Forecasting the future of life in Antarctica.

Antarctic ecosystems are under increasing anthropogenic pressure, but efforts to predict the responses of Antarctic biodiversity to environmental change are hindered by considerable data challenges. Here, we illustrate how novel data capture technologies provide exciting opportunities to sample Antarctic biodiversity at wider spatiotemporal scales. Data integration frameworks, such as point process and hierarchical models, can mitigate weaknesses in individual data sets, improving confidence in their predictions. Increasing process knowledge in models is imperative to achieving improved forecasts of Antarctic biodiversity, which can be attained for data-limited species using hybrid modelling frameworks. Leveraging these state-of-the-art tools will help to overcome many of the data scarcity challenges presented by the remoteness of Antarctica, enabling more robust forecasts both near- and long-term.

Physiology, niche characteristics and extreme events: Current and future habitat suitability of a rhodolith-forming species in the Southwestern Atlantic.

Given the ecological and biogeochemical importance of rhodolith beds, it is necessary to investigate how future environmental conditions will affect these organisms. We investigated the impacts of increased nutrient concentrations, acidification, and marine heatwaves on the performance of the rhodolith-forming species Lithothamnion crispatum in a short-term experiment, including the recovery of individuals after stressor removal. Furthermore, we developed an ecological niche model to establish which environmental conditions determine its current distribution along the Brazilian coast and to project responses to future climate scenarios. Although L. crispatum suffered a reduction in photosynthetic performance when exposed to stressors, they returned to pre-experiment values following the return of individuals to control conditions. The model showed that the most important variables in explaining the current distribution of L. crispatum on the Brazilian coast were maximum nitrate and temperature. In future ocean conditions, the model predicted a range expansion of habitat suitability for this species of approximately 58.5% under RCP 8.5. Physiological responses to experimental future environmental conditions corroborated model predictions of the expansion of this species' habitat suitability in the future. This study, therefore, demonstrates the benefits of applying combined approaches to examine potential species responses to climate-change drivers from multiple angles.

How experimental physiology and ecological niche modelling can inform the management of marine bioinvasions?

Marine bioinvasions are increasing worldwide by a number of factors related to the anthroposphere, such as higher ship traffic, climate change and biotic communities' alterations. Generating information about species with high invasive potential is necessary to inform management decisions aiming to prevent their arrival and spread. Grateloupia turuturu, one of the most harmful invasive macroalgae, is capable of damaging ecosystem functions and services, and causing biodiversity loss. Here we developed an ecological niche model using occurrence and environmental data to infer the potential global distribution of G. turuturu. In addition, ecophysiological experiments were performed with G. turuturu populations from different climatic regions to test predictions regarding invasion risk. Our model results show high suitability in temperate and warm temperate regions around the world, with special highlight to some areas where this species still doesn't occur. Thalli representing a potential temperate region origin, were held at 10, 13, 16, 20 and 24 °C, and measurements of optimal quantum field (Fv/Fm) demonstrated a decrease of photosynthetic yield in the higher temperature. Thalli from the population already established in warm temperate South Atlantic were held at 18, 24 and 30 °C with high and low nutrient conditions. This material exposed to the higher temperature demonstrated a drop in photosynthetic yield and significant reduction of growth rate. The congregation of modelling and physiological approach corroborate the invasive potential of G. turuturu and indicate higher invasion risk in temperate zones. Further discussions regarding management initiatives must be fostered to mitigate anthropogenic transport and eventually promote eradication initiatives in source areas, with special focus in the South America. We propose that this combined approach can be used to assess the potential distribution and establishment of other marine invasive species.

Physiological damages of Sargassum cymosum and Hypnea pseudomusciformis exposed to trace metals from mining tailing.

The damages of Mariana's mining mud in the physiology of the brown algae Sargassum cymosum and its main epiphytic, the red algae Hypnea pseudomusciformis, were evaluated by controlled essays. Seaweeds were exposed to presence or absence of mud, isolated or in biological association, for 5 and 15 days. Measured parameters were growth rates, biochemical descriptors, and the chemical investigation of concentration and metal profile of the mud dissolved in seawater. Results showed that the highest values for metals were Al > Fe > Mn > Zn in both exposure periods. The mud also affected the growth rate with lethality in both isolated and associative treatments with H. pseudomusciformis after 15 days. According to our redundancy analysis (RDA), the profile and concentration of all metallic elements can induce different physiological responses of the organisms. We were able to observe a higher physiological adaptive ability of S. cymosum against the long-term presence of metals by the synthesis of phenolic compounds, while the deviation of metabolic routes in H. pseudomusciformis can be addressed as the main responsible for its lethality. Moreover, the presence of Hypnea in associative treatments reduces Sargassum's detoxification ability. The present results reinforce the importance of biological interaction studies in a context of physiological resilience against mining mud pollution and mutual influences of species over the individual ability to avoid oxidative stress.