Finding middle ground: Extending conservation beyond wilderness areas.

We show that because of methodological improvements, the human modification map detects higher levels of land modification and is more accurate than the human footprint map across the gradient of modification globally. While we agree that protecting the world's least modified lands or wildlands is essential for conservation, we assert that extending conservation actions to better "manage the middle" are urgently needed to ensure healthy functioning ecosystems for people and nature. This article is a commentary on Kennedy et al., 25, 811-826; See also the Commentary on this article by Venter et al., 26, 330-332.

Natural climate solutions.

Better stewardship of land is needed to achieve the Paris Climate Agreement goal of holding warming to below 2 °C; however, confusion persists about the specific set of land stewardship options available and their mitigation potential. To address this, we identify and quantify "natural climate solutions" (NCS): 20 conservation, restoration, and improved land management actions that increase carbon storage and/or avoid greenhouse gas emissions across global forests, wetlands, grasslands, and agricultural lands. We find that the maximum potential of NCS-when constrained by food security, fiber security, and biodiversity conservation-is 23.8 petagrams of CO2 equivalent (PgCO2e) y-1 (95% CI 20.3-37.4). This is ≥30% higher than prior estimates, which did not include the full range of options and safeguards considered here. About half of this maximum (11.3 PgCO2e y-1) represents cost-effective climate mitigation, assuming the social cost of CO2 pollution is ≥100 USD MgCO2e-1 by 2030. Natural climate solutions can provide 37% of cost-effective CO2 mitigation needed through 2030 for a >66% chance of holding warming to below 2 °C. One-third of this cost-effective NCS mitigation can be delivered at or below 10 USD MgCO2-1 Most NCS actions-if effectively implemented-also offer water filtration, flood buffering, soil health, biodiversity habitat, and enhanced climate resilience. Work remains to better constrain uncertainty of NCS mitigation estimates. Nevertheless, existing knowledge reported here provides a robust basis for immediate global action to improve ecosystem stewardship as a major solution to climate change.

Managing the middle: A shift in conservation priorities based on the global human modification gradient.

An increasing number of international initiatives aim to reconcile development with conservation. Crucial to successful implementation of these initiatives is a comprehensive understanding of the current ecological condition of landscapes and their spatial distributions. Here, we provide a cumulative measure of human modification of terrestrial lands based on modeling the physical extents of 13 anthropogenic stressors and their estimated impacts using spatially explicit global datasets with a median year of 2016. We quantified the degree of land modification and the amount and spatial configuration of low modified lands (i.e., natural areas relatively free from human alteration) across all ecoregions and biomes. We identified that fewer unmodified lands remain than previously reported and that most of the world is in a state of intermediate modification, with 52% of ecoregions classified as moderately modified. Given that these moderately modified ecoregions fall within critical land use thresholds, we propose that they warrant elevated attention and require proactive spatial planning to maintain biodiversity and ecosystem function before important environmental values are lost.

We need both natural and energy solutions to stabilize our climate.

We respond to concerns raised by Baldocchi and Penuelas who question the potential for ecosystems to provide carbon sinks and storage, and conclude that we should focus on decarbonizing our energy systems. While we agree with many of their concerns, we arrive at a different conclusion: we need strong action to advance both clean energy solutions and natural climate solutions (NCS) if we are to stabilize warming well below 2°C. Cost-effective NCS can deliver 11.3 PgCO2 e yr-1 or ~30% of near-term climate mitigation needs through protection, improved management, and restoration of ecosystems, as we increase overall ambition.

Water Stress from High-Volume Hydraulic Fracturing Potentially Threatens Aquatic Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services in Arkansas, United States.

