Improved mortality analysis in early-phase dose-ranging clinical trials for emergency medical diseases using Bayesian time-to-event models with active comparators.

Emergency medical diseases (EMDs) are the leading cause of death worldwide. A time-to-death analysis is needed to accurately identify the risks and describe the pattern of an EMD because the mortality rate can peak early and then decline. Dose-ranging Phase II clinical trials are essential for developing new therapies for EMDs. However, most dose-finding trials do not analyze mortality as a time-to-event endpoint. We propose three Bayesian dose-response time-to-event models for a secondary mortality analysis of a clinical trial: a two-group (active treatment vs control) model, a three-parameter sigmoid EMAX model, and a hierarchical EMAX model. The study also incorporates one specific active treatment as an active comparator in constructing three new models. We evaluated the performance of these six models and a very popular independent model using simulated data motivated by a randomized Phase II clinical trial focused on identifying the most effective hyperbaric oxygen dose to achieve favorable functional outcomes in patients with severe traumatic brain injury. The results show that the three-group, EMAX, and EMAX model with an active comparator produce the smallest averaged mean squared errors and smallest mean absolute biases. We provide a new approach for time-to-event analysis in early-phase dose-ranging clinical trials for EMDs. The EMAX model with an active comparator can provide valuable insights into the mortality analysis of new EMDs or other conditions that have changing risks over time. The restricted mean survival time, a function of the model's hazards, is recommended for displaying treatment effects for EMD research.

Relationship Between Posttraumatic Headache and Depression After Mild Traumatic Brain Injury.

OBJECTIVES: Mild traumatic brain injury (mTBI) can lead to psychiatric and somatic symptoms for some patients, including posttraumatic headache (PTH) and depression. This study attempted to further establish the relationship between PTH and depression following mTBI and investigate whether the presence of PTH immediately following injury can identify patients at risk for developing depressive symptoms up to 6 months later. METHODS: This study was a secondary analysis of data from Head Injury Serum Markers for Assessing Response to Trauma (HeadSMART), a prospective study of adult patients in the emergency department with head injury. Participants included 265 patients who met criteria for mTBI and completed the Rivermead Post-Concussion Symptoms Questionnaire, to identify PTH within 24 hours after injury, and the Patient Health Questionnaire-9, to assess depressive symptoms during follow-up. Measures were completed at the initial visit immediately after the injury in the emergency department and at 1-, 3-, and 6-month follow-up visits. RESULTS: Patients with acute PTH (aPTH) at time of injury were more likely to report PTH at 1, 3, and 6 months. They also had more severe depressive symptoms and a greater likelihood of clinically significant depression at all time points. CONCLUSIONS: Patients with aPTH within 24 hours after injury were more likely to report continued symptoms of PTH and clinically significant depression at 1, 3, and 6 months. These findings provide support for using the presence of aPTH in the emergency department following mTBI as an indicator for monitoring persistent PTH and depressive symptoms in the postacute recovery period.

Diagnostic Utility of Glial Fibrillary Acidic Protein Beyond 12 Hours After Traumatic Brain Injury: A TRACK-TBI Study.

Blood levels of glial fibrillary acidic protein (GFAP) and ubiquitin carboxyl-terminal hydrolase-L1 (UCH-L1) within 12h of suspected traumatic brain injury (TBI) have been approved by the Food and Drug administration to aid in determining the need for a brain computed tomography (CT) scan. The current study aimed to determine whether this context of use can be expanded beyond 12h post-TBI in patients presenting with Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) 13-15. The prospective, 18-center Transforming Research and Clinical Knowledge in Traumatic Brain Injury (TRACK-TBI) study enrolled TBI participants aged ≥17 years who presented to a United States Level 1 trauma center and received a clinically indicated brain CT scan within 24h post-injury, a blood draw within 24h and at 14 days for biomarker analysis. Data from participants with emergency department arrival GCS 13-15 and biomarker values at days 1 and 14 were extracted for the primary analysis. A subgroup of hospitalized participants with serial biomarkers at days 1, 3, 5, and 14 were analyzed, including plasma GFAP and UCH-L1, and serum neuron-specific enolase (NSE) and S100 calcium-binding protein B (S100B). The primary analysis compared biomarker values dichotomized by head CT results (CT+/CT-). Area under receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUC) was used to determine diagnostic accuracy. The overall cohort included 1142 participants with initial GCS 13-15, with mean age 39.8 years, 65% male, and 73% Caucasian. The GFAP provided good discrimination in the overall cohort at days 1 (AUC = 0.82) and 14 (AUC = 0.72), and in the hospitalized subgroup at days 1 (AUC = 0.84), 3 (AUC = 0.88), 5 (AUC = 0.82), and 14 (AUC = 0.74). The UCH-L1, NSE, and S100B did not perform well (AUC = 0.51-0.57 across time points). This study demonstrates the utility of GFAP to aid in decision-making for diagnostic brain CT imaging beyond the 12h time frame in patients with TBI who have a GCS 13-15.

