Stroke and bleeding risk in atrial fibrillation with CHA2DS2-VASC risk score of one: the Norwegian AFNOR study.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: The benefit of oral anticoagulant (OAC) therapy in atrial fibrillation (AF) and intermediate stroke risk is debated. In a nationwide Norwegian cohort with a non-sex CHA2DS2-VASc risk score of one, this study aimed to investigate (i) stroke and bleeding risk in AF patients with and without OAC treatment, and (ii) the risk of stroke in non-anticoagulated individuals with and without AF. METHODS: A total of 1 118 762 individuals including 34 460 AF patients were followed during 2011-18 until ischaemic stroke, intracranial haemorrhage, increased CHA2DS2-VASc score, or study end. One-year incidence rates (IRs) were calculated as events per 100 person-years (%/py). Cox regression models provided adjusted hazard ratios (aHRs [95% confidence intervals]). RESULTS: Among AF patients, the ischaemic stroke IR was 0.51%/py in OAC users and 1.05%/py in non-users (aHR 0.47 [0.37-0.59]). Intracranial haemorrhage IR was 0.28%/py in OAC users and 0.19%/py in non-users (aHR 1.23 [0.88-1.72]). Oral anticoagulant use was associated with an increased risk of major bleeding (aHR 1.37 [1.16-1.63]) but lower risk of the combined outcome of ischaemic stroke, major bleeding, and mortality (aHR 0.57 [0.51-0.63]). Non-anticoagulated individuals with AF had higher risk of ischaemic stroke compared to non-AF individuals with the same risk profile (aHR 2.47 [2.17-2.81]). CONCLUSIONS: In AF patients at intermediate risk of stroke, OAC use was associated with overall favourable clinical outcomes. Non-anticoagulated AF patients had higher risk of ischaemic stroke compared to the general population without AF with the same risk profile.

Oral anticoagulants in patients with atrial fibrillation at low stroke risk: a multicentre observational study.

AIMS: There is currently no consensus on whether atrial fibrillation (AF) patients at low risk for stroke (one non-sex-related CHA2DS2-VASc point) should be treated with an oral anticoagulant. METHODS AND RESULTS: We conducted a multi-country cohort study in Sweden, Denmark, Norway, and Scotland. In total, 59 076 patients diagnosed with AF at low stroke risk were included. We assessed the rates of stroke or major bleeding during treatment with a non-vitamin K antagonist oral anticoagulant (NOAC), a vitamin K antagonist (VKA), or no treatment, using inverse probability of treatment weighted (IPTW) Cox regression. In untreated patients, the rate for ischaemic stroke was 0.70 per 100 person-years and the rate for a bleed was also 0.70 per 100 person-years. Comparing NOAC with no treatment, the stroke rate was lower [hazard ratio (HR) 0.72; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.56-0.94], and the rate for intracranial haemorrhage (ICH) was not increased (HR 0.84; 95% CI 0.54-1.30). Comparing VKA with no treatment, the rate for stroke tended to be lower (HR 0.81; 95% CI 0.59-1.09), and the rate for ICH tended to be higher during VKA treatment (HR 1.37; 95% CI 0.88-2.14). Comparing NOAC with VKA treatment, the rate for stroke was similar (HR 0.92; 95% CI 0.70-1.22), but the rate for ICH was lower during NOAC treatment (HR 0.63; 95% CI 0.42-0.94). CONCLUSION: These observational data suggest that NOAC treatment may be associated with a positive net clinical benefit compared with no treatment or VKA treatment in patients at low stroke risk, a question that can be tested through a randomized controlled trial.

Persistence and adherence to non-vitamin K antagonist oral anticoagulant treatment in patients with atrial fibrillation across five Western European countries.

