Points to consider regarding the use and implementation of virtual controls in nonclinical general toxicology studies.

The replacement of a proportion of concurrent controls by virtual controls in nonclinical safety studies has gained traction over the last few years. This is supported by foundational work, encouraged by regulators, and aligned with societal expectations regarding the use of animals in research. This paper provides an overview of the points to consider for any institution on the verge of implementing this concept, with emphasis given on database creation, risks, and discipline-specific perspectives.

The partnership between statisticians and the Institutional Animal Care and Use Committee (IACUC).

In this tutorial we explore the valuable partnership between statisticians and Institutional Animal Care and Use Committees (IACUCs) in the context of animal research, shedding light on the critical role statisticians play in ensuring the ethical and scientifically rigorous use of animals in research. Pharmaceutical statisticians have increasingly become vital members of these committees, contributing expertise in study design, data analysis, and interpretation, and working more generally to facilitate the integration of good statistical practices into experimental procedures. We review the "3Rs" principles (Replacement, Reduction, and Refinement) which are the foundation for the humane use of animals in scientific research, and how statisticians can partner with IACUC to help ensure robust and reproducible research while adhering to the 3Rs principles. We also highlight emerging areas of interest, such as the use of virtual control groups.

Biology and postnatal development of organ systems of cynomolgus monkeys (Macaca fascicularis).

BACKGROUND: The cynomolgus macaque has become the most used non-human primate species in nonclinical safety assessment during the past decades. METHODS: This review summarizes the biological data and organ system development milestones of the cynomolgus macaque available in the literature. RESULTS: The cynomolgus macaque is born precocious relative to humans in some organ systems (e.g., nervous, skeletal, respiratory, and gastrointestinal). Organ systems develop, refine, and expand at different rates after birth. In general, the respiratory, gastrointestinal, renal, and hematopoietic systems mature at approximately 3 years of age. The female reproductive, cardiovascular and hepatobiliary systems mature at approximately 4 years of age. The central nervous, skeletal, immune, male reproductive, and endocrine systems complete their development at approximately 5 to 9 years of age. CONCLUSIONS: The cynomolgus macaque has no meaningful developmental differences in critical organ systems between 2 and 3 years of age for use in nonclinical safety assessment.

Characterizing Intra-Tumor and Inter-Tumor Variability of Immune Cell Infiltrates in Murine Syngeneic Tumors.

Murine tumors are indispensable model systems in preclinical immuno-oncology research. While immunologic heterogeneity is well-known to be an important factor that can influence treatment outcome, there is a severe paucity of data concerning the nature of this heterogeneity in murine tumor models. Using serial sectioning methodology combined with IHC analysis and whole-slide image analysis, the depth-dependent variation in immune-cell abundance in tumor specimens was investigated at single-cell resolution. Specifically, intra- and intertumor variability in cell density of nine immune-cell biomarkers was quantified in multiple murine tumor models. The analysis showed that intertumor variability was typically the dominant source of variation in measurements of immune-cell densities. Statistical power analysis revealed the effect of group size and variance in immune-cell density on the predictive power of detecting a statistically meaningful fold-change in immune-cell density. Intertumor variability in the ratio of immune-cell densities showed distinct patterns in select tumor models and revealed the existence of strong correlations between select biomarker pairs. Furthermore, the relative proportion of immune cells at different depths across tumor samples was preserved in some but not all tumor models, thereby revealing the existence of compositional heterogeneity. Taken together, these results reveal novel insights into the nature of immunologic heterogeneity, which is not accessible through typical omics approaches.

Toward implementing virtual control groups in nonclinical safety studies.

