The scales of human mobility.

There is a contradiction at the heart of our current understanding of individual and collective mobility patterns. On the one hand, a highly influential body of literature on human mobility driven by analyses of massive empirical datasets finds that human movements show no evidence of characteristic spatial scales. There, human mobility is described as scale free1-3. On the other hand, geographically, the concept of scale-referring to meaningful levels of description from individual buildings to neighbourhoods, cities, regions and countries-is central for the description of various aspects of human behaviour, such as socioeconomic interactions, or political and cultural dynamics4,5. Here we resolve this apparent paradox by showing that day-to-day human mobility does indeed contain meaningful scales, corresponding to spatial 'containers' that restrict mobility behaviour. The scale-free results arise from aggregating displacements across containers. We present a simple model-which given a person's trajectory-infers their neighbourhood, city and so on, as well as the sizes of these geographical containers. We find that the containers-characterizing the trajectories of more than 700,000 individuals-do indeed have typical sizes. We show that our model is also able to generate highly realistic trajectories and provides a way to understand the differences in mobility behaviour across countries, gender groups and urban-rural areas.

Task-specific information outperforms surveillance-style big data in predictive analytics.

Increasingly, human behavior can be monitored through the collection of data from digital devices revealing information on behaviors and locations. In the context of higher education, a growing number of schools and universities collect data on their students with the purpose of assessing or predicting behaviors and academic performance, and the COVID-19-induced move to online education dramatically increases what can be accumulated in this way, raising concerns about students' privacy. We focus on academic performance and ask whether predictive performance for a given dataset can be achieved with less privacy-invasive, but more task-specific, data. We draw on a unique dataset on a large student population containing both highly detailed measures of behavior and personality and high-quality third-party reported individual-level administrative data. We find that models estimated using the big behavioral data are indeed able to accurately predict academic performance out of sample. However, models using only low-dimensional and arguably less privacy-invasive administrative data perform considerably better and, importantly, do not improve when we add the high-resolution, privacy-invasive behavioral data. We argue that combining big behavioral data with "ground truth" administrative registry data can ideally allow the identification of privacy-preserving task-specific features that can be employed instead of current indiscriminate troves of behavioral data, with better privacy and better prediction resulting.

Science Communication as a Collective Intelligence Endeavor: A Manifesto and Examples for Implementation.

Effective science communication is challenging when scientific messages are informed by a continually updating evidence base and must often compete against misinformation. We argue that we need a new program of science communication as collective intelligence-a collaborative approach, supported by technology. This would have four key advantages over the typical model where scientists communicate as individuals: scientific messages would be informed by (a) a wider base of aggregated knowledge, (b) contributions from a diverse scientific community, (c) participatory input from stakeholders, and (d) better responsiveness to ongoing changes in the state of knowledge.

Understanding components of mobility during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Travel restrictions have proven to be an effective strategy to control the spread of the COVID-19 epidemics, in part because they help delay disease propagation across territories. The question, however, as to how different types of travel behaviour, from commuting to holiday-related travel, contribute to the spread of infectious diseases remains open. Here, we address this issue by using factorization techniques to decompose the temporal network describing mobility flows throughout 2020 into interpretable components. Our results are based on two mobility datasets: the first is gathered from Danish mobile network operators; the second originates from the Facebook Data-For-Good project. We find that mobility patterns can be described as the aggregation of three mobility network components roughly corresponding to travel during workdays, weekends and holidays, respectively. We show that, across datasets, in periods of strict travel restrictions the component corresponding to workday travel decreases dramatically. Instead, the weekend component, increases. Finally, we study how each type of mobility (workday, weekend and holiday) contributes to epidemics spreading, by measuring how the effective distance, which quantifies how quickly a disease can travel between any two municipalities, changes across network components. This article is part of the theme issue 'Data science approaches to infectious disease surveillance'.

The chaperone effect in scientific publishing.

