Cost-effectiveness of CT screening in the National Lung Screening Trial.

BACKGROUND: The National Lung Screening Trial (NLST) showed that screening with low-dose computed tomography (CT) as compared with chest radiography reduced lung-cancer mortality. We examined the cost-effectiveness of screening with low-dose CT in the NLST. METHODS: We estimated mean life-years, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), costs per person, and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) for three alternative strategies: screening with low-dose CT, screening with radiography, and no screening. Estimations of life-years were based on the number of observed deaths that occurred during the trial and the projected survival of persons who were alive at the end of the trial. Quality adjustments were derived from a subgroup of participants who were selected to complete quality-of-life surveys. Costs were based on utilization rates and Medicare reimbursements. We also performed analyses of subgroups defined according to age, sex, smoking history, and risk of lung cancer and performed sensitivity analyses based on several assumptions. RESULTS: As compared with no screening, screening with low-dose CT cost an additional $1,631 per person (95% confidence interval [CI], 1,557 to 1,709) and provided an additional 0.0316 life-years per person (95% CI, 0.0154 to 0.0478) and 0.0201 QALYs per person (95% CI, 0.0088 to 0.0314). The corresponding ICERs were $52,000 per life-year gained (95% CI, 34,000 to 106,000) and $81,000 per QALY gained (95% CI, 52,000 to 186,000). However, the ICERs varied widely in subgroup and sensitivity analyses. CONCLUSIONS: We estimated that screening for lung cancer with low-dose CT would cost $81,000 per QALY gained, but we also determined that modest changes in our assumptions would greatly alter this figure. The determination of whether screening outside the trial will be cost-effective will depend on how screening is implemented. (Funded by the National Cancer Institute; NLST ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT00047385.).

Implementing Computerized Provider Order Entry in Acute Care Hospitals in the United States Could Generate Substantial Savings to Society.

BACKGROUND: Computerized provider order entry (CPOE) with clinical decision support is a basic criterion for hospitals' meaningful use of electronic health record systems. A study was conducted to evaluate from the societal perspective the cost-utility of implementing CPOE in acute care hospitals in the United States. METHODS: A decision-analytical model compared CPOE with paper ordering among patients admitted to acute care hospitals with >25 beds. Parameters included start-up and maintenance costs, as well as costs for provider time use, medication and laboratory test ordering, and preventable adverse drug events. Probabilistic analyses produced incremental costs, effectiveness, and cost-effectiveness ratios for hospitals in four bed-size categories (25-72, 72-141, 141-267, 267-2,249). RESULTS: Relative to paper ordering and using typical estimates of implementation costs, CPOE had, on average, >99% probability of yielding savings to society and improving health. Per hospital in each size category, mean life-time savings -in millions-were $11.6 (standard deviation, $9.30), $34.4 ($21.2), $71.8 ($43.8), and $170 ($119) (2012 dollars), respectively, and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) gained were 19.9 (16.9), 53.7 (38.7), 109 (79.6), and 249 (205). Incremental effectiveness and costs were less favorable in certain circumstances, such as high implementation costs. Nationwide, anticipated increases in CPOE implementation from 2009 through 2015 could save $133 billion and 201,000 QALYs. CONCLUSIONS: In addition to improving health, implementing CPOE with clinical decision support could yield substantial long-term savings to society in the United States, although results for individual hospitals are likely to vary.

Randomized clinical trial of an emergency department observation syncope protocol versus routine inpatient admission.

STUDY OBJECTIVE: Older adults are frequently hospitalized from the emergency department (ED) after an episode of unexplained syncope. Current admission patterns are costly, with little evidence of benefit. We hypothesize that an ED observation syncope protocol will reduce resource use without adversely affecting patient-oriented outcomes. METHODS: This randomized trial at 5 EDs compared an ED observation syncope protocol to inpatient admission for intermediate-risk adults (≥50 years) presenting with syncope or near syncope. Primary outcomes included inpatient admission rate and length of stay. Secondary outcomes included 30-day and 6-month serious outcomes after hospital discharge, index and 30-day hospital costs, 30-day quality-of-life scores, and 30-day patient satisfaction. RESULTS: Study staff randomized 124 patients. Observation resulted in a lower inpatient admission rate (15% versus 92%; 95% confidence interval [CI] difference -88% to -66%) and shorter hospital length of stay (29 versus 47 hours; 95% CI difference -28 to -8). Serious outcome rates after hospital discharge were similar for observation versus admission at 30 days (3% versus 0%; 95% CI difference -1% to 8%) and 6 months (8% versus 10%; 95% CI difference -13% to 9%). Index hospital costs in the observation group were $629 (95% CI difference -$1,376 to -$56) lower than in the admission group. There were no differences in 30-day quality-of-life scores or in patient satisfaction. CONCLUSION: An ED observation syncope protocol reduced the primary outcomes of admission rate and hospital length of stay. Analyses of secondary outcomes suggest reduction in index hospital costs, with no difference in safety events, quality of life, or patient satisfaction. Our findings suggest that an ED observation syncope protocol can be replicated and safely reduce resource use.