Historical data from control groups in animal toxicity studies is currently mainly used for comparative purposes to assess validity and robustness of study results. Due to the highly controlled environment in which the studies are performed and the homogeneity of the animal collectives it has been proposed to use the historical data for building so-called virtual control groups, which could replace partly or entirely the concurrent control. This would constitute a substantial contribution to the reduction of animal use in safety studies. Before the concept can be implemented, the prerequisites regarding data collection, curation and statistical evaluation together with a validation strategy need to be identified to avoid any impairment of the study outcome and subsequent consequences for human risk assessment. To further assess and develop the concept of virtual control groups the transatlantic think tank for toxicology (t4) sponsored a workshop with stakeholders from the pharmaceutical and chemical industry, academia, FDA, pharmaceutical, contract research organizations (CROs), and non-governmental organizations in Washington, which took place in March 2023. This report summarizes the current efforts of a European initiative to share, collect and curate animal control data in a centralized database and the first approaches to identify optimal matching criteria between virtual controls and the treatment arms of a study as well as first reflections about strategies for a qualification procedure and potential pitfalls of the concept.

Animal safety studies are usually performed with three groups of animals where increasing amounts of the test chemical are given to the animals and one control group where the animals do not receive the test chemical. The design of such studies, the characteristics of the animals, and the measured parameters are often very similar from study to study. Therefore, it has been suggested that measurement data from the control groups could be reused from study to study to lower the total number of animals per study. This could reduce animal use by up to 25% for such standardized studies. A workshop was held to discuss the pros and cons of such a concept and what would have to be done to implement it without threatening the reliability of the study outcome or the resulting human risk assessment.

Assessing the quality and making appropriate use of historical negative control data: A report of the International Workshop on Genotoxicity Testing (IWGT).

Historical negative control data (HCD) have played an increasingly important role in interpreting the results of genotoxicity tests. In particular, Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) genetic toxicology test guidelines recommend comparing responses produced by exposure to test substances with the distribution of HCD as one of three criteria for evaluating and interpreting study results (referred to herein as "Criterion C"). Because of the potential for inconsistency in how HCD are acquired, maintained, described, and used to interpret genotoxicity testing results, a workgroup of the International Workshops for Genotoxicity Testing was convened to provide recommendations on this crucial topic. The workgroup used example data sets from four in vivo tests, the Pig-a gene mutation assay, the erythrocyte-based micronucleus test, the transgenic rodent gene mutation assay, and the in vivo alkaline comet assay to illustrate how the quality of HCD can be evaluated. In addition, recommendations are offered on appropriate methods for evaluating HCD distributions. Recommendations of the workgroup are: When concurrent negative control data fulfill study acceptability criteria, they represent the most important comparator for judging whether a particular test substance induced a genotoxic effect. HCD can provide useful context for interpreting study results, but this requires supporting evidence that (i) HCD were generated appropriately, and (ii) their quality has been assessed and deemed sufficiently high for this purpose. HCD should be visualized before any study comparisons take place; graph(s) that show the degree to which HCD are stable over time are particularly useful. Qualitative and semi-quantitative assessments of HCD should also be supplemented with quantitative evaluations. Key factors in the assessment of HCD include: (i) the stability of HCD over time, and (ii) the degree to which inter-study variation explains the total variability observed. When animal-to-animal variation is the predominant source of variability, the relationship between responses in the study and an HCD-derived interval or upper bounds value (i.e., OECD Criterion C) can be used with a strong degree of confidence in contextualizing a particular study's results. When inter-study variation is the major source of variability, comparisons between study data and the HCD bounds are less useful, and consequentially, less emphasis should be placed on using HCD to contextualize a particular study's results. The workgroup findings add additional support for the use of HCD for data interpretation; but relative to most current OECD test guidelines, we recommend a more flexible application that takes into consideration HCD quality. The workgroup considered only commonly used in vivo tests, but it anticipates that the same principles will apply to other genotoxicity tests, including many in vitro tests.

Best practice considerations for nonclinical in vivo cardiovascular telemetry studies in non-rodent species: Delivering high quality QTc data to support ICH E14/S7B Q&As.

