Assessing the quality of data for drivers of disease emergence.

Drivers are factors that have the potential to directly or indirectly influence the likelihood of infectious diseases emerging or re-emerging. It is likely that an emerging infectious disease (EID) rarely occurs as the result of only one driver; rather, a network of sub-drivers (factors that can influence a driver) are likely to provide conditions that allow a pathogen to (re-)emerge and become established. Data on sub-drivers have therefore been used by modellers to identify hotspots where EIDs may next occur, or to estimate which sub-drivers have the greatest influence on the likelihood of their occurrence. To minimise error and bias when modelling how sub-drivers interact, and thus aid in predicting the likelihood of infectious disease emergence, researchers need good-quality data to describe these sub-drivers. This study assesses the quality of the available data on sub-drivers of West Nile virus against various criteria as a case study. The data were found to be of varying quality with regard to fulfilling the criteria. The characteristic with the lowest score was completeness, i.e. where sufficient data are available to fulfil all the requirements for the model. This is an important characteristic as an incomplete data set could lead to erroneous conclusions being drawn from modelling studies. Thus, the availability of good-quality data is essential to reduce uncertainty when estimating the likelihood of where EID outbreaks may occur and identifying the points on the risk pathway where preventive measures may be taken.

Les facteurs d'émergence sont des éléments ayant le potentiel direct ou indirect d'influencer la probabilité d'émergence ou de réémergence d'une maladie infectieuse. Il est probablement rare qu'une maladie infectieuse émergente apparaisse en raison d'un seul facteur ; c'est plutôt un faisceau de sous-facteurs (éléments pouvant avoir une influence sur un même facteur) qui contribue à ce que les conditions soient réunies pour qu'un agent pathogène puisse (ré)émerger et s'établir. Les concepteurs de modèles ont donc utilisé les données relatives aux sous-facteurs pour identifier les zones sensibles où les prochaines maladies infectieuses émergentes pourraient survenir, ou pour faire une estimation des sous-facteurs ayant la plus grande influence sur la probabilité de leur occurrence. Les chercheurs ont besoin de données de qualité pour décrire ces sous-facteurs, afin de minimiser le risque d'erreur et de biais lors de la modélisation de l'interaction entre les différents sous-facteurs, et de contribuer ainsi à mieux prédire la probabilité d'apparition d'une maladie infectieuse émergente. Les auteurs présentent une étude de cas qui a consisté à évaluer la qualité des données disponibles relatives aux sous-facteurs d'émergence du virus de la fièvre de West Nile au regard de différents critères. Il est apparu que la qualité des données était variable au regard des critères examinés. Le paramètre dont le score était le plus bas est celui de la complétude - le fait que suffisamment de données soient disponibles pour répondre à toutes les exigences du modèle. Il s'agit pourtant d'un paramètre important car des données incomplètes peuvent inciter à tirer des conclusions erronées des études de modélisation. La disponibilité de données de bonne qualité est essentielle pour réduire l'incertitude lors de l'estimation de la probabilité d'apparition de maladies infectieuses émergentes dans des zones déterminées, ainsi que pour identifier les points critiques de concrétisation du risque où des mesures préventives pourraient être mises en place.

Los inductores o factores de inducción [drivers] son aquellos que, directa o indirectamente, pueden influir en la probabilidad de que surjan o resurjan enfermedades infecciosas. Todo indica que rara vez una enfermedad infecciosa emergente aparece por efecto de un solo factor de inducción, sino que es probable que haya más bien una combinación de "subfactores de influencia" [sub-drivers] (factores que pueden influir en un inductor) que cree condiciones propicias para que un patógeno (re)surja y logre asentarse. Los creadores de modelos, por consiguiente, se han servido de datos sobre estos subfactores de influencia para localizar aquellas zonas donde con mayor probabilidad puedan aparecer próximamente enfermedades infecciosas emergentes o para determinar cuáles son los subfactores que más influyen en la probabilidad de que ello ocurra. Para reducir al mínimo los errores y sesgos al modelizar la interacción entre los subfactores y ayudar así a calcular la probabilidad de que surja una enfermedad infecciosa emergente, los investigadores necesitan datos de buena calidad para caracterizar estos subfactores. En el análisis expuesto por los autores se utilizó el virus del Nilo Occidental como ejemplo de estudio para evaluar, con arreglo a diversos criterios, la calidad de los datos existentes sobre los subfactores que inciden en la aparición de este virus. Lo que se constató, en relación con el grado de cumplimiento de los criterios, es que esos datos eran de calidad variable. La característica o parámetro que deparó la puntuación más baja fue la completud, es decir, la existencia de datos suficientes para aportar al modelo toda la información requerida para que este funcione bien. Se trata de una característica importante, pues un conjunto incompleto de datos podría llevar a extraer conclusiones erróneas de los estudios de modelización. Por ello, para reducir la incertidumbre a la hora de calcular la probabilidad de que en cierto lugar surjan brotes de enfermedades infecciosas emergentes y de determinar, dentro de la cadena de materialización del riesgo, aquellos eslabones en los que cabe adoptar medidas preventivas, es indispensable disponer de datos de buena calidad.

