Assessing the Economic Resilience of Different Management Systems to Severe Forest Disturbance.

Given the drastic changes in the environment, resilience is a key focus of ecosystem management. Yet, the quantification of the different dimensions of resilience remains challenging, particularly for long-lived systems such as forests. Here we present an analytical framework to study the economic resilience of different forest management systems, focusing on the rate of economic recovery after severe disturbance. Our framework quantifies the post-disturbance gain in the present value of a forest relative to a benchmark system as an indicator of economic resilience. Forest values and silvicultural interventions were determined endogenously from an optimization model and account for risks affecting tree survival. We consider the effects of differences in forest structure and tree growth post disturbance on economic resilience. We demonstrate our approach by comparing the economic resilience of continuous cover forestry against a clear fell system for typical conditions in Central Europe. Continuous cover forestry had both higher economic return and higher economic resilience than the clear fell system. The economic recovery from disturbance in the continuous cover system was between 18.2 and 51.5% faster than in the clear fell system, resulting in present value gains of between 1733 and 4535 € ha-1. The advantage of the continuous cover system increased with discount rate and stand age, and was driven by differences in both stand structure and economic return. We conclude that continuous cover systems can help to address the economic impacts of increasing disturbances in forest management.

Natural disturbance regimes as a guide for sustainable forest management in Europe.

In Europe, forest management has controlled forest dynamics to sustain commodity production over multiple centuries. Yet over-regulation for growth and yield diminishes resilience to environmental stress as well as threatens biodiversity, leading to increasing forest susceptibility to an array of disturbances. These trends have stimulated interest in alternative management systems, including natural dynamics silviculture (NDS). NDS aims to emulate natural disturbance dynamics at stand and landscape scales through silvicultural manipulations of forest structure and landscape patterns. We adapted a "Comparability Index" (CI) to assess convergence/divergence between natural disturbances and forest management effects. We extended the original CI concept based on disturbance size and frequency by adding the residual structure of canopy trees after a disturbance as a third dimension. We populated the model by compiling data on natural disturbance dynamics and management from 13 countries in Europe, covering four major forest types (i.e., spruce, beech, oak, and pine-dominated forests). We found that natural disturbances are highly variable in size, frequency, and residual structure, but European forest management fails to encompass this complexity. Silviculture in Europe is skewed toward even-aged systems, used predominately (72.9% of management) across the countries assessed. The residual structure proved crucial in the comparison of natural disturbances and silvicultural systems. CI indicated the highest congruence between uneven-aged silvicultural systems and key natural disturbance attributes. Even so, uneven-aged practices emulated only a portion of the complexity associated with natural disturbance effects. The remaining silvicultural systems perform poorly in terms of retention compared to tree survivorship after natural disturbances. We suggest that NDS can enrich Europe's portfolio of management systems, for example where wood production is not the primary objective. NDS is especially relevant to forests managed for habitat quality, risk reduction, and a variety of ecosystem services. We suggest a holistic approach integrating NDS with more conventional practices.

Which Socio-economic Conditions Drive the Selection of Agroforestry at the Forest Frontier?

Models are essential to assess the socio-economic credentials of new agroforestry systems. In this study, we showcase robust optimisation as a tool to evaluate agroforestry's potential to meet farmers' multiple goals. Our modelling approach has three parts. First, we use a discrete land-use model to evaluate two agroforestry systems (alley cropping and silvopasture) and conventional land uses against five socio-economic objectives, focusing on the forest frontier in eastern Panama. Next, we couple the land-use model with robust optimisation, to determine the mix of land uses (farm portfolio) that minimises trade-offs between the five objectives. Here we consider uncertainty to simulate the land-use decisions of a risk-averse farmer. Finally, we assess how the type and amount of agroforestry included in the optimal land-use portfolio changes under different environmental, socio-economic and political scenarios, to explore the conditions that may make agroforestry more attractive for farmers. We identify silvopasture as a promising land use for meeting farmers' goals, especially for farms with less productive soils. The additional labour demand compared to conventional pasture, however, may prove an important barrier to adoption for farms facing acute labour shortages. The selection of agroforestry responded strongly to changes in investment costs and timber prices, suggesting that cost-sharing arrangements and tax incentives could be effective strategies to enhance adoption. We found alley cropping to be less compatible with farmers' risk aversion, but this agroforestry system may still be a desirable complement to the land-use portfolio, especially for farmers who are more profit-oriented and tolerant of risk.

