Lack of detection of SARS-CoV-2 in British wildlife 2020-21 and first description of a stoat (Mustela erminea) Minacovirus.

Repeat spillover of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) into new hosts has highlighted the critical role of cross-species transmission of coronaviruses and establishment of new reservoirs of virus in pandemic and epizootic spread of coronaviruses. Species particularly susceptible to SARS-CoV-2 spillover include Mustelidae (mink, ferrets and related animals), cricetid rodents (hamsters and related animals), felids (domestic cats and related animals) and white-tailed deer. These predispositions led us to screen British wildlife with sarbecovirus-specific quantitative PCR and pan coronavirus PCR assays for SARS-CoV-2 using samples collected during the human pandemic to establish if widespread spillover was occurring. Fourteen wildlife species (n=402) were tested, including: two red foxes (Vulpes vulpes), 101 badgers (Meles meles), two wild American mink (Neogale vison), 41 pine marten (Martes martes), two weasels (Mustela nivalis), seven stoats (Mustela erminea), 108 water voles (Arvicola amphibius), 39 bank voles (Myodes glareolous), 10 field voles (Microtus agrestis), 15 wood mice (Apodemus sylvaticus), one common shrew (Sorex aranaeus), two pygmy shrews (Sorex minutus), two hedgehogs (Erinaceus europaeus) and 75 Eurasian otters (Lutra lutra). No cases of SARS-CoV-2 were detected in any animals, but a novel minacovirus related to mink and ferret alphacoronaviruses was detected in stoats recently introduced to the Orkney Islands. This group of viruses is of interest due to pathogenicity in ferrets. The impact of this virus on the health of stoat populations remains to be established.

Reproductive performance of Peregrine falcons relative to the use of organochlorine pesticides, 1946-2021.

Populations of some fish- and meat-eating birds suffered dramatic declines globally following the introduction of organochlorine pesticides during the late 1940s and 1950s. It has been hypothesised that these population declines during the 1950s-1970s were largely driven by a combination of reproductive failure due to eggshell-thinning, egg breakage and embryonic death attributable to DDT and its metabolites, and to enhanced mortality attributable to the more toxic cyclodiene compounds such as aldrin and dieldrin. Using 75 years (1946-2021) of Peregrine falcon (Falco peregrinus) monitoring data (315 unique nest-sites monitored for 6110 nest-years), we studied the breeding performance of a resident Peregrine population in southern Scotland relative to the spatiotemporal pattern of organochlorine pesticide use. We show that (i) Peregrine breeding success and measures of breeding performance increased substantially following the reduction in, and subsequently a complete ban on, the use of organochlorine pesticides; (ii) improvements in Peregrine breeding performance were more dramatic in southeastern Scotland where agriculture was the predominant land use than in southwestern Scotland where there was less arable and more forested land; (iii) Peregrines nesting closer to the coast generally had higher fledging success (that is, a higher proportion of clutches that produced at least one fledgeling) than those nesting inland farther away from the coast; (iv) low temperatures and excessive rain in May negatively affected Peregrine fledging success; and (v) Peregrine abundance increased in parallel with improvements in reproductive performance following the reduction and then complete ban on the use of organochlorine pesticides in the UK. However, recovery was gradual and occurred over four decades, and rate of recovery varied among measures of reproductive performance (egg, nestling and fledgeling production). Our results suggest that the temporal pattern of organochlorine pesticide use strongly influenced Peregrine reproductive parameters but that the pattern of influence differed regionally. Overall results are consistent with the hypothesis that reproductive failure caused by organochlorine pesticides was an important driver of the decline in the south Scottish Peregrine population, and that improvements in all measures of breeding performance following a reduction and eventual ban on organochlorine use facilitated the observed increase in this population.

Patterns and drivers of vector-borne microparasites in a classic metapopulation.

Many organisms live in fragmented populations, which has profound consequences on the dynamics of associated parasites. Metapopulation theory offers a canonical framework for predicting the effects of fragmentation on spatiotemporal host­parasite dynamics. However, empirical studies of parasites in classical metapopulations remain rare, particularly for vector-borne parasites. Here, we quantify spatiotemporal patterns and possible drivers of infection probability for several ectoparasites (fleas, Ixodes trianguliceps and Ixodes ricinus) and vector-borne microparasites (Babesia microti, Bartonella spp., Hepatozoon spp.) in a classically functioning metapopulation of water vole hosts. Results suggest that the relative importance of vector or host dynamics on microparasite infection probabilities is related to parasite life-histories. Bartonella, a microparasite with a fast life-history, was positively associated with both host and vector abundances at several spatial and temporal scales. In contrast, B. microti, a tick-borne parasite with a slow life-history, was only associated with vector dynamics. Further, we provide evidence that life-history shaped parasite dynamics, including occupancy and colonization rates, in the metapopulation. Lastly, our findings were consistent with the hypothesis that landscape connectivity was determined by distance-based dispersal of the focal hosts. We provide essential empirical evidence that contributes to the development of a comprehensive theory of metapopulation processes of vector-borne parasites.

