Four ways blue foods can help achieve food system ambitions across nations.

Blue foods, sourced in aquatic environments, are important for the economies, livelihoods, nutritional security and cultures of people in many nations. They are often nutrient rich1, generate lower emissions and impacts on land and water than many terrestrial meats2, and contribute to the health3, wellbeing and livelihoods of many rural communities4. The Blue Food Assessment recently evaluated nutritional, environmental, economic and justice dimensions of blue foods globally. Here we integrate these findings and translate them into four policy objectives to help realize the contributions that blue foods can make to national food systems around the world: ensuring supplies of critical nutrients, providing healthy alternatives to terrestrial meat, reducing dietary environmental footprints and safeguarding blue food contributions to nutrition, just economies and livelihoods under a changing climate. To account for how context-specific environmental, socio-economic and cultural aspects affect this contribution, we assess the relevance of each policy objective for individual countries, and examine associated co-benefits and trade-offs at national and international scales. We find that in many African and South American nations, facilitating consumption of culturally relevant blue food, especially among nutritionally vulnerable population segments, could address vitamin B12 and omega-3 deficiencies. Meanwhile, in many global North nations, cardiovascular disease rates and large greenhouse gas footprints from ruminant meat intake could be lowered through moderate consumption of seafood with low environmental impact. The analytical framework we provide also identifies countries with high future risk, for whom climate adaptation of blue food systems will be particularly important. Overall the framework helps decision makers to assess the blue food policy objectives most relevant to their geographies, and to compare and contrast the benefits and trade-offs associated with pursuing these objectives.

Deworming and micronutrient status by community open defecation prevalence: An observational study using nationally representative data from India, 2016-2018.

BACKGROUND: Micronutrient deficiencies are widespread in India. Soil-transmitted helminth (STH) infections are acquired by interaction with soil and water contaminated by human feces and lead to blood loss and poor micronutrient absorption. The current recommendation for control of STH-related morbidity is targeted deworming, yet little is known about the effectiveness of deworming on micronutrient status in varying sanitation contexts. Ranging between 1% and 40% prevalence across Indian states, open defecation (OD) remains high despite India's investments at elimination by promoting community-wide sanitation. This variation provides an opportunity to study the relationship between deworming, micronutrient status, and OD at-scale. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Cross-sectional datasets that were representative for India were obtained the Comprehensive National Nutrition Survey in 2016 to 2018 (n = 105,060 individuals aged 1 to 19 years). Consumption of deworming medication was described by age and community OD level. Logistic regression models were used to examine the relationship between deworming, cluster OD, and their interactions, with anemia and micronutrient deficiencies (iron, zinc, vitamin A, folate, and vitamin B12), controlling for age, sex, wealth, diet, and seasonality. These regression models further allowed us to identify a minimum OD rate after which deworming becomes ineffective. In sensitivity analyses, the association between deworming and deficiencies were tested in subsamples of communities classified into 3 OD levels based on statistical tertiles: OD free (0% of households in the community practicing OD), moderate OD (>0% and <30%), or high OD (at least 30%). Average deworming coverage and OD prevalence in the sample were 43.4% [IQR 26.0, 59.0] and 19.1% [IQR 0, 28.5], respectively. Controlling for other determinants of nutritional status, adolescents living in communities with higher OD levels had lower coverage of deworming and higher prevalence of anemia, zinc, vitamin A, and B12 deficiencies. Compared to those who were not dewormed, dewormed children and adolescents had lower odds of anemia (adjusted odds ratio 0.72, (95% CI [0.67, 0.78], p < 0.001) and deficiencies of iron 0.78, (95% CI [0.74, 0.82], p < 0.001) and folate 0.69, (95% CI [0.64,0.74], p<0.001)) in OD free communities. These protective effects remained significant for anemia but diminished for other micronutrient deficiencies in communities with moderate or high OD. Analysis of community OD indicated a threshold range of 30% to 60%, above which targeted deworming was no longer significantly associated with lower anemia, iron, and folate deficiency. The primary limitations of the study included potential for omitted variables bias and inability to capture longitudinal effects. CONCLUSIONS: Moderate to high rates of OD significantly modify the association between deworming and micronutrient status in India. Public health policy could involve sequencing interventions, with focus on improving deworming coverage in communities that have achieved minimum thresholds of OD and re- triggering sanitation interventions in high OD communities prior to deworming days, ensuring high coverage for both. The efficacy of micronutrient supplementation as a complementary strategy to improve nutritional outcomes alongside deworming and OD elimination in this age group needs further study.

