Vaginal hysteropexy compared with vaginal hysterectomy with apical suspension for the treatment of pelvic organ prolapse: A 5-year cost-effectiveness Markov model.

OBJECTIVE: Our objective was to perform a 5-year cost-effectiveness analysis of transvaginal hysteropexy (HP) via sacrospinous ligament fixation (SS) or uterosacral ligament suspension (US) versus vaginal hysterectomy (VH) with apical suspension via sacrospinous ligament fixation (SS) or uterosacral ligament suspension (US) for the treatment of uterine prolapse. DESIGN: A decision analytic model assessed the cost-effectiveness of the surgical intervention over a 5-year horizon. SETTING: This model was constructed using TreeAge® software. POPULATION OR SAMPLE: Healthy women undergoing surgery for uterine prolapse were modeled. METHODS: A Markov model was constructed to simulate the possible recurrence of prolapse. Recurrence rates, repeat surgery for surgical failures and complication rates were modeled. Base case, sensitivity analyses and probabilistic modeling were performed. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: The primary outcome was the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of <$100 000 per quality-adjusted life year (QALY). RESULTS: Using the available prolapse recurrence rates and repeat surgery rates in the literature, both HP-SS and HP-US are cost-effective at a willingness-to-pay (WTP) threshold of <$100 000 per QALY. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) for HP-US compared to HP-SS is $90 738.14, while VH-US and VH-SS are both dominated strategies. HP-US is the optimal cost-effective strategy but decays exponentially with increasing probability of prolapse recurrence and need for repeat surgery after failed hysteropexy. The cost-effectiveness acceptability curve (CEAC) favors sacrospinous hysteropexy until reaching a WTP threshold between $90 000 and $100 000. CONCLUSION: Hysteropexy surgical strategies are cost-effective transvaginal surgical approaches for uterine prolapse. Vaginal hysterectomy with apical suspension becomes more cost-effective with increasing probability of prolapse recurrence and need for repeat surgery after failed hysteropexy. Given the variability of prolapse recurrence rates in the literature, more comparative studies are needed to understand the cost-effectiveness relationship between these different surgical approaches.

The potential benefits of delaying seasonal influenza vaccine selections for the Northern Hemisphere: a retrospective modeling study in the United States.

BACKGROUNDS: Antigenic similarity between vaccine viruses and circulating viruses is crucial for achieving high vaccine effectiveness against seasonal influenza. New non-egg-based vaccine production technologies could revise current vaccine formulation schedules. We aim to assess the potential benefit of delaying seasonal influenza vaccine virus selection decisions. METHODS: We identified seasons where season-dominant viruses presented increasing prevalence after vaccine formulation had been decided in February for the Northern Hemisphere, contributing to their antigenic discrepancy with vaccine viruses. Using a SEIR model of seasonal influenza in the United States, we evaluated the impact of updating vaccine decisions with more antigenically-similar vaccine viruses on the influenza burden in the United States. RESULTS: In 2014/15 and 2019/20, the season-dominant A(H3N2) subclade and B/Victoria clade respectively presented increasing prevalence after vaccine decisions were already made for the Northern Hemisphere. Our model showed that the updated A(H3N2) vaccine could have averted 5,000-65,000 influenza hospitalizations in the United States in 2014/15, whereas updating the B/Victoria vaccine component did not substantially change influenza burden in 2019/20 season. CONCLUSIONS: With rapid vaccine production, revising current timelines for vaccine selection could result in substantial epidemiological benefits, particularly when additional data could help improve the antigenic match between vaccine and circulating viruses.

The Estimated Lifetime Quality-Adjusted Life-Years Lost Due to Chlamydia, Gonorrhea, and Trichomoniasis in the United States in 2018.

BACKGROUND: Comprehensive evaluation of the quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) lost attributable to chlamydia, gonorrhea, andtrichomoniasis in the United States is lacking. METHODS: We adapted a previous probability-tree model to estimate the average number of lifetime QALYs lost due to genital chlamydia, gonorrhea, and trichomoniasis, per incident infection and at the population level, by sex and age group. We conducted multivariate sensitivity analyses to address uncertainty around key parameter values. RESULTS: The estimated total discounted lifetime QALYs lost for men and women, respectively, due to infections acquired in 2018, were 1541 (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 186-6358) and 111 872 (95% UI, 29 777-267 404) for chlamydia, 989 (95% UI, 127-3720) and 12 112 (95% UI, 2 410-33 895) for gonorrhea, and 386 (95% UI, 30-1851) and 4576 (95% UI, 13-30 355) for trichomoniasis. Total QALYs lost were highest among women aged 15-24 years with chlamydia. QALYs lost estimates were highly sensitive to disutilities (health losses) of infections and sequelae, and to duration of infections and chronic sequelae for chlamydia and gonorrhea in women. CONCLUSIONS: The 3 sexually transmitted infections cause substantial health losses in the United States, particularly gonorrhea and chlamydia among women. The estimates of lifetime QALYs lost per infection help to prioritize prevention policies and inform cost-effectiveness analyses of sexually transmitted infection interventions.

