Variability in excess deaths across countries with different vulnerability during 2020-2023.

Excess deaths provide total impact estimates of major crises, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. We evaluated excess death trajectories across countries with accurate death registration and population age structure data and assessed relationships with vulnerability indicators. Using the Human Mortality Database on 34 countries, excess deaths were calculated for 2020-2023 (to week 29, 2023) using 2017-2019 as reference, with adjustment for 5 age strata. Countries were divided into less and more vulnerable; the latter had per capita nominal GDP < $30,000, Gini > 0.35 for income inequality and/or at least ≥2.5% of their population living in poverty. Excess deaths (as proportion of expected deaths, p%) were inversely correlated with per capita GDP (r = -0.60), correlated with proportion living in poverty (r = 0.66), and modestly correlated with income inequality (r = 0.45). Incidence rate ratio for deaths was 1.062 (95% CI, 1.038-1.087) in more versus less vulnerable countries. Excess deaths started deviating in the two groups after the first wave. Between-country heterogeneity diminished gradually within each group. Less vulnerable countries had mean p% = -0.8% and 0.4% in 0-64 and >65-y-old strata. More vulnerable countries had mean p% = 7.0% and 7.2%, respectively. Lower death rates were seen in children of age 0-14 y during 2020-2023 versus prepandemic years. While the pandemic hit some countries earlier than others, country vulnerability dominated eventually the cumulative impact. Half the analyzed countries witnessed no substantial excess deaths versus prepandemic levels, while the others suffered major death tolls.

Combining Force Fields and Neural Networks for an Accurate Representation of Bonded Interactions.

We present a formalism of a neural network encoding bonded interactions in molecules. This intramolecular encoding is consistent with the models of intermolecular interactions previously designed by this group. Variants of the encoding fed into a corresponding neural network may be used to economically improve the representation of torsional degrees of freedom in any force field. We test the accuracy of the reproduction of the ab initio potential energy surface on a set of conformations of two dipeptides, methyl-capped ALA and ASP, in several scenarios. The encoding, either alone or in conjunction with an analytical potential, improves agreement with ab initio energies that are on par with those of other neural network-based potentials. Using the encoding and neural nets in tandem with an analytical model places the agreements firmly within "chemical accuracy" of ±0.5 kcal/mol.

The promoting physical activity in regional and remote cancer survivors (PPARCS) trial: Physical activity maintenance.

INTRODUCTION: The study examined whether increased physical activity (PA) in nonmetropolitan cancer survivors was maintained 12 weeks following the PPARCS intervention. METHODS: PA outcomes were assessed using an accelerometer at baseline, end of the intervention, and at 24 weeks. Linear mixed models were used to examine between-group changes in PA outcomes. RESULTS: The increased moderate-to-vigorous PA (MVPA) following intervention was maintained with significantly higher MVPA in the intervention group at 24 weeks (vs. controls) compared to baseline nett change of 52.5 min/week (95% CI 11.0-94.0.4). CONCLUSIONS: Distance-based interventions using wearables and health coaching may produce MVPA maintenance amongst nonmetropolitan cancer survivors.

Dural arteriovenous fistulas are not observed to convert to a higher grade after partial embolization.

OBJECTIVE: Borden-Shucart type I dural arteriovenous fistulas (dAVFs) lack cortical venous drainage and occasionally necessitate intervention depending on patient symptoms. Conversion is the rare transformation of a low-grade dAVF to a higher grade. Factors associated with increased risk of dAVF conversion to a higher grade are poorly understood. The authors hypothesized that partial treatment of type I dAVFs is an independent risk factor for conversion. METHODS: The multicenter Consortium for Dural Arteriovenous Fistula Outcomes Research database was used to perform a retrospective analysis of all patients with type I dAVFs. RESULTS: Three hundred fifty-eight (33.2%) of 1077 patients had type I dAVFs. Of those 358 patients, 206 received endovascular treatment and 131 were not treated. Two (2.2%) of 91 patients receiving partial endovascular treatment for a low-grade dAVF experienced conversion to a higher grade, 2 (1.5%) of 131 who were not treated experienced conversion, and none (0%) of 115 patients who received complete endovascular treatment experienced dAVF conversion. The majority of converted dAVFs localized to the transverse-sigmoid sinus and all received embolization as part of their treatment. CONCLUSIONS: Partial treatment of type I dAVFs does not appear to be significantly associated with conversion to a higher grade.