Global status of Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus in dromedary camels: a systematic review.

Dromedary camels have been shown to be the main reservoir for human Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS) infections. This systematic review aims to compile and analyse all published data on MERS-coronavirus (CoV) in the global camel population to provide an overview of current knowledge on the distribution, spread and risk factors of infections in dromedary camels. We included original research articles containing laboratory evidence of MERS-CoV infections in dromedary camels in the field from 2013 to April 2018. In general, camels only show minor clinical signs of disease after being infected with MERS-CoV. Serological evidence of MERS-CoV in camels has been found in 20 countries, with molecular evidence for virus circulation in 13 countries. The seroprevalence of MERS-CoV antibodies increases with age in camels, while the prevalence of viral shedding as determined by MERS-CoV RNA detection in nasal swabs decreases. In several studies, camels that were sampled at animal markets or quarantine facilities were seropositive more often than camels at farms as well as imported camels vs. locally bred camels. Some studies show a relatively higher seroprevalence and viral detection during the cooler winter months. Knowledge of the animal reservoir of MERS-CoV is essential to develop intervention and control measures to prevent human infections.

A novel hepatitis B virus subgenotype D10 circulating in Ethiopia.

Hepatitis B virus (HBV) is genetically highly divergent and classified in ten genotypes and forty subgenotypes in distinct ethno-geographic populations worldwide. Ethiopia is a country with high HBV prevalence; however, little is known about the genetic variability of HBV strains that circulate. Here, we characterize the complete genome of 29 HBV strains originating from five Ethiopian regions, by 454 deep sequencing and Sanger sequencing. Phylogenetically, ten strains were classified as genotype A1 and nineteen as genotype D. Fifteen genotype D strains, provisionally named subgenotype D10, showed a novel distinct cluster supported by high bootstrap value and >4% nucleotide divergence from other known subgenotypes. In addition, the novel D10 strains harboured nine unique amino acid signatures in the surface, polymerase and X genes. Seventy-two per cent of the genotype D strains had the precore premature stop codon G1896A. In addition, 63% genotype A and 33% genotype D strains had the basal core promoter mutations, A1762T/G1764A. Furthermore, four pre-S deletion variants and two recombinants were identified in this study. In conclusion, we identified a novel HBV subgenotype D10 circulating in Ethiopia, underlining the high genetic variability of HBV strains in Africa.

Developing a framework to assess the costeffectiveness of COMPARE - a global platform for the exchange of sequence-based pathogen data.

Analysing the genomic data of pathogens with the help of next-generation sequencing (NGS) is an increasingly important part of disease outbreak investigations and helps guide responses. While this technology has already been successfully employed to elucidate and control disease outbreaks, wider implementation of NGS also depends on its cost-effectiveness. COMPARE - short for 'Collaborative Management Platform for detection and Analyses of (Re-) emerging and foodborne outbreaks' - is a major project, funded by the European Union, to develop a global platform for sharing and analysing NGS data and thereby improve the rapid identification, containment and mitigation of emerging infectious diseases and foodborne outbreaks. This article introduces the project and presents the results of a review of the literature, composed of previous relevant cost-benefit and cost-effectiveness analyses. The authors also outline the implications for a methodological framework to assess the costeffectiveness of COMPARE and similar systems.