Economic evaluation of quality improvement interventions to prevent catheter-associated urinary tract infections in the hospital setting: a systematic review.

BACKGROUND: Hospitals have implemented diverse quality improvement (QI) interventions to reduce rates of catheter-associated urinary tract infections (CAUTIs). The economic value of these QI interventions is uncertain. OBJECTIVE: To systematically review economic evaluations of QI interventions designed to prevent CAUTI in acute care hospitals. METHODS: A search of Ovid MEDLINE, Econlit, Centre for Reviews & Dissemination, New York Academy of Medicine's Grey Literature Report, WorldCat, IDWeek conference abstracts and prior systematic reviews was conducted from January 2000 to October 2020.We included English-language studies of any design that evaluated organisational or structural changes to prevent CAUTI in acute care hospitals, and reported programme and infection-related costs.Dual reviewers assessed study design, effectiveness, costs and study quality. For each eligible study, we performed a cost-consequences analysis from the hospital perspective, estimating the incidence rate ratio (IRR) and incremental net cost/savings per hospital over 3 years. Unadjusted weighted regression analyses tested predictors of these measures, weighted by catheter days per study. RESULTS: Fifteen unique economic evaluations were eligible, encompassing 74 hospitals. Across 12 studies amenable to standardisation, QI interventions were associated with a 43% decline in infections (mean IRR 0.57, 95% CI 0.44 to 0.70) and wide ranges of net costs (mean US$52 000, 95% CI -$288 000 to $392 000), relative to usual care. CONCLUSIONS: QI interventions were associated with large declines in infection rates and net costs to hospitals that varied greatly but that, on average, were not significantly different from zero over 3 years. Future research should examine specific practices associated with cost-savings and clinical effectiveness, and examine whether or not more comprehensive interventions offer hospitals and patients the best value.

Is patient-perceived severity of a geriatric condition related to better quality of care?

BACKGROUND: Care for falls and urinary incontinence (UI) among older patients is inadequate. One possible explanation is that physicians provide less recommended care to patients who are not as concerned about their falls and UI. OBJECTIVE: To test whether patient-reported severity for 2 geriatric conditions, falls, and UI, is associated with quality of care. RESEARCH DESIGN: Prospective cohort study of elders with falls and/or fear of falling (n = 384) and UI (n = 163). SUBJECTS: Participants in the Assessing Care of Vulnerable Elders-2 Study (2002-2003), which evaluated an intervention to improve the care for falls and UI among older (age, ≥ 75) ambulatory care patients with falls/fear of falling or UI. MEASURES: Falls Efficacy Scale (FES) and the Incontinence Quality of Life surveys measured at baseline, quality of care measured by a 13-month medical record abstraction. RESULTS: There was a small difference in falls quality scores across the range of FES, with greater patient-perceived falls severity associated with better odds of passing falls quality indicators (OR: 1.11 [95% CI: 1.02-1.21] per 10-point increment in FES). Greater patient-perceived UI severity (Incontinence Quality of Life score) was not associated with better quality of UI care. CONCLUSIONS: Although older persons with greater patient-perceived falls severity receive modestly better quality of care, those with more distressing incontinence do not. For both conditions, however, even the most symptomatic patients received less than half of recommended care. Low patient-perceived severity of condition is not the basis of poor care for falls and UI.

Validation of a Brief Multi-Dimensional Assessment of Dementia Severity.