Comparative Outcomes of Mechanical Thrombectomy in Acute Ischemic Stroke Patients with ASPECTS 2-3 vs. 4-5.

BACKGROUND: The influence of Alberta Stroke Program Early CT Score (ASPECTS) on outcomes following mechanical thrombectomy (MT) for acute ischemic stroke (AIS) patients with low ASPECTS remains unknown. In this study, we compared the outcomes of AIS patients treated with MT for large vessel occlusion (LVO) categorized by ASPECTS value. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective analysis involving 305 patients with AIS caused by LVO, defined as the occlusion of the internal carotid artery and/or the M1 segments of the middle cerebral artery, stratified into two groups: ASPECTS 2-3 and 4-5. The primary outcome was favorable outcome defined as a 90-day modified Rankin Scale (mRS) score of 0-3. Secondary outcomes were 90-day mRS 0-2, 90-day mortality, any intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH), and symptomatic ICH (sICH). We performed multivariable logistic regression analysis to evaluate the impact of ASPECTS 2-3 vs. 4-5 on outcomes. RESULTS: Fifty-nine patients (19.3%) had ASPECTS 2-3 and 246 (80.7%) had ASPECTS 4-5. Favorable outcomes showed no significant difference between the two groups (adjusted odds ratio [aOR]= 1.13, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.52-2.41, p=0.80). There were also no significant differences in 90-day mRS 0-2 (aOR= 1.65, 95% CI: 0.66-3.99, p=0.30), 90-day mortality (aOR= 1.14, 95% CI: 0.58-2.20, p=0.70), any ICH (aOR= 0.54, 95% CI: 0.28-1.00, p=0.06), and sICH (aOR= 0.70, 95% CI: 0.27-1.63, p = 0.40) between the groups. CONCLUSIONS: AIS patients with LVO undergoing MT with ASPECTS 2-3 had similar outcomes compared to ASPECTS 4-5.

Combining Force Fields and Neural Networks for an Accurate Representation of Chemically Diverse Molecular Interactions.

A key goal of molecular modeling is the accurate reproduction of the true quantum mechanical potential energy of arbitrary molecular ensembles with a tractable classical approximation. The challenges are that analytical expressions found in general purpose force fields struggle to faithfully represent the intermolecular quantum potential energy surface at close distances and in strong interaction regimes; that the more accurate neural network approximations do not capture crucial physics concepts, e.g., nonadditive inductive contributions and application of electric fields; and that the ultra-accurate narrowly targeted models have difficulty generalizing to the entire chemical space. We therefore designed a hybrid wide-coverage intermolecular interaction model consisting of an analytically polarizable force field combined with a short-range neural network correction for the total intermolecular interaction energy. Here, we describe the methodology and apply the model to accurately determine the properties of water, the free energy of solvation of neutral and charged molecules, and the binding free energy of ligands to proteins. The correction is subtyped for distinct chemical species to match the underlying force field, to segment and reduce the amount of quantum training data, and to increase accuracy and computational speed. For the systems considered, the hybrid ab initio parametrized Hamiltonian reproduces the two-body dimer quantum mechanics (QM) energies to within 0.03 kcal/mol and the nonadditive many-molecule contributions to within 2%. Simulations of molecular systems using this interaction model run at speeds of several nanoseconds per day.

Estimates of COVID-19 deaths in Mainland China after abandoning zero COVID policy.