L'analyse des données sur le génome des agents pathogènes grâce au séquençage de nouvelle génération (SNG) joue un rôle de plus en plus important dans les enquêtes sur les foyers de maladies et contribue à l'élaboration de stratégies de réponse. Si cette technologie a été utilisée avec succès pour élucider la cause des certains foyers et pour les contrôler, une application plus large du SNG dépend également de sa rentabilité. La plate-forme COMPARE (plate-forme de gestion collaborative pour la détection et l'analyse des foyers émergents et ré-émergents et des toxi-infections alimentaires) est un projet de grande envergure financé par l'Union européenne, visant à mettre en place une plate-forme mondiale d'échanges et d'analyse des données de séquençage de nouvelle génération et à améliorer ainsi l'identification précoce, le confinement et l'atténuation des maladies infectieuses émergentes et des foyers de toxiinfections alimentaires. Les auteurs présentent le projet ainsi que les résultats d'une étude bibliographique intégrant des analyses pertinentes coûts­avantages et coûts­efficacité réalisées dans le passé. Ils soulignent également les enseignements de ces analyses pour l'élaboration d'un cadre méthodologique d'évaluation de la relation coûts­efficacité applicable au système COMPARE et à d'autres systèmes similaires.

El análisis de datos genómicos de los patógenos con ayuda de técnicas de secuenciación de próxima generación es un componente cada vez más importante de la investigación de brotes infecciosos, que resulta de utilidad para guiar las medidas de respuesta. Aunque estas técnicas ya se han utilizado con éxito para elucidar y combatir brotes de enfermedad, su aplicación generalizada también dependerá de la relación costo-eficacia que ofrezcan. COMPARE (acrónimo inglés de «plataforma de gestión colectiva para la detección y análisis de brotes (re)emergentes y de transmisión alimentaria¼) es un vasto proyecto financiado por la Unión Europea que apunta a instituir un dispositivo mundial de intercambio y análisis de datos de secuenciación de próxima generación y lograr así más eficacia en la rápida identificación, contención y mitigación de brotes de transmisión alimentaria y de enfermedades infecciosas emergentes. Los autores exponen el proyecto y presentan los resultados de un repaso bibliográfico de anteriores análisis de las relaciones costo-beneficio y costo-eficacia de estas técnicas. Además, explican brevemente lo que puede aportar un marco metodológico para evaluar la relación costo-eficacia del sistema COMPARE y de otros sistemas similares.

The sample of choice for detecting Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus in asymptomatic dromedary camels using real-time reversetranscription polymerase chain reaction.

The newly identified Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV), which causes severe respiratory disease, particularly in people with comorbidities, requires further investigation. Studies in Qatar and elsewhere have provided evidence that dromedary camels are a reservoir for the virus, but the exact modes of transmission of MERS-CoV to humans remain unclear. In February 2014, an assessment was made of the suitability and sensitivity of different types of sample for the detection of MERSCoV by real-time reverse-transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) for three gene targets: UpE (upstream of the E gene), the N (nucleocapsid) gene and open reading frame (ORF) 1a. Fifty-three animals presented for slaughter were sampled. A high percentage of the sampled camels (79% [95% confidence interval 66.9-91.5%, standard error 0.0625]; 42 out of 53) were shown to be shedding MERS-CoV at the time of slaughter, yet all the animals were apparently healthy. Among the virus-positive animals, nasal swabs were most often positive (97.6%). Oral swabs were the second most frequently positive (35.7%), followed by rectal swabs (28.5%). In addition, the highest viral load, expressed as a cycle threshold (Ct) value of 11.27, was obtained from a nasal swab. These findings lead to the conclusion that nasal swabs are the candidate sample of choice for detecting MERS-CoV using RT-PCR technology in apparently healthy camels.