The ICH E14/S7B Questions and Answers (Q&As) guideline introduces the concept of a "double negative" nonclinical scenario (negative hERG assay and negative in vivo QTc study) to demonstrate that a drug does not produce a clinically relevant QT prolongation (i.e., no QT liability). This nonclinical "double negative" data package, along with negative Phase 1 clinical QTc data, may be sufficient to substitute for a clinical Thorough QT (TQT) study in some specific cases. While standalone GLP in vivo cardiovascular studies in non-rodent species are standard practice during nonclinical drug development for small molecule programs, a variety of approaches to the design, conduct, analysis and interpretation are utilized across pharmaceutical companies and contract research organizations (CROs) that may, in some cases, negatively impact the stringent sensitivity needed to fulfill the new Q&As. Subject matter experts from both Pharma and CROs have collaborated to recommend best practices for more robust nonclinical cardiovascular telemetry studies in non-rodent species, with input from clinical and regulatory experts. The aim was to increase consistency and harmonization across the industry and to ensure delivery of high quality nonclinical QTc data to meet the proposed sensitivities defined within the revised ICH E14/S7B Q&As guideline (Q&As 5.1 and 6.1). The detailed best practice recommendations presented here cover the design and execution of the safety pharmacology cardiovascular study, including optimal methods for acquiring, analyzing, reporting, and interpreting the resulting QTc and pharmacokinetic data to allow for direct comparison to clinical exposures and assessment of safety margin for QTc prolongation.

Study design for development of novel safety biomarkers of drug-induced liver injury by the translational safety biomarker pipeline (TransBioLine) consortium: a study protocol for a nested case-control study.

A lack of biomarkers that detect drug-induced liver injury (DILI) accurately continues to hinder early- and late-stage drug development and remains a challenge in clinical practice. The Innovative Medicines Initiative's TransBioLine consortium comprising academic and industry partners is developing a prospective repository of deeply phenotyped cases and controls with biological samples during liver injury progression to facilitate biomarker discovery, evaluation, validation and qualification.In a nested case-control design, patients who meet one of these criteria, alanine transaminase (ALT) ≥ 5 × the upper limit of normal (ULN), alkaline phosphatase ≥ 2 × ULN or ALT ≥ 3 ULN with total bilirubin > 2 × ULN, are enrolled. After completed clinical investigations, Roussel Uclaf Causality Assessment and expert panel review are used to adjudicate episodes as DILI or alternative liver diseases (acute non-DILI controls). Two blood samples are taken: at recruitment and follow-up. Sample size is as follows: 300 cases of DILI and 130 acute non-DILI controls. Additional cross-sectional cohorts (1 visit) are as follows: Healthy volunteers (n = 120), controls with chronic alcohol-related or non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (n = 100 each) and patients with psoriasis or rheumatoid arthritis (n = 100, 50 treated with methotrexate) are enrolled. Candidate biomarkers prioritised for evaluation include osteopontin, glutamate dehydrogenase, cytokeratin-18 (full length and caspase cleaved), macrophage-colony-stimulating factor 1 receptor and high mobility group protein B1 as well as bile acids, sphingolipids and microRNAs. The TransBioLine project is enabling biomarker discovery and validation that could improve detection, diagnostic accuracy and prognostication of DILI in premarketing clinical trials and for clinical healthcare application.

Development and validation of an in vitro micronucleus assay platform in TK6 cells.

The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) has recently adopted Test Guideline 487 (TG487) for conducting the in vitro micronucleus (MNvit) assay. The purpose of this study is to evaluate and validate treatment conditions for the use of p53 competent TK6 human lymphoblastoid cells in a TG487 compliant MNvit assay. The ten reference compounds suggested in TG487 (mitomycin C, cytosine arabinoside, cyclophosphamide, benzo-a-pyrene, vinblastine sulphate, colchicine, sodium chloride, nalidixic acid and di(2-ethylhexyl)phthalate and pyrene) and noscapine hydrochloride were chosen for this study. In order to optimize the micronucleus response after treatment with some positive substances, we extended the recovery time after pulse treatment from 2 cell cycles recommended in TG487 to 3 cell cycles for untreated cells (40h). Each compound was tested in at least one of four exposure conditions: a 4h exposure followed by a 40h recovery, a 4h exposure followed by a 24h recovery, a 4h exposure in the presence of an exogenous metabolic activation system followed by a 40h recovery period, and a 27h continuous direct treatment. Results show that the direct acting clastogens, clastogens requiring metabolic activation and aneugens caused a robust increase in micronuclei in at least one test condition whereas the negative compounds did not induce micronuclei. The negative control cultures exhibited reproducibly low and consistent micronucleus frequencies ranging from 0.4 to 1.8% (0.8±0.3% average and standard deviation). Furthermore, extending the recovery period from 24h to 40h produced a 2-fold higher micronucleus frequency after a 4h pulse treatment with mitomycin C. In summary, the protocol described in this study in TK6 cells produced the expected result with model compounds and should be suitable for performing the MNvit assay in accordance with guideline TG487.