BACKGROUND: China witnessed a surge of Omicron infections after abandoning 'zero COVID' strategies on 7 December 2022. The authorities report very sparse deaths based on very restricted criteria, but massive deaths are speculated. METHODS: We aimed to estimate the COVID-19 fatalities in Mainland China until summer 2023 using the experiences of Hong Kong and of South Korea in 2022 as prototypes. Both these locations experienced massive Omicron waves after having had very few SARS-CoV-2 infections during 2020-2021. We estimated age-stratified infection fatality rates (IFRs) in Hong Kong and South Korea during 2022 and extrapolated to the population age structure of Mainland China. We also accounted separately for deaths of residents in long-term care facilities in both Hong Kong and South Korea. RESULTS: Infection fatality rate estimates in non-elderly strata were modestly higher in Hong Kong than South Korea and projected 987,455 and 619,549 maximal COVID-19 deaths respectively, if the entire China population were infected. Expected COVID-19 deaths in Mainland China until summer 2023 ranged from 49,962 to 691,219 assuming 25-70% of the non-elderly population being infected and variable protection of elderly (from none to three-quarter reduction in fatalities). The main analysis (45% of non-elderly population infected and fatality impact among elderly reduced by half) estimated 152,886-249,094 COVID-19 deaths until summer 2023. Large uncertainties exist regarding potential changes in dominant variant, health system strain and impact on non-COVID-19 deaths. CONCLUSIONS: The most critical factor that can affect total COVID-19 fatalities in China is the extent to which the elderly can be protected.

Flaws and uncertainties in pandemic global excess death calculations.

Several teams have been publishing global estimates of excess deaths during the COVID-19 pandemic. Here, we examine potential flaws and underappreciated sources of uncertainty in global excess death calculations. Adjusting for changing population age structure is essential. Otherwise, excess deaths are markedly overestimated in countries with increasingly aging populations. Adjusting for changes in other high-risk indicators, such as residence in long-term facilities, may also make a difference. Death registration is highly incomplete in most countries; completeness corrections should allow for substantial uncertainty and consider that completeness may have changed during pandemic years. Excess death estimates have high sensitivity to modelling choice. Therefore different options should be considered and the full range of results should be shown for different choices of pre-pandemic reference periods and imposed models. Any post-modelling corrections in specific countries should be guided by pre-specified rules. Modelling of all-cause mortality (ACM) in countries that have ACM data and extrapolating these models to other countries is precarious; models may lack transportability. Existing global excess death estimates underestimate the overall uncertainty that is multiplicative across diverse sources of uncertainty. Informative excess death estimates require risk stratification, including age groups and ethnic/racial strata. Data to-date suggest a death deficit among children during the pandemic and marked socioeconomic differences in deaths, widening inequalities. Finally, causal explanations require great caution in disentangling SARS-CoV-2 deaths, indirect pandemic effects and effects from measures taken. We conclude that excess deaths have many uncertainties, but globally deaths from SARS-CoV-2 may be the minority of calculated excess deaths.

Excess death estimates from multiverse analysis in 2009-2021.

Excess death estimates have great value in public health, but they can be sensitive to analytical choices. Here we propose a multiverse analysis approach that considers all possible different time periods for defining the reference baseline and a range of 1 to 4 years for the projected time period for which excess deaths are calculated. We used data from the Human Mortality Database on 33 countries with detailed age-stratified death information on an annual basis during the period 2009-2021. The use of different time periods for reference baseline led to large variability in the absolute magnitude of the exact excess death estimates. However, the relative ranking of different countries compared to others for specific years remained largely unaltered. The relative ranking of different years for the specific country was also largely independent of baseline. Averaging across all possible analyses, distinct time patterns were discerned across different countries. Countries had declines between 2009 and 2019, but the steepness of the decline varied markedly. There were also large differences across countries on whether the COVID-19 pandemic years 2020-2021 resulted in an increase of excess deaths and by how much. Consideration of longer projected time windows resulted in substantial shrinking of the excess deaths in many, but not all countries. Multiverse analysis of excess deaths over long periods of interest can offer an approach that better accounts for the uncertainty in estimating expected mortality patterns, comparative mortality trends across different countries, and the nature of observed mortality peaks.