Predicting the impact of invasive trees from different measures of abundance.

Biological invasions produce negative impacts worldwide, causing massive economic costs and ecological impacts. Knowing the relationship between invasive species abundance and the magnitude of their impacts (abundance-impact curves) is critical to designing prevention and management strategies that effectively tackle these impacts. However, different measures of abundance may produce different abundance-impact curves. Woody plants are among the most transformative invaders, especially in grassland ecosystems because of the introduction of hitherto absent life forms. In this study, our first goal was to assess the impact of a woody invader, Pinus contorta (hereafter pine), on native grassland productivity and livestock grazing in Patagonia (Argentina), building abundance-impact curves. Our second goal, was to compare different measure of pine abundance (density, basal area and canopy cover) as predictors of pine's impact on grassland productivity. Our third goal, was to compare abundance-impact curves among the mentioned measures of pine abundance and among different measures of impact: total grassland productivity, palatable productivity and sheep stocking rate (the number of sheep that the grassland can sustainably support). Pine canopy cover, closely followed by basal area, was the measure of abundance that best explained the impact on grassland productivity, but the shape of abundance impact curves differed between measures of abundance. While increases in pine density and basal area always reduced grassland productivity, pine canopy cover below 30% slightly increased grassland productivity and higher values caused an exponential decline. This increase in grassland productivity with low levels of pine canopy cover could be explained by the amelioration of stressful abiotic conditions for grassland species. Different measures of impact, namely total productivity, palatable productivity and sheep stocking rate, drew very similar results. Our abundance-impact curves are key to guide the management of invasive pines because a proper assessment of how many invasive individuals (per surface unit) are unacceptable, according to environmental or economic impact thresholds, is fundamental to define when to start management actions.

From pattern to process? Dual travelling waves, with contrasting propagation speeds, best describe a self-organised spatio-temporal pattern in population growth of a cyclic rodent.

The dynamics of cyclic populations distributed in space result from the relative strength of synchronising influences and the limited dispersal of destabilising factors (activators and inhibitors), known to cause multi-annual population cycles. However, while each of these have been well studied in isolation, there is limited empirical evidence of how the processes of synchronisation and activation-inhibition act together, largely owing to the scarcity of datasets with sufficient spatial and temporal scale and resolution. We assessed a variety of models that could be underlying the spatio-temporal pattern, designed to capture both theoretical and empirical understandings of travelling waves using large-scale (>35,000 km2 ), multi-year (2011-2017) field monitoring data on abundances of common vole (Microtus arvalis), a cyclic agricultural rodent pest. We found most support for a pattern formed from the summation of two radial travelling waves with contrasting speeds that together describe population growth rates across the region.

Restoring vertebrate predator populations can provide landscape-scale biological control of established invasive vertebrates: Insights from pine marten recovery in Europe.

Invasive species pose one of the greatest global threats to biodiversity. There has been a long history of importing coevolved natural enemies to act as biological control agents to try to suppress densities of invasive species, with historically limited success and frequent adverse impacts on native biodiversity. Our understanding of the processes and drivers of successful biological control has been focussed on invertebrates and is evidently limited and potentially ill-suited with respect to biological control of vertebrate populations. The restoration of native vertebrate predator populations provides a promising nature-based solution for slowing, halting, or even reversing the spread of some invasive vertebrates over spatial scales relevant to the management of wildlife populations. Here, we first review the growing literature and data from the pine marten-red and grey squirrel system in Europe. We synthesise a multi-decadal dataset to show that the recovery of a native predator has resulted in rapid, landscape-scale declines of an established invasive species. We then use the model system, predator-prey interaction theory, and examples from the literature to develop ecological theory relating to natural biological control in vertebrates and evolutionary processes in native-invasive predator-prey interactions. We find support for the hypotheses that evolutionary naivety of invasive species to native predators and lack of local refuges results in higher predation of naive compared to coevolved prey. We apply lessons learnt from the marten-squirrel model system to examine the plausibility of specific native predator solutions to some of the Earth's most devastating invasive vertebrates. Given the evidence, we conclude that depletion of vertebrate predator populations has increased ecosystem vulnerability to invasions and thus facilitated the spread of invasive species. Therefore, restoration of vertebrate predator populations is an underappreciated, fundamental, nature-based solution to the crisis of invasive species and should be a priority for vertebrate invasive species management globally.