Estimation of the Lifetime Quality-Adjusted Life Years (QALYs) Lost Due to Syphilis Acquired in the United States in 2018.

BACKGROUND: The purpose of this study was to estimate the health impact of syphilis in the United States in terms of the number of quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) lost attributable to infections in 2018. METHODS: We developed a Markov model that simulates the natural history and management of syphilis. The model was parameterized by sex and sexual orientation (women who have sex with men, men who have sex with women [MSW], and men who have sex with men [MSM]), and by age at primary infection. We developed a separate decision tree model to quantify health losses due to congenital syphilis. We estimated the average lifetime number of QALYs lost per infection, and the total expected lifetime number of QALYs lost due to syphilis acquired in 2018. RESULTS: We estimated the average number of discounted lifetime QALYs lost per infection as 0.09 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] .03-.19). The total expected number of QALYs lost due to syphilis acquired in 2018 was 13 349 (5071-31 360). Although per-case loss was the lowest among MSM (0.06), MSM accounted for 47.7% of the overall burden. For each case of congenital syphilis, we estimated 1.79 (1.43-2.16) and 0.06 (.01-.14) QALYs lost in the child and the mother, respectively. We projected 2332 (1871-28 250) and 79 (17-177) QALYs lost for children and mothers, respectively, due to congenital syphilis in 2018. CONCLUSIONS: Syphilis causes substantial health losses in adults and children. Quantifying these health losses in terms of QALYs can inform cost-effectiveness analyses and can facilitate comparisons of the burden of syphilis to that of other diseases.

The Cost-Effectiveness of Nicotine Replacement Therapy Sampling in Primary Care: a Markov Cohort Simulation Model.

BACKGROUND: Pharmacotherapies remain a central focus of successful tobacco control, but uptake remains very low. OBJECTIVE: To estimate the cost effectiveness of a primary care nicotine replacement therapy (NRT) sampling intervention. DESIGN: A Markov cohort simulation model was constructed to conduct cost-effectiveness analyses. Clinical trial results were used to initialize the Markov model. All other model parameters were derived from the literature. The study was conducted over a lifetime horizon, from the payers' budgetary perspective. PARTICIPANTS: Smokers with a primary care visit. INTERVENTION: Medication sampling, which provided short, starter packets of NRT (nicotine patch and lozenge) to smokers in the primary care setting. MAIN MEASURES: Lifetime healthcare expenditures, quality-adjusted life years, and life years. KEY RESULTS: Medication sampling was the dominant strategy compared to standard care. Our intervention cost $75, yielding a discounted lifetime savings of $1065 in healthcare expenditures, and increased both discounted quality-adjusted life years and discounted life years by 0.01. One-way sensitivity analyses showed that medication sampling remained dominant in plausible ranges except when it failed to increase cessation relative to standard care. Probabilistic sensitivity analyses confirmed that medication sampling was dominant in 94.1% of the simulated cases, with an implementation cost of $74 (95% CI $73-$76) and discounted lifetime savings in health expenditures of $1061 (- $1106 to - $1,017), increasing quality-adjusted life years by 0.008 (0.0085-0.0093) and life years by 0.008 (0.0081-0.0089). CONCLUSION: Medication sampling, an easily implementable, scalable and low-cost intervention to encourage smoking cessation, is cost saving and improves quality of life.

Association between unhealthy plant-based diets and the metabolic syndrome in adult men and women: a population-based study in South Korea.

No studies have investigated the associations between established plant-based diet indices and the metabolic syndrome (MetS). We evaluated the associations between an overall plant-based diet index (PDI), healthy PDI (hPDI), unhealthy PDI (uPDI) and the MetS in a nationally representative sample using data from 14 450 Korean adults (≥19 years) in the Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey 2012-2016. Dietary intakes were assessed by a semi-quantitative FFQ. In the PDI, all plant foods received positive scores. In the hPDI, only healthy plant foods received positive scores. In the uPDI, only unhealthy plant foods received positive scores. All indices reverse scored animal food intake. Multivariable logistic regression models were used to examine the associations between three PDI and the MetS by sex, adjusting for potential risk factors. A total of 23·3 % of Korean adults had the MetS. In the overall study population, individuals in the highest quintile of uPDI had greater odds (OR 1·54, 95 % CI 1·28, 1·86, Ptrend < 0·001) of the MetS than those in the lowest quintile. Higher uPDI score was associated with higher odds of hypertriacylglycerolaemia in men and abdominal obesity, high fasting glucose and hypertriacylglycerolaemia in women. No significant associations were observed between PDI, hPDI and the MetS. Greater adherence to unhealthy plant-based diets was associated with greater odds of the MetS and its components suggesting the importance of the quality of plant-based diet in South Korean adults. Sex differences may be considered when recommending plant-based diets for the prevention and management of metabolic diseases.