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES: Briefer measures of symptoms and functional limitations may reduce assessment burden and facilitate monitoring populations of persons with dementia (PWD). DESIGN: Prospective follow-up study. SETTING: University-based dementia care management program. PARTICIPANTS: 1,091 PWD. MEASUREMENTS: We assessed cognition (Mini Mental State Examination (MMSE)-11 tasks), neuropsychiatric symptom severity (Neuropsychiatric Inventory Questionnaire Severity Scale (NPIQ-S)-12 items), and functional ability (Activities of Daily Living (ADL)-6 items; Functional Activities Questionnaire (FAQ)-10 items). Item response theory was used to select subsets of items by identifying low item discrimination (<1.50), poor item fit (χ2 ), local dependence (LD), and with difficulty similar to other items. We estimated correlations between original and shorter scales and compared their associations with mortality. We added two symptoms (trouble swallowing, coughing when eating) reflecting late-stage dementia complications, created a multi-dimensional dementia assessment composite, and examined its association with mortality. RESULTS: Five MMSE tasks were eliminated: two with low discrimination, two with difficulty similar to other items, and one with poor fit. The remaining tasks were correlated with the full MMSE at r = 0.82. We retained three ADLs that were correlated with the total ADL set at r = 0.95 and kept five FAQ items that were not LD (correlation with full FAQ, r = 0.97). Associations with mortality were similar between the longer and shorter scales. A higher score on the composite (range 0-100) indicates worse dementia impact and was associated with mortality (hazard ratio (HR) per scale point: 1.03 (1.02-1.04)). CONCLUSION: These brief assessments and dementia composite may reduce administration time while preserving validity.

The Effects of Dementia Care Co-Management on Acute Care, Hospice, and Long-Term Care Utilization.

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES: Although nurse practitioner dementia care co-management has been shown to reduce total cost of care for fee-for-service (FFS) Medicare beneficiaries, the reasons for cost savings are unknown. To further understand the impact of dementia co-management on costs, we examined acute care utilization, long-term care admissions, and hospice use of program enrollees as compared with persons with dementia not in the program using FFS and managed Medicare claims data. DESIGN: Quasi-experimental controlled before-and-after comparison. SETTING: Urban academic medical center. PARTICIPANTS: A total of 856 University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA) Alzheimer's and Dementia Care program patients were enrolled between July 1, 2012, and December 31, 2015, and 3,139 similar UCLA patients with dementia not in the program. Comparison patients were identified as having dementia using International Classification of Diseases-9 codes and natural language processing of clinical notes. Coarsened exact matching was used to reduce covariate imbalance between intervention and comparison patients. INTERVENTION: Dementia co-management model using nurse practitioners partnered with primary care providers and community organizations. MEASUREMENTS: Average difference-in-differences per quarter over the 2.5-year intervention period for all-cause hospitalization, emergency department (ED) visits, intensive care unit (ICU) stays, and number of inpatient hospitalization days; admissions to long-term care facilities; and hospice use in the last 6 months of life. RESULTS: Intervention patients had fewer ED visits (odds ratio [OR] = .80; 95% confidence interval [CI] = .66-.97) and shorter hospital length of stay (incident rate ratio = .74; 95% CI = .55-.99). There were no significant differences between groups for hospitalizations or ICU stays. Program participants were less likely to be admitted to a long-term care facility (hazard ratio = .65; 95% CI = .47-.89) and more likely to receive hospice services in the last 6 months of life (adjusted OR = 1.64; 95% CI = 1.13-2.37). CONCLUSION: Comprehensive nurse practitioner dementia care co-management reduced ED visits, shortened hospital length of stay, increased hospice use, and delayed admission to long-term care.

Patient and Caregiver Benefit From a Comprehensive Dementia Care Program: 1-Year Results From the UCLA Alzheimer's and Dementia Care Program.