Experience plays a critical role in crafting high-impact scientific work. This is particularly evident in top multidisciplinary journals, where a scientist is unlikely to appear as senior author if he or she has not previously published within the same journal. Here, we develop a quantitative understanding of author order by quantifying this "chaperone effect," capturing how scientists transition into senior status within a particular publication venue. We illustrate that the chaperone effect has a different magnitude for journals in different branches of science, being more pronounced in medical and biological sciences and weaker in natural sciences. Finally, we show that in the case of high-impact venues, the chaperone effect has significant implications, specifically resulting in a higher average impact relative to papers authored by new principal investigators (PIs). Our findings shed light on the role played by experience in publishing within specific scientific journals, on the paths toward acquiring the necessary experience and expertise, and on the skills required to publish in prestigious venues.

Give more data, awareness and control to individual citizens, and they will help COVID-19 containment.

The rapid dynamics of COVID-19 calls for quick and effective tracking of virus transmission chains and early detection of outbreaks, especially in the "phase 2" of the pandemic, when lockdown and other restriction measures are progressively withdrawn, in order to avoid or minimize contagion resurgence. For this purpose, contact-tracing apps are being proposed for large scale adoption by many countries. A centralized approach, where data sensed by the app are all sent to a nation-wide server, raises concerns about citizens' privacy and needlessly strong digital surveillance, thus alerting us to the need to minimize personal data collection and avoiding location tracking. We advocate the conceptual advantage of a decentralized approach, where both contact and location data are collected exclusively in individual citizens' "personal data stores", to be shared separately and selectively (e.g., with a backend system, but possibly also with other citizens), voluntarily, only when the citizen has tested positive for COVID-19, and with a privacy preserving level of granularity. This approach better protects the personal sphere of citizens and affords multiple benefits: it allows for detailed information gathering for infected people in a privacy-preserving fashion; and, in turn this enables both contact tracing, and, the early detection of outbreak hotspots on more finely-granulated geographic scale. The decentralized approach is also scalable to large populations, in that only the data of positive patients need be handled at a central level. Our recommendation is two-fold. First to extend existing decentralized architectures with a light touch, in order to manage the collection of location data locally on the device, and allow the user to share spatio-temporal aggregates-if and when they want and for specific aims-with health authorities, for instance. Second, we favour a longer-term pursuit of realizing a Personal Data Store vision, giving users the opportunity to contribute to collective good in the measure they want, enhancing self-awareness, and cultivating collective efforts for rebuilding society.

Social ties between team members affect patient satisfaction: a data-driven approach to handling complex network analyses.

Research from outside the medical field suggests that social ties between team-members influence knowledge sharing, improve coordination, and facilitate task completion. However, the relative importance of social ties among team-members for patient satisfaction remains unknown. In this study, we explored the association between social ties within emergency teams performing simulated caesarean sections (CS) and patient-actor satisfaction. Two hundred seventy-two participants were allocated to 33 teams performing two emergency CSs in a simulated setting. We collected data on social ties between team-members, measured as affective, personal and professional ties. Ties were rated on 5-point Likert scales. In addition, participants' clinical experience, demographic data and their knowledge about team members' roles were surveyed. Perceived patient satisfaction was measured on a 5-point Likert scale. Data was analysed with a linear regression model using elastic net regularization. In total, 109 predictor variables were analysed including 84 related to social ties and 25 related to clinical experience, demographics and knowledge test scores. Of the 84 variables reflecting social ties, 34 (41%) had significant association with patient satisfaction, p < 0.01. By contrast, a significant association with patient satisfaction was found for only one (4%) of the 25 variables reflecting clinical experience, demographics and knowledge of team roles. Affective ties and personal ties were found to be far more important predictors in the statistical model than professional ties and predictors relating to clinical experience. Social ties between emergency team members may be important predictors of patient satisfaction. The results from this study help to enhance our conceptual understanding of social ties and their implications for team-dynamics. Our study challenges existing views of team-performance by placing emphasis on achieving collective competence through affective and personal social ties, rather than focusing on traditional measures of expertise.