The Effect of Smoking and Sex on the Association Between Long-term Alcohol Consumption and Metabolic Syndrome in a Middle-aged and Older Population.

BACKGROUND: The effect of smoking and sex on the relationship between alcohol consumption and risk of developing metabolic syndrome (MetS) and its components has not been investigated. METHODS: A total of 5,629 Korean adults aged 40-69 years without MetS were recruited at baseline. Alcohol consumption was assessed biennially, and participants were classified as never, light, moderate, or heavy drinkers. Smoking status was examined at baseline and categorized into non-smokers and current smokers. Risk of incident MetS and its components according to alcohol consumption was examined by smoking status and sex using a multivariate Cox proportional hazards model. RESULTS: During a follow-up of 12 years, 2,336 participants (41.5%) developed MetS. In non-smokers, light or moderate alcohol drinkers had a lower risk of developing MetS, abdominal obesity, hyperglycemia, hypertriglyceridemia, and low HDL-C compared with never drinkers. Heavy alcohol consumption was associated with a higher risk of incident elevated blood pressure (hazard ratio [HR] 1.48; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.07-2.06; P = 0.020) in men and abdominal obesity (HR 1.86; 95% CI, 1.06-3.27; P = 0.030) in women. However, in smokers, the inverse association of light or moderate alcohol consumption with hypertriglyceridemia and abdominal obesity was not present, whereas a positive association between heavy alcohol consumption and hyperglycemia (HR 1.39; 95% CI, 1.07-1.80; P = 0.014) was observed. CONCLUSIONS: Smoking status and sex strongly affects the association between long-term alcohol consumption and MetS and its components by the amount of alcohol consumed.

Plant-based diets and incident metabolic syndrome: Results from a South Korean prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Prior studies have shown that plant-based diets are associated with lower risk of cardiovascular risk factors and incident cardiovascular disease, but risks differed by quality of plant-based diets. No prospective studies have evaluated the associations between different types of plant-based diets and incident metabolic syndrome (MetS) and components of MetS. Furthermore, limited evidence exists in Asian populations who have habitually consumed a diet rich in plant foods for a long period of time. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Analyses were based on a community-based cohort of 5,646 men and women (40-69 years of age at baseline) living in Ansan and Ansung, South Korea (2001-2016) without MetS and related chronic diseases at baseline. Dietary intake was assessed using a validated food frequency questionnaire. Using the responses in the questionnaire, we calculated 4 plant-based diet indices (overall plant-based diet index [PDI], healthful plant-based diet index [hPDI], unhealthful plant-based diet index [uPDI], and pro-vegetarian diet index). Higher PDI score represented greater consumption of all types of plant foods regardless of healthiness. Higher hPDI score represented greater consumption of healthy plant foods (whole grains, fruits, vegetables, nuts, legumes, tea and coffee) and lower consumption of less-healthy plant foods (refined grains, potatoes, sugar-sweetened beverages, sweets, salty foods). Higher uPDI represented lower consumption of healthy plant foods and greater consumption of less-healthy plant foods. Similar to PDI, higher pro-vegetarian diet score represented greater consumption of plant foods but included only selected plant foods (grains, fruits, vegetables, nuts, legumes, potatoes). Higher scores in all plant-based diet indices represented lower consumption of animal foods (animal fat, dairy, eggs, fish/seafood, meat). Over a median follow-up of 8 years, 2,583 participants developed incident MetS. Individuals in the highest versus lowest quintile of uPDI had 50% higher risk of developing incident MetS, adjusting for demographic characteristics and lifestyle factors (hazard ratio [HR]: 1.50, 95% CI 1.31-1.71, P-trend < 0.001). When we further adjusted for body mass index (BMI), those in the highest quintile of uPDI had 24%-46% higher risk of 4 out of 5 individual components of MetS (abdominal obesity, hypertriglyceridemia, low high-density lipoprotein [HDL], and elevated blood pressure) (P-trend for all tests ≤ 0.001). Greater adherence to PDI was associated with lower risk of elevated fasting glucose (HR: 0.80, 95% CI 0.70-0.92, P-trend = 0.003). No consistent associations were observed for other plant-based diet indices and MetS. Limitations of the study may include potential measurement error in self-reported dietary intake, inability to classify a few plant foods as healthy and less-healthy, lack of data on vegetable oil intake, and possibility of residual confounding. CONCLUSIONS: In this study, we observed that greater adherence to diets consisting of a high intake of refined carbohydrates, sugars, and salty foods in the framework of plant-based diets was associated with an elevated risk of MetS. These results suggest that considering the quality of plant foods is important for prevention of MetS in a population that habitually consumes plant foods.