Des travaux de recherche approfondis sont encore nécessaires concernant le coronavirus responsable du syndrome respiratoire du Moyen-Orient (MERSCoV), un virus identifié récemment et qui provoque des troubles respiratoires sévères en particulier chez les individus atteints de pathologies multiples. Les études effectuées au Qatar et ailleurs ont démontré que les dromadaires font office de réservoirs du virus ; toutefois, les modalités précises de la transmission du MERS-CoV à l'être humain demeurent obscures. En février 2014, une équipe de chercheurs a évalué l'adéquation et la sensibilité de plusieurs types d'échantillons pour détecter le MERS-CoV en utilisant l'amplification en chaîne par polymérase couplée à une transcription inverse en temps réel (RT-PCR) spécifique pour trois cibles génétiques, à savoir la séquence UpE (en amont du gène E), le gène N (nucléocapside) et le cadre de lecture ORF1a. Pour ce faire, divers prélèvements ont été effectués sur 53 dromadaires destinés à l'abattage. Un fort pourcentage de ces dromadaires (79 % [intervalle de confiance à 95 % compris entre 66,9 et 91,5 %, erreur standard : 0,0625], soit 42 sur 53) excrétaient le MERSCoV au moment de l'abattage, mais aucun ne présentait le moindre signe clinique. Les échantillons dans lesquels le plus de cas positifs ont été détectés étaient les écouvillons nasaux (97,6 %). Venaient ensuite les écouvillons oraux, qui ont détecté 35,7 % de cas positifs, puis les écouvillons rectaux (28,5 % de cas positifs détectés). Par ailleurs, ce sont les écouvillons nasaux qui ont permis d'obtenir l'intensité la plus élevée de la réponse de la RT-PCR, exprimée en une valeur du seuil de cycles de 11,27. Ces résultats permettent de conclure que les écouvillons nasaux sont les échantillons à privilégier pour la détection du MERS-CoV par RTPCR chez les dromadaires asymptomatiques.

Es preciso investigar más a fondo el coronavirus del síndrome respiratorio de Oriente Medio (MERS-CoV), recién identificado, que provoca una grave enfermedad respiratoria, sobre todo en personas con afecciones concomitantes. Estudios realizados en Qatar y otros lugares han deparado pruebas de que los dromedarios son un reservorio del virus, pero aún no están del todo claros los modelos exactos de transmisión del MERS-CoV al ser humano. Los autores describen un análisis realizado en febrero de 2014 de la idoneidad y sensibilidad de distintos tipos de muestra para detectar el MERS-CoV mediante una reacción en cadena de la polimerasa acoplada a transcripción inversa en tiempo real (RTPCR) dirigida contra tres genes: el gen UpE (upstream of the E gene: en dirección 5' desde el gen E); el gen N (nucleocápside) y el marco de lectura abierto (ORF) 1a. Para ello se tomaron muestras de 53 animales enviados al sacrificio. Se comprobó que un elevado porcentaje de los dromedarios analizados (un 79% [intervalo de confianza al 95%: 66,9­91,5%; error estándar: 0,0625], esto es, 42 de 53) excretaban virus en el momento del sacrificio, pese a que todos los animales parecían estar sanos. Entre los ejemplares positivos para el MERS-CoV, las muestras que con más frecuencia arrojaban resultado positivo eran los frotis nasales (97,6%). Las segundas, por orden de frecuencia, eran los frotis bucales (35,7%), seguidos de los frotis rectales (28,5%). Además, la carga viral más alta, expresada por un valor de ciclo umbral (Ct) (o punto de cruce) de 11,27, se obtuvo a partir de un frotis nasal. Estos resultados llevan a la conclusión de que los frotis nasales son el tipo de muestra más adaptado para detectar el MERS-CoV en dromedarios aparentemente sanos mediante la técnica de RT-PCR.

Shedding of norovirus in symptomatic and asymptomatic infections.

Norovirus is the most frequent cause of acute infectious gastroenteritis and it is difficult to control in crowded environments like hospitals and nursing homes. Transmission depends on oral intake of virus deposited in the environment by infectious subjects. Data from volunteer studies indicate that virus concentrations in stool are highly variable, but systematic studies of the time-course of shedding and its individual variation are lacking. This paper quantifies norovirus shedding in a large population of 102 subjects, including asymptomatic shedders, and uses a longitudinal model to generalize shedding patterns. Enhanced surveillance for studies of transmission of norovirus in hospital outbreaks has yielded a considerable number of faecal samples from symptomatic and asymptomatic shedders, both from patients and staff. Norovirus concentrations were determined by real-time PCR. A quantitative dynamic model was fitted to the shedding data, in a multilevel Bayesian framework, to study the time-course of shedding and its variation. The results indicate that shedding in asymptomatic subjects is similar to that in symptomatic infections, both showing considerable variation in peak levels (average 105-109 /g faeces) as well as duration of virus shedding (average 8-60 days). Patients appear to shed higher numbers of virus than staff, for slightly longer durations, but the differences are too small to be significant. Given equal shedding, the greater contribution of symptomatic cases to transmission must be caused by their higher efficiency in spreading these viruses. The results of this study will be helpful for risk studies that need to quantify the deposition of virus in the environment.