Demand for high-volume, short duration water withdrawals could create water stress to aquatic organisms in Fayetteville Shale streams sourced for hydraulic fracturing fluids. We estimated potential water stress using permitted water withdrawal volumes and actual water withdrawals compared to monthly median, low, and high streamflows. Risk for biological stress was considered at 20% of long-term median and 10% of high- and low-flow thresholds. Future well build-out projections estimated potential for continued stress. Most water was permitted from small, free-flowing streams and "frack" ponds (dammed streams). Permitted 12-h pumping volumes exceeded median streamflow at 50% of withdrawal sites in June, when flows were low. Daily water usage, from operator disclosures, compared to median streamflow showed possible water stress in 7-51% of catchments from June-November, respectively. If 100% of produced water was recycled, per-well water use declined by 25%, reducing threshold exceedance by 10%. Future water stress was predicted to occur in fewer catchments important for drinking water and species of conservation concern due to the decline in new well installations and increased use of recycled water. Accessible and precise withdrawal and streamflow data are critical moving forward to assess and mitigate water stress in streams that experience high-volume withdrawals.

Unconventional Oil and Gas Spills: Risks, Mitigation Priorities, and State Reporting Requirements.

Rapid growth in unconventional oil and gas (UOG) has produced jobs, revenue, and energy, but also concerns over spills and environmental risks. We assessed spill data from 2005 to 2014 at 31 481 UOG wells in Colorado, New Mexico, North Dakota, and Pennsylvania. We found 2-16% of wells reported a spill each year. Median spill volumes ranged from 0.5 m3 in Pennsylvania to 4.9 m3 in New Mexico; the largest spills exceeded 100 m3. Seventy-five to 94% of spills occurred within the first three years of well life when wells were drilled, completed, and had their largest production volumes. Across all four states, 50% of spills were related to storage and moving fluids via flowlines. Reporting rates varied by state, affecting spill rates and requiring extensive time and effort getting data into a usable format. Enhanced and standardized regulatory requirements for reporting spills could improve the accuracy and speed of analyses to identify and prevent spill risks and mitigate potential environmental damage. Transparency for data sharing and analysis will be increasingly important as UOG development expands. We designed an interactive spills data visualization tool ( http://snappartnership.net/groups/hydraulic-fracturing/webapp/spills.html ) to illustrate the value of having standardized, public data.

Mapping global land conversion pressure to support conservation planning.

Proactively identifying where land conversion might occur is critical to targeted and effective conservation planning. Previous efforts to map future habitat loss have largely focused on forested systems and have been limited in their consideration of drivers of loss. We developed a 1-km resolution, global map of land conversion pressure from multiple drivers, referred to as the conversion pressure index (CPI). The CPI combines past rates of anthropogenic change, as measured by temporal human modification maps, with suitability maps for potential future expansion by large-scale development. The CPI thus offers a new way to measure a cumulative gradient of anthropogenic pressure as opposed to categorical land cover change. We find that nearly 23% of land across 200 countries have relatively high conversion pressure, potentially impacting over 460 million ha of intact natural lands. We illustrate how this information can be used to identify areas for proactive conservation to avoid future loss and ensure that national commitments under the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity and Paris Agreement Climate Frameworks are upheld.

Mapping the planet's critical areas for biodiversity and nature's contributions to people.

Meeting global commitments to conservation, climate, and sustainable development requires consideration of synergies and tradeoffs among targets. We evaluate the spatial congruence of ecosystems providing globally high levels of nature's contributions to people, biodiversity, and areas with high development potential across several sectors. We find that conserving approximately half of global land area through protection or sustainable management could provide 90% of the current levels of ten of nature's contributions to people and meet minimum representation targets for 26,709 terrestrial vertebrate species. This finding supports recent commitments by national governments under the Global Biodiversity Framework to conserve at least 30% of global lands and waters, and proposals to conserve half of the Earth. More than one-third of areas required for conserving nature's contributions to people and species are also highly suitable for agriculture, renewable energy, oil and gas, mining, or urban expansion. This indicates potential conflicts among conservation, climate and development goals.

An Artificial Intelligence Dataset for Solar Energy Locations in India.