AIMS: To assess persistence and adherence to non-vitamin K antagonist oral anticoagulant (NOAC) treatment in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) in five Western European healthcare settings. METHODS AND RESULTS: We conducted a multi-country observational cohort study, including 559 445 AF patients initiating NOAC therapy from Stockholm (Sweden), Denmark, Scotland, Norway, and Germany between 2011 and 2018. Patients were followed from their first prescription until they switched to a vitamin K antagonist, emigrated, died, or the end of follow-up. We measured persistence and adherence over time and defined adequate adherence as medication possession rate ≥90% among persistent patients only. RESULTS: Overall, persistence declined to 82% after 1 year and to 63% after 5 years. When including restarters of NOAC treatment, 85% of the patients were treated with NOACs after 5 years. The proportion of patients with adequate adherence remained above 80% throughout follow-up. Persistence and adherence were similar between countries and was higher in patients starting treatment in later years. Both first year persistence and adherence were lower with dabigatran (persistence: 77%, adherence: 65%) compared with apixaban (86% and 75%) and rivaroxaban (83% and 75%) and were statistically lower after adjusting for patient characteristics. Adherence and persistence with dabigatran remained lower throughout follow-up. CONCLUSION: Persistence and adherence were high among NOAC users in five Western European healthcare settings and increased in later years. Dabigatran use was associated with slightly lower persistence and adherence compared with apixaban and rivaroxaban.

Using the waiting time distribution with random index dates to estimate prescription durations in the presence of seasonal stockpiling.

PURPOSE: A pervasive problem in registry-based pharmacoepidemiological studies is what exposure duration to assign to individual prescriptions. The parametric waiting time distribution (WTD) has been proposed as a method to estimate such durations. However, when prescription durations vary due to seasonal stockpiling, WTD estimates will vary with choice of index date. To counter this, we propose using random index dates. METHODS: Within a calendar period of a given length, δ, we randomly sample individual index dates. We include the last prescription redemption prior to the index date in the analysis. Only redemptions within distance δ of the index date are included. In a simulation study with varying types and degrees of stockpiling at the end of the year, we investigated bias and precision of the reverse WTD with fixed and random index dates, respectively. In addition, we applied the new method to estimate durations of Norwegian warfarin prescriptions in 2014. RESULTS: In simulation settings with stockpiling, the reverse WTD with random index dates had low relative biases (-0.65% to 6.64%) and high coverage probabilities (92.0% to 95.3%), although when stockpiling was pronounced, coverage probabilities decreased (2.7% to 85.8%). Using a fixed index date was inferior. The estimated duration of warfarin prescriptions in Norway using random index dates was 131 (130; 132) days. CONCLUSIONS: In the presence of seasonal stockpiling, the WTD with random index dates provides estimates of prescription durations, which are more stable, less biased and with better coverage when compared to using a fixed index date.

Risk factors for stroke and choice of oral anticoagulant in atrial fibrillation.

PURPOSE: To investigate risk factors for stroke in patients initiating oral anticoagulants for atrial fibrillation in Norway and their association with receiving DOACs versus warfarin. METHODS: From nationwide registries, we identified naïve users initiating treatment with warfarin, dabigatran, rivaroxaban, or apixaban for atrial fibrillation from 2010 to 2015 in Norway. We studied temporal changes in the CHA2DS2-VASc score and its component risk factors. We used multiple logistic regressions to identify CHA2DS2-VASc risk factors associated with receiving DOACs versus warfarin in 2015. RESULTS: From 2010 to 2015, the yearly number of new oral anticoagulant users increased from 7588 to 13,344. All new users initiated warfarin in 2010, while 86% initiated a DOAC in 2015. The mean CHA2DS2-VASc score decreased from 3.2 (SD 1.7) to 3.1 (SD 1.6) in the same period. Vascular disease (0.56 [0.49-0.63]), congestive heart failure (OR 0.65 [95% CI 0.58-0.72]), and diabetes (0.83 [0.73-0.95]) decreased the odds of receiving DOACs instead of warfarin, and ischemic stroke/transient ischemic attack/arterial thromboembolism (1.31 [1.12-1.54]), age 65-74 (1.23 [1.06-1.43]), and female sex (1.22 [1.10-1.36]) increased it. Age ≥ 75 (reference age < 65) and hypertension had no impact. CONCLUSIONS: The uptake of DOACs was rapid and spurred an increase in new users of oral anticoagulants for atrial fibrillation from 2010 to 2015 in Norway. The mean CHA2DS2-VASc score did not change substantially during this period. Vascular disease, heart failure, and diabetes were associated with initiation of warfarin, and previous stroke, age 65-74 and female sex with initiation of DOACs.