Isolated Traumatic Subarachnoid Hemorrhage on Head Computed Tomography Scan May Not Be Isolated: A Transforming Research and Clinical Knowledge in Traumatic Brain Injury Study (TRACK-TBI) Study.

Isolated traumatic subarachnoid hemorrhage (tSAH) after traumatic brain injury (TBI) on head computed tomography (CT) scan is often regarded as a "mild" injury, with reduced need for additional workup. However, tSAH is also a predictor of incomplete recovery and unfavorable outcome. This study aimed to evaluate the characteristics of CT-occult intracranial injuries on brain magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) scan in TBI patients with emergency department (ED) arrival Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) score 13-15 and isolated tSAH on CT. The prospective, 18-center Transforming Research and Clinical Knowledge in Traumatic Brain Injury Study (TRACK-TBI; enrollment years 2014-2019) enrolled participants who presented to the ED and received a clinically-indicated head CT within 24 h of TBI. A subset of TRACK-TBI participants underwent venipuncture within 24 h for plasma glial fibrillary acidic protein (GFAP) analysis, and research MRI at 2-weeks post-injury. In the current study, TRACK-TBI participants age ≥17 years with ED arrival GCS 13-15, isolated tSAH on initial head CT, plasma GFAP level, and 2-week MRI data were analyzed. In 57 participants, median age was 46.0 years [quartile 1 to 3 (Q1-Q3): 34-57] and 52.6% were male. At ED disposition, 12.3% were discharged home, 61.4% were admitted to hospital ward, and 26.3% to intensive care unit. MRI identified CT-occult traumatic intracranial lesions in 45.6% (26 of 57 participants; one additional lesion type: 31.6%; 2 additional lesion types: 14.0%); of these 26 participants with CT-occult intracranial lesions, 65.4% had axonal injury, 42.3% had subdural hematoma, and 23.1% had intracerebral contusion. GFAP levels were higher in participants with CT-occult MRI lesions compared with without (median: 630.6 pg/mL, Q1-Q3: [172.4-941.2] vs. 226.4 [105.8-436.1], p = 0.049), and were associated with axonal injury (no: median 226.7 pg/mL [109.6-435.1], yes: 828.6 pg/mL [204.0-1194.3], p = 0.009). Our results indicate that isolated tSAH on head CT is often not the sole intracranial traumatic injury in GCS 13-15 TBI. Forty-six percent of patients in our cohort (26 of 57 participants) had additional CT-occult traumatic lesions on MRI. Plasma GFAP may be an important biomarker for the identification of additional CT-occult injuries, including axonal injury. These findings should be interpreted cautiously given our small sample size and await validation from larger studies.

Prior traumatic brain injury is a risk factor for in-hospital mortality in moderate to severe traumatic brain injury: a TRACK-TBI cohort study.

Objectives: An estimated 14-23% of patients with traumatic brain injury (TBI) incur multiple lifetime TBIs. The relationship between prior TBI and outcomes in patients with moderate to severe TBI (msTBI) is not well delineated. We examined the associations between prior TBI, in-hospital mortality, and outcomes up to 12 months after injury in a prospective US msTBI cohort. Methods: Data from hospitalized subjects with Glasgow Coma Scale score of 3-12 were extracted from the Transforming Research and Clinical Knowledge in Traumatic Brain Injury Study (enrollment period: 2014-2019). Prior TBI with amnesia or alteration of consciousness was assessed using the Ohio State University TBI Identification Method. Competing risk regressions adjusting for age, sex, psychiatric history, cranial injury and extracranial injury severity examined the associations between prior TBI and in-hospital mortality, with hospital discharged alive as the competing risk. Adjusted HRs (aHR (95% CI)) were reported. Multivariable logistic regressions assessed the associations between prior TBI, mortality, and unfavorable outcome (Glasgow Outcome Scale-Extended score 1-3 (vs. 4-8)) at 3, 6, and 12 months after injury. Results: Of 405 acute msTBI subjects, 21.5% had prior TBI, which was associated with male sex (87.4% vs. 77.0%, p=0.037) and psychiatric history (34.5% vs. 20.7%, p=0.010). In-hospital mortality was 10.1% (prior TBI: 17.2%, no prior TBI: 8.2%, p=0.025). Competing risk regressions indicated that prior TBI was associated with likelihood of in-hospital mortality (aHR=2.06 (1.01-4.22)), but not with hospital discharged alive. Prior TBI was not associated with mortality or unfavorable outcomes at 3, 6, and 12 months. Conclusions: After acute msTBI, prior TBI history is independently associated with in-hospital mortality but not with mortality or unfavorable outcomes within 12 months after injury. This selective association underscores the importance of collecting standardized prior TBI history data early after acute hospitalization to inform risk stratification. Prospective validation studies are needed. Level of evidence: IV. Trial registration number: NCT02119182.