Accounting for multiple ecosystem services in a simulation of land-use decisions: Does it reduce tropical deforestation?

Conversion of tropical forests is among the primary causes of global environmental change. The loss of their important environmental services has prompted calls to integrate ecosystem services (ES) in addition to socio-economic objectives in decision-making. To test the effect of accounting for both ES and socio-economic objectives in land-use decisions, we develop a new dynamic approach to model deforestation scenarios for tropical mountain forests. We integrate multi-objective optimization of land allocation with an innovative approach to consider uncertainty spaces for each objective. These uncertainty spaces account for potential variability among decision-makers, who may have different expectations about the future. When optimizing only socio-economic objectives, the model continues the past trend in deforestation (1975-2015) in the projected land-use allocation (2015-2070). Based on indicators for biomass production, carbon storage, climate and water regulation, and soil quality, we show that considering multiple ES in addition to the socio-economic objectives has heterogeneous effects on land-use allocation. It saves some natural forest if the natural forest share is below 38%, and can stop deforestation once the natural forest share drops below 10%. For landscapes with high shares of forest (38%-80% in our study), accounting for multiple ES under high uncertainty of their indicators may, however, accelerate deforestation. For such multifunctional landscapes, two main effects prevail: (a) accelerated expansion of diversified non-natural areas to elevate the levels of the indicators and (b) increased landscape diversification to maintain multiple ES, reducing the proportion of natural forest. Only when accounting for vascular plant species richness as an explicit objective in the optimization, deforestation was consistently reduced. Aiming for multifunctional landscapes may therefore conflict with the aim of reducing deforestation, which we can quantify here for the first time. Our findings are relevant for identifying types of landscapes where this conflict may arise and to better align respective policies.

The valuation of forest ecosystem services as a tool for management planning - A choice experiment.

Forest owners and managers deal with an increasing demand for forest ecosystem services (ES). In addition, a recent change can be observed from a governmental top-down approach to bottom-up initiatives, including efforts of the local population to have a say in forest management decisions. Matching supply and demand is seen as a basic condition for the sustainable utilization of forest ES. Against this background, we address the following research questions: (i) How can the preferences on the supply and demand side of forest ES be consistently determined? (ii) In how far do these preferences vary due to regional and societal differences? (iii) How can the supply and demand of forest ES be matched by forest management alternatives? We conducted a survey in Switzerland with foresters and the wider population to compare attitudes and preferences of the supply and demand side of forest ES. The core of the study is a choice experiment (CE) to elicit the population's willingness to pay (WTP) for specific forest management alternatives, and the respective willingness to accept (WTA) on the foresters' side. To address spatial and societal heterogeneity, we compare different geographic forest zones and settlement areas.

A goal programming approach to evaluate agroforestry systems in Eastern Panama.

Agroforestry is hypothesised to increase ecological and economic functions of farms. Yet it is unclear if and how much agroforestry should be embedded in diversified farming systems to satisfy farmers' needs while potentially enhancing environmental services. To address this research gap we use a mathematical programming model to investigate the role of different agroforestry systems in hypothetical farm portfolios that reduce trade-offs between farmers' goals. Our approach is innovative because it simultaneously considers multiple objectives and the effect of land-use diversification within a farm, is based on knowledge and perceptions of local farmers, and accounts for heterogeneity in farmer judgement. We test the model in a forest frontier region in Eastern Panama, using data from farmer interviews. Farmers evaluated conventional land uses and two agroforestry systems (silvopasture and alley cropping) against 10 pre-defined socio-economic and ecological objectives. First we determined the optimal farm land-use composition that reduces trade-offs between the 10 objectives. The model selects the mix of land uses that secures the best worst-case performance across all objectives, when considering uncertainty in the ability of each land use to achieve each objective (which we quantify by the variability in farmer opinion). Agroforestry dominates the optimised farm portfolio, which comprises 60% silvopasture, 39% forest and 1% plantation. This land-use portfolio, however, deviates strongly from the current land use of farmers, which is 59% pasture, 26% crops, 14% forest and 1% plantation. In a second step we explore the implicit objectives driving farmers' current land-use decisions. We find that immediate-term needs related to food security and liquidity best explain farmers' current land-use portfolio; optimising for these objectives produces a land-use portfolio comprising 60% pasture and 40% crops, which is similar to the current land use. This suggests that increasing agroforestry adoption in the study area will require systems that provide early and frequent returns and allow for ongoing crop production, to better satisfy farmers' cash flow and household consumption needs.