Age- and sex-related changes in body weights and clinical pathology analytes in cynomolgus monkeys (Macaca Fascicularis) of Mauritius origin.

BACKGROUND: Clinical pathology and body weight information for the cynomolgus monkey in the literature is primarily derived from a small number of animals with limited age ranges, varying geographic origins, and mixed genders. OBJECTIVES: This study aimed to summarize the age- and sex-related changes in clinical pathology analytes and body weights in cynomolgus monkeys of Mauritian origin. METHODS: Pre-study age and body weight data were reviewed in 1819 animals, and pre-study hematologic, coagulation, and serum biochemical analytes were reviewed in 1664 animals. RESULTS: Body weights were statistically higher (P < 0.01) in males than females in all age groups (2-10 years). These measurements became prominent after 4 years of age and peaked at 7 to 8 years of age in both sexes. Sex-related differences were noted in reticulocyte (RETIC) counts, creatinine, cholesterol, and triglyceride concentrations, and alkaline phosphatase (ALP) and gamma-glutamyl transferase (GGT) activities. Age-related differences were noted in RETIC and lymphocyte counts, creatinine, triglyceride, phosphorus, and globulin concentrations, and ALP and GGT activities. The youngest (2 to <3 year) age group had the fewest number of clinical pathologic analyte differences including ALP and GGT activity differences which occurred in all age groups from 2 to 10 years; they also had age-related lower globulin concentrations. There were no age- or sex-related differences in coagulation measurands. CONCLUSIONS: Sexual dimorphism in body weight was apparent for all ages from 2 to 10 years of age. The only difference in clinical pathology analytes unique to the 2 to <3 years of age group were age-related lower globulin levels.

Characterization of a high throughput human stem cell cardiomyocyte assay to predict drug-induced changes in clinical electrocardiogram parameters.

Human induced pluripotent stem cell derived cardiomyocytes (hIPSC-CM's) play an increasingly important role in the safety profiling of candidate drugs. For such models to have utility a clear understanding of clinical translation is required. In the present study we examined the ability of our hIPSC-CM model to predict the clinically observed effects of a diverse set of compounds on several electrocardiogram endpoints, including changes in QT and QRS intervals. To achieve this, compounds were profiled in a novel high throughput voltage-sensitive dye platform. Measurements were taken acutely (30 min) and chronically (24 h) to ensure that responses from compounds with slow onset kinetics or that affected surface ion channel expression would be captured. In addition, to avoid issues associated with changes in free drug levels due to protein binding, assays were run in serum free conditions. Changes in hIPSC-CM threshold APD90 values correlated with compound plasma exposures that produced a +10 ms change in clinical QTc (Pearson r2 = 0.80). In addition, randomForest modeling showed high predictivity in defining TdP risk (AUROC value = 0.938). Risk associated with QRS prolongation correlated with an increase in action potential rise-time (AUROC value = 0.982). The in-depth understanding of the clinical translatability of our hIPSC-CM model positions this assay to play a key role in defining cardiac risk early in drug development. Moreover, the ability to perform longer term studies enables the detection of compounds that may not be highlighted by more acute assay formats, such as inhibitors of hERG trafficking.