Euglycemic Diabetic Ketoacidosis: Experience with 44 Patients and Comparison to Hyperglycemic Diabetic Ketoacidosis.

Introduction: Euglycemic diabetic ketoacidosis (DKA) (glucose <250 milligrams per deciliter (mg/dL) has increased in recognition since introduction of sodium-glucose co-transporter 2 (SGLT2) inhibitors but remains challenging to diagnose and manage without the hyperglycemia that is otherwise central to diagnosing DKA, and with increased risk for hypoglycemia with insulin use. Our objective was to compare key resource utilization and safety outcomes between patients with euglycemic and hyperglycemic DKA from the same period. Methods: This is a retrospective review of adult emergency department patients in DKA at an academic medical center. Patients were included if they were >18 years old, met criteria for DKA on initial laboratories (pH ≤7.30, serum bicarbonate ≤18 millimoles per liter [mmol/L], anion gap ≥10), and were managed via a standardized DKA order set. Patients were divided into euglycemic (<250 milligrams per deciliter [mg/dL]) vs hyperglycemic (≥250 mg/dL) cohorts by presenting glucose. We extracted and analyzed patient demographics, resource utilization, and safety outcomes. Etiologies of euglycemia were obtained by manual chart review. For comparisons between groups we used independent-group t-tests for continuous variables and chi-squared tests for binary variables, with alpha 0.05. Results: We identified 629 patients with DKA: 44 euglycemic and 585 hyperglycemic. Euglycemic patients had milder DKA on presentation (higher pH and bicarbonate, lower anion gap; P < 0.05) and lower initial glucose (195 vs 561 mg/dL, P < 0.001) and potassium (4.3 vs 5.3 mmol/L, P < 0.001). Etiologies of euglycemia were insulin use prior to arrival (57%), poor oral intake with baseline insulin use (29%), and SGLT2 inhibitor use (14%). Mean time on insulin infusion was shorter for those with euglycemic DKA: 13.5 vs 19.4 hours, P = 0.003. Mean times to first bicarbonate >18 mmol/L and first long-acting insulin were similar. Incidence of hypoglycemia (<70 mg/dL) while on insulin infusion was significantly higher for those with euglycemic DKA (18.2 vs 4.8%, P = 0.02); incidence of hypokalemia (<3.3 mmol/L) was 27.3 vs 19.1% (P = 0.23). Conclusion: Compared to hyperglycemic DKA patients managed in the same protocolized fashion, euglycemic DKA patients were on insulin infusions 5.9 hours less, yet experienced hypoglycemia over three times more frequently. Future work can investigate treatment strategies for euglycemic DKA to minimize adverse events, especially iatrogenic hypoglycemia.

Ultra-highly sensitive cardiac troponin I: Age and sex differences in healthy individuals.

Background: Associations between elevated circulating cardiac troponin I (cTnI) levels and adverse cardiac outcomes were established prior to the ability to measure extremely low levels of cTnI. Immunoassays that achieve precise ultra-highly sensitive quantification of cTnI (u-hs-cTnI) will allow accurate measurement in healthy subjects. We aimed to evaluate the distribution of u-hs-cTnI values measured by (Simoa HD-1 Analyzer, Quanterix Corporation, Lexington, MA) in healthy subjects and characterize relations to sex and age. Methods: Two independent, healthy cohorts (total of 200 women, 200 men) aged 18-86 years were analyzed in duplicate using the u-hs-cTnI Immunoassay. The u-hs-cTnI 99th percentiles were calculated as the upper limits considering a robust estimation against outliers with 90% confidence intervals. The Quanterix immunoassay analytical performance was established and compared to an existing clinical assay (ARCHITECT STAT High Sensitivity Troponin I, Abbott Laboratories, Wiesbaden, Germany). Results: The lower limit of detection of the u-hs-cTnI assay was calculated to be 0.005 ng/L; we accurately quantified u-hs-cTnI in 95% of healthy individuals. The Quanterix immunoassay within overlapping concentrations correlated with the Abbott assay (R2 = 0.932). The calculated combined 99th percentile was 7.94 ng/L (90% Confidence Interval [CI], 5.47-10.52). Women had lower mean u-hs-cTnI concentrations than men under the age of 40 years. The sex-specific 99th percentile for female vs. male individuals was 4.89 ng/L (90%CI, 3.71-6.25) and 10.49 ng/L (90%CI, 5.19-15.06), respectively. Conclusion: The Quanterix immunoassay provides precise quantification in 95% of healthy individuals. Women under the age of 40 years have significantly lower levels of u-hs-cTnI than men.