Laboratory support during and after the Ebola virus endgame: towards a sustained laboratory infrastructure.

The Ebola virus epidemic in West Africa is on the brink of entering a second phase in which the (inter)national efforts to slow down virus transmission will be engaged to end the epidemic. The response community must consider the longevity of their current laboratory support, as it is essential that diagnostic capacity in the affected countries be supported beyond the end of the epidemic. The emergency laboratory response should be used to support building structural diagnostic and outbreak surveillance capacity.

Ross River virus disease in two Dutch travellers returning from Australia, February to April 2015.

We report two cases of Ross River virus (RRV) infection in Dutch travellers who visited Australia during February to April 2015. These cases coincided with the largest recorded outbreak of RRV disease in Australia since 1996. This report serves to create awareness among physicians to consider travel-related RRV disease in differential diagnosis of patients with fever, arthralgia and/or rash returning from the South Pacific area, and to promote awareness among professionals advising travellers to this region.

Emergence of a novel GII.17 norovirus ­ End of the GII.4 era?

In the winter of 2014/15 a novel GII.P17-GII.17 norovirus strain (GII.17 Kawasaki 2014) emerged, as a major cause of gastroenteritis outbreaks in China and Japan. Since their emergence these novel GII.P17-GII.17 viruses have replaced the previously dominant GII.4 genotype Sydney 2012 variant in some areas in Asia but were only detected in a limited number of cases on other continents. This perspective provides an overview of the available information on GII.17 viruses in order to gain insight in the viral and host characteristics of this norovirus genotype. We further discuss the emergence of this novel GII.P17-GII.17 norovirus in context of current knowledge on the epidemiology of noroviruses. It remains to be seen if the currently dominant norovirus strain GII.4 Sydney 2012 will be replaced in other parts of the world. Nevertheless, the public health community and surveillance systems need to be prepared in case of a potential increase of norovirus activity in the next seasons caused by this novel GII.P17-GII.17 norovirus.

Serology in chronic Q fever is still surrounded by question marks.

Detection of antibodies using immunofluoresence tests (IFAT) is recommended for diagnosis of chronic Q fever, but other commercial antibody assays are also available. We compared an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) (Virion/Serion) and a complement fixation test (CFT) (Virion/Serion) for the detection of Coxiella burnetii IgG phase I and IgA phase I in early- and follow-up serum samples from patients with chronic Q fever, diagnosed according to an algorithm that involves IFAT. For this, we tested sera of 49 patients, including 30 proven, 14 probable and five possible chronic Q fever cases. Sensitivity of CFT for diagnosis of chronic Q fever was suboptimal (85 %), as eight patients, including five with chronic Q fever, tested negative at time of diagnosis, whereas IgG phase I antibodies were detected in these five patients by ELISA. Sensitivity of ELISA was higher, although three probable patients were missed. No differences in ELISA IgA phase I detection between proven chronic Q fever and probable were observed; instead possible patients were in majority IgA negative (60 %). Serological examination using ELISA and CFT in follow-up sera from 26 patients on treatment was unsatisfactory. Like IFAT, all kinetic options were possible: decreasing, remaining stable or even increase during time. This study demonstrated that the sensitivity of CFT-based phase I antibody detection is low and therefore not recommended for diagnosis of chronic Q fever. Based on our results, serological follow-up to guide treatment decisions was of limited value.

No evidence for the persistence of Schmallenberg virus in overwintering mosquitoes.

In 2011, Schmallenberg virus (SBV), a novel member of the Simbu serogroup, genus Orthobunyavirus, was identified as the causative agent of a disease in ruminants in Europe. Based on the current knowledge on arthropods involved in the transmission of Simbu group viruses, a role of both midges and mosquitoes in the SBV transmission cycle cannot be excluded beforehand. The persistence of SBV in mosquitoes overwintering at SBV-affected farms in the Netherlands was investigated. No evidence for the presence of SBV in 868 hibernating mosquitoes (Culex, Anopheles, and Culiseta spp., collected from January to March 2012) was found. This suggests that mosquitoes do not play an important role, if any, in the persistence of SBV during the winter months in northwestern Europe.