Utilising portfolio theory in environmental research - New perspectives and considerations.

Modern Portfolio Theory is a well-established method in economic research for considering the risks and returns in asset allocations and the potential benefits of diversification for risk averse agents. Thus, it is a useful tool for guiding sustainability discourse under uncertain future states. Existing discussions around the method's use in environmental research have evolved during over the 75 years of its application, leading to a continued renewal of perspectives on utilising it. We classify the environmental questions where portfolio theory has been applied, and critically discuss the methodological approaches taken; providing a stepping stone for future use of the method. This article provides a framework for its application in environmental research using the following questions: 1) what is the type of research or management question and objective(s) of the decision-maker(s); 2) what are the definitions of the assets to be included in the portfolio; 3) what are the ways that returns are valued, discounted, distributed and weighted; 4) what is the most appropriate way for risks to be accounted for and managed, including the selection of the appropriate model and taking into account risk preferences; and 5) what are the definitions of constraints in the programming problem.

Survival of Norway spruce remains higher in mixed stands under a dryer and warmer climate.

Shifts in tree species distributions caused by climatic change are expected to cause severe losses in the economic value of European forestland. However, this projection disregards potential adaptation options such as tree species conversion, shorter production periods, or establishment of mixed species forests. The effect of tree species mixture has, as yet, not been quantitatively investigated for its potential to mitigate future increases in production risks. For the first time, we use survival time analysis to assess the effects of climate, species mixture and soil condition on survival probabilities for Norway spruce and European beech. Accelerated Failure Time (AFT) models based on an extensive dataset of almost 65,000 trees from the European Forest Damage Survey (FDS)--part of the European-wide Level I monitoring network--predicted a 24% decrease in survival probability for Norway spruce in pure stands at age 120 when unfavorable changes in climate conditions were assumed. Increasing species admixture greatly reduced the negative effects of unfavorable climate conditions, resulting in a decline in survival probabilities of only 7%. We conclude that future studies of forest management under climate change as well as forest policy measures need to take this, as yet unconsidered, strongly advantageous effect of tree species mixture into account.

Hybrid MCDA Methods to Integrate Multiple Ecosystem Services in Forest Management Planning: A Critical Review.

Multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) is a decision aid frequently used in the field of forest management planning. It includes the evaluation of multiple criteria such as the production of timber and non-timber forest products and tangible as well as intangible values of ecosystem services (ES). Hence, it is beneficial compared to those methods that take a purely financial perspective. Accordingly, MCDA methods are increasingly popular in the wide field of sustainability assessment. Hybrid approaches allow aggregating MCDA and, potentially, other decision-making techniques to make use of their individual benefits and leading to a more holistic view of the actual consequences that come with certain decisions. This review is providing a comprehensive overview of hybrid approaches that are used in forest management planning. Today, the scientific world is facing increasing challenges regarding the evaluation of ES and the trade-offs between them, for example between provisioning and regulating services. As the preferences of multiple stakeholders are essential to improve the decision process in multi-purpose forestry, participatory and hybrid approaches turn out to be of particular importance. Accordingly, hybrid methods show great potential for becoming most relevant in future decision making. Based on the review presented here, the development of models for the use in planning processes should focus on participatory modeling and the consideration of uncertainty regarding available information.

Drivers of land use/land cover changes in Munessa-Shashemene landscape of the south-central highlands of Ethiopia.

Understanding drivers of changes in land use/land cover (LULC) is essential for modeling future dynamics or development of management strategies to ameliorate or prevent further decline of natural resources. In this study, an attempt has been made to identify the main drivers behind the LULC changes that had occurred in the past four decades in Munessa-Shashemene landscape of the south-central highlands of Ethiopia. The datasets required for the study were generated through both primary and secondary sources. Combination of techniques, including descriptive statistics, GIS-based processing, and regression analyses were employed for data analyses. Changes triggered by the interplay of more than 12 drivers were identified related to social, economic, environmental, policy/institutional, and technological factors. Specifically, population growth, expansion of cultivated lands and settlements, livestock ranching, cutting of woody species for fuelwood, and charcoal making were the top six important drivers of LULC change as viewed by the local people and confirmed by quantitative analyses. Differences in respondents' perceptions related to environmental (i.e., location specific) and socioeconomic determinants (e.g., age and literacy) about drivers were statically significant (P = 0.001). LULC changes were also determined by distances to major drivers (e.g., the further a pixel is from the road, the less likelihood of changes) as shown by the landscape level analyses. Further studies are suggested targeting these drivers to explore the consequences and future options and formulate intervention strategies for sustainable development in the studied landscape and elsewhere with similar geographic settings.