Modeling the Mechanical Microenvironment of Coiled Cerebral Aneurysms.

Successful occlusion of cerebral aneurysms using coil embolization is contingent upon stable thrombus formation, and the quality of the thrombus depends upon the biomechanical environment. The goal of this study was to investigate how coil embolization alters the mechanical micro-environment within the aneurysm dome. Inertialess particles were injected in three-dimensional, computational simulations of flow inside patient aneurysms using patient-specific boundary conditions. Coil embolization was simulated as a homogenous porous medium of known permeability and inertial constant. Lagrangian particle tracking was used to calculate the residence time and shear stress history for particles in the flow before and after treatment. The percentage of particles entering the aneurysm dome correlated with the neck surface area before and after treatment (pretreatment: R2 = 0.831, P < 0.001; post-treatment: R2 = 0.638, P < 0.001). There was an inverse relationship between the change in particles entering the dome and coil packing density (R2 = 0.600, P < 0.001). Following treatment, the particles with the longest residence times tended to remain within the dome even longer while accumulating lower shear stress. A significant correlation was observed between the treatment effect on residence time and the ratio of the neck surface area to porosity (R2 = 0.390, P = 0.007). The results of this study suggest that coil embolization triggers clot formation within the aneurysm dome via a low shear stress-mediated pathway. This hypothesis links independently observed findings from several benchtop and clinical studies, furthering our understanding of this treatment strategy.

A Novel Patient-Specific Computational Fluid Dynamics Study of the Activation of Primary Collateral Pathways in the Circle of Willis During Vasospasm.

The Circle of Willis (CoW) is a redundant network of blood vessels that perfuses the brain. The ringlike anatomy mitigates the negative effects of stroke by activating collateral pathways that help maintain physiological perfusion. Previous studies have investigated the activation of these pathways during embolic stroke and internal carotid artery occlusion. However, the role of collateral pathways during cerebral vasospasm-an involuntary constriction of blood vessels after subarachnoid hemorrhage-is not well-documented. This study presents a novel technique to create patient-specific computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations of the Circle of Willis before and during vasospasm. Computed tomographic angiography (CTA) scans are segmented to model the vasculature, and transcranial Doppler ultrasound (TCD) measurements of blood flow velocity are applied as boundary conditions. Bayesian analysis leverages information about the uncertainty in the measurements of vessel diameters and velocities to find an optimized parameter set that satisfies mass conservation and that is applied in the final simulation. With this optimized parameter set, the diameters, velocities, and flow rates fall within typical literature values. Virtual angiograms modeled using passive scalar transport agree closely with clinical angiography. A sensitivity analysis quantifies the changes in collateral flow rates with respect to changes in the inlet and outlet flow rates. This analysis can be applied in the future to a cohort of patients to investigate the relationship between the locations and severities of vasospasm, the patient-to-patient anatomical variability in the Circle of Willis, and the activation of collateral pathways.

Endothelial Responses to Curvature-Induced Flow Patterns in Engineered Cerebral Aneurysms.

Hemodynamic factors have long been associated with clinical outcomes in the treatment of cerebral aneurysms. Computational studies of cerebral aneurysm hemodynamics have provided valuable estimates of the mechanical environment experienced by the endothelium in both the parent vessel and aneurysmal dome walls and have correlated them with disease state. These computational-clinical studies have recently been correlated with the response of endothelial cells (EC) using either idealized or patient-specific models. Here, we present a robust workflow for generating anatomic-scale aneurysm models, establishing luminal cultures of ECs at physiological relevant flow profiles, and comparing EC responses to curvature mediated flow. We show that flow patterns induced by parent vessel curvature produce changes in wall shear stress (WSS) and wall shear stress gradients (WSSG) that are correlated with differences in cell morphology and cellular protein localization. Cells in higher WSS regions align better with the flow and display strong Notch1-extracellular domain (ECD) polarization, while, under low WSS, differences in WSSG due to curvature change were associated with less alignment and attenuation of Notch1-ECD polarization in ECs of the corresponding regions. These proof-of-concept results highlight the use of engineered cellularized aneurysm models for connecting computational fluid dynamics to the underlying endothelial biology that mediates disease.