Trends in use of warfarin and direct oral anticoagulants in atrial fibrillation in Norway, 2010 to 2015.

PURPOSE: Since 2011, several direct oral anticoagulants (DOACs; dabigatran, rivaroxaban, apixaban) have been introduced as alternatives to warfarin for stroke prophylaxis in atrial fibrillation. We wanted to investigate changes in utilization of oral anticoagulants for atrial fibrillation in Norway following the introduction of DOACs. METHODS: Using nationwide registries, we identified all adults with pharmacy dispensings for warfarin or DOACs between January 2010 and December 2015 in Norway, and used ambulatory reimbursement codes to identify atrial fibrillation as indication. We defined incident use by a 1-year washout period. We describe trends in prevalent and incident use of warfarin and DOACs between 2010 and 2015, as well as patterns of treatment switching for incident users. RESULTS: One hundred twenty-nine thousand two hundred eighty-five patients filled at least one prescription for an oral anticoagulant for atrial fibrillation; the yearly number of incident users increased from 262 to 421 per 100,000 person-years; and the yearly share of incident users who initiated a DOAC increased to 82%. Half the prevalent users were on a DOAC by 2015. Within a year of drug initiation, 6, 12, 16 and 20% of incident users of apixaban, rivaroxaban, warfarin and dabigatran, respectively, switched oral anticoagulant. CONCLUSIONS: Use of DOACs for anticoagulation in atrial fibrillation became more prevalent between 2010 and 2015 in Norway, at the expense of warfarin.

Prevalence and treatment of gestational diabetes in Norway 2010-2020.

AIMS: Estimate prevalence of gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) and its treatment in Norway 2010-2020 and explore impact of new national GDM guidelines in 2017. METHODS: We identified women giving birth in a nationwide cohort study using registers on births, prescriptions, education, primary and specialist care. For each year, we estimated prevalence of GDM overall, by BMI, age, education, and mother's birthplace; proportions of GDM pregnancies receiving pharmacological treatment; and distribution of the gestational week when GDM was diagnosed. RESULTS: In 633,169 pregnancies, prevalence of GDM increased from 2.6 % in 2010 to 6.0 % in 2016, then stabilized. Similar patterns were seen across strata of BMI, age, education, and maternal birthplace, although prevalence was higher with higher BMI, higher age, lower education, and mothers born in Asia, Africa, or Middle East. The proportion of the GDM population pharmacologically treated increased from 11.6 % in 2010 to 13.6 % in 2016 and 31.6 % in 2020. GDM was diagnosed in recommended gestational week 24-28 in 19 % versus 45 % of GDM pregnancies in 2010 and 2020, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Both the proportion diagnosed with GDM within recommended time of screening, and who received pharmacological treatment, increased substantially following new guidelines in 2017. Prevalence of GDM increased from 2010 to 2016, then plateaued.

Safety of GLP-1 Receptor Agonists and Other Second-Line Antidiabetics in Early Pregnancy.

