, and malnutrition. In recognition of the multiple issues affecting the health and education of SAC, the government has taken a proactive approach, coordinating an integrated SHN programme designed to be implemented in partnership and monitored and financed through a single, integrated mechanism. The programme, known as the Enhanced School Health Initiative (ESHI), integrates three complimentary health interventions: deworming; school feeding; and provision of a water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH) package in schools, which in delivery aim to maximize the benefits of each of the individual components. Operational research surrounding the ESHI programme includes both qualitative and quantitative analyses. Here, we present an overview of the ESHI programme and its genesis. We also introduce three additional supporting papers that provide in-depth analyses of key findings, including the baseline situational analysis, the costs, and community perceptions of the programme. The findings from ESHI provide initial evidence to develop an understanding of the related costs and synergies of integrating multiple health interventions onto a single platform. The work has translated into strengthened institutional capacity and improved cross-sectoral coordination. The government is now committed to supporting 25 million school children in Ethiopia through SHN. The ESHI model serves as a reference point for other countries looking to scale up targeted SHN interventions.

Optimising age adjustment of trichiasis prevalence estimates using data from 162 standardised surveys from seven regions of Ethiopia.

PURPOSE: The prevalence of trichiasis is higher in females and increases markedly with age. Surveys carried out in the daytime, particularly in developing countries, are prone to find older individuals and females at home at the time of the survey. Population-level trichiasis estimates should adjust sample proportions to reflect the demographic breakdown of the population, although the most accurate method of doing this is unclear. METHODS: Having obtained data from 162 surveys carried out in Ethiopia as part of the Global Trachoma Mapping Project from 2012 to 2015, we used internal validation with both Brier and Logarithmic forecast scoring to test stratification models to identify those models with the highest predictive accuracy. Selection of partitions was undertaken by both simple random sampling (SRS) and cluster sampling (CS) over 8192 selections. RESULTS: A total of 4529 (1.9%) cases of trichiasis were identified from 241,139 individuals aged ≥15 years from a total of 4210 kebeles and 122,090 households visited. Overall, the binning method using 5-year bands from age 15 to 69 years, with coarser binning in 20-year age-bands above this age, provided the best predictive accuracy, in both SRS and CS methodologies and for both the Brier and Logarithmic scoring rules. CONCLUSION: The greatest predictive accuracy for trichiasis estimates was found by adjusting for sex and in 5-year age-bands from the age of 15 to 69 years and in 20-year age-bands in those aged 70 years and greater. Trichiasis surveys attempting to make population-level inferences should use this method to optimise surgery backlog estimates.

The global burden of trichiasis in 2016.

BACKGROUND: Trichiasis is present when one or more eyelashes touches the eye. Uncorrected, it can cause blindness. Accurate estimates of numbers affected, and their geographical distribution, help guide resource allocation. METHODS: We obtained district-level trichiasis prevalence estimates in adults for 44 endemic and previously-endemic countries. We used (1) the most recent data for a district, if more than one estimate was available; (2) age- and sex-standardized corrections of historic estimates, where raw data were available; (3) historic estimates adjusted using a mean adjustment factor for districts where raw data were unavailable; and (4) expert assessment of available data for districts for which no prevalence estimates were available. FINDINGS: Internally age- and sex-standardized data represented 1,355 districts and contributed 662 thousand cases (95% confidence interval [CI] 324 thousand-1.1 million) to the global total. Age- and sex-standardized district-level prevalence estimates differed from raw estimates by a mean factor of 0.45 (range 0.03-2.28). Previously non- stratified estimates for 398 districts, adjusted by ×0.45, contributed a further 411 thousand cases (95% CI 283-557 thousand). Eight countries retained previous estimates, contributing 848 thousand cases (95% CI 225 thousand-1.7 million). New expert assessments in 14 countries contributed 862 thousand cases (95% CI 228 thousand-1.7 million). The global trichiasis burden in 2016 was 2.8 million cases (95% CI 1.1-5.2 million). INTERPRETATION: The 2016 estimate is lower than previous estimates, probably due to more and better data; scale-up of trichiasis management services; and reductions in incidence due to lower active trachoma prevalence.

Integrated morbidity mapping of lymphatic filariasis and podoconiosis cases in 20 co-endemic districts of Ethiopia.

BACKGROUND: Lymphatic filariasis (LF) and podoconiosis are neglected tropical diseases (NTDs) that pose a significant physical, social and economic burden to endemic communities. Patients affected by the clinical conditions of LF (lymphoedema and hydrocoele) and podoconiosis (lymphoedema) need access to morbidity management and disability prevention (MMDP) services. Clear estimates of the number and location of these patients are essential to the efficient and equitable implementation of MMDP services for both diseases. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPLE FINDINGS: A community-based cross-sectional study was conducted in Ethiopia using the Health Extension Worker (HEW) network to identify all cases of lymphoedema and hydrocoele in 20 woredas (districts) co-endemic for LF and podoconiosis. A total of 612 trained HEWs and 40 supervisors from 20 districts identified 26,123 cases of clinical morbidity. Of these, 24,908 (95.3%) reported cases had leg lymphoedema only, 751 (2.9%) had hydrocoele, 387 (1.5%) had both leg lymphoedema and hydrocoele, and 77 (0.3%) cases had breast lymphoedema. Of those reporting leg lymphoedema, 89.3% reported bilateral lymphoedema. Older age groups were more likely to have a severe stage of disease, have bilateral lymphoedema and to have experienced an acute attack in the last six months. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: This study represents the first community-wide, integrated clinical case mapping of both LF and podoconiosis in Ethiopia. It highlights the high number of cases, particularly of leg lymphoedema that could be attributed to either of these diseases. This key clinical information will assist and guide the allocation of resources to where they are needed most.