Fundamental structures of dynamic social networks.

Social systems are in a constant state of flux, with dynamics spanning from minute-by-minute changes to patterns present on the timescale of years. Accurate models of social dynamics are important for understanding the spreading of influence or diseases, formation of friendships, and the productivity of teams. Although there has been much progress on understanding complex networks over the past decade, little is known about the regularities governing the microdynamics of social networks. Here, we explore the dynamic social network of a densely-connected population of ∼1,000 individuals and their interactions in the network of real-world person-to-person proximity measured via Bluetooth, as well as their telecommunication networks, online social media contacts, geolocation, and demographic data. These high-resolution data allow us to observe social groups directly, rendering community detection unnecessary. Starting from 5-min time slices, we uncover dynamic social structures expressed on multiple timescales. On the hourly timescale, we find that gatherings are fluid, with members coming and going, but organized via a stable core of individuals. Each core represents a social context. Cores exhibit a pattern of recurring meetings across weeks and months, each with varying degrees of regularity. Taken together, these findings provide a powerful simplification of the social network, where cores represent fundamental structures expressed with strong temporal and spatial regularity. Using this framework, we explore the complex interplay between social and geospatial behavior, documenting how the formation of cores is preceded by coordination behavior in the communication networks and demonstrating that social behavior can be predicted with high precision.

Link communities reveal multiscale complexity in networks.

Networks have become a key approach to understanding systems of interacting objects, unifying the study of diverse phenomena including biological organisms and human society. One crucial step when studying the structure and dynamics of networks is to identify communities: groups of related nodes that correspond to functional subunits such as protein complexes or social spheres. Communities in networks often overlap such that nodes simultaneously belong to several groups. Meanwhile, many networks are known to possess hierarchical organization, where communities are recursively grouped into a hierarchical structure. However, the fact that many real networks have communities with pervasive overlap, where each and every node belongs to more than one group, has the consequence that a global hierarchy of nodes cannot capture the relationships between overlapping groups. Here we reinvent communities as groups of links rather than nodes and show that this unorthodox approach successfully reconciles the antagonistic organizing principles of overlapping communities and hierarchy. In contrast to the existing literature, which has entirely focused on grouping nodes, link communities naturally incorporate overlap while revealing hierarchical organization. We find relevant link communities in many networks, including major biological networks such as protein-protein interaction and metabolic networks, and show that a large social network contains hierarchically organized community structures spanning inner-city to regional scales while maintaining pervasive overlap. Our results imply that link communities are fundamental building blocks that reveal overlap and hierarchical organization in networks to be two aspects of the same phenomenon.

Understanding scholar-trajectories across scientific periodicals.

Despite the rapid growth in the number of scientific publications, our understanding of author publication trajectories remains limited. Here we propose an embedding-based framework for tracking author trajectories in a geometric space that leverages the information encoded in the publication sequences, namely the list of the consecutive publication venues for each scholar. Using the publication histories of approximately 30,000 social media researchers, we obtain a knowledge space that broadly captures essential information about periodicals as well as complex (inter-)disciplinary structures of science. Based on this space, we study academic success through the prism of movement across scientific periodicals. We use a measure from human mobility, the radius of gyration, to characterize individual scholars' trajectories. Results show that author mobility across periodicals negatively correlates with citations, suggesting that successful scholars tend to publish in a relatively proximal range of periodicals. Overall, our framework discovers intricate structures in large-scale sequential data and provides new ways to explore mobility and trajectory patterns.

Nonrepresentativeness of Human Mobility Data and its Impact on Modeling Dynamics of the COVID-19 Pandemic: Systematic Evaluation.