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES: Persons with Alzheimer disease and related dementias (ADRDs) require comprehensive care that spans health systems and community-based organizations. This study examined the clinical outcomes of a comprehensive dementia care program and identified subgroups who were more likely to benefit. DESIGN: Observational, baseline and 1 year after intervention. SETTING: Urban, academic medical center. PARTICIPANTS: A total of 554 persons with dementia and their caregivers who had 1-year follow-up evaluations and data on clinical outcomes. INTERVENTION: Health system-based comprehensive dementia care management program using nurse practitioner dementia care managers. MEASUREMENTS: Patient measures included the Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE), the Functional Activities Questionnaire, Basic and Instrumental Activities of Daily Living scales, the Cornell Scale for Depression in Dementia, and the Neuropsychiatric Inventory Questionnaire (NPI-Q) Severity. Caregiver measures included the Modified Caregiver Strain Index, the Patient Health Questionnaire-9, NPI-Q Distress, and the Dementia Burden Scale-Caregiver). We used established minimal clinically important differences and lowest tertiles of baseline symptoms to define improving symptoms and maintaining low symptoms as clinical benefit for patients and caregivers. RESULTS: At year 1, persons with ADRD improved on all scales, except MMSE and functional status measures; caregivers improved on all scales. Using validated instruments, 314/543 (58%) of patients, 282/447 (63%) of caregivers, and 376/501 (75%) of patients or caregivers demonstrated clinical benefit. In adjusted multivariate models, at year 1, more behavioral symptoms and fewer depression symptoms at baseline were associated with patient improvement; and fewer baseline depression symptoms were associated with maintaining low behavioral symptoms. Male caregiver sex, higher baseline caregiver burden, and caring for patients with fewer baseline depression symptoms were associated with caregiver improvement. Male caregiver sex and patients with fewer depression symptoms, fewer behavioral symptoms, and more functional impairment at baseline were associated with caregivers maintaining low burden at 1 year. CONCLUSIONS: Health system-based comprehensive dementia care management is a promising approach to improving clinical outcomes, with benefits for both patients and caregivers. J Am Geriatr Soc 67:2267-2273, 2019.

Evaluation of an Intervention to Reduce Low-Value Preoperative Care for Patients Undergoing Cataract Surgery at a Safety-Net Health System.

Importance: Preoperative testing for cataract surgery epitomizes low-value care and still occurs frequently, even at one of the nation's largest safety-net health systems. Objective: To evaluate a multipronged intervention to reduce low-value preoperative care for patients undergoing cataract surgery and analyze costs from various fiscal perspectives. Design, Setting, and Participants: This study took place at 2 academic safety-net medical centers, Los Angeles County and University of Southern California (LAC-USC) (intervention, n = 469) and Harbor-UCLA (University of California, Los Angeles) (control, n = 585), from April 13, 2015, through April 12, 2016, with 12 additional months (April 13, 2016, through April 13, 2017) to assess sustainability (intervention, n = 1002; control, n = 511). To compare pre- and postintervention vs control group utilization and cost changes, logistic regression assessing time-by-group interactions was used. Interventions: Using plan-do-study-act cycles, a quality improvement nurse reviewed medical records and engaged the anesthesiology and ophthalmology chiefs with data on overuse; all 3 educated staff and trainees on reducing routine preoperative care. Main Outcomes and Measures: Percentage of patients undergoing cataract surgery with preoperative medical visits, chest x-rays, laboratory tests, and electrocardiograms. Costs were estimated from LAC-USC's financially capitated perspective, and costs were simulated from fee-for-service (FFS) health system and societal perspectives. Results: Of 1054 patients, 546 (51.8%) were female (mean [SD] age, 60.6 [11.1] years). Preoperative visits decreased from 93% to 24% in the intervention group and increased from 89% to 91% in the control group (between-group difference, -71%; 95% CI, -80% to -62%). Chest x-rays decreased from 90% to 24% in the intervention group and increased from 75% to 83% in the control group (between-group difference, -75%; 95% CI, -86% to -65%). Laboratory tests decreased from 92% to 37% in the intervention group and decreased from 98% to 97% in the control group (between-group difference, -56%; 95% CI, -64% to -48%). Electrocardiograms decreased from 95% to 29% in the intervention group and increased from 86% to 94% in the control group (between-group difference, -74%; 95% CI, -83% to -65%). During 12-month follow-up, visits increased in the intervention group to 67%, but chest x-rays (12%), laboratory tests (28%), and electrocardiograms (11%) remained low (P < .001 for all time-group interactions in both periods). At LAC-USC, losses of $42 241 in year 1 were attributable to intervention costs, and 3-year projections estimated $67 241 in savings. In a simulation of a FFS health system at 3 years, $88 151 in losses were estimated, and for societal 3-year perspectives, $217 322 in savings were estimated. Conclusions and Relevance: This intervention was associated with sustained reductions in low-value preoperative testing among patients undergoing cataract surgery and modest cost savings for the health system. The findings suggest that reducing low-value care may be associated with cost savings for financially capitated health systems and society but also with losses for FFS health systems, highlighting a potential barrier to eliminating low-value care.

Relation of familial patterns of coronary heart disease, stroke, and diabetes to subclinical atherosclerosis: the multi-ethnic study of atherosclerosis.