Grain Subtype and the Combination of Grains Consumed Are Associated with the Risk of Metabolic Syndrome: Analysis of a Community-Based Prospective Cohort.

BACKGROUND: Evidence on the prospective association between grain consumption and metabolic syndrome (MetS) is lacking. OBJECTIVE: This study explored the association between grain intake by subtype or various combinations of grain intake and the risk of developing MetS in South Korean adults using data from a community-based prospective cohort study. METHODS: A total of 5717 participants (2984 men and 2733 women) aged 40-69 y without MetS were followed up for 10 y (2001-2012). Grain consumption was assessed using a semiquantitative FFQ at baseline (2001-2002) and a follow-up examination (2005-2006). A multivariate Cox proportional hazards model was used to examine the risk of incident MetS and its components according to grain consumption (<1, 1 to <3, or ≥3 servings/d) by sex. RESULTS: In total, 2218 participants (38.8%) developed MetS. Frequent consumers of whole grains (≥3 servings/d) had a lower risk of incident MetS (men-HR: 0.51; 95% CI: 0.41, 0.63; P  = 0.0001; women-HR: 0.73; 95% CI: 0.60, 0.90; P = 0.0029), whereas frequent consumers of refined grains had a higher risk of incident MetS (men-HR: 1.63; 95% CI: 1.31, 2.03; P < 0.0001; women-HR: 2.25; 95% CI: 1.82, 2.78; P < 0.0001) compared with rare consumers (<1 serving/d). The combination of low whole grains (<2 servings/d) and high refined grains (≥2 servings/d) was associated with a higher risk of MetS than the combination of high whole grains and low refined grains (men-HR: 1.21; 95% CI: 1.04, 1.41; P = 0.012; women-HR: 1.43; 95% CI: 1.23, 1.66; P < 0.0001). CONCLUSIONS: Higher consumption of whole grains was associated with lower risk of incident MetS, whereas higher refined-grain consumption was associated with a higher risk in a middle-aged and older Korean population.

A cost-effectiveness analysis of vaginal carbon dioxide laser therapy compared with standard medical therapies for genitourinary syndrome of menopause-associated dyspareunia.

BACKGROUND: Topical vaginal estrogen therapy is considered the gold standard treatment for genitourinary syndrome of menopause-associated dyspareunia, but early investigations of energy-based devices show promise for patients with contraindications or those who are refractory to vaginal estrogen cream therapy. Although evaluating safety, efficacy, and long-term outcomes for novel technologies is critically important when new technologies become available to treat unmet healthcare needs, evaluation of the costs of these new technologies compared with existing therapies is also critically important but often understudied. OBJECTIVE: We sought to perform a cost-effectiveness analysis of 3 therapies for genitourinary syndrome of menopause, including vaginal estrogen therapy, oral ospemifene therapy, and vaginal CO2 laser therapy and determine if vaginal laser therapy is a cost-effective treatment strategy for dyspareunia associated with genitourinary syndrome of menopause. STUDY DESIGN: An institutional review board-exempt cost-effectiveness analysis was performed by constructing a decision tree using decision analysis software (TreeAge Pro; TreeAge Software, Inc, Williamstown, MA) using integrated empirical data from the published literature. Tornado plots and 1-way and 2-way sensitivity analyses were performed to assess how changes in the model's input parameters altered the overall outcome of the cost-effectiveness analysis model. RESULTS: All 3 treatment methods were found to be cost-effective below the willingness-to-pay threshold of $50,000.00 per quality-adjusted life year for moderate dyspareunia. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio for vaginal CO2 laser therapy was $16,372.01 and the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio for ospemifene therapy was $5711.14. Although all 3 treatment strategies were on the efficient frontier, vaginal CO2 laser therapy was the optimal treatment strategy with the highest effectiveness. In a 1-way sensitivity analysis of treatment adherence, vaginal CO2 laser therapy was no longer cost-effective when the adherence fell below 38.8%. Vaginal estrogen cream and ospemifene therapies remained cost-effective treatment strategies at all ranges of adherence. When varying the adherence to 100% for all strategies, oral ospemifene therapy was "dominated" by both vaginal CO2 laser therapy and vaginal estrogen cream therapy. In a 2-way sensitivity analysis of vaginal CO2 laser therapy adherence and vaginal CO2 laser therapy cost, vaginal CO2 laser therapy still remained the optimal treatment strategy at 200% of its current cost ($5554.00) when the adherence was >55%. When the cost fell to 20% of its current cost ($555.40), it was the optimal treatment strategy at all adherence values above 29%. CONCLUSION: This study showed that vaginal fractional CO2 laser therapy is a cost-effective treatment strategy for dyspareunia associated with GSM, as are both vaginal estrogen and oral ospemifene therapies. In our model, vaginal CO2 laser therapy is the optimal cost-effective treatment strategy, and insurance coverage should be considered for this treatment option if it is proven to be safe and effective in FDA trials.