BACKGROUND: In recent years, a range of novel smartphone-derived data streams about human mobility have become available on a near-real-time basis. These data have been used, for example, to perform traffic forecasting and epidemic modeling. During the COVID-19 pandemic in particular, human travel behavior has been considered a key component of epidemiological modeling to provide more reliable estimates about the volumes of the pandemic's importation and transmission routes, or to identify hot spots. However, nearly universally in the literature, the representativeness of these data, how they relate to the underlying real-world human mobility, has been overlooked. This disconnect between data and reality is especially relevant in the case of socially disadvantaged minorities. OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study is to illustrate the nonrepresentativeness of data on human mobility and the impact of this nonrepresentativeness on modeling dynamics of the epidemic. This study systematically evaluates how real-world travel flows differ from census-based estimations, especially in the case of socially disadvantaged minorities, such as older adults and women, and further measures biases introduced by this difference in epidemiological studies. METHODS: To understand the demographic composition of population movements, a nationwide mobility data set from 318 million mobile phone users in China from January 1 to February 29, 2020, was curated. Specifically, we quantified the disparity in the population composition between actual migrations and resident composition according to census data, and shows how this nonrepresentativeness impacts epidemiological modeling by constructing an age-structured SEIR (Susceptible-Exposed-Infected- Recovered) model of COVID-19 transmission. RESULTS: We found a significant difference in the demographic composition between those who travel and the overall population. In the population flows, 59% (n=20,067,526) of travelers are young and 36% (n=12,210,565) of them are middle-aged (P<.001), which is completely different from the overall adult population composition of China (where 36% of individuals are young and 40% of them are middle-aged). This difference would introduce a striking bias in epidemiological studies: the estimation of maximum daily infections differs nearly 3 times, and the peak time has a large gap of 46 days. CONCLUSIONS: The difference between actual migrations and resident composition strongly impacts outcomes of epidemiological forecasts, which typically assume that flows represent underlying demographics. Our findings imply that it is necessary to measure and quantify the inherent biases related to nonrepresentativeness for accurate epidemiological surveillance and forecasting.

Using smartphones to study vaccination decisions in the wild.

One of the most important tools available to limit the spread and impact of infectious diseases is vaccination. It is therefore important to understand what factors determine people's vaccination decisions. To this end, previous behavioural research made use of, (i) controlled but often abstract or hypothetical studies (e.g., vignettes) or, (ii) realistic but typically less flexible studies that make it difficult to understand individual decision processes (e.g., clinical trials). Combining the best of these approaches, we propose integrating real-world Bluetooth contacts via smartphones in several rounds of a game scenario, as a novel methodology to study vaccination decisions and disease spread. In our 12-week proof-of-concept study conducted with N = 494 students, we found that participants strongly responded to some of the information provided to them during or after each decision round, particularly those related to their individual health outcomes. In contrast, information related to others' decisions and outcomes (e.g., the number of vaccinated or infected individuals) appeared to be less important. We discuss the potential of this novel method and point to fruitful areas for future research.

Using sequences of life-events to predict human lives.

Here we represent human lives in a way that shares structural similarity to language, and we exploit this similarity to adapt natural language processing techniques to examine the evolution and predictability of human lives based on detailed event sequences. We do this by drawing on a comprehensive registry dataset, which is available for Denmark across several years, and that includes information about life-events related to health, education, occupation, income, address and working hours, recorded with day-to-day resolution. We create embeddings of life-events in a single vector space, showing that this embedding space is robust and highly structured. Our models allow us to predict diverse outcomes ranging from early mortality to personality nuances, outperforming state-of-the-art models by a wide margin. Using methods for interpreting deep learning models, we probe the algorithm to understand the factors that enable our predictions. Our framework allows researchers to discover potential mechanisms that impact life outcomes as well as the associated possibilities for personalized interventions.

High-resolution epidemiological landscape from ~290,000 SARS-CoV-2 genomes from Denmark.