Preparedness for admission of patients with suspected Ebola virus disease in European hospitals: a survey, August-September 2014.

In response to the Ebola virus disease (EVD) outbreak in West Africa, the World Health Organization has advised all nations to prepare for the detection, investigation and management of confirmed and suspected EVD cases in order to prevent further spread through international travel. To gain insights into the state of preparedness of European hospitals, an electronic survey was circulated in August­September 2014 to 984 medical professionals representing 736 hospitals in 40 countries. The survey addressed the willingness and capacity to admit patients with suspected EVD as well as specific preparedness activities in response to the current Ebola crisis. Evaluable responses were received from representatives of 254 (32%) hospitals in 38 countries, mostly tertiary care centres, of which 46% indicated that they would admit patients with suspected EVD. Patient transfer agreements were in place for the majority of hospitals that would not admit patients. Compared with non-admitting hospitals, admitting hospitals were more frequently engaged in various preparedness activities and more often contained basic infrastructural characteristics such as admission rooms and laboratories considered important for infection control, but some gaps and concerns were also identified. The results of this survey help to provide direction towards further preparedness activities and prioritisation thereof.

The hanta hunting study: underdiagnosis of Puumala hantavirus infections in symptomatic non-travelling leptospirosis-suspected patients in the Netherlands, in 2010 and April to November 2011.

Leptospirosis and haemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) are hard to distinguish clinically since these two important rodent-borne zoonoses share hallmark symptoms such as renal failure and haemorrhage. Leptospirosis is caused by infection with a spirochete while HFRS is the result of an infection with certain hantaviruses. Both diseases are relatively rare in the Netherlands. Increased incidence of HFRS has been observed since 2007 in countries that border the Netherlands. Since a similar rise in incidence has not been registered in the Netherlands, we hypothesise that due to overlapping clinical manifestations, hantavirus infections may be confused with leptospirosis, leading to underdiagnosis. Therefore, we tested a cohort of non-travelling Dutch patients with symptoms compatible with leptospirosis, but with a negative diagnosis, during 2010 and from April to November 2011. Sera were screened with pan-hantavirus IgG and IgM enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays (ELISAs). Sera with IgM reactivity were tested by immunofluorescence assay (IFA). ELISA (IgM positive) and IFA results were confirmed using focus reduction neutralisation tests (FRNTs). We found hantavirus-specific IgG and/or IgM antibodies in 4.3% (11/255) of samples taken in 2010 and in 4.1% (6/146) of the samples during the 2011 period. After FRNT confirmation, seven patients were classed as having acute Puumala virus infections. A review of hantavirus diagnostic requests revealed that at least three of the seven confirmed acute cases as well as seven probable acute cases of hantavirus infection were missed in the Netherlands during the study period.

Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) infections in two returning travellers in the Netherlands, May 2014.

Two patients, returning to the Netherlands from pilgrimage in Medina and Mecca, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, were diagnosed with Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) infection in May 2014. The source and mode of transmission have not yet been determined. Hospital-acquired infection and community-acquired infection are both possible.

Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) RNA and neutralising antibodies in milk collected according to local customs from dromedary camels, Qatar, April 2014.

Antibodies to Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) were detected in serum and milk collected according to local customs from 33 camels in Qatar, April 2014. At one location, evidence for active virus shedding in nasal secretions and/or faeces was observed for 7/12 camels; viral RNA was detected in milk of five of these seven camels. The presence of MERS-CoV RNA in milk of camels actively shedding the virus warrants measures to prevent putative food-borne transmission of MERS-CoV.

Influenza at the animal-human interface: a review of the literature for virological evidence of human infection with swine or avian influenza viruses other than A(H5N1).