The Effect of Smoking on the Association between Long-Term Alcohol Consumption and Dyslipidemia in a Middle-Aged and Older Population.

AIMS: The joint effects of chronic alcohol consumption and smoking on dyslipidemia remain unclear in a prospective design. This study examined the effect of smoking on the association between long-term alcohol consumption and risk of incident dyslipidemia. METHODS: A total of 4467 participants (1866 men and 2601women) aged 40-69 years without dyslipidemia were recruited at baseline. Alcohol consumption was assessed biennially using a questionnaire and classified as light, moderate or heavy drinker. Smoking status was examined at baseline and categorized into non-smokers and current smokers. Dyslipidemia was defined as the presence of one or more of following: hypertriglyceridemia (triglyceride ≥200 mg/dL), hypercholesterolemia (total cholesterol ≥240 mg/dL), low high-density lipoprotein-cholesterol (HDL-C) < 40 mg/dL, or high low-density lipoprotein cholesterol ≥160 mg/dL. RESULTS: During a follow-up period of 12 years, 2872 (64.3%) participants developed dyslipidemia. In non-smoking men, light or moderate alcohol consumption was associated with a lower risk of incident dyslipidemia such as hypertriglyceridemia and hypercholesterolemia, whereas this association was not observed in current smoking men. Unlike non-smokers, the duration of alcohol drinking > 10 years was associated with a higher risk of hypertriglyceridemia in current smoking men (hazard ratio = 1.57, 95% confidence interval: 1.07-2.30, P = 0.020). In addition, alcohol consumption was inversely associated with low HDL-C regardless of smoking status. In women, alcohol consumption was inversely associated with dyslipidemia hypercholesterolemia and low HDL-C regardless of alcohol amount. CONCLUSION: Smoking crucially confounds the association between long-term alcohol consumption and dyslipidemia, particularly in hypertriglyceridemia and hypercholesterolemia.

Cost-Effectiveness of Antibiotic Prophylaxis Strategies for Transrectal Prostate Biopsy in an Era of Increasing Antimicrobial Resistance.

OBJECTIVES: To determine the optimal antibiotic prophylaxis strategy for transrectal prostate biopsy (TRPB) as a function of the local antibiotic resistance profile. METHODS: We developed a decision-analytic model to assess the cost-effectiveness of four antibiotic prophylaxis strategies: ciprofloxacin alone, ceftriaxone alone, ciprofloxacin and ceftriaxone in combination, and directed prophylaxis selection based on susceptibility testing. We used a payer's perspective and estimated the health care costs and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) associated with each strategy for a cohort of 66-year-old men undergoing TRPB. Costs and benefits were discounted at 3% annually. Base-case resistance prevalence was 29% to ciprofloxacin and 7% to ceftriaxone, reflecting susceptibility patterns observed at the Minneapolis Veterans Affairs Health Care System. Resistance levels were varied in sensitivity analysis. RESULTS: In the base case, single-agent prophylaxis strategies were dominated. Directed prophylaxis strategy was the optimal strategy at a willingness-to-pay threshold of $50,000/QALY gained. Relative to the directed prophylaxis strategy, the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of the combination strategy was $123,333/QALY gained over the lifetime time horizon. In sensitivity analysis, single-agent prophylaxis strategies were preferred only at extreme levels of resistance. CONCLUSIONS: Directed or combination prophylaxis strategies were optimal for a wide range of resistance levels. Facilities using single-agent antibiotic prophylaxis strategies before TRPB should re-evaluate their strategies unless extremely low levels of antimicrobial resistance are documented.