Vast amounts of pathogen genomic, demographic and spatial data are transforming our understanding of SARS-CoV-2 emergence and spread. We examined the drivers of molecular evolution and spread of 291,791 SARS-CoV-2 genomes from Denmark in 2021. With a sequencing rate consistently exceeding 60%, and up to 80% of PCR-positive samples between March and November, the viral genome set is broadly whole-epidemic representative. We identify a consistent rise in viral diversity over time, with notable spikes upon the importation of novel variants (e.g., Delta and Omicron). By linking genomic data with rich individual-level demographic data from national registers, we find that individuals aged  < 15 and  > 75 years had a lower contribution to molecular change (i.e., branch lengths) compared to other age groups, but similar molecular evolutionary rates, suggesting a lower likelihood of introducing novel variants. Similarly, we find greater molecular change among vaccinated individuals, suggestive of immune evasion. We also observe evidence of transmission in rural areas to follow predictable diffusion processes. Conversely, urban areas are expectedly more complex due to their high mobility, emphasising the role of population structure in driving virus spread. Our analyses highlight the added value of integrating genomic data with detailed demographic and spatial information, particularly in the absence of structured infection surveys.

Exposure to urban and rural contexts shapes smartphone usage behavior.

Smartphones have profoundly changed human life. Nevertheless, the factors that shape how we use our smartphones remain unclear, in part due to limited availability of usage-data. Here, we investigate the impact of a key environmental factor: users' exposure to urban and rural contexts. Our analysis is based on a global dataset describing mobile app usage and location for ∼500,000 individuals. We uncover strong and nontrivial patterns. First, we confirm that rural users tend to spend less time on their phone than their urban counterparts. We find, however, that individuals in rural areas tend to use their smartphones for activities such as gaming and social media. In cities, individuals preferentially use their phone for activities such as navigation and business. Are these effects (1) driven by differences between individuals who choose to live in urban vs. rural environments or do they (2) emerge because the environment itself affects online behavior? Using a quasi-experimental design based on individuals that move from the city to the countryside-or vice versa-we confirm hypothesis (2) and find that smartphone use changes according to users's environment. This work presents a quantitative step forward towards understanding how the interplay between environment and smartphones impacts human lives. As such, our findings could provide information to better regulate persuasive technologies embedded in smartphone apps. Further, our work opens the door to understanding new mechanisms leading to urban/rural divides in political and socioeconomic attitudes.

Epidemic modelling of monitoring public behavior using surveys during pandemic-induced lockdowns.

BACKGROUND: Implementing a lockdown for disease mitigation is a balancing act: Non-pharmaceutical interventions can reduce disease transmission significantly, but interventions also have considerable societal costs. Therefore, decision-makers need near real-time information to calibrate the level of restrictions. METHODS: We fielded daily surveys in Denmark during the second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic to monitor public response to the announced lockdown. A key question asked respondents to state their number of close contacts within the past 24 hours. Here, we establish a link between survey data, mobility data, and hospitalizations via epidemic modelling of a short time-interval around Denmark's December 2020 lockdown. Using Bayesian analysis, we then evaluate the usefulness of survey responses as a tool to monitor the effects of lockdown and then compare the predictive performance to that of mobility data. RESULTS: We find that, unlike mobility, self-reported contacts decreased significantly in all regions before the nation-wide implementation of non-pharmaceutical interventions and improved predicting future hospitalizations compared to mobility data. A detailed analysis of contact types indicates that contact with friends and strangers outperforms contact with colleagues and family members (outside the household) on the same prediction task. CONCLUSIONS: Representative surveys thus qualify as a reliable, non-privacy invasive monitoring tool to track the implementation of non-pharmaceutical interventions and study potential transmission paths.