Factors that trigger human infection with animal influenza virus progressing into a pandemic are poorly understood. Within a project developing an evidence-based risk assessment framework for influenza viruses in animals, we conducted a review of the literature for evidence of human infection with animal influenza viruses by diagnostic methods used. The review covering Medline, Embase, SciSearch and CabAbstracts yielded 6,955 articles, of which we retained 89; for influenza A(H5N1) and A(H7N9), the official case counts of t he World Health Organization were used. An additional 30 studies were included by scanning the reference lists. Here, we present the findings for confirmed infections with virological evidence. We found reports of 1,419 naturally infected human cases, of which 648 were associated with avian influenza virus (AIV) A(H5N1), 375 with other AIV subtypes, and 396 with swine influenza virus (SIV). Human cases naturally infected with AIV spanned haemagglutinin subtypes H5, H6, H7, H9 and H10. SIV cases were associated with endemic SIV of H1 and H3 subtype descending from North American and Eurasian SIV lineages and various reassortants thereof. Direct exposure to birds or swine was the most likely source of infection for the cases with available information on exposure.

Detection of human enteroviruses and parechoviruses as part of the national enterovirus surveillance in the Netherlands, 1996-2011.

Laboratories of the Dutch Working Group on Clinical Virology have routinely performed enterovirus diagnostics in the Netherlands since the early 1960s, with country-wide coverage. Enterovirus-positive samples are typed for clinical and epidemiological purposes, as well as to document the absence of poliovirus circulation. Human parechoviruses 1 and 2, initially recognized as enteroviruses, and since 2006 also the higher numbered human parechovirus types, have been detected as part of this surveillance. The purpose of this report is to describe the national enterovirus surveillance data from stool specimens collected in the Netherlands between 1996 and 2011 by all the participating laboratories. Since 2007, the average annual percentage of human enterovirus- and parechovirus-positive specimens increased from 6.5 to 10.8% and from 0.3 to 2.5% of the total numbers of specimens tested, respectively, following a gradual implementation of molecular diagnostics directly on clinical samples. Increased detection rates were observed for human enterovirus species A coxsackieviruses (from 0.1 to 0.5%). Human enteroviruses of species B, C, and D were detected at average rates of 4.7, 0.04, and 0.005%, respectively. The introduction of molecular diagnostics also resulted in an increase in the number of untyped enterovirus-positive specimens for which the presence of poliovirus was not excluded (from 1.3 to 3.1% since 2007). To increase knowledge on human entero- and parechovirus epidemiology and type-specific pathogenesis, as well as to warrant the quality of the poliovirus surveillance in the Netherlands, it is of importance to continue the typing of enterovirus- and parechovirus-positive samples.

Targeted screening as a tool for the early detection of chronic Q fever patients after a large outbreak.

In the aftermath of the Dutch Q fever outbreak, an increasing number of patients are being diagnosed with chronic Q fever. Most of these patients are unaware of being infected with Coxiella burnetii, the causative agent of Q fever. To find patients in an earlier, asymptomatic stage, a targeted screening strategy (TSS) for patients with risk factors for chronic Q fever was started in the southeast region of Noord-Brabant. In total, 763 patients were tested using an IgG phase II indirect fluorescent antibody test (IFAT), of which 52 (7 %) patients tested positive. Ten of these 52 patients displayed a chronic Q fever serological profile. All of these 10 patients had a heart valve(s) or (endo-)vascular prosthesis. All except one were asymptomatic. Suggestive signs for chronic infections on positron emission tomography-computed tomography (PET-CT) were demonstrated in 5 (50 %) of these patients. Forty-two out of the 52 patients with a positive screening test showed a past Q fever serological profile. After a year of follow-up (every 3 months), none of these patients showed elevation of antibody titres and no new chronic Q fever patients were found in this group. A targeted screening programme is a useful instrument for detecting patients at risk of developing chronic Q fever.

The estimated disease burden of norovirus in The Netherlands.

Noroviruses are an important cause of acute gastroenteritis in humans. We incorporated new insights gained over the past decade in an updated estimate of the disease burden of (foodborne) norovirus illness in The Netherlands in 2009. The disease outcomes - non-consulting cases, visiting a general practitioner, hospitalization and mortality - and the foodborne proportion were derived from cohort studies, surveillance data and literature. Age-specific incidence estimates were applied to the population age distribution in The Netherlands in 2009. The general population incidence was 3800/100 000 (95% CI 2670­5460), including 0.4 fatal cases/100 000,resulting in 1622 (95% CI 966­2650) disability-adjusted life-years in a population of 16.5 million [corrected].The updated burden of norovirus is over twofold higher than previously estimated, due in particular to the new insights in case-fatality ratios. Results suggest that the burden of norovirus institutional outbreaks is relatively small compared to the burden of community-acquired norovirus infections.