Spatiotemporal connectivity dynamics in spatially structured populations.

Connectivity is a fundamental concept linking dispersal to the emergent dynamics and persistence of spatially structured populations. Functional measures of connectivity typically seek to integrate aspects of landscape structure and animal movement to describe ecologically meaningful connectedness at the landscape and population scale. Despite this focus on function, traditional measures of landscape connectivity assume it is a static property of the landscape, hence abstracting out the underlying spatiotemporal population dynamics. Connectivity is, arguably, a dynamic property of landscapes, and is inherently related to the spatial distribution of individuals and populations across the landscape. Static representations of connectivity potentially overlook this variation and therefore adopting a dynamic approach should offer improved insights about connectivity and associated ecological processes. Using a large-scale, long-term time series of occupancy data from a metapopulation of water voles Arvicola amphibius, we tested competing hypotheses about how considering the dynamic nature of connectivity improves the ability of spatially explicit occupancy models to recover population dynamics. Iteratively relaxing standing assumptions of connectivity metrics, these models ranged from spatially and temporally fixed connectivity metrics that are widely applied, to the more flexible, but lesser used model that allowed temporally varying connectivity measures that incorporate spatiotemporally dynamic patch occupancy states. Our results provide empirical evidence that demographic weighting using patch occupancy dynamics and temporal variability in connectivity measures are important for describing metapopulation dynamics. We highlight the implications of commonly held assumption in connectivity modelling and demonstrate how they result in different and highly variable predictions of metapopulation capacity. Thus, we argue that the concept of connectivity and its potential applications would benefit from recognizing inherent spatiotemporal variation in connectivity that is explicitly linked to underlying ecological state variables.

Identifying Priorities, Targets, and Actions for the Long-term Social and Ecological Management of Invasive Non-Native Species.

Formulating effective management plans for addressing the impacts of invasive non-native species (INNS) requires the definition of clear priorities and tangible targets, and the recognition of the plurality of societal values assigned to these species. These tasks require a multi-disciplinary approach and the involvement of stakeholders. Here, we describe procedures to integrate multiple sources of information to formulate management priorities, targets, and high-level actions for the management of INNS. We follow five good-practice criteria: justified, evidence-informed, actionable, quantifiable, and flexible. We used expert knowledge methods to compile 17 lists of ecological, social, and economic impacts of lodgepole pines (Pinus contorta) and American mink (Neovison vison) in Chile and Argentina, the privet (Ligustrum lucidum) in Argentina, the yellow-jacket wasp (Vespula germanica) in Chile, and grasses (Urochloa brizantha and Urochloa decumbens) in Brazil. INNS plants caused a greater number of impacts than INNS animals, although more socio-economic impacts were listed for INNS animals than for plants. These impacts were ranked according to their magnitude and level of confidence on the information used for the ranking to prioritise impacts and assign them one of four high-level actions-do nothing, monitor, research, and immediate active management. We showed that it is possible to formulate management priorities, targets, and high-level actions for a variety of INNS and with variable levels of available information. This is vital in a world where the problems caused by INNS continue to increase, and there is a parallel growth in the implementation of management plans to deal with them.

Proximate causes and fitness consequences of double brooding in female barn owls.

Multiple brooding, reproducing twice or more per year, is an important component of life-history strategies. However, what proximate factors drive the frequency of multiple brooding and its fitness consequences for parents and offspring remains poorly known. Using long-term longitudinal data, we investigated double brooding in a barn owl population in France. We assessed the effects of both extrinsic and intrinsic factors and the consequences of double brooding on fledgling recruitment and female lifetime reproductive success. The occurrence of double brooding in the population, ranging from 0 to 87%, was positively related to the number of rodent prey stored at the nest. Females laying early in the season were more likely to breed twice and the probability of double brooding increased with smaller initial brood size, female age and the storage of wood mice at the nest early in the season. Fledglings from first broods recruited more often (8.2%) than those from single broods (3.8%) or second broods (3.3%), but this was primarily the consequence of laying dates, not brood type per se. Females producing two broods within a year, at least once in their lifetime, had higher lifetime reproductive success and produced more local recruits than females that did not (15.6 ± 8.1 vs. 6.1 ± 3.8 fledglings, 0.96 ± 1.2 vs. 0.24 ± 0.6 recruits). Our results suggests that the fitness benefits of double brooding exceed costs and that within-year variability in double brooding may be related to heterogeneity in individual/territory quality.