Reprint of: Nonclinical species sensitivity to convulsions: An IQ DruSafe consortium working group initiative.

Clinical development of compounds that carry a convulsion liability is typically limited by safety margins based on the most sensitive nonclinical species. To better understand differences in sensitivity to drug-induced convulsion of commonly used preclinical species, a survey was distributed amongst pharmaceutical companies through an IQ consortium (International Consortium for Innovation and Quality in Pharmaceutical Development) resulting in convulsion-related data on 80 unique compounds from 11 companies. The lowest free drug plasma concentration at which convulsions were observed and the no observed effect level for convulsions were compared between species to determine their relative sensitivity. Additionally, data were collected on other endpoints including use of electroencephalography, premonitory signs, convulsion type, the reason why development was stopped, and the highest development phase reached. The key outcomes were: (1) the dog was most often determined to be the most sensitive species by both non-exposure and exposure-based analyses, (2) there was not a clear sensitivity ranking of other species (NHP, rat and mouse), (3) CNS symptoms were frequently present at exposures that were not associated with convulsions, but no single reliable premonitory indicator of convulsion was identified, and (4) the lack of convulsions in the compounds that were tested in humans in this dataset may suggest that convulsion liability is well mitigated via current drug development strategies.

Nonclinical species sensitivity to convulsions: An IQ DruSafe consortium working group initiative.

Clinical development of compounds that carry a convulsion liability is typically limited by safety margins based on the most sensitive nonclinical species. To better understand differences in sensitivity to drug-induced convulsion of commonly used nonclinical species, a survey was distributed amongst pharmaceutical companies through an IQ consortium (International Consortium for Innovation and Quality in Pharmaceutical Development) resulting in convulsion-related data on 80 unique compounds from 11 companies. The lowest free drug plasma concentration at which convulsions were observed and the no observed effect level for convulsions were compared between species to determine their relative sensitivity. Additionally, data were collected on other endpoints including use of electroencephalography, premonitory signs, convulsion type, the reason why development was stopped, and the highest development phase reached. The key outcomes were: (1) the dog was most often determined to be the most sensitive species by both non-exposure and exposure-based analyses, (2) there was not a clear sensitivity ranking of other species (NHP, rat and mouse), (3) CNS symptoms were frequently present at exposures that were not associated with convulsions, but no single reliable premonitory indicator of convulsion was identified, and (4) the lack of convulsions when compounds were tested in humans in this dataset may suggest that convulsion liability is well mitigated via current drug development strategies.

Cross-company evaluation of the human lymphocyte activation assay.

Nonclinical immunotoxicity evaluation is an important component of safety assessment for pharmaceuticals. One in vitro assay that can be applied in a weight of evidence assessment is the human lymphocyte activation (HuLA) assay, an antigen recall assay, similar in many respects to the in vivo T-cell-dependent antibody response (TDAR) in that cooperation of multiple immune cell types are needed to produce responses. This assay uses human cells and is more amenable than the TDAR to compound ranking and mechanistic studies. The HuLA assay requires less time and drug than TDAR assays, uses a relevant antigen (influenza), reflects a human immune response, and applies principles of the 3Rs to non-clinical safety assessment. Peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMC) from flu-immunized donors are re-stimulated with flu-vaccine in the presence of test articles, and proliferation is measured. Published data demonstrate the applicability of the HuLA assay, but it has not been evaluated for reproducibility across testing sites. To evaluate assay reproducibility, scientists from a consortium of institutions conducted the assay in parallel, using a common pool of donor PBMC, influenza vaccine, and known immunosuppressant compounds (cyclosporine A and mycophenolic acid). The HuLA assay was highly reproducible in identification of inhibition of antigen-specific responses, and there was significant agreement across testing sites in the half maximal inhibitory concentration (IC50) values. Intra-site variability was the largest contributor to the variability observed within the assay. The HuLA assay was demonstrated to be ideally suited to comparing multiple compounds (i.e. compound ranking or benchmarking) within the same assay. Overall, the data reported herein support the HuLA assay as a useful tool in mechanistic evaluations of antigen-specific immune responses.