Importance: Increasing use of second-line noninsulin antidiabetic medication (ADM) in pregnant individuals with type 2 diabetes (T2D) may result in fetal exposure, but their teratogenic risk is unknown. Objective: To evaluate periconceptional use of second-line noninsulin ADMs and whether it is associated with increased risk of major congenital malformations (MCMs) in the infant. Design, Setting, and Participants: This observational population-based cohort study used data from 4 Nordic countries (2009-2020), the US MarketScan Database (2012-2021), and the Israeli Maccabi Health Services database (2009-2020). Pregnant women with T2D were identified and their live-born infants were followed until up to 1 year after birth. Exposure: Periconceptional exposure was defined as 1 or more prescription fill of sulfonylureas, dipeptidyl peptidase 4 (DPP-4) inhibitors, glucagon-like peptide 1 (GLP-1) receptor agonists, and sodium-glucose cotransporter 2 (SGLT2) inhibitors, or insulin (active comparator) from 90 days before pregnancy to end of first trimester. Main Outcomes and Measures: Relative risks (RRs) and 95% CIs for MCMs were estimated using log-binomial regression models, adjusting for key confounders in each cohort and meta-analyzed. Results: Periconceptional exposure to second-line noninsulin ADMs differed between countries (32, 295, and 73 per 100 000 pregnancies in the Nordics, US, and Israel, respectively), and increased over the study period, especially in the US. The standardized prevalence of MCMs was 3.7% in all infants (n = 3 514 865), 5.3% in the infants born to women with T2D (n = 51 826), and among infants exposed to sulfonylureas was 9.7% (n = 1362); DPP-4 inhibitors, 6.1% (n = 687); GLP-1 receptor agonists, 8.3% (n = 938); SGLT2 inhibitors, 7.0% (n = 335); and insulin, 7.8% (n = 5078). Compared with insulin, adjusted RRs for MCMs were 1.18 (95% CI, 0.94-1.48), 0.83 (95% CI, 0.64-1.06), 0.95 (95% CI, 0.72-1.26), and 0.98 (95% CI, 0.65-1.46) for infants exposed to sulfonylureas, DPP-4 inhibitors, GLP-1 receptor agonists, and SGLT2 inhibitors, respectively. Conclusions and Relevance: Use of second-line noninsulin ADMs is rapidly increasing for treatment of T2D and other indications, resulting in an increasing number of exposed pregnancies. Although some estimates were imprecise, results did not indicate a large increased risk of MCMs above the risk conferred by maternal T2D requiring second-line treatment. Although reassuring, confirmation from other studies is needed, and continuous monitoring will provide more precise estimates as data accumulate.

Comparative Risk of Major Congenital Malformations With Antiseizure Medication Combinations vs Valproate Monotherapy in Pregnancy.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Valproate should be avoided in pregnancy, but it is the most effective drug for generalized epilepsies. Alternative treatment may require combinations of other drugs. Our objectives were to describe first trimester use of antiseizure medication (ASM) combinations that are relevant alternatives to valproate and determine whether specific combinations were associated with a lower risk of major congenital malformations (MCM) compared with valproate monotherapy. METHODS: We conducted a population-based cohort study using linked national registers from Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway, and Sweden and administrative health care data from the United States and New South Wales, Australia. We described first trimester use of ASM combinations among pregnant people with epilepsy from 2000 to 2020. We compared the risk of MCM after first trimester exposure to ASM combinations vs valproate monotherapy and low-dose valproate plus lamotrigine or levetiracetam vs high-dose valproate (≥1,000 mg/d). We used log-binomial regression with propensity score weights to calculate adjusted risk ratios (aRRs) and 95% CIs for each dataset. Results were pooled using fixed-effects meta-analysis. RESULTS: Among 50,905 pregnancies in people with epilepsy identified from 7.8 million total pregnancies, 788 used lamotrigine and levetiracetam, 291 used lamotrigine and topiramate, 208 used levetiracetam and topiramate, 80 used lamotrigine and zonisamide, and 91 used levetiracetam and zonisamide. After excluding pregnancies with use of other ASMs, known teratogens, or a child diagnosed with MCM of infectious or genetic cause, we compared 587 exposed to lamotrigine-levetiracetam duotherapy and 186 exposed to lamotrigine-topiramate duotherapy with 1959 exposed to valproate monotherapy. Pooled aRRs were 0.41 (95% CI 0.24-0.69) and 1.26 (0.71-2.23), respectively. Duotherapy combinations containing low-dose valproate were infrequent, and comparisons with high-dose valproate monotherapy were inconclusive but suggested a lower risk for combination therapy. Other combinations were too rare for comparative safety analyses. DISCUSSION: Lamotrigine-levetiracetam duotherapy in first trimester was associated with a 60% lower risk of MCM than valproate monotherapy, while lamotrigine-topiramate was not associated with a reduced risk. Duotherapy with lamotrigine and levetiracetam may be favored to treat epilepsy in people with childbearing potential compared with valproate regarding MCM, but whether this combination is as effective as valproate remains to be determined. CLASSIFICATION OF EVIDENCE: This study provides Class II evidence that in people with epilepsy treated in the first trimester of pregnancy, the risk of major congenital malformations is lower with lamotrigine-levetiracetam duotherapy than with valproate alone, but similar with lamotrigine-topiramate.