PURPOSE: To investigate the possibility that family history beyond early-onset coronary heart disease might contribute to coronary heart disease susceptibility, we studied associations between additional family history and the coronary artery calcium score. METHODS: Associations between coronary artery calcium score and self-reports of coronary heart disease, stroke, and diabetes in first-degree relatives of 5264 nondiabetic subjects were assessed using logistic and linear regression adjusting for risk factors; adjusted mean coronary artery calcium score estimates were determined by pooling results. RESULTS: Family history of coronary heart disease alone and in combination with diabetes and/or stroke was significantly associated with a positive coronary artery calcium score compared with no family history with odds ratios ranging from 1.7 (95% CI: 1.3-2.3) to 1.9 (95% CI: 1.6-2.3) and adjusted mean coronary artery calcium score estimates ranging from 137 (95% CI: 101-173) to 184 (95% CI: 143-226). Associations between family history of coronary heart disease and coronary artery calcium score were significant regardless of age at onset, sex, lineage, or number of relatives with coronary heart disease. The association between family history of diabetes only and coronary artery calcium score was also significant (OR, 1.3; 95% CI: 1.1-1.7) with an adjusted mean coronary artery calcium score estimate of 122 (95% CI: 93-151). Generally, family history of stroke had nonsignificant associations with coronary artery calcium score. CONCLUSIONS: Numerous family history variables in addition to early-onset coronary heart disease are associated with subclinical atherosclerosis. Our results have implications for improving coronary heart disease risk assessment.

Waste in the U.S. Health care system: a conceptual framework.

CONTEXT: Health care costs in the United States are much higher than those in industrial countries with similar or better health system performance. Wasteful spending has many undesirable consequences that could be alleviated through waste reduction. This article proposes a conceptual framework to guide researchers and policymakers in evaluating waste, implementing waste-reduction strategies, and reducing the burden of unnecessary health care spending. METHODS: This article divides health care waste into administrative, operational, and clinical waste and provides an overview of each. It explains how researchers have used both high-level and sector- or procedure-specific comparisons to quantify such waste, and it discusses examples and challenges in both waste measurement and waste reduction. FINDINGS: Waste is caused by factors such as health insurance and medical uncertainties that encourage the production of inefficient and low-value services. Various efforts to reduce such waste have encountered challenges, such as the high costs of initial investment, unintended administrative complexities, and trade-offs among patients', payers', and providers' interests. While categorizing waste may help identify and measure general types and sources of waste, successful reduction strategies must integrate the administrative, operational, and clinical components of care, and proceed by identifying goals, changing systemic incentives, and making specific process improvements. CONCLUSIONS: Classifying, identifying, and measuring waste elucidate its causes, clarify systemic goals, and specify potential health care reforms that-by improving the market for health insurance and health care-will generate incentives for better efficiency and thus ultimately decrease waste in the U.S. health care system.

A Composite Measure of Caregiver Burden in Dementia: The Dementia Burden Scale-Caregiver.

OBJECTIVES: To better capture the scope of caregiver burden by creating a composite of 3 existing measures that assess different health domains. DESIGN: Prospective follow-up study. SETTING: University-based dementia care management program. PARTICIPANTS: Caregivers of persons with dementia (PWD) (N=1,091). MEASUREMENTS: The composite measure (the Dementia Burden Scale-Caregiver (DBS-CG)) was based on the Modified Caregiver Strain Index, Neuropsychiatric Inventory Questionnaire Distress Scale, and Patient Health Questionnaire (PHQ-9). Alternative factor structures were evaluated using 2 confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) models: a bifactor model and a 3 correlated factors model. Good model fit was defined as a root mean square error of approximation (RMSEA) of less than 0.06 and comparative fit index (CFI) value greater than 0.95. Coefficient omega was used to estimate scale reliability. Minimally important differences (MIDs) were estimated by anchoring the magnitude of DBS-CG change to change in caregiver self-efficacy and functional ability of PWD. RESULTS: The bifactor CFA model fit best (RMSEA = 0.04, CFI = 0.95). Based on this model, a DBS-CG scale was created wherein all items were transformed to a possible range of 0 to 100 and then averaged. Higher scores indicate higher burden. Mean DBS-CG score was 27.3. The reliability was excellent (coefficient omega=0.93). MID estimates ranged from 4 to 5 points (effect sizes: 0.20-0.49). CONCLUSION: This study provides support for the reliability and validity of the DBS-CG. It can be used as an outcome measure to assess the effect of interventions to reduce dementia caregiver burden.