Safety and efficacy of the Pipeline Flex embolization device with Shield Technology for the acute treatment of ruptured internal carotid artery pseudoaneurysms: a multi-institution case series.

OBJECTIVE: Ruptured blister, dissecting, and iatrogenic pseudoaneurysms are rare pathologies that pose significant challenges from a treatment standpoint. Endovascular treatment via flow diversion represents an increasingly popular option; however, drawbacks include the requirement for dual antiplatelet therapy and the potential for thromboembolic complications, particularly acute complications in the ruptured setting. The Pipeline Flex embolization device with Shield Technology (PED-Shield) offers reduced material thrombogenicity, which may aid in the treatment of ruptured internal carotid artery pseudoaneurysms. METHODS: The authors conducted a multi-institution, retrospective case series to determine the safety and efficacy of PED-Shield for the treatment of ruptured blister, dissecting, and iatrogenic pseudoaneurysms of the internal carotid artery. Clinical, radiographic, treatment, and outcomes data were collected. RESULTS: Thirty-three patients were included in the final analysis. Seventeen underwent placement of a single device, and 16 underwent placement of two devices. No thromboembolic complications occurred. Four patients were maintained on aspirin alone, and all others were treated with long-term dual antiplatelet therapy. Among patients with 3-month follow-up, 93.8% had a modified Rankin Scale score of 0-2. Complete occlusion at follow-up was observed in 82.6% of patients. CONCLUSIONS: PED-Shield represents a new option for the treatment of ruptured blister, dissecting, and iatrogenic pseudoaneurysms of the internal carotid artery. The reduced material thrombogenicity appeared to improve the safety of the PED-Shield device, as this series demonstrated no thromboembolic complications even among patients treated with only single antiplatelet therapy. The efficacy of PED-Shield reported in this series, particularly with placement of two devices, demonstrates its potential as a first-line treatment option for these pathologies.

A smartphone pupillometry tool for detection of acute large vessel occlusion.

OBJECTIVES: Pupillary light reflex (PLR) parameters can be used as quantitative biomarkers of neurological function. Since digital infrared pupillometry is expensive, we sought to examine alterations in PLR parameters using a smartphone quantitative pupillometry platform in subjects with acute ischemic stroke (AIS). MATERIALS AND METHODS: Patients were enrolled if they presented to the emergency department as a stroke code activation and had evidence of a large vessel occlusion (LVO) on computed tomography angiography. Controls were enrolled from hospital staff. A smartphone pupillometer was used in AIS patients with LVO pre-mechanical thrombectomy, immediately post-thrombectomy, and at 24 h post-thrombectomy. Clinical and demographic data were collected, along with the proprietary Neurological Pupil index (NPi) score from the NPi-200 digital infrared pupillometer. PLR parameters were compared using mean differences. The absolute and non-absolute inter-eye difference in each parameter for each subject were also analyzed by measuring 1 - (R:L) to determine alteration in the equilibrium between subject pupils. The NPi was analyzed for mean differences between cohorts. RESULTS: Healthy controls (n = 132) and AIS patients (n = 31) were enrolled. Significant differences were observed in PLR parameters for healthy subjects when compared to pre-thrombectomy subjects in both mean and absolute inter-eye differences after post hoc Bonferroni correction. The proprietary NPi score was not significantly different for all groups and comparisons. CONCLUSIONS: Significant alterations in the PLR were observed in AIS patients with LVO before thrombectomy, indicating the potential use of smartphone pupillometry for detection of LVO.

Risk of Early Versus Later Rebleeding From Dural Arteriovenous Fistulas With Cortical Venous Drainage.