Rapid development of renewable energy sources, particularly solar photovoltaics (PV), is critical to mitigate climate change. As a result, India has set ambitious goals to install 500 gigawatts of solar energy capacity by 2030. Given the large footprint projected to meet renewables energy targets, the potential for land use conflicts over environmental values is high. To expedite development of solar energy, land use planners will need access to up-to-date and accurate geo-spatial information of PV infrastructure. In this work, we developed a spatially explicit machine learning model to map utility-scale solar projects across India using freely available satellite imagery with a mean accuracy of 92%. Our model predictions were validated by human experts to obtain a dataset of 1363 solar PV farms. Using this dataset, we measure the solar footprint across India and quantified the degree of landcover modification associated with the development of PV infrastructure. Our analysis indicates that over 74% of solar development In India was built on landcover types that have natural ecosystem preservation, or agricultural value.

Global stressors and the global decline of amphibians: tipping the stress immunocompetency axis.

There is a widespread consensus that the earth is experiencing a mass extinction event and at the forefront are amphibians, the most threatened of all vertebrate taxa. A recent assessment found that nearly one-third (32%, 1,856 species) of the world's amphibian species are threatened. Amphibians have existed on the earth for over 300 million years, yet in just the last two decades there have been an alarming number of extinctions, nearly 168 species are believed to have gone extinct and at least 2,469 (43%) more have populations that are declining. Infectious diseases have been recognized as one major cause of worldwide amphibian population declines. This could be the result of the appearance of novel pathogens, or it could be that exposure to environmental stressors is increasing the susceptibility of amphibians to opportunistic pathogens. Here I review the potential effects of stressors on disease susceptibility in amphibians and relate this to disease emergence in human and other wildlife populations. I will present a series of case studies that illustrate the role of stress in disease outbreaks that have resulted in amphibian declines. First, I will examine how elevated sea-surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific since the mid-1970s have affected climate over much of the world and could be setting the stage for pathogen-mediated amphibian declines in many regions. Finally, I will discuss how the apparently rapid increase in the prevalence of amphibian limb deformities is linked to the synergistic effects of trematode infection and exposure to chemical contaminants.

Mammals, wildlife trade, and the next global pandemic.

Most new infectious diseases emerge when pathogens transfer from animals to humans.1,2 The suspected origin of the COVID pandemic in a wildlife wet market has resurfaced debates on the role of wildlife trade as a potential source of emerging zoonotic diseases.3-5 Yet there are no studies quantitatively assessing zoonotic disease risk associated with wildlife trade. Combining data on mammal species hosting zoonotic viruses and mammals known to be in current and future wildlife trade,6 we found that one-quarter (26.5%) of the mammals in wildlife trade harbor 75% of known zoonotic viruses, a level much higher than domesticated and non-traded mammals. The traded mammals also harbor distinct compositions of zoonotic viruses and different host reservoirs from non-traded and domesticated mammals. Furthermore, we highlight that primates, ungulates, carnivores, and bats represent significant zoonotic disease risks as they host 132 (58%) of 226 known zoonotic viruses in present wildlife trade, whereas species of bats, rodents, and marsupials represent significant zoonotic disease risks in future wildlife trade. Thus, the risk of carrying zoonotic diseases is not equal for all mammal species in wildlife trade. Overall, our findings strengthen the evidence that wildlife trade and zoonotic disease risks are strongly associated, and that mitigation measures should prioritize species with the highest risk of carrying zoonotic viruses. Curbing the sales of wildlife products and developing principles that support the sustainable and healthy trade of wildlife could be cost-effective investments given the potential risk and consequences of zoonotic outbreaks.

Policy development for biodiversity offsets: a review of offset frameworks.

Biodiversity offsets seek to compensate for residual environmental impacts of planned developments after appropriate steps have been taken to avoid, minimize or restore impacts on site. Offsets are emerging as an increasingly employed mechanism for achieving net environmental benefits, with offset policies being advanced in a wide range of countries (i.e., United States, Australia, Brazil, Colombia, and South Africa). To support policy development for biodiversity offsets, we review a set of major offset policy frameworks-US wetlands mitigation, US conservation banking, EU Natura 2000, Australian offset policies in New South Wales, Victoria, and Western Australia, and Brazilian industrial and forest offsets. We compare how the frameworks define offset policy goals, approach the mitigation process, and address six key issues for implementing offsets: (1) equivalence of project impacts with offset gains; (2) location of the offset relative to the impact site; (3) "additionality" (a new contribution to conservation) and acceptable types of offsets; (4) timing of project impacts versus offset benefits; (5) offset duration and compliance; and (6) "currency" and mitigation replacement ratios. We find substantial policy commonalities that may serve as a sound basis for future development of biodiversity offsets policy. We also identify issues requiring further policy guidance, including how best to: (1) ensure conformance with the mitigation hierarchy; (2) identify the most environmentally preferable offsets within a landscape context; and (3) determine appropriate mitigation replacement ratios.

