The role of migration in mutant dynamics in fragmented populations.

Mutant dynamics in fragmented populations have been studied extensively in evolutionary biology. Yet, open questions remain, both experimentally and theoretically. Some of the fundamental properties predicted by models still need to be addressed experimentally. We contribute to this by using a combination of experiments and theory to investigate the role of migration in mutant distribution. In the case of neutral mutants, while the mean frequency of mutants is not influenced by migration, the probability distribution is. To address this empirically, we performed in vitro experiments, where mixtures of GFP-labelled ("mutant") and non-labelled ("wid-type") murine cells were grown in wells (demes), and migration was mimicked via cell transfer from well to well. In the presence of migration, we observed a change in the skewedness of the distribution of the mutant frequencies in the wells, consistent with previous and our own model predictions. In the presence of de novo mutant production, we used modelling to investigate the level at which disadvantageous mutants are predicted to exist, which has implications for the adaptive potential of the population in case of an environmental change. In panmictic populations, disadvantageous mutants can persist around a steady state, determined by the rate of mutant production and the selective disadvantage (selection-mutation balance). In a fragmented system that consists of demes connected by migration, a steady-state persistence of disadvantageous mutants is also observed, which, however, is fundamentally different from the mutation-selection balance and characterized by higher mutant levels. The increase in mutant frequencies above the selection-mutation balance can be maintained in small ( N < N c ) demes as long as the migration rate is sufficiently small. The migration rate above which the mutants approach the selection-mutation balance decays exponentially with N / N c . The observed increase in the mutant numbers is not explained by the change in the effective population size. Implications for evolutionary processes in diseases are discussed, where the pre-existence of disadvantageous drug-resistant mutant cells or pathogens drives the response of the disease to treatments.

A hybrid stochastic-deterministic approach to explore multiple infection and evolution in HIV.

To study viral evolutionary processes within patients, mathematical models have been instrumental. Yet, the need for stochastic simulations of minority mutant dynamics can pose computational challenges, especially in heterogeneous systems where very large and very small sub-populations coexist. Here, we describe a hybrid stochastic-deterministic algorithm to simulate mutant evolution in large viral populations, such as acute HIV-1 infection, and further include the multiple infection of cells. We demonstrate that the hybrid method can approximate the fully stochastic dynamics with sufficient accuracy at a fraction of the computational time, and quantify evolutionary end points that cannot be expressed by deterministic models, such as the mutant distribution or the probability of mutant existence at a given infected cell population size. We apply this method to study the role of multiple infection and intracellular interactions among different virus strains (such as complementation and interference) for mutant evolution. Multiple infection is predicted to increase the number of mutants at a given infected cell population size, due to a larger number of infection events. We further find that viral complementation can significantly enhance the spread of disadvantageous mutants, but only in select circumstances: it requires the occurrence of direct cell-to-cell transmission through virological synapses, as well as a substantial fitness disadvantage of the mutant, most likely corresponding to defective virus particles. This, however, likely has strong biological consequences because defective viruses can carry genetic diversity that can be incorporated into functional virus genomes via recombination. Through this mechanism, synaptic transmission in HIV might promote virus evolvability.

Developmental hematopoietic stem cell variation explains clonal hematopoiesis later in life.

Clonal hematopoiesis becomes increasingly common with age, but its cause is enigmatic because driver mutations are often absent. Serial observations infer weak selection indicating variants are acquired much earlier in life with unexplained initial growth spurts. Here we use fluctuating CpG methylation as a lineage marker to track stem cell clonal dynamics of hematopoiesis. We show, via the shared prenatal circulation of monozygotic twins, that weak selection conferred by stem cell variation created before birth can reliably yield clonal hematopoiesis later in life. Theory indicates weak selection will lead to dominance given enough time and large enough population sizes. Human hematopoiesis satisfies both these conditions. Stochastic loss of weakly selected variants is naturally prevented by the expansion of stem cell lineages during development. The dominance of stem cell clones created before birth is supported by blood fluctuating CpG methylation patterns that exhibit low correlation between unrelated individuals but are highly correlated between many elderly monozygotic twins. Therefore, clonal hematopoiesis driven by weak selection in later life appears to reflect variation created before birth.

Gastrulation-stage gene expression in Nipbl+/- mouse embryos foreshadows the development of syndromic birth defects.