To expand coverage, or increase frequency: Quantifying the tradeoffs between equity and efficiency facing cervical cancer screening programs in low-resource settings.

Cervical cancer is a leading cause of cancer death worldwide, with 85% of the disease burden residing in less developed regions. To inform evidence-based decision-making as cervical cancer screening programs are planned, implemented, and scaled in low- and middle-income countries, we used cost and test performance data from the START-UP demonstration project in Uganda and a microsimulation model of HPV infection and cervical carcinogenesis to quantify the health benefits, distributional equity, cost-effectiveness, and financial impact of either (1) improving access to cervical cancer screening or (2) increasing the number of lifetime screening opportunities for women who already have access. We found that when baseline screening coverage was low (i.e., 30%), expanding coverage of screening once in a lifetime to 50% can yield comparable reductions in cancer risk to screening two or three times in a lifetime at 30% coverage, lead to greater reductions in health disparities, and cost 150 international dollars (I$) per year of life saved (YLS). At higher baseline screening coverage levels (i.e., 70%), screening three times in a lifetime yielded greater health benefits than expanding screening once in a lifetime to 90% coverage, and would have a cost-effectiveness ratio (I$590 per YLS) below Uganda's per capita GDP. Given very low baseline coverage at present, we conclude that a policy focus on increasing access for previously unscreened women appears to be more compatible with improving both equity and efficiency than a focus on increasing frequency for a small subset of women.

Cost-effectiveness of Stereotactic Body Radiation Therapy versus Radiofrequency Ablation for Hepatocellular Carcinoma: A Markov Modeling Study.

Purpose To assess the cost-effectiveness of stereotactic body radiation therapy (SBRT) versus radiofrequency ablation (RFA) for patients with inoperable localized hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) who are eligible for both SBRT and RFA. Materials and Methods A decision-analytic Markov model was developed for patients with inoperable, localized HCC who were eligible for both RFA and SBRT to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of the following treatment strategies: (a) SBRT as initial treatment followed by SBRT for local progression (SBRT-SBRT), (b) RFA followed by RFA for local progression (RFA-RFA), (c) SBRT followed by RFA for local progression (SBRT-RFA), and (d) RFA followed by SBRT for local progression (RFA-SBRT). Probabilities of disease progression, treatment characteristics, and mortality were derived from published studies. Outcomes included health benefits expressed as discounted quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), costs in U.S. dollars, and cost-effectiveness expressed as an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio. Deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analysis was performed to assess the robustness of the findings. Results In the base case, SBRT-SBRT yielded the most QALYs (1.565) and cost $197 557. RFA-SBRT yielded 1.558 QALYs and cost $193 288. SBRT-SBRT was not cost-effective, at $558 679 per QALY gained relative to RFA-SBRT. RFA-SBRT was the preferred strategy, because RFA-RFA and SBRT-RFA were less effective and more costly. In all evaluated scenarios, SBRT was preferred as salvage therapy for local progression after RFA. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis showed that at a willingness-to-pay threshold of $100 000 per QALY gained, RFA-SBRT was preferred in 65.8% of simulations. Conclusion SBRT for initial treatment of localized, inoperable HCC is not cost-effective. However, SBRT is the preferred salvage therapy for local progression after RFA. © RSNA, 2017 Online supplemental material is available for this article.

Racial and ethnic disparities in human papillomavirus-associated cancer burden with first-generation and second-generation human papillomavirus vaccines.

BACKGROUND: In the United States, the burden of human papillomavirus (HPV)-associated cancers varies by racial/ethnic group. HPV vaccination may provide opportunities for primary prevention of these cancers. Herein, the authors projected changes in HPV-associated cancer burden among racial/ethnic groups under various coverage assumptions with the available first-generation and second-generation HPV vaccines to evaluate changes in racial/ethnic disparities. METHODS: Cancer-specific mathematical models simulated the burden of 6 HPV-associated cancers. Model parameters, informed using national registries and epidemiological studies, reflected sex-specific, age-specific, and racial/ethnic-specific heterogeneities in HPV type distribution, cancer incidence, stage of disease at detection, and mortality. Model outcomes included the cumulative lifetime risks of developing and dying of 6 HPV-associated cancers. The level of racial/ethnic disparities was evaluated under each alternative HPV vaccine scenario using several metrics of social group disparity. RESULTS: HPV vaccination is expected to reduce the risks of developing and dying of HPV-associated cancers in all racial/ethnic groups as well as reduce the absolute degree of disparities. However, alternative metrics suggested that relative disparities would persist and in some scenarios worsen. For example, when assuming high uptake with the second-generation HPV vaccine, the lifetime risk of dying of an HPV-associated cancer for males decreased by approximately 60%, yet the relative disparity increased from 3.0 to 3.9. CONCLUSIONS: HPV vaccines are expected to reduce the overall burden of HPV-associated cancers for all racial/ethnic groups and to reduce the absolute disparity gap. However, even with the second-generation vaccine, relative disparities will likely still exist and may widen if the underlying causes of these disparities remain unaddressed. Cancer 2016;122:2057-66. © 2016 American Cancer Society.