Publisher Correction: Cross-site and cross-platform variability of automated patch clamp assessments of drug effects on human cardiac currents in recombinant cells.

An amendment to this paper has been published and can be accessed via a link at the top of the paper.

Cross-site and cross-platform variability of automated patch clamp assessments of drug effects on human cardiac currents in recombinant cells.

Automated patch clamp (APC) instruments enable efficient evaluation of electrophysiologic effects of drugs on human cardiac currents in heterologous expression systems. Differences in experimental protocols, instruments, and dissimilar site procedures affect the variability of IC50 values characterizing drug block potency. This impacts the utility of APC platforms for assessing a drug's cardiac safety margin. We determined variability of APC data from multiple sites that measured blocking potency of 12 blinded drugs (with different levels of proarrhythmic risk) against four human cardiac currents (hERG [IKr], hCav1.2 [L-Type ICa], peak hNav1.5, [Peak INa], late hNav1.5 [Late INa]) with recommended protocols (to minimize variance) using five APC platforms across 17 sites. IC50 variability (25/75 percentiles) differed for drugs and currents (e.g., 10.4-fold for dofetilide block of hERG current and 4-fold for mexiletine block of hNav1.5 current). Within-platform variance predominated for 4 of 12 hERG blocking drugs and 4 of 6 hNav1.5 blocking drugs. hERG and hNav1.5 block. Bland-Altman plots depicted varying agreement across APC platforms. A follow-up survey suggested multiple sources of experimental variability that could be further minimized by stricter adherence to standard protocols. Adoption of best practices would ensure less variable APC datasets and improved safety margins and proarrhythmic risk assessments.

Preclinical to Clinical Translation of Hemodynamic Effects in Cardiovascular Safety Pharmacology Studies.

Cardiovascular (CV) safety-related attrition is an important contributor to the loss of promising drug candidates during development. CV safety pharmacology studies are conducted to identify these safety effects. Understanding translation of CV endpoints (specifically, heart rate [HR], and blood pressure [BP]) across preclinical animal models and to the clinic is critical in developing a robust CV derisking strategy. To this end, we investigated translation of HR and BP endpoints using data from 83 compounds that were tested in telemetry studies in rat and large animal (LA; dog or monkey) and 79 compounds that were tested in LA telemetry studies and human phase I clinical trials. Sensitivity, specificity as well as predictive values were calculated for rat to LA model comparison and for LA to human studies comparison. The rat CV model showed good concordance (sensitivity = 84% and specificity = 71%) for LA BP and HR changes. Similarly, LA CV measures of HR and BP showed good concordance (sensitivity = 78% and specificity = 79%) to clinical changes. The CV effects generally occurred within 0.3-3× free plasma concentration across species. Directionality of BP and HR change was conserved between LA to humans. However, for rat to LA comparisons the directionality of change was opposite for 23%-26% compounds. In conclusion, these data establish the translation of HR and BP from preclinical to clinical studies and emphasize the importance of preclinical animal models in the examination of CV safety of drugs.

Assessment of serum bile acid profiles as biomarkers of liver injury and liver disease in humans.

To assess the potential of individual bile acids (IBA) and their profiles as mechanistic biomarkers of liver injury for humans in real world situations, we interrogated samples collected under minimum controlled conditions (ie subjects were not fasted). Total bile acids (TBA) have been considered to be biomarkers of liver injury for decades, and more recently, monitoring of IBA has been proposed for differentiation of variety of etiologies of liver injury. We established a LC-MS/MS methodology to analyze nine IBA, generated reference ranges, and examined effects of age, gender, and ethnicity for each IBA. Furthermore, we evaluated the ability of IBA and their profiles to detect hepatic injury in subjects with a broad range of liver impairments. To date, our study utilized the largest total cohort of samples (N = 645) that were divided into 2 groups, healthy or liver impaired, to evaluate IBA as biomarkers. The TBA serum levels in the Asian ethnic group trended higher when compared to other ethnic groups, and the serum concentrations of IBA, such as glycocholic acid (GCA), glycochenodeoxycholic acid (GCDCA), chenodeoxycholic acid (CDCA), and taurochenoxycholic acid (TCDCA) were significantly increased. To our knowledge, this report is the first to describe ethnic differences in serum concentrations of IBAs. In patients with hepatic impairments, with the exception of deoxycholic acid (DCA), the concentrations of IBAs were significantly elevated when compared with healthy subjects. The conjugated bile acids displayed greater differences between healthy subjects and subjects with hepatic impairments than non-conjugated bile acids. Furthermore, the subjects with hepatic impairments exhibited distinct profiles (signatures) of IBAs that clustered subjects according the nature of their liver impairments. Although additional studies are needed, our data suggested that the analysis of IBA has the potential to become useful for differentiation of various forms of liver injury.