In animal models, Nipbl -deficiency phenocopies gene expression changes and birth defects seen in Cornelia de Lange Syndrome (CdLS), the most common cause of which is Nipbl -haploinsufficiency. Previous studies in Nipbl +/- mice suggested that heart development is abnormal as soon as cardiogenic tissue is formed. To investigate this, we performed single-cell RNA-sequencing on wildtype (WT) and Nipbl +/- mouse embryos at gastrulation and early cardiac crescent stages. Nipbl +/- embryos had fewer mesoderm cells than WT and altered proportions of mesodermal cell subpopulations. These findings were associated with underexpression of genes implicated in driving specific mesodermal lineages. In addition, Nanog was found to be overexpressed in all germ layers, and many gene expression changes observed in Nipbl +/- embryos could be attributed to Nanog overexpression. These findings establish a link between Nipbl -deficiency, Nanog overexpression, and gene expression dysregulation/lineage misallocation, which ultimately manifest as birth defects in Nipbl +/- animals and CdLS. Teaser: Gene expression changes during gastrulation of Nipbl -deficient mice shed light on early origins of structural birth defects.

Gastrulation-stage gene expression in Nipbl+/- mouse embryos foreshadows the development of syndromic birth defects.

In animal models, Nipbl deficiency phenocopies gene expression changes and birth defects seen in Cornelia de Lange syndrome, the most common cause of which is Nipbl haploinsufficiency. Previous studies in Nipbl+/- mice suggested that heart development is abnormal as soon as cardiogenic tissue is formed. To investigate this, we performed single-cell RNA sequencing on wild-type and Nipbl+/- mouse embryos at gastrulation and early cardiac crescent stages. Nipbl+/- embryos had fewer mesoderm cells than wild-type and altered proportions of mesodermal cell subpopulations. These findings were associated with underexpression of genes implicated in driving specific mesodermal lineages. In addition, Nanog was found to be overexpressed in all germ layers, and many gene expression changes observed in Nipbl+/- embryos could be attributed to Nanog overexpression. These findings establish a link between Nipbl deficiency, Nanog overexpression, and gene expression dysregulation/lineage misallocation, which ultimately manifest as birth defects in Nipbl+/- animals and Cornelia de Lange syndrome.

A new Neu-a syngeneic model of spontaneously metastatic HER2-positive breast cancer.

Metastatic disease results from the dissemination of tumor cells beyond their organ of origin to grow in distant organs and is the primary cause of death in patients with advanced breast cancer. Preclinical murine models in which primary tumors spontaneously metastasize are valuable tools for studying metastatic progression and novel cancer treatment combinations. Here, we characterize a novel syngeneic murine breast tumor cell line that provides a model of spontaneously metastatic neu-expressing breast cancer with quicker onset of widespread metastases after orthotopic mammary implantation in immune-competent NeuN mice. The NT2.5-lung metastasis (-LM) cell line was derived from serial passaging of tumor cells that were macro-dissected from spontaneous lung metastases after orthotopic mammary implantation of parental NT2.5 cells. Within one week of NT2.5-LM implantation, metastases are observed in the lungs. Within four weeks, metastases are also observed in the bones, spleen, colon, and liver. We demonstrate that NT2.5-LM metastases are positive for NeuN-the murine equivalent of human epidermal growth factor 2 (HER2). We further demonstrate altered expression of markers of epithelial-to-mesenchymal transition (EMT), suggestive of their enhanced metastatic potential. Genomic analyses support these findings and reveal enrichment in EMT-regulating pathways. In addition, the metastases are rapidly growing, proliferative, and responsive to HER2-directed therapy. The new NT2.5-LM model provides certain advantages over the parental NT2/NT2.5 model, given its more rapid and spontaneous development of metastases. Besides investigating mechanisms of metastatic progression, this new model may be used for the rationalized development of novel therapeutic interventions and assessment of therapeutic responses.

Mimicking the breast metastatic microenvironment: characterization of a novel syngeneic model of HER2+ breast cancer.

Preclinical murine models in which primary tumors spontaneously metastasize to distant organs are valuable tools to study metastatic progression and novel cancer treatment combinations. Here, we characterize a novel syngeneic murine breast tumor cell line, NT2.5-lung metastasis (-LM), that provides a model of spontaneously metastatic neu-expressing breast cancer with quicker onset of widespread metastases after orthotopic mammary implantation in immune-competent NeuN mice. Within one week of orthotopic implantation of NT2.5-LM in NeuN mice, distant metastases can be observed in the lungs. Within four weeks, metastases are also observed in the bones, spleen, colon, and liver. Metastases are rapidly growing, proliferative, and responsive to HER2-directed therapy. We demonstrate altered expression of markers of epithelial-to-mesenchymal transition (EMT) and enrichment in EMT-regulating pathways, suggestive of their enhanced metastatic potential. The new NT2.5-LM model provides more rapid and spontaneous development of widespread metastases. Besides investigating mechanisms of metastatic progression, this new model may be used for the rationalized development of novel therapeutic interventions and assessment of therapeutic responses targeting distant visceral metastases.