Maternal diabetes and risk of attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder in offspring in a multinational cohort of 3.6 million mother-child pairs.

Previous studies report an association between maternal diabetes mellitus (MDM) and attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD), often overlooking unmeasured confounders such as shared genetics and environmental factors. We therefore conducted a multinational cohort study with linked mother-child pairs data in Hong Kong, New Zealand, Taiwan, Finland, Iceland, Norway and Sweden to evaluate associations between different MDM (any MDM, gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) and pregestational diabetes mellitus (PGDM)) and ADHD using Cox proportional hazards regression. We included over 3.6 million mother-child pairs between 2001 and 2014 with follow-up until 2020. Children who were born to mothers with any type of diabetes during pregnancy had a higher risk of ADHD than unexposed children (pooled hazard ratio (HR) = 1.16, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.08-1.24). Higher risks of ADHD were also observed for both GDM (pooled HR = 1.10, 95% CI = 1.04-1.17) and PGDM (pooled HR = 1.39, 95% CI = 1.25-1.55). However, siblings with discordant exposure to GDM in pregnancy had similar risks of ADHD (pooled HR = 1.05, 95% CI = 0.94-1.17), suggesting potential confounding by unmeasured, shared familial factors. Our findings indicate that there is a small-to-moderate association between MDM and ADHD, whereas the association between GDM and ADHD is unlikely to be causal. This finding contrast with previous studies, which reported substantially higher risk estimates, and underscores the need to reevaluate the precise roles of hyperglycemia and genetic factors in the relationship between MDM and ADHD.

Metformin Versus Insulin and Risk of Major Congenital Malformations in Pregnancies With Type 2 Diabetes: A Nordic Register-Based Cohort Study.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the risk of major congenital malformations with metformin versus insulin in pregnancies with type 2 diabetes. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: This cohort study used four Nordic countries' nationwide registers of live and stillborn infants exposed to metformin or insulin during first trimester organogenesis. Main exclusion criteria were type 1 diabetes, polycystic ovary syndrome, fertility treatment, and exposure to other diabetes drugs. Adjusted risk ratios (RRs) and 95% CIs were estimated for any and cardiac malformations. RESULTS: Of 3,734,125 infants in the source population, 25,956 were exposed to metformin or insulin in the first trimester, and 4,023 singleton infants were included. A malformation was diagnosed in 147 (4.7%) of 3,145 infants with exposure to any metformin (alone or in addition to insulin) and 50 (5.7%) of 878 infants with exposure to insulin alone (RR 0.84, 95% CI 0.46-1.54). Among 2,852 infants exposed to metformin alone and 293 infants exposed to metformin in addition to insulin 127 (4.4%) and 20 (6.8%), respectively, had a malformation. The adjusted risk was not increased for either metformin alone (0.83, 0.44-1.58) or both metformin and insulin (0.98, 0.56-1.69) versus insulin alone. Corresponding RRs for cardiac malformations were 1.01 (0.55-1.84) for any metformin, 0.92 (0.47-1.81) for metformin alone, and 1.72 (0.76-3.91) for both metformin and insulin. CONCLUSIONS: No evidence of an increased malformation risk with metformin versus insulin in the first trimester was found. Results should be interpreted with caution since information on glycemic control was missing.

Prevalence and Incidence Rates of Atrial Fibrillation in Denmark 2004-2018.

