RESUMO
BACKGROUND: Childhood cancer survivors are at risk of subsequent gliomas and meningiomas, but the risks beyond age 40 years are uncertain. We quantified these risks in the largest ever cohort. METHODS: Using data from 69,460 5-year childhood cancer survivors (diagnosed 1940-2008), across Europe, standardized incidence ratios (SIRs) and cumulative incidence were calculated. RESULTS: In total, 279 glioma and 761 meningioma were identified. CNS tumour (SIR: 16.2, 95% CI: 13.7, 19.2) and leukaemia (SIR: 11.2, 95% CI: 8.8, 14.2) survivors were at greatest risk of glioma. The SIR for CNS tumour survivors was still 4.3-fold after age 50 (95% CI: 1.9, 9.6), and for leukaemia survivors still 10.2-fold after age 40 (95% CI: 4.9, 21.4). Following cranial radiotherapy (CRT), the cumulative incidence of a glioma in CNS tumour survivors was 2.7%, 3.7% and 5.0% by ages 40, 50 and 60, respectively, whilst for leukaemia this was 1.2% and 1.7% by ages 40 and 50. The cumulative incidence of a meningioma after CRT in CNS tumour survivors doubled from 5.9% to 12.5% between ages 40 and 60, and in leukaemia survivors increased from 5.8% to 10.2% between ages 40 and 50. DISCUSSION: Clinicians following up survivors should be aware that the substantial risks of meningioma and glioma following CRT are sustained beyond age 40 and be vigilant for symptoms.
Assuntos
Neoplasias do Sistema Nervoso Central , Glioma , Leucemia , Neoplasias Meníngeas , Meningioma , Segunda Neoplasia Primária , Humanos , Adolescente , Adulto , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Meningioma/etiologia , Meningioma/complicações , Fatores de Risco , Segunda Neoplasia Primária/epidemiologia , Segunda Neoplasia Primária/etiologia , Neoplasias do Sistema Nervoso Central/epidemiologia , Glioma/epidemiologia , Sobreviventes , Leucemia/epidemiologia , Europa (Continente)/epidemiologia , Neoplasias Meníngeas/epidemiologia , IncidênciaRESUMO
BACKGROUND: We assessed the prevalence and diagnostic value of ECG abnormalities for cardiomyopathy surveillance in childhood cancer survivors. METHODS: In this cross-sectional study, 1381 survivors (≥5 years) from the Dutch Childhood Cancer Survivor Study part 2 and 272 siblings underwent a long-term follow-up ECG and echocardiography. We compared ECG abnormality prevalences using the Minnesota Code between survivors and siblings, and within biplane left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) categories. Among 880 survivors who received anthracycline, mitoxantrone or heart radiotherapy, logistic regression models using least absolute shrinkage and selection operator identified ECG abnormalities associated with three abnormal LVEF categories (<52% in male/<54% in female, <50% and <45%). We assessed the overall contribution of these ECG abnormalities to clinical regression models predicting abnormal LVEF, assuming an absence of systolic dysfunction with a <1% threshold probability. RESULTS: 16% of survivors (52% female, mean age 34.7 years) and 14% of siblings had major ECG abnormalities. ECG abnormalities increased with decreasing LVEF. Integrating selected ECG data into the baseline model significantly improved prediction of sex-specific abnormal LVEF (c-statistic 0.66 vs 0.71), LVEF <50% (0.66 vs 0.76) and LVEF <45% (0.80 vs 0.86). While no survivor met the preset probability threshold in the first two models, the third model used five ECG variables to predict LVEF <45% and was applicable for ruling out (sensitivity 93%, specificity 56%, negative predictive value 99.6%). Calibration and internal validation tests performed well. CONCLUSION: A clinical prediction model with ECG data (left bundle branch block, left atrial enlargement, left heart axis, Cornell's criteria for left ventricular hypertrophy and heart rate) may aid in ruling out LVEF <45%.