Quantifying the impact of key factors on the carbon mitigation potential of managed temperate forests.

BACKGROUND: Forests mitigate climate change by reducing atmospheric CO 2 -concentrations through the carbon sink in the forest and in wood products, and substitution effects when wood products replace carbon-intensive materials and fuels. Quantifying the carbon mitigation potential of forests is highly challenging due to the influence of multiple important factors such as forest age and type, climate change and associated natural disturbances, harvest intensities, wood usage patterns, salvage logging practices, and the carbon-intensity of substituted products. Here, we developed a framework to quantify the impact of these factors through factorial simulation experiments with an ecosystem model at the example of central European (Bavarian) forests. RESULTS: Our simulations showed higher mitigation potentials of young forests compared to mature forests, and similar ones in broad-leaved and needle-leaved forests. Long-lived wood products significantly contributed to mitigation, particularly in needle-leaved forests due to their wood product portfolio, and increased material usage of wood showed considerable climate benefits. Consequently, the ongoing conversion of needle-leaved to more broad-leaved forests should be accompanied by the promotion of long-lived products from broad-leaved species to maintain the product sink. Climate change (especially increasing disturbances) and decarbonization were among the most critical factors influencing mitigation potentials and introduced substantial uncertainty. Nevertheless, until 2050 this uncertainty was narrow enough to derive robust findings. For instance, reducing harvest intensities enhanced the carbon sink in our simulations, but diminished substitution effects, leading to a decreased total mitigation potential until 2050. However, when considering longer time horizons (i.e. until 2100), substitution effects became low enough in our simulations due to expected decarbonization such that decreasing harvests often seemed the more favorable solution. CONCLUSION: Our results underscore the need to tailor mitigation strategies to the specific conditions of different forest sites. Furthermore, considering substitution effects, and thoroughly assessing the amount of avoided emissions by using wood products, is critical to determine mitigation potentials. While short-term recommendations are possible, we suggest risk diversification and methodologies like robust optimization to address increasing uncertainties from climate change and decarbonization paces past 2050. Finally, curbing emissions reduces the threat of climate change on forests, safeguarding their carbon sink and ecosystem services.

Optimizing forest landscape composition for multiple ecosystem services based on uncertain stakeholder preferences.

Determining the desirable composition of a forested landscape and its associated ecosystem services (ES) is challenging because the solutions must reconcile the preferences of various forest stakeholders and account for uncertain data. By combining multi-objective robust optimization with an online survey of forest professionals in Slovenia (n = 130) and forest professionals, forest scientists, nature conservationists and forest owners in Germany (n = 649) about optimal forest landscape composition, we derived compromise portfolios of forest types. These portfolios minimize the trade-offs between five ES (stopping avalanches, carbon storage, recreation, timber production and regulating flows of water), and account for the varying capacity of eight forest types to supply ES. The resulting optimized forest landscape compositions always comprised at least two forest types. In both countries, uneven-aged native deciduous and conifer mixed stands were prominent in the optimized portfolios. In Germany, however, the optimized portfolio also contained exotic species in mixtures, whereas forest stands without active management were notable for several ES in Slovenia. Unmanaged forest stands were also selected in the forest composition optimized for nature conservationists in Germany: the nature conservationists' portfolio diverged strongly from those of the other stakeholders. Our results illustrate that diversified forested landscapes provide multiple ES, but also secure the provision of a single ES when accounting for uncertainty. The optimal forest compositions obtained by multi-objective robust optimization are a starting point for participatory planning approaches to identify the most socially acceptable strategies for adapting forest management to an uncertain future.

Abrupt height growth setbacks show overbrowsing of tree saplings, which can be reduced by raising deer harvest.