On the merits and pitfalls of introducing a digital platform to aid conservation management: Volunteer data submission and the mediating role of volunteer coordinators.

Against a backdrop of accelerating digital innovation in nature conservation and environmental management, a real-world experiment was conducted with the research aims of assessing: 1) the effects of introducing a digital data-entry platform on volunteer data submission; and 2) the extent to which coordinators influence digital platform use by their volunteers. We focussed on a large-scale volunteer-based initiative aimed at eradicating the non-native American mink (Neovison vison) from northern Scotland. This geographically dispersed conservation initiative adopted a digital platform that allowed volunteers to submit records to a central database. We found that the platform had a direct and positive effect on volunteer data submission behaviour, increasing both the number and frequency of submissions. However, our analysis revealed striking differences in coordinator engagement with the platform, which in turn influenced the engagement of volunteers with this centrally introduced digital innovation. As a consequence, the intended organisation-wide rolling out of a digital platform translated into a diversely-implemented innovation, limiting the efficacy of the tool and revealing key challenges for digital innovation in geographically-dispersed conservation initiatives.

Zoonotic pathogens in fluctuating common vole (Microtus arvalis) populations: occurrence and dynamics.

Diseases and host dynamics are linked, but their associations may vary in strength, be time-lagged, and depend on environmental influences. Where a vector is involved in disease transmission, its dynamics are an additional influence, and we often lack a general understanding on how diseases, hosts and vectors interact. We report on the occurrence of six zoonotic arthropod-borne pathogens (Anaplasma, Bartonella, Borrelia, Coxiella, Francisella and Rickettsia) in common voles (Microtus arvalis) throughout a population fluctuation and how their prevalence varies according to host density, seasonality and vector prevalence. We detected Francisella tularensis and four species of Bartonella, but not Anaplasma, Borrelia, Coxiella or Rickettsia. Bartonella taylorii and B. grahamii prevalence increased and decreased with current host (vole and mice) density, respectively, and increased with flea prevalence. Bartonella doshiae prevalence decreased with mice density. These three Bartonella species were also more prevalent during winter. Bartonella rochalimae prevalence varied with current and previous vole density (delayed-density dependence), but not with season. Coinfection with F. tularensis and Bartonella occurred as expected from the respective prevalence of each disease in voles. Our results highlight that simultaneously considering pathogen, vector and host dynamics provide a better understanding of the epidemiological dynamics of zoonoses in farmland rodents.

Unintentional effects of environmentally-friendly farming practices: Arising conflicts between zero-tillage and a crop pest, the common vole (Microtus arvalis).

Common voles are a main European facultative, fossorial, farmland rodent pest that can greatly reduce crop yields during population outbreaks. Crop protection against common voles is a complex task that requires the consideration of a set of preventive and control measures within an integrated pest management strategy. A possible option could be to modify farming practices to reduce the availability of refuges for rodents and the damage to crops that they subsequently cause. Farming, however, must simultaneously meet multiple goals including the reduction of the carbon (C) emissions, soil erosion and water use, and the improvement of soil quality. Crop establishment through conservation agriculture strategies, like zero-tillage, would reduce crop management investment, but is also promoted in many regions to reduce C emissions and increase soil organic matter. It could, however, create favourable refuge habitats for fossorial rodent crop pests, like common voles, benefitting from reduced soil disturbance between crop rotations and thus increasing burrow persistence. Assessing the impact that tillage practices, their interaction with different crops and the influence of proximity to potential common vole sources, have on common vole occupancy could provide a valuable tool within an integrated management strategy. Using a 2-ha experimental field with 62 plots 180 m2 (each roughly matching common vole home range size) located experimental plots in north-western Spain, we tested how tillage practices, crop type (wheat, barley, vetch, Narbonne vetch, pea and fallow) and distances from possible colonization sources affect field use by common vole during low population density conditions. Our results show that tillage practices have more influence on common vole occurrence (zero tillage > reduced and conventional tillage) than other aspects such as crop type thus supporting the hypothesis that tillage practices play a key role in common vole habitat use.

Empowered communities or "cheap labour"? Engaging volunteers in the rationalised management of invasive alien species in Great Britain.