The Cost of Interventions to Increase Influenza Vaccination: A Systematic Review.

CONTEXT: Influenza vaccination rates remain below Healthy People 2020 goals. This project sought to systematically review economic evaluations of healthcare-based quality improvement interventions for improving influenza vaccination uptake among general populations and healthcare workers. EVIDENCE ACQUISITION: The databases MEDLINE, Econlit, Centre for Reviews & Dissemination, Greylit, and Worldcat were searched in July 2016 for papers published from January 2004 to July 2016. Eligible studies evaluated efforts by bodies within the healthcare system to encourage influenza vaccination by means of an organizational or structural change. For each study, program costs per enrollee and per additional enrollee vaccinated were derived (excluding vaccine costs, standardized to 2017 U.S. dollars). Complete economic evaluations were examined when available. EVIDENCE SYNTHESIS: Of 2,350 records, 18 articles were eligible and described 29 unique interventions. Most interventions improved vaccine uptake. Among 23 interventions in general populations, the median program cost was $3.27 (interquartile range, $0.82-$11.53) per enrollee and $50.78 (interquartile range, $27.85-$124.84) per additional enrollee vaccinated. Among ten complete economic evaluations in general populations, three studies reported net cost savings, four reported costs <$50,000 per quality-adjusted life year, and three reported costs <$60,000 per life saved. Among six interventions in healthcare workers, the median program cost was $8.09 (interquartile range, $5.03-$10.31) per worker enrolled and $125.24 (interquartile range, $96.06-$171.38) per additional worker vaccinated (there were no complete economic analyses). CONCLUSIONS: Quality improvement interventions for influenza vaccination involve per-enrollee costs that are similar to the cost of the vaccine itself ($11.78-$36.08/dose). Based on limited available evidence in general populations, quality improvement interventions may be cost saving to cost effective for the health system.

Economic Evaluation of Quality Improvement Interventions Designed to Improve Glycemic Control in Diabetes: A Systematic Review and Weighted Regression Analysis.

OBJECTIVE: Quality improvement (QI) interventions can improve glycemic control, but little is known about their value. We systematically reviewed economic evaluations of QI interventions for glycemic control among adults with type 1 or type 2 diabetes. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: We used English-language studies from high-income countries that evaluated organizational changes and reported program and utilization-related costs, chosen from PubMed, EconLit, Centre for Reviews and Dissemination, New York Academy of Medicine's Grey Literature Report, and WorldCat (January 2004 to August 2016). We extracted data regarding intervention, study design, change in HbA1c, time horizon, perspective, incremental net cost (studies lasting ≤3 years), incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) (studies lasting ≥20 years), and study quality. Weighted least-squares regression analysis was used to estimate mean changes in HbA1c and incremental net cost. RESULTS: Of 3,646 records, 46 unique studies were eligible. Across 19 randomized controlled trials (RCTs), HbA1c declined by 0.26% (95% CI 0.17-0.35) or 3 mmol/mol (2 to 4) relative to usual care. In 8 RCTs lasting ≤3 years, incremental net costs were $116 (95% CI -$612 to $843) per patient annually. Long-term ICERs were $100,000-$115,000/quality-adjusted life year (QALY) in 3 RCTs, $50,000-$99,999/QALY in 1 RCT, $0-$49,999/QALY in 4 RCTs, and dominant in 1 RCT. Results were more favorable in non-RCTs. Our limitations include the fact that the studies had diverse designs and involved moderate risk of bias. CONCLUSIONS: Diverse multifaceted QI interventions that lower HbA1c appear to be a fair-to-good value relative to usual care, depending on society's willingness to pay for improvements in health.

A model for a smallpox-vaccination policy.