Intensive ungulate browsing significantly impacts forests worldwide. However, it is usually not single browsing events that lead to sapling mortality, but the little-researched interactions of browsed saplings with their biotic and abiotic environment. (I) Our objective was to assess the impact of ungulate browsing on the growth of young saplings relative to other environmental factors by utilizing their height increment as a sensitive measure of vitality to indicate their status. (II) Furthermore, we aimed to identify factors affecting ungulate browsing at our study sites, assessed as browsing probabilities, and identify effective mitigation measures for browsing impact. We analyzed an extensive sapling dataset of 248 wildlife exclosures, which were erected in 2016 in beech dominated forests across Germany and assessed annually until 2020. (I) Browsing probability and light availability were the most influential parameters for selectively browsed, admixed tree species (e.g., sycamore maple). Height increment showed abrupt setbacks, which caused a permanent collapse of growth when browsing exceeded a certain level. However, light availability enhanced height increment. (II) An increase in deer harvest reduced the browsing probability of selectively browsed species considerably. We conclude that the growth-inhibiting effect of ungulate browsing is a multifactorial phenomenon, which can be mitigated by silvicultural management and efficient hunting strategies.

Auctioning approaches for ecosystem services - Evidence and applications.

Auctions have attracted growing attention as bidding mechanisms for soliciting or allocating payments for a wide range of ecosystem services (ES). This paper reviews the latest scientific knowledge on ES auctioning approaches. Using systematically selected academic articles, we trace and discuss the development of ES auction literature across space, time, target ecosystem, and mechanism type. We integrate previous attempts to organize this body of work to produce a composite factor map of entry points to more specialized sub-literatures engaging with current issues in auction design and implementation. The results show that most academic work focuses on reverse auctions, where landowners bid their willingness to accept contracts to protect or promote ES provisioning, but we also locate several forward (i.e. beneficiaries bid their willingness to pay for ES) and mixed mechanisms. We critically analyze major advantages and challenges for each approach, emphasizing issues related to transaction costs and accessibility for participants and agencies. Overall, our findings suggest that ES auctions have a robust track record but remain administratively and logistically challenging. Further investment in open-source tools, shared infrastructure, and other efforts to make auctions more accessible to researchers, agencies, and participants alike is strongly indicated.

On the functional relationship between biodiversity and economic value.

Biodiversity's contribution to human welfare has become a key argument for maintaining and enhancing biodiversity in managed ecosystems. The functional relationship between biodiversity (b) and economic value (V) is, however, insufficiently understood, despite the premise of a positive-concave bV relationship that dominates scientific and political arenas. Here, we review how individual links between biodiversity, ecosystem functions (F), and services affect resulting bV relationships. Our findings show that bV relationships are more variable, also taking negative-concave/convex or strictly concave and convex forms. This functional form is driven not only by the underlying bF relationship but also by the number and type of ecosystem services and their potential trade-offs considered, the effects of inputs, and the type of utility function used to represent human preferences. Explicitly accounting for these aspects will enhance the substance and coverage of future valuation studies and allow more nuanced conclusions, particularly for managed ecosystems.

Scenario modelling of land use/land cover changes in Munessa-Shashemene landscape of the Ethiopian highlands.

Models under a set of scenarios are used to simulate and improve our understanding of land use/land cover (LULC) changes, which is central for sustainable management of a given natural resource. In this study, we simulated and examined the possible future LULC patterns and changes in Munessa-Shashemene landscape of the Ethiopian highlands covering four decades (2012-2050) using a spatially explicit GIS-based model. Both primary and secondary sources were utilized to identify relevant explanatory variables (drivers) and LULC datasets for the model. Three alternative scenarios, namely Business As Usual (BAU), Forest Conservation and Water Protection (FCWP) and Sustainable Intensification (SI) were used. The simulated LULC map of 2012 was compared with the actual for model validation and showed a good consistency. The results revealed that areas of croplands will increase widely under the BAU scenario and would expand to the remaining woodlands, natural forests and grasslands, reflecting vulnerability of these LULC types and potential loss of associated ecosystem service values (ESVs). FCWP scenario would bring competition among other LULC types, particularly more pressure to the grassland ecosystem. Hence, the two scenarios will result in severe LULC dynamics that lead to serious environmental crisis. The SI scenario, with holistic approach, demonstrated that expansion of croplands could vigorously be reduced, remaining forests better conserved and degraded land recovered, resulting in gains of the associated total ESVs. We conclude that a holistic landscape management, i.e. SI, is the best approach to ensure expected production while safeguarding the environment of the studied landscape and elsewhere with similar geographic settings. Further study is suggested to practically test our framework through a research for development approach in a test site so that it can be used as a model area for effective use and conservation of our natural resources.