Seizure anticipation, states of consciousness and marginal predictability in temporal lobe epilepsy.

PURPOSE: It has recently been shown that differences between the marginal predictability associated with scalp electrodes adjacent to and remote from the site of a seizure focus are able to distinguish between epochs temporally distant from and just prior to (within about 20 min) the onset of a seizure in patients with temporal lobe epilepsy. The purpose of this paper is to show that these differences of marginal predictability intervals are independent of the state of consciousness of the patient. METHODS: We have studied a data set encompassing 33 preictal epochs (within 1 h prior to a seizure) and 61 interictal epochs (defined as at least 1 h away from any seizure) from 14 patients. Each 30 s interval of each epoch was categorized into one of seven different states of consciousness. Statistical models were used to search for relationships (in aggregated data) between the values of differences of marginal predictabilities and state of consciousness. RESULTS: It was not possible to reject the null hypothesis of no relationship between differences of marginal predictabilities and state of consciousness. CONCLUSIONS: The values of the differences between marginal predictabilities on aggregated data are apparently insensitive to the state of consciousness. This conclusion, coupled with the fact that the differences between marginal predictabilities do depend on time to seizure, suggests the potential utility of these measures as the basis for ambulatory, non-invasive methods of seizure anticipation. However, the development of a practical non-invasive method for seizure anticipation requires further extensive study on disaggregated data from individual patients.

Statistical power analysis of cardiovascular safety pharmacology studies in conscious rats.

UNLABELLED: Cardiovascular (CV) toxicity and related attrition are a major challenge for novel therapeutic entities and identifying CV liability early is critical for effective derisking. CV safety pharmacology studies in rats are a valuable tool for early investigation of CV risk. Thorough understanding of data analysis techniques and statistical power of these studies is currently lacking and is imperative for enabling sound decision-making. METHODS: Data from 24 crossover and 12 parallel design CV telemetry rat studies were used for statistical power calculations. Average values of telemetry parameters (heart rate, blood pressure, body temperature, and activity) were logged every 60s (from 1h predose to 24h post-dose) and reduced to 15min mean values. These data were subsequently binned into super intervals for statistical analysis. A repeated measure analysis of variance was used for statistical analysis of crossover studies and a repeated measure analysis of covariance was used for parallel studies. Statistical power analysis was performed to generate power curves and establish relationships between detectable CV (blood pressure and heart rate) changes and statistical power. Additionally, data from a crossover CV study with phentolamine at 4, 20 and 100mg/kg are reported as a representative example of data analysis methods. RESULTS: Phentolamine produced a CV profile characteristic of alpha adrenergic receptor antagonism, evidenced by a dose-dependent decrease in blood pressure and reflex tachycardia. Detectable blood pressure changes at 80% statistical power for crossover studies (n=8) were 4-5mmHg. For parallel studies (n=8), detectable changes at 80% power were 6-7mmHg. Detectable heart rate changes for both study designs were 20-22bpm. DISCUSSION: Based on our results, the conscious rat CV model is a sensitive tool to detect and mitigate CV risk in early safety studies. Furthermore, these results will enable informed selection of appropriate models and study design for early stage CV studies.