Lifetime quality-adjusted life years lost due to genital herpes acquired in the United States in 2018: a mathematical modeling study.

Background: Genital herpes (GH), caused by herpes simplex virus type 1 and type 2 (HSV-1, HSV-2), is a common sexually transmitted disease associated with adverse health outcomes. Symptoms associated with GH outbreaks can be reduced by antiviral medications, but the infection is incurable and lifelong. In this study, we estimate the long-term health impacts of GH in the United States using quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) lost. Methods: We used probability trees to model the natural history of GH secondary to infection with HSV-1 and HSV-2 among people aged 18-49 years. We modelled the following outcomes to quantify the major causes of health losses following infection: symptomatic herpes outbreaks, psychosocial impacts associated with diagnosis and recurrences, urinary retention caused by sacral radiculitis, aseptic meningitis, Mollaret's meningitis, and neonatal herpes. The model was parameterized based on published literature on the natural history of GH. We summarized losses of health by computing the lifetime number of QALYs lost per genital HSV-1 and HSV-2 infection, and we combined this information with incidence estimates to compute the total lifetime number of QALYs lost due to infections acquired in 2018 in the United States. Findings: We estimated 0.05 (95% uncertainty interval (UI) 0.02-0.08) lifetime QALYs lost per incident GH infection acquired in 2018, equivalent to losing 0.05 years or about 18 days of life for one person with perfect health. The average number of QALYs lost per GH infection due to genital HSV-1 and HSV-2 was 0.01 (95% UI 0.01-0.02) and 0.05 (95% UI 0.02-0.09), respectively. The burden of genital HSV-1 is higher among women, while the burden of HSV-2 is higher among men. QALYs lost per neonatal herpes infection was estimated to be 7.93 (95% UI 6.63-9.19). At the population level, the total estimated lifetime QALYs lost as a result of GH infections acquired in 2018 was 33,100 (95% UI 12,600-67,900) due to GH in adults and 3,140 (95% UI 2,260-4,140) due to neonatal herpes. Results were most sensitive to assumptions on the magnitude of the disutility associated with post-diagnosis psychosocial distress and symptomatic recurrences. Interpretation: GH is associated with substantial health losses in the United States. Results from this study can be used to compare the burden of GH to other diseases, and it provides inputs that may be used in studies on the health impact and cost-effectiveness of interventions that aim to reduce the burden of GH. Funding: The Center for Disease Control and Prevention.

Estimating the Impact of Low Influenza Activity in 2020 on Population Immunity and Future Influenza Seasons in the United States.

BACKGROUND: Influenza activity in the 2020-2021 season was remarkably low, likely due to implementation of public health preventive measures such as social distancing, mask wearing, and school closure. With waning immunity, the impact of low influenza activity in the 2020-2021 season on the following season is unknown. METHODS: We built a multistrain compartmental model that captures immunity over multiple influenza seasons in the United States. Compared with the counterfactual case, where influenza activity remained at the normal level in 2020-2021, we estimated the change in the number of hospitalizations when the transmission rate was decreased by 20% in 2020-2021. We varied the level of vaccine uptake and effectiveness in 2021-2022. We measured the change in population immunity over time by varying the number of seasons with lowered influenza activity. RESULTS: With the lowered influenza activity in 2020-2021, the model estimated 102 000 (95% CI, 57 000-152 000) additional hospitalizations in 2021-2022, without changes in vaccine uptake and effectiveness. The estimated changes in hospitalizations varied depending on the level of vaccine uptake and effectiveness in the following year. Achieving a 50% increase in vaccine coverage was necessary to avert the expected increase in hospitalization in the next influenza season. If the low influenza activity were to continue over several seasons, population immunity would remain low during those seasons, with 48% of the population susceptible to influenza infection. CONCLUSIONS: Our study projected a large compensatory influenza season in 2021-2022 due to a light season in 2020-2021. However, higher influenza vaccine uptake would reduce this projected increase in influenza.

Serum vitamin D status and metabolic syndrome: a systematic review and dose-response meta-analysis.