Mobile phone data obtained from companies such as Google and Apple have often been used to monitor public compliance with pandemic lockdowns and make predictions of future disease spread. Survey data obtained by asking people a series of questions can provide an alternative source of information. We undertook daily surveys of a representative subset of the Danish population immediately before, and during, a lockdown during the COVID19 pandemic. We compared the modeling results obtained from the surveys with data derived from the movement of mobile phones. The self-reported survey data was more predictive of future hospitalizations due to COVID than mobility data. Our data suggest that surveys can be used to monitor compliance during lockdowns.

Characterizing polarization in online vaccine discourse-A large-scale study.

Vaccine hesitancy is currently recognized by the WHO as a major threat to global health. Recently, especially during the COVID-19 pandemic, there has been a growing interest in the role of social media in the propagation of false information and fringe narratives regarding vaccination. Using a sample of approximately 60 billion tweets, we conduct a large-scale analysis of the vaccine discourse on Twitter. We use methods from deep learning and transfer learning to estimate the vaccine sentiments expressed in tweets, then categorize individual-level user attitude towards vaccines. Drawing on an interaction graph representing mutual interactions between users, we analyze the interplay between vaccine stances, interaction network, and the information sources shared by users in vaccine-related contexts. We find that strongly anti-vaccine users frequently share content from sources of a commercial nature; typically sources which sell alternative health products for profit. An interesting aspect of this finding is that concerns regarding commercial conflicts of interests are often cited as one of the major factors in vaccine hesitancy. Further, we show that the debate is highly polarized, in the sense that users with similar stances on vaccination interact preferentially with one another. Extending this insight, we provide evidence of an epistemic echo chamber effect, where users are exposed to highly dissimilar sources of vaccine information, depending the vaccination stance of their contacts. Our findings highlight the importance of understanding and addressing vaccine mis- and dis-information in the context in which they are disseminated in social networks.

Quantifying daily rhythms with non-negative matrix factorization applied to mobile phone data.

Human activities follow daily, weekly, and seasonal rhythms. The emergence of these rhythms is related to physiology and natural cycles as well as social constructs. The human body and its biological functions undergo near 24-h rhythms (circadian rhythms). While their frequencies are similar across people, their phases differ. In the chronobiology literature, people are categorized into morning-type, evening-type, and intermediate-type groups called chronotypes based on their tendency to sleep at different times of day. Typically, this typology builds on carefully designed questionnaires or manually crafted features of time series data on people's activity. Here, we introduce a method where time-stamped data from smartphones are decomposed into components using non-negative matrix factorization. The method does not require any predetermined assumptions about the typical times of sleep or activity: the results are fully context-dependent and determined by the most prominent features of the activity data. We demonstrate our method by applying it to a dataset of mobile phone screen usage logs of 400 university students, collected over a year. We find four emergent temporal components: morning activity, night activity, evening activity and activity at noon. Individual behavior can be reduced to weights on these four components. We do not observe any clear categories of people based on the weights, but individuals are rather placed on a continuous spectrum according to the timings of their phone activities. High weights for the morning and night components strongly correlate with sleep and wake-up times. Our work points towards a data-driven way of characterizing people based on their full daily and weekly rhythms of activity and behavior, instead of only focusing on the timing of their sleeping periods.

Sleep during travel balances individual sleep needs.

Travel is expected to have a deleterious effect on sleep, but an epidemiological-scale understanding of sleep changes associated with travel has been limited by a lack of large-scale data. Our global dataset of ~20,000 individuals and 3.17 million nights (~218,000 travel nights), while focused mainly on short, non-time-zone-crossing trips, reveals that travel has a balancing effect on sleep. Underslept individuals typically sleep more during travel than when at home, while individuals who average more than 7.5 hours of sleep at home typically sleep less when travelling. The difference in travel sleep quantity depends linearly on home sleep quantity and decreases as median sleep duration increases. On average, travel wake time advances to later hours on weekdays but earlier hours on weekends. Our study emphasizes the potential for consumer-grade wearable device data to explore how environment and behaviour affect sleep.