BACKGROUND: Cranial dural arteriovenous fistulas with cortical venous drainage are rare lesions that can present with hemorrhage. A high rate of rebleeding in the early period following hemorrhage has been reported, but published long-term rates are much lower. No study has examined how risk of rebleeding changes over time. Our objective was to quantify the relative incidence of rebleeding in the early and later periods following hemorrhage. METHODS: Patients with dural arteriovenous fistula and cortical venous drainage presenting with hemorrhage were identified from the multinational CONDOR (Consortium for Dural Fistula Outcomes Research) database. Natural history follow-up was defined as time from hemorrhage to first treatment, rebleed, or last follow-up. Rebleeding in the first 2 weeks and first year were compared using incidence rate ratio and difference. RESULTS: Of 1077 patients, 250 met the inclusion criteria and had 95 cumulative person-years natural history follow-up. The overall annualized rebleed rate was 7.3% (95% CI, 3.2-14.5). The incidence rate of rebleeding in the first 2 weeks was 0.0011 per person-day; an early rebleed risk of 1.6% in the first 14 days (95% CI, 0.3-5.1). For the remainder of the first year, the incidence rate was 0.00015 per person-day; a rebleed rate of 5.3% (CI, 1.7-12.4) over 1 year. The incidence rate ratio was 7.3 (95% CI, 1.4-37.7; P, 0.026). CONCLUSIONS: The risk of rebleeding of a dural arteriovenous fistula with cortical venous drainage presenting with hemorrhage is increased in the first 2 weeks justifying early treatment. However, the magnitude of this increase may be considerably lower than previously thought. Treatment within 5 days was associated with a low rate of rebleeding and appears an appropriate timeframe.

International controlled study of revascularization and outcomes following COVID-positive mechanical thrombectomy.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Previous studies suggest that mechanisms and outcomes in patients with COVID-19-associated stroke differ from those in patients with non-COVID-19-associated strokes, but there is limited comparative evidence focusing on these populations. The aim of this study, therefore, was to determine if a significant association exists between COVID-19 status with revascularization and functional outcomes following thrombectomy for large vessel occlusion (LVO), after adjustment for potential confounding factors. METHODS: A cross-sectional, international multicenter retrospective study was conducted in consecutively admitted COVID-19 patients with concomitant acute LVO, compared to a control group without COVID-19. Data collected included age, gender, comorbidities, clinical characteristics, details of the involved vessels, procedural technique, and various outcomes. A multivariable-adjusted analysis was conducted. RESULTS: In this cohort of 697 patients with acute LVO, 302 had COVID-19 while 395 patients did not. There was a significant difference (p < 0.001) in the mean age (in years) and gender of patients, with younger patients and more males in the COVID-19 group. In terms of favorable revascularization (modified Thrombolysis in Cerebral Infarction [mTICI] grade 3), COVID-19 was associated with lower odds of complete revascularization (odds ratio 0.33, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.23-0.48; p < 0.001), which persisted on multivariable modeling with adjustment for other predictors (adjusted odds ratio 0.30, 95% CI 0.12-0.77; p = 0.012). Moreover, endovascular complications, in-hospital mortality, and length of hospital stay were significantly higher among COVID-19 patients (p < 0.001). CONCLUSION: COVID-19 was an independent predictor of incomplete revascularization and poor functional outcome in patients with stroke due to LVO. Furthermore, COVID-19 patients with LVO were more often younger and had higher morbidity/mortality rates.

Early ambulation after transfemoral diagnostic cerebral angiography: a pilot study.