Global no net loss of natural ecosystems.

A global goal of no net loss of natural ecosystems or better has recently been proposed, but such a goal would require equitable translation to country-level contributions. Given the wide variation in ecosystem depletion, these could vary from net gain (for countries where restoration is needed), to managed net loss (in rare circumstances where natural ecosystems remain extensive and human development imperative is greatest). National contributions and international support for implementation also must consider non-area targets (for example, for threatened species) and socioeconomic factors such as the capacity to conserve and the imperative for human development.

Local conditions and policy design determine whether ecological compensation can achieve No Net Loss goals.

Many nations use ecological compensation policies to address negative impacts of development projects and achieve No Net Loss (NNL) of biodiversity and ecosystem services. Yet, failures are widely reported. We use spatial simulation models to quantify potential net impacts of alternative compensation policies on biodiversity (indicated by native vegetation) and two ecosystem services (carbon storage, sediment retention) across four case studies (in Australia, Brazil, Indonesia, Mozambique). No policy achieves NNL of biodiversity in any case study. Two factors limit their potential success: the land available for compensation (existing vegetation to protect or cleared land to restore), and expected counterfactual biodiversity losses (unregulated vegetation clearing). Compensation also fails to slow regional biodiversity declines because policies regulate only a subset of sectors, and expanding policy scope requires more land than is available for compensation activities. Avoidance of impacts remains essential in achieving NNL goals, particularly once opportunities for compensation are exhausted.

Mapping global development potential for renewable energy, fossil fuels, mining and agriculture sectors.

Mapping suitable land for development is essential to land use planning efforts that aim to model, anticipate, and manage trade-offs between economic development and the environment. Previous land suitability assessments have generally focused on a few development sectors or lack consistent methodologies, thereby limiting our ability to plan for cumulative development pressures across geographic regions. Here, we generated 1-km spatially-explicit global land suitability maps, referred to as "development potential indices" (DPIs), for 13 sectors related to renewable energy (concentrated solar power, photovoltaic solar, wind, hydropower), fossil fuels (coal, conventional and unconventional oil and gas), mining (metallic, non-metallic), and agriculture (crop, biofuels expansion). To do so, we applied spatial multi-criteria decision analysis techniques that accounted for both resource potential and development feasibility. For each DPI, we examined both uncertainty and sensitivity, and spatially validated the map using locations of planned development. We illustrate how these DPIs can be used to elucidate potential individual sector expansion and cumulative development patterns.

Epidermal 'alarm substance' cells of fishes maintained by non-alarm functions: possible defence against pathogens, parasites and UVB radiation.

Many fishes possess specialized epidermal cells that are ruptured by the teeth of predators, thus reliably indicating the presence of an actively foraging predator. Understanding the evolution of these cells has intrigued evolutionary ecologists because the release of these alarm chemicals is not voluntary. Here, we show that predation pressure does not influence alarm cell production in fishes. Alarm cell production is stimulated by exposure to skin-penetrating pathogens (water moulds: Saprolegnia ferax and Saprolegnia parasitica), skin-penetrating parasites (larval trematodes: Teleorchis sp. and Uvulifer sp.) and correlated with exposure to UV radiation. Suppression of the immune system with environmentally relevant levels of Cd inhibits alarm cell production of fishes challenged with Saprolegnia. These data are the first evidence that alarm substance cells have an immune function against ubiquitous environmental challenges to epidermal integrity. Our results indicate that these specialized cells arose and are maintained by natural selection owing to selfish benefits unrelated to predator-prey interactions. Cell contents released when these cells are damaged in predator attacks have secondarily acquired an ecological role as alarm cues because selection favours receivers to detect and respond adaptively to public information about predation.