Farm size limits agriculture's poverty reduction potential in Eastern India even with irrigation-led intensification.

CONTEXT: Millions of people living in the Eastern Gangetic Plains (EGP) of India engage in agriculture to support their livelihoods yet are income poor, and food and climate insecure. To address these challenges, policymakers and development programs invest in irrigation-led agricultural intensification. However, the evidence for agricultural intensification to lift farmers' incomes above the poverty line remains largely anecdotal. OBJECTIVE: The main objective of this study is to use a large household survey (n = 15,572; rice: 8244, wheat: 7328; 2017/18) to assess the link between agricultural intensification and personal daily incomes from farming (FPDI) in the rice-wheat systems of the EGP - the dominant cropping system of the region. METHODS: We use the Intensification Benefit Index (IBI), a measure that relates farm size and household size to FPDI, to assess how daily incomes from rice-wheat production change with irrigation-led intensification across the EGP. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS: Relative to the international poverty line of 1.90 Purchasing Power Parity (PPP)$ day-1 and accounting for variations in HH size in the analysis, we found that small farm sizes limit the potential for agricultural intensification from irrigation to transform the poverty status of households in the bottom three quartiles of the IBI. The estimated median FPDI of households with intensified systems in the bottom three quartiles is only 0.51 PPP$ day-1 (a 0.15 PPP$ gain). The median FPDI increases to 2.10 PPP$ day-1 for households in the upper quartile of the IBI distribution (a 0.30 PPP$ gain). Irrigation-led agricultural intensification of rice-wheat systems in the EGP may provide substantial benefits for resilience to climatic change and food security but achieving meaningful poverty reduction will require complementary investments. SIGNIFICANCE: Transforming the poverty status of most smallholder farmers in the EGP requires diversified portfolios of rural on- and off-farm income-generating opportunities. While bolstering food- and climate security, agronomic intervention programs should consider smallholders' limited monetary incentives to invest in intensification. Irrigation-led agricultural intensification programs and policies should explicitly account for the heterogeneity in household resources, irrigation levels, and degree of dependence on agricultural income.

A comparison of the Indian diet with the EAT-Lancet reference diet.

BACKGROUND: The 2019 EAT-Lancet Commission report recommends healthy diets that can feed 10 billion people by 2050 from environmentally sustainable food systems. This study compares food consumption patterns in India, from different income groups, regions and sectors (rural/urban), with the EAT-Lancet reference diet and highlights the deviations. METHODS: The analysis was done using data from the Consumption Expenditure Survey (CES) of a nationally representative sample of 0.102 million households from 7469 villages and 5268 urban blocks of India conducted by the National Sample Survey Organization (NSSO) in 2011-12. This is the most recent nationally representative data on household consumption in India. Calorie consumption (kcal/capita/day) of each food group was calculated using the quantity of consumption from the data and nutritional values of food items provided by NSSO. Diets for rural and urban, poor and rich households across different regions were compared with EAT-Lancet reference diet. RESULTS: The average daily calorie consumption in India is below the recommended 2503 kcal/capita/day across all groups compared, except for the richest 5% of the population. Calorie share of whole grains is significantly higher than the EAT-Lancet recommendations while those of fruits, vegetables, legumes, meat, fish and eggs are significantly lower. The share of calories from protein sources is only 6-8% in India compared to 29% in the reference diet. The imbalance is highest for the households in the lowest decile of consumption expenditure, but even the richest households in India do not consume adequate amounts of fruits, vegetables and non-cereal proteins in their diets. An average Indian household consumes more calories from processed foods than fruits. CONCLUSIONS: Indian diets, across states and income groups, are unhealthy. Indians also consume excess amounts of cereals and not enough proteins, fruits, and vegetables. Importantly, unlike many countries, excess consumption of animal protein is not a problem in India. Indian policymakers need to accelerate food-system-wide efforts to make healthier and sustainable diets more affordable, accessible and acceptable.