BACKGROUND: A significant proportion of transfemoral cerebral angiography complications are related to the access site, with no clear consensus concerning the optimal closure technique. In this study, we examined the usefulness of a shortened closure protocol for transfemoral diagnostic cerebral angiography. METHODS: We performed a retrospective review of patients who underwent transfemoral (4Fr sheath) diagnostic cerebral angiography procedures at our institution. We included patients > 18 years old who underwent the shortened closure protocol to achieve hemostasis at the access site. The shortened protocol entailed the use of nonocclusive manual compression for 15 min followed by 2 h of bed rest, with additional 10-15 min of compression for new hematoma. We collected and analyzed the patients' demographics, use of antiplatelet and anticoagulation medications, sheath size, and others. RESULTS: The study cohort comprised 119 patients with a mean age was 54 years with (88%) females. Forty-one patients (34%) were on antiplatelet medications, with 12 (10%) on dual antiplatelet therapy (DAPT). Four patients (3%) (two on DAPT, one on Aspirin alone, and one was not on any antiplatelet medication) had access site hematoma that required additional compression. Subgroup analysis showed that within the DAPT, Aspirin alone, and no antiplatelet medications groups, (17%), (3%), and (1%) of patients developed access site hematoma, respectively. CONCLUSION: This pilot study demonstrates that our closure protocol for transfemoral angiograms is safe and effective. There was a trend toward higher access-site complications in patients on DAPT. Further studies are required to expand on and validate our results.

Comparison of pandemic excess mortality in 2020-2021 across different empirical calculations.

Different modeling approaches can be used to calculate excess deaths for the COVID-19 pandemic period. We compared 6 calculations of excess deaths (4 previously published [3 without age-adjustment] and two new ones that we performed with and without age-adjustment) for 2020-2021. With each approach, we calculated excess deaths metrics and the ratio R of excess deaths over recorded COVID-19 deaths. The main analysis focused on 33 high-income countries with weekly deaths in the Human Mortality Database (HMD at mortality.org) and reliable death registration. Secondary analyses compared calculations for other countries, whenever available. Across the 33 high-income countries, excess deaths were 2.0-2.8 million without age-adjustment, and 1.6-2.1 million with age-adjustment with large differences across countries. In our analyses after age-adjustment, 8 of 33 countries had no overall excess deaths; there was a death deficit in children; and 0.478 million (29.7%) of the excess deaths were in people <65 years old. In countries like France, Germany, Italy, and Spain excess death estimates differed 2 to 4-fold between highest and lowest figures. The R values' range exceeded 0.3 in all 33 countries. In 16 of 33 countries, the range of R exceeded 1. In 25 of 33 countries some calculations suggest R > 1 (excess deaths exceeding COVID-19 deaths) while others suggest R < 1 (excess deaths smaller than COVID-19 deaths). Inferred data from 4 evaluations for 42 countries and from 3 evaluations for another 98 countries are very tenuous. Estimates of excess deaths are analysis-dependent and age-adjustment is important to consider. Excess deaths may be lower than previously calculated.

Unsupervised determination of protein crystal structures.

We present a method for automatic solution of protein crystal structures. The method proceeds with a single initial model obtained, for instance, by molecular replacement (MR). If a good-quality search model is not available, as often is the case with MR of distant homologs, our method first can automatically screen a large pool of poorly placed models and single out promising candidates for further processing if there are any. We demonstrate its utility by solving a set of synthetic cases in the 2.9- to 3.45-Å resolution.

Solving the structure of Lgl2, a difficult blind test of unsupervised structure determination.

In the companion paper by Ufimtsev and Levitt [Ufimtsev IS, Levitt M (2019) Proc Natl Acad Sci USA, 10.1073/pnas.1821512116], we presented a method for unsupervised solution of protein crystal structures and demonstrated its utility by solving several test cases of known structure in the 2.9- to 3.45-Å resolution range. Here we apply this method to solve the crystal structure of a 966-amino acid construct of human lethal giant larvae protein (Lgl2) that resisted years of structure determination efforts, at 3.2-Å resolution. The structure was determined starting with a molecular replacement (MR) model identified by unsupervised refinement of a pool of 50 candidate MR models. This initial model had 2.8-Å RMSD from the solution. The solved structure was validated by comparison with a model subsequently derived from an alternative crystal form diffracting to higher resolution. This model could phase an anomalous difference Fourier map from an Hg derivative, and a single-wavelength anomalous dispersion phased density map made from these sites aligned with the refined structure.