Purpose: To estimate the prevalence and incidence of atrial fibrillation (AF) in Denmark during 2004-2018 and to investigate whether methodological choices influence these estimates. Patients and Methods: A register-based cohort study was conducted of all individuals aged ≥18 years in Denmark 2004-2018. The cumulative prevalence of AF at the end of the study period was calculated as the number of AF cases alive with at least one inpatient or two outpatient diagnoses during 1994-2018 divided by the number of Danish residents in 2018. Incidence rates were calculated as the number of annual AF cases with no previous diagnosis in the past 10 years (ie, a 10-year washout period) divided by the person-time contributed by the population free of AF on 1 January in the same calendar year. Furthermore, the influence of varying case definitions was investigated. Results: The cumulative prevalence of AF was 3.0% in 2018. The incidence rate increased from 391 to 481 per 100,000 person-years (PYs) from 2004 to 2015 (1.7% average annual increase) after which it declined to 367 per 100,000 PYs in 2018 (8.5% average annual decrease). This pattern was observed in both sexes irrespective of age. Methodological choices, particularly the case definition's strictness and the length of the washout period, had a substantial influence on the reported estimates. Conclusion: The cumulative prevalence of AF is currently around 3.0% in the Danish population, but the incidence has declined since 2015. As these estimates are influenced by methodological choices, future studies should strive for precise reporting of study methodology.

Leflunomide inhibition of BK virus replication in renal tubular epithelial cells.

The immunomodulatory drug leflunomide is frequently used for treating polyomavirus-associated nephropathy, yet its antiviral mechanism is unclear. We characterized the effects of the active leflunomide metabolite A771726 (LEF-A) on the polyomavirus BK (BKV) life cycle in human renal tubular epithelial cells. LEF-A at 10 microg/ml reduced the extracellular BKV load by 90% (IC(90)) but with significant host cytostatic effects. BKV genome replication, late protein expression, and virion assembly and release were inhibited with visible disruption of the nuclear replication architecture. Both host cell and antiviral effects were largely reversed by uridine addition, implicating nonspecific pyrimidine depletion as the major anti-BKV mechanism of leflunomide.

Comparative effectiveness of warfarin, dabigatran, rivaroxaban and apixaban in non-valvular atrial fibrillation: A nationwide pharmacoepidemiological study.

OBJECTIVE: To compare effectiveness and safety of warfarin and the direct oral anticoagulants (DOAC) dabigatran, rivaroxaban and apixaban in non-valvular atrial fibrillation in routine care. METHODS: From nationwide registries, we identified treatment-naïve patients initiating warfarin, dabigatran, rivaroxaban or apixaban for non-valvular atrial fibrillation from July 2013 to December 2015 in Norway. We assessed prescription duration using reverse waiting time distribution. Adjusting for confounding in a Cox proportional hazards model, we estimated one-year risks for ischemic stroke, transient ischemic attack (TIA) or systemic embolism, major or clinically relevant non-major bleeding; intracranial; gastrointestinal; and other bleeding. We censored at switch of treatment or 365 days of follow-up. RESULTS: We included 30,820 treatment-naïve patients. Compared to warfarin, the adjusted hazard ratios (HR) for ischemic stroke, TIA or systemic embolism were 0.96 (95% CI 0.71-1.28) for dabigatran, 1.12 (95% CI 0.87-1.45) for rivaroxaban and 0.97 (95% CI 0.75-1.26) for apixaban. Corresponding hazard ratios for major or clinically relevant non-major bleeding were 0.73 (95% CI 0.62-0.86) for dabigatran, 0.97 (95% CI 0.84-1.12) for rivaroxaban and 0.71 (95% CI 0.62-0.82) for apixaban. Statistically significant differences of other safety outcomes compared to warfarin were fewer intracranial bleedings with dabigatran (HR 0.28, 95% CI 0.14-0.56), rivaroxaban (HR 0.40, 95% CI 0.23-0.69) and apixaban (HR 0.56, 95% CI 0.34-0.92); fewer gastrointestinal bleedings with apixaban (HR 0.70, 95% CI 0.52-0.93); and fewer other bleedings with dabigatran (HR 0.67, 95% CI 0.55-0.81) and apixaban (HR 0.70, 95% CI 0.59-0.83). CONCLUSION: After 1 year follow-up in treatment-naïve patients initiating oral anticoagulation for non-valvular atrial fibrillation, all DOACs were similarly effective as warfarin in prevention of ischemic stroke, TIA or systemic embolism. Safety from bleedings was similar or better, including fewer intracranial bleedings with all direct oral anticoagulants, fewer gastrointestinal bleedings with apixaban and fewer other bleedings with dabigatran and apixaban.