Impact of subsidized fortified wheat on anaemia in pregnant Indian women.

The World Health Assembly called for a 50% global anaemia reduction in women of reproductive age (15-49 years of age) from 2012 to 2025. India accounts for the most cases of anaemia in the world, and half of all pregnant Indian women are anaemic. In India, the government implemented a 4-year food-based safety net programme from 2008 to 2012 involving the provision of fortified wheat flour through its public distribution system. We assessed programme impact on anaemia among pregnant women (n = 10,186) using data from the 2002-2004 and 2012-2013 Indian District Level Health Surveys. The difference-in-differences method was used to estimate the impact on haemoglobin (Hb) and anaemia in pregnant women living in northern India (Punjab) and southern India (Tamil Nadu), with pregnant women in neighbouring states without wheat fortification programmes serving as controls. In northern India, we found no impact on Hb (ß = -0.184, P = 0.793) or anaemia reduction (ß = -0.01, P = 0.859), as expected, given that the intervention targeted only nonpoor households and demand for fortified wheat was low. In southern India, where intervention coverage was high, we found no impact on Hb (ß = -0.001, P = 0.998) but did see an impact on anaemia reduction (ß = -0.08, P = 0.042), which was unexpected given low consumption of wheat in this predominantly rice-eating region. India's wheat fortification programmes were largely ineffective in terms of reducing anaemia among pregnant women. As policymakers expand fortification programs, it is critical to ensure that the fortified food is universally available and distributed widely through well-functioning and popular outlets.

Effects of a large-scale alcohol ban on population-level alcohol intake, weight, blood pressure, blood glucose, and domestic violence in India: a quasi-experimental population-based study.

Background: Globally, alcohol consumption is a leading risk factor for deaths and disability and a causal factor in over 200 diseases, injuries, and health conditions. In April 2016, the manufacture, transport, sale, and consumption of alcohol was banned in Bihar, a populous Indian state. We sought to estimate the impacts of this ban on health outcomes and domestic violence. Methods: Data from the Indian National Family Health Surveys (2005-06, 2015-16, 2019-21), Annual Health Survey (2013), and District Level Household Survey (2012), were used to conduct difference-in-differences (DID) analysis, comparing Bihar (n = 10,733 men, n = 88,188 women) and neighbouring states (n = 38,674 men, n = 284,820 women) before and after the ban. Outcomes included frequent (daily or weekly) alcohol consumption, underweight, obesity, hypertension, diabetes, and intimate partner violence. A triple difference model adding male-female interaction to the DID model was also estimated. Attributable averted cases were calculated to estimate the impact of the ban. Findings: Across all models, the ban led to reduced frequent alcohol consumption (DID: -7.1 percentage points (pp) (95% CI -9.6pp, -4.6pp), lower overweight/obesity (-5.6pp (-8.9, -2.2) among males, and reduced experiences of emotional (-4.8pp (-8.2pp, -1.4pp) and sexual (-5.5pp (-8.7pp, -2.3pp) violence among females. The ban prevented approximately 2.4 million cases of daily/weekly alcohol consumption and 1.8 million cases of overweight/obesity among males, and 2.1 million cases of intimate partner violence among females. Interpretation: Strict alcohol regulation policies may yield significant population level health benefits for frequent drinkers and many victims of intimate partner violence. Funding: No funding was received for this work.

Risks from solar-powered groundwater irrigation.

Emissions reductions may not meet expectations, and groundwater use will likely increase.

Agricultural diversification and intra-household dietary diversity: Panel data analysis of farm households in Bangladesh.