Volunteers are increasingly involved in the delivery of nature conservation policies, usually supported by a twofold rationale: volunteering can (a) enhance citizen participation in environmental governance and (b) ensure a workforce is in place to support conservation work in times of budget shortages. Here, we ask how these two rationales correspond to volunteers' own motivations to engage in a specific nature conservation activity, namely the control of invasive alien species (IAS). We use qualitative interviews with professional project managers, local group leaders, and volunteers to examine the interactions between policies aiming to rationalise the management of IAS and the motivations for and goals of volunteer engagement. Our findings suggest that although volunteering can lead to positive conservation outcomes, satisfying experiences and empowerment, the different interests do not always align in practice. We investigate the implications of strategies that aim to improve the efficiency of invasive species and volunteer management, and discuss organisational arrangements that reconcile different objectives.

The enemy of my enemy is my friend: native pine marten recovery reverses the decline of the red squirrel by suppressing grey squirrel populations.

Shared enemies may instigate or modify competitive interactions between species. The dis-equilibrium caused by non-native species introductions has revealed that the outcome of such indirect interactions can often be dramatic. However, studies of enemy-mediated competition mostly consider the impact of a single enemy, despite species being embedded in complex networks of interactions. Here, we demonstrate that native red and invasive grey squirrels in Britain, two terrestrial species linked by resource and disease-mediated apparent competition, are also now linked by a second enemy-mediated relationship involving a shared native predator recovering from historical persecution, the European pine marten. Through combining spatial capture-recapture techniques to estimate pine marten density, and squirrel site-occupancy data, we find that the impact of exposure to predation is highly asymmetrical, with non-native grey squirrel occupancy strongly negatively affected by exposure to pine martens. By contrast, exposure to pine marten predation has an indirect positive effect on red squirrel populations. Pine marten predation thus reverses the well-documented outcome of resource and apparent competition between red and grey squirrels.

"Got rats?" Global environmental costs of thirst for milk include acute biodiversity impacts linked to dairy feed production.

Rodents damaging alfalfa crops typically destined for export to booming Eastern markets often cause economical losses to farmers, but management interventions attempting to control rodents (i.e., use of rodenticides) are themselves damaging to biodiversity. These damages resonate beyond dairy feed producing regions through animal migration and are an overlooked part of the transferred environmental burden caused by a growing thirst for milk in China and elsewhere.

Boom-bust dynamics in biological invasions: towards an improved application of the concept.

Boom-bust dynamics - the rise of a population to outbreak levels, followed by a dramatic decline - have been associated with biological invasions and offered as a reason not to manage troublesome invaders. However, boom-bust dynamics rarely have been critically defined, analyzed, or interpreted. Here, we define boom-bust dynamics and provide specific suggestions for improving the application of the boom-bust concept. Boom-bust dynamics can arise from many causes, some closely associated with invasions, but others occurring across a wide range of ecological settings, especially when environmental conditions are changing rapidly. As a result, it is difficult to infer cause or predict future trajectories merely by observing the dynamic. We use tests with simulated data to show that a common metric for detecting and describing boom-bust dynamics, decline from an observed peak to a subsequent trough, tends to severely overestimate the frequency and severity of busts, and should be used cautiously if at all. We review and test other metrics that are better suited to describe boom-bust dynamics. Understanding the frequency and importance of boom-bust dynamics requires empirical studies of large, representative, long-term data sets that use clear definitions of boom-bust, appropriate analytical methods, and careful interpretations.

Density-Dependent Prevalence of Francisella tularensis in Fluctuating Vole Populations, Northwestern Spain.

Tularemia in humans in northwestern Spain is associated with increases in vole populations. Prevalence of infection with Francisella tularensis in common voles increased to 33% during a vole population fluctuation. This finding confirms that voles are spillover agents for zoonotic outbreaks. Ecologic interactions associated with tularemia prevention should be considered.

Food availability and predation risk, rather than intrinsic attributes, are the main factors shaping the reproductive decisions of a long-lived predator.