Agroforestry versus farm mosaic systems - Comparing land-use efficiency, economic returns and risks under climate change effects.

Increasing land-use conflicts call for the development of land-use systems that reconcile agricultural production with the provisioning of multiple ecosystem services, including climate change mitigation. Agroforestry has been suggested as a global solution to increase land-use efficiency, while reducing environmental impacts and economic risks for farmers. Past research has often focused on comparing tree-crop combinations with agricultural monocultures, but agroforestry has seldom been systematically compared to other forms of land-use diversification, including a farm mosaic. This form of diversification mixes separate parcels of different land uses within the farm. The objective of this study was to develop a modelling approach to compare the performance of the agroforestry and farm mosaic diversification strategies, accounting for tree-crop interaction effects and economic and climate uncertainty. For this purpose, Modern Portfolio Theory and risk simulation were coupled with the process-based biophysical simulation model WaNuLCAS 4.0. For an example application, we used data from a field trial in Panama. The results show that the simulated agroforestry systems (Taungya, alley cropping and border planting) could outperform a farm mosaic approach in terms of cumulative production and return. Considering market and climate uncertainty, agroforestry showed an up to 21% higher economic return at the same risk level (i.e. standard deviation of economic returns). Farm compositions with large shares of land allocated to maize cultivation were also more severely affected by an increasing drought frequency in terms of both risks and returns. Our study demonstrates that agroforestry can be an economically efficient diversification strategy, but only if the design allows for economies of scope, beneficial interactions between trees and crops and higher income diversification compared to a farm mosaic. The modelling approach can make an important contribution to support land-use decisions at the farm level and reduce land-use conflicts at the landscape level.

Changes of ecosystem service values in response to land use/land cover dynamics in Munessa-Shashemene landscape of the Ethiopian highlands.

Land use/land cover (LULC) dynamics alter ecosystem services values (ESVs), yet quantitative evaluations of changes in ESVs are seldom attempted. Using Munessa-Shashemene landscape of the Ethiopian highlands as an example, we showed estimate of changes in ESVs in response to LULC dynamics over the past four decades (1973-2012). Estimation and change analyses of ESVs were conducted, mainly, by employing GIS using LULC datasets of the year 1973, 1986, 2000 and 2012 with their corresponding global value coefficients developed earlier and our own modified conservative value coefficients for the studied landscape. The results between periods revealed a decrease of total ESVs from US$ 130.5 million in 1973, to US$ 118.5, 114.8 and 111.1 million in 1986, 2000 and 2012, respectively. While using global value coefficients, the total ESVs declined from US$ 164.6 million in 1973, to US$ 135.8, 127.2 and 118.7 million in 1986, 2000 and 2012, respectively. The results from the analyses of changes in the four decades revealed a total loss of ESVs ranging from US$ 19.3 million when using our own modified value coefficients to US$ 45.9 million when employing global value coefficients. Changes have also occurred in values of individual ecosystem service functions, such as erosion control, nutrient cycling, climate regulation and water treatment, which were among the highest contributors of the total ESVs. However, the value of food production service function consistently increased during the study periods although not drastically. All in all, it must be considered a minimum estimate of ESV changes due to uncertainties in the value coefficients used in this study. We conclude that the decline of ESVs reflected the effects of ecological degradation in the studied landscape and suggest further studies to explore future options and formulate intervention strategies.

Compositional diversity of rehabilitated tropical lands supports multiple ecosystem services and buffers uncertainties.

High landscape diversity is assumed to increase the number and level of ecosystem services. However, the interactions between ecosystem service provision, disturbance and landscape composition are poorly understood. Here we present a novel approach to include uncertainty in the optimization of land allocation for improving the provision of multiple ecosystem services. We refer to the rehabilitation of abandoned agricultural lands in Ecuador including two types of both afforestation and pasture rehabilitation, together with a succession option. Our results show that high compositional landscape diversity supports multiple ecosystem services (multifunction effect). This implicitly provides a buffer against uncertainty. Our work shows that active integration of uncertainty is only important when optimizing single or highly correlated ecosystem services and that the multifunction effect on landscape diversity is stronger than the uncertainty effect. This is an important insight to support a land-use planning based on ecosystem services.