This paper investigates the associations between agricultural diversification and dietary diversity among men, women and children of farm households in Bangladesh. Using three waves of nationally representative Bangladesh Integrated Household Survey (BIHS- 2011-12, 2015 and 2018) data and a panel data model, the study found that agricultural production diversification can emphasize the dietary diversification across the life cycle of farm household members. The balanced panel data reveals that agricultural production diversification has a statistically significant and positive impact on dietary diversity of individual members (men, women and children) of farm households. Moreover, other important factors that impact on agricultural diversification and improve dietary diversity like women's education and employment, commercialization of farm households, access to non-farm income sources, and access to information facilities also have a strong association in improving dietary status, food and nutritional security as well. Although there is currently limited diversity in the diets of adult men, women and children of rural farm households, the situation can be improved over time with proper and consistent support. The findings suggest policy interventions should target not only agricultural diversification but also improve women's education and on and off farm employment opportunities and facilitate better access to information for rural households. These recommendations can support improved dietary diversity for all household members under different settings.

Food systems and rural wellbeing: challenges and opportunities.

The future wellbeing of billions of rural people is interconnected with transforming food systems for equity, nutrition, environmental sustainability, and resilience. This article tackles three blind spots in the understanding of rural poverty and vulnerability: the narrow focus on extreme poverty and hunger that hides a much wider set of inequalities and vulnerabilities, insufficient recognition of the diversity of rural households, and an inadequate appreciation of the impact of rapid structural changes in markets, the physical environment, and the political economic context. A better understanding of these areas is necessary for imagining a new policy landscape that can align progress on rural poverty alleviation with a wider transformation of food systems. The article provides a framework for assessing the dynamics of rural wellbeing and food systems change. It looks at the viability of small-scale farming and the diversification of livelihood options needed to overcome rural poverty and inequality. The analysis suggests that the future prosperity of rural areas will depend on policy reforms to address market failures in the food system, which currently work against equity, good nutrition and sustainability. Investments will also be needed to enable rural economies to capture greater value from the food system, particularly in the midstream of food distribution, processing and services. The likely future scale and nature of rural poverty and inequality is such that improved social protection and humanitarian relief schemes that support those in crisis or being left behind will still be essential.

Time management governs climate resilience and productivity in the coupled rice-wheat cropping systems of eastern India.

India will need to produce 30% more wheat by 2050, and these gains must principally come from intensification in eastern India where low productivity is common. Through a dense network of on-farm surveys for the rice-wheat system in this region, we show that contemporary wheat sowing dates have a central influence on achieved and attainable yields, superseding all other crop management, soil and varietal factors. We estimate that untapped wheat production potential will increase by 69% with achievable adjustments to wheat sowing dates without incurring undesirable trade-offs with rice productivity, irrigation requirements or profitability. Our findings also indicate that transformative gains in wheat yields are only possible in eastern India if rice and wheat are managed as a coupled system. Steps taken to 'keep time' through better management of the annual cropping calendar will pay dividends for food security, profitability and climate resilience now and as a foundation for adaptation to progressive climate change.

Development of balanced nutrient management innovations in South Asia: Perspectives from Bangladesh, India, Nepal, and Sri Lanka.

Imbalanced application of fertilizers is a major fiscal and environmental problem in South Asia. We review fertilizer policies and extension efforts to promote the balanced application of nutrients in Bangladesh, India, Nepal, and Sri Lanka and draw 4 important lessons. (1) Fertilizer sector reforms need to be fiscally sustainable and politically feasible. Governments in South Asia have abolished fertilizer subsidies on multiple occasions, only to restore them a few years later. (2) The use of phosphate and potash did not decline much even after a sharp increase in their prices in India in 2011-12. Therefore, rationalizing subsidies, while necessary, may not be sufficient to ensure balanced use of fertilizers. Changing farmers' practice requires combining the right incentives with the right information. (3) Soil test based soil health cards (SHC) hold promise, but there is limited evidence on their utility. India's SHC program had very little impact on fertilizer use. (4) Direct cash transfer (DCT) of fertilizer subsidies can reduce distortions, but Sri Lanka's experience shows that implementing it is more challenging than universal subsidies. DCT requires the removal of price controls, integration of land records, farmer identity cards, a cash transfer system with universal coverage, and a competitive fertilizer retail sector.