Deciphering the causes of variation in reproductive success is a fundamental issue in ecology, as the number of offspring produced is an important driver of individual fitness and population dynamics. Little is known, however, about how different factors interact to drive variation in reproduction, such as whether an individual's response to extrinsic conditions (e.g. food availability or predation) varies according to its intrinsic attributes (e.g. age, previous allocation of resources towards reproduction). We used 29 years of reproductive data from marked female tawny owls and natural variation in food availability (field vole) and predator abundance (northern goshawk) to quantify the extent to which extrinsic and intrinsic factors interact to influence owl reproductive traits (breeding propensity, clutch size and nest abandonment). Extrinsic and intrinsic factors appeared to interact to affect breeding propensity (which accounted for 83% of the variation in owl reproductive success). Breeding propensity increased with vole density, although increasing goshawk abundance reduced the strength of this relationship. Owls became slightly more likely to breed as they aged, although this was only apparent for individuals who had fledged chicks the year before. Owls laid larger clutches when food was more abundant. When owls were breeding in territories less exposed to goshawk predation, 99·5% of all breeding attempts reached the fledging stage. In contrast, the probability of breeding attempts reaching the fledging stage in territories more exposed to goshawk predation depended on the amount of resources an owl had already allocated towards reproduction (averaging 87·7% for owls with clutches of 1-2 eggs compared to 97·5% for owls with clutches of 4-6 eggs). Overall, our results suggested that changes in extrinsic conditions (predominantly food availability, but also predator abundance) had the greatest influence on owl reproduction. In response to deteriorating extrinsic conditions (fewer voles and more goshawks), owls appeared to breed more frequently, but allocated fewer resources per breeding attempt. However, intrinsic attributes also appeared to have a relatively small influence on how an individual responded to variation in extrinsic conditions, which indicates that owl reproductive decisions were shaped by a complex series of extrinsic and intrinsic trade-offs.

Hierarchical spatial segregation of two Mediterranean vole species: the role of patch-network structure and matrix composition.

According to ecological theory, the coexistence of competitors in patchy environments may be facilitated by hierarchical spatial segregation along axes of environmental variation, but empirical evidence is limited. Cabrera and water voles show a metapopulation-like structure in Mediterranean farmland, where they are known to segregate along space, habitat, and time axes within habitat patches. Here, we assess whether segregation also occurs among and within landscapes, and how this is influenced by patch-network and matrix composition. We surveyed 75 landscapes, each covering 78 ha, where we mapped all habitat patches potentially suitable for Cabrera and water voles, and the area effectively occupied by each species (extent of occupancy). The relatively large water vole tended to be the sole occupant of landscapes with high habitat amount but relatively low patch density (i.e., with a few large patches), and with a predominantly agricultural matrix, whereas landscapes with high patch density (i.e., many small patches) and low agricultural cover, tended to be occupied exclusively by the small Cabrera vole. The two species tended to co-occur in landscapes with intermediate patch-network and matrix characteristics, though their extents of occurrence were negatively correlated after controlling for environmental effects. In combination with our previous studies on the Cabrera-water vole system, these findings illustrated empirically the occurrence of hierarchical spatial segregation, ranging from within-patches to among-landscapes. Overall, our study suggests that recognizing the hierarchical nature of spatial segregation patterns and their major environmental drivers should enhance our understanding of species coexistence in patchy environments.

Age and sex-selective predation moderate the overall impact of predators.

Currently, there is no general agreement about the extent to which predators impact prey population dynamics and it is often poorly predicted by predation rates and species abundances. This could, in part be caused by variation in the type of selective predation occurring. Notably, if predation is selective on categories of individuals that contribute little to future generations, it may moderate the impact of predation on prey population dynamics. However, despite its prevalence, selective predation has seldom been studied in this context. Using recoveries of ringed tawny owls (Strix aluco) predated by 'superpredators', northern goshawks (Accipiter gentilis) as they colonized the area, we investigated the extent to which predation was sex and age-selective. Predation of juvenile owls was disproportionately high. Amongst adults, predation was strongly biased towards females and predation risk appeared to increase with age. This implies age-selective predation may shape the decline in survival with age, observed in tawny owls. To determine whether selective predation can modulate the overall impact of predation, age-based population matrix models were used to simulate the impact of five different patterns of age-selective predation, including the pattern actually observed in the study site. The overall impact on owl population size varied by up to 50%, depending on the pattern of selective predation. The simulation of the observed pattern of predation had a relatively small impact on population size, close to the least harmful scenario, predation on juveniles only. The actual changes in owl population size and structure observed during goshawk colonization were also analysed. Owl population size and immigration were unrelated to goshawk abundance. However, goshawk abundance appeared to interact with owl food availability to have a delayed effect on recruitment into the population. This study provides strong evidence to suggest that predation of other predators is both age and sex-selective and that selective predation of individuals with a low reproductive value may mitigate the overall impact of predators on prey population dynamics. Consequently, our results highlight how accounting for the type of selective predation occurring is likely to improve future predictions of the overall impact of predation.