Searching for the physiological mechanism of density dependence: does corticosterone regulate tadpole responses to density?

Density-dependent population regulation is important in many natural populations, and in those populations, high population density is a likely stressor. In amphibians, previous laboratory studies with tadpoles suggest that corticosterone, the main glucocorticoid stress hormone, is one of the key regulators of density-dependent growth. To test this relationship in natural settings, we manipulated wood frog (Rana sylvatica) tadpole density at three levels in outdoor mesocosms and used a capture stress protocol to examine the hormonal stress response. In addition, we used the same capture protocol in six natural ponds (three high density and three low density). In the mesocosms, there was an increase in corticosterone levels in tadpoles following 1 h of confinement at weeks 1, 2, and 5. However, while tadpoles maintained at higher densities were smaller after metamorphosis, density did not alter mean levels of corticosterone obtained during confinement, and baseline levels of corticosterone did not differ between the densities. Similarly, in natural ponds, density did not correlate with baseline corticosterone or mean corticosterone levels obtained during confinement. We suggest that the physiological response to density may vary across the range of natural densities and that the role of corticosterone may be limited to periods of extreme high density, such as during pond-drying events.

Unconventional oil and gas spills: Materials, volumes, and risks to surface waters in four states of the U.S.

Extraction of oil and gas from unconventional sources, such as shale, has dramatically increased over the past ten years, raising the potential for spills or releases of chemicals, waste materials, and oil and gas. We analyzed spill data associated with unconventional wells from Colorado, New Mexico, North Dakota and Pennsylvania from 2005 to 2014, where we defined unconventional wells as horizontally drilled into an unconventional formation. We identified materials spilled by state and for each material we summarized frequency, volumes and spill rates. We evaluated the environmental risk of spills by calculating distance to the nearest stream and compared these distances to existing setback regulations. Finally, we summarized relative importance to drinking water in watersheds where spills occurred. Across all four states, we identified 21,300 unconventional wells and 6622 reported spills. The number of horizontal well bores increased sharply beginning in the late 2000s; spill rates also increased for all states except PA where the rate initially increased, reached a maximum in 2009 and then decreased. Wastewater, crude oil, drilling waste, and hydraulic fracturing fluid were the materials most often spilled; spilled volumes of these materials largely ranged from 100 to 10,000L. Across all states, the average distance of spills to a stream was highest in New Mexico (1379m), followed by Colorado (747m), North Dakota (598m) and then Pennsylvania (268m), and 7.0, 13.3, and 20.4% of spills occurred within existing surface water setback regulations of 30.5, 61.0, and 91.4m, respectively. Pennsylvania spills occurred in watersheds with a higher relative importance to drinking water than the other three states. Results from this study can inform risk assessments by providing improved input parameters on volume and rates of materials spilled, and guide regulations and the management policy of spills.

Bigger is better: Improved nature conservation and economic returns from landscape-level mitigation.

Impact mitigation is a primary mechanism on which countries rely to reduce environmental externalities and balance development with conservation. Mitigation policies are transitioning from traditional project-by-project planning to landscape-level planning. Although this larger-scale approach is expected to provide greater conservation benefits at the lowest cost, empirical justification is still scarce. Using commercial sugarcane expansion in the Brazilian Cerrado as a case study, we apply economic and biophysical steady-state models to quantify the benefits of the Brazilian Forest Code (FC) under landscape- and property-level planning. We find that FC compliance imposes small costs to business but can generate significant long-term benefits to nature: supporting 32 (±37) additional species (largely habitat specialists), storing 593,000 to 2,280,000 additional tons of carbon worth $69 million to $265 million ($ pertains to U.S. dollars), and marginally improving surface water quality. Relative to property-level compliance, we find that landscape-level compliance reduces total business costs by $19 million to $35 million per 6-year sugarcane growing cycle while often supporting more species and storing more carbon. Our results demonstrate that landscape-level mitigation provides cost-effective conservation and can be used to promote sustainable development.