Blue food demand across geographic and temporal scales.

Numerous studies have focused on the need to expand production of 'blue foods', defined as aquatic foods captured or cultivated in marine and freshwater systems, to meet rising population- and income-driven demand. Here we analyze the roles of economic, demographic, and geographic factors and preferences in shaping blue food demand, using secondary data from FAO and The World Bank, parameters from published models, and case studies at national to sub-national scales. Our results show a weak cross-sectional relationship between per capita income and consumption globally when using an aggregate fish metric. Disaggregation by fish species group reveals distinct geographic patterns; for example, high consumption of freshwater fish in China and pelagic fish in Ghana and Peru where these fish are widely available, affordable, and traditionally eaten. We project a near doubling of global fish demand by mid-century assuming continued growth in aquaculture production and constant real prices for fish. Our study concludes that nutritional and environmental consequences of rising demand will depend on substitution among fish groups and other animal source foods in national diets.

Designing better input support programs: Lessons from zinc subsidies in Andhra Pradesh, India.

India has one of the largest agricultural input support programs in the world, delivered in the form of subsidies to farmers, raising concerns about its sustainability. This paper evaluates the performance of one such support, the micronutrient subsidy program in the state of Andhra Pradesh (AP) and presents a case for providing this support in the form of direct cash transfers. Under the program, key soil micronutrients- zinc, boron, and gypsum were distributed free of cost to farmers living in micronutrient-deficient areas, with identification and targeting managed entirely by the state. We survey 1621 farmers, 61 agriculture extension officers, and 78 agriculture input dealers to assess the efficacy of the program and to identify bottlenecks preventing effective targeting, with a focus on zinc. We find that use of non-subsidized zinc is high in AP, and awareness of benefits of zinc and physical access to input dealer shops are significant predictors of zinc use. We argue that the free provision of micronutrients may have created demand among farmers, but there is little justification to continue subsidizing such a program at such high rates or resorting to public distribution. We find that micronutrient procurement and distribution has become a burden on extension staff and crowds out the private sector. Our analysis shows that the subsidy can benefit more farmers if it is channeled through the network of private fertilizer dealers. We use administrative data on budgetary outlays and digital soil maps to suggest fiscal redistribution in the form of direct cash transfers that may ensure more effective targeting at a lower cost to the state.

Risk of acute respiratory infection from crop burning in India: estimating disease burden and economic welfare from satellite and national health survey data for 250 000 persons.

BACKGROUND: Respiratory infections are among the leading causes of death and disability globally. Respirable aerosol particles released by agricultural crop-residue burning (ACRB), practised by farmers in all global regions, are potentially harmful to human health. Our objective was to estimate the health and economic costs of ACRB in northern India. METHODS: The primary outcome was acute respiratory infection (ARI) from India's fourth District Level Health Survey (DLHS-4). DLHS-4 data were merged with Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer satellite data on fire occurrence. Mutually adjusted generalized linear models were used to generate risk ratios for risk factors of ARI. Overall disease burden due to ACRB was estimated in terms of disability-adjusted life years. RESULTS: Seeking medical treatment for ARI in the previous 2 weeks was reported by 5050 (2%) of 252 539 persons. Living in a district with intense ACRB-the top quintile of fires per day-was associated with a 3-fold higher risk of ARI (mutually adjusted risk ratio 2.99, 95% confidence interval 2.77 to 3.23) after adjustment for socio-demographic and household factors. Children under 5 years of age were particularly susceptible (3.65, 3.06 to 4.34 in this subgroup). Additional ARI risk factors included motor-vehicle congestion (1.96, 1.72 to 2.23), open drainage (1.91, 1.73 to 2.11), cooking with biomass (1.73, 1.58 to 1.90) and living in urban areas (1.35, 1.26 to 1.44). Eliminating ACRB would avert 14.9 million disability-adjusted life years lost per year, valued at US$152.9 billion over 5 years. CONCLUSIONS: Investments to stop crop burning and offer farmers alternative crop-residue disposal solutions are likely to improve population-level respiratory health and yield major economic returns.