BACKGROUND: The new reality of biologic terrorism and warfare has ignited a debate about whether to reintroduce smallpox vaccination. METHODS: We developed scenarios of smallpox attacks and built a stochastic model of outcomes under various control policies. We conducted a systematic literature review and estimated model parameters on the basis of European and North American outbreaks since World War II. We assessed the trade-offs between vaccine-related harms and benefits. RESULTS: Nations or terrorists possessing a smallpox weapon could feasibly mount attacks that vary with respect to tactical complexity and target size, and patterns of spread can be expected to vary according to whether index patients are hospitalized early. For acceptable results, vaccination of contacts must be accompanied by effective isolation. Vaccination of contacts plus isolation is expected to result in 7 deaths (from vaccine or smallpox) in a scenario involving the release of variola virus from a laboratory, 19 deaths in a human-vector scenario, 300 deaths in a building-attack scenario, 2735 deaths in a scenario involving a low-impact airport attack, and 54,729 deaths in a scenario involving a high-impact airport attack. Immediate vaccination of the public in an attacked region would provide little additional benefit. Prior vaccination of health care workers, who would be disproportionately affected, would save lives in large local or national attacks but would cause 25 deaths nationally. Prior vaccination of health care workers and the public would save lives in a national attack but would cause 482 deaths nationally. The expected net benefits of vaccination depend on the assessed probability of an attack. Prior vaccination of health care workers would be expected to save lives if the probability of a building attack exceeded 0.22 or if the probability of a high-impact airport attack exceeded 0.002. The probability would have to be much higher to make vaccination of the public life-saving. CONCLUSIONS: The analysis favors prior vaccination of health care workers unless the likelihood of any attack is very low, but it favors vaccination of the public only if the likelihood of a national attack or of multiple attacks is high.

Perceived causes of disability added prognostic value beyond medical conditions and functional status.

OBJECTIVE: This study's objective was to determine the incremental benefit of respondent subjective attribution of functional decline beyond relying solely on disease burden in predicting survival. STUDY DESIGN AND SETTINGS: A total of 9447 older adults from the Second Longitudinal Study on Aging, a probability sample of community dwelling adults aged 70 or older, were evaluated. Survival was based on status at follow-up interview 3-4 years after baseline interview. Logistic regression was performed using demographic variables and coexisting diseases as a baseline, then adding functional status measures (ADL, IADL) and individual subjective attribution of functional limitation in subsequent models. RESULTS: The predictions improved significantly with the addition of functional status measures (P<0.001) and the individual subjective attribution of functional limitation (P<0.001). For example, the probability of mortality for individuals with cancer was 17.3%, but 28.8% of those with cancer and functional limitations died as did 50% of those with cancer who reported functional limitations attributable to cancer. CONCLUSION: Among persons who can make a specific attribution of their functional limitation, the attribution may have value as a marker of severity of disease and serve as a good predictive measure for mortality, especially in specific illnesses such as cancer.

Can a chronic care model collaborative reduce heart disease risk in patients with diabetes?

BACKGROUND: There is a need to identify effective practical interventions to decrease cardiovascular disease risk in patients with diabetes. OBJECTIVE: We examine the impact of participation in a collaborative implementing the chronic care model (CCM) on the reduction of cardiovascular disease risk in patients with diabetes. DESIGN: Controlled pre- and postintervention study. PATIENTS/PARTICIPANTS: Persons with diabetes receiving care at 13 health care organizations exposed to the CCM collaborative and controls receiving care in nonexposed sites. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: Ten-year risk of cardiovascular disease; determined using a modified United Kingdom Prospective Diabetes Study risk engine score. A total number of 613 patients from CCM intervention sites and 557 patients from usual care control sites met the inclusion criteria. The baseline mean 10-year risk of cardiovascular disease was 31% for both the intervention group and the control group. Participants in both groups had improved blood pressure, lipid levels, and HbA1c levels during the observation period. Random intercept hierarchical regression models showed that the intervention group had a 2.1% (95% CI -3.7%, -0.5%) greater reduction in predicted risk for future cardiovascular events when compared to the control group. This would result in a reduced risk of one cardiovascular disease event for every 48 patients exposed to the intervention. CONCLUSIONS: Over a 1-year interval, this collaborative intervention using the CCM lowered the cardiovascular disease risk factors of patients with diabetes who were cared for in the participating organization's settings. Further work could enhance the impact of this promising multifactorial intervention on cardiovascular disease risk reduction.

The effects of multi-hospital systems on hospital prices.

US hospital prices are rising again after years of limited growth. We analyze trends in hospital prices during a period of significant price growth (1999-2003) to assess whether hospitals that are part of multi-hospital systems were able to increase their prices faster than non-system hospitals. We find hospitals that were members of multi-hospital systems were able to increase their prices substantially more than comparable non-systems hospitals (34% for large systems and 17% for small systems). Further, we find that the systems effect is not confined to hospitals that have other system member hospitals in their local markets. One possible explanation is that hospitals belonging to non-local multi-hospital systems have improved their bargaining position vis-à-vis health plans.