BACKGROUD/OBJECTIVES: Evidence has suggested an association between serum vitamin D and metabolic syndrome (MetS), but prospective studies are very limited. The objective was to assess the dose-response association between serum vitamin D concentration and MetS risk using a systematic review and meta-analysis of updated observational studies. MATERIALS/METHODS: Using MEDLINE, PubMed, and Embase, a systematic literature search was conducted through February 2020 and the references of relevant articles were reviewed. A random-effects model was used to estimate the summary odds ratio/relative risk and 95% confidence interval (CI). Heterogeneity among studies was evaluated with I2 statistic. In total, 23 observational studies (19 cross-sectional studies, and four cohort studies) were included in the meta-analysis. RESULTS: The pooled estimates (95% CI) for MetS per 25-nmol/L increment in serum vitamin D concentration were 0.80 (95% CI, 0.76-0.84; I2 = 53.5) in cross-sectional studies, and 0.85 (95% CI, 0.72-0.98; I2 = 85.8) in cohort studies. Similar results were observed, irrespectively of age of study population, study location, MetS criteria, and adjustment factors. There was no publication bias for the dose-response meta-analysis of serum vitamin D concentrations and MetS. CONCLUSIONS: Dose-response meta-analysis demonstrated that a 25-nmol/L increment in the serum vitamin D concentration was associated with 20% and 15% lower risks of MetS in cross-sectional studies and cohort studies, respectively.

Patterns of heavy drinking behaviour over age and birth cohorts among Chinese men: a Markov model.

OBJECTIVES: To estimate the age patterns and cohort trends in heavy drinking among Chinese men from 1993 to 2011 and to project the future burden of heavy drinking through 2027. DESIGN: We constructed a Markov cohort model that simulates age-specific heavy drinking behaviours for a series of cohorts of Chinese men born between 1922 and 1993 and fitted the model to longitudinal data on drinking patterns (1993-2015). We projected male prevalence of heavy drinking from 2015 through 2027 with and without modification of heavy drinking behaviours. PARTICIPANTS: A cohort of Chinese men who were born between 1922 and 1993. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Outcomes included age-specific and birth cohort-specific rates of initiating, quitting and reinitiating heavy drinking from 1993 through 2011, projected prevalence of heavy drinking from 2015 to 2027, and total reduction in prevalence and total averted deaths with hypothetical elimination of heavy drinking behaviours. RESULTS: Across multiple birth cohorts, middle-aged Chinese men have consistently higher risks of starting and resuming heavy drinking and lower probabilities of quitting their current heavy drinking than men in other age groups. From 1993 to 2011, the risk of starting or resuming heavy drinking continued to decrease over generations. Our model projected that the prevalence of heavy drinking among Chinese men will decrease by 33% (95% CI 11.5% to 54.6%) between 2015 and the end of 2027. Complete elimination of or acceptance of a change in heavy drinking behaviours among Chinese men could accelerate this decrease by 12 percentage points (95% CI 7.8 to 18.2) and avert 377 000 deaths (95% CI 228 000 to 577 000) in total from 2015 to 2027. CONCLUSION: Heavy drinking prevalence will continue to decrease through 2027 if current age-specific and birth cohort-specific patterns of starting, quitting and resuming heavy drinking continue. Effective mitigation policy should consider age-specific patterns in heavy drinking behaviours to further reduce the burden of heavy drinking.

Association between Different Types of Plant-Based Diets and Risk of Dyslipidemia: A Prospective Cohort Study.

We evaluated the associations among different types of plant-based diet indices, risk of dyslipidemia, and individual lipid disorders in Asian populations with different dietary patterns from Western populations. Participants included 4507 Korean adults aged ≥40 years without dyslipidemia and related chronic diseases at baseline (2001-2002). Dietary intakes were assessed using an average of validated food frequency questionnaires measured twice. We calculated three plant-based diet indices: overall plant-based diet index (PDI), healthful plant-based diet index (hPDI), and unhealthful plant-based diet index (uPDI). During a follow-up of 14 years, 2995 incident dyslipidemia cases occurred. Comparing the highest with lowest quintiles, the multivariable-adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) for incident dyslipidemia were 0.78 (95% CI, 0.69-0.88) for PDI, 0.63 (95% CI, 0.56-0.70) for hPDI, and 1.48 (95% CI, 1.30-1.69) for uPDI (P-trend < 0.0001 for all). Associations between PDI and individual lipid disorders differed by sex. The PDI was inversely associated with risk of developing hypertriglyceridemia in men and with risk of developing low high-density lipoprotein cholesterol in women. The hPDI was inversely associated with risk of all lipid disorders, whereas the uPDI was positively associated with individual lipid disorders. The quality of plant foods is important for prevention of dyslipidemia in a population that consumes diets high in plant foods.