RESUMO
BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: To compare the discrimination power of PROFUND and PALIAR indexes for predicting mortality in polypathological patients with advanced non-oncologic chronic disease. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Prospective multicentre cohort study. We included polypathological patients with advanced non-oncologic chronic disease, who were admitted to internal medicine departments between July 1st and December 31th, 2014. Data was collected from each patient on age, sex, categories of polypathology, advanced disease, comorbidity, functional and cognitive assessment, terminal illness symptoms, need for caregiver, hospitalisation in the past three and 12 months and number of drugs. We calculated the PROFUND and PALIAR indexes and conducted a 12-month follow-up. We assessed mortality with the Kaplan-Meier survival curves and the discrimination of indexes with the ROC curves. RESULTS: We included 213 patients with a mean (standard deviation) age of 83.0 (7.0) years, 106 (49.8%) of whom were female. Mortality at six months was 40.4% and at 12 months 50.2%. Deceased patients scored higher scores on the PROFUND [11.2(4.2) vs 8.5(3.9); P<.001] and PALIAR [6.7 (4.6) vs 3.6(3.1); p<0,001] indexes. The discrimination of PALIAR index at six months (under the curve area 0.734 95%CI 0.665-0.803) was higher than of PROFUND, and there was no difference at 12 months. CONCLUSIONS: In polypathological patients with advanced non-oncologic chronic disease, the PALIAR index had better discrimination power than PROFUND index at 66 months and there were no differences at 12 months.
Assuntos
Doença Crônica , Índice de Gravidade de Doença , Idoso , Idoso de 80 Anos ou mais , Doença Crônica/mortalidade , Comorbidade , Grupos Diagnósticos Relacionados , Feminino , Seguimentos , Humanos , Estimativa de Kaplan-Meier , Masculino , Polimedicação , Prognóstico , Curva ROC , Avaliação de SintomasRESUMO
OBJECTIVE: To determine the usefullness of the PROFUND index to assess the risk of global death after 4 years in polypathological patients. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Multicenter prospective cohort (Internal Medicine and Geriatrics) study. Polypathological patients admitted between March 1st and June 30th 2011 were included. For each patient, data concerning age, sex, living at home or in a nursing residence, polypathology categories, Charlson, Barthel and Lawton-Brody indexes, Pfeiffer questionnaire, socio-familial Gijon scale, delirium, number of drugs, hemoglobin and creatinine values were gathered, and the PROFUND index was calculated. The follow-up lasted 4 years. RESULTS: We included 441 patients, 324 from Internal Medicine and 117 from Geriatrics, with a mean age of 80.9 (8.7) years. Of them, 245 (55.6%) were women. Heart (62.7%), neurological (41.4%) and respiratory (37.3%) diseases were the most frequent. Geriatrics inpatients were older and more dependants and presented greater cognitive deterioration. After 4 years, 335 (76%) patients died. Mortality was associated with age, dyspnoea, Barthel index<60, delirium, advanced neoplasia and≥4 admissions in the last year. The area under the curve of the PROFUND index was 0.748, 95% CI 0.689-0.806, P<.001 in Internal Medicine and 0.517, 95% CI 0.369-0.666, P=.818 in Geriatrics patients, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The PROFUND index is a reliable tool for predicting long-term global mortality in polypathological patients from Internal Medicine but not from Geriatrics departments.