Myeloid-Derived Suppressor-Cell Dynamics Control Outcomes in the Metastatic Niche.

Myeloid-derived suppressor cells (MDSC) play a prominent role in the tumor microenvironment. A quantitative understanding of the tumor-MDSC interactions that influence disease progression is critical, and currently lacking. We developed a mathematical model of metastatic growth and progression in immune-rich tumor microenvironments. We modeled the tumor-immune dynamics with stochastic delay differential equations and studied the impact of delays in MDSC activation/recruitment on tumor growth outcomes. In the lung environment, when the circulating level of MDSCs was low, the MDSC delay had a pronounced impact on the probability of new metastatic establishment: blocking MDSC recruitment could reduce the probability of metastasis by as much as 50%. To predict patient-specific MDSC responses, we fit to the model individual tumors treated with immune checkpoint inhibitors via Bayesian parameter inference. We reveal that control of the inhibition rate of natural killer (NK) cells by MDSCs had a larger influence on tumor outcomes than controlling the tumor growth rate directly. Posterior classification of tumor outcomes demonstrates that incorporating knowledge of the MDSC responses improved predictive accuracy from 63% to 82%. Investigation of the MDSC dynamics in an environment low in NK cells and abundant in cytotoxic T cells revealed, in contrast, that small MDSC delays no longer impacted metastatic growth dynamics. Our results illustrate the importance of MDSC dynamics in the tumor microenvironment overall and predict interventions promoting shifts toward less immune-suppressed states. We propose that there is a pressing need to consider MDSCs more often in analyses of tumor microenvironments.

Quantifying the dynamics of viral recombination during free virus and cell-to-cell transmission in HIV-1 infection.

Recombination has been shown to contribute to human immunodeficiency virus-1 (HIV-1) evolution in vivo, but the underlying dynamics are extremely complex, depending on the nature of the fitness landscapes and of epistatic interactions. A less well-studied determinant of recombinant evolution is the mode of virus transmission in the cell population. HIV-1 can spread by free virus transmission, resulting largely in singly infected cells, and also by direct cell-to-cell transmission, resulting in the simultaneous infection of cells with multiple viruses. We investigate the contribution of these two transmission pathways to recombinant evolution, by applying mathematical models to in vitro experimental data on the growth of fluorescent reporter viruses under static conditions (where both transmission pathways operate), and under gentle shaking conditions, where cell-to-cell transmission is largely inhibited. The parameterized mathematical models are then used to extrapolate the viral evolutionary dynamics beyond the experimental settings. Assuming a fixed basic reproductive ratio of the virus (independent of transmission pathway), we find that recombinant evolution is fastest if virus spread is driven only by cell-to-cell transmission and slows down if both transmission pathways operate. Recombinant evolution is slowest if all virus spread occurs through free virus transmission. This is due to cell-to-cell transmission 1, increasing infection multiplicity; 2, promoting the co-transmission of different virus strains from cell to cell; and 3, increasing the rate at which point mutations are generated as a result of more reverse transcription events. This study further resulted in the estimation of various parameters that characterize these evolutionary processes. For example, we estimate that during cell-to-cell transmission, an average of three viruses successfully integrated into the target cell, which can significantly raise the infection multiplicity compared to free virus transmission. In general, our study points towards the importance of infection multiplicity and cell-to-cell transmission for HIV evolution.

Effect of synaptic cell-to-cell transmission and recombination on the evolution of double mutants in HIV.

Recombination in HIV infection can impact virus evolution in vivo in complex ways, as has been shown both experimentally and mathematically. The effect of free virus versus synaptic, cell-to-cell transmission on the evolution of double mutants, however, has not been investigated. Here, we do so by using a stochastic agent-based model. Consistent with data, we assume spatial constraints for synaptic but not for free-virus transmission. Two important effects of the viral spread mode are observed: (i) for disadvantageous mutants, synaptic transmission protects against detrimental effects of recombination on double mutant persistence. Under free virus transmission, recombination increases double mutant levels for negative epistasis, but reduces them for positive epistasis. This reduction for positive epistasis is much diminished under predominantly synaptic transmission, and recombination can, in fact, lead to increased mutant levels. (ii) The mode of virus spread also directly influences the evolutionary fate of double mutants. For disadvantageous mutants, double mutant production is the predominant driving force, and hence synaptic transmission leads to highest double mutant levels due to increased transmission efficiency. For advantageous mutants, double mutant spread is the most important force, and hence free virus transmission leads to fastest invasion due to better mixing. For neutral mutants, both production and spread of double mutants are important, and hence an optimal mixture of free virus and synaptic transmission maximizes double mutant fractions. Therefore, both free virus and synaptic transmission can enhance or delay double mutant evolution. Implications for